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mdccclxix
11-01-2011, 05:54 PM
www.700wlw.com

I'll be playing the Jocketty interview backwards to find clues about Votto/Bautista/Shields/Supertrade. Until then we can look for the recaps from Chip R, I hope.

dougdirt
11-01-2011, 07:19 PM
They just talked about how they know that teams will be knocking down the Reds door for Chris Heisey. I can only hope so. If that is the case, trade him quickly and be happy about it. Heisey is a solid player. I can't imagine anyone beating down the door for a guy who has never played a full season who just came off a year with a .309 OBP.

Mario-Rijo
11-02-2011, 08:36 AM
They just talked about how they know that teams will be knocking down the Reds door for Chris Heisey. I can only hope so. If that is the case, trade him quickly and be happy about it. Heisey is a solid player. I can't imagine anyone beating down the door for a guy who has never played a full season who just came off a year with a .309 OBP.

I think if I were projecting players forward Heisey can be as good or better than alot of the players on this team. And personally I believe the odds for him are better than average. I wouldn't be so quick to move him. He is a 5 tooler in my eyes and the best part is he has already shown willing & able to take good instruction when it's available and improve his game. Frankly I think it would be a mistake to deal him now when his value isn't at it's highest. Now guys like Stubbs, Alonso & Francisco who may prove to be as good as they will ever be need to be the ones dealt. Stubbs has seemingly always resisted change to some extent. Alonso and Francisco just don't seem able to change/improve much.

If I am gambling on futures I go with guys both willing and able to change/grow/improve like Heisey and Sappelt. Dedication to their craft and the ability to adjust are as big as talent and skill.

redsfandan
11-02-2011, 09:20 AM
www.700wlw.com

I'll be playing the Jocketty interview backwards to find clues about Votto/Bautista/Shields/Supertrade. Until then we can look for the recaps from Chip R, I hope.

I only caught parts. I just remember that Marty and Thom said that Chicago picked up the option for Aramis Ramirez. Woops. Well, they were only half right.

dougdirt
11-02-2011, 09:44 AM
I think if I were projecting players forward Heisey can be as good or better than alot of the players on this team. And personally I believe the odds for him are better than average. I wouldn't be so quick to move him. He is a 5 tooler in my eyes and the best part is he has already shown willing & able to take good instruction when it's available and improve his game. Frankly I think it would be a mistake to deal him now when his value isn't at it's highest. Now guys like Stubbs, Alonso & Francisco who may prove to be as good as they will ever be need to be the ones dealt. Stubbs has seemingly always resisted change to some extent. Alonso and Francisco just don't seem able to change/improve much.

If I am gambling on futures I go with guys both willing and able to change/grow/improve like Heisey and Sappelt. Dedication to their craft and the ability to adjust are as big as talent and skill.

Chris Heisey is NOT a five tool player. The guy is not a hitter for average.

As for Alonso not being able to change/improve much.... where does he need to improve that is possible? He isn't going to ever turn into a fast runner/non first baseman, so where can he truly improve his game by any sort of realistic magnitude?

lollipopcurve
11-02-2011, 10:08 AM
They just talked about how they know that teams will be knocking down the Reds door for Chris Heisey.

I hope they keep Heisey and deal Stubbs. Heisey has never had a full-time opportunity in the majors -- would be interesting to see what he could do with 500+ABs. IMO, Reds need more guys who have fought their way from obscurity, like Heisey, Hanigan, Sappelt.

mdccclxix
11-02-2011, 10:28 AM
Things that stuck:

- Thom mentioned that a top exec from the Giants wrote a report 2 years ago about Cozart, while he was in Dayton, that he would be the Reds franchise SS for 10-12 years. On the cusp of a starting role in 2012, that gets me excited.

- Lot's of zeroing in on Stubbs K's, even during LF discussion.

CySeymour
11-02-2011, 10:47 AM
- Lot's of zeroing in on Stubbs K's, even during LF discussion.

That stood out to me as well. And what was worse, no one stopped to realize that Heisey's K rate is almost as bad as Stubbs, but Stubb's OBP and walk rate are better then Heisey's.

Benihana
11-02-2011, 11:22 AM
Things that stuck:

- Thom mentioned that a top exec from the Giants wrote a report 2 years ago about Cozart, while he was in Dayton, that he would be the Reds franchise SS for 10-12 years. On the cusp of a starting role in 2012, that gets me excited.


I could see this happening. I am really looking forward to what Cozart can do over the course of a full season in Cincinnati. Hopefully, he'll be the best SS we've had since #11 left town.

osuceltic
11-02-2011, 11:34 AM
They just talked about how they know that teams will be knocking down the Reds door for Chris Heisey. I can only hope so. If that is the case, trade him quickly and be happy about it. Heisey is a solid player. I can't imagine anyone beating down the door for a guy who has never played a full season who just came off a year with a .309 OBP.

Trade Bruce, put Heisey in right. Probably a slight drop in production, but not as great as the salary difference between the players (probably about $4 mill next season and increasing every year after). Bruce would command a lot more in return than Heisey would at this point.

Benihana
11-02-2011, 11:49 AM
Trade Bruce, put Heisey in right. Probably a slight drop in production, but not as great as the salary difference between the players (probably about $4 mill next season and increasing every year after). Bruce would command a lot more in return than Heisey would at this point.

:rolleyes:

reds1869
11-02-2011, 11:55 AM
Trade Bruce, put Heisey in right. Probably a slight drop in production, but not as great as the salary difference between the players (probably about $4 mill next season and increasing every year after). Bruce would command a lot more in return than Heisey would at this point.

4/3/1987

12/14/1984

Those are two very important dates to remember when comparing Bruce and Heisey.

mdccclxix
11-02-2011, 11:58 AM
4/3/1987

12/14/1984

Those are two very important dates to remember when comparing Bruce and Heisey.

....and?

reds1869
11-02-2011, 12:01 PM
....and?

Age is a very important factor when evaluating players. Those are Bruce and Heisey's birthdays. The fact that Bruce is younger than Heisey and out-producing him as a full time player says to me that Bruce is the better long term option. Especially since he is locked up in a very affordable long term deal.

Chip R
11-02-2011, 12:03 PM
www.700wlw.com (http://www.700wlw.com)

I'll be playing the Jocketty interview backwards to find clues about Votto/Bautista/Shields/Supertrade. Until then we can look for the recaps from Chip R, I hope.

Unfortunately I won't be doing them any more. I jsut don't have the time and it's usually on the web anyway.

Vottomatic
11-02-2011, 12:28 PM
All this hate directed at Heisey, but Bruce and Stubbs aren't called on the carpet?

