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mth123
10-16-2011, 08:50 AM
As we start ranking the prospects, I thought I'd start a thread to discuss possibly the most overlooked prospect in the Reds system. Brodie Greene had an overall line of .287/.343/.433/.775 with 14 HR (42 XBH) and 38 SB with 9 CS. These numbers were mostly accumulated in Bakersfield, so its hard to judge based solely on them. FWIW, he's off to a fast start in the AFL with 8 hits in 23 AB including a walk and a HR for a small sample OPS of .853.

Greene was a fourth round pick from Texas A&M in 2010 and went straight to A+ and never played in Dayton. I think he gets less discussion on the minor league board since so many locals haven't really seen him. He's played all over the diamond with games at 2B, SS and 3B and all three OF spots. Everybody has seen Chris Valaika and Todd Frazier, there is some buzz on the board around Henry Rodriguez and Didi Gregorious and some special things being done at the lower levels by Billy Hamilton and Ronald Torreyes, so Greene and fellow high round 2010 MI pick Devin Lohman get lost in the shuffle. With 2012 having the Reds with unproven Zach Cozart at SS and Brandon Phillips possibly in his final season at 2B, the MI depth is crucial going forward. I think that the Reds sending him to the AFL implies that he's highly regarded.

So, what is the projection for Greene? Is his defense legit? Can he play SS in the big leagues? If not, could he handle 2B? Is he more of a super utility type or is he simply moving around because he can handle it and the other guys in the crowd need more development at their probable positions or is his glove weak and the team is simply trying to find a spot for him? What are his offensive tools? Does he project to have a little pop as his .433 Slugging Percentage suggests or is that a Bakersfield mirage? Is he projected to make contact as he goes up the ladder or is he just more advanced than A+ competitiion as a 4 year college guy with some polish?

Here is a link to the Scouting report that Mario-Rijo posted when he was drafted, but I'd like some more opinions from guys closer to the minor league system or guys who've seen him play a few times (or anyone else really).

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2199530&postcount=5

Any information that anyone has would be much appreciated.

lollipopcurve
10-16-2011, 09:49 AM
I don't have any special insight, but I have liked Greene as a utility guy since his first year in pro ball. No doubt the Cal League inflated his SLG, but the number was still encouraging in terms of how well he might hit in GAB someday (a Cal League-like place to play).

I will say that Jocketty has a history (from STL) of installing gritty, unspectacular players at 2B. Greene fits that profile, so I would not be all that surprised if he gets a shot at that job in 2013 or 14, if Phillips is not extended.

mth123
10-16-2011, 10:50 AM
I don't have any special insight, but I have liked Greene as a utility guy since his first year in pro ball. No doubt the Cal League inflated his SLG, but the number was still encouraging in terms of how well he might hit in GAB someday (a Cal League-like place to play).

I will say that Jocketty has a history (from STL) of installing gritty, unspectacular players at 2B. Greene fits that profile, so I would not be all that surprised if he gets a shot at that job in 2013 or 14, if Phillips is not extended.

Based on very little information and not much more than a hunch, I think I agree with you. There have been rumblings about Henry Rodriguez' heart and head and the reports about his defense have been varied from one end of the spectrum to the other. I just get this Felipe Lopez vibe about him. At this point I'm wondering if Greene isn't a better alternative.

Its all pretty thin, but Greene has my vote for this year's sleeper prospect and I'm probably going to fit him somewhere in the 15 to 20 range on my list (of course that was a jinx, or at least a big misread, last year when I put Kris Negron at 14).

lollipopcurve
10-16-2011, 11:04 AM
Its all pretty thin, but Greene has my vote for this year's sleeper prospect and I'm probably going to fit him somewhere in the 15 to 20 range on my list (of course that was a jinx, or at least a big misread, last year when I put Kris Negron at 14).

I agree with you. I had the same read on Negron. It will be interesting to see if they keep him on the 40-man this offseason.

mdccclxix
10-17-2011, 10:32 AM
With Negron, does anyone think that him playing about 6 positions on defense could have hurt his full season debut in AAA? I do. He could recover next year, for sure, if they play him only at SS or 2b.

dougdirt
10-17-2011, 01:17 PM
With Negron, does anyone think that him playing about 6 positions on defense could have hurt his full season debut in AAA? I do. He could recover next year, for sure, if they play him only at SS or 2b.

