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camisadelgolf
10-17-2011, 05:32 PM
Who is Redszone's #3 prospect?

#1 C Devin Mesoraco
#2 1B/OF Yonder Alonso

redsfandan
10-17-2011, 05:41 PM
I think some might be weighing upside a little too much. Cozart doesn't have the highest upside. But, if all I cared about was upside then Yorman would be in my top 5 or maybe even top 3. Floor matters to me as well and Cozart has a medium to high floor with no glaring problems. There's too many questions about Hamilton for him to rank #3. And while Grandal is good he has to improve his defense. That's not a problem for Cozart. He'll be the first Reds shortstop in years that can provide both plus defense AND plus offense. That does it for me.

cinreds21
10-17-2011, 05:46 PM
I don't want to vote for Yas here but I will.

The DARK
10-17-2011, 06:47 PM
I think that Grandal should be rated higher than Cozart here. Grandal plays a more important position, has higher upside with an excellent probability of reaching it, is a switch hitter, and is coming off an even better season than Cozart. The only thing that Cozart has on him is higher-level experience and defensive abilities, and Grandal is in the process of closing that gap.

Our farm system is looking quite strong right now in terms of position players. We've got future starters at every position, and a few potential stars in the making as well; making a trade seems more opportune than ever. With the exception of necessary upper-level components (Mesoraco and Cozart), any of these guys could reasonably be traded.

lollipopcurve
10-17-2011, 07:49 PM
Cozart -- legit SS with some power and speed. That's pretty rare.

bubbachunk
10-17-2011, 08:53 PM
Grandal, running away

crazybob60
10-17-2011, 10:29 PM
I voted Cozart at number 2 and I will vote him as my number 3 (if cozart would have been at number 2, then I would have put Alonso here)

dougdirt
10-17-2011, 10:53 PM
Grandal, easily. All Star upside. Relatively high floor as well. Close to ready or ready for AAA.

RedsManRick
10-17-2011, 10:54 PM
D'oh. Picked Yorman, meant Yasmani.... looks like it won't matter much. Had a tough time between Grandal and Cozart. Cozart is just old.

Corcino, Cozart, Sappelt probably next few.

HokieRed
10-17-2011, 11:23 PM
Grandal. I think RZ undervalues him a little in general. I hope he doesn't go in a deal.

BuckeyeRedleg
10-18-2011, 12:49 AM
Grandal. No other choice for me here.

redsfandan
10-18-2011, 05:01 AM
I think that Grandal should be rated higher than Cozart here. Grandal plays a more important position, has higher upside with an excellent probability of reaching it, is a switch hitter, and is coming off an even better season than Cozart. The only thing that Cozart has on him is higher-level experience and defensive abilities, and Grandal is in the process of closing that gap.

- One plays short, one plays catcher. I'd say they're both pretty important positions. (more on that later)

- It's debatable who had the better season. Cozart had his season split between AAA and the majors. Grandal was in high A and AA with a whopping 12 abs in AAA. Now you could point to Cozart only having 37 abs in the majors. But, the fact that he did well in those 37 abs in the majors should count for something. The only thing we can say for sure is that both had good seasons.

As for his defense:


He (Grandal) did have 19 passed balls on the season and the reports on his defense were quite a bit worse than the ones on him coming out of the draft. He is expected to remain at the catcher position in the long run, but his ceiling defensively seems to be more that of an average backstop than an above average one that some had originally pegged him as coming out of Miami.
- per Doug on his site http://redsminorleagues.com/2011/10/11/state-of-the-farm-catcher-2/


Defensive reports were actually quite lackluster this year.

Yes, but there are two differences.... first, you said he (Grandal) had good defense, which, at least according to reports this season, wasn't entirely accurate. Secondly, Mesoraco has better tools defensively and always has. So even when he wasn't all that good back there, the tools were.
- per Doug in the #1 prospect thread.

Both Cozart and Grandal play positions were defense is pretty important. Defense at catcher is especially important. Cozart has above average defense. BUT, according to Doug, the defensive ceiling for Grandal is an average catcher and that he doesn't have the tools, defensively, that Mes has. The Dark said that Grandal plays a more important position and is in the process of closing the gap in defensive ability. If Doug's right that's not gonna happen. And this isn't fantasy baseball where only offense counts. Now, I'm not going to get my hopes up that Cozart will produce like he did in those 37 abs (although it would be pretty impressive if he had 29 homers but only 44 rbi :lol: ). But, he is expected to be above average. So, it really depends on how much you value defense vs offense at catcher. I'm NOT saying that Grandal will be a defensive liability. I AM saying that an argument could be made that Cozart is the better all-around prospect. I think that's pretty important considering the positions they play.

TRF
10-18-2011, 10:45 AM
Soto. He'll be at AAA in 2012, got a taste this year, likely has the most power (consistent power) of any player in the system including Francisco.

mdccclxix
10-18-2011, 10:52 AM
One point about Grandal's defense that I think bears repeating is that the staff in Bakersfield was very wild. They led the league with 128 wild pitches in 140 games. Most MLB teams end up with half that number. Often much less. 14 of his passed balls were in Bakersfield in 44 games. In his other 46 games last year he had 5 passed balls. So, while this fact doesn't disprove the defensive reports, it introduces doubt that they were colored with a fully representative outlook. As far as Cozart vs Grandal in defensive terms, again, I think we need to be patient and see where things end up. I've heard a wide range about Cozart's defense - from average to great.

marcshoe
10-18-2011, 12:31 PM
Grandal. Pretty impressive rise through the system. I'm not sure he'll ever be a Red, but hey, that's what prospects are for sometimes.

