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I(heart)Freel
11-06-2011, 09:36 AM
The article intimates that the Braves could have Jurrjens in play.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/Atlanta-Braves-may-trade-Jair-Jurrjens-Martin-Prado-need-roster-upgrade-110511

What would it take?

It also says he's in the last two years of arb. Frankly, I don't think that's a bad window for the Reds. Call it Votto's Last Stand years. At about $5 mill this year, I think the Reds could afford him. Just a matter of the talent going back the other way. Would Stubbs start the conversation?

Vottomatic
11-06-2011, 09:53 AM
Jurrjens, who turns 26 on Jan. 29, was a candidate to start the All-Star Game last season, but he made only seven starts after the break because of a right knee injury. He also missed time with an oblique problem at the start of last season and nearly two months with a strained left hamstring in 2010 and, lest anyone forget, he had a shoulder scare in the spring of 10 and other shoulder issues in 06 and 07.

Good/great pitcher when healthy. But the information in that quoted paragraph scares the crud out of me. Injuries. Boras client. Arbitration. Yuk.

Who do the Braves think will give them much for him, with that situation hanging over the deal?

I'll trade them Stubbs straight up. That's about it.

mth123
11-06-2011, 10:15 AM
Atlanta is a tough match. They have Freeman, so probably little interest in Alonso. Christain Bethancourt probably means not much interest in Grandal. Now that they have Michael Bourne, I can't think of any reason why they would want Drew Stubbs. They have tons of young pitching on the verge, so I can't see why they would want any of the Reds question marks.

I'd love to get Jurrjens but I don't see the Reds having what they'd want without massively overpaying with Bruce or Cueto.

Jurrjens for Carlos Quentin might be a good match. Then the Reds could deal Stubbs+ for somebody like John Danks.

757690
11-06-2011, 10:28 AM
I'd stay far away for Jurrjens. He lost significant velocity last season, and has turned into a junkballer of sorts. There's a reason why the Braves want to trade him.

Reds/Flyers Fan
11-06-2011, 10:36 AM
The Braves aren't in the habit of trading away good, long-term starters. If they're offering Jurrjens, there's probably a sinister reason behind it.

Stay away.

RedsManRick
11-06-2011, 11:09 AM
Fools gold, I'll pass. He doesn't have great control. He doesn't miss bats. His good ERAs have been on the back of lucky HR rates or a lucky BABIP. If we needed another 3/4 type, I guess I'd be interested -- but we don't.

mth123
11-06-2011, 11:20 AM
Fools gold, I'll pass. He doesn't have great control. He doesn't miss bats. His good ERAs have been on the back of lucky HR rates or a lucky BABIP. If we needed another 3/4 type, I guess I'd be interested -- but we don't.

I'll pass because of what the Reds would have to pay to get him, but I don't really think the Reds have 3 better pitchers than Jurrjens even if you normalize the BABIP and HRs.

Matt700wlw
11-06-2011, 11:21 AM
http://ep.yimg.com/ca/I/yhst-29523360387793_2183_933410407

RedsManRick
11-06-2011, 11:23 AM
I'll pass because of what the Reds would have to pay to get him, but I don't really think the Reds have 3 better pitchers than Jurrjens even if you normalize the BABIP and HRs.

Agreed. He'd be in our rotation if we had him. But he's a relatively small upgrade and not worth the price.

mth123
11-06-2011, 02:53 PM
A sobering thought for those who think Jurrjens is basically a 3rd or 4th starter. Johnny Cueto was even luckier, not much better than a standard error where xFIP is concerned. Both missed significant time, but Cueto's lost time was due to an actual arm injury. Cueto will probably make more money in 2012. Jurrjens could very easily be the Reds best starter if he was here in 2012.

Not saying that the Reds should go ater Jurrjens at all cost, but it points to the urgency of improving the rotation. The one spot we all think we can count on may be in for a fairly significant loss in production. If the rotation was bad with Cueto having a luck driven ERA of 2.31, what will it be like if he has an ERA near 4.00 as his component stats suggest?




