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View Full Version : Arroyo un-moveable? Maybe not.



Dan
10-27-2011, 06:42 AM
MLBTR (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/10/al-central-notes-cabrera-jimenez-sizemore.html)


Rany Jazayerli explores the starting pitching trade market from the perspective of the Royals and lists A.J. Burnett, Bronson Arroyo, Ryan Dempster, Carlos Zambrano, Wandy Rodriguez and Ted Lilly as arms Moore could pursue. These possible targets have substantial contracts to go along with experience and some ability.

redsfandan
10-27-2011, 07:06 AM
Could the Reds trade Arroyo? Sure, anything's possible. But, it would probably have to be a deal where a couple more players, like Francisco and Bailey, AND cash were included AND with the Reds not receiving alot in return.

The Operator
10-27-2011, 07:13 AM
Could the Reds trade Arroyo? Sure, anything's possible. But, it would probably have to be a deal where a couple more players, like Francisco and Bailey, AND cash were included AND with the Reds not receiving alot in return.I don't think it would take that much.

If The Reds basically offer him up for free to anyone who takes the contract, you might be surprised to see some teams interested. I don't think they'd need to include money, another pitcher, and a promising hitter just to get someone to take him off our hands. And if that was the case, they'd be foolish to even think about it.

redsfandan
10-27-2011, 07:19 AM
If the Reds offer him up for free to anyone that is willing to take his contract they'd be hoping some team thinks his name was Vernon Wells. Yeah, that's possible but it's far from a lock to happen and if they wanted any kind of decent return they'd have to include more.

The Operator
10-27-2011, 07:48 AM
But that's what I'm saying - who cares about the return? If you have to throw in money and valuable players just to get back something decent for him, just give him away. That or hold onto him.

dunner13
10-27-2011, 08:34 AM
His contract isn't that bad, not like its 18 million for 7 more years or something. Considering he was sick/hurt most of last year I could see some team taking a chance on him if they didnt have to give up much in prospects.

Chip R
10-27-2011, 09:28 AM
Renember, he has 5 & 10 rights.

Homer Bailey
10-27-2011, 10:12 AM
Renember, he has 5 & 10 rights.

Not yet. Cot's has him at 8.15 years service time, although I'm not sure that includes 2011 yet.

redsmetz
10-27-2011, 10:54 AM
Not yet. Cot's has him at 8.15 years service time, although I'm not sure that includes 2011 yet.

Of course, if it doesn't include this season, it still would be just 9.15 years. Part of what it might take to move him is for him to agree to renegotiate the clauses that kick in if he's traded. That's a big "if", but it could happen. I'm not sure it would happen going to the Royals, but one never knows.

757690
10-27-2011, 11:32 AM
Veteran starting pitching is going to be in high demand this off season, since both the Red Sox and Yankees have that on top of their shopping lists, so anything's possible. Even with Arroyo's deferred payment kicking in, he's affordable to both teams.

The Red Sox have been rumored to want to move Youk for starting pitching, which might be a good matchup.

RedsManRick
10-27-2011, 12:57 PM
Word is the Yankees may pursue Beltran. Perhaps we could interest them in a Swisher/Arroyo+ swap (of course, I'd prefer Gardner, but I think the Yankees recognize his value). Of course, Arroyo has 10/5 rights and given his love for Boston, I'm not sure he'd want to wear pinstripes.

Homer Bailey
10-27-2011, 02:01 PM
Word is the Yankees may pursue Beltran. Perhaps we could interest them in a Swisher/Arroyo+ swap (of course, I'd prefer Gardner, but I think the Yankees recognize his value). Of course, Arroyo has 10/5 rights and given his love for Boston, I'm not sure he'd want to wear pinstripes.

Where are people getting this? I'm not seeing this anywhere. Is there something I'm missing?

HeatherC1212
10-27-2011, 02:04 PM
Where are people getting this? I'm not seeing this anywhere. Is there something I'm missing?

