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Benihana
11-03-2011, 03:02 PM
Two moves or less to "fix" the Reds.

Three Rules
Cannot add more than $10MM/year in payroll excluding extensions of current players.
Cannot propose preposterous trades that only make sense for one side.
No more James Shields proposals - too obvious and overplayed.

I'll start:

1. Trade Yonder Alonso and Tucker Barnhart to Seattle for Michael Pineda

Seattle is interested in a masher to play 1B/DH, and Dave Cameron has proposed a large package that includes Pineda and five other players for Votto and Grandal. I say carve out the other five players and make it Pineda for Alonso and Barnhart. M's get their bopper and can use their $ elsewhere, Reds get their TOR starter under cheap control for several years. M's "sell high" on Pineda and replace him eventually with Paxton and/or Walker. Reds convert Alonso into the most affordable TOR on the market.

2. Trade Aroldis Chapman, Yasmani Grandal, and Edinson Volquez to the Marlins for Hanley Ramirez.

Marlins are looking to make a splash in their new stadium, and this deal would allow them to bring in the Cuban Missile along with a Cuban-born catching prospect that would be their best since Charles Johnson. Volquez could have a bounce back year for them and join Sanchez and Johnson in what could be the most volatile rotation in the NL. Meanwhile the Reds get Hanley to split his season between 3B and LF in 2012 (Rolen plays 3B when Hanley in LF and Heisey/Francisco play LF when Hanley at 3B), and takeover full-time at 3B in 2013 once Rolen retires. Subtracting Chapman and Volquez's contracts allow the Reds to obtain Ramirez for <$10MM per.

2b. If you think 2a violates Rule #2 (no preposterous trades), then I'd merely suggest signing Josh Willingham, Grady Sizemore, or Carlos Beltran to a 2 year deal at less than $10MM per year.

Go into 2012 with the following team:

Scenario A.....................Scenario B
2B Phillips......................2B Phillips
LF/3B H.Ramirez..............LF Willingham/Beltran/Sizemore
1B Votto.......................1B Votto
RF Bruce.......................RF Bruce
CF Stubbs.....................CF Stubbs
3B/LF Rolen/Heisey.........C Mesoraco
C Mesoraco...................3B Rolen
SS Cozart.....................SS Cozart

SP Cueto
SP Pineda
SP Leake
SP Bailey
SP Arroyo
(Travis Wood as spot starter)

Looking into the future: With Alonso gone and assuming Votto won't/doesn't re-sign, I'd look into signing Kevin Youkilis to play 1B. Youk's deal is up after next year but the Sox have an option for '13. Either way, it is likely he would want to finish his career here and could be an adequate and (hometown) affordable replacement for Votto if/when he departs via FA (or trade before then).

757690
11-03-2011, 03:23 PM
I wouldn't trade any one of those players for Hanley Ramirez.

He might bounce back, he might not. Considering his attitude issues, I wouldn't invest any recources betting that he will.

I like the first trade (not sure The M's will) and 2b options.

Kc61
11-03-2011, 03:35 PM
I see the main issue as this: how do you get a good starting pitcher without trading Alonso?

Alonso is the Reds only in-house viable answer in LF IMO.
If the Reds trade Alonso for a pitcher, they then have a huge hole in LF.

So the trick for Walt this off-season is to trade for a starting pitcher while keeping Yonder.

This may not be feasible. Yonder may be the best trading piece Walt has (without dealing the team's stars). If Yonder must go in a deal, then LF is again a big problem.

In addition to LF and SP the Reds will have to get a closer. IMO that will be Cordero, or a free agent, or a low-key trade. So I think closer will be covered.

But the SP/LF/Alonso issue is the big one I see.

That's my view of the off-season in a nutshell.

Benihana
11-03-2011, 03:37 PM
I see the main issue as this: how do you get a good starting pitcher without trading Alonso?

Alonso is the Reds only in-house viable answer in LF IMO.
If the Reds trade Alonso for a pitcher, they then have a huge hole in LF.

So the trick for Walt this off-season is to trade for a starting pitcher while keeping Yonder.

This may not be feasible. Yonder may be the best trading piece Walt has (without dealing the team's stars). If Yonder must go in a deal, then LF is again a big problem.

