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CySeymour
12-07-2011, 11:28 AM
Street traded to SD for a minor leaguer to be named later. SD will pay most of Street's $8MM salary.

I guess Volquez's value = a minor leaguer to be named later.


More likely BCast wasn't wanting to take on Street's salary.

CySeymour
12-07-2011, 11:29 AM
Jocketty continues to sit on his hands. Make some moves to fix this team

It is frustrating. The franchise needs to do something to energize the fanbase, but they continue to take the cheap way out. True, they can't spend like the Cubs et al, but invest SOMETHING to win now.

Edd Roush
12-07-2011, 11:30 AM
Since we have a very set payroll in the mid-80s, I have no interest in tying up 1/10th of that on a closer. Drew Storen is the best candidate. I would deal Sappelt, Heisey or Stubbs for him straight up. He will be dirt cheap the next two years and then controllable under arbitration for three more. If he got traded for pretty much nothing, then I would be upset.

I am not upset at all in losing out on Street if we would have had to pick up most of his salary.

CySeymour
12-07-2011, 11:31 AM
Since we have a very set payroll in the mid-80s, I have no interest in tying up 1/10th of that on a closer. Drew Storen is the best candidate. I would deal Sappelt, Heisey or Stubbs for him straight up. He will be dirt cheap the next two years and then controllable under arbitration for three more. If he got traded for pretty much nothing, then I would be upset.

I am not upset at all in losing out on Street if we would have had to pick up most of his salary.

With all due respect, Edd, that is a pretty lopsided deal in favor of the Nationals. Those are a lot of valuable assets to give up for a relief pitcher.

_Sir_Charles_
12-07-2011, 11:54 AM
With all due respect, Edd, that is a pretty lopsided deal in favor of the Nationals. Those are a lot of valuable assets to give up for a relief pitcher.

I think Edd was saying one of Sappelt, Heisey or Stubbs. Not 2 or 3 of them.

CySeymour
12-07-2011, 12:05 PM
I think Edd was saying one of Sappelt, Heisey or Stubbs. Not 2 or 3 of them.

Opps, my bad. Might help if I don't try to speed read.

HokieRed
12-07-2011, 12:52 PM
As a guy who is forced to watch the Nationals a lot, I can't see them even considering moving Storen, one of the best and cheapest closers in the game, for any one of Stubbs, Heisey, or Sappelt. They might talk to Walt about Stubbs, but I don't think he'd even get a returned phone call about the other two (whom I happen to like actually but simply aren't worth Storen.) Remember what this means for a team's budget. The Reds just got done paying somebody approx. 12 M for closing approximately as effectively as Drew Storen.

cumberlandreds
12-07-2011, 01:21 PM
As a guy who is forced to watch the Nationals a lot, I can't see them even considering moving Storen, one of the best and cheapest closers in the game, for any one of Stubbs, Heisey, or Sappelt. They might talk to Walt about Stubbs, but I don't think he'd even get a returned phone call about the other two (whom I happen to like actually but simply aren't worth Storen.) Remember what this means for a team's budget. The Reds just got done paying somebody approx. 12 M for closing approximately as effectively as Drew Storen.

I'm the same way. There's no way the Nats are dealing Storen unless its for something spectacular. They really like him and consider him one of key building blocks for a contending team.

RedEye
12-07-2011, 01:42 PM
Troy Renck is reporting on Twitter that the Rockies still might get Volquez. Not sure what that would mean for the Reds though...

http://twitter.com/#!/TroyRenck/statuses/144476556780257281

johngalt
12-07-2011, 01:48 PM
Troy Renck is reporting on Twitter that the Rockies still might get Volquez. Not sure what that would mean for the Reds though...

http://twitter.com/#!/TroyRenck/statuses/144476556780257281

Someone in the Denver Post (maybe Renck) was saying the Reds were after Seth Smith possibly in a deal for Volquez.

RedEye
12-07-2011, 01:52 PM
Someone in the Denver Post (maybe Renck) was saying the Reds were after Seth Smith possibly in a deal for Volquez.

Interesting. If that came to pass, I would assume that Yonder and/or one of Stubbs/Heisey would need to be moved in order to avoid a real logjam.

klw
12-07-2011, 01:57 PM
Someone in the Denver Post (maybe Renck) was saying the Reds were after Seth Smith possibly in a deal for Volquez.

Here you go:
http://blogs.denverpost.com/rockies/2011/12/07/rockies-focus-shifts-to-volquez-kuroda/10041/


With money moved in the Huston Street deal, the Rockies have shifted their focus to landing a starting pitcher. Talks with the Reds for right-hander Edinson Volquez remain alive, according to a major league source. The teams have discussed a deal several times. Cincinnati has some interest in outfielder Seth Smith, but he might not be necessary to complete a deal.

The Rockies have also increased their pursuit of free agent right hander Hiroki Kuroda, whom the Diamondbacks, Cubs and Red Sox all like.

Dan
12-07-2011, 02:01 PM
I'd carry EV on my back all the way to Coors field if it meant a one-for-one trade for Seth Smith.

HokieRed
12-07-2011, 02:04 PM
I'm the same way. There's no way the Nats are dealing Storen unless its for something spectacular. They really like him and consider him one of key building blocks for a contending team.

Having watched him pitch a lot, I think they're dead right about this.

savafan
12-07-2011, 02:04 PM
12:54pm: One GM who spoke with the Rockies tells ESPN's Jayson Stark the Padres-Street deal is not done and the Colorado is still talking to at least one other team.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

RedEye
12-07-2011, 02:04 PM
If the return for EV is not Seth Smith, then who would it be?

Benihana
12-07-2011, 02:05 PM
Thing is, something's gotta give if the Reds get Smith. Bruce, Stubbs, Heisey, Smith, Alonso, Francisco and Frazier (not to mention Sappelt) is wayyyyyyyyyy too crowded and redundant of an OF.

I'm more interested in what/when the other shoe is going to drop, if in fact the Reds are talking about Seth Smith.

Dan
12-07-2011, 02:09 PM
If the return for EV is not Seth Smith, then who would it be?

I'm liking the utility guy Jonathan Herrera. That seems more reasonable than Seth Smith for EV.

RedEye
12-07-2011, 02:10 PM
Thing is, something's gotta give if the Reds get Smith. Bruce, Stubbs, Heisey, Smith, Alonso, Francisco and Frazier (not to mention Sappelt) is wayyyyyyyyyy too crowded and redundant of an OF.

I'm more interested in what/when the other shoe is going to drop, if in fact the Reds are talking about Seth Smith.

Me, too. It seems there will be a logjam at 1B/OF if Smith comes to Cincy. After scanning the Rockies roster, I was thinking that another player who might make sense for the Reds is Ian Stewart. He really is sort of the 3B version of Edinson Volquez -- and would provide some decent back up for Rolen.

RedEye
12-07-2011, 02:10 PM
I'm liking the utility guy Jonathan Herrera. That seems more reasonable than Seth Smith for EV.

Why do the Reds need a utility guy? Am I missing something?

LoganBuck
12-07-2011, 02:14 PM
Smith is completely helpless versus lefties. He would make an interesting guy to mix with Stubbs/Heisey.

757690
12-07-2011, 02:15 PM
Volquez for Seth Smith

Alonso plus others for Shields

Basically Smith and Shields for Alonso, Volquez and spare parts.

I could live with that, if it happened.

savafan
12-07-2011, 02:18 PM
Rosenthal says the Reds are still pursuing Gio Gonzalez and the A's are looking for players with zero or little big league experience.

RedEye
12-07-2011, 02:19 PM
With the continuous whispering about Gio Gonzalez and Tampa Bay, it seems pretty clear at this point that Walt is at least trying to land a pitcher before the meetings end.

johngalt
12-07-2011, 02:21 PM
It was Renck. Here's the link.

http://blogs.denverpost.com/rockies/2011/12/07/rockies-focus-shifts-to-volquez-kuroda/10041/

RedEye
12-07-2011, 02:21 PM
Gosh, I'm just not sure Gio is the kind of pitcher who can take the Reds to the promise land. Not a terrible acquisition idea, but one would hope there would be another, more solid SP to go along with him.

klw
12-07-2011, 02:22 PM
It was Renck. Here's the link.

http://blogs.denverpost.com/rockies/2011/12/07/rockies-focus-shifts-to-volquez-kuroda/10041/

That link is soooo 24 minutes ago. ;);)

Dan
12-07-2011, 02:24 PM
Why do the Reds need a utility guy? Am I missing something?

They need a backup that can play shortstop. Instead of signing a vet, why not go with a younger guy who has some major league experience and could be productive in limited opportunities?

RedEye
12-07-2011, 02:26 PM
They need a backup that can play shortstop. Instead of signing a vet, why not go with a younger guy who has some major league experience and could be productive in limited opportunities?

Okay, sure, I guess that makes sense. Would be a pretty anticlimactic transaction after all of this... but that's Walt's forte. :)

Edd Roush
12-07-2011, 02:34 PM
I think Edd was saying one of Sappelt, Heisey or Stubbs. Not 2 or 3 of them.

Yes, Sir Charles, I was talking about trading one of the three for Storen. Like other posters who have replied since my initial post, I do think Storen has more value than any of the three on their own. I would chip in spare minor league parts (ie not top 10 prospects) along with their favorite center fielder for Storen. If we allocate less than $1,000,000/year on closer, we can afford in our budget to add a Shields. So not only are you upgrading closer, but you are allowing the upgrade at TOR starter.

Dan
12-07-2011, 02:35 PM
Rosenthal says the Reds are still pursuing Gio Gonzalez and the A's are looking for players with zero or little big league experience.

We have that in droves: Fransisco, Frazier, Grandal, Sappelt, Boxberger, Wood, Alonso.

Dan
12-07-2011, 02:36 PM
Okay, sure, I guess that makes sense. Would be a pretty anticlimactic transaction after all of this... but that's Walt's forte. :)

That's part of what I was getting at. We're all expecting Filet Mignon and will wind up getting served flank steak.