Its my understanding that it's 10 years of MLB service time (started with Pirates I believe up through RS and now Reds) and at least 5 years with the same club (which he more than has with the Reds). I thought he was eligible for this after this past season too. My only confusion is how much MLB service time he had before going to Boston. :confused:

REDREAD
10-27-2011, 02:10 PM
The Reds could easily trade Arroyo without kicking in cash if they were willing to accept no talent in return. Easily.
Think about it.. If you are looking for a veteran pitcher at that price range and you only want to commit to 2 more years (Correct me if I am wrong, but isn't Bronson only signed two more years?).. There's not many options.. Most FAs won't sign a deal that short.

Bronson had a bad year, no doubt.. but he's a good rebound candidate.

The problem the Reds have is that beyond Leake and Cueto, everyone is a question mark in the rotation.. But let's sort them out.. Of Chapman/Wood/Volquez/Arroyo/Homer.. Who is most likely to pitch 180+ innings and have an ERA better than 4.50? I think I would have to pick Bronson. Homer may have more talent at this point, but he gets hurt every year.

However, I wouldn't cry if Bronson was traded and the money was spent somewhere else. I just don't think Bronson is a total albotross.

Homer Bailey
10-27-2011, 02:10 PM
Its my understanding that it's 10 years of MLB service time (started with Pirates I believe up through RS and now Reds) and at least 5 years with the same club (which he more than has with the Reds). I thought he was eligible for this after this past season too. My only confusion is how much MLB service time he had before going to Boston. :confused:

Yep, and I noted above that per Cot's he has 8.15 years of service time, but can't be positive that includes this year. Even if it doesn't, that puts him at 9.15 years, so he doesn't have 10 and 5 rights by my count. However, I wasn't positive that service time is that is used in this clause, or if its total seasons played in the MLB (if that makes any sense).

RedsManRick
10-27-2011, 02:37 PM
Where are people getting this? I'm not seeing this anywhere. Is there something I'm missing?

I shouldn't have asserted this as a matter of fact. I just assumed he had the 10 years of service. Assuming Cot's is correct through the beginning of 2011, it does seem he's at just 9.15. He only pitched in 53 games in Pittsburgh (29 starts) over 2+ years as he was up and down on the roster. He then had 2 full seasons and a tiny touch of a 3rd in Boston. Add in 6 with the Reds and there you.

Score!

http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/cincinnati-reds_24.html

Patrick Bateman
10-27-2011, 02:46 PM
Word is the Yankees may pursue Beltran. Perhaps we could interest them in a Swisher/Arroyo+ swap (of course, I'd prefer Gardner, but I think the Yankees recognize his value). Of course, Arroyo has 10/5 rights and given his love for Boston, I'm not sure he'd want to wear pinstripes.

I don't see how that makes sense for the Yanks.

Swisher would have decent trade value even at his contract and would be easy to move so i don't think he really matches up with Arroyo very well.

I think any Arroyo trade would either have the Reds eating the bulk of his contract or a swap for just as bad a contract. Before Lackey's injury, a swap of them with the salaries being equalized might have made sense.

Dan
10-27-2011, 02:55 PM
Baseball Reference (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/arroybr01.shtml) has him at 9.15 as of 01/2012. So he doesn't yet have 10/5 rights.

Scrap Irony
10-27-2011, 03:06 PM
Veteran starting pitching is going to be in high demand this off season, since both the Red Sox and Yankees have that on top of their shopping lists, so anything's possible. Even with Arroyo's deferred payment kicking in, he's affordable to both teams.

The Red Sox have been rumored to want to move Youk for starting pitching, which might be a good matchup.

Arroyo and Bailey for Youkilis work for anyone?

I'm fairly certain that'd work for Boston, as both would be upgrades over what they threw out there last season. Too, they may really like the upside of Bailey and the innings of Arroyo.

While it does make sense, I only think this would work out if Boston struck out on the free agent market. Which would be hard to believe.

Vottomatic
10-27-2011, 03:24 PM
If you could trade Arroyo for nothing in return just to unload his contract, you have to do it.

If Votto is traded, you know it will be for some pitching too.

And there is still that possible Shields trade out there.