In addition to LF and SP the Reds will have to get a closer. IMO that will be Cordero, or a free agent, or a second piece in a trade. So I think closer will be covered.

But the SP/LF/Alonso issue is the big one I see.

Sorry, I have nothing more specific.

Or trade Alonso for an equally affordable pitcher (like Pineda) so that you can sign a LF in FA. There are three guys that fit the bill and should fall within a semi-reasonable price range in Willingham, Beltran and Sizemore. If the Reds can trade some of their young players including Alonso for a TOR affordable arm (M's and Rays appear to be the only two teams that may be willing to give one up- maybe the Braves also) then they could afford to sign one of the LFers.

Kc61
11-03-2011, 03:46 PM
Or trade Alonso for an equally affordable pitcher (like Pineda) so that you can sign a LF in FA. There are three guys that fit the bill and should fall within a semi-reasonable price range in Willingham, Beltran and Sizemore. If the Reds can trade some of their young players including Alonso for a TOR affordable arm (M's and Rays appear to be the only two teams that may be willing to give one up- maybe the Braves also) then they could afford to sign one of the LFers.

Yes.

I like Willingham but my concern is that he is a righty hitter. The Reds are so overloaded with righty bats. At least with Yonder, it adds a lefty.

Beltran is a Boras guy, can't see it happening unless the demand for him is weak. As a switch hitter he would be ideal, if it's possible.

Sizemore would be a big risk. He hasn't OPSd over .800 since 2008.

If Alonso brings a real good pitcher back, I'd be ok with acquiring one of these three for LF. I'd love it to be Beltran.

PS - if Francisco gets a lot of playing time at third, then the lefty/righty situation wouldn't be as much of a concern. Otherwise, the team is all right handed except for Votto and Bruce. All of Rolen, Cozart, Phillips, Hanigan, Mesoraco, Heisey, Stubbs, Sappelt, Cairo,Janish are right handed.

Benihana
11-03-2011, 04:00 PM
Yes.

I like Willingham but my concern is that he is a righty hitter. The Reds are so overloaded with righty bats. At least with Yonder, it adds a lefty.

Beltran is a Boras guy, can't see it happening unless the demand for him is weak. As a switch hitter he would be ideal, if it's possible.

Sizemore would be a big risk. He hasn't OPSd over .800 since 2008.

If Alonso brings a real good pitcher back, I'd be ok with acquiring one of these three for LF. I'd love it to be Beltran.

PS - if Francisco gets a lot of playing time at third, then the lefty/righty situation wouldn't be as much of a concern. Otherwise, the team is all right handed except for Votto and Bruce. All of Rolen, Cozart, Phillips, Hanigan, Mesoraco, Heisey, Stubbs, Sappelt, Cairo,Janish are right handed.

I agree- my priority would be 1. Beltran 2. Willingham 3. Sizemore

And I also do believe that Francisco will see significant time at 3B, anywhere from 60-90 games likely. Therefore, I am not as concerned with the LH-RH issue.

Benihana
11-03-2011, 04:01 PM
I wouldn't trade any one of those players for Hanley Ramirez.

He might bounce back, he might not. Considering his attitude issues, I wouldn't invest any recources betting that he will.

I like the first trade (not sure The M's will) and 2b options.

You wouldn't trade Edinson Volquez for Hanley Ramirez?

If he bounces back, he's a top 5 player in the game. I'd take that chance everyday of the week.

Another former Marlin slugger has some pretty big attitude issues as well. He's done OK - at least, on the field.

Will M
11-03-2011, 05:31 PM
Stubbs, Volquez & Masset for Wandy. Wandy replaces the Volquez/Willis spot in the rotation.

Get a vet for the pen. I'd like someone who could potentially close if our in house options bomb. However I would not overpay. Get the best arm we can for about $2M. The pen is Chapman, Lecure, Bray, new guy, Ondrusek, Arredondo, & Boxberger.

cinreds21
11-03-2011, 05:36 PM
For the last time, the Marlins are not trading Hanley. It's getting old guys.

Vottomatic
11-03-2011, 06:45 PM
I don't get why we can't trade for Shields? I think it's possible.

