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camisadelgolf
10-27-2011, 03:34 AM
Who is Redszone's #6 prospect?

#1 C Devin Mesoraco
#2 1B/OF Yonder Alonso
#3 C Yasmani Grandal
#4 SS Billy Hamilton
#5 SS Zack Cozart

redsfandan
10-27-2011, 04:10 AM
I know people won't like my pick but I don't care. :)~

mth123
10-27-2011, 05:36 AM
Dave Sappelt for me. I have him at 4 on my personal list behind Mes, Cozart and Alonso. I think he can be a starting caliber CF with a lot of range and a better bat than Stubbs or Heisey have and he's the last guy on the list that I view as a highly likely starting caliber position player (except possibly for Grandal who I have at number 5 on my list). From there, there will be a lot more uncertainty for me.

HokieRed
10-27-2011, 07:15 AM
Corcino, just as I had him at 4 and 5.

Kc61
10-27-2011, 07:25 AM
I think Corcino will win this poll, but I went with Box.

Projectable, good minor league numbers, close to the majors.

I think closers are important.

And Box likely could have started had the Reds chosen to go that way.

Stephenson has no track record. Corcino did very well at low A but isn't as projectable.

lollipopcurve
10-27-2011, 07:28 AM
Sappelt

Kc61
10-27-2011, 07:28 AM
I know people won't like my pick but I don't care. :)~

If you mean Frazier, I do like the pick. I have him in the top ten as well.

I think the Reds did Frazier a great service by moving him around the field defensively. He will be a valuable utility man initially and eventually could grow into a set position, perhaps third base, for the Reds or some other team.

JaxRed
10-27-2011, 07:52 AM
I went with Cingrani. Just named Best Starting Pitcher in Short Season by Minor League Baseball. 1.75 ERA .190 Average 51 innings 35 hits 80K's, in a hitters league.

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20111023&content_id=25762350&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb

bubbachunk
10-27-2011, 08:50 AM
I think Corcino will win this poll, but I went with Box.

Projectable, good minor league numbers, close to the majors.

I think closers are important.

And Box likely could have started had the Reds chosen to go that way.

Stephenson has no track record. Corcino did very well at low A but isn't as projectable.

Relief pitches do not have that much value and that is why with the class of prospects the Reds do have, Box should not sniff the top 10.

I went with Soto again although it looks like I may have to a few more times. I do not see anything wrong Corcino though going ahead give his performance and projection.

dougdirt
10-27-2011, 09:33 AM
Corcino. He has good scouting reports and good numbers.

Kc61
10-27-2011, 09:39 AM
Relief pitches do not have that much value and that is why with the class of prospects the Reds do have, Box should not sniff the top 10.

.

Well, I've heard that statement about relief pitchers made around here. They supposedly don't have much value.

I've never thought this was a particularly well-reasoned view. Good late inning relievers are very important. They have an important role in the outcome of games. Some make high salaries. Some make the All Star Game. Some even make the Hall of Fame.

If Box becomes the Reds closer for, say, four seasons, he will have a vital impact on games and seasons.

And I think Boxberger has a good chance of holding down a closer or key setup man role for the Reds. Soon.

Doesn't mean anyone has to vote for him. There are other good candidates. But Box's role as closer-in-waiting shouldn't be held against him.

TRF
10-27-2011, 09:40 AM
I'll keep picking Soto till he's not an option.

lollipopcurve
10-27-2011, 09:57 AM
I went with Cingrani. Just named Best Starting Pitcher in Short Season by Minor League Baseball. 1.75 ERA .190 Average 51 innings 35 hits 80K's, in a hitters league.

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/n...vkey=news_milb

Nice article -- thanks Jax. Some pretty encouraging quotes from Forsch on Cingrani. That's a very nice 3rd round draft choice by the Reds. Cingrani was on the radar per national publications, but not that high, and his numbers looked ugly.

crazybob60
10-27-2011, 10:04 AM
This one is close for me, but I went with Corcino, he is a little farther off from the big league level than some of the other guys, but he does have amazing stuff and I think once he does arrive at the pro level in Cincy, he will be special. He is my #6.

puca
10-27-2011, 10:09 AM
Well, I've heard that statement about relief pitchers made around here. They supposedly don't have much value.