Also rumors for Jonathan Sanchez of the Giants.

Danny Serafini
10-27-2011, 03:28 PM
It's 9.150, not 9.15, which makes a bigger difference than it appears. That number after the decimal isn't a fraction, it's the number of days. Arroyo has 9 years and 150 days of service time, which means he'll hit the 10 year mark in April, not September if he only had 9 years and 15 days.

REDREAD
10-27-2011, 03:58 PM
The problem is that in order to contend next year, we're going to need someone like the 2010 version of Arroyo in the rotation (desperately).

Sure, if we can replace Arroyo with Shields.. no one will object. But IMO, you can't trade away Arroyo until a replacement is secured.. Having Chapman, Homer, and Wood/Volquez at the back of the rotation is a recipe for disaster.

camisadelgolf
10-27-2011, 06:06 PM
Arroyo gains his 10/5 rights about 3 weeks after Opening Day. He is owed $27M, and half of that's deferred. If he's traded, the $13.5M must be paid upfront by the Reds. I can't imagine a single deal in which the Reds write a check for $13.5M, give up a pitcher who has had 7 good years and only 1 bad year as a starter, and receive something that justifies both of those happening. If the Red Sox say, "Hey, here's $13.5M, Scott Atchison, and a player to be named later," I'd really have to consider the deal, but I don't see it happening. The Reds don't have enough money to spare paying Arroyo's bonus, and I don't know a single team that would think Arroyo is worth $27M for a 35- and 36-year-old Arroyo.

757690
10-27-2011, 06:32 PM
Arroyo gains his 10/5 rights about 3 weeks after Opening Day. He is owed $27M, and half of that's deferred. If he's traded, the $13.5M must be paid upfront by the Reds. I can't imagine a single deal in which the Reds write a check for $13.5M, give up a pitcher who has had 7 good years and only 1 bad year as a starter, and receive something that justifies both of those happening. If the Red Sox say, "Hey, here's $13.5M, Scott Atchison, and a player to be named later," I'd really have to consider the deal, but I don't see it happening. The Reds don't have enough money to spare paying Arroyo's bonus, and I don't know a single team that would think Arroyo is worth $27M for a 35- and 36-year-old Arroyo.

That's really not much for the Yankees and Red Sox. They both have taken much bigger gambles with much more money at stake than that in just the last few years.

Yankees gave $35M to Soriano just to set up, and $20M to Marte and Faliciano to be middle relievers.

Not saying they would do it, but I don't think the money would stop either team.

RedsManRick
10-27-2011, 06:37 PM
The problem is that in order to contend next year, we're going to need someone like the 2010 version of Arroyo in the rotation (desperately).

Sure, if we can replace Arroyo with Shields.. no one will object. But IMO, you can't trade away Arroyo until a replacement is secured.. Having Chapman, Homer, and Wood/Volquez at the back of the rotation is a recipe for disaster.

We need to remember that the "2010 version of Arroyo" was a guy with a 4.61 FIP and .239 BABIP. Yeah, we need a guy who gives us 215 IP with an ERA south of 4. But 2012 Arroyo is not at all likely to be next year's "2010 version of Arroyo".

Trading Arroyo is not trading away the 2010 version of him. That guy was a mirage. We don't currently have one of those. A realistic bounce-back season from the real Arroyo is 200 innings of a 4.40 ERA -- that's the potential you're trading away. And that's something the Red Sox or Yankees would value and pay for. It's not something the Reds should pay for if that money, paired with some talent being traded away, can land us a legit #1/2.

nate
10-27-2011, 09:04 PM
We need to remember that the "2010 version of Arroyo" was a guy with a 4.61 FIP and .239 BABIP. Yeah, we need a guy who gives us 215 IP with an ERA south of 4. But 2012 Arroyo is not at all likely to be next year's "2010 version of Arroyo".

Trading Arroyo is not trading away the 2010 version of him. That guy was a mirage. We don't currently have one of those. A realistic bounce-back season from the real Arroyo is 200 innings of a 4.40 ERA -- that's the potential you're trading away. And that's something the Red Sox or Yankees would value and pay for. It's not something the Reds should pay for if that money, paired with some talent being traded away, can land us a legit #1/2.

