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camisadelgolf
10-20-2011, 08:26 PM
Who is Redszone's #4 prospect?

#1 C Devin Mesoraco
#2 1B/OF Yonder Alonso
#3 C Yasmani Grandal

camisadelgolf
10-20-2011, 08:30 PM
I like Cozart about as much as anyone, but personally, I'm going to give the nod to Stephenson just based on his ceiling.

dougdirt
10-20-2011, 08:30 PM
I went with Corcino. Big arm, good control, above average pitches, solid mechanics, good numbers.

crazybob60
10-20-2011, 09:39 PM
Zack Cozart is still there and he has been my pick at 2 and 3, and well I should put him at 4.

I would have had Grandal here normally.

1. Mesoraco
2. Cozart
3. Alonso
4. Grandal

Is the way mine have gone thusfar....

marcshoe
10-20-2011, 10:21 PM
I went with Corcino. I like Cozart, but I'm not sure he'll be much more than an a slightly above average player in the long run. Stephenson may deserve this spot, but it's too early to tell.

mdccclxix
10-20-2011, 10:33 PM
Stephanson. Easy high 90's fastball. Excellent make up. Pitchers frame. This could go really well for the Reds.

mace
10-20-2011, 11:37 PM
I'll take the starting shortstop with glove, speed and pretty good power.

mth123
10-21-2011, 01:38 AM
Cozart for me. The top seven or eight guys after Mesoraco are all fairly even IMO. Some have higher potential, others have higher floors. After that its just a matter of what you value. A SS who can handle the position defensively easily has the lowest bar to hurdle from there. I don't think Zach Cozart is going to be an all star except maybe in a high BABIP career year here or there, but I do think he will be a solid game-in, game-out defender who can contribute offensively with good baserunning with some speed, occassional power and enough BA to prevent him from being a black hole in the line-up. I value that more than most of the others. Alonso as a seemingly legit middle of the order bat would be the only other guy I'd consider ahead of him besides Mes, but Cozart is number 2 on my personal list (with Mes 1 and Alonso 3). Grandal has a bit of a Javy feel for me with questions about his bat at upper levels and his glove. I haven't seen many places that project Corcino for much more than 5th starter material. Billy Hamilton and Ronald Torreyes have promise but are just too far away to keep the negatives about them from putting them ahead of Cozart. Sappelt may be an option and I actually have him rated number 4 on my personal list behind Mes, Cozart and Alonso. Y-Rod seemed to take a step back in 2011. He seems to have outgrown CF and that has raised the bar on his offense. He's still a kid, so I've backed him down a bit until he hits. Relievers seem to have more value collectively than they do individually, but Boxberger seems like the real deal for me and he's sneaking up my list.

Stephenson is a wild card and I hope he rises to the top next year at this time, but I can't put him in the top 5 without more track record under his belt.

lollipopcurve
10-21-2011, 08:21 AM
Cozart. If what he showed during his time with the Reds is any indication, he's going to be a real important piece. I don't care how old he is. He could be a very cheap and productive SS who plays the game with plus instincts for several years. People are clamoring about the importance of position -- some would say finding a good SS is just as tough as finding a good catcher.

Kc61
10-21-2011, 09:37 AM
Given Corcino's frame, at this point I would rate him a bit lower down.

I have him about 7 or 8 on the list. If he succeeds next year at higher levels, he shoots up the chart for me.

I have Hamilton, Cozart, Boxberger next. Then 6 to 9 would be some combo of Yorman, Corcino, and Stephenson. Then Frazier ten and Soto eleven or vice versa. Reds are still deep, even with all the promotions to MLB in recent years.

Still think Hamilton is a major prospect who should be 4 or higher.

lollipopcurve
10-21-2011, 10:07 AM
Still think Hamilton is a major prospect who should be 4 or higher.

I'm really excited about Hamilton, too, but in the end he's got one plus-plus tool and no other tool that's plus at the moment. I'm waiting to see if he hits/gets on base at upper levels. If he does, he's a #1 type prospect (in the system). But right now, he's a little too slappy as a hitter and a little too suspect as a defender at SS to get ahead of Cozart, for me.

klw
10-21-2011, 12:16 PM
I went with Cozart again here. So far I thought the order was Mes, Yonder, Cozart, Grandal. I think good arguments could be made for a number of others- soto, corcino, francisco, hamilton, etc. It is refreshing that these decisions have been so tough the past couple of years because of a bunch of quality choices instead of meh.

Mario-Rijo
10-21-2011, 12:49 PM
Cozart. If what he showed during his time with the Reds is any indication, he's going to be a real important piece. I don't care how old he is. He could be a very cheap and productive SS who plays the game with plus instincts for several years. People are clamoring about the importance of position -- some would say finding a good SS is just as tough as finding a good catcher.

Age? I don't know who has a problem with his age but making the bigs at 25 isn't a bad thing, I believe 24 years old is roughly the norm.

lollipopcurve
10-21-2011, 12:59 PM
Age? I don't know who has a problem with his age but making the bigs at 25 isn't a bad thing, I believe 24 years old is roughly the norm.

Some are downgrading him vs. other prospects in this discussion due to his age. It's a variable to consider when ranking these guys.

redsfandan
10-21-2011, 01:20 PM
Some are downgrading him vs. other prospects in this discussion due to his age. It's a variable to consider when ranking these guys.

I think another reason that people are downgrading Cozart is that he doesn't have one thing that really stands out about him. While another shortstop (Hamilton) has speed. But, what else does Hamilton have? I don't think that's as big of a concern with Cozart. Cozart doesn't have as many weaknesses as Hamilton. But, Hamiltons speed is sexy so it's getting alot of attention. Possibly a little too much.

kaldaniels
10-21-2011, 01:41 PM
Stephenson. High ceiling arm. Tried to justify Boxberger over him but Robert's ceiling is too high. Box will be my next choice.