Anyway, here goes:

1. Trade Yonder Alonso ($1.4M in '12) and Travis Wood (min. $) to Seattle for Michael Pineda (min $).

Save $1.4M, and gain a TOR guy. Keep Votto at 1B. Seattle gains a good hitter and a starting pitcher with potential and who has had some success at the major league level. Seattle is rebuilding, so they can afford to take the chance.

2. Trade Stubbs (min. $), Volquez (arb. ~ $2M?), Masset (arb. ~ $2M) to Houston for Wandy Rodriguez ($10.5M).

Add approximately $6M in payroll. Tell Houston gains Stubbs, and replaces a starter with a cheaper starter in Volquez. Houston is rebuilding, so they can afford to chance it with Volquez as he hopefully regains form after TJ surgery. Reds argue Masset needs a change in scenery and for the Reds to take on payroll, they need to unload additional payroll. Houston takes Masset to help out Reds overall payroll concerns.

3. Trade Chapman ($4.7M), Grandal ($?), Bailey (arb. ~ $3M?), Neftali Soto (top player at AA), Chris Valaika (min.$) to the Marlins for Mike Stanton (min. $) and Steve Cishek (min. $).

Marlins get the Cuban Missile and can do what they want with him. They also get #1 pick Grandal, major league starter Bailey also a former #1 pick, the Reds top double A player in Soto, and get another player in the mix for 2B/SS/3B in Valaika. Reds get their big bopper at minimum pay in Stanton, and bolster the bullpen with Cishek and his sub 3.00 e.r.a. Reds save roughly $7.1M or more. To pry the young and cheap Stanton away, the Reds have to overpay somewhat or Florida isn't interested.

Lineup:
2B Phillips
SS Cozart
1B Votto
LF Stanton
RF Bruce
CF Heisey
3B Rolen/Francisco
C Hanigan/Mez

Pineda
Cueto
W. Rodriguez
Leake
Arroyo

Boxberger
Cishek
Bray
Arredondo
Lecure
Ondrusek
Horst/Fisher/Other

cinreds21
11-03-2011, 06:57 PM
Stanton isn't going anywhere either dude. I know the Marlins and how they work, and Stanton is't leaving. Morrison, on the other hand, could be traded. But I will guarantee that Hanley, Stanton nor Johnson are going anywhere.

Vottomatic
11-03-2011, 07:23 PM
Stanton isn't going anywhere either dude. I know the Marlins and how they work, and Stanton is't leaving. Morrison, on the other hand, could be traded. But I will guarantee that Hanley, Stanton nor Johnson are going anywhere.

I don't want Hanley or Johnson. Both make a ton of money that the Reds will never pay.

I essentially sent them three #1 picks in Chapman, Grandal, and Bailey, and the Reds best double AA prospect, and a quality multi-purpose player with major league experience in Valaika. Frankly, I thought some people might say I overpaid.

cinreds21
11-03-2011, 07:26 PM
I don't want Hanley or Johnson. Both make a ton of money that the Reds will never pay.

I essentially sent them three #1 picks in Chapman, Grandal, and Bailey, and the Reds best double AA prospect, and a quality multi-purpose player with major league experience in Valaika. Frankly, I thought some people might say I overpaid.

Never said it wasn't a good package. It's a great package, it's just the Marlins aren't looking to trade Santon.

Mario-Rijo
11-03-2011, 07:43 PM
Stanton isn't going anywhere either dude. I know the Marlins and how they work, and Stanton is't leaving. Morrison, on the other hand, could be traded. But I will guarantee that Hanley, Stanton nor Johnson are going anywhere.

Virtually anyone is available in this game for the right price. It's debatable whether or not we have the means or are willing to pay the price. But make no mistake no one on that team is completely untouchable but I'm guessing Stanton comes close. And furthermore if Hanley is untouchable they have lost their minds as his star has dimmed considerably.

Vottomatic
11-03-2011, 08:05 PM
Stanton has only 2 full years in the majors, is 22 years old, and his numbers are Jay Bruce-esque.

I think he's available for the right price. What that right price is, I have no idea.

mth123
11-03-2011, 08:23 PM
Stubbs, Volquez & Masset for Wandy. Wandy replaces the Volquez/Willis spot in the rotation.