Heisey projects to hit more HR's in a season than either of them. If Stubbs would hit 35-40 HR's, I think we'd overlook the 200 K's. Heisey's stats projected out to like 32-35 HR's this season.

And if other teams are beating down the Reds door for the guy, what does that tell you about the Reds and their knowledge of their own players? I seriously doubt it's because they know Heisey can't hit this or that. It's simply because Stubbs and Bruce were #1 picks and Heisey wasn't. That's all that matters to these idiot organizations anymore. So what if you invested more in the #1 pick. They should be happy a later round pick emerged and turned out to have some quality. At what point do you give someone else a chance and move on from the guy who isn't improving?

reds1869
11-02-2011, 12:44 PM
All this hate directed at Heisey, but Bruce and Stubbs aren't called on the carpet?

Who exactly is directing hate at Heisey?

osuceltic
11-02-2011, 01:01 PM
4/3/1987

12/14/1984

Those are two very important dates to remember when comparing Bruce and Heisey.

Sure. But Bruce is in his fourth season and regressed slightly in Year 4. He may just be what he is, which is fine and all but not that much better than Heisey.

REDREAD
11-02-2011, 01:08 PM
Unfortunately I won't be doing them any more. I jsut don't have the time and it's usually on the web anyway.

You just don't have the dedication that Richard Hand used to.. I am disappointed :laugh:

Dan
11-02-2011, 01:19 PM
You just don't have the dedication that Richard Hand used to.. I am disappointed :laugh:

There's a difference between dedication and self-delusional obsession. :eek:

bucksfan2
11-02-2011, 01:40 PM
4/3/1987

12/14/1984

Those are two very important dates to remember when comparing Bruce and Heisey.

Does being born on December 14th make him a superstar?

You know what else is a cool date? 2/10/1976. That is the date Lance Berkman was born on. The same Lance Berkman who played a pivotal role in helping the Cards win the World Series.

Youth gives you hope until youth is no longer valid.

Strikes Out Looking
11-02-2011, 02:09 PM
Unfortunately I won't be doing them any more. I jsut don't have the time and it's usually on the web anyway.

Thanks for doing them in the past; reading your summaries were much more enjoyable than actually listening to the show.

Does anyone know if WLW is going to post the show as a stand-alone podcast and if they are, when?

REDREAD
11-02-2011, 02:11 PM
All this hate directed at Heisey, but Bruce and Stubbs aren't called on the carpet?

Heisey projects to hit more HR's in a season than either of them. If Stubbs would hit 35-40 HR's, I think we'd overlook the 200 K's. Heisey's stats projected out to like 32-35 HR's this season.

And if other teams are beating down the Reds door for the guy, what does that tell you about the Reds and their knowledge of their own players? I seriously doubt it's because they know Heisey can't hit this or that. It's simply because Stubbs and Bruce were #1 picks and Heisey wasn't. That's all that matters to these idiot organizations anymore. So what if you invested more in the #1 pick. They should be happy a later round pick emerged and turned out to have some quality. At what point do you give someone else a chance and move on from the guy who isn't improving?

I think they are exaggerating about teams "beating down the door" for Heisey.
Remember, the hot stove league is all about stirring up excitement/hope for next year.
IMO, Heisey is a step below Stubbs, and a huge step below Bruce.
Heisey might be starter material eventually, but right now, it's doubtful.
Honestly, his story reminds me a lot of the excitement that happened when Chris Dickerson was brought up.. He was a matyr that never got a "real chance" to play.. In reality, the Reds knew Dickerson was a part time player and used him wisely.

reds1869
11-02-2011, 02:21 PM
Youth gives you hope until youth is no longer valid.

True. But the fact stands that Bruce is younger than Heisey and Heisey has a career OPS 25 points lower than Bruce. I like Heisey, but he has never done anything to suggest he will at any point be better than Jay Bruce. By the way, Bruce's "regression" this season? It was his second best season as a big leaguer.

Kc61
11-02-2011, 02:21 PM
I really don't care much at this point who the Reds keep and who they trade. Obviously, I want good deals. But I assume they will pull the trigger on reasonable trades and I will live with whatever deals they decide to make. I'd be much more upset if they are inactive, as usual, and just add some scrap heap FAs in February.

In looking at Heisey's numbers, one thing that stands out is his high rate of batted fly balls. Heisey's GO/FO rate lifetime is .65, in 2011 it was .62. Very low. Extreme fly ball hitter.

Most well-rounded hitters are around a 1.0 GO/FO rate or even slightly favor the ground ball side. Votto lifetime is 1.23. Pujols is .94. Holliday is 1.13. Kemp is 1.03. To give some examples.

Heisey probably benefits at GABP from all the fly balls - in terms of homers, that is. But it doesn't help his BA or OBP to hit so many flies.

Bruce too is a fly ball hitter, but his lifetime of .85 is still much better than Heisey's number. (Bruce's 2011 GO/FO rate of .72 was not very good.)

Stubbs' lifetime rate is .99, which is quite in the mainstream for good hitters. Of course, Stubbs K rate is another story. . . .

Ghosts of 1990
11-02-2011, 04:03 PM
We're talking about dealing Votto and Bruce. Who would have thunk it? it's not even 2012 and we have just a playoff series sweep to show for it all.

Did anyone think that our mighty window of competing would be this short? Some teams have it good with their young cornerstones and I have came to the conclusion that we are just never going to be one of those teams.

dougdirt
11-02-2011, 04:04 PM
All this hate directed at Heisey, but Bruce and Stubbs aren't called on the carpet?

Heisey projects to hit more HR's in a season than either of them. If Stubbs would hit 35-40 HR's, I think we'd overlook the 200 K's. Heisey's stats projected out to like 32-35 HR's this season.

And if other teams are beating down the Reds door for the guy, what does that tell you about the Reds and their knowledge of their own players? I seriously doubt it's because they know Heisey can't hit this or that. It's simply because Stubbs and Bruce were #1 picks and Heisey wasn't. That's all that matters to these idiot organizations anymore. So what if you invested more in the #1 pick. They should be happy a later round pick emerged and turned out to have some quality. At what point do you give someone else a chance and move on from the guy who isn't improving?

Chris Heisey had the same exact average as 2010 and a lower OBP than in 2010. He improved his power in 2011 from 2010. He walked less as well.

As for your last question, Drew Stubbs improved from 2009 to 2010. Then took a step backwards from 2010 to 2011. Does that mean he quit improving or that its a blip on the radar in the overall scheme of things? I don't think anyone can say one way or the other at this point, so suggesting that it does mean he has quit improving is probably a bit of a rush to judgement. I mean if one year of going backwards means they are done improving, is Joey Votto done improving? I mean he took a really large step backwards this year too.

dougdirt
11-02-2011, 04:06 PM
We're talking about dealing Votto and Bruce. Who would have thunk it? it's not even 2012 and we have just a playoff series sweep to show for it all.