A few things could be at fault. He really lost his plate approach. His walk rate fell apart, at a far and away career low of 4.7%. His strikeout rate went up, but I think those two go hand in hand there. He was far more aggressive this season. His BABIP dropped off about 60 points from last year to this year.

I think that the change in approach could have led to all three things. If he is able to find his approach in 2012, I think he could return to the guy he was in Carolina.

icehole3
10-17-2011, 05:34 PM
saw 3 games when Greene was at A&M, he reminded me of Cozart, he was the heart and soul of that team, batted 3rd played SS, his arm was solid he got to balls he shouldve gotten to, Im was impressed. At the plate he slammed the ball into the gaps, he looked good IMO, if you look back at my post back when he was drafted I said the same thing

mth123
10-17-2011, 06:54 PM
saw 3 games when Greene was at A&M, he reminded me of Cozart, he was the heart and soul of that team, batted 3rd played SS, his arm was solid he got to balls he shouldve gotten to, Im was impressed. At the plate he slammed the ball into the gaps, he looked good IMO, if you look back at my post back when he was drafted I said the same thing

Thanks for the observation.:thumbup:

The DARK
10-17-2011, 07:11 PM
Our upper-level system (A+ to AAA) seems to be filled to the brim with low-upside middle infield prospect depth. Cozart, Valaika, H-Rod, Gregorious, Greene, Lohman, and up until recently Negron all look like future major leaguers, but they all seem like more or less the same player: Solid defense, some pop, decent average, all profiling somewhere between utility infielder and MLB average starters, with a good chance to reach it. I like Greene, but he's low on the totem pole and has quite a lot of company to distinguish himself from.

icehole3
10-18-2011, 04:19 AM
you dont have to worry about Greene not leaving every ounce of energy and effort on the field, he will be a leader, at A&M he was a pure leader and plays the game hard

mth123
11-06-2011, 11:17 AM
This from Fangraph's Nov 4 notes


Batting Leaderboard
Here is the SCOUT batting leaderboard for the Arizona Fall League (AFL). SCOUT represents an attempt to derive something meaningful from small samples and is the average of a player’s standard deviations from the AFL mean in three important (and regressed) stats: walk rate, strikeout rate, and home-run rate....

...Notes
• Newest to the top-10 AFL batting leaderboard is Cincinnati middle-infield prospect Brodie Greene. Greene, 24, has made his way up the charts predominantly by virtue of his strikeout prevention. Greene made the bulk of his appearances in 2011 in the the High-A California League — a league for which he skewed old.

See this link for the leaderboard and the article, but Greene is 9th by this metric.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/offseason-notes-for-november-4th/

There is a link insde the article about the metric which predicted that Kris Negron's 2010 AFL was probably over rated (and looks to be correct at this point). BTW, Brad Boxberger is rated at the top of the pitching board for this metric.

mth123
11-13-2011, 05:43 AM
In 80+ PAs now in the AFL, Greene's line is .301/.386/.466/.851. I have to wonder if the Red are going to use the 100+ PAs in the AFL as a substitute for AA for Greene. Greene is 24 already and with Didi and H-Rod in the middle IF at AA and Chris Valaika a little iffy for the start of the season, maybe Greene jumping to AAA makes some sense.

The Reds need to have some viable alternatives getting ready for the MI in 2012. SS will be manned by a promising, but unproven kid and 2B may be an open spot in need of options for 2013. Given his age, nice season in A+, his positive performance in the AFL and the Reds' situation in the majors, I think it makes sense to skip a level and start Greene off in AAA. Both Greene and Negron can play a lot of positions and with Valiaka iffy and Mike Griffin and Eric Eyman gone, Greene at AAA in 2012 makes a lot of sense to me.

lollipopcurve
11-13-2011, 10:13 AM
Greene is 24 already and with Didi and H-Rod in the middle IF at AA and Chris Valaika a little iffy for the start of the season, maybe Greene jumping to AAA makes some sense.

You may be right, but I think HRod 's performance at AA in 2011 makes him an equally good candidate for moving to Louisville. The age difference, as you point out, could be the tiebreaker.

batsfan
11-13-2011, 12:12 PM
In 80+ PAs now in the AFL, Greene's line is .301/.386/.466/.851. I have to wonder if the Red are going to use the 100+ PAs in the AFL as a substitute for AA for Greene. Greene is 24 already and with Didi and H-Rod in the middle IF at AA and Chris Valaika a little iffy for the start of the season, maybe Greene jumping to AAA makes some sense.