I've never thought this was a particularly well-reasoned view. Good late inning relievers are very important. They have an important role in the outcome of games. Some make high salaries. Some make the All Star Game. Some even make the Hall of Fame.

If Box becomes the Reds closer for, say, four seasons, he will have a vital impact on games and seasons.

And I think Boxberger has a good chance of holding down a closer or key setup man role for the Reds. Soon.

Doesn't mean anyone has to vote for him. There are other good candidates. But Box's role as closer-in-waiting shouldn't be held against him.

I think the reasoning is that many (if not most) premier relievers were primarily starters through their minor league careers and only switched to relief when they reached the majors. This certainly used to be true though I'm not sure it still is. Regardless the perception still exists.

I think Box is a better bet to to help the Reds than most on the list, but unless he forces himself into the closer role his impact will be relatively low.

The DARK
10-27-2011, 10:17 AM
I voted Stephenson based on his stuff and potential. He's the prospect with the greatest ace potential since Homer Bailey, and that's saying something. His high school numbers were unreal as well.

Boxberger and Corcino are nice, but lets not forget how badly Boxberger struggled in AA at the end of last season. He rebounded quite nicely, but it's a reminder that he's still far from a sure thing. Corcino's season was nice as well, but he was playing in a pitcher's league and had worse stats than Josh Smith. I need to see more out of him before I put him this high.

bubbachunk
10-27-2011, 10:33 AM
Well, I've heard that statement about relief pitchers made around here. They supposedly don't have much value.

I've never thought this was a particularly well-reasoned view. Good late inning relievers are very important. They have an important role in the outcome of games. Some make high salaries. Some make the All Star Game. Some even make the Hall of Fame.

If Box becomes the Reds closer for, say, four seasons, he will have a vital impact on games and seasons.

And I think Boxberger has a good chance of holding down a closer or key setup man role for the Reds. Soon.

Doesn't mean anyone has to vote for him. There are other good candidates. But Box's role as closer-in-waiting shouldn't be held against him.

Let's take Mariano Rivera, sure fire hall of famera, as a closer example. His hisest WAR for a single season was 4.8. He only broke 4, two other times in his 17 year career. Or take Eric Gagne's CY Young winning season and see it was only worth 4.3 WAR. So that is why I am going to dock relief pitchers on prospect lists, even the best do not give a ton of value. They are just not on the field enough.

mace
10-27-2011, 10:46 AM
Can't believe we're on the second page and nobody has mentioned Torreyes. Just turned 19. Has excelled in A ball. Career average of .364. OBP of .419. Tremendous defensively. Good speed. Low strikeouts. Advanced instincts. Very professional. And most important, the Dayton club took off--I mean, absolutely soared--the moment he joined it.

BuckeyeRedleg
10-27-2011, 11:42 AM
I voted for Corcino….again.

For me, the next few have to be (in no particular order): Stephenson, Soto, Torreyes, Cingrani, and Boxberger.

Quite amazing that one of those five will be left out of the top 10. Says a lot about how much depth and talent is within this system. And that’s not even including Sappelt, Frazier, Yormon, Lotzkar, Duran, HRod, LaMarre, Vidal, Rosa, and on and on and on……

Wow. This franchise looks to have a great future.

Kc61
10-27-2011, 12:25 PM
Let's take Mariano Rivera, sure fire hall of famera, as a closer example. His hisest WAR for a single season was 4.8. He only broke 4, two other times in his 17 year career. Or take Eric Gagne's CY Young winning season and see it was only worth 4.3 WAR. So that is why I am going to dock relief pitchers on prospect lists, even the best do not give a ton of value. They are just not on the field enough.

The logic of this position is as follows -- if Mariano Rivera, perhaps the greatest closer, was a Reds prospect he should be docked because he is a reliever. Because of the WAR formula, whatever that formula is.

I think this shows more about the limitations of WAR than anything else.

RedsManRick
10-27-2011, 12:49 PM
Let's take Mariano Rivera, sure fire hall of famera, as a closer example. His hisest WAR for a single season was 4.8. He only broke 4, two other times in his 17 year career. Or take Eric Gagne's CY Young winning season and see it was only worth 4.3 WAR. So that is why I am going to dock relief pitchers on prospect lists, even the best do not give a ton of value. They are just not on the field enough.