Did anyone think that our mighty window of competing would be this short? Some teams have it good with their young cornerstones and I have came to the conclusion that we are just never going to be one of those teams.

The Reds dealing both Bruce and Votto before Votto's contract is up is about 1,000,000,000 to 1. It simply is not going to happen.

And I still like our chances for 2012. And 2013. And 2014. And 2015. Our team is full of young players. Our farm system is stacked with depth and good talent at the top.

Vottomatic
11-02-2011, 04:12 PM
The Reds dealing both Bruce and Votto before Votto's contract is up is about 1,000,000,000 to 1. It simply is not going to happen.

And I still like our chances for 2012. And 2013. And 2014. And 2015. Our team is full of young players. Our farm system is stacked with depth and good talent at the top.

I sure hope Walt isn't thinking this way.

He'll pick some spare parts up off the scrap heap and that will be our only offseason moves. Yikes.

_Sir_Charles_
11-02-2011, 04:21 PM
We're talking about dealing Votto and Bruce. Who would have thunk it? it's not even 2012 and we have just a playoff series sweep to show for it all.

Did anyone think that our mighty window of competing would be this short? Some teams have it good with their young cornerstones and I have came to the conclusion that we are just never going to be one of those teams.

I know I'm sure not talking about dealing EITHER of them away. And personally, I think the ones who are are speaking from emotion rather than logic (not all, but some). Those two young players should be the cornerstone of this franchise. They should be doing everything in their power to extend Votto. I know I for one am tired of the constant "rebuild" mode. You get an MVP player...you KEEP him.

osuceltic
11-02-2011, 04:41 PM
True. But the fact stands that Bruce is younger than Heisey and Heisey has a career OPS 25 points lower than Bruce. I like Heisey, but he has never done anything to suggest he will at any point be better than Jay Bruce. By the way, Bruce's "regression" this season? It was his second best season as a big leaguer.


Bruce just completed his fourth season and it was a step back from his third season. When you stop seeing progress, the youth argument loses its teeth

Chris Heisey this season in 308 plate appearances: .254 / .309 / .487 / .797 OPS / 113 OPS+ / 18 HR / 50 RBI

Jay Bruce this season in 664 plate appearances: .256 / .341 / .474 / .814 OPS / 119 OPS+ / 32 HR / 97 RBI

Heisey+(return from Bruce trade)+payflex > than Bruce+(return from Heisey trade)+Bruce salary

George Anderson
11-02-2011, 04:46 PM
Bruce just completed his fourth season and it was a step back from his third season. When you stop seeing progress, the youth argument loses its teeth



This guy had a major step back in his fourth season at the age of 23.

I am glad we didn't give up on him.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/benchjo01.shtml

757690
11-02-2011, 04:52 PM
This guy had a major step back in his fourth season at the age of 23.

I am glad we didn't give up on him.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/benchjo01.shtml

Yeah, but the Reds had a young Bill Plummer who was ready to replace him. ;)

MikeS21
11-02-2011, 04:57 PM
Ah how I love off season hot stove league talk. Every one wants to trade somebody, but few can agree on precisely which players to trade. For every five people who want to trade Stubbs and keep Heisey, there will be five more who want to trade Heisey and keep Stubbs ... and all ten will have stats to back up their point of view.

It will make no difference what Jocketty does this off season, it will be the wrong decision according to a large percentage of folks around here.

osuceltic
11-02-2011, 05:02 PM
This guy had a major step back in his fourth season at the age of 23.

I am glad we didn't give up on him.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/benchjo01.shtml

So he's Johnny Bench?

Or is he this guy (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/driesda01.shtml)?

George Anderson
11-02-2011, 05:07 PM
So he's Johnny Bench?

Or is he this guy (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/driesda01.shtml)?

He could end up being Clint Hurdle for all we know.

Great players don't always progress steadily every year, but when you have a young player with the tools Bruce has then it is important to show patience.

osuceltic
11-02-2011, 05:11 PM
And just to be clear -- I'm not saying Heisey will be as good as Bruce. I'm saying the dropoff from Bruce to Heisey isn't going to be as significant as some seem to think, and you can get a heck of a lot more for Bruce in trade than you can for Heisey.

Now, might Bruce explode and turn into the player everyone wants him to be somewhere else? Sure. He won't go to a more LH hitter-friendly park. But it's certainly possible that he'll put it all together. But I'll wager he'll never be as good as another guy the Reds traded away recently, and the franchise survived that. And, if Jocketty is as good as I think he is, he will get a lot more for Bruce than the Reds got in that last deal.

osuceltic
11-02-2011, 05:16 PM
He could end up being Clint Hurdle for all we know.

Great players don't always progress steadily every year, but when you have a young player with the tools Bruce has then it is important to show patience.

Like B.J. Upton and the Rays? How's that working out?

I don't think the Cardinals are losing any sleep tonight over what Colby Rasmus will become.

Four years, including a regression in the most recent season, is plenty patient.

*BaseClogger*
11-02-2011, 05:45 PM
History isn't littered with great players who hadn't reached their full potential by the age of 24? Please.

I like Chris Heisey, but lets not put too much stock into what he did as a part-time player this season. Didn't Paul Janish teach us anything in 2011 about what part-time players can do offensively when they are exposed everyday?

lollipopcurve
11-02-2011, 05:48 PM
I like Chris Heisey, but lets not put too much stock into what he did as a part-time player this season. Didn't Paul Janish teach us anything in 2011 about what part-time players can do offensively when they are exposed everyday?

Paul Janish's season taught us about Paul Janish. That's it.

*BaseClogger*
11-02-2011, 05:53 PM
Paul Janish's season taught us about Paul Janish. That's it.

Okay. Chris Stynes. The name doesn't matter. How many players have had excellent partial seasons for the Reds over the last decade, been counted on as starters, and then failed?

dougdirt
11-02-2011, 06:25 PM
Drew Stubbs > Chris Heisey on defense.
Chris Heisey > Drew Stubbs in power.
Drew Stubbs > Chris Heisey on the base paths.
Drew Stubbs = Chris Heisey just about everywhere else.

So it really comes down to what you think is more valuable.... power or defense and speed on the basepaths. Both players have serious warts on their resume. Both players strike out a ton. Chris Heisey doesn't walk much at all.

icehole3
11-02-2011, 07:39 PM
Thanks for doing them in the past; reading your summaries were much more enjoyable than actually listening to the show.