Edd Roush
10-18-2011, 01:49 PM
I do like Cozart a lot and I feel he has a chance to be a solid contributor for the Reds next year. He has a lot of value. However, I cannot get over his inability to take a walk. This has lead me in past prospect rankings to not select guys like Francisco and it will hamper Soto and Cozart's ranking on my personal list this year.

I know Bakersfield is a hitter's paradise, but Grandal continued his hitting into Carolina and for a very short time in Louisville. He is a tremendous minor league hitter and there have been no conerns about him sticking behind the plate in the majors. I feel he is the more valuable prospect if we remove the Reds' current short stop and catching situation from the equation. In terms of who has more value in a vaccuum, I select Grandal.

dougdirt
10-18-2011, 03:00 PM
I do like Cozart a lot and I feel he has a chance to be a solid contributor for the Reds next year. He has a lot of value. However, I cannot get over his inability to take a walk. This has lead me in past prospect rankings to not select guys like Francisco and it will hamper Soto and Cozart's ranking on my personal list this year.

I know Bakersfield is a hitter's paradise, but Grandal continued his hitting into Carolina and for a very short time in Louisville. He is a tremendous minor league hitter and there have been no conerns about him sticking behind the plate in the majors. I feel he is the more valuable prospect if we remove the Reds' current short stop and catching situation from the equation. In terms of who has more value in a vaccuum, I select Grandal.

Grandal did continue his hitting, but his walk rate went down more than 50%, from 16.3% to 7.6%.

As for Cozart, he didn't walk in the majors.... but it was also roughly 9-10 games worth of at bats too. He had a 6.7% walk rate in 960 AAA plate appearances. While that isn't a high walk guy, he kept a good ratio of strikeouts to walks and that is what really matters. And unlike Soto or Francisco, Cozart has had a strong season where he has drawn walks, with an 11.6% walk rate in Carolina in 2009, which is a rate nearly twice as high as either of the other guys have ever had (Soto walked at a 6% clip this season, the highest total for a season by either player).

mace
10-18-2011, 03:06 PM
A rookie SS is not likely to walk much when he's hitting ahead of Votto.

dougdirt
10-18-2011, 03:16 PM
A rookie SS is not likely to walk much when he's hitting ahead of Votto.

I keep seeing this.... but does anyone look at the whole picture? This season, between Louisville and Cincinnati, Cozart hit .311 and struck out under 15% of the time (with a 6% walk rate). So perhaps the issue isn't that he isn't likely to walk, but that he simply hit plenty of good pitches this year. The guy had a Brandon Phillips like strikeout and walk rate (and I would say comparable power at this point too). He isn't the most ideal guy to bat in front of Votto (like Phillips, his average is likely going to need to carry his OBP), but we should probably also be careful about solely looking at his walks on their own, because that will never tell you the entire story.

TRF
10-18-2011, 04:00 PM
Cozart is 26. Soto will be 23 next Feb. I love Cozart as a player. I'm glad he seems to be the lock for the SS job in 2012. If he OPS's .730+ we'll be looking at 2+ additional wins at the league minimum. And that is huge.

But I think Soto has a special bat. Plus he has enough hit ability to keep pitchers honest. He can hit for a decent average with tremendous power.

camisadelgolf
10-18-2011, 05:27 PM
Unless we see a drastic change in the voting, we'll probably start the next poll tomorrow unless there are people opposed.

redsfandan
10-18-2011, 05:55 PM
Unless we see a drastic change in the voting, we'll probably start the next poll tomorrow unless there are people opposed.

While there might not be a change in the poll this is supposed to last all offseason. No reason to rush through these.

dougdirt
10-18-2011, 07:03 PM
Cozart is 26. Soto will be 23 next Feb. I love Cozart as a player. I'm glad he seems to be the lock for the SS job in 2012. If he OPS's .730+ we'll be looking at 2+ additional wins at the league minimum. And that is huge.

But I think Soto has a special bat. Plus he has enough hit ability to keep pitchers honest. He can hit for a decent average with tremendous power.

I agree with where you are coming from. I don't think Cozart is anywhere near #3. I simply am not agreeing with some of the things being said about his game. At the same time, I do think that while Soto can keep pitchers honest, he has some work to do before he is ready to face quality pitching every day.

camisadelgolf
10-18-2011, 11:21 PM
While there might not be a change in the poll this is supposed to last all offseason. No reason to rush through these.
I feel like when you account for runoff votes and my posting inconsistencies, there wouldn't be much harm in limiting a couple of the earlier votes to just two days instead of three. I'm in no hurry, but I'd hate for the last vote to occur during the regular season.

TRF
10-19-2011, 10:42 AM
I agree with where you are coming from. I don't think Cozart is anywhere near #3. I simply am not agreeing with some of the things being said about his game. At the same time, I do think that while Soto can keep pitchers honest, he has some work to do before he is ready to face quality pitching every day.

I can't disagree with anything you said there..

I think that may be the first time it has happened too. :laugh:

kaldaniels
10-19-2011, 09:00 PM
Grandal. But Boxberger had a say in things as well. (Yeah I know relievers aren't valuable yada yada yada....but I think the kid is REALLY good.)