Edd Roush
10-21-2011, 02:28 PM
I also went Stephenson. I am a sucker for pitching, though.

thatcoolguy_22
10-21-2011, 07:32 PM
In years past I would almost always vote for the highest upside, regardless of floor/current level. I like the ready now bat of Cozart with a league average (maybe better) glove at SS. Hamilton is hermes on the base path mixed with devin hester's athletic ability, but he still has a very long way to go. His floor could be cup of coffee and his ceiling could be Jose Reyes (ish). With such a wide range, I'm hedging here.

HokieRed
10-21-2011, 11:51 PM
Corcino. 156 K/34 W for a 21 year old. I like a number of the others, including Cozart, and 4-10 seem extremely close, but I think Corcino's numbers are extraordinary, especially this better than 4 to 1 K to W ratio (together with a well over 1 K per inning K rate).

Superdude
10-22-2011, 12:34 AM
Corcino. 156 K/34 W for a 21 year old. I like a number of the others, including Cozart, and 4-10 seem extremely close, but I think Corcino's numbers are extraordinary, especially this better than 4 to 1 K to W ratio (together with a well over 1 K per inning K rate).

I like Corcino here too. I love what Cozart's gonna bring to the table after this ball club's dearth of adequate shortstops for the past five years, but I can't see placing him above a 20 year old starter with a mid 90s heater and phenomenal numbers. And the likelihood of Hamilton turning out to be a useless speedster is way too high for this spot IMO.

Scrap Irony
10-22-2011, 11:59 AM
Hamilton here.

Too much upside to rank further down.

Love the speed, the athleticism, and the fact that he could play Gold Glove SS. Love that he walks a good bit (8.5% BB rate) and showed massive improvement from first half to second.

His second half numbers-- 318/382/387/769 with a 384 wOBA-- are top-shelf and his ceiling is a game-changer at the top of the order. He's shown some massive improvement over the course of his young minor league career and looks to be a guy who really wants to learn as well. (His attitude has been praised multiple times, as has his aggressiveness and hunger to get better.)

Don't like the lack of power, but, at leadoff and with his speed, I don't think it'll matter all that much. He'll need to learn to drive the ball more-- or bunt really, really well. If he can create more opportunities for himself by making the 1B and 3B creep close, he'll get 35 doubles and triples a year for himself.

To me, if all goes well, he's Brett Butler at SS and an 8.0 WAR waiting to happen.

Like Corcino and Cozart (not to mention Torreyes and Soto), but Hamilton is my pick to click.

redsfandan
10-22-2011, 08:15 PM
At the start of the #1 prospect thread Cam said: "In the event of a tie, we will do a runoff vote."

I think in the past runoff votes happened if the top 2-3 players were within 3-5 votes of each other. I'd prefer doing that this year as well. Maybe runoffs could occur if players are within 5 votes for the top 20 prospect polls and then 3 votes for 21-40. The logic being that there's alot more people participating in the early polls that could change their votes. For example, last year the #1 prospect poll had 116 votes while the #40 prospect poll had 45 votes.

What does everyone think about that idea and runoffs this year?

Danny Serafini
10-23-2011, 01:34 AM
I say this every year, unless there is a tie there is no reason for a runoff vote. Why overcomplicate things?

mth123
10-23-2011, 02:06 AM
I say this every year, unless there is a tie there is no reason for a runoff vote. Why overcomplicate things?

Agreed.

Mario-Rijo
10-23-2011, 09:35 AM
At the start of the #1 prospect thread Cam said: "In the event of a tie, we will do a runoff vote."

I think in the past runoff votes happened if the top 2-3 players were within 3-5 votes of each other. I'd prefer doing that this year as well. Maybe runoffs could occur if players are within 5 votes for the top 20 prospect polls and then 3 votes for 21-40. The logic being that there's alot more people participating in the early polls that could change their votes. For example, last year the #1 prospect poll had 116 votes while the #40 prospect poll had 45 votes.

What does everyone think about that idea and runoffs this year?

Sounds fine to me. Might even combine what you have here with what Danny Serafini said.

Top 10 - within 5 votes requires a runoff vote.
11-20 - within 3 votes requires a runoff.
21-40 - No runoff except in the case of an exact tie.

Mario-Rijo
10-23-2011, 09:37 AM
I say this every year, unless there is a tie there is no reason for a runoff vote. Why overcomplicate things?

Because there are so many other players being considered initially that it changes the complexion of the voting. When you have just 2 players to vote on the vote could swing a great deal in the opposite direction.

Mario-Rijo
10-23-2011, 09:39 AM
In years past I would almost always vote for the highest upside, regardless of floor/current level. I like the ready now bat of Cozart with a league average (maybe better) glove at SS. Hamilton is hermes on the base path mixed with devin hester's athletic ability, but he still has a very long way to go. His floor could be cup of coffee and his ceiling could be Jose Reyes (ish). With such a wide range, I'm hedging here.

Well said, about how I feel about it. Love 'em both but Hammy's distance from legitimacy is far, far greater than the norm. In fact I think most any major league club would take Cozart over Hamilton in a deal right now just because of the floor.

Scrap Irony
10-23-2011, 10:39 AM
In fact I think most any major league club would take Cozart over Hamilton in a deal right now just because of the floor.

No chance. Or at least I don't believe this to be the case.

I can only think of one team that would make a deal for Cozart over Hamilton (Tampa Bay).

And that's extremely arguable.

Don't let Cozart's great major league hitting color your perceptions-- it's under 40 ABs. Look at his minor league numbers-- good power, good defense, low obp-- he looks to be an average-ish starter at SS, perhaps a bit more if the Reds are lucky. And that has some value, especially to a team that's in win-now mode. Think a 1.0 - 3.0 WAR guy with a ceiling of 4.0.