Does anyone know if WLW is going to post the show as a stand-alone podcast and if they are, when?

Reds Hot Stove League 11-1-11
http://www.700wlw.com/cc-common/podcast/single_page.html?podcast=reds_hot_stove_league

Lance talks to Walt Jocketty
http://www.700wlw.com/player/?station=WLW-AM&program_name=podcast&program_id=LanceMcAlister.xml&mid=21549965

camisadelgolf
11-02-2011, 07:42 PM
I think being a pinch-hitter so often has hurt Heisey's patience at the plate. More plate appearances would help that if you ask me. But overall, it's an easy decision for me--I'm taking Stubbs over Heisey every time.

mth123
11-02-2011, 09:11 PM
My 2 cents. As Doug said, no one knows, but this is what I'd assume when building the roster.

1. Chris Heisey's career year will not be as good as what will become a routine season for Jay Bruce.

2. Heisey can still improve and be a decent starting caliber guy in the Cody Ross mold, but most teams would look for better and prefer that guy as a 350 PA per year role player.

3. The League has figured Drew Stubbs out. They know he'll lay-off fat ones early in the count and get behind. Then they can make him expand his zone a bit since he has to protect the plate with 2 strikes. He'll continue to K a lot, make a lot of poor contact, walks a healthy amount as a side-effect and hit it a mile occassionally when the pitcher makes a mistake late in the count. He gets walks and hits some homers, but it really isn't from him being a good hitter or having any kind of a clue out there. I have little confidence that he'll improve in this area and believe his offense will continue to degrade. Defensively, for all the pleasant sight that his defense provides, it really doesn't do a whole lot better than average when it comes to converting batted balls into outs. He has trouble going back on the ball, plays too deep and the consequence is too many balls fall in for hits in front of him to make him deserve the elite rep that just watching him smoothly glide from gap to gap leads you to believe. His value is down, but I'd shop him now because I'm guessing it drops farther as he becomes arb eligible next year and has one less year of control.

I'd like to keep Bruce as a centerpiece, keep Heisey as an important role player, deal Stubbs before his value disappears.

RED VAN HOT
11-02-2011, 09:49 PM
3. The League has figured Drew Stubbs out. They know he'll lay-off fat ones early in the count and get behind. Then they can make him expand his zone a bit since he has to protect the plate with 2 strikes. He'll continue to K a lot, make a lot of poor contact, walks a healthy amount as a side-effect and hit it a mile occassionally when the pitcher makes a mistake late in the count. He gets walks and hits some homers, but it really isn't from him being a good hitter or having any kind of a clue out there. I have little confidence that he'll improve in this area and believe his offense will continue to degrade. Defensively, for all the pleasant sight that his defense provides, it really doesn't do a whole lot better than average when it comes to converting batted nalls into outs. He has trouble going back on the ball, plays too deep and the consequence is too many balls fall in for hits in front of him to make him deserve the elite rep that just watching him smoothly glide from gap to gap leads you to believe. His value is down, but I'd shop him now because I'm guessing it drops farther as he becomes arb eligible next year and has one less year of control.

I'd like to keep Bruce as a centerpiece, keep Heisey as an important role player, deal Stubbs before his value disappears.

I completely agree. If it came down to the need of a highlight play in CF to save a game, I'd rather have Heisey out there than Stubbs. Stubbs gets less out of his natural ability than any other Reds player. Let's hope that this year he realizes what his game and best value to the team really is.

membengal
11-02-2011, 09:54 PM
Unfortunately I won't be doing them any more. I jsut don't have the time and it's usually on the web anyway.

Truly terrible news, but understandable. Thanks so much for doing those in past years, they were a must read. And, did provide a huge service. Whenever I would try and listen myself, I found too much of it unlistenable when the callers were let through. Your humor in your write-ups was so much better.

At any rate, thanks again for the pieces over the years. They were awesome.

dougdirt
11-02-2011, 09:57 PM
I completely agree. If it came down to the need of a highlight play in CF to save a game, I'd rather have Heisey out there than Stubbs. Stubbs gets less out of his natural ability than any other Reds player. Let's hope that this year he realizes what his game and best value to the team really is.

Stubbs defense > Heisey defense

And what natural ability isn't Stubbs utilizing?

Rojo
11-02-2011, 10:02 PM
I like mdccclxix's hypothesis that Stubbs is "soft". I don't necessarily think he'll regress further but I'm betting that he'll be "potential-plagued" throughout his career.

BuckeyeRedleg
11-02-2011, 11:10 PM
You know what else is a cool date? 2/10/1976. That is the date Lance Berkman was born on.

Ha ha. The same date my wife was born on. I mentioned that to her during the WS (that she and Berkman were born on the same day) and she was like, "how would you know that?"

RED VAN HOT
11-02-2011, 11:16 PM
Stubbs defense > Heisey defense

And what natural ability isn't Stubbs utilizing?

I have noticed Stubbs taking poor routes to the ball, sometimes turning the wrong way and then having to recover. He is not quick to read balls. He does not go back on balls well. He can make up for this somewhat with his speed. Still, I trust Heisey more either going back or coming in for difficult catches.

As for using his ability, his game should be speed. You are not using that when you K over 200 times with a long swing that seemed to reflect a belief that he is a HR hitter. If he shortened his stroke and improved his contact rate, his speed would produce a substantially higher OBP and opportunity for SB's and first to third advances. He is strong enough that it probably would not even decrease his HR totals. In short, I think he is leaving a lot of runs on the table.

dougdirt
11-02-2011, 11:38 PM
I have noticed Stubbs taking poor routes to the ball, sometimes turning the wrong way and then having to recover. He is not quick to read balls. He does not go back on balls well. He can make up for this somewhat with his speed. Still, I trust Heisey more either going back or coming in for difficult catches.

As for using his ability, his game should be speed. You are not using that when you K over 200 times with a long swing that seemed to reflect a belief that he is a HR hitter. If he shortened his stroke and improved his contact rate, his speed would produce a substantially higher OBP and opportunity for SB's and first to third advances. He is strong enough that it probably would not even decrease his HR totals. In short, I think he is leaving a lot of runs on the table.
That is where we disagreee. Stubbs game should be power because power is a lot more valuable than speed when it comes to offense. With that said, I have no issue at all with him shortening up his swing if he can to improve his contact rate. But I don't want him to shorten and soften his swing to try and become a soft swinger who simply tries to make contact rather than drive the ball.

As for Heisey/Stubbs and making difficult catches.... I think Stubbs makes catches standing that Heisey has to dive for.