Word.

Improving the pitching is likely to have as much to do with replacing Arroyo's innings with league average as it does acquiring a good SP.

Vottomatic
10-28-2011, 07:13 AM
Cueto
Leake
Bailey - if he can stay healthy, I think 2012 is his year to turn the corner.
Shields - by trade
J. Sanchez - by trade

redsfandan
10-28-2011, 08:24 AM
We need to remember that the "2010 version of Arroyo" was a guy with a 4.61 FIP and .239 BABIP. Yeah, we need a guy who gives us 215 IP with an ERA south of 4. But 2012 Arroyo is not at all likely to be next year's "2010 version of Arroyo".

Trading Arroyo is not trading away the 2010 version of him. That guy was a mirage. We don't currently have one of those. A realistic bounce-back season from the real Arroyo is 200 innings of a 4.40 ERA -- that's the potential you're trading away. And that's something the Red Sox or Yankees would value and pay for. It's not something the Reds should pay for if that money, paired with some talent being traded away, can land us a legit #1/2.
Let's remember that the dh would probably make that era more like 4.60-4.70 or higher.

Plus Plus
10-28-2011, 10:49 AM
Cueto
Leake
Bailey - if he can stay healthy, I think 2012 is his year to turn the corner.
Shields - by trade
J. Sanchez - by trade

I personally wouldn't use any "real" assets to obtain Jonathan Sanchez. I feel that he is essentially a left handed Volquez who makes more money and has a no-hitter.

Inconsistent strike throwers with high-end stuff always look way more alluring when they are in other organizations...

And to bring back one of my favorite all-time RedsZone quotes (made by Falls City Beer):


If I'm going for it, I want Jason Vorhees, not Draco Malfoy.

Use assets on guys who make a huge difference and will absolutely crush the opposition. There is no reason to trade major assets for pitchers who won't give the Reds a chance to win every single game that they start, and I don't think that pursuing a Jonathan Sanchez or someone of that ilk fits the bill.

Will M
10-28-2011, 11:21 AM
Cueto
Leake
Bailey - if he can stay healthy, I think 2012 is his year to turn the corner.
Shields - by trade
J. Sanchez - by trade

Cueto
Leake
Bailey
Shields for Alonso/Grandal
Wandy for Stubbs/Volquez

This would require an increase in the payroll but IMO thats a rotation that can win the NL Central.

redsfandan
10-28-2011, 12:12 PM
Cueto
Leake
Bailey
Shields for Alonso/Grandal
Wandy for Stubbs/Volquez

This would require an increase in the payroll but IMO thats a rotation that can win the NL Central.

Yeah it is but I'm not sure there'd be enough starts to go around.

Vottomatic
10-28-2011, 01:30 PM
I personally wouldn't use any "real" assets to obtain Jonathan Sanchez. I feel that he is essentially a left handed Volquez who makes more money and has a no-hitter.

Inconsistent strike throwers with high-end stuff always look way more alluring when they are in other organizations...

And to bring back one of my favorite all-time RedsZone quotes (made by Falls City Beer):



Use assets on guys who make a huge difference and will absolutely crush the opposition. There is no reason to trade major assets for pitchers who won't give the Reds a chance to win every single game that they start, and I don't think that pursuing a Jonathan Sanchez or someone of that ilk fits the bill.


Well, if Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Felix Hernandez, and all the other aces aren't available or affordable, in regard to the Reds payroll, then you have to consider pitchers who are available and who are affordable.

Obviously, you'd simply pass on Sanchez.

I read a few weeks back that Sanchez will be available for trade. Giants are going with Zito ($19M in 2012, $20M in 2013), Cain ($15.3M in '12), Lincecum, Bumgarner (Age 22, 3.21 e.r.a. in '11, makes minimum), and Ryan Vogelsong (13-7, 2.71 e.r.a. in '11, makes the minimum), with Eric Surkamp as their 6th option. Sanchez is considered on the trading block. He made $4.8M last year according to Cot's, only made 19 starts in '11, and is arbitration eligible. Lincecum is due a raise, and Giants are going young with Bumgarner, Vogelsong, and possibly Surkamp to offset the increased cost of Lincecum. Atleast that is what I read.