Hamilton (assuming his defense works out) will grade out better than that based only on his speed and range. Think a 3.0 - 5.0 WAR with an outside shot at 8.0. That's the type of deal I make eight days a week if I'm a GM, as I can always find a SS of the free agent market or undervalued by another team while waiting on my SS of the future to blossom. (And the more SS I have in the system, the more likely I don't have to deal for anyone for a decade or two.)

Last season, for example, Baseball America graded Hamilton as a Top 50-ish prospect in baseball. Cozart didn't make the list. While I often question BA and their fascination with some tools, this one passes the smell test. At least for me.

Don't get me wrong: I like what Cozart brings to the table for 2012 and want him to take the majority of the starts for the Reds at SS. But when faced with a choice, it's a fairly easy one to make.

JaxRed
10-23-2011, 12:04 PM
I voted for Cingrani. Absolutely dominant pitching stats in a hitters league. Can he be added next time?

dougdirt
10-23-2011, 12:06 PM
Don't let Cozart's great major league hitting color your perceptions-- it's under 40 ABs. Look at his minor league numbers-- good power, good defense, low obp-- he looks to be an average-ish starter at SS, perhaps a bit more if the Reds are lucky. And that has some value, especially to a team that's in win-now mode. Think a 1.0 - 3.0 WAR guy with a ceiling of 4.0.

Hamilton (assuming his defense works out) will grade out better than that based only on his speed and range. Think a 3.0 - 5.0 WAR with an outside shot at 8.0. That's the type of deal I make eight days a week if I'm a GM, as I can always find a SS of the free agent market or undervalued by another team while waiting on my SS of the future to blossom. (And the more SS I have in the system, the more likely I don't have to deal for anyone for a decade or two.)

Last season, for example, Baseball America graded Hamilton as a Top 50-ish prospect in baseball. Cozart didn't make the list. While I often question BA and their fascination with some tools, this one passes the smell test. At least for me.

Don't get me wrong: I like what Cozart brings to the table for 2012 and want him to take the majority of the starts for the Reds at SS. But when faced with a choice, it's a fairly easy one to make.

Come on now.... Hamilton, theoretically could become some type of good MLB player well into the future. But Hamilton isn't going to be better than Cozart because of his speed and range alone. Cozart is a solid defender who should be average at worst in the field. And to be honest, Cozarts power is very likely to provide more actual value than Hamilton's speed is.

Here is the biggest difference, as you said, Cozart looks to be an average-ish starter, perhaps a tad more. Hamilton has an incredibly long way to go still before he can even be that.

And that is why the two guys are close. I am with you that Hamilton is rated higher than Cozart, but it isn't by a whole lot.

mth123
10-23-2011, 12:23 PM
Nothing makes a guy overvalued more than surpassing some gaudy round counting stat figure. When the stat is something as marginally valuable as Stolen Bases, then even moreso. If other teams are salivating over Hamilton because he stole 100 bases in low A ball, the Reds should pull the trigger and get something back that can help in 2012.

I doubt that anyone is viewing Hamilton as a "must have." I'd like to know more about his defense. Athleticism converts to strong defense better in the OF than it does at SS. Picking up ground balls and making a good throw requires more skill than simply running real fast and getting to the ball before it hits the ground. Hamilton's speed give him the fall back of moving to CF and maybe being able to contribute that way if SS doesn't work out, so that keeps him in the top 10 for me. I have him at 8 or 9 clearly behind guys who seem like better baseball players like Mes, Cozart, Alonso, Sappelt, Grandal, Torreyes and Boxberger. The choice for me is between the huge question mark with huge Potential of Hamilton and the sight unseen number 1 draft pick. The baseball skills start to show, I'll move him up.

dougdirt
10-23-2011, 12:47 PM
I'd like to know more about his defense.

This is just my opinion....

He still needs to work on "the routine" plays, but he makes enough of them that I don't worry that he won't continue to get better at making them with consistency. The key is the spectacular plays that he makes, that I have been describing for a while as "he gets to baseballs that really good shortstops can only dream of touching". He certainly needs some work (most 20 year old shortstops do), but he does have some special things working for him that other guys simply will never be able to do anything to match, where as his weaknesses (defensively) are things that he probably can improve quite a bit with time and work.

RedsManRick
10-23-2011, 02:12 PM
This is just my opinion....

He still needs to work on "the routine" plays, but he makes enough of them that I don't worry that he won't continue to get better at making them with consistency. The key is the spectacular plays that he makes, that I have been describing for a while as "he gets to baseballs that really good shortstops can only dream of touching". He certainly needs some work (most 20 year old shortstops do), but he does have some special things working for him that other guys simply will never be able to do anything to match, where as his weaknesses (defensively) are things that he probably can improve quite a bit with time and work.

Nearly every analyst I've seen suggests that he's a future 2B. Is that being driven by his error rate without a closer look at his talent?

mth123
10-23-2011, 02:23 PM
Nearly every analyst I've seen suggests that he's a future 2B. Is that being driven by his error rate without a closer look at his talent?

A lot of young SS make a lot of errors. I don't dismiss the idea that he can stick there, but if his issue is fielding ground balls cleanly, 2B won't be a better option. I'd guess if the errors persist, CF is his likely landing spot.

Most SS who get moved to 2B don't move there because they make errors. Its usually because they are slow to the ball and don't have the time to throw the runner out that they would have with the short throw from 2B. If hands are an issue, then 2B might actually be a worse spot for him.

Right now I just can't rate somebody who has questions about both his bat and his glove just because he stole 100 bases. Until he answers some of those questions, he's in the second tier for me.

lollipopcurve
10-23-2011, 02:35 PM
If hands are an issue, then 2B might actually be a worse spot for him.