Ron Madden
11-03-2011, 04:18 AM
Trade Bruce, put Heisey in right. Probably a slight drop in production, but not as great as the salary difference between the players (probably about $4 mill next season and increasing every year after). Bruce would command a lot more in return than Heisey would at this point.

I know that I'll get hammered for my opinion but here it is.

As much as I like Brandon Phillips, I'd rather Walt trade him than Jay Bruce.

I'll duck and cover now.

Ron Madden
11-03-2011, 04:22 AM
Unfortunately I won't be doing them any more. I jsut don't have the time and it's usually on the web anyway.

Very sad news. :(

icehole3
11-03-2011, 05:37 AM
Unfortunately I won't be doing them any more. I jsut don't have the time and it's usually on the web anyway.

translation: 'I'm getting old"...j/k chip, I'll miss your thoughts they were like you were reading my mind :)

redsfandan
11-03-2011, 06:13 AM
3. The League has figured Drew Stubbs out. They know he'll lay-off fat ones early in the count and get behind. Then they can make him expand his zone a bit since he has to protect the plate with 2 strikes. He'll continue to K a lot, make a lot of poor contact, walks a healthy amount as a side-effect and hit it a mile occassionally when the pitcher makes a mistake late in the count. He gets walks and hits some homers, but it really isn't from him being a good hitter or having any kind of a clue out there. I have little confidence that he'll improve in this area and believe his offense will continue to degrade. Defensively, for all the pleasant sight that his defense provides, it really doesn't do a whole lot better than average when it comes to converting batted balls into outs. He has trouble going back on the ball, plays too deep and the consequence is too many balls fall in for hits in front of him to make him deserve the elite rep that just watching him smoothly glide from gap to gap leads you to believe. His value is down, but I'd shop him now because I'm guessing it drops farther as he becomes arb eligible next year and has one less year of control.
When I think of Stubbs I think of a player with an obvious problem with contact but also a player that might be the Reds version of the Diamondbacks Chris Young. He's not perfect but, as long as we don't ask for too much from him, he's not bad. If a team makes a great offer for him, fine. But, my main concern with Stubbs is that Dusty will give him too many abs leading off cuz of his speed when he shouldn't cuz of his obp.

redsfandan
11-03-2011, 06:14 AM
I know that I'll get hammered for my opinion but here it is.

As much as I like Brandon Phillips, I'd rather Walt trade him than Jay Bruce.

I'll duck and cover now.

Understandable. Phillips is more expensive and since he is older his productions is more likely to diminish over the next few years while Bruce is more likely to improve.

I prefer keeping both guys but there's more than one way to do things.

Strikes Out Looking
11-03-2011, 09:19 AM
Reds Hot Stove League 11-1-11
http://www.700wlw.com/cc-common/podcast/single_page.html?podcast=reds_hot_stove_league

Lance talks to Walt Jocketty
http://www.700wlw.com/player/?station=WLW-AM&program_name=podcast&program_id=LanceMcAlister.xml&mid=21549965

Gracias, amigo!

REDREAD
11-03-2011, 10:44 AM
3. The League has figured Drew Stubbs out. They know he'll lay-off fat ones early in the count and get behind. .

True, Stubbs has flaws, but this one seems correctable if Stubbs is a little more aggressive earlier in the count. Maybe this will never be corrected in real life, but at least it's not a hopeless flaw.

cumberlandreds
11-03-2011, 11:06 AM
Unfortunately I won't be doing them any more. I jsut don't have the time and it's usually on the web anyway.

Hate to hear that. Your reports were informative and entertaining. That's a hard combo to do but you did it wonderfully.

TRF
11-03-2011, 12:24 PM
Stubbs defense > Heisey defense

And what natural ability isn't Stubbs utilizing?

His power. and as you state his game SHOULD be power.

Stubbs is not a leadoff hitter. He'll never be one. He shouldn't be one. His speed is an asset, a complement to his real game 6-7th hitter in the lineup, preferably 7th. Hit up to 30 HR's, certainly possible with his frame.

The problem is the Reds desperately want him to be a slap hitting SB demon. They drool because he's in scoring position on 1st base with his speed. Problem is, he has trouble getting to first with that approach.

And none of this is Stubbs fault. This is on the Reds as an organization. Bat him 7th, let him club some HR's, get some singles. watch him steal 2B, forcing the opposing pitcher to walk the 8 hitter to get to the pitcher. There is value in that.

Kc61
11-03-2011, 01:55 PM
His power. and as you state his game SHOULD be power.

Stubbs is not a leadoff hitter. He'll never be one. He shouldn't be one. His speed is an asset, a complement to his real game 6-7th hitter in the lineup, preferably 7th. Hit up to 30 HR's, certainly possible with his frame.

The problem is the Reds desperately want him to be a slap hitting SB demon. They drool because he's in scoring position on 1st base with his speed. Problem is, he has trouble getting to first with that approach.

And none of this is Stubbs fault. This is on the Reds as an organization. Bat him 7th, let him club some HR's, get some singles. watch him steal 2B, forcing the opposing pitcher to walk the 8 hitter to get to the pitcher. There is value in that.


The Reds don't want Stubbs to become a slap hitter. I think that's a bit unfair to the organization.

The Reds want Stubbs to bunt more and shorten up on his swing - so he will make more contact. And have a chance to have successful at bats.

The guy just struck out over 200 times in a season. The Reds want him to avoid that by hitting the ball more successfully. Whether he bats leadoff, seventh, or wherever.

I just can't buy the notion that "none of this is Stubbs fault." If anything, he should be following the Reds' approach more. Drew's approach -- repeatedly getting down in the count and then missing on strike three -- has to stop.

TRF
11-03-2011, 03:12 PM
The Reds don't want Stubbs to become a slap hitter. I think that's a bit unfair to the organization.

The Reds want Stubbs to bunt more and shorten up on his swing - so he will make more contact. And have a chance to have successful at bats.

The guy just struck out over 200 times in a season. The Reds want him to avoid that by hitting the ball more successfully. Whether he bats leadoff, seventh, or wherever.

I just can't buy the notion that "none of this is Stubbs fault." If anything, he should be following the Reds' approach more. Drew's approach -- repeatedly getting down in the count and then missing on strike three -- has to stop.

He's been miscast as a leadoff hitter his entire career. the one time he truly had offensive success was last year, when he hit lower in the order, when being a bit more aggressive at the plate is generally more accepted.

Sure some of this is on Stubbs. A lot more is on the Reds for not understanding what his true strengths are, and what type of player he is.

redsfandan
11-03-2011, 03:18 PM
The Reds don't want Stubbs to become a slap hitter. I think that's a bit unfair to the organization.

The Reds want Stubbs to bunt more and shorten up on his swing - so he will make more contact. And have a chance to have successful at bats.