Name ERA IP BABIP HR/FB HR/9 BB/9 K/9 K/9 drop FIP xFIP
Cueto 2.31 156 0.249 5.80% 0.46 2.71 6.00 (0.69) 3.45 3.90
Jair 2.96 152 0.269 8.00% 0.83 2.61 5.33 (1.32) 3.99 4.23

757690
11-06-2011, 03:18 PM
A sobering thought for those who think Jurrjens is basically a 3rd or 4th starter. Johnny Cueto was even luckier, not much better than a standard error where xFIP is concerned. Both missed significant time, but Cueto's lost time was due to an actual arm injury. Cueto will probably make more money in 2012. Jurrjens could very easily be the Reds best starter if he was here in 2012.

Not saying that the Reds should go ater Jurrjens at all cost, but it points to the urgency of improving the rotation. The one spot we all think we can count on may be in for a fairly significant loss in production. If the rotation was bad with Cueto having a luck driven ERA of 2.31, what will it be like if he has an ERA near 4.00 as his component stats suggest?




Name ERA IP BABIP HR/FB HR/9 BB/9 K/9 K/9 drop FIP xFIP
Cueto 2.31 156 0.249 5.80% 0.46 2.71 6.00 (0.69) 3.45 3.90
Jair 2.96 152 0.269 8.00% 0.83 2.61 5.33 (1.32) 3.99 4.23



Good stuff.

But I don't mind Jurrjans' FIP as much as his declining velocity. He averaged below 90 MPH last hear on his fastball, down 2 MPH from his previous years. That scares me.

RedsManRick
11-06-2011, 09:34 PM
Just to be clear, I've been very forward about Cueto's fabulous luck this year. That is a big part of the reason I've been so adamant about adding a legit top of the rotation guy and not another 3/4.

mth123
11-07-2011, 03:41 AM
Just to be clear, I've been very forward about Cueto's fabulous luck this year. That is a big part of the reason I've been so adamant about adding a legit top of the rotation guy and not another 3/4.

Ideally, I'd agree, but its not like the Reds have enough legit number 3s or 4s to fill out a rotation either. Cueto, Leake, maybe Arroyo if he can bounce back?, maybe Bailey if he can stay healthy??, Volquez?????, Wood ???????, Chapman ???????????????????????????? and after those guys they have absolutely nothing worthy of a major league start. I guess Lecure would be next in line. There really aren't any number ones available. If they wanted to break the bank they could get a weak number 2 in CJ Wilson. If they use all the payflex they might be able to get Mark Buerhle. It doesn't sound like James Shields is available. Wandy Rodriguez, Jair Jurrjens, Gio Gonzalez, etc are the number 3 types who might be available. If they could get any of those guys for something along the lines of Stubbs/Volquez/Janish I'd be all for it. Adding a number 3 who can go deep in games would still be a huge upgrade and would probably do more good for the bullpen than spending a bunch of money on a relief pitcher. I just think Jurrjens will cost more than a Stubbs centered deal and I'm not sure I'd be willing to part with Alonso or anything more than that.

Benihana
11-07-2011, 11:36 AM
I don't really want Buerhle or Wandy, mainly because of the money (and talent in Wandy's case) required.

Guys I'd like to see pursued in the order of what I'd be willing to give up in a trade:

Pineda
Shields
Gonzalez
Danks
Jurrjens

mdccclxix
11-08-2011, 09:07 AM
Braves are said to want a Greinke type return for Jurrjens, per MLBTR.

mdccclxix
11-08-2011, 09:23 AM
Something like:

Heisey - Cain
Corcino - Odorizzi
Didi G. - Escobar
Lotzkar - Jeffress

Fuzzy there. Jurrjens never has had a 9 win season, so his value should be much less than Grienke, although, he's cheaper, yet again, he's injured a bit.

traderumor
11-08-2011, 09:24 AM
General comment: there is a tendency for fans to undervalue their own assets, and overvalue another team's assets. What we consider "question marks" might be very interesting to another organization and more valuable than we consider them.