On the minor league board, redsof72 has noted that Hamilton's hands are a bit hard. (72 sees all Dayton games.) This is likely why speculation exists that Hamilton might be moved to CF eventually.

Superdude
10-23-2011, 03:09 PM
Right now I just can't rate somebody who has questions about both his bat and his glove just because he stole 100 bases. Until he answers some of those questions, he's in the second tier for me.

I don't agree with the hype either. His bat lacks any positive attributes outside of beating out infield hits against low-A infielders. He could be a spectacular shortstop, but even that is questionable at this point. Way too much risk, and to be honest, I don't see the upside being all that impressive as far as statistical production goes.

camisadelgolf
10-23-2011, 04:29 PM
When it comes to picking between Cozart and Hamilton as the better prospect, I think the ceilings of their offensive potential is negligible when you consider the baserunning aspect of it. Hamilton would probably get on base more, and Cozart would probably slug more. All things being equal, they'd have a similar OPS with Hamilton slightly lower but able to add a ton of stolen bases and runs. The determining factor for me would be defense. Hamilton is rough around the edges, but he has the potential for elite range. Cozart, however, looks like he'll be an average-to-good shortstop--not that there's anything wrong with it. Right now, I'd have to pick Cozart over Hamilton, but if we see drastic improvement in Hamilton's defense, he's the easy pick for better prospect provided his offensive production continues.

RedsManRick
10-23-2011, 04:36 PM
A lot of young SS make a lot of errors. I don't dismiss the idea that he can stick there, but if his issue is fielding ground balls cleanly, 2B won't be a better option. I'd guess if the errors persist, CF is his likely landing spot.

I understand all of this, hence my confusion.

dougdirt
10-23-2011, 06:25 PM
Nearly every analyst I've seen suggests that he's a future 2B. Is that being driven by his error rate without a closer look at his talent?

Have you read anything more recent than last years stuff? I wonder because last year he played second base in Billings, so perhaps that is where that is coming from. I just can't seem to grasp why someone would suggest he is a second baseman. His arm is plenty strong. His range is great. Any issues beyond those two would be present at both spots.

redsfandan
10-24-2011, 04:13 AM
No chance. Or at least I don't believe this to be the case.

I can only think of one team that would make a deal for Cozart over Hamilton (Tampa Bay).

And that's extremely arguable.

Don't let Cozart's great major league hitting color your perceptions-- it's under 40 ABs. Look at his minor league numbers-- good power, good defense, low obp-- he looks to be an average-ish starter at SS, perhaps a bit more if the Reds are lucky. And that has some value, especially to a team that's in win-now mode. Think a 1.0 - 3.0 WAR guy with a ceiling of 4.0.

Hamilton (assuming his defense works out) will grade out better than that based only on his speed and range. Think a 3.0 - 5.0 WAR with an outside shot at 8.0. That's the type of deal I make eight days a week if I'm a GM, as I can always find a SS of the free agent market or undervalued by another team while waiting on my SS of the future to blossom. (And the more SS I have in the system, the more likely I don't have to deal for anyone for a decade or two.)

Last season, for example, Baseball America graded Hamilton as a Top 50-ish prospect in baseball. Cozart didn't make the list. While I often question BA and their fascination with some tools, this one passes the smell test. At least for me.

Don't get me wrong: I like what Cozart brings to the table for 2012 and want him to take the majority of the starts for the Reds at SS. But when faced with a choice, it's a fairly easy one to make.

I'm curious, what do you think Hamilton's floor is?

Also, how much would you like him if he was only able to steal 30 bases in the majors?

edit: One more, what do you think is the ceiling/floor for his obp?

bubbachunk
10-24-2011, 09:12 AM
I went Soto. The type of power he displayed in a partial season was outstanding. If he had a full 600 PAs he would have conceivably hit 40+ hrs in the southern league.

Scrap Irony
10-24-2011, 09:56 AM
I'm curious, what do you think Hamilton's floor is?

Also, how much would you like him if he was only able to steal 30 bases in the majors?

edit: One more, what do you think is the ceiling/floor for his obp?

His floor would be as a high minors flame out. Assuming the worst, he won't get any stronger or learn despite being a "hard worker". His glove never gets beyond the amazing-one-play and error-the-next spot it's in now.

He's already exhibited the ability to hit in low A, so he's passed two tests. (That of Rookie League and low A.) His pedigree will give him a bump he may not deserve, as would his 80 speed tool. So, even if he struggles hitting in Bakersfield and above, he'll get bumped at least one spot above that. (That's AA.)

Bakersfield is an extreme hitter's league and he has a very, very good team around him, which will likely inflate rather than expose those numbers so I feel comfortable in believing he'll pass High A. That and the aforementioned pedigree and tools would attract any number of teams (if he should flame out in Cincinnati) looking for cheap production via alternative sources. As a minor league free agent, he'd have little trouble glomming on at AAA and likely even make the majors as a pinch runner/ base stealer (Billy Bates, paging Billy Bates) in a September call-up.

His major league floor is a Paul Janish type-- 240/300/300 with a ton of steals (50+) and above average defense, assuming he plays every day. (This assumes a modicum of improvement with the bat, no extra power, no leg injuries, and the career defensive arc of talented and erratic defense-first shortstops.

His most likely career path will follow Dee Gordon from the Dodgers. Tons of speed, high BA, much better BB rates, a bit more speed on the basepaths and at the plate. An obp over league average, but no slugging at all beyond the speed doubles and triples and an occasional home run he'll run into.