Get a vet for the pen. I'd like someone who could potentially close if our in house options bomb. However I would not overpay. Get the best arm we can for about $2M. The pen is Chapman, Lecure, Bray, new guy, Ondrusek, Arredondo, & Boxberger.

This is nearly my plan. I'd try to go Stubbs/Volquez/Janish while tossing in somebody like Sulbaran if the team could get Masset to sign for $2 Million or less. If Masset goes to arb, then your plan is exactly my plan.

bucksfan2
11-04-2011, 09:50 AM
Alonso and Volquez to Tampa for James Shields. I keep seeing the rumor around (SI had it this week). It make sense for both, the Reds get pitching, Rays get hitting and have a pitcher ready to step into Shields role.

Sign Carols Beltran 3 years/$35M. Pay a little more in the future for Beltran and put him in LF. FWIW he recently fired Scott Boras so IMO it makes in a little more singable for the Reds.

I try to work out a deal with Cordero, if he doesn't sign I go close by committee and look for a closer in June and July.

Benihana
11-04-2011, 10:06 AM
Alonso and Volquez to Tampa for James Shields. I keep seeing the rumor around (SI had it this week). It make sense for both, the Reds get pitching, Rays get hitting and have a pitcher ready to step into Shields role.

Sign Carols Beltran 3 years/$35M. Pay a little more in the future for Beltran and put him in LF. FWIW he recently fired Scott Boras so IMO it makes in a little more singable for the Reds.

I try to work out a deal with Cordero, if he doesn't sign I go close by committee and look for a closer in June and July.

And apparently the Rays are "dead set against trading James Shields."

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/11/al-east-notes-shields-burnett-ortiz-blue-jays.html

Could be posturing but it could be real. We've beaten this topic TO DEATH, that's why I was hoping we could see some new creative ideas.

Hoosier Red
11-04-2011, 10:10 AM
Yes.

I like Willingham but my concern is that he is a righty hitter. The Reds are so overloaded with righty bats. At least with Yonder, it adds a lefty.

Beltran is a Boras guy, can't see it happening unless the demand for him is weak. As a switch hitter he would be ideal, if it's possible.

Sizemore would be a big risk. He hasn't OPSd over .800 since 2008.

If Alonso brings a real good pitcher back, I'd be ok with acquiring one of these three for LF. I'd love it to be Beltran.

PS - if Francisco gets a lot of playing time at third, then the lefty/righty situation wouldn't be as much of a concern. Otherwise, the team is all right handed except for Votto and Bruce. All of Rolen, Cozart, Phillips, Hanigan, Mesoraco, Heisey, Stubbs, Sappelt, Cairo,Janish are right handed.

I've brought this up before, and I know it's been answered, but forgive me for my senility in old age. But it doesn't seem like being too RH is as much of a problem as being too LH. There aren't ROOGY pitchers to the extent that there are LOOGY pitchers, and the split between Righty and lefties seems to be much smaller.

This might be just perception but it seems like when there's a large split on RH Batter vs. LH Pitcher, the split is that the guy crushes lefties.(Think Brandon Phillips.) But when the split is LH Pitcher vs LH Batter, it's because the LH pitcher holds lefty batters to such a miniscule average. (Think of every LOOGY since Tony Larussa invented them. :)

But the other side of those splits versus the Right Handed Pitcher seems to be more normal if that makes sense.

RedsManRick
11-04-2011, 10:32 AM
Yes.

I like Willingham but my concern is that he is a righty hitter. The Reds are so overloaded with righty bats. At least with Yonder, it adds a lefty.

Beltran is a Boras guy, can't see it happening unless the demand for him is weak. As a switch hitter he would be ideal, if it's possible.


http://www.kffl.com/gnews.php?id=750875-mlb-carlos-beltran-changes-agents#ixzz1ckNYph9o


Free-agent OF Carlos Beltran (Giants) has dumped Scott Boras as his agent and is now represented by Dan Lozano, according to baseball sources.

Kc61
11-04-2011, 10:35 AM
I've brought this up before, and I know it's been answered, but forgive me for my senility in old age. But it doesn't seem like being too RH is as much of a problem as being too LH. There aren't ROOGY pitchers to the extent that there are LOOGY pitchers, and the split between Righty and lefties seems to be much smaller.