Example: John Danks is a rotation target despite up and down performance, but our unnamed "question marks" are not trade fodder.

Conclusion: Most of MLB roster construction is projecting answers to question marks, there are very few sure things, and deals involve risks. Deals include another orgs. "question marks" all the time and can be a part of a good baseball deal for both sides. Fans tend to dismiss their own assets, focusing on their warts and dismissing their value.

Benihana
11-08-2011, 09:58 AM
Braves are said to want a Greinke type return for Jurrjens, per MLBTR.

"Well CROSS HIM OFF then!"

Vottomatic
11-08-2011, 04:08 PM
Braves are said to want a Greinke type return for Jurrjens, per MLBTR.

Any team offering that much would rank behind the Jayson Werth signing, in the top 10 of worst deals/signings.

thatcoolguy_22
11-09-2011, 12:06 AM
Saw this on the Mike Newman chat on fangraphs:


Comment From ChrisChris:
What is a legitimate type of prospect haul the Braves can expect for Jurrjens? (unlike the Greinke-like return they want)

Mike Newman: I'd say a B-level guy who projects as an average regular along with a C+ bench type. The peripherals and velocity drop are going to scare at least some of what his market would have been away.


How do the Reds match up to this description?

Benihana
11-09-2011, 03:10 PM
Saw this on the Mike Newman chat on fangraphs:




How do the Reds match up to this description?

Heisey (or Stubbs) and Frazier

Vottomatic
11-09-2011, 06:50 PM
Heisey (or Stubbs) and Frazier

I'd trade Stubbs straight up for him. Stubbs has peaked.

wlf WV
11-09-2011, 06:58 PM
Saw this on the Mike Newman chat on fangraphs:




How do the Reds match up to this description?
That may be his take.
If that was all it took, Jurrjens wouldn't be with Atlanta now.

15fan
11-09-2011, 07:38 PM
I'd trade Stubbs straight up for him. Stubbs has peaked.

As has Jair.

It's too bad we can't offer Edgar Renteria to the Braves.

Benihana
11-10-2011, 04:06 PM
I'd try to expand it to a blockbuster, as there have been rumors that the Braves are willing to listen on Heyward as well:

Stubbs, Sappelt, Bailey, Volquez, and the Dragon of their choice (Hamilton/Torreyes/Y.Rod/Duran/Corcino) for Jurrjens and Heyward.
Then trade Alonso and/or Grandal for a pitcher like Shields or Pineda.
Who backs down from either of these deals?

2B Phillips
SS Cozart
1B Votto
LF Heyward
RF Bruce
CF Heisey
3B Rolen/Francisco
C Mesoraco

SP Pineda/Shields
SP Cueto
SP Jurrjens
SP Leake
SP Arroyo/Chapman

Tell me that team can't compete with Milwaukee or St. Louis.

Vottomatic
11-10-2011, 07:30 PM
I'd try to expand it to a blockbuster, as there have been rumors that the Braves are willing to listen on Heyward as well:

Stubbs, Sappelt, Bailey, Volquez, and the Dragon of their choice (Hamilton/Torreyes/Y.Rod/Duran/Corcino) for Jurrjens and Heyward.
Then trade Alonso and/or Grandal for a pitcher like Shields or Pineda.
Who backs down from either of these deals?

2B Phillips
SS Cozart
1B Votto
LF Heyward
RF Bruce
CF Heisey
3B Rolen/Francisco
C Mesoraco

SP Pineda/Shields
SP Cueto
SP Jurrjens
SP Leake
SP Arroyo/Chapman

Tell me that team can't compete with Milwaukee or St. Louis.

Geez. I'd rather have Stubbs or Heisey over Heyward.

I think that's too much to trade for Jurrjens.

dougdirt
11-10-2011, 07:32 PM
Geez. I'd rather have Stubbs or Heisey over Heyward.