Some would argue that, because of leverage, the actual impact relievers have on wins is much higher than WAR would suggest. Rivera has a career average leverage index of 1.87, meaningful that while his actual peak run prevention may have only been worth ~48 runs above replacement, those runs were 80% more important from a wins perspective. Doing that math would give him an leverage adjusted WAR of 9!

For reference, leverage index, by definition has to equal out to 1. Position players usually have a leverage index right around 1, SP between .9 and 1 and back of the pen relievers in the .4 to .8 range. You could apply leverage to all players to get a leverage-adjust WAR for all players. You'd find that in a given year, the best relievers grade out pretty well with other elite performers.

All that said, I'm not 100% sold on the logic of doing what I just explained. You have to be careful how you use that approach because you don't want to use those adjusted figures to project performance or decide on salaries for relievers. Since a big chunk of their win value would be based on when they guy played (a managerial decision), you wouldn't want to base a guy's salary on that unless you strongly believed that a player who performed similarly in lesser leverage would have zero chance of sustaining comparable performance in high leverage.

Scrap Irony
10-27-2011, 02:35 PM
Can't believe we're on the second page and nobody has mentioned Torreyes. Just turned 19. Has excelled in A ball. Career average of .364. OBP of .419. Tremendous defensively. Good speed. Low strikeouts. Advanced instincts. Very professional. And most important, the Dayton club took off--I mean, absolutely soared--the moment he joined it.

Love him and likely will vote for him earlier than most, but Corcino is a pitcher and had just as good a season.

Pitching is harder to find and he played a full season. Corcino first, Torreyes next, IMO. (Though Sappelt is good as well.)

dougdirt
10-27-2011, 02:58 PM
The logic of this position is as follows -- if Mariano Rivera, perhaps the greatest closer, was a Reds prospect he should be docked because he is a reliever. Because of the WAR formula, whatever that formula is.

I think this shows more about the limitations of WAR than anything else.

Of course he should be. Rivera is the best at his position ever, but his position is something where there is a plethora of very good options to choose from. Theoretically at least, there are a slew of guys who looking at their ERA's and run distributions, would close 85% of the games they are put into over a full season if given the chance. When a whole bunch of guys can be at least 90% as good (given that you hardly ever see anyone go a full season without a blown save) as the best at their position, it means that their overall individual value is going to be lowered because the pool of options is quite large.

mace
10-27-2011, 03:24 PM
Love him and likely will vote for him earlier than most, but Corcino is a pitcher and had just as good a season.

Pitching is harder to find and he played a full season. Corcino first, Torreyes next, IMO. (Though Sappelt is good as well.)

I guess I see it sort of the opposite. I like Corcino a lot, and have liked him since the organization, practically out of the blue, made him a closer in Billings at age 18. But I can't agree that he had "just as good a season" as Torreyes (not that the season past should be the final word in this sort of evaluation). For most of the year, he wasn't even Dayton's best pitcher. First it was Smith, and for a while it was Renken, and toward the end of the season it might have been Mitch Clarke--not to mention the league-best relief staff, led by Hayes. Though his K/BB rate was outstanding and very promising, I really just can't quite equate Corcino's season at age 20 to Torreyes' at age 18.

Kc61
10-27-2011, 03:39 PM
Of course he should be. Rivera is the best at his position ever, but his position is something where there is a plethora of very good options to choose from. Theoretically at least, there are a slew of guys who looking at their ERA's and run distributions, would close 85% of the games they are put into over a full season if given the chance. When a whole bunch of guys can be at least 90% as good (given that you hardly ever see anyone go a full season without a blown save) as the best at their position, it means that their overall individual value is going to be lowered because the pool of options is quite large.

Yes, but there's a large pool of options for a number of other positions too. Yet we don't discount outfielders, for example.

And while there is a large pool of options for relief pitching generally, IMO the pool of options for superior late innings relievers is smaller.

I happen to believe, and I know this is controversial, that it takes a special ability to pitch well in the late innings out of the pen. I think that special ability cuts down on the size of the pool.

