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RedsManRick
10-20-2011, 12:09 PM
Excellent article from the NYT about a very prevalent cognitive bias: the illusion of confidence.

We have a strong tendency to hold strong beliefs when they allow us to tell a clean, easily understood narrative. This can be seen in nearly any human endeavor -- baseball included.

Take a read: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/23/magazine/dont-blink-the-hazards-of-confidence.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all

signalhome
10-20-2011, 12:27 PM
Excellent article from the NYT about a very prevalent cognitive bias: the illusion of confidence.

We have a strong tendency to hold strong beliefs when they allow us to tell a clean, easily understood narrative. This can be seen in nearly any human endeavor -- baseball included.

Take a read: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/23/magazine/dont-blink-the-hazards-of-confidence.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all

Great article, and there's certainly plenty of this to go around in the world of baseball.

Cooper
10-20-2011, 12:41 PM
The article is wrong. I could tell by reading the title.

mdccclxix
10-20-2011, 01:53 PM
To succeed in life, you need two things: ignorance and confidence.
Mark Twain

Baseball Reference inspires us with a boundless confidence in our own powers.
Ralph Waldo Emerson

Optimism is the faith that leads to achievement. Nothing can be done without hope and confidence.
Helen Keller


Wherever you're situated in relation to the game of baseball you are at a disadvantage in predicting the outcome of a game, a trade, a career, an inning, etc.

lollipopcurve
10-20-2011, 02:00 PM
Good read. One germane point from the article:

The context matters. Doctors are likely to have better intuition than stock pickers. Baseball is a context in which judgments can be made pretty well without the blessing of what is considered statistically significant data, IMO. Consider, for example, the draft. How is it that high school talent can be compared to college talent effectively? Those players don't even play against each other.

redsfandan
10-20-2011, 02:03 PM
Excellent article from the NYT about a very prevalent cognitive bias: the illusion of confidence.

We have a strong tendency to hold strong beliefs when they allow us to tell a clean, easily understood narrative. This can be seen in nearly any human endeavor -- baseball included.

Take a read: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/23/magazine/dont-blink-the-hazards-of-confidence.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all

People believe what they want to believe. Once they form an opinion it can be hard for them to change it.

wlf WV
10-20-2011, 02:12 PM
It confirmed my opinion of the Stock Market.A breeding ground for pen hookers.

But this country is now full of them.

wlf WV
10-20-2011, 02:14 PM
This guy told a good story, should I believe him?

RedsManRick
10-20-2011, 02:15 PM
This guy told a good story, should I believe him?

:beerme:

REDREAD
10-20-2011, 02:58 PM
Nice article Rick, thanks for posting.

Rojo
10-20-2011, 04:35 PM
Good article. Reminds me of my favorite cognitive bias (can one have a favorite?), Dunning-Kruger

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect

The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which unskilled people make poor decisions and reach erroneous conclusions, but their incompetence denies them the metacognitive ability to recognize their mistakes.[1] The unskilled therefore suffer from illusory superiority, rating their ability as above average, much higher than it actually is, while the highly skilled underrate their own abilities, suffering from illusory inferiority.

...Regardless of how pervasive the phenomenon is, it is clear from Dunning's and others' work that many Americans, at least sometimes and under some conditions, have a tendency to inflate their worth. It is interesting, therefore, to see the phenomenon's mirror opposite in another culture. In research comparing North American and East Asian self-assessments, Heine of the University of British Columbia finds that East Asians tend to underestimate their abilities, with an aim toward improving the self and getting along with others.

mdccclxix
10-20-2011, 05:06 PM
Good article. Reminds me of my favorite cognitive bias (can one have a favorite?), Dunning-Kruger

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect

The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which unskilled people make poor decisions and reach erroneous conclusions, but their incompetence denies them the metacognitive ability to recognize their mistakes.[1] The unskilled therefore suffer from illusory superiority, rating their ability as above average, much higher than it actually is, while the highly skilled underrate their own abilities, suffering from illusory inferiority.

...Regardless of how pervasive the phenomenon is, it is clear from Dunning's and others' work that many Americans, at least sometimes and under some conditions, have a tendency to inflate their worth. It is interesting, therefore, to see the phenomenon's mirror opposite in another culture. In research comparing North American and East Asian self-assessments, Heine of the University of British Columbia finds that East Asians tend to underestimate their abilities, with an aim toward improving the self and getting along with others.

And that is why Will Ferrell became famous in this day and age, I suppose. His over confident routine reflects our culture.