Tom Servo
12-07-2011, 02:45 PM
I've been a fan of Gio Gonzalez for a while. I know some of his peripherals seem worrisome but I really think he's yet to reach his ceiling.

RedEye
12-07-2011, 02:48 PM
I've been a fan of Gio Gonzalez for a while. I know some of his peripherals seem worrisome but I really think he's yet to reach his ceiling.

Probably true that he's got more upside. But I don't think he's the rock right now the Reds need at the top of the rotation. He's every bit as likely to regress as he is to take a step up. That's doesn't mean I don't like him. It just means I'm not sure that he's who the Reds should be using their surplus of young offensive players to acquire.

Benihana
12-07-2011, 02:50 PM
Mets Being Aggressive; Discussing Ike Davis
By Tim Dierkes [December 7 at 1:45pm CST]
The Mets are being aggressive at the Winter Meetings, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post, talking about everyone except David Wright. Sherman says the Mets are talking with suitors seriously about Ike Davis, whom the Mets insist is fully healthy. The Rangers are known to like Davis, he adds. Davis, 24, missed most of the season with an ankle injury.

If true, that may muddy the market for Alonso.

Tom Servo
12-07-2011, 02:51 PM
Probably true that he's got more upside. But I don't think he's the rock right now the Reds need at the top of the rotation. He's every bit as likely to regress as he is to take a step up. That's doesn't mean I don't like him. It just means I'm not sure that he's who the Reds should be using their surplus of young offensive players to acquire.
I'll agree with that, I would rather the Reds not unload the 'farm' as it were on Gonzalez if that is the price.

RedEye
12-07-2011, 02:52 PM
Davis, 24, missed most of the season with an ankle injury.

Man, I didn't realize that Davis was still so young. If he plays a league average first base, he's a step up on Alonso in more ways than one.

EDIT: Okay, never mind. For some reason I thought Alonso was 25 or 26. He's also 24, so they are even there. Still, Davis does make the market more complicated -- as Benihana mentioned.

Benihana
12-07-2011, 02:56 PM
Man, I didn't realize that Davis was still so young. If he plays a league average first base, he's a step up on Alonso in more ways than one.

EDIT: Okay, never mind. For some reason I thought Alonso was 25 or 26. He's also 24, so they are even there. Still, Davis does make the market more complicated -- as Benihana mentioned.

Alonso and Davis were selected out of college in the first round of the same draft.

RedEye
12-07-2011, 02:58 PM
From MLBTR echoing Rosenthal (http://twitter.com/#!/Ken_Rosenthal/status/144502344250441728):


Add Athletics righty Trevor Cahill to the list of pitchers under pursuit by the Diamondbacks, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. He says they'd need to surrender Tyler Skaggs for Gio Gonzalez, but not for Cahill. Cahill, 23, is signed through 2015 with club options on the '16 and '17 seasons.

In November, Rosenthal reported the A's were willing to listen to trade offers for any player other than Jemile Weeks.

Though the Reds aren't included in this post, you have to think that news like this -- combined with Walt's comments to Sheldon about the pursuit of starting pitching -- would mean that Cahill is also a name that has been bandied about in Cincy. Since there are a finite number of goods starters available, one would hope that Walt et al. are leaving no stone unturned.

_Sir_Charles_
12-07-2011, 03:43 PM
Probably not worthy of a thread of it's own, but the Pirates just signed Erik Bedard. 4.5 million. I know he's an injury risk (to understate it), but this might just be one heck of a steal for the Pirates.

bucksfan2
12-07-2011, 03:51 PM
Probably not worthy of a thread of it's own, but the Pirates just signed Erik Bedard. 4.5 million. I know he's an injury risk (to understate it), but this might just be one heck of a steal for the Pirates.

Just think a few years ago we could have had him for Votto and Cueto.

RedEye
12-07-2011, 03:53 PM
Just think a few years ago we could have had him for Votto and Cueto.

That was perhaps the most epic thread I've ever been a part of at RZ.

_Sir_Charles_
12-07-2011, 03:57 PM
That was perhaps the most epic thread I've ever been a part of at RZ.

Yep, that was fun. Ridiculous...but fun. :O)

_Sir_Charles_
12-07-2011, 04:00 PM
Mets Jonathon Niese on the blocks too it seems. Takers? (personally, I'll pass. I find it mildly amusing that MLBTraderumors is suggesting that he might be a viable alternative to Gio. Not buyin that one)

Edd Roush
12-07-2011, 04:02 PM
Mets Jonathon Niese on the blocks too it seems. Takers?

I like Niese better than some of the other names that have been thrown around here. I wonder what he would cost in terms of talent. I sure like that he cut his BB rate big time last year while not sacrificing any strikeouts. Furthermore, he is going to be really cheap next year and under control through 2015.

He would make a good consolation prize if we don't land Shields.

johngalt
12-07-2011, 04:21 PM
That link is soooo 24 minutes ago. ;);)

Haha - I totally realized it right after I posted and just hoped no one would notice. :)

Benihana
12-07-2011, 04:35 PM
http://twitter.com/#!/Buster_ESPN/status/144522680060751872

dunner13
12-07-2011, 04:40 PM
http://twitter.com/#!/Buster_ESPN/status/144522680060751872

The last thing the reds need is a guy who showed he could care less about baseball last year and now shows he could care less about his team. We would be much better off taken the money we would spend on Hanley and giving it to Votto.

corkedbat
12-07-2011, 04:46 PM
If we use Alonso for a starter, I'd love to have Seth Smith as a second LH bat on the bench along side Francisco.

Todd Frazier (R)/Miguel Cairo (R)
Paul Janish (R)/Jonathan Herrera (B)
Juan Francisco (L)
Chris Heisey(R)/Dave Sappelt (R)
Ryan Hannigan (R)

Not bad balance (especially if the Rox include switch-hitting Jonathan Herrera instead of Janish - or later we bring up switch-hitting Didi Gregorious)

MikeS21
12-07-2011, 04:53 PM
Dmitri Young? Really?


@johnfayman
#Reds will consider taking a flyer on Dmitri Young. Jocketty hasn't been able to connect with him yet.

Benihana
12-07-2011, 04:53 PM
The last thing the reds need is a guy who showed he could care less about baseball last year and now shows he could care less about his team. We would be much better off taken the money we would spend on Hanley and giving it to Votto.

I'd rather have both for at least the next two years and actually try to win a World Series rather than tread water with the status quo

mattfeet
12-07-2011, 04:58 PM
Dmitri Young? Really?

What do they have to lose on this?

-Matt

TRF
12-07-2011, 05:08 PM
What do they have to lose on this?

-Matt

The buffet budget for spring training.

Benihana
12-07-2011, 05:12 PM
Dmitri Young and Cody Ross. Great. Maybe while we're at it we can see what Chris Stynes is up to.

Scrap Irony
12-07-2011, 05:18 PM
If Alonso is dealt, a platoon of Seth Smith and Todd Frazier or Dave Sappelt in LF with Chris Heisey in CF would be really interesting. Lots of power and some decent OBP for cheap. Good deal, IMO, if they can get him for Volquez.

The interest in Cody Ross is also weird. You'd think, with four 'tweeners already on the 40-man, they wouldn't be looking for another.

In fact, any interest in an OF would seem to me to signal that Jocketty has a couple deals in place-- I'm guessing Heisey and Alonso.

mattfeet
12-07-2011, 05:19 PM
The nice thing about having Cody Ross on the team would be that he could no longer kill us as a Brave/Marlin. lol

Sign him, ship him to AAA.

-Matt

MikeS21
12-07-2011, 05:26 PM
What do they have to lose on this?

-Matt
Here is what will happen: Dmitri will sign and there'll be the obligatory press conference where they say that he's hungry and in the best shape of his life, yada, yada. Then he will go to spring training and shag a few fly balls in the OF, and suddenly he has earned playing time in LF. He will have a great spring training where his OBS is around 1.950. He'll make the team out of ST as the starting LF amid much fanfare and become the feel good story of the year in Cincy. And then by the second week of the season, when he has gone 0-30 with 25 K's, everyone will wonder what the Reds were thinking and call for DY to be DFA'd.

Cut him now, and save us all the hassle of talking about it come April.

Tom Servo
12-07-2011, 05:33 PM
Say what you will about the other facets of his game and life, but Dmitri has always been able to hit.


and damn, Bedard to the Bucs for 1 year/4.5 million is a nice deal for them.

camisadelgolf
12-07-2011, 05:44 PM
The buffet budget for spring training.
I was going to tell that joke. :(

savafan
12-07-2011, 05:50 PM
12:54pm: One GM who spoke with the Rockies tells ESPN's Jayson Stark the Padres-Street deal is not done and the Colorado is still talking to at least one other team.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/


The delay in finalizing the Street deal occurred because the Rockies were close to sending him to the Reds for Edinson Volquez, tweets Renck.

Kc61
12-07-2011, 05:53 PM
It would be fitting for the Reds to conclude this off-season with no major acquisition -- but with the signing of Dmitry Young.

Imagine the meeting with Joey Votto's agents about a new contract. "Well, we've tried to improve the ballclub. We went out and signed a proven major league hitter in Dmitry Young. Sure, he's been essentially retired for awhile, but he hit very well during one of MLB's golden eras . . ."

Can anyone imagine Votto re-signing with this outfit?

Mario-Rijo
12-07-2011, 06:11 PM
It's the same every single off season with Walt in charge. Get mentioned in alot of rumors, talk yourself like you have interest in doing something but never quite reach the point where you get a deal done. Brilliant homework by Jock here he realizes his predecessor was run out of town in large part for not being mentioned enough (yet making deals that helped the club) in the rumors. Appear active but do nothing it keeps people believing something will happen sooner or later. I've said it a hundred times by now Walt Jocketty may not be that good a talent evaluator but he is a master of manipulating a fan base to squeeze every last ticket purchase possible out of them. And he also uses the media quite well to carry his message. The fact he has even discussed anyone making any money ought to tip his hand here, nobody else is in a desperate enough situation to leave their current team that they will restructure their contract to come here.