I'd consider it. Giants need hitters badly. Very badly. Reds have some positions blocked at the majors with hitters ready to contribute in the minors that they could trade.

RedsManRick
10-28-2011, 01:32 PM
How many more homres does Sanchez allow in GABP compared to AT&T? With all of those walks? No way.

Will M
10-28-2011, 01:54 PM
Yeah it is but I'm not sure there'd be enough starts to go around.

for me Arroyo should be on the outside looking in after his terrible 2011. he'd be my 6th starter and start the year in the pen if everyone is healthy. knowing that everyone is very unlikely to be healthy all year long i bet any teams #6 starter gets 18 starts in a year. if Arroyo is our #5 starter and pitches like he did last year we have a very tough task ahead of us. he could also get WORSE. folks seem to think he'll bounce back. he might. but to count on it and pencil him in for 32 starts with a 4.50 era would be a bad decision on the Reds part.

Scrap Irony
10-28-2011, 02:31 PM
Well, if Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Felix Hernandez, and all the other aces aren't available or affordable, in regard to the Reds payroll, then you have to consider pitchers who are available and who are affordable.

Obviously, you'd simply pass on Sanchez.

I read a few weeks back that Sanchez will be available for trade. Giants are going with Zito ($19M in 2012, $20M in 2013), Cain ($15.3M in '12), Lincecum, Bumgarner (Age 22, 3.21 e.r.a. in '11, makes minimum), and Ryan Vogelsong (13-7, 2.71 e.r.a. in '11, makes the minimum), with Eric Surkamp as their 6th option. Sanchez is considered on the trading block. He made $4.8M last year according to Cot's, only made 19 starts in '11, and is arbitration eligible. Lincecum is due a raise, and Giants are going young with Bumgarner, Vogelsong, and possibly Surkamp to offset the increased cost of Lincecum. Atleast that is what I read.

I'd consider it. Giants need hitters badly. Very badly. Reds have some positions blocked at the majors with hitters ready to contribute in the minors that they could trade.

If I'm dealing with The G-Men, I'm looking at relief help.

A Drew Stubbs for Sergio Romo and a prospect deal looks like it could help both teams. Romo becomes the closer with Arredondo and another arm (Wood? Rauch? Grabow?) as the set-up guys. Boxberger, LeCure, Bray, and Ondrusek/ Fisher/ Horst/ FA pick-ups vie for the last spot with the failed starters.

Strong pen, that. No old guys to rely on, no big salaries. Everyone controlled for a good long time or imminently fungible. Good arms, good stuff, good peripherals.

Benihana
10-30-2011, 01:10 AM
Cueto
Leake
Bailey
Shields for Alonso/Grandal
Wandy for Stubbs/Volquez

This would require an increase in the payroll but IMO thats a rotation that can win the NL Central.

I'd combine this scenario with Scrap's proposal (Bailey + Arroyo for Youkilis) and go with a rotation of:

Cueto
Shields
Leake
Wandy
Wood/Chapman

REDREAD
10-31-2011, 12:57 PM
We need to remember that the "2010 version of Arroyo" was a guy with a 4.61 FIP and .239 BABIP. Yeah, we need a guy who gives us 215 IP with an ERA south of 4. But 2012 Arroyo is not at all likely to be next year's "2010 version of Arroyo".

Trading Arroyo is not trading away the 2010 version of him. That guy was a mirage. We don't currently have one of those. A realistic bounce-back season from the real Arroyo is 200 innings of a 4.40 ERA -- that's the potential you're trading away. And that's something the Red Sox or Yankees would value and pay for. It's not something the Reds should pay for if that money, paired with some talent being traded away, can land us a legit #1/2.

