View Full Version : Cueto analysis from Fangraphs

11-04-2011, 12:48 AM
The Good: Cuetoís groundball rate rose 12 percent from 2010 to 2011 and heís getting the home run issues he had in previous seasons under control.

The Bad: He outpitched both his FIP and xFIP by a pretty large amount, and his BABIP was about 40 points under his career average, which makes me think that his success isnít sustainable over a full season.

Cuetoís MO as a pitcher changed this year. When he first came into the league, he struck out plenty, but allowed hitters to reach in far too great of numbers, and had a tendency to give up untimely home runs. Last season, he recorded most of his outs via the groundball, struck out fewer hitters, but also allowed far fewer to reach base and didnít consistently get victimized by two walks and a longball. Expecting Cueto to keep his low WHIP and ERA, as well as to get back the strike rate he had in the past is too much to ask. I think the strikeouts and the walks go hand-in-hand as he works around the edges of the strike zone.

This yearís changes were so out of character for Cueto, itís hard to say whether itís a wholesale change in his philosophy, or if he simply responded to the positive feedback he was getting as a contact-focused pitcher. As I mentioned above, his peripherals donít indicate that heíll be this effective next year, but that doesnít mean heíll abandon it entirely.

11-04-2011, 09:44 AM
As a fan, it's sad to read analysis like that, but I think it underscores the fact that the Reds need to focus on the rotation this off season. Cueto was undeniably the Reds ace last season, but, based on this analysis, even he's a question mark heading into this year. It's not a good sign when you can't count on your number one starter to actually perform like a number one starter.

11-04-2011, 11:43 AM
Not to mention he started the year hurt and ended the year hurt. A team can never have enough starting pitching.