Plus Plus
12-07-2011, 06:17 PM
“When you start to talk to other clubs, their ideas are a lot different than ours and vice versa,” Jocketty said. “We’ve had some unusual proposals thrown at us that we wouldn’t consider.”

Trades take two...

Slyder
12-07-2011, 07:12 PM
Dmitri Young? Really?

Why not bring him in and take a look? Minor League Contract and an invite to ST.

Matt700wlw
12-07-2011, 07:17 PM
Why not bring him in and take a look? Minor League Contract and an invite to ST.

Dusty would take PT away from somone undeserving to make sure Dimitri gets every opportunity.

savafan
12-07-2011, 07:18 PM
If there's one thing I'm learning from Twitter during these winter meetings, it is that John Fay has to be one of the worst at covering the game today, and he does so in such a self important manner that it's nauseating to read and watch.

mace
12-07-2011, 07:38 PM
Trying to think of all the pitchers the Reds have been "in on," "close to" or at least "involved with" in the past calendar year. Offhand, there's Bailey, Street, Jurrjens, Shields, Jimenez, Wandy. That's not going as far back as Cliff Lee, of course. I'm pretty sure I'm missing a few.

Other than a political advertisement, is there anything less credible than a Reds rumor?

savafan
12-07-2011, 07:42 PM
Other than a political advertisement, is there anything less credible than a Reds rumor?

Movie trailers

marcshoe
12-07-2011, 07:44 PM
In a world where the Reds are in on every available pitcher....

mace
12-07-2011, 07:53 PM
In a world where the Reds are in on every available pitcher....

ONE MAN . . . cannot be acquired. (Not one stinkin' man.)

savafan
12-07-2011, 08:01 PM
Nicely played. Both of you. :)

Puffy
12-07-2011, 08:05 PM
Trades take two...

No, no, no. Its all Jocketty's fault. He is supposed to get every player we want who might be available for either Todd Frazier or Tucker Barnhardt

Puffy
12-07-2011, 08:06 PM
But not both of them cause then he would be giving up too much.

thatcoolguy_22
12-07-2011, 08:07 PM
ONE MAN . . . cannot be acquired. (Not one stinkin' man.)

Until... Kyle, Kyle Lohse was plucked from the grips of the world's super power. 2012... The Reds Strike Back

savafan
12-07-2011, 08:08 PM
I'm waiting for the return of Toe Nash.

Patrick Bateman
12-07-2011, 08:15 PM
Niese is a good fit.

Young, cost controlled, on the upswing. A great fit with our core.

Gallen5862
12-07-2011, 10:30 PM
http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20111207&content_id=26123168&vkey=news_cin&c_id=cin

With their roster currently at 39 players, Cincinnati could be active in Thursday's Rule 5 Draft. Jocketty gave indication he is trying to do a deal so the Reds can move up to get a higher pick.
"We're trying to get into a better position to do that, yes," Jocketty said of the Rule 5 Draft.

Gallen5862
12-07-2011, 10:31 PM
Who could the Reds be targeting in the Rule V draft? Any thoughts?

Gallen5862
12-07-2011, 10:35 PM
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20111202&content_id=26078870&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb
2011 Rule 5 Draft order
No. Team 40-man roster
1 Astros 38
2 Twins 38
3 Mariners 37
4 Orioles 39
5 Royals 40
6 Cubs 34
7 Padres 40
8 Pirates 40
9 Marlins 40
10 Rockies 39
11 Athletics 39
12 Mets 38
13 White Sox 36
14 Reds 39
15 Indians 40
16 Nationals 37
17 Blue Jays 40
18 Dodgers 40
19 Angels 37
20 Giants 40
21 Braves 36
22 Cardinals 36
23 Red Sox 38
24 Rays 39
25 D-backs 35
26 Tigers 39
27 Brewers 35
28 Rangers 37
29 Yankees 39
30 Phillies 39

corkedbat
12-07-2011, 11:41 PM
Yay! Looks like there's a very real chance the Reds take someone in the Rule V. At least we may have something real to talk about for the next 20-25 pages.

dougdirt
12-08-2011, 12:14 AM
Yay! Looks like there's a very real chance the Reds take someone in the Rule V. At least we may have something real to talk about for the next 20-25 pages.

It is the Rule 5. I hope they surprise me, but I haven't seen anyone out there who looks nice.

mth123
12-08-2011, 06:29 AM
Niese is a good fit.

Young, cost controlled, on the upswing. A great fit with our core.

Not exactly the proven guy I'm hoping for, but I like the idea. He's better than his numbers and the Reds defense would give him a boost IMO. The Mets have been pretty shakey in the OF and the middle infield (especially 2B). SIERA and xFIP seem to like him. Probably a left handed Leake. Maybe a little better. Wonder what it would take?

MLBTradeRumors says a placeholder starter and a prospect. Volquez and Grandal? I'd do that.

Edd Roush
12-08-2011, 08:17 AM
Not exactly the proven guy I'm hoping for, but I like the idea. He's better than his numbers and the Reds defense would give him a boost IMO. The Mets have been pretty shakey in the OF and the middle infield (especially 2B). SIERA and xFIP seem to like him. Probably a left handed Leake. Maybe a little better. Wonder what it would take?

MLBTradeRumors says a placeholder starter and a prospect. Volquez and Grandal? I'd do that.

I'm also on the Niese bandwagon, but I wouldn't want to deal for him until I know for a fact that I can't get Shields OR I deal Arroyo away. I don't think Niese is enough to put us over the hump in this window.

Mario-Rijo
12-08-2011, 08:36 AM
It is the Rule 5. I hope they surprise me, but I haven't seen anyone out there who looks nice.

What about the MIF who was hurt and left off the 40 man and has been cleared to play recently? I think he was from S.D. or S.F.?

Redsfan320
12-08-2011, 09:47 AM
I'm guessing M-R is referring to Nick Noonan, 2007 1st rd. pick (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=noonan001nic) I could see him helping out some.

320

Vottomatic
12-08-2011, 10:23 AM
Reds pass on rule 5.

Jpup
12-08-2011, 10:33 AM
Time for the Reds to trade for Abreu from the Angels.

LoganBuck
12-08-2011, 10:35 AM
With the Brewers and Cardinals taking gut punches, losing their sluggers, now is the time for the Reds to make a splash. The division is wide open. Grab the reigns.

mdccclxix
12-08-2011, 11:01 AM
With the Brewers and Cardinals taking gut punches, losing their sluggers, now is the time for the Reds to make a splash. The division is wide open. Grab the reigns.

Yes, I like the way that sounds.

mdccclxix
12-08-2011, 11:09 AM
Still standing, and rapidly losing leverage: Free agents Ryan Madson, Francisco Cordero and the Oakland Athletics, who are trying to trade Andrew Bailey.
The Boston Red Sox and Cincinnati Reds, the only contenders still looking for closers, seemingly are in good position to strike bargains.

I would still prefer Bailey. If it had to expand to Brett Anderson, that would be even better.

Matt700wlw
12-08-2011, 11:15 AM
With the Brewers and Cardinals taking gut punches, losing their sluggers, now is the time for the Reds to make a splash. The division is wide open. Grab the reigns.

They're happy with what they have.

Vottomatic
12-08-2011, 11:21 AM
I would still prefer Bailey. If it had to expand to Brett Anderson, that would be even better.

It's being reported that Oakland A's are dealing Bailey for Trumbo with the Angels. Looks like Bailey is gone too now.

Benihana
12-08-2011, 01:03 PM
D'backs are edging closer to getting either Cahill or Gonzalez from Oakland. Oakland has their eyes on Trevor Bauer.

mdccclxix
12-08-2011, 01:09 PM
D'backs are edging closer to getting either Cahill or Gonzalez from Oakland. Oakland has their eyes on Trevor Bauer.

Oakland's rebuilding their rebuilding rebuilding effort.

Edd Roush
12-08-2011, 01:26 PM
It's being reported that Oakland A's are dealing Bailey for Trumbo with the Angels. Looks like Bailey is gone too now.

Trumbo is pretty close in value to Alonso I would imagine. Glad Walt didn't pull the trigger on that deal.

RANDY IN INDY
12-08-2011, 01:27 PM
If I were a betting man, I would bet that the Reds are going to end up with Jurrjens.

RedsManRick
12-08-2011, 01:33 PM
If I were a betting man, I would bet that the Reds are going to end up with Jurrjens.

That's the feeling I have as well.

Benihana
12-08-2011, 01:41 PM
If I were a betting man, I would bet that the Reds are going to end up with Jurrjens.

In order of likelihood IMO...

1. Jurrjens
2. Nothing
3. Guthrie
4. One of the Rays
5. One of the A's

In other (good) news, Peter Gammons reporting the Cubs don't have the cash for Fielder.

Edd Roush
12-08-2011, 02:00 PM
If I were a betting man, I would bet that the Reds are going to end up with Jurrjens.

Just not the guy I want...

I want Niese over him.

savafan
12-08-2011, 02:13 PM
Did Jocketty do something in his St. Louis days to cause other GMs to not want to deal with him?

Vottomatic
12-08-2011, 02:16 PM
Just not the guy I want...

I want Niese over him.

Niese? Geez. Kid has a career e.r.a. of 4.39, a shocking WHIP of 1.46, and opposing hitters bat .283 against him for his career.

I'd trade them Volquez straight up. Obviously both have control problems.

Edd Roush
12-08-2011, 02:33 PM
Niese? Geez. Kid has a career e.r.a. of 4.39, a shocking WHIP of 1.46, and opposing hitters bat .283 against him for his career.

I'd trade them Volquez straight up. Obviously both have control problems.

Gotta look at the peripherals. Niese has a better career and 2011 K rate than Jurrjens. Niese had a 7.9 K rate last year and a 7.6 career K rate, which is above average, compared to Jurrjens career K rate of 6.2 which tumbled to 5.3 last year. Plus, Jurrjens has lost 2 MPH off his fastball the last two years.