This might be just perception but it seems like when there's a large split on RH Batter vs. LH Pitcher, the split is that the guy crushes lefties.(Think Brandon Phillips.) But when the split is LH Pitcher vs LH Batter, it's because the LH pitcher holds lefty batters to such a miniscule average. (Think of every LOOGY since Tony Larussa invented them. :)

But the other side of those splits versus the Right Handed Pitcher seems to be more normal if that makes sense.

I take your point, except the reliance on too many RH hitters has hurt the Reds.

Reds OPS v. lefties in 2011 was .794, best in the NL.

Reds OPS v. righties in 2011 was .717, 8th in NL. Huge drop off.

I think your point is that you'd rather be overloaded with righty bats than lefty bats. I agree. But the best result it to have lefty/righty balance, not be overloaded either way.

Keep in mind that the Reds had all of two regulars who hit left handed last year, Votto and Bruce. (And Votto hits more like a righty hitter anyway, he destroys lefties even more than he destroys righties. But no complaint about Joey, I'd take 10 of him any day.)

Reds offense would be much more successful if they restored some lefty righty balance. An occasional good switch hitter would be nice. Reds haven't had one in years.

Benihana
11-04-2011, 04:04 PM
More food for thought:

Both Dave Cameron and Jon Paul Morosi have suggested that the Giants could trade Tim Lincecum to free up money for a Reyes/Fielder/Pujols signing.

Could Redszoners finally get their wish (and their man) from the 2005 draft?

What would the Giants want? Could the Reds afford it?

Unfortunately they seem to have good young players at 1B (Belt) and C (Posey), so right off the bat there are challenges. Perhaps the Giants' brass may feel that they could justify Stubbs + Bailey + 1-2 top prospects + a marquee FA like Pujols/Fielder/Reyes in lieu of Lincecum? Interestingly, he's signed through 2013 so he'd fit perfectly with our "window" to compete.

Benihana
11-04-2011, 04:05 PM
oops, double post

puca
11-04-2011, 04:23 PM
I take your point, except the reliance on too many RH hitters has hurt the Reds.

Reds OPS v. lefties in 2011 was .794, best in the NL.

Reds OPS v. righties in 2011 was .717, 8th in NL. Huge drop off.

I think your point is that you'd rather be overloaded with righty bats than lefty bats. I agree. But the best result it to have lefty/righty balance, not be overloaded either way.

Keep in mind that the Reds had all of two regulars who hit left handed last year, Votto and Bruce. (And Votto hits more like a righty hitter anyway, he destroys lefties even more than he destroys righties. But no complaint about Joey, I'd take 10 of him any day.)

Reds offense would be much more successful if they restored some lefty righty balance. An occasional good switch hitter would be nice. Reds haven't had one in years.

The Reds 2 top bats are lefty (maybe 3 if you count Alonso). If they are adding an impact middle of the order bat it probaby should be a righty (or switchy). Hopefully one that can fit between Votto and Bruce.

I've said this before, the issue with the lack of success against RHP isn't due to a lack of lefty bats, it is due to a lack of a righty bat that can hit RH pitchers.

mth123
11-04-2011, 09:01 PM
I've brought this up before, and I know it's been answered, but forgive me for my senility in old age. But it doesn't seem like being too RH is as much of a problem as being too LH. There aren't ROOGY pitchers to the extent that there are LOOGY pitchers, and the split between Righty and lefties seems to be much smaller.

This might be just perception but it seems like when there's a large split on RH Batter vs. LH Pitcher, the split is that the guy crushes lefties.(Think Brandon Phillips.) But when the split is LH Pitcher vs LH Batter, it's because the LH pitcher holds lefty batters to such a miniscule average. (Think of every LOOGY since Tony Larussa invented them. :)

But the other side of those splits versus the Right Handed Pitcher seems to be more normal if that makes sense.

OPS against RHP is lousey and most pitchers are RH. I'd like to see them add guys who hit against the guys pitching most of the time. Can't have too many lefties IMO.