The guy just struck out over 200 times in a season. The Reds want him to avoid that by hitting the ball more successfully. Whether he bats leadoff, seventh, or wherever.

I just can't buy the notion that "none of this is Stubbs fault." If anything, he should be following the Reds' approach more. Drew's approach -- repeatedly getting down in the count and then missing on strike three -- has to stop.

They want him to be a leadoff hitter when he's not one. Yes, he needs to make improvements. But they need to stop forcing him to fill a role that he's not cut out for. He can still work on things while hitting lower in the lineup. Giving him 400+ abs leading off won't help the Reds in 2012 though.

dougdirt
11-03-2011, 06:10 PM
His power. and as you state his game SHOULD be power.

Stubbs is not a leadoff hitter. He'll never be one. He shouldn't be one. His speed is an asset, a complement to his real game 6-7th hitter in the lineup, preferably 7th. Hit up to 30 HR's, certainly possible with his frame.

The problem is the Reds desperately want him to be a slap hitting SB demon. They drool because he's in scoring position on 1st base with his speed. Problem is, he has trouble getting to first with that approach.

And none of this is Stubbs fault. This is on the Reds as an organization. Bat him 7th, let him club some HR's, get some singles. watch him steal 2B, forcing the opposing pitcher to walk the 8 hitter to get to the pitcher. There is value in that.

It sounds more like the Reds are holding Stubbs back, not him holding it back, so I wouldn't say he isn't utilizing it.

Mario-Rijo
11-03-2011, 07:46 PM
Chris Heisey is NOT a five tool player. The guy is not a hitter for average.

As for Alonso not being able to change/improve much.... where does he need to improve that is possible? He isn't going to ever turn into a fast runner/non first baseman, so where can he truly improve his game by any sort of realistic magnitude?

What I said was he (Heisey) is one to me and what I meant by that is he is a 5 tooler in waiting if you will. That he isn't right now is of no consequence to me. That he isn't one a year from now might have a bigger impact, we'll see. I don't look so much at what one is, I try to envision what they can be. And to me Heisey is a tweak or 2 away from being a very good starting player. He runs well, he has enough pop, he has a good arm, he has good baseball instincts and again he has proven both willing and able to improve upon deficiencies. So that he isn't currently a guy who hits for a good average doesn't mean he can't be.

With all due respect to your position as someone who follows prospects don't tell me what the guy is or isn't so much that is pretty evident to all of us when they have reached the show. Tell me why he can or can't be a much better version of himself. 3 years ago if someone argued Jose Bautista with you what would you have said about him, would it have been relevant? My guess is you would have argued the guy was not ever likely to be much better than a marginal starter and I probably would have agreed with you then. But I'm guessing someone with Toronto envisioned Bautista improving a great deal and they were right. Of course to be fair to myself I didn't watch Bautista enough to have called it myself, ;). But in all seriousness I know I'm not a professional hitting guru but there are some things anyone can see and I can see Heisey has room for improvement in his swing and he is the type of guy who is gonna get the best out of himself before it's all said and done.

As for Alonso I believe he does have good work ethic himself but the problem I see there is it takes more than willingness it also takes ability. He's not very athletic in any way so there isn't much room for him to grow. Your right he's never gonna be a great runner or anything but a 1B but he isn't even real good at 1B. Kind of a mediocre glove and of course not a lot of range or flexibility over there. Also I still believe his swing is too long but I guess we'll see as his numbers to this point don't bear that out but it's too soon to jump to any conclusions with any degree of certainty. Again willing but just perhaps not able. I think we have seen the best Yonder Alonso has to offer, the more he plays the more apparent it will become that he is a poor mans Carlos Pena at his best.

Mario-Rijo
11-03-2011, 08:10 PM
When it comes to who to trade I think it depends largely on how others see the player and by others I mean other GM's and since we don't know that I take alot of RZ's opinions as such. If there is any forum capable it's here so it's as good as any opinion available to us. The general feeling is Stubbs is on the decline, Heisey is a good 4th OF, Alonso is on the way up, Francisco is talented but odds are against him ever quite making it but it's not out of the realm of possibility etc. So with how opinions are at the time of the trade and how I feel about the players I think the prime guy to deal is Alonso. Any of them are tradeable for the right price but Alonso seems to be the biggest ticket. Of course I am against trading away Votto or Bruce so I am personally not even entertaining what I feel is rubbish. If you want to be good you build around good and not try to out think yourself and trade for what might be good.

dougdirt
11-03-2011, 09:30 PM
What I said was he (Heisey) is one to me and what I meant by that is he is a 5 tooler in waiting if you will. That he isn't right now is of no consequence to me. That he isn't one a year from now might have a bigger impact, we'll see. I don't look so much at what one is, I try to envision what they can be. And to me Heisey is a tweak or 2 away from being a very good starting player. He runs well, he has enough pop, he has a good arm, he has good baseball instincts and again he has proven both willing and able to improve upon deficiencies. So that he isn't currently a guy who hits for a good average doesn't mean he can't be.

With all due respect to your position as someone who follows prospects don't tell me what the guy is or isn't so much that is pretty evident to all of us when they have reached the show. Tell me why he can or can't be a much better version of himself. 3 years ago if someone argued Jose Bautista with you what would you have said about him, would it have been relevant? My guess is you would have argued the guy was not ever likely to be much better than a marginal starter and I probably would have agreed with you then. But I'm guessing someone with Toronto envisioned Bautista improving a great deal and they were right. Of course to be fair to myself I didn't watch Bautista enough to have called it myself, ;). But in all seriousness I know I'm not a professional hitting guru but there are some things anyone can see and I can see Heisey has room for improvement in his swing and he is the type of guy who is gonna get the best out of himself before it's all said and done.

As for Alonso I believe he does have good work ethic himself but the problem I see there is it takes more than willingness it also takes ability. He's not very athletic in any way so there isn't much room for him to grow. Your right he's never gonna be a great runner or anything but a 1B but he isn't even real good at 1B. Kind of a mediocre glove and of course not a lot of range or flexibility over there. Also I still believe his swing is too long but I guess we'll see as his numbers to this point don't bear that out but it's too soon to jump to any conclusions with any degree of certainty. Again willing but just perhaps not able. I think we have seen the best Yonder Alonso has to offer, the more he plays the more apparent it will become that he is a poor mans Carlos Pena at his best.

Guys who strike out at a high rate can't have a strong hit tool because they simply can't hit for a high average on a consistent basis. Chris Heisey is a high strikeout guy. Nothing at all suggests he can make that adjustment.