The Reds need to have some viable alternatives getting ready for the MI in 2012. SS will be manned by a promising, but unproven kid and 2B may be an open spot in need of options for 2013. Given his age, nice season in A+, his positive performance in the AFL and the Reds' situation in the majors, I think it makes sense to skip a level and start Greene off in AAA. Both Greene and Negron can play a lot of positions and with Valiaka iffy and Mike Griffin and Eric Eyman gone, Greene at AAA in 2012 makes a lot of sense to me.

Can Greene play SS? Valaika should be back by opening day, and he will play second for the bats. Negron should not be a starter, so H-Rod's ability to play SS is a huge advantage.

dougdirt
11-13-2011, 12:19 PM
Can Greene play SS? Valaika should be back by opening day, and he will play second for the bats. Negron should not be a starter, so H-Rod's ability to play SS is a huge advantage.

Valaika is a better shortstop then H-Rod is.

lollipopcurve
11-13-2011, 12:53 PM
Greene played SS at Texas A & M, but the Reds have seen him as a utility guy from the beginning. An interesting question is how Greene and HRod compare defensively. I have no idea.

RED VAN HOT
11-13-2011, 01:39 PM
If usage means anything, Greene has played about as much SS as 2B. HRod has been at 2B almost exclusively. If the Reds sign BP to a long term deal, then, IMO, HRod is blocked and Greene becomes more valuable to the Reds because of his versatility.

Admittedly, Greene is one of my favorites minor league players. He can play anywhere except catcher, and has some power and base stealing ability. Also, he appears to be one of those tough nosed, good character guys that always seems to show up on winning teams.

As a senior sign, Greene started at A+ and held his own, so he has already skipped at least one level. Even counting AFL as AA, he will have only about half the PA's at that level as HRod. It seems like a stretch to start Greene in AAA.

Scrap Irony
11-13-2011, 05:38 PM
There's nothing wrong with a half-season of AA, then, if he dominates, a move to AAA or the majors. Phillips will be in the lineup all season unless the Reds stink. Then, a competition between Ryan Freel-- errr, I man, Brodie Greene-- and Felipe Lopez-- dangit, I mean Henry Rodriguez-- would be just fine for an open spot.

You simply don't know what could happen in that year as well:
Cincinnati might find a SS and move Cozart to 2B.
Torreyes might challenge the .400 mark in A+ Bakersfield after growing three inches and adding 40 pounds in the off-season.
Hamilton might continue to find his inner Tim Raines rather than his inner Maury Wills and force the team to play him.
Ian Kinsler is a free agent and Castellini might decide to add a premier offensive free agent.

icehole3
11-13-2011, 06:34 PM
Greene has more tools than Freel

mth123
11-21-2011, 06:13 AM
Greene finsihed up his AFL stint at .288/.374/.475/.849 with 4 HR in 80 ABs. He had 10 BBs. He can play all over the diamond and seems to have put himself in the picture for a shot at the major leagues at some point. He can play acceptably at 2B, SS and 3B as well as in the OF. He has less power than Todd Frazier, who profiles as a guy for a similar role, but Greene seems to be a better defender at the up the middle spots. A nice showing in an advanced league like the AFL has to help his stock.

I'd like to see the Reds find Greene an everyday role playing 2B somewhere in 2012. Either start H-Rod in AAA with Greene playing 2B in AA or have Greene skip AA and let him play 2B in AAA. I prefer Greene in Louisville given his age and showing in the AFL. H-Rod can start in AA and hopefully show some maturity and push for a move up. Those two look like the guys who will compete to replace Brandon Phillips in 2013.

I'm bullish on Greene.

JaxRed
11-21-2011, 08:16 AM
When I was in Az watching fall ball, Greene made a sensational play that didn't count.... someone hit a scorching grounder, and he dove behind 2nd to snag it and got up and threw the runner out. People were oohing and ahhing all over the ballpark. (but the catcher had interfered and it all was all for naught).

mace
11-21-2011, 11:20 AM
When I was in Az watching fall ball, Greene made a sensational play that didn't count.... someone hit a scorching grounder, and he dove behind 2nd to snag it and got up and threw the runner out. People were oohing and ahhing all over the ballpark. (but the catcher had interfered and it all was all for naught).

That's interesting, because I saw one Lynchburg game in 2010 and Greene made a fantastic play to throw a guy out from the 5.5 hole. I sort of dismissed it because Greene didn't have that kind of reputation and I figured I just overrated the play; but it was a ball on which I thought he had no chance to throw the guy out.