Having said that, all things being equal, I can see favoring starting pitchers in a prospect poll. I cannot see, however, writing off relievers (as some posters do) so that it's virtually impossible for them to be considered in the top rank.

dougdirt
10-27-2011, 03:49 PM
Yes, but there's a large pool of options for a number of other positions too. Yet we don't discount outfielders, for example.
Is there a large pool of outfielders who can be roughly 85-90% as effective as the best outfielders in the game?



And while there is a large pool of options for relief pitching generally, IMO the pool of options for superior late innings relievers is smaller.
There were 83 relievers in baseball last season with a FIP under 3.75. I get a feeling that most of them would convert at least 85% of their save opportunities.



I happen to believe, and I know this is controversial, that it takes a special ability to pitch well in the late innings out of the pen. I think that special ability cuts down on the size of the pool.
That is where we disagree. I happen to think it takes a special ability to NOT be able to pitch in the late innings out of the pen.



Having said that, all things being equal, I can see favoring starting pitchers in a prospect poll. I cannot see, however, writing off relievers (as some posters do) so that it's virtually impossible for them to be considered in the top rank.

I finished up my Top 25 this week. Before I set out, I generally had an idea of where I thought each guy was going to wind up, but what I do is go position by position and create a depth chart in terms of how good a prospect is (I go 7 positions with corner outfield combining LF/RF, then SP and RP) and then start comparing the top player at each position to get the best prospect. Once a guy is added, he is removed from the pool and the players at his position slides up. It helps me organize my thoughts and keep a strong though process going on with who is better than who. Going in, I thought Boxberger would be right around #10, which for me, is pretty darn high. Well, after getting to #10, he wasn't close. It isn't because he isn't good, because in the past, he would have ranked inside the Top 10, I just couldn't justify him over so many other guys. His readiness is outweighed by his limited upside as a reliever, even as a possible closer.

dougdirt
10-27-2011, 03:53 PM
I guess I see it sort of the opposite. I like Corcino a lot, and have liked him since the organization, practically out of the blue, made him a closer in Billings at age 18. But I can't agree that he had "just as good a season" as Torreyes (not that the season past should be the final word in this sort of evaluation). For most of the year, he wasn't even Dayton's best pitcher. First it was Smith, and for a while it was Renken, and toward the end of the season it might have been Mitch Clarke--not to mention the league-best relief staff, led by Hayes. Though his K/BB rate was outstanding and very promising, I really just can't quite equate Corcino's season at age 20 to Torreyes' at age 18.

With all of that said, Torreyes was hardly ever the Dragons best hitter either. He only played in the second half, plus two games. His OPS was .855 for the season. During the same time, Lutz was at .939 and Vidal was at .890, both much better than what Torreyes did.

Now if we want to toss in age, then we certainly have another argument, but if we do that, don't we have to toss aside the 23 year olds in comparison to the 20 year old Corcino for best pitcher? On a scouting side of things, Corcino is in a different class than Torreyes is IMO. That is what separates the two for me.

mace
10-27-2011, 04:50 PM
Good points about the other hitters. That brings up another area that can't really be quantified, but I happen to believe in strongly. Was it coincidence that so many other hitters in the Dayton lineup--including Hamilton--produced so much better during the second half, when Torreyes was there? And was it a coincidence that Dayton was an entirely different team when he was there? I don't know; maybe it was.

I suspect that Torreyes benefited substantially from hitting behind Hamilton. But I also suspect that other Dragons benefited from the presence of Torreyes. That, however, will probably have to remain a matter of conjecture and opinion.

On the age question . . . yes, Corcino was younger than the other pitchers. He should be acknowledged for that. It plays a large part in making him the best prospect on the staff. At the end of the day, though--if we're comparing their seasons--Torreyes was (is) two years younger.

camisadelgolf
10-27-2011, 05:49 PM
I think Corcino will win this poll, but I went with Box . . .
I don't think he has a chance.

bubbachunk
10-27-2011, 06:23 PM
I don't think he has a chance.