Niese also has the slight edge in career BB rate (3.0 vs 3.1) and 2011 BB rate (2.5 vs. 2.6).

Niese gives up more hits than Jurrjens, but that could be due to how much of a mess the Mets were last year. Niese also has a very similar HR rate than Jurrjens.

I would say Niese will have a better ERA than Jurrjens next year if both were to be on the Reds and Niese will cost less in terms of talent.

Rojo
12-08-2011, 03:08 PM
Dmitri Young? Really?

Mo Vaughn didn't return the call.

mace
12-08-2011, 05:07 PM
Peripherals are useful, of course. Telling, to a large extent. But Niese over Jurrjens? Because of K rate?

For the record, Bruce Berenyi, Dave Burba, Eric Plunk and Chan Ho Park have all posted better career K rates than, among others, Greg Maddux, Ferguson Jenkins, Bob Feller, Juan Marichal, Gaylord Perry, Don Sutton, Dizzy Dean, Grover Alexander and Christy Mathewson.

PuffyPig
12-08-2011, 05:40 PM
For the record, Bruce Berenyi, Dave Burba, Eric Plunk and Chan Ho Park have all posted better career K rates than, among others, Greg Maddux, Ferguson Jenkins, Bob Feller, Juan Marichal, Gaylord Perry, Don Sutton, Dizzy Dean, Grover Alexander and Christy Mathewson.


I don't need to look up these pitchers to know that they are some of trhe best control pitchers in the history of baseball.

So you proved that high K pitchers don't have a guarantee of success.

But that group of pitchers you mentioned also had decent K rates to go with immpecable control.

Jurrjens K rate and fastball have taken a nose dive, which is a red flag. You'll be paying a premium price to obtain a starter with a sub 3 ERA who likely will never reach that status again. Unless he conqueurs BABIP again.

MikeS21
12-08-2011, 06:23 PM
Did Jocketty do something in his St. Louis days to cause other GMs to not want to deal with him?
Build a dynasty?

The Operator
12-08-2011, 06:54 PM
Did Jocketty do something in his St. Louis days to cause other GMs to not want to deal with him?I can't remember anything like that for Jocko.

I do know that Leatherpants had quite a few enemies in his day after he would either ship off damaged goods in a trade (Jeff Brantley for Dmitri) or openly crow about how he beat the other GM (Junior).

Brutus
12-08-2011, 07:20 PM
Gotta look at the peripherals. Niese has a better career and 2011 K rate than Jurrjens. Niese had a 7.9 K rate last year and a 7.6 career K rate, which is above average, compared to Jurrjens career K rate of 6.2 which tumbled to 5.3 last year. Plus, Jurrjens has lost 2 MPH off his fastball the last two years.

Niese also has the slight edge in career BB rate (3.0 vs 3.1) and 2011 BB rate (2.5 vs. 2.6).

Niese gives up more hits than Jurrjens, but that could be due to how much of a mess the Mets were last year. Niese also has a very similar HR rate than Jurrjens.

I would say Niese will have a better ERA than Jurrjens next year if both were to be on the Reds and Niese will cost less in terms of talent.

This is the danger on relying too heavily on peripherals. As mentioned in another thread, most of Jurrjens' loss in velocity was switching types of fastballs. People sometimes see that loss in MPH and too often make snap judgments about it. The entire Braves' staff, short of Hanson, was trying to induce more grounders after seeing the success of Venters.

Matt700wlw
12-08-2011, 07:24 PM
I can't remember anything like that for Jocko.

I do know that Leatherpants had quite a few enemies in his day after he would either ship off damaged goods in a trade (Jeff Brantley for Dmitri) or openly crow about how he beat the other GM (Junior).

Jimbo sent the Reds damaged goods in "The Trade"

The Operator
12-08-2011, 07:39 PM
Jimbo sent the Reds damaged goods in "The Trade"
Yea, there's that too. :(

RANDY IN INDY
12-08-2011, 07:53 PM
That's why it is so hard for me to listen to him tell people how they should act with class on XM radio. What a hypocrite.

Superdude
12-08-2011, 09:50 PM
This is the danger on relying too heavily on peripherals. As mentioned in another thread, most of Jurrjens' loss in velocity was switching types of fastballs. People sometimes see that loss in MPH and too often make snap judgments about it. The entire Braves' staff, short of Hanson, was trying to induce more grounders after seeing the success of Venters.

Switching fastballs doesn't make him immune to peripherals numbers. The velocity loss with Jurrjens may be overblown, but that doesn't take away from the fact that his peripherals are pretty underwhelming.

Vottomatic
12-08-2011, 10:17 PM
Cueto quit trying to strike everyone out and he came close to leading the NL in e.r.a. for the season. Strikeouts aren't everything. There's more to pitching than that.

dougdirt
12-08-2011, 10:20 PM
Cueto quit trying to strike everyone out and he came close to leading the NL in e.r.a. for the season. Strikeouts aren't everything. There's more to pitching than that.

Strikeouts aren't everything, I will agree. But if you aren't striking a lot of guys out, you need to also not be walking hardly anyone. K/BB is more important than simply K rate. Problem is, Cueto doesn't have a good K/BB rate or a good K rate.

Historically, the guys who tend to have the best ERA's year after year are guys who either miss a lot of bats, or have very strong K/BB rates.

Brutus
12-08-2011, 10:36 PM
Switching fastballs doesn't make him immune to peripherals numbers. The velocity loss with Jurrjens may be overblown, but that doesn't take away from the fact that his peripherals are pretty underwhelming.

There's a huge difference between looking at peripherals and basing everything on peripherals. I'm a huge peripherals guy, but while they tell a good story, they don't tall the whole story. People should not make definitive conclusions based on them like they have been.

And the velocity loss isn't overblown, it's irrelevant. It has wholly to do with the fastball. He said even before the season started that he was going to more of a 2-seam fastball, and was focusing more on location and inducing contact rather than trying to overpower hitters. The result was a smaller strikeout rate, but a tremendous walk rate. In fact, you cite peripherals, yet his FIP actually improved this year down to 3.99.

I have no problem looking at peripherals. I do it myself. But to focus on them while ignoring the context of the how/why leads to unsupported and sometimes inaccurate conclusions.

I've had the pleasure of watching Jurrjens the last few years in Atlanta, and while I'm not getting paid six figures to scout professionally, I think this guy legitimate. His stated purpose to pitching did in fact improve his walk and groundball rates and significantly helped allowing fewer homers. So people looking at peripherals are missing the bigger picture. And for his career (702 innings), his ERA is nearly a half-run better than his FIP. It's time to consider that he might be one of those guys that can be a consistent outlier.

If people want to say he's not an 'ace,' then I agree wholeheartedly. But he's the prototype middle-of-rotation pitcher the Reds should be targeting for the bandbox they play in. I wouldn't give up a top prospect for him, but we don't know that would be necessary (again, comes back to context).

Edd Roush
12-09-2011, 07:54 AM
There's a huge difference between looking at peripherals and basing everything on peripherals. I'm a huge peripherals guy, but while they tell a good story, they don't tall the whole story. People should not make definitive conclusions based on them like they have been.

And the velocity loss isn't overblown, it's irrelevant. It has wholly to do with the fastball. He said even before the season started that he was going to more of a 2-seam fastball, and was focusing more on location and inducing contact rather than trying to overpower hitters. The result was a smaller strikeout rate, but a tremendous walk rate. In fact, you cite peripherals, yet his FIP actually improved this year down to 3.99.

I have no problem looking at peripherals. I do it myself. But to focus on them while ignoring the context of the how/why leads to unsupported and sometimes inaccurate conclusions.

I've had the pleasure of watching Jurrjens the last few years in Atlanta, and while I'm not getting paid six figures to scout professionally, I think this guy legitimate. His stated purpose to pitching did in fact improve his walk and groundball rates and significantly helped allowing fewer homers. So people looking at peripherals are missing the bigger picture. And for his career (702 innings), his ERA is nearly a half-run better than his FIP. It's time to consider that he might be one of those guys that can be a consistent outlier.

If people want to say he's not an 'ace,' then I agree wholeheartedly. But he's the prototype middle-of-rotation pitcher the Reds should be targeting for the bandbox they play in. I wouldn't give up a top prospect for him, but we don't know that would be necessary (again, comes back to context).

Brutus, what would be an appropriate price for Jurrjens?

Do you believe Jurrjens is in for a better 2012 than Niese?

Brutus
12-09-2011, 09:07 AM
Brutus, what would be an appropriate price for Jurrjens?

Do you believe Jurrjens is in for a better 2012 than Niese?

I actually prefer Niese myself because he gives the Reds a lot of what Jurrjens does and more (the low walk rates and high groundball/low homer rates). If I'm deciding between the two, Niese probably has slightly more upside and might even be statistically a better bet. I'm actually with the camp that prefers him, I just think Jurrjens is being undersold a bit.

As far as what I'd give up... honestly I would probably have to hear it to know if I'm on board. I wouldn't give up one of the top 2-3 prospects in the organization, nor would I give up Chapman or one of the core players, but anything beyond that I think would be worth considering.

REDREAD
12-09-2011, 09:22 AM
I'm not so sure why people love Shields so much more than Jurgens.
Shields gave up 26 HR last year, and 34 HR the year before.
Isn't that a potential worry in the GAB too?

Shields was not that great of a pitcher in 2009-2010 either.

Of course, I would not mind Shields, but I don't see him as head and shoulders above Jurgens (assuming Jurgens is healthy, which is a big assumption, I just don't know).
Either one would be a good addtion, IMO.

Danks is a notch below Jurgens/Shields, IMO, but I would welcome him too.

Brutus
12-09-2011, 09:38 AM
I'm not so sure why people love Shields so much more than Jurgens.
Shields gave up 26 HR last year, and 34 HR the year before.
Isn't that a potential worry in the GAB too?

Shields was not that great of a pitcher in 2009-2010 either.

Of course, I would not mind Shields, but I don't see him as head and shoulders above Jurgens (assuming Jurgens is healthy, which is a big assumption, I just don't know).
Either one would be a good addtion, IMO.