As to the stolen bases, they are an attraction (and, IMO, are extremely underrated by this board in general). He's an elite speed guy. That's seen not only in his stolen bases (an 80+% rate at close to triple digits would add an extra win or two to whichever major league team uses him in that manner just in WAR), but in his aggressive base-running as well. In just that department, Hamilton is likely to earn 3.0 WAR. (I fully understand that statement, and, no, I don't believe it to be hyperbole. Gordon's speed rating was just under 2.0 in a third of the season and Hamilton has another step on him, if you can dig it.)

In short, I look at Hamilton and see a player that has 3.0 WAR in his back pocket. His glove would have to stay exactly as it is for him to have negative value at the spot, as his range and athleticism will give him a zone rating out of this world. Too, the typical minor league SS gets much better the more he plays. Hamilton has only had one year of minor league SS play. He profiles to get much, much better. I feel pretty comfortable saying his defense won't be that negative, all things considered, by the time he gets to the majors.

So, offensively, he'd have to be a -3.0 WAR player. With his speed and patience, that's just not likely to happen.

At his ceiling, he's a game-changer, a la Tim Raines. That's HOF level.

dougdirt
10-24-2011, 01:36 PM
Dee Gordon struck out significantly less than Hamilton has shown so far in full season ball. Gordon was a little bit older, but was also a lot more raw. He didn't even play organized baseball until he was in high school.

As for the Tim Raines comparison.... no way. Tim Raines had 10 120 OPS+ seasons. That is essentially what Jay Bruce has done the last two seasons. Billy Hamilton isn't going to ever be that kind of hitter.

The DARK
10-24-2011, 02:39 PM
I went Soto. The type of power he displayed in a partial season was outstanding. If he had a full 600 PAs he would have conceivably hit 40+ hrs in the southern league.

He should be coming up fairly soon on the list. He'd always been one of those players with great raw power who was young for his level and hadn't "figured it out" yet (think Juan Duran). The fact that he's less of an all-around hitter than Alonso and plays 1B has held him down so far, but that kind of power explosion can't be ignored. He should go in the 6-10 range.

Also, is there a chance that we could say that Billy Hamilton's upside is... erm... Billy Hamilton? ;)

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hamilbi01.shtml

Kc61
10-24-2011, 02:45 PM
Around here baserunning is deemed unimportant. That may be true for 98 percent of the players in the game.

Over the years, I have seen some baserunners dismantle the opposition by applying constant pressure. Yes, the player has to get on base. But top baserunning skill can be a very serious weapon.

It's rare. Hamilton may have it. I don't think we should overlook that.

As for Soto, I'm not calling him a top prospect yet. He had a good year offensively, but it's one year. And now that he's a first baseman, he needs to have top notch offensive ability to stand out.

Had Soto remained at third base, he would be higher on my list. Now, I'm cautious with him.

*BaseClogger*
10-24-2011, 03:22 PM
Around here baserunning is deemed unimportant. That may be true for 98 percent of the players in the game.

Over the years, I have seen some baserunners dismantle the opposition by applying constant pressure. Yes, the player has to get on base. But top baserunning skill can be a very serious weapon.

It's rare. Hamilton may have it. I don't think we should overlook that.

Me personally I'm not overlooking it. But he has to be able to get on base to be that kind of factor, and I think a lot of us doubt his potential to do develop that skill...

redsfandan
10-24-2011, 04:02 PM
His major league floor is a Paul Janish type-- 240/300/300 with a ton of steals (50+) and above average defense, assuming he plays every day. (This assumes a modicum of improvement with the bat, no extra power, no leg injuries, and the career defensive arc of talented and erratic defense-first shortstops.
Has anyone ever done that before?

At his ceiling, he's a game-changer, a la Tim Raines. That's HOF level.

You're already talking about him like he's a potential HOF player? Really? (By the way, Raines isn't in the HOF.)

Scrap Irony
10-24-2011, 09:02 PM
You're already talking about him like he's a potential HOF player? Really? (By the way, Raines isn't in the HOF.)

No, I said, at his ceiling, he's a HOF caliber player. There's a big difference between ceiling and likely player (Dee Gordon was the player I used). Jay Bruce has HOF potential. So does Joey Votto. Scott Rolen did as well. Aroldis Chapman does, too.

So, too, does Billy Hamilton.

And Tim Raines absolutely is a HOF player. Look at his numbers. He just hasn't been awarded that honor because the BBWA are pretty much stupid.

fearofpopvol1
10-25-2011, 01:16 AM
I think Hamilton, while an interesting and fun guy to watch, has been way overvalued here by RZ.

mth123
10-25-2011, 01:20 AM
I think Hamilton, while an interesting and fun guy to watch, has been way overvalued here by RZ.

:thumbup:

redsfandan
10-25-2011, 04:08 AM
Scrap Irony, this is what I don't get. And, please, let me know if I misunderstood you.
You think that his major league floor is .240/.300/.300 ... with 50+ steals. (I'd still love to know if that's even ever happened before)


You think he will have an outside shot at 8 war. (I checked fangraphs and, according to them, there were only four 8.0+ war players in 2011. All four had at least 21 homers. I don't think anyone expects Hamilton to have more than 5 homers in a mlb season, if even that many.)

And you also said that at his ceiling, he's a HOF caliber player. (Despite not even playing above A ball yet.)


Now I don't think there's anyone that dislikes Hamilton. It's possible that he could end up as the Reds #1 prospect in a year and be a really good major league lead off hitter. I just don't think that's something we can say just yet though. And whether we're talking about the floor you're expecting, the ceiling, whatever, those are some really lofty expectations to place on a guy that hasn't played above A ball and has obvious things to work on.