As for Bautista.... No, I probably wouldn't have told you he had the ability he does now. But, possible revisionist history aside, plenty of scouts would have told you he had the possibility to hit a bunch of HR's. The rest of his game hasn't really changed much. Still walks a good amount and strikes out at a similar rate as ever before.

With Alonso.... Carlos Pena is a career .239 hitter. I will just leave it at that for that comparison.

mth123
11-03-2011, 09:40 PM
True, Stubbs has flaws, but this one seems correctable if Stubbs is a little more aggressive earlier in the count. Maybe this will never be corrected in real life, but at least it's not a hopeless flaw.

It sure sounds easy. Its why I think it will never happen. It shoud be so easy, that a 27 year old that hasn't done it yet seems unlikely to ever figure it out.

cincrazy
11-03-2011, 09:45 PM
Stubbs is what he is. He's fine at center until we find a more decent option. He's an immensely talented player "tools" wise, but he'll never be able to meet his potential because not all guys do.

Mario-Rijo
11-03-2011, 09:51 PM
Guys who strike out at a high rate can't have a strong hit tool because they simply can't hit for a high average on a consistent basis. Chris Heisey is a high strikeout guy. Nothing at all suggests he can make that adjustment.

As for Bautista.... No, I probably wouldn't have told you he had the ability he does now. But, possible revisionist history aside, plenty of scouts would have told you he had the possibility to hit a bunch of HR's. The rest of his game hasn't really changed much. Still walks a good amount and strikes out at a similar rate as ever before.

With Alonso.... Carlos Pena is a career .239 hitter. I will just leave it at that for that comparison.

There is a reason he has a high strikeout rate and it's highly likely it's mostly the same reason he doesn't hit for a higher avg. Now the question is can a particular player fix the flaws which make him what he currently is. In some cases no, god given talent has a limit, I.E. raw bat speed. In other cases yes like mechanics, approach etc. it's possible but then you have to gauge the likelihood the player is motivated enough to make the changes. Chris Heisey has already made previous adjustments but is he content with that, I don't believe he is. Heisey IMO has 2 or 3 things I think he can improve on and he has already stated he plans to work on some things this offseason. His timing, his mechanics and his approach all can be tweaked. And when that happens it completely changes the player he is. I still believe he needs a slight timing adjustment and taking a bit of the loop out of his swing. If he adjusts those 2 things I think his approach/selectivity will eventually come naturally and his approach won't seem so aggressive. His K's will go way down as a result and his average will naturally climb. We don't really know what his bat is capable of at this point but I believe he is at least a .270-.280 hitter minimum with this work.

On Alonso we don't yet know he isn't a low average hitter at the major league level and I'll leave it at that myself.

westofyou
11-03-2011, 10:00 PM
I think his approach/selectivity will eventually come naturally


The man turns 27 next month, his approach is what you see, he already has come to it naturally and it's been one that returns a low OB% since he he hit AAA. He needs to hit .320 to get a smoking OB%, .270 will give you a .320 OB% with him and his walk rate historically.

WVPacman
11-04-2011, 01:13 AM
Unfortunately I won't be doing them any more. I jsut don't have the time and it's usually on the web anyway.



Chip,you suck!;) Thanks for all you done bud we really do apprecate the news that you gave us.:thumbup:

REDREAD
11-04-2011, 01:37 AM
It sure sounds easy. Its why I think it will never happen. It shoud be so easy, that a 27 year old that hasn't done it yet seems unlikely to ever figure it out.

Well, he was a 4 win player in 2010. A 2.5 win player last year (in spite of his shortcomings)

It's really not horrible to have a 2.5 win player in CF. He's going to be cheap next year. If another team is really drooling for Stubbs, you consider trading him, but I see no urgency in trading him away. Sappelt has shown me nothing (but he's probably not as bad as he showed last year). Heisey has a lower ceiling than Stubbs, IMO.

I guess I am just saying that Stubbs has done it.. he did it in 2010.
Mike Cameron had a sophmore slump and bounced back.
No proof Stubbs will bounce back to a 4 win player, but that's why it's a good idea to give guys with tools like Stubbs another chance. 4 win CF that are cheap do not grow on trees. Heck, I'd even say that a cheap 2.5 win CF is hard to find, especially for the Reds.

We still have a hole in LF, barring a trade. Even if we do trade for a LF, still plenty of chances to give Heisey/Sappelt playing time if they deserve it.

mth123
11-04-2011, 03:32 AM
Well, he was a 4 win player in 2010. A 2.5 win player last year (in spite of his shortcomings)

It's really not horrible to have a 2.5 win player in CF. He's going to be cheap next year. If another team is really drooling for Stubbs, you consider trading him, but I see no urgency in trading him away. Sappelt has shown me nothing (but he's probably not as bad as he showed last year). Heisey has a lower ceiling than Stubbs, IMO.

I guess I am just saying that Stubbs has done it.. he did it in 2010.
Mike Cameron had a sophmore slump and bounced back.
No proof Stubbs will bounce back to a 4 win player, but that's why it's a good idea to give guys with tools like Stubbs another chance. 4 win CF that are cheap do not grow on trees. Heck, I'd even say that a cheap 2.5 win CF is hard to find, especially for the Reds.

We still have a hole in LF, barring a trade. Even if we do trade for a LF, still plenty of chances to give Heisey/Sappelt playing time if they deserve it.

That 2.5 Win stat was built on a stronger 1st half as the league was still figuring him out. I just suspect his second half OPS of .647 is more representative of what we can expect going forward. Remember that positional adjustments give Stubbs 1.25 wins simply for playing CF. If he's the second half guy, he's probably little more than a replacement player (although one capable of handling CF with neutral defensive value). The Reds could survive with what Stubbs brings in CF, but I think having more than 1 of Stubbs, Heisey or Sappelt in the line-up on a regular basis is a poor plan. The Reds need pitching so, given the redundancy, I think one of these guys needs to go to try to acquire that pitching. I'm hoping Stubbs has the most trade value but don't think he will for long. He'll be arb eligible after 2012 and if he has a season in 2012 more like his 2011 second half, he'll go from valued commodity to non-tender candidate. It may already be too late. Stubbs value may have already gone to zero, but I'm hoping the scarcity of CF options means Stubbs still has some trade value. He'd be one of the prime pieces I'd shop for pitching. Heisey won't cover the ground that Stubbs does and Sappelt's arm will be a downgrade, but if they can take away more of those dinkers that Stubbs doen't, they may be able to be just as effective on defense.