I agree with you that Arroyo may not have a sub 4.00 ERA next year (or whatever metric is used as adequate). He's a risk, no doubt.
I guess my comment was meant to say that I have even less faith in Homer, Wood, or Volquez pulling off a 200 IP 4.50 ERA season than Arroyo.
This season showed that the rotation desperately needs an innings eater that can give quality starts on a regular basis.. Arroyo is no sure
thing, but I think he's the best candidate of the options we have (mainly because Homer is such an injury risk).

I think Arroyo will be better next year. Maybe not sub-4.00 ERA, but he will be a positive contributor.

Kc61
10-31-2011, 01:39 PM
Another 200 innings of the current version of Bronson Arroyo would be a disaster for the Reds in 2012. I highly doubt they will put him in long relief, or give him a long DL stint to "get going." If he is healthy, he will pitch.

He throws so many innings that, when he has a bad year, the result is disastrous. 200 innings of 5.07 pitching with 46 HRs allowed is a huge problem for any team to overcome.

Given Arroyo's salary, I think the Reds would give him continued chances to pitch next year. Even if he doesn't turn things around on the mound.

Of course, he could have a transformation. But the risk of pitching him every fifth day is very large because you just can't have 200 innings of 5.07.

So I think the Reds would be wise to trade Arroyo if there is an acceptable deal for his contract. Even if there is little return, other than salary relief.

If Arroyo pitches elsewhere and does well in 2012, you live with it.

REDREAD
10-31-2011, 04:51 PM
Well, the Braves just traded Derek Lowe (after eating cash to reduce his salary to 5 million) and are getting a prospect.
That tells me that Bronson is tradable, if the Reds really wanted to do it.

camisadelgolf
10-31-2011, 06:08 PM
I don't think this trade indicates that Arroyo is easily movable. Let's compare what needs to happen for Arroyo and Lowe to be traded.
Braves lose: Derek Lowe + $10M
Indians receive: Derek Lowe, owed $5M
Braves receive: ptbnl

Reds lose: Bronson Arroyo + $13.5M
undetermined team receives: Bronson Arroyo, owed $13.5M
Reds receive: ?

If Lowe is owed 'only' $5M, I can't help but think the Reds would need to receive something less than a ptbnl for a team to take on Arroyo and the $13.5M he is owed through 2013. In other words, I don't think they could even give him away right now.

757690
10-31-2011, 06:19 PM
I don't think this trade indicates that Arroyo is easily movable. Let's compare what needs to happen for Arroyo and Lowe to be traded.
Braves lose: Derek Lowe + $10M
Indians receive: Derek Lowe, owed $5M
Braves receive: ptbnl

Reds lose: Bronson Arroyo + $13.5M
undetermined team receives: Bronson Arroyo, owed $13.5M
Reds receive: ?

If Lowe is owed 'only' $5M, I can't help but think the Reds would need to receive something less than a ptbnl for a team to take on Arroyo and the $13.5M he is owed through 2013. In other words, I don't think they could even give him away right now.

Two points to add the equation:

Lowe was traded to the Indians. Similar market to the Reds. Who knows what a big market team would offer.

The ptbnl is Chris Jones, an actual prospect. Similar to Horst, but younger.

I agree trading Arroyo will be difficult, but this trade does make it look like it is possible.

REDREAD
10-31-2011, 11:23 PM
I don't think this trade indicates that Arroyo is easily movable. Let's compare what needs to happen for Arroyo and Lowe to be traded.
Braves lose: Derek Lowe + $10M
Indians receive: Derek Lowe, owed $5M
Braves receive: ptbnl

Reds lose: Bronson Arroyo + $13.5M
undetermined team receives: Bronson Arroyo, owed $13.5M
Reds receive: ?

If Lowe is owed 'only' $5M, I can't help but think the Reds would need to receive something less than a ptbnl for a team to take on Arroyo and the $13.5M he is owed through 2013. In other words, I don't think they could even give him away right now.

At least you defend your sig :)
Man, of course there's no way to know for sure if someone would trade for Arroyo, but the guy has had an excellent track record until this past year. He's also only 34 (Lowe is 38).. Bronson had mono issues last year.