Will M
10-25-2011, 04:41 AM
i can't get too excited about Hamilton. he obviously has question marks and has yet to play above A ball. while i understand his upside there is a good chance he never succeeds in the bigs. i am of the 'wake me up when he has a 350 OPB in AA' mindset. now i am a bit like that with all prospects. i don't pay that much attention until they succeed in AA or really tear up A+. until then Hamilton is a guy to keep watching but i am not going to pencil him into the Reds lineup anytime soon.

my pick was Cozart. i think he is a major league starter at SS. not too shabby.

Scrap Irony
10-25-2011, 09:44 AM
Scrap Irony, this is what I don't get. And, please, let me know if I misunderstood you.
You think that his major league floor is .240/.300/.300 ... with 50+ steals. (I'd still love to know if that's even ever happened before)


You think he will have an outside shot at 8 war. (I checked fangraphs and, according to them, there were only four 8.0+ war players in 2011. All four had at least 21 homers. I don't think anyone expects Hamilton to have more than 5 homers in a mlb season, if even that many.)

And you also said that at his ceiling, he's a HOF caliber player. (Despite not even playing above A ball yet.)


Now I don't think there's anyone that dislikes Hamilton. It's possible that he could end up as the Reds #1 prospect in a year and be a really good major league lead off hitter. I just don't think that's something we can say just yet though. And whether we're talking about the floor you're expecting, the ceiling, whatever, those are some really lofty expectations to place on a guy that hasn't played above A ball and has obvious things to work on.

1. Has it been done before?
Check out Michael Bourn in 2008. While he was close in steals, everything else matches. I didn't check beyond him, as that was the first guy I though of and he was close enough.

2. As to the 8.0 WAR:
Because of that speed and aggressiveness on the basepaths (and fangraphs ability to graph it), Hamilton will start out with 3.0 + WAR in his pocket that almost no one else will have. I don't know if you've ever seen him play live, but he is truly in a class by himself both in stealing bases and in running the bases. He turns outs into singles, singles into triples, and doubles into home runs. (And no, this isn't hyperbole.)

As an example of how baserunning WAR plays into the game, take a look at another speedster not quite in Hamilton's class, Elvis Andrus. The Ranger SS earned a 7.7 score in Speed on his way to a 4.5 WAR overall. This led the majors. That adds .77 to his overall WAR. Hamilton is faster, more aggressive, and just stole 66 more bases in less games in the minor leagues.

Defensively, Hamilton can again use his monster tools to earn major WAR points. Again, at his ceiling, he turns his 80 athleticism into Gold Glove defense. We've already discussed his elite (re: HOF) range and that he already gets to balls that other great fielders wave at. If he's a Gold Glove level SS, he'd earn what other players earn at that level. Alexi Ramirez earned an 11. That adds another 1.1 WAR to his ledger.

So far, he's at around 2.0 WAR and that's being conservative on his numbers.

Now, add in his speed while hitting. We're again talking about ceiling (the best of all outcomes)-- therefore, Hamilton masters the bunt game, a la Brett Butler (another speedster whom I compare to Hamilton). After figuring out how to bunt really, really well, Butler went from an average-ish BaBIP to one that regularly exceeded 340 and didn't dip below 328 until he was over 40 and had lost two or three steps. If Hamilton can harness that bunt-- with his speed-- he easily adds that extra 1.1 of WAR to make it to 3.0 WAR almost no one else has.

You add in the typical elite speedster progression-- and a season where hits fall and his BaBIP soars-- and a season of 8.0 WAR is certainly possible.

The problem here, IMO, isn't Hamilton so much as it's the definition of ceiling. Ceiling is if everything goes right. (I had this discussion one time five years or so ago on Redszone, IIRC.)

Because of his 80 tool (speed) and its effects, Hamilton could become a HOF player. It's very similar to Aroldis Chapman, in that he too has an 80 tool and an athleticism that allows him to repeat it.

3. This isn't about where they are now, dan. It's about where they could be projected when they hit the majors. (If they hit the majors.)

He has an 80 tool. Only a select few in the history of the game have a tool that high.

He has 80 athleticism. Only a select few in today's game have as much athleticism as does Hamilton

redsfandan
10-25-2011, 10:30 AM
1. Has it been done before?
Check out Michael Bourn in 2008. While he was close in steals, everything else matches. I didn't check beyond him, as that was the first guy I though of and he was close enough.
Yeah, Bourn was close but not close enough. Look, even if you can find some players that actually had a .240/.300/.300 line with 50+ steals I doubt it's going to be that often of an occurrence. And that's what you have for his major league floor.




2. As to the 8.0 WAR:
Because of that speed and aggressiveness on the basepaths (and fangraphs ability to graph it), Hamilton will start out with 3.0 + WAR in his pocket that almost no one else will have. I don't know if you've ever seen him play live, but he is truly in a class by himself both in stealing bases and in running the bases. He turns outs into singles, singles into triples, and doubles into home runs. (And no, this isn't hyperbole.)

As an example of how baserunning WAR plays into the game, take a look at another speedster not quite in Hamilton's class, Elvis Andrus. The Ranger SS earned a 7.7 score in Speed on his way to a 4.5 WAR overall. This led the majors. That adds .77 to his overall WAR. Hamilton is faster, more aggressive, and just stole 66 more bases in less games in the minor leagues.

Defensively, Hamilton can again use his monster tools to earn major WAR points. Again, at his ceiling, he turns his 80 athleticism into Gold Glove defense. We've already discussed his elite (re: HOF) range and that he already gets to balls that other great fielders wave at. If he's a Gold Glove level SS, he'd earn what other players earn at that level. Alexi Ramirez earned an 11. That adds another 1.1 WAR to his ledger.

So far, he's at around 2.0 WAR and that's being conservative on his numbers.