For all the runs the Reds scored, the middle of the order was still thin in 2011 and they need another bat. LF is probably the only open position to stick said bat. I don't think Heisey or Sappelt provide what this particular line-up needs as the LF solution. They would be fine (probably an upgrade) replacing Stubbs, but inadequate filling that other role that needs to be filled. I personally think Alonso is the only in house candidate for LF who could do it. The Reds may need to deal Alonso to get the pitching they need, but if they do, then they need a LF who can hit in the 5 spot as well and it may still be necessary to deal one of those CF guys to get it. I'd be trying to deal Stubbs for what is needed, giving Sappelt every chance to win the job, and holding Heisey as a strong 4th OF and pretty good insurance policy should Ssppelt fail or any of the OF spots require a replacement due to performance or injury.

If they can't get anything they need for Stubbs, then I'd keep him and pencil him in as the CF, but if he continues to struggle in April and May the way he did in the second half of 2011, I'd make a switch around Memorial Day with Stubbs becoming a reserve OF and one of the others (preferably Sappelt IMO) getting an extended look.

Griffey012
11-04-2011, 08:23 AM
That is where we disagreee. Stubbs game should be power because power is a lot more valuable than speed when it comes to offense. With that said, I have no issue at all with him shortening up his swing if he can to improve his contact rate. But I don't want him to shorten and soften his swing to try and become a soft swinger who simply tries to make contact rather than drive the ball.

As for Heisey/Stubbs and making difficult catches.... I think Stubbs makes catches standing that Heisey has to dive for.

Stubbs has enough pure power, probably as much as anyone on the team, that he will be able to shorten up at times and still hit plenty of HR's. I really think all the Reds as an organization would want is for Stubbs to take an approach more like Votto. Votto takes some major hacks early in the counts, but once he gets behind you see him shorten up, cut down on his swing, and go to battle.

When Stubbs gets behind in the count he is taking the same swings as his is 0-0, 1-0, 2-0, etc. If he shortens in swing when behind 2 strikes, his homerun output probably doesn't change. Or if it does drop a bit it will likely be outweighed by more base hits when down in a hole.

Now if they want him to go all Juan Pierre that is a completely different story.

RFS62
11-04-2011, 08:30 AM
Stubbs has enough pure power, probably as much as anyone on the team, that he will be able to shorten up at times and still hit plenty of HR's. I really think all the Reds as an organization would want is for Stubbs to take an approach more like Votto. Votto takes some major hacks early in the counts, but once he gets behind you see him shorten up, cut down on his swing, and go to battle.

When Stubbs gets behind in the count he is taking the same swings as his is 0-0, 1-0, 2-0, etc. If he shortens in swing when behind 2 strikes, his homerun output probably doesn't change. Or if it does drop a bit it will likely be outweighed by more base hits when down in a hole.




Careful. You're very likely to be told here that making such changes is impossible.

A lot of us have been saying things like this here for years only to be lectured to about the impossibility to change your stroke to do different things.

But you're exactly right, IMO.

Caveman Techie
11-04-2011, 09:11 AM
Heisey has a career OPS of .548 vs LH pitching. I'm not trying to knock the guy but he isn't an everyday player. He is what he is, a good platoon partner for LF.

dougdirt
11-08-2011, 07:47 PM
Some guy called in about 15 minutes ago and told Marty that he (Marty) was the most important person in the franchise, even more important than Joey Votto. Two things.... where do they find these idiots to call in and how didn't Marty tell the guy how wrong he was?

westofyou
11-08-2011, 09:19 PM
Yep a guy who never played the game and announces the play on the field is the most important part of the franchise.

Other really important things in life.

The wrapper on a candy bar, without it we wouldn't know the name.

The numbers on a radio, withou them we wouldn't know stations to avoid.

RFS62
11-08-2011, 10:11 PM
how didn't Marty tell the guy how wrong he was?



He'd have to believe he was wrong to do that.

Vottomatic
11-08-2011, 10:51 PM
Yep a guy who never played the game and announces the play on the field is the most important part of the franchise.

Other really important things in life.

The wrapper on a candy bar, without it we wouldn't know the name.

The numbers on a radio, withou them we wouldn't know stations to avoid.

BREAKING NEWS: Scientists discover that water is wet!

REDREAD
11-09-2011, 03:27 PM
Some guy called in about 15 minutes ago and told Marty that he (Marty) was the most important person in the franchise, even more important than Joey Votto. Two things.... where do they find these idiots to call in and how didn't Marty tell the guy how wrong he was?

Because Marty believes he's the most important person in the Reds' organization.
Remember how he would tell Larkin, Jr, etc.. "I was here before you got here, and I'll be here long after you are gone?"
In all seriousness, Marty believes that he's the most important Reds' employee

CySeymour
11-09-2011, 03:41 PM
And why does Marty and so many callers think that learning to bunt will solve all of Drew Stubbs problems?

REDREAD
11-09-2011, 03:42 PM
That 2.5 Win stat was built on a stronger 1st half as the league was still figuring him out. I just suspect his second half OPS of .647 is more representative of what we can expect going forward. .

Who knows? People were saying that last year about Leake.. He had a flukey good start, and then the league figured him out.. 90% of the board wanted to dump Leake before he "lost all value".

When I look at Stubbs, Heisey, and Sappelt, IMO.. Stubbs has the highest upside of them all. I really don't care about his arb status, he's cheap next year.

I did a screen on WAR of CF (min 400 ABs) on Fangraphs.
13 of them had a WAR of 4.0 or better last year.
Oddly, none had a WAR between 3-4 last year, so the next group was 2.6-2.9, which includes Stubbs. Stubbs ranked 18th in WAR among all CF last year.
Not horrible. He has the potential to get into that elete group of 4+ WAR (already did it once in 2010). Heisey and Sappelt have no chance of being 4+ WAR players next year (in my opinion).

Even if Stubbs repeats a 2.6 Fangraphs WAR next year, he's doing it at near minimum salary, and I doubt any of the CF ranked above him are available to the Reds.

I think if the Reds did actively shop Stubbs, they'd find a lot of interest.
IMO, it's harder to find a CF than a LF, so I just don't have an interest in trading Stubbs for an upgrade in LF.. Maybe for an upgrade in the rotation or SS, but I'm not sure it's worth blowing a hole in CF to do that. I just have no confidence in Heisey/Sappelt.. I can understand your point though if you do.

RANDY IN INDY
11-09-2011, 04:25 PM
I'm no fan of trading Stubbs right now, unless he is in a package that brings back a "truly" top of the rotation starter.

Vottomatic
11-09-2011, 05:27 PM
Trade Stubbs while he still has some value.

Ron Madden
11-10-2011, 04:48 AM
Trade Stubbs while he still has some value.

I agree with Randy. I'd be in no hurry to trade Stubbs right now unless he is part of a package deal that clearly improves the club.