Danks is a notch below Jurgens/Shields, IMO, but I would welcome him too.

Shields has pitched nearly 450 innings the last two years. He's given up more homers because he's pitched far deeper into games than most starters. Last year though he gave up fewer than one homer per 9 innings. He had a 3.5/1 K/BB rate last year, a 1.3/1 GB/FB ratio and is extreme pitch-count efficient to work deep into games (i.e. innings eater). He would be the best pitcher on the Reds staff.

I'd be glad with any of the three guys, but Shields is the most talented of the three. I guess an argument could be made that Niese would be better if the Reds could get him for much less than what Shields would require, but if we're talking the need for a frontline starter, Shields comes closest to fitting that bill.

REDREAD
12-09-2011, 09:49 AM
Shields has pitched nearly 450 innings the last two years. He's given up more homers because he's pitched far deeper into games than most starters. Last year though he gave up fewer than one homer per 9 innings. He had a 3.5/1 K/BB rate last year, a 1.3/1 GB/FB ratio and is extreme pitch-count efficient to work deep into games (i.e. innings eater). He would be the best pitcher on the Reds staff.

I'd be glad with any of the three guys, but Shields is the most talented of the three. I guess an argument could be made that Niese would be better if the Reds could get him for much less than what Shields would require, but if we're talking the need for a frontline starter, Shields comes closest to fitting that bill.

That's fair enough. The amount of innings Shields pitches is a plus.
Is 2012 going to be the 2011 or 2010 version of Shields though?
I guess my main point is that Shields is not a Zero Risk "ACE" either.
(And I know you aren't claiming he is either).

TRF
12-09-2011, 09:51 AM
I'm not so sure why people love Shields so much more than Jurgens.
Shields gave up 26 HR last year, and 34 HR the year before.
Isn't that a potential worry in the GAB too?

Shields was not that great of a pitcher in 2009-2010 either.

Of course, I would not mind Shields, but I don't see him as head and shoulders above Jurgens (assuming Jurgens is healthy, which is a big assumption, I just don't know).
Either one would be a good addtion, IMO.

Danks is a notch below Jurgens/Shields, IMO, but I would welcome him too.

Shields, in his career has averaged 205 IP. Jurjens, 140, Shields career average for K's is 177. Jurjens 96. Jurjens career WHIP is 1.28 in the NL East, Shields 1.23 in the AL East.

Yeah, it really isn't close.

dunner13
12-09-2011, 10:06 AM
The more I look at the pitchers available the more I think Trevor Cahill might be the best guy to get. Hes only 23 and already has an 18 win season. Last year he struggled with command and didnt have a great year but because of that we might be able to get a potential ace and at least a solid #2 for a discount. Hes signed thru 2015 and doesnt really get expensive until 2015 when he makes 12m. But for 2012 - 3.5M 2013 - 5.5 2014 - 7.5 Which is pretty cheap if hes a solid #2 pitcher. Plus hes a sinkerball pitcher so that should help him alot pitching in GABP and we have a really good infield defense which should help. I'm sure the A's are asking alot but if we could get him for a decent price I think he might be a better option then even James Shield.

dougdirt
12-09-2011, 10:14 AM
The more I look at the pitchers available the more I think Trevor Cahill might be the best guy to get. Hes only 23 and already has an 18 win season. Last year he struggled with command and didnt have a great year but because of that we might be able to get a potential ace and at least a solid #2 for a discount. Hes signed thru 2015 and doesnt really get expensive until 2015 when he makes 12m. But for 2012 - 3.5M 2013 - 5.5 2014 - 7.5 Which is pretty cheap if hes a solid #2 pitcher. Plus hes a sinkerball pitcher so that should help him alot pitching in GABP and we have a really good infield defense which should help. I'm sure the A's are asking alot but if we could get him for a decent price I think he might be a better option then even James Shield.

Other than salary, nothing about Trevor Cahill makes him a better option than James Shields. Shields is better than him in every category other than the overrated "groundball rate". I like groundballs, so don't get me wrong there, but in terms of what I want my pitcher to do on the mound, generate groundballs is not at the top of the list and its important is much further behind things like walks and strikeouts.

Vottomatic
12-09-2011, 12:13 PM
Man. Didn't realize how brutal the ORG was until I got here. You guys really tear into eachother. Alot of insults said and unsaid.

Merry Christmas!

dougdirt
12-09-2011, 12:16 PM
Man. Didn't realize how brutal the ORG was until I got here. You guys really tear into eachother. Alot of insults said and unsaid.


I think we have gotten rather argumentative lately as a result of what the team has or hasn't done. While there has always been discussion in the past about what we should or shouldn't do, expectations weren't nearly as high and I think that has pushed all of us to the next level of "our side" in what we think the Reds should do. To top it off, I think that the ORG is full of a bunch of really smart people and those people, myself included, tend to make up their mind about something and plant their feet in the ground on it.

RedlegJake
12-09-2011, 12:23 PM
Man. Didn't realize how brutal the ORG was until I got here. You guys really tear into eachother. Alot of insults said and unsaid.

Merry Christmas!

I agree pretty much with Doug and also might add that its not often taken too much as an insult as sharp banter - at least by me - when you argue with people that have a clue and have studied the game as much or more than you and love the Reds with the same heated passion, then you have to accept the give-and-take is going to have some heat and passion in it too.

AmarilloRed
12-09-2011, 12:45 PM
Looking at the rumored Brandon Phillips-Yunel Escobar trade, do the 2014 and 2015 team options on Escobar remain team options if a trade is made?

dunner13
12-09-2011, 12:48 PM
Other than salary, nothing about Trevor Cahill makes him a better option than James Shields. Shields is better than him in every category other than the overrated "groundball rate". I like groundballs, so don't get me wrong there, but in terms of what I want my pitcher to do on the mound, generate groundballs is not at the top of the list and its important is much further behind things like walks and strikeouts.

I have been around enough to know that you normally know what your talking about Doug and I do agree Shields is much more the sure thing right now and the better pitcher right now. But hes also a pitcher that we probably cant keep for more then 2-3 years because he will be to expensive. Cahill is incredibly young and has the upside of someone like Lowe in his prime. Plus it seems fairly obvious at this point that the rays are asking for the moon for Shields so would you rather give up the whole farm for 2 years of shields or give up less and have Cahill for 4-5 years and maybe even longer. And if Cahill can repeat his 2010 season of 18-8 2.97 ERA I would say he can be better then Shields.

Benihana
12-09-2011, 01:07 PM
Looking at the rumored Brandon Phillips-Yunel Escobar trade, do the 2014 and 2015 team options on Escobar remain team options if a trade is made?

FWIW, I'm not interested in this trade.

I have liked Escobar for a long time, but I think that Cozart has the potential to equate Escobar's production over the long-term (significantly better glove, slightly inferior stick) and I'd rather hang onto Phillips, a gold-glove 2B who brings energy and ~20-20 numbers.

If I am going to trade Phillips for a SS with an attitude problem, I'm more interested in doing it for Hanley Ramirez (or a #1 SP.)

Gallen5862
12-09-2011, 01:23 PM
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/


eddymk Reds sign RHPs Sean Gallagher & Luis Atilano, two one-time prospects with big league experience, to minor league deals.

RANDY IN INDY
12-09-2011, 01:29 PM
Filling out the minor league rosters?

RedLegSuperStar
12-09-2011, 02:13 PM
Filling out the minor league rosters?

Nope those are your big splashes

camisadelgolf
12-09-2011, 05:47 PM
Nope those are your big splashes
http://troll.me/images/successful-black-man/this-is-my-serious-face.jpg

Gallen5862
12-09-2011, 07:45 PM
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

Marlins Designate Clay Hensley For Assignment
By Mark Polishuk [December 9 at 2:42pm CST]
The Marlins have designated right-hander Clay Hensley for assignment, reports Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com (via Twitter). Hensley was considered to be a non-tender candidate by MLBTR's Tim Dierkes, given how the righty was going through arbitration for a second time and looked to earn a raise from his $1.4MM salary.

If healthy, Hensley could be a valuable right-handed asset to a team's bullpen, so it's possible another club might put in a claim.

Gallen5862
12-09-2011, 08:04 PM
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

D'Backs May Trade Joe Saunders
By Dan Mennella [December 9 at 6:44pm CST]
The Diamondbacks' acquisition of Trevor Cahill may lead them to trade lefty Joe Saunders, tweets Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic.



MLBTR's arbitration projection pegs Saunders for a salary of $8.7MM in 2012. He's logged no fewer than 186 innings in each of the past four seasons but was worth just 6.6 WAR in that span, according to Fangraphs

mattfeet
12-09-2011, 08:23 PM
Saunders wouldn't be a BAD pickup, but he seems very Arroyo-esque.

-Matt

Patrick Bateman
12-10-2011, 01:44 AM
Saunders wouldn't be a BAD pickup, but he seems very Arroyo-esque.

-Matt

For the money, I think he would be a terrible pick-up. I don't think he's an improvement on any of our rotation members and would be the second most expensive.

Kc61
12-10-2011, 09:51 AM
We've now completed the post-World Series period; the Winter Meetings period; the "just after the Winter Meetings" period.

Reds have added no major league talent. They have lost their closer and a decent veteran catcher, thereby freeing up payroll money, but haven't added a single major league player. Not a trade, not a free agent. Not even a good major league platoon player or backup. Not even a good prospect about ready to emerge. Nothing. Nada.

We now head to the "pre-Christmas last deals before everything shuts down for the holidays" period. Usually there is some activity among teams about now, before the holiday break.

Let's see if the Reds do anything. Maybe they will, hopefully.

If not, we'll soon be in the "most of January, when some pretty good unsigned free agents are still around and an occasional trade takes place" time frame. Usually the Reds do nothing in that period also.

Reds usually get active in the "late January or early February when a few decent, low-cost backups are still available" period.

The failure to acquire talent from the outside for a period of years and, now, during this recent period of baseball trade/free agent activity is just odd IMO. No matter what your philosophy is, you have to admit that it is unusual for any major league team to be this quiet and unwilling/unable to make moves.