Now, add in his speed while hitting. We're again talking about ceiling (the best of all outcomes)-- therefore, Hamilton masters the bunt game, a la Brett Butler (another speedster whom I compare to Hamilton). After figuring out how to bunt really, really well, Butler went from an average-ish BaBIP to one that regularly exceeded 340 and didn't dip below 328 until he was over 40 and had lost two or three steps. If Hamilton can harness that bunt-- with his speed-- he easily adds that extra 1.1 of WAR to make it to 3.0 WAR almost no one else has.

You add in the typical elite speedster progression-- and a season where hits fall and his BaBIP soars-- and a season of 8.0 WAR is certainly possible.

The problem here, IMO, isn't Hamilton so much as it's the definition of ceiling. Ceiling is if everything goes right. (I had this discussion one time five years or so ago on Redszone, IIRC.)

Because of his 80 tool (speed) and its effects, Hamilton could become a HOF player. It's very similar to Aroldis Chapman, in that he too has an 80 tool and an athleticism that allows him to repeat it.

Honestly, this is the last part I'm gonna try to comment on and I really don't know where to start. I'm serious, there's just so much... yes that sounds like hyperbole; monster tools? he has speed and what else?; he masters the bunt game? what is he yoda?; hits fall and his BaBIP soars and his 3.0 war becomes an 8.0 war??; ceiling is if everything goes right reality doesn't matter in the equation; I wouldn't call Chapman a 'potential' HOF player either I just don't throw that around that easily; ....

how about this, name some players that had an 8.0 WAR with 5 or less homers.

3. This isn't about where they are now, dan. It's about where they could be projected when they hit the majors. (If they hit the majors.)

He has an 80 tool. Only a select few in the history of the game have a tool that high.

He has 80 athleticism. Only a select few in today's game have as much athleticism as does Hamilton
I understand. We're talking about what we think his potential ceiling could be IF everything goes right. I just think you're hoping for ALOT to go right.

Only a select few in the history of the game have a tool that high. Ok, someone else that knows how to check that can let us know but I'm really doubtful about that. Now I'm not saying that I expect that there'll be alot of players like that but more than a few. And how much alot of speed is worth vs alot of something like power is open to debate but I'll side with the people that think power is worth more. ALOT more.

Lastly, he's NOT in the game yet. He's nowhere close. He's in A ball. If he can have those kind of stats for a season in the majors then, sure, I'll admit I was wrong and you were right. But, there's a heck of a difference between A ball and the majors.

BuckeyeRedleg
10-25-2011, 12:30 PM
And Tim Raines absolutely is a HOF player. Look at his numbers. He just hasn't been awarded that honor because the BBWA are pretty much stupid.

Agree.

TRF
10-25-2011, 12:37 PM
I missed the vote, but I'd have gone with Soto again.

Scrap Irony
10-25-2011, 04:59 PM
Yeah, Bourn was close but not close enough. Look, even if you can find some players that actually had a .240/.300/.300 line with 50+ steals I doubt it's going to be that often of an occurrence. And that's what you have for his major league floor.

Were you alive in the 1970's? Virtually every leadoff hitter in baseball during that decade had similar numbers. Larry Bowa is a SS that couldn't quite steal all those bases, but all the other numbers work out. There's a bunch of those guys, in fact.

But, let's just focus on the 1970s era SS. Let's also focus on a 610 or less OPS, with 50+ SBs. Let's also limit it to SS and leadoff hitters, just for fun. I've still got:
Omar Moreno
Ron LeFlore
Maury Wills
Bert Campenaris
Ozzie Smith
to start with. I know Delino Deshields had a season close to this in the mid 90's (as he was on my fantasy team).

Not that this means anything...

RedsManRick
10-25-2011, 04:59 PM
Some guys that come to mind when I try to picture Billy Hamilton's career: Otis Nixon, Delino Deshields, Tony Womack, Vince Coleman, Omar Morena, Willie McGee. Some useful players there, but more fun than good.

mth123
10-25-2011, 05:28 PM
Some guys that come to mind when I try to picture Billy Hamilton's career: Otis Nixon, Delino Deshields, Tony Womack, Vince Coleman, Omar Morena, Willie McGee. Some useful players there, but more fun than good.

I hope Hamilton really does develop, but with questions about both the glove and the bat, I'll be happy if he turns into any of those guys. Even Willy T had 4 years in the big leagues and duped some idiot into giving him $6.5 Million over 2 years. That has to be considered a success when considering the failure rate of prospects.

dougdirt
10-25-2011, 08:37 PM
2. As to the 8.0 WAR:
Because of that speed and aggressiveness on the basepaths (and fangraphs ability to graph it), Hamilton will start out with 3.0 + WAR in his pocket that almost no one else will have. I don't know if you've ever seen him play live, but he is truly in a class by himself both in stealing bases and in running the bases. He turns outs into singles, singles into triples, and doubles into home runs. (And no, this isn't hyperbole.)
Yes, it is hyperbole. Hamilton has two inside the park home runs in his career. So either he is the absolute weakest hitter in baseball history as a pro (since by your theory he would have only had two doubles if he were a regular runner), or it is quite a bit of hyperbole. He also isn't turning singles in triples. He had plenty of infield singles this year, but he also had plenty that weren't.

Scrap Irony
10-25-2011, 08:42 PM
It's not that he turns all outs into singles, et al, it's that he turns some of them into each.

That's not hyperbole.

dougdirt
10-25-2011, 09:00 PM
It's not that he turns all outs into singles, et al, it's that he turns some of them into each.

That's not hyperbole.

He hasn't turned a single double into a HR. I have seen both of his inside the park home runs. Neither was a double for anyone besides a zombie.

redsfandan
10-25-2011, 09:19 PM
Were you alive in the 1970's? Virtually every leadoff hitter in baseball during that decade had similar numbers. Larry Bowa is a SS that couldn't quite steal all those bases, but all the other numbers work out. There's a bunch of those guys, in fact.