If you had to pick one.. Bronson or Lowe.. Which would you guess would have the better year next year? I would say Bronson.

You have a point that Bronson is signed for 2 more years, but he's 4 years younger than Lowe, so it's less of an issue.

camisadelgolf
10-31-2011, 11:39 PM
Arroyo may be expected to play better than Lowe next year, but the Braves are paying 2/3 of what's left on Lowe's contract. If the Reds did that, they'd be paying another team $18M, and I don't see any possible way the Reds could find a deal that makes it worth it for them to pay $13.5M-$18M for Arroyo to play elsewhere.

757690
11-01-2011, 01:00 AM
Arroyo may be expected to play better than Lowe next year, but the Braves are paying 2/3 of what's left on Lowe's contract. If the Reds did that, they'd be paying another team $18M, and I don't see any possible way the Reds could find a deal that makes it worth it for them to pay $13.5M-$18M for Arroyo to play elsewhere.

The Yankees and Red Sox will be looking to acquire 4-6 starting pitchers just between them.

The Rangers, Angels, Cubs, and Dodgers will be lookig for starters.

There are not enough veteran starting pitchers available to fill all those needs. Big market teams will be overpaying for veteran arms. There's a chance that one of them will be willing to overpay for Arroyo. I wouldn't bet on it, but there's a chance.

camisadelgolf
11-01-2011, 01:51 AM
I have no doubt that there are multiple teams are interested in Arroyo for the right price, but I don't see what offer a team could make that would make it worth Cincinnati's while. Besides, it's not like the Reds have no use for a veteran pitcher that can throw lots of innings. And fwiw, if you're a believer in veteran presence, Arroyo's currently the oldest pitcher on the team by more than five years (Masset).

mth123
11-01-2011, 02:23 AM
I hated the Arroyo extension, but I've generally been a supporter of what Arroyo brings to the table. Arroyo sounds committed to doing what is necessary to get his health and stamina back over the off-season. He should be recovered from the mono and coupled with a relatively lower innngs total in 2011, I'd expect we may see Arroyo bounce back a bit and may even regain a little on his fast ball. He won't be an ace by any means, but I think he'll be a decent option as an innings eating guy at the back of the rotation who can still put a gem up there once in a while.

I'm guesing Arrroyo rebounds to around 225 innings with an ERA in the 4.25 to 4.50 range and that's OK if its taken for what it is. IMO, Arroyo won't be the Reds problem in 2012. The problem is that the team will need 3 or 4 starters better than Arroyo and I don't think they have them at this point. Cueto is clearly better and Leake will probably be slightly better. Everybody else is a question mark. There is reason to hope that all of the others (Bailey, Chapman, Wood, Volquez) could be better than what I've projected for Arroyo, but they are all just hopes at this point. At least one guy who isn't just a hope needs to be added. Somebody who has a track record along with continued health is needed to remove the uncertaintly that comes not from Arroyo, but from all those other question marks.

redsfandan
11-01-2011, 06:17 AM
The Yankees and Red Sox will be looking to acquire 4-6 starting pitchers just between them.

The Rangers, Angels, Cubs, and Dodgers will be lookig for starters.

There are not enough veteran starting pitchers available to fill all those needs. Big market teams will be overpaying for veteran arms. There's a chance that one of them will be willing to overpay for Arroyo. I wouldn't bet on it, but there's a chance.

This is wishful thinking. Just because a team has more money to play with doesn't mean that they won't want a similar deal to the Lowe trade. Yes, those teams can afford more big contracts but they still have to be smart about who gets those big contracts. And Arroyo wouldn't have as much appeal if the other team is on the hook for $28.5 million for 2 years (since the $15 million in deferrals would be voided and paid up-front if he was traded). Arroyo isn't good enough to justify that price. Not when they can go after Darvish, Buehrle, Kuroda, Vazquez, Maholm, Colon, Bedard, ... starting pitchers that can be better than Arroyo, less expensive, or both. I don't think even the big payroll teams would give that much money to Arroyo when he's essentially a #4 starter. No, right now, those teams with big payrolls will look for the good starting pitchers (fa's or trade targets) that are becoming too expensive for the rest of the teams first. Then, they'll take a chance on somone else instead and wait until June if they still need starting pitching. But, even if the return doesn't matter the Reds would still have to eat some money for another team to take Arroyo.