If the Reds wind up making a bad move, the world won't end. This isn't life or death, guys. Do something to try and improve the baseball team. There isn't a single pitcher who can be acquired for the rotation or bullpen who would add? Nobody?

_Sir_Charles_
12-10-2011, 10:01 AM
Kc...I don't disagree with you, but it's getting about to the point where you could just copy and paste these posts, don't you think?

nate
12-10-2011, 12:21 PM
Kc...I don't disagree with you, but it's getting about to the point where you could just copy and paste these posts, don't you think?

Basically, since the Reds traded for Jr., yes.

Because the Reds are essentially the most boring team to follow during the offseason. This isn't an evaluation of whether their approach is right or wrong, they're simply boring as hell.

Fortunately, living next to Anaheim Stadium, I get some vicarious Angels excitement.

I might get a Pujols jersey for Gordy the rally Shih Tzu.

RedLegSuperStar
12-10-2011, 12:36 PM
But they'll say they are interested in every player.. Just to perk interest of season ticket holders or future season ticket buyers.

Cedric
12-10-2011, 12:42 PM
Maybe Ryan Theriot wants to sign and save this offseason?

He fits what Walt likes in a player.

Kc61
12-10-2011, 03:29 PM
Kc...I don't disagree with you, but it's getting about to the point where you could just copy and paste these posts, don't you think?

Yes, I agree. But the longer it goes on, the more irritating.

Oxilon
12-10-2011, 05:11 PM
Basically, since the Reds traded for Jr., yes.

Because the Reds are essentially the most boring team to follow during the offseason. This isn't an evaluation of whether their approach is right or wrong, they're simply boring as hell.

I agree with this. Hell, when I log on now, I usually spend my time in 'The Tavern' and barely come to this side. I mean, what's there to discuss? The latest rumor I read was about Ryan Theriot. Ryan freakin' Theriot? We don't make the playoffs, are rival wins the World Series (again), and here we are doing nothing.
:bang:

TRF
12-10-2011, 07:11 PM
regarding Cahil and Wade Davis...

I like Davis better than Cahill for a couple of reasons. the AL East is a tougher division and is a hitters division as well. So he'd be moving to similar conditions park wise while still seeing tough hitting teams like STL and MIL.

He's also had some post season experience. Not a lot, but some.

Neither guy is an ace. Neither guy is a TOR and neither guy should have been a primary target.

Shields or stand pat. JMO.

RedEye
12-10-2011, 08:11 PM
Shields or stand pat. JMO.

+1. Davis would be, at best, a lateral move from what the team already has. Unless he can be acquired for nothing -- which I doubt given the TB FO's acumen -- I say move along.

dougdirt
12-10-2011, 10:24 PM
+1. Davis would be, at best, a lateral move from what the team already has. Unless he can be acquired for nothing -- which I doubt given the TB FO's acumen -- I say move along.

Agreed with both of you guys here, at least of those rumored guys we have been looking into. Obviously we all would take other pitchers if they were quality ones.

Benihana
12-10-2011, 10:33 PM
Even I'm not interested in Wade Davis. And I've been accused of low standards.

RedLegSuperStar
12-11-2011, 01:12 AM
Davis is a .500 pitcher on a really good team. He won't be any better if he is traded to an average team. It's Shields or nothing. The Reds stated that they want a top of the rotation guy and Davis is far from it. Jair, Shields, heck id like to see even Liriano

savafan
12-11-2011, 01:17 AM
I'd go for Oswalt. Honestly, I think he'd be available for $8-10M for a couple years, and that should be within the Reds budget. For his career, the guy has been lights out in this town. It would be kinda nice to have him on our side for once.

RedLegSuperStar
12-11-2011, 01:27 AM
I'd go for Oswalt. Honestly, I think he'd be available for $8-10M for a couple years, and that should be within the Reds budget. For his career, the guy has been lights out in this town. It would be kinda nice to have him on our side for once.

Roy wouldn't be a bad option.. He's a name you don't hear much. His health is a concern but your right that he has had our number for his career against the Reds. Would be nice to have him on our team.

mdccclxix
12-11-2011, 01:32 AM
Oswalt is a fine backup plan and worth an over pay if he's needed and salary dump trade involving Volquez and/or others.

MikeS21
12-11-2011, 10:31 AM
I dunno. My knock against the whole Roy Oswalt idea is that once again, the Reds bring in an All-Star ... about five seasons too late.

Just once, it would be nice to bring in these guys when they are in their prime, instead of waiting until they are trying to prove there's still gas in the can. I honestly question whether or not a tired, oft-injured, worn out Oswalt is a better option than what we have.

I don't hate the idea, but it doesn't excite me either.

Scrap Irony
12-11-2011, 10:39 AM
Oswalt would be the #2 starter in the Red rotation and possibly still a TOR arm-- though he's a gamble.

mth123
12-11-2011, 11:10 AM
Just what exactly do the Reds have that makes the standards so high that its Shields or bust for some people?

1. Cueto - A strong number 3, who had a really good season fueled by career outliers in both BABIP and HR/FB rate.

2. Leake - A solid number 4 who could be a 3 if he proves capable of going 200 innings regularly.

3. Arroyo - A normally strong number 4 who plays like more of a number 3, because he goes lots of inings.

4. Bailey - A question mark who hasn't ever put up more than a couple of months run of strong starts, has been on the DL 3 times with shoulder problems and despite his TOR potential, has to be viewed as some one that can't be penciled in for now.

5. Volquez - An injured arm that hasn't come back yet, has a history of control and command issues that revealed itself last year with him pitching from behind more than ever and his poor command resulted in lots of fat ones that went a long way. He might come back and be good, but another guy who shouldn't be penciled in.

6. Chapman - 63.33 Major league innings spread over 2 seasons with a 6.5 BB/9 rate. Was very pedestrian as a starter in AAA for 67.33 innings (FIP of 3.95) and didn't flash domnance until a move to the pen for 30 innings in AAA (FIP of 1.95). Never logged 120 innings as a starter even in Cuba and given his limited Starting/Relief splits would seem to be a guy who doesn't have the pitch assortment required to start at the major league level.

7. Wood - 100 very strong innings in 2010 (possibly too big an innings jump with his previous high in 2009 less than 170). But a fairly poor 2011 without even achieving any domnance in AAA.

I'd be fine with one of Bailey, Wood, Volquez or Chapman in the rotation with whoever steps forward grabbing the spot (I'd say Bailey, Wood, Volquez, Chapman should be the pecking order), but with Arroyo already fairly questionable, two spots devoted to those guys seems pretty iffy. It seems any reliable number 3 who has proven it over a couple of seasons would be an improvement. I'm not for acquiring Wade Davis because I don't think he is in that class, but there are guys besides Shields who would be a big boost. Wandy, Niese, Oswalt, Niemann, Floyd, Edwin Jackson, Danks and though he's probably not worth what it would take, even Gio come to mind. This team needs an addition and I want to aim high as much as anyone, but the guys on hand aren't so strong as to think the addition would have to be a number 2 to be an improvement. I think people are looking too much at best case with the guys on hand and not the likely outcome. I want a player who can have a routine season for him and still be a solid member of a rotation. That isn't any of the 4 questions vying for 2 spots at this point.

lollipopcurve
12-11-2011, 12:06 PM
Seems to me Oswalt is in a similar spot as Berkman was last winter. Risky, health-wise, but high reward too. Problem being, big market clubs have interest in Oswalt.

dougdirt
12-11-2011, 01:26 PM
6. Chapman - 63.33 Makor league innings spread over 2 seasons witha 6.5 BB/9 rate. Was very pedestrian as a starter in AAA for 67.33 innings (FIP of 3.95) and didn't flash domnance until a move to the pen for 30 innings in AAA (FIP of 1.95). Never logged 120 innings as a starter even in Cuba and given his limited Starting/Relief splits would seem to be a guy who doesn't have the pitch assortment required to start at the majkor league level.

Chapman actually topped out at 125.2 innings pitched in a season while in Cuba.

As for his splits as a starter.... take them with a grain of salt. It was his first season in the country. The control is a lot more of a concern than anything else mentioned.

nate
12-11-2011, 01:29 PM
The Reds' problem is that the SP is decidedly average to below average and the biggest lodestone on the starting staff last year was Arroyo. To me, simply replacing Arroyo 2011 with a league average SP (for example, Mike Leake, Homer Bailey, etc.) is probably a 2-3 win swing. Replace those innings with, for example, another Cueto and it's more like a 3-4 win swing. Add a Garza or Shields and I'm thinking it's like a 5-6 win swing.

Improving the SP is as much about subtraction as it is addition.

Edd Roush
12-11-2011, 05:34 PM
The Reds' problem is that the SP is decidedly average to below average and the biggest lodestone on the starting staff last year was Arroyo. To me, simply replacing Arroyo 2011 with a league average SP (for example, Mike Leake, Homer Bailey, etc.) is probably a 2-3 win swing. Replace those innings with, for example, another Cueto and it's more like a 3-4 win swing. Add a Garza or Shields and I'm thinking it's like a 5-6 win swing.

Improving the SP is as much about subtraction as it is addition.

nate, I completely agree. Replacing Arroyo with a good starter is about the best thing Walt can do this off-season. That being said, do you (or does anyone) actually believe that this will happen? Arroyo is one of the longest-tenured Reds and among the most popular. He also has an excuse for his terrible 2011 (mono) and he makes a lot of money.

Does anyone think he won't be in the rotation in 2012? I think the Reds would be better off with Arroyo in the bullpen or dumped on another team, but I don't think that will happen.

If we get another starter, I believe that starter will replace Chapman or even Bailey in the rotation.

marcshoe
12-11-2011, 06:00 PM
Arroyo will be 35 in February. This is a reality that I hope will play into his role with the team going forward. For me, the single most frustrating component of 2011 was Arroyo being run out there every five days in spite of his health and performance issues. The players can't be allowed to determine their own roles. Surely when the season was reviewed, Arroyo's role was flagged.