Kc61
11-04-2011, 11:42 PM
The Reds 2 top bats are lefty (maybe 3 if you count Alonso). If they are adding an impact middle of the order bat it probaby should be a righty (or switchy). Hopefully one that can fit between Votto and Bruce.

I've said this before, the issue with the lack of success against RHP isn't due to a lack of lefty bats, it is due to a lack of a righty bat that can hit RH pitchers.

The whole discussion assumed Alonso would be traded. If Alonso is in left Reds aren't trading for a LF bat.

If Alonso starts and Reds have three LHH playing most days, that's sufficient.

But if Alonso goes, the new guy should be lefty. Two lefties in the lineup is insufficient.

The lack of hitting versus RHP is a likely outcome when a team has so few lefty bats as the Reds had last year.

The Operator
11-05-2011, 12:39 AM
And furthermore if Hanley is untouchable they have lost their minds as his star has dimmed considerably.Which means they'd be selling at an all-time low. Their best bet is probably just to hang onto him and hope he rebounds.

That being said, I want no part of him being a Red. He's a cancer, plain and simple. The stunt he pulled with Fredi Gonzalez was ridiculous, and that's just the tip of the iceberg with him. He can stay a Marlin.

puca
11-05-2011, 08:25 AM
The whole discussion assumed Alonso would be traded. If Alonso is in left Reds aren't trading for a LF bat.

If Alonso starts and Reds have three LHH playing most days, that's sufficient.

But if Alonso goes, the new guy should be lefty. Two lefties in the lineup is insufficient.

The lack of hitting versus RHP is a likely outcome when a team has so few lefty bats as the Reds had last year.

The Brewers seemed to manage just fine.

In 2010 the OPS split was .772 vs RHP / 779 vs LHP. Do you think the drop off last year had more due to Laynce Nix or Scott Rolen?

Add another solid middle of the order bat - one that can hit RHPs as well as LHPs- I don't care which side of the plate he bats from.

mth123
11-05-2011, 10:04 AM
The Brewers seemed to manage just fine.

In 2010 the OPS split was .772 vs RHP / 779 vs LHP. Do you think the drop off last year had more due to Laynce Nix or Scott Rolen?

Add another solid middle of the order bat - one that can hit RHPs as well as LHPs- I don't care which side of the plate he bats from.

I agree with the overall point, but the roster was and still is filled with lefty killers. Gomes is gone, but Stubbs, Phillips, Hanigan, Frazier etc all fit the same mold. Fact is, its pretty hard to find a guy like Votto who hits against everyone. If you have to pick a side to be successful against, why not go with the guy who is successful against 70% of the starting pitchers out there instead of loading up with more guys who struggle against those same guys?

IMO, Alonso is the most likely guy to add to the line-up that can be successful against both RH and LH and if he does end up being splitty, at least he'll be an asset most of the time.

The real problem continues to be that the Reds need a Solid starter with a track record more than they need anything. To get one will cost most of the payflex which probably precludes them from bringing in an expensive bat (and should make fooling with a reliever out of the question IMO). Alonso would be an affordable solution for the middle of the order. Of course adding a pitcher may cost Alonso too which might be a problem if the Reds have to spend too much of the payroll on the arm.

puca
11-05-2011, 10:45 AM
The Brewers seemed to manage just fine.

In 2010 the OPS split was .772 vs RHP / 779 vs LHP. Do you think the drop off last year had more due to Laynce Nix or Scott Rolen?

Add another solid middle of the order bat - one that can hit RHPs as well as LHPs- I don't care which side of the plate he bats from.

On second look maybe it was Laynce Nix. I checked Rolen's career RHP/LHP splits and they are downright Stubbesque. I didn't bother looking at his 2010 splits - but I doubt they were balanced.

Kc61
11-05-2011, 05:45 PM
The Brewers seemed to manage just fine.

In 2010 the OPS split was .772 vs RHP / 779 vs LHP. Do you think the drop off last year had more due to Laynce Nix or Scott Rolen?

Add another solid middle of the order bat - one that can hit RHPs as well as LHPs- I don't care which side of the plate he bats from.

The surest way to improve hitting vs. righty pitching is to add lefty hitting.