Vottomatic
11-01-2011, 08:57 AM
The Yankees and Red Sox will be looking to acquire 4-6 starting pitchers just between them.

The Rangers, Angels, Cubs, and Dodgers will be lookig for starters.

There are not enough veteran starting pitchers available to fill all those needs. Big market teams will be overpaying for veteran arms. There's a chance that one of them will be willing to overpay for Arroyo. I wouldn't bet on it, but there's a chance.

I think this post speaks volumes about how bad the Reds chances are of acquiring more pitching this offseason with all these other larger market teams in need of pitching.

757690
11-01-2011, 09:41 AM
W
This is wishful thinking. Just because a team has more money to play with doesn't mean that they won't want a similar deal to the Lowe trade. Yes, those teams can afford more big contracts but they still have to be smart about who gets those big contracts. And Arroyo wouldn't have as much appeal if the other team is on the hook for $28.5 million for 2 years (since the $15 million in deferrals would be voided and paid up-front if he was traded). Arroyo isn't good enough to justify that price. Not when they can go after Darvish, Buehrle, Kuroda, Vazquez, Maholm, Colon, Bedard, ... starting pitchers that can be better than Arroyo, less expensive, or both. I don't think even the big payroll teams would give that much money to Arroyo when he's essentially a #4 starter. No, right now, those teams with big payrolls will look for the good starting pitchers (fa's or trade targets) that are becoming too expensive for the rest of the teams first. Then, they'll take a chance on somone else instead and wait until June if they still need starting pitching. But, even if the return doesn't matter the Reds would still have to eat some money for another team to take Arroyo.

There just aren't that many veteran starting pitchers available. Of the ones you listed, Vasquez is retiring, Kuroda isn't leaving the Dodgers, no one knows if Darvish will even be available, and Colon & Bedard are bigger unknowns than Arroyo.

Of the free-agent pitchers, only Edwin Jackson and Mark Beuhrle are definitely better options than Arroyo, and there are around 10 starting pitching slots that big market team's need to fill.

I agree it's wishful thinking, but it's not pure fantasy.

redsfandan
11-01-2011, 04:34 PM
W

There just aren't that many veteran starting pitchers available. Of the ones you listed, Vasquez is retiring, Kuroda isn't leaving the Dodgers, no one knows if Darvish will even be available, and Colon & Bedard are bigger unknowns than Arroyo.

Of the free-agent pitchers, only Edwin Jackson and Mark Beuhrle are definitely better options than Arroyo, and there are around 10 starting pitching slots that big market team's need to fill.

I agree it's wishful thinking, but it's not pure fantasy.

Are you gonna guarantee that Vasquez is retiring? I wouldn't.

Maybe Kuroda won't leave the Dodgers but one of the six teams that you listed in your previous post was the Dodgers.

I haven't seen much doubt about Darvish coming over and when he does arrive he won't be going to Tampa.

Which "unknown" do you think teams would rather have: Bedard, Colon, or Arroyo? Which has the higher upside? (not Arroyo) Which will be the most expensive? (Arroyo)

I'd disagree that Buehrle and Jackson will be the ONLY starting pitcher options that are better than Arroyo. That's crazy. But, we've only mentioned some of the veteran pitchers that they'll look at and then there'll be the trade targets and minor league guys. If you're saying that a team would be interested in a back of the rotation guy for 2 years/$28.5 million I do think that's pure fantasy.

Scrap Irony
11-01-2011, 05:18 PM
W
Of the free-agent pitchers, only Edwin Jackson and Mark Beuhrle are definitely better options than Arroyo, and there are around 10 starting pitching slots that big market team's need to fill.

Cough* CJ Wilson *Cough