Having said that, I wouldn't be surprised to see the opposite happen. Dusty might plug him into the rotation no matter what. This shouldn't be allowed to happen, though.

RedlegJake
12-11-2011, 06:10 PM
Basically, since the Reds traded for Jr., yes.

Because the Reds are essentially the most boring team to follow during the offseason. This isn't an evaluation of whether their approach is right or wrong, they're simply boring as hell.

Fortunately, living next to Anaheim Stadium, I get some vicarious Angels excitement.

I might get a Pujols jersey for Gordy the rally Shih Tzu.

I'm glad someone gets some vicarious thrills from their "other" team. I had the luck to live near Kansas City, so I follow the Royals in the AL and the Reds in the NL. My wife claims I'm a sports masochist. She may have a point.

MattyHo4Life
12-11-2011, 06:11 PM
I'd go for Oswalt. Honestly, I think he'd be available for $8-10M for a couple years, and that should be within the Reds budget. For his career, the guy has been lights out in this town. It would be kinda nice to have him on our side for once.

I agree sava. Oswalt would be a great addition to the Reds. He is a veteran starter and can still pitch. Oswalt and Lidge would both be good players to target.

Kc61
12-11-2011, 06:21 PM
I agree sava. Oswalt would be a great addition to the Reds. He is a veteran starter and can still pitch. Oswalt and Lidge would both be good players to target.

Oswald would be a good gamble. The beauty of that move is that the Reds would still have their player assets to use to fill other needs.

nate
12-11-2011, 06:24 PM
nate, I completely agree. Replacing Arroyo with a good starter is about the best thing Walt can do this off-season. That being said, do you (or does anyone) actually believe that this will happen? Arroyo is one of the longest-tenured Reds and among the most popular. He also has an excuse for his terrible 2011 (mono) and he makes a lot of money.

By "Arroyo 2011," I mean Arroyo's 2011 season. He could improve on his 2011; I'm certain the Reds are thinking this.


Does anyone think he won't be in the rotation in 2012? I think the Reds would be better off with Arroyo in the bullpen or dumped on another team, but I don't think that will happen.

If we get another starter, I believe that starter will replace Chapman or even Bailey in the rotation.

That would be a poor choice as Bailey was pretty much the Reds second best SP in 2011. The new SP should replace EV, if not Arroyo.

Kc61
12-11-2011, 06:28 PM
By "Arroyo 2011," I mean Arroyo's 2011 season. He could improve on his 2011; I'm certain the Reds are thinking this.



That would be a poor choice as Bailey was pretty much the Reds second best SP in 2011. The new SP should replace EV, if not Arroyo.

Leake was undoubtedly the second best starting pitcher. Hands down.

First let's get at least one good new starter. The rotation will sort itself out. Most of the current group is replaceable.

RedLegSuperStar
12-11-2011, 06:31 PM
Oswald would be a good gamble. The beauty of that move is that the Reds would still have their player assets to use to fill other needs.

Or gain another year old at the AAA level.

mth123
12-11-2011, 06:38 PM
By "Arroyo 2011," I mean Arroyo's 2011 season. He could improve on his 2011; I'm certain the Reds are thinking this.



That would be a poor choice as Bailey was pretty much the Reds second best SP in 2011. The new SP should replace EV, if not Arroyo.

Bailey should be in the 5th spot (but probably pitches 4th to break-up Arroyo and Leake back to back), Wood should be in the pen, Chapman either back to late relief or to AAA to convert. Volquez should be dealt and a starter from the outside brought into the rotation probably after Cueto. If Bailey stays healthy, he's a good bet to rise to the top, but he's a big question at this point and should be viewed as such with Wood as his understudy. If Bailey stays in one piece, and is effective, Wood waits for a shot in long relief. Chapman gets a year in AAA unless he knocks the door down (or better IMO, goes back to the pen to team with Boxberger to be a dominant righty/lefty pair at the end of games). Arroyo should be viewed as a rotation lock who could be a huge back-end innings presence or an obstacle to be worked around, but he'll be there unless he suffers a clear "can't take the ball" injury.

RedLegSuperStar
12-11-2011, 06:45 PM
Of the remaining free agents I'd at least like to target:

SS:

Ronny Cedeno

OFer:

Josh Willingham

SP:

Roy Oswalt
Brad Penny

Relief (Potential Closer):

David Aardsma

nate
12-11-2011, 07:15 PM
Leake was undoubtedly the second best starting pitcher. Hands down.

Not really.

Bailey was almost a K/9 better with slightly worse control and similar HR tendencies. Leake benefitted from a from some BABIP "luck," (though not to the degree that Cueto did) which helped make his ERA shinier.

FIP preferred Homer, xFIP prefers Leake.

Value-wise, they provided similarly. I suspect if Homer had pitched as many innings as Leake, he would've been more valuable.

At best, it's a push between the two.

"Hands down."


First let's get at least one good new starter. The rotation will sort itself out. Most of the current group is replaceable.

Arroyo's 2011 is what needs replacing the most. That was the main point.

nate
12-11-2011, 07:21 PM
Bailey should be in the 5th spot (but probably pitches 4th to break-up Arroyo and Leake back to back),

I don't really care about what order they pitch in but Bailey was arguably the second best SP on the team in 2011.


Wood should be in the pen, Chapman either back to late relief or to AAA to convert. Volquez should be dealt and a starter from the outside brought into the rotation probably after Cueto.

Again, I don't care about the order because that only matters once. They should seek to add someone who's actually as good as Cueto looked in 2011.


If Bailey stays healthy, he's a good bet to rise to the top, but he's a big question at this point and should be viewed as such with Wood as his understudy.

Aren't they all question marks?

I think Cueto's the biggest question mark. I think it's likely next season seems "down" for him from 2011 simply through BABIP (and consequent ERA) normalization.


If Bailey stays in one piece, and is effective, Wood waits for a shot in long relief. Chapman gets a year in AAA unless he knocks the door down (or better IMO, goes back to the pen to team with Boxberger to be a dominant righty/lefty pair at the end of games). Arroyo should be viewed as a rotation lock who could be a huge back-end innings presence or an obstacle to be worked around, but he'll be there unless he suffers a clear "can't take the ball" injury.

I think it's likely that Arroyo is a "lock" to be a waste of team treasure.

Kc61
12-11-2011, 07:28 PM
Not really.

Bailey was almost a K/9 better with slightly worse control and similar HR tendencies. Leake benefitted from a from some BABIP "luck," (though not to the degree that Cueto did) which helped make his ERA shinier.

FIP preferred Homer, xFIP prefers Leake.

Value-wise, they provided similarly. I suspect if Homer had pitched as many innings as Leake, he would've been more valuable.

At best, it's a push between the two.

"Hands down."



Arroyo's 2011 is what needs replacing the most. That was the main point.

Homer didn't pitch as many innings as Leake because Homer always gets hurt. He never pitches a lot of innings.

Really, if you think Homer was as good as Leake last year, I won't argue with you. Sure.

nate
12-11-2011, 07:51 PM
Homer didn't pitch as many innings as Leake because Homer always gets hurt.

This is the sort of thing that's true until it's not.


Really, if you think Homer was as good as Leake last year, I won't argue with you. Sure.

Great! Thanks for that!

Anyhow, my point is that it's as important to replace Arroyo's dreadful 2011 as it is to add a pitcher as I outlined above.

Redhook
12-11-2011, 08:11 PM
Really, if you think Homer was as good as Leake last year, I won't argue with you. Sure.

I'm with you. Leake was clearly better last year.

Hopefully next season, Leake will pitch just as well and Bailey will reach about half his potential.

Edd Roush
12-11-2011, 08:24 PM
That would be a poor choice as Bailey was pretty much the Reds second best SP in 2011. The new SP should replace EV, if not Arroyo.

I completely agree, nate. I just see the rotation being Cueto/new addition/Leake/Bailey/Arroyo.

I would just like it to be Cueto/new addition/Leake/Bailey/Chapman.

My only argument is that Arroyo will be in the rotation due to his contract and popularity, while Chapman is a much higher upside bet.

757690
12-11-2011, 08:28 PM
When I watch Mike Leake pitch, I envision a very smart, thinking pitcher who gets smarter and smarter, and better and better with each game he pitches.

When I watch Homer Bailey pitch, I envision Bryan Price talking to him about baby rabbits playing in a field to calm him down in between innings.

Homer might have had better peripherals last season, but I'm confident Leake will be a more productive pitcher in 2012 and the following years.

corkedbat
12-11-2011, 08:30 PM
* I wouldn't mind Oswalt if it is for less than $10M - Penny $5M or less.

* I'd like to see them move Bronson for the payflex (I'd love to bring Yuke over from Boston), but won't consider it a disaster if Arroyo is still here come ST. I expect BA to bounce back with a 2009-10-ish performance after an offseason of rest.

* I also like adding Cedeno &/or Aardsema

mth123
12-11-2011, 08:42 PM
This is the sort of thing that's true until it's not.



Great! Thanks for that!

Anyhow, my point is that it's as important to replace Arroyo's dreadful 2011 as it is to add a pitcher as I outlined above.

Disagree. Pitchers who repeatedly miss time with shoulder trouble are a much bigger risk than the normal risky pitcher. Its the kind of thing that tends to repeat itself until it breaks cpompletely. I like Bailey and think he has the best skillset and development to rise to TOR status of the 7 starters vying for 5 spots, but he would not be a guy who I would count on. I'd get 4 more reliable guys and stick him in the last spot and take every start I get from him as gravy and hope he holds up and puts his arm problems behind him. I would consider him much more risky than the average picther until he puts up two full seasons of taking the ball and not missing time with shoulder issues.

As for Arroyo, I thought the Reds needed to keep him in 2011, but was against the extension. We can say what we want, but Arroyo will take the ball 32 times unless he just can't go. Performance won't be a factor. When discussing the Reds rotation, Arroyo's existence in it is something we need to accept and all the more reason that the Reds can't give two other spots to question marks.