Is this a serious post or am I missing sarcasm here?

Vottomatic
11-10-2011, 07:40 PM
Is this a serious post or am I missing sarcasm here?

.227 batting average
14 HR's
42 rbi's
.319 OBP
.708 OPS
9 stolen bases

Dude can't hit lefties .192, much less righties .240. Stubbs numbers are about the same, but he stole 40 bases.

And Heisey hit more HR's in about 100 less at-bats.

Oh, but I know what it is. Heyward is 22 years old. So he has that thing people drool over............POTENTIAL.

dougdirt
11-10-2011, 07:53 PM
.227 batting average
14 HR's
42 rbi's
.319 OBP
.708 OPS
9 stolen bases

Dude can't hit lefties .192, much less righties .240. Stubbs numbers are about the same, but he stole 40 bases.

And Heisey hit more HR's in about 100 less at-bats.

Oh, but I know what it is. Heyward is 22 years old. So he has that thing people drool over............POTENTIAL.

It isn't just about that stuff. Heyward is under control longer than each guy as well. Potential is there for sure. He has more power potential than either guy. Defensively, he can be just as good as Heisey is. If I were a betting man, I would take Heyward's 2012 season over either of the other two without thinking twice about it. Maybe I am a sucker.... but something tells me that .260 BABIP is going to rebound and he is going to post strong numbers.

TheNext44
11-10-2011, 09:33 PM
It isn't just about that stuff. Heyward is under control longer than each guy as well. Potential is there for sure. He has more power potential than either guy. Defensively, he can be just as good as Heisey is. If I were a betting man, I would take Heyward's 2012 season over either of the other two without thinking twice about it. Maybe I am a sucker.... but something tells me that .260 BABIP is going to rebound and he is going to post strong numbers.

I would trade Stubbs and Heisey for Hayward in a heartbeat, and hope the Braves don't sober up before the league approves it.

RedlegJake
11-12-2011, 04:56 PM
I would trade Stubbs and Heisey for Hayward in a heartbeat, and hope the Braves don't sober up before the league approves it.

Me, too. I'd trade for both for Heyward and never look back.

RedsManRick
11-12-2011, 06:39 PM
.227 batting average
14 HR's
42 rbi's
.319 OBP
.708 OPS
9 stolen bases

Dude can't hit lefties .192, much less righties .240. Stubbs numbers are about the same, but he stole 40 bases.

And Heisey hit more HR's in about 100 less at-bats.

Oh, but I know what it is. Heyward is 22 years old. So he has that thing people drool over............POTENTIAL.

In 2010, he was a 5 WAR player. Yeah, he had a rough year last at age 21, including a low BABIP. But he's already been an all-star caliber player. He's a lot more than just potential. I'd take Sappelt in CF and Heyward in LF over Stubbs in CF and Heisey in LF without thinking twice.

Vottomatic
11-13-2011, 09:59 AM
The league has figured him out and he doesn't know how to adjust. Same problem Bruce has.

dougdirt
11-13-2011, 12:06 PM
The league has figured him out and he doesn't know how to adjust. Same problem Bruce has.

If the league figured him out, why is his strikeout rate the same? Why is his walk rate still well above average? Why was his power similar?

If the league had figured him out, wouldn't those rates have been quite different?

The difference was a better walk rate and a higher BABIP from 2010 to 2011.

PuffyPig
11-13-2011, 12:37 PM
The league has figured him out and he doesn't know how to adjust. Same problem Bruce has.

(sigh)

Vottomatic
11-13-2011, 04:31 PM
If the league figured him out, why is his strikeout rate the same? Why is his walk rate still well above average? Why was his power similar?

If the league had figured him out, wouldn't those rates have been quite different?

The difference was a better walk rate and a higher BABIP from 2010 to 2011.