More emoticons! :mooner:

mth123
10-27-2011, 07:59 PM
Can't believe we're on the second page and nobody has mentioned Torreyes. Just turned 19. Has excelled in A ball. Career average of .364. OBP of .419. Tremendous defensively. Good speed. Low strikeouts. Advanced instincts. Very professional. And most important, the Dayton club took off--I mean, absolutely soared--the moment he joined it.

I have him at 6 on my personal list behind Mes, Cozart, Alonso, Sappelt and Grandal. The reports on his amazing defense at 2B are what brought him well up my list. The kid looks like he can hit some and if his defense is already major league plus as has been reported, he seems like a fairly safe bet even for a kid so small, young and far away. He is by far my top guy in the 20 and under age group. I actually think there is a gap behind those six to the next tier of prospects (which in my book includes Boxberger, Stephenson, Hamilton, Corcino, Soto, Frazier, H-Rod and Y-Rod).

lollipopcurve
10-28-2011, 08:33 AM
Reminder: Dave Sappelt has 118 major league plate appearances. He turns 25 in January.

His OPS the last 2 years in the minors: .902/.834

His OBP the last 2 years in the minors: .395/.377

He plays good defense -- sometimes his defense looked exceptional in LF for the Reds. He's got speed on the bases.

This guy has been dismissed way too early, IMO.

redsfandan
10-28-2011, 08:46 AM
Reminder: Dave Sappelt has 118 major league plate appearances. He turns 25 in January.

His OPS the last 2 years in the minors: .902/.834

His OBP the last 2 years in the minors: .395/.377

He plays good defense -- sometimes his defense looked exceptional in LF for the Reds. He's got speed on the bases.

This guy has been dismissed way too early, IMO.

The fact that you're talking about left field doesn't mean quite THAT much to me. Center means alot more to me since Stubbs is still, well, Stubbs. But, other than that, you've given me something to think about for my next picks.

mace
10-28-2011, 10:39 AM
Reminder: Dave Sappelt has 118 major league plate appearances. He turns 25 in January.

His OPS the last 2 years in the minors: .902/.834

His OBP the last 2 years in the minors: .395/.377

He plays good defense -- sometimes his defense looked exceptional in LF for the Reds. He's got speed on the bases.

This guy has been dismissed way too early, IMO.

The commentators, etc., remarked often about how Sappelt was being too impatient in his September call-up, swinging at too many first pitches, etc. I don't disagree, but there was another aspect of his performance that I thought undermined him. He seemed to hit an extraordinary number of fly balls to the warning track, or just in front of the track. I wonder if he was seduced by the friendliness of GABP and tried to muscle-up and make an impression. It didn't seem to be his game. It looked like he wasn't overmatched, but just doesn't have the power to do what he was doing. I'm hoping it was an aberration, and next time around those fly balls turn into line drives.

lollipopcurve
10-28-2011, 10:56 AM
The commentators, etc., remarked often about how Sappelt was being too impatient in his September call-up, swinging at too many first pitches, etc. I don't disagree, but there was another aspect of his performance that I thought undermined him. He seemed to hit an extraordinary number of fly balls to the warning track, or just in front of the track. I wonder if he was seduced by the friendliness of GABP and tried to muscle-up and make an impression. It didn't seem to be his game. It looked like he wasn't overmatched, but just doesn't have the power to do what he was doing. I'm hoping it was an aberration, and next time around those fly balls turn into line drives.

Agree with these observations. Did not look overmatched at all. Personally, I'd like to see what would happen if he moved up on the plate a little. He's quick enough not to get jammed, and I thought he gave away the outside corner just a tad. He's got a great stroke, and it's going to play at the big league level.

mdccclxix
10-28-2011, 12:06 PM
I think the Reds need Sappelt's bat, but defensively teams run on his arm. I'm just not sure he can make all the throws and I think Doug has said he's actually better suited for CF than LF. I think chopping off 120 strikeouts from the lineup by replacing Stubbs with Sappelt is a worthy idea. Where does that put Sappelt on this list? I'm not sure yet, it's got to be pretty high.

The DARK
10-28-2011, 01:45 PM
Replacing Stubbs with Sappelt is an idea, but as of right now Sappelt would be a downgrade in most categories. He doesn't have Stubbs's power, stealing ability, or upside, and his OBP will probably only be a minor upgrade from what we've seen. It's not that he'll be a bad player, but as of right now I don't see him as having a regular starting role on the team.