But, let's just focus on the 1970s era SS. Let's also focus on a 610 or less OPS, with 50+ SBs. Let's also limit it to SS and leadoff hitters, just for fun. I've still got:
Omar Moreno
Ron LeFlore
Maury Wills
Bert Campenaris
Ozzie Smith
to start with. I know Delino Deshields had a season close to this in the mid 90's (as he was on my fantasy team).

Not that this means anything...
I didn't look up their stats. I'm just gonna take your word that more players that I expected have had 50 sb while having a .240/.300/.300 line. One thing that's worth noting though is that the expectations, offensively, for the shortstop position have changed over the last 30 years. I'm not sure that a player in todays game would accumulate enough abs to have a shot at 50 sb if their ops was .610 or less. Weak hitting starting shortstops were pretty common back then. They're not now. More is expected from them offensively. Now, Dusty might give him 500+ abs so he'd have a shot at 50 sb. But, I'm not sure I'd want that to happen if he had a .240/.300/.300 line. There's a reason that those kind of players aren't as likely to get 500+ abs anymore.

Scrap Irony
10-25-2011, 09:30 PM
He hasn't turned a single double into a HR. I have seen both of his inside the park home runs. Neither was a double for anyone besides a zombie.

On April 19 of this year, Hamilton was timed, in his second inside the park homer, at 14.2 seconds from home to home. (This confirms your own time of 14.18 from home to home on a botched ground rule double from the second game of the season.)

Bengie Molina was timed to second base at 9.7 seconds in 2006. (That's actually the only time I was able to find at the major league level from home to second base.) If he'd tried to stretch it into a triple, he'd have been out. So, if he were a good runner, he'd have had to stay at second base. On the same ball hit by Hamilton.

While I'm not certain, I'm pretty sure none of the Molina brothers are zombies. Bengie included.

dougdirt
10-25-2011, 09:34 PM
On April 19 of this year, Hamilton was timed, in his second inside the park homer, at 14.2 seconds from home to home. (This confirms your own time of 14.18 from home to home on a botched ground rule double from the second game of the season.)

Bengie Molina was timed to second base at 9.7 seconds in 2006. (That's actually the only time I was able to find at the major league level from home to second base.) If he'd tried to stretch it into a triple, he'd have been out. So, if he were a good runner, he'd have had to stay at second base. On the same ball hit by Hamilton.

While I'm not certain, I'm pretty sure none of the Molina brothers are zombies. Bengie included.

Did Molina slow up as he reached second? Even so, Molina may have actually made it to third base. You need to remember, it is slower from home to first than from first to second because you are already moving once you get to first. Also, you are suggesting that the catcher caught the ball on Hamilton's HR as he crossed the plate. But he didn't. The ball was still out there in play. There would have been more time.

Scrap Irony
10-25-2011, 09:38 PM
I didn't look up their stats. I'm just gonna take your word that more players that I expected have had 50 sb while having a .240/.300/.300 line. One thing that's worth noting though is that the expectations, offensively, for the shortstop position have changed over the last 30 years. I'm not sure that a player in todays game would accumulate enough abs to have a shot at 50 sb if their ops was .610 or less. Weak hitting starting shortstops were pretty common back then. They're not now. More is expected from them offensively. Now, Dusty might give him 500+ abs so he'd have a shot at 50 sb. But, I'm not sure I'd want that to happen if he had a .240/.300/.300 line. There's a reason that those kind of players aren't as likely to get 500+ abs anymore.

Perhaps, perhaps not.

I simply claimed that, if given an entire season, at his major league floor, I could see a Larry Bowa/ Omar Moreno type of career.

Now, that's not what I claimed his career floor would be, only what he would put up at the major league level. Think Steve Jeltz with speed.

redsfandan
10-25-2011, 09:44 PM
Perhaps, perhaps not.

I simply claimed that, if given an entire season, at his major league floor, I could see a Larry Bowa/ Omar Moreno type of career.

Now, that's not what I claimed his career floor would be, only what he would put up at the major league level. Think Steve Jeltz with speed.

Ok, I guess we could say that it's a possible floor even though it's not likely to happen.

I just think you're expecting alot out of the guy. That's all.

Scrap Irony
10-25-2011, 09:48 PM
Did Molina slow up as he reached second? Even so, Molina may have actually made it to third base. You need to remember, it is slower from home to first than from first to second because you are already moving once you get to first. Also, you are suggesting that the catcher caught the ball on Hamilton's HR as he crossed the plate. But he didn't. The ball was still out there in play. There would have been more time.

Okay, have it your way. Were Bengie Molina to have run when Hamilton hit his inside the park home run, he may have been able to stretch said inside the park homer into a triple.

If the ball were hit in exactly the same place. Against the same team. In the same park. At the same time of day. If he were to be moving from the beginning.

But I'm still pretty sure he's not he's not a zombie.

Scrap Irony
10-25-2011, 09:50 PM
Ok, I guess we could say that it's a possible floor even though it's not likely to happen.

I just think you're expecting alot out of the guy. That's all.

I'm not expecting anything.

I said he had that ceiling. It's not an expectation. It's best case scenario.

I think he'll eventually turn out to be extremely similar to Dee Gordon.

Superdude
10-26-2011, 12:22 AM
Some guys that come to mind when I try to picture Billy Hamilton's career: Otis Nixon, Delino Deshields, Tony Womack, Vince Coleman, Omar Morena, Willie McGee. Some useful players there, but more fun than good.

I think it all comes down to contact rate. If Hamilton can develop into a good to great contact hitter, he'll have significant value. If he keeps striking out 20+ percent of the time as he moves up the ladder, then we've got nothing more than a flashy marketing tool. I hope he figures it out, but in no way should we be counting on it.