......and why is his batting average significantly lower? :laugh:

cinreds21
11-15-2011, 06:52 PM
SI_JonHeyman Jon Heyman
#reds 1 of many to inquire on top starter jair jurrjens. Clear sense is it would take a ton.=

dougdirt
11-15-2011, 06:59 PM
......and why is his batting average significantly lower? :laugh:

Because his BABIP was significantly lower?

If we are using batting average as a function of being figured out, especially two seasons into the career of a guy under the age of 22, we should probably just stop having this conversation because we are obviously on two entirely different wavelengths when it comes to the evaluation of baseball players.

Vottomatic
11-15-2011, 09:14 PM
Because his BABIP was significantly lower?

If we are using batting average as a function of being figured out, especially two seasons into the career of a guy under the age of 22, we should probably just stop having this conversation because we are obviously on two entirely different wavelengths when it comes to the evaluation of baseball players.

My gut has usually been right about players. I see things that stats don't point out. ;) :p

dougdirt
11-15-2011, 10:37 PM
My gut has usually been right about players. I see things that stats don't point out. ;) :p

Well I guess that settles that, doesn't it?

Your gut > Math and baseball history.

Vottomatic
11-16-2011, 06:31 PM
Well I guess that settles that, doesn't it?

Your gut > Math and baseball history.

I get tired of all the Sabermetrics crap.

There are plenty of players who have come up that everyone went gaga over, who came back down to earth. It's far from the perfect science that all you Saber-lovestruck fans claim it is.

Yes. We will just have to disagree.

dougdirt
11-16-2011, 06:34 PM
I get tired of all the Sabermetrics crap.

There are plenty of players who have come up that everyone went gaga over, who came back down to earth. It's far from the perfect science that all you Saber-lovestruck fans claim it is.

Yes. We will just have to disagree.

I get tired of the "well I just feel that way" crap too. It is entirely baseless.

And no one will ever tell you "sabermetrics" is perfect and I don't even believe what I implied was anything close to what I would consider sabermetrics.

Of course there is a chance that Heyward busts. But there is a better chance that he doesn't because the key indicators to what a player produces didn't really change. Toss in that we have a known injury that he was dealing with.... and its going to take a lot more than a "gut feeling" to convince anyone who enjoys thinking rationally that your side is even close to the right now.

gilpdawg
11-17-2011, 02:14 AM
......and why is his batting average significantly lower? :laugh:

Who are you, Thom Brennaman? :)

Sent from my SGH-I897 using Tapatalk

Captain Hook
12-05-2011, 11:24 PM
Seems to be a lot smoke and even a report of fire here.

I for one would be pretty happy if the Reds could acquire Jurrjens.I'd like to see a deal that sends Stubbs and a decent prospect to the Braves. Doesn't seem like the usual trade chips that are discussed would be desired by the Braves and Stubbs is expendable.

REDREAD
12-06-2011, 12:50 AM
I would love to add Jar Jar Jurrjens to the rotation.

Then you could trade Homer or Wood for a LF or closer, since there'd be no room for them.

Mario-Rijo
12-06-2011, 02:18 AM
If the league figured him out, why is his strikeout rate the same? Why is his walk rate still well above average? Why was his power similar?

If the league had figured him out, wouldn't those rates have been quite different?

The difference was a better walk rate and a higher BABIP from 2010 to 2011.

No not at all. If a guy has a tendency and the league figures it out and that tendency is one where a player likes swinging at a certain pitch but tends to put it in play weakly then you start pelting him with that particular pitch. I remember when Brandon (and Matt Kemp as well) could not lay off that outside slider, the difference in the 2 was Brandon still often made contact with the pitch but often did nothing with it. When he backed off that pitch a bit he improved because the pitcher now had no easy way to attack him and had to play more into BP's game.

All that said most never make the change, some because they won't and some because they simply cannot fix the problem. I don't pretend to know Heywards deal but if he makes weak contact on a slider all the time and he never stops being overly aggressive on that pitch he is gonna continue to have a low BABIP to some extent. If the reason isn't discipline but something not fixable he'll likely get worse & fade away. Heisey might be the safest of these 3 players.