Will M
11-06-2011, 08:28 PM
I have been thinking about what the Reds can do in 2012 with their payroll restrictions. Last years team had a pythag of 83 wins. With our rose colored glasses lets look at adding to that:
+2 wins for a rebound from Bronson
+2 wins for the player added to the team who makes some cash. lets say its Wandy for spare parts.
+2 wins for Alonso in left rather than what we had last year
+1 win for a healthier Rolen
+2 wins for Cozart
+0 wins for Mes over Ramon (who has a nice 2011)

Note: lets say Alonso is traded for Pineda (or some other cheap young pitcher) and the Reds sign a bat (Cuddyer, Willingham, etc )for left to replace him. I still would count the pitcher at +2 wins over Volquez/Willis and the bat as +2 wins over Gomes/Lewis/etc.

While anyone could bust out I don't see anyone else on the team in 2012 that can be pencilled in for improvement over 2011. Some guys might have a good year & some guys might have a bad year. I am trying to think of who might, on paper, be better than what we had last year.

So my back of the envelope shows 83+9=92 wins in an optimistic scenario. An ineffective Arroyo, injured Rolen & rookie struggles by Cozart/Alonso could put us at 87 wins. This would seem a more reasonable estimate based on last years pythag, payroll restrictions limiting who we can acquire & which guys are coming up from the minors. I'd really like Walt to build a team that has a better shot at the playoffs next year but I am having trouble seeing how he can build one without a great trade or two.

mth123
11-06-2011, 08:40 PM
I have been thinking about what the Reds can do in 2012 with their payroll restrictions. Last years team had a pythag of 83 wins. With our rose colored glasses lets look at adding to that:
+2 wins for a rebound from Bronson
+2 wins for the player added to the team who makes some cash. lets say its Wandy for spare parts.
+2 wins for Alonso in left rather than what we had last year
+1 win for a healthier Rolen
+2 wins for Cozart
+0 wins for Mes over Ramon (who has a nice 2011)

Note: lets say Alonso is traded for Pineda (or some other cheap young pitcher) and the Reds sign a bat (Cuddyer, Willingham, etc )for left to replace him. I still would count the pitcher at +2 wins over Volquez/Willis and the bat as +2 wins over Gomes/Lewis/etc.

While anyone could bust out I don't see anyone else on the team in 2012 that can be pencilled in for improvement over 2011. Some guys might have a good year & some guys might have a bad year. I am trying to think of who might, on paper, be better than what we had last year.

So my back of the envelope shows 83+9=92 wins in an optimistic scenario. An ineffective Arroyo, injured Rolen & rookie struggles by Cozart/Alonso could put us at 87 wins. This would seem a more reasonable estimate based on last years pythag, payroll restrictions limiting who we can acquire & which guys are coming up from the minors. I'd really like Walt to build a team that has a better shot at the playoffs next year but I am having trouble seeing how he can build one without a great trade or two.

I'm hoping for some rose colors along those lines as well and agree with most of the math, but I'd say only 1 win for Bronson and maybe 3 total for Alonso and Cozart. We probably need to subtract 2 or 3 wins due to regressions from Phillips and Cueto and we're back to where we were last spring with an 85 to 87 win team if most things go right and to hope for a break-out from Bruce to add 3 or 4 more wins from there, but they have to get the pitcher first...

mdccclxix
11-07-2011, 05:36 PM
For the last time, the Marlins are not trading Hanley. It's getting old guys.

cinreds21, what do you make of the Marlins contacting Reyes? Hanley to 3b?


3:47pm: The Marlins contacted Reyes one minute into the free agent signing period, according to Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald. A group of Marlins executives went to New York this week and it appears they were going to visit Reyes’ agent, Peter Greenberg.

2:38pm: Free agent shortstop Jose Reyes is scheduled to meet with the Marlins, according to WFAN's Mike Francesa (Twitter link). The tweet says that Reyes has received an offer, but my guess is nothing has been formally presented at this early stage.

The Marlins' interest in Reyes is real, so what would become of Hanley Ramirez if they sign Reyes? Marlins president David Samson told MLB.com's Joe Frisaro there have been no conversations about moving Ramirez to another position, but I'd be surprised if the Fish haven't discussed the possibility internally. A trade could be another option.

Major free agents typically sign in December or January, so much remains to be seen about the composition of Reyes' market.