Scrap Irony
10-28-2011, 03:30 PM
Replacing Stubbs with Sappelt is an idea, but as of right now Sappelt would be a downgrade in most categories. He doesn't have Stubbs's power, stealing ability, or upside, and his OBP will probably only be a minor upgrade from what we've seen. It's not that he'll be a bad player, but as of right now I don't see him as having a regular starting role on the team.

Depends on which Stubbs you're talking about, Dark.

Sappelt's power will play better than Stubbs' power from last season and the minors. (He'll get 15 dingers and a whole passel of doubles if he plays everyday.) If all you did was watch his major league audition, you missed most of his power, as he had a lat injury that largely robbed him of power. He'll get better.

He's around a 380 minor league obp. And that profiles better than Stubbs, as the latter continues to struggle with the long swing and sliders off the plate. (Every. Plate. Attempt. :explode:)

There are definitely arguments to be made for Sappelt. (The most convincing, IMO, is that Stubbs has trade value and the Reds need something aside from three CFers who're all pretty much equal in value.)

Kc61
10-28-2011, 06:17 PM
Reminder: Dave Sappelt has 118 major league plate appearances. He turns 25 in January.

His OPS the last 2 years in the minors: .902/.834

His OBP the last 2 years in the minors: .395/.377

He plays good defense -- sometimes his defense looked exceptional in LF for the Reds. He's got speed on the bases.

This guy has been dismissed way too early, IMO.

Funny, I think the opposite. He didn't show power in his MLB stint. He didn't show walks. He doesn't seem like a top of the order guy. He doesn't seem like a middle of the order guy. He doesn't have a great arm.

This spells backup to me. I have read here that Sappelt wasn't healthy so maybe his performance was hampered. Hope he does better next time at full health.

Wouldn't put him in the top ten prospects. Even with the AAA stats.

Superdude
10-28-2011, 06:45 PM
Funny, I think the opposite. He didn't show power in his MLB stint. He didn't show walks. He doesn't seem like a top of the order guy. He doesn't seem like a middle of the order guy. He doesn't have a great arm.

This spells backup to me. I have read here that Sappelt wasn't healthy so maybe his performance was hampered. Hope he does better next time at full health.

Wouldn't put him in the top ten prospects. Even with the AAA stats.

He looked incredibly underwhelming with the Reds. I'm holding out hope that a healthy Sappelt actually has some authority in his swing, but I'm a little hesitant right now until I see it.

The DARK
10-28-2011, 11:05 PM
Depends on which Stubbs you're talking about, Dark.

Sappelt's power will play better than Stubbs' power from last season and the minors. (He'll get 15 dingers and a whole passel of doubles if he plays everyday.) If all you did was watch his major league audition, you missed most of his power, as he had a lat injury that largely robbed him of power. He'll get better.

He's around a 380 minor league obp. And that profiles better than Stubbs, as the latter continues to struggle with the long swing and sliders off the plate. (Every. Plate. Attempt. :explode:)

There are definitely arguments to be made for Sappelt. (The most convincing, IMO, is that Stubbs has trade value and the Reds need something aside from three CFers who're all pretty much equal in value.)

Once Sappelt can start showing us that kind of skill regularly, I'll believe it. Don't get me wrong, he's talented and can be a great contributor. He's got the speed. His defense is good overall. When he's not so nervy, he gets on base a lot. But as of right now, he's still limited... he doesn't steal, he doesn't hit for a lot of power, and he doesn't have that arm... and all that drives down his value quite a bit. He'd make a good platoon CF with Heisey. But in that case, you're relying on two uncertain platoons in the outfield, a rookie SS and C, and a big question mark at 3B, and do we really want to be that kind of team heading into next season?

The argument that Stubbs has trade value is a valid one, but you can't forget that he is still young and has a lot of upside left to show. If he can refine his swing and get comfortable hitting .260 regularly with his below-average HR total from this year, he'll be one of our top contributors. And even that's assuming that he won't take that step forward that we thought we would this year. We'd be selling him remarkably low, especially with BJ Upton on the market as well, who will bring down the price for a guy like Stubbs.