Scrap Irony
12-11-2011, 09:04 PM
IMO, Leake and Bailey are both MOR starters.

Bailey has a chance to be better, but his injury history may prevent that. Cueto is likely a TOR guy, but not as good as he showed last season. Volquez and Chapman are extreme gambles who could be everything from TOR guys to poor fifth starters.

Arroyo is a somewhere between a MOR and BOR guy at this point in his career (though he can log a bunch of innings, thereby saving the 'pen). I'd love to move Arroyo out and another TOR guy ahead of him, but that's probably not going to happen.

I'm guessing Jocketty is looking for another possible TOR arm in the hopes of stacking the deck, so to speak, in the hopes of having as many TOR arms for 2012 as possible. If everything works out, the Reds would have four aces. More likely, two or three pan out (as TOR arms), and the others reach less than their ceilings, but show some improvement due to age. If only one (or none) reach their TOR potential, you get a season like 2011 (which is why I'd love for Jocketty to remove some of the vagaries in his starting staff by acquiring an Oswalt or Shields.

What he shouldn't do, IMO, is settle for something less then or equal to what he already has. He doesn't need, IMO, another MOR starter-- especially if he's willing to pay for it in prospects.

savafan
12-11-2011, 09:27 PM
I don't get why everyone seems to regard Arroyo as scrapheap garbage around here. In 6 seasons with the Reds, he's won 79 games with an ERA of 4.14 and a WHIP of 1.295 with an ERA+ of 105. During that same span, James Shields has won 72 games with an ERA of 3.96 and a WHIP of 1.233 with an ERA+ of 106.

WVRedsFan
12-12-2011, 12:33 AM
I don't get why everyone seems to regard Arroyo as scrapheap garbage around here. In 6 seasons with the Reds, he's won 79 games with an ERA of 4.14 and a WHIP of 1.295 with an ERA+ of 105. During that same span, James Shields has won 72 games with an ERA of 3.96 and a WHIP of 1.233 with an ERA+ of 106.Simple. He doesn't throw hard and doesn't strike out people. He's not an "ace" and doesn't miss bats. We look at "potential" (as in Volquez--he's got nasty stuff--and Chapman) instead of results. But when it comes down to money, we cannot have that ace unless we give up some prospects, and since prospects are cheap, and we like them, we don't want to give them up. It's a Catch 22 that BCast, Walt, Dusty, and RedsZone haven't figured out yet.

The Operator
12-12-2011, 01:23 AM
I don't get why everyone seems to regard Arroyo as scrapheap garbage around here. In 6 seasons with the Reds, he's won 79 games with an ERA of 4.14 and a WHIP of 1.295 with an ERA+ of 105. During that same span, James Shields has won 72 games with an ERA of 3.96 and a WHIP of 1.233 with an ERA+ of 106.To be fair, Shields also pulled that off while pitching in the AL East and having to face a DH.

Edd Roush
12-12-2011, 08:35 AM
To be fair, Shields also pulled that off while pitching in the AL East and having to face a DH.

And Shields is young and improving while Arroyo is on the downside of his career. Furthemore, Shields had a better 2011 than any year Arroyo has ever had.

mdccclxix
12-12-2011, 09:37 AM
A: For us, it was very frustrating. We tried to do a lot of different things. We still have a lot of things pending. We spent a lot of time and effort trying to get some deals done. We're looking mainly for pitching, so I think we made enough progress that we may be able to do some things in the next few weeks, next few days.

Q: Do you feel pretty good about something happening in the next few weeks?

A: There are two deals we can do right now, but it would probably take a lot of our top prospects and I'm always a little nervous about doing that. So I'll spend a little more time analyzing that.

Savor this, Reds fans. We may get something done, yet. But, if Walt's nervous, I'm a bit nervous too.

_Sir_Charles_
12-12-2011, 09:50 AM
1869, where did you get that quote from?

Nevermind, I just found it. http://www.pnj.com/article/20111212/SPORTS/112120315/Q-Reds-GM-Walt-Jocketty-excited-about-Double-prospects-Pensacola?odyssey=mod|newswell|text|FRONTPAGE|s

nate
12-12-2011, 09:57 AM
Disagree. Pitchers who repeatedly miss time with shoulder trouble are a much bigger risk than the normal risky pitcher. Its the kind of thing that tends to repeat itself until it breaks cpompletely.

Great!

It's the kind of thing that's true until it's not.


I like Bailey and think he has the best skillset and development to rise to TOR status of the 7 starters vying for 5 spots, but he would not be a guy who I would count on. I'd get 4 more reliable guys and stick him in the last spot and take every start I get from him as gravy and hope he holds up and puts his arm problems behind him. I would consider him much more risky than the average picther until he puts up two full seasons of taking the ball and not missing time with shoulder issues.

I don't know what a "TOR" is (the Norse god of pitching?) but if it's farfetched to think they won't replace Arroyo (and I don't think they will,) getting four more "reliable guys" is faster than light travel.

Not that I'm against it, but it's not going to happen.


As for Arroyo, I thought the Reds needed to keep him in 2011, but was against the extension. We can say what we want, but Arroyo will take the ball 32 times unless he just can't go. Performance won't be a factor. When discussing the Reds rotation, Arroyo's existence in it is something we need to accept and all the more reason that the Reds can't give two other spots to question marks.

They simply need to replace Arroyo's 2011 season with something better. It's likely he'll be better this year. Will he be worth his pay? Probably not over the course of his contract. Will he be average next year? I'm not sure.

nate
12-12-2011, 09:57 AM
When I watch Mike Leake pitch, I envision a very smart, thinking pitcher who gets smarter and smarter, and better and better with each game he pitches.

When I watch Homer Bailey pitch, I envision Bryan Price talking to him about baby rabbits playing in a field to calm him down in between innings.

Homer might have had better peripherals last season, but I'm confident Leake will be a more productive pitcher in 2012 and the following years.

I'm talking about their 2011 season. I think Homer performed better, not much better, but better.

I'm not talking about what one perceives for an hour or so 20-30 times during the summer.

Nor am I talking about replacing Leake or Bailey, they should stay. I'm saying, the biggest "boost" to the SP comes by replacing Arroyo's 2011 season.

nate
12-12-2011, 10:02 AM
To be fair, Shields also pulled that off while pitching in the AL East and having to face a DH.

And making a whole lot less of jack, something the Reds don't have.

_Sir_Charles_
12-12-2011, 10:05 AM
I'm saying, the biggest "boost" to the SP comes by replacing Arroyo's 2011 season.

I agree with this, but I'd also add that it'll be another big "boost" to replace the starts we got from Wood & Volquez. (granted...some of Wood's weren't THAT bad, but he had a bunch of stinkers too). But I expect to see Travis moved to the pen.

Dan
12-12-2011, 10:28 AM
Savor this, Reds fans. We may get something done, yet. But, if Walt's nervous, I'm a bit nervous too.

I'm not savoring anything. I'm done getting excited about "being in on" whomever. When a deal is actually consummated, Walt, get back to me.

RedlegJake
12-12-2011, 10:28 AM
Replacing Arroyo's 2011 season is ...by default because of his contract...going to be Arroyo's job, and it's one I think he's eminently poised to accomplish. At least I think we'll get the 2010 version of Bronson back and I'm not particularly scared off by his age - he's not the type of pitcher who should age terribly, at least for one season - and his 2011 was a stupid, imo, series of miscalculations/judgements on both his and the Reds parts. Started off weak and unhealthy, tried to pitch his way into shape, got his confidence rattled, and was never really "on" his game but I saw sparks of the "old" Bronson in a couple of his late performances. The Reds are practically held hostage to his contract so I hope that I'm right. Trying to be unemotional about it and unbiased - I still think he has a very good shot at righting his ship. Then again, I know I'm not unbiased - I've come to like Arroyo - and I'm going to be rooting for him. Not to mention, the Reds really need the 200+ innings of decent pitching the "old" Arroyo could provide. Cueto and an acquisition on top, Arroyo and Leake in the middle and the last spot and emergency roles going to the best of Bailey/Wood/Chapman/Volquez et al, and the Reds rotation could really surprise. I haven't even mentioned that I am not "done" with Volquez as so many on this board are. I think this is the season to see if he's recovered completely from TJ surgery, this is the classic year of return as far as full strength and physical health. That's why I don't want the Reds to give him away or deal him just yet - not unless he's part of a deal for a TOR guy like Shields. I don't have faith in Volquez, though, that I do in Arroyo, because he has a history of erratic behavior that blunts the edge of the medical argument for patience. Just noting that he does, indeed, have a window, there that some may be overlooking. I'd settle for one of either happening - Bailey staying healthy for a full season or Volquez returning to his 17 win season form.

mdccclxix
12-12-2011, 10:30 AM
1869, where did you get that quote from?

Nevermind, I just found it. http://www.pnj.com/article/20111212/SPORTS/112120315/Q-Reds-GM-Walt-Jocketty-excited-about-Double-prospects-Pensacola?odyssey=mod|newswell|text|FRONTPAGE|s

Thanks, I should have posted that.

If Walt is nervous about dealing top prospects, I wonder if they are of the AA, AAA variety. Why doesn't he take the Phillies approach and guide teams to the younger players in A, A+ ball? Less risk, less blow back if they work out, etc.

If Mesoraco, Grandal, Chapman, Francisco, Wood, and Frazier are all important to filling in this roster for an extended run, in Walt's view, why not steer teams to players the next rung down the minors? I guess you might have to include one of those readier players, but by no means "a lot" of them.

mdccclxix
12-12-2011, 10:37 AM
It's encouraging to me that they have 2 deals in place to choose from. It's better than nothing. I was wondering if they got anywhere with anything after the winter meetings.

RedEye
12-12-2011, 11:23 AM
It's encouraging to me that they have 2 deals in place to choose from. It's better than nothing. I was wondering if they got anywhere with anything after the winter meetings.

What a tantalizing scrap of information. To recap, based on what we eager collectors of scrap know, one would think the two deals he's got would be two names from the following list:

Shields
Jurrjens
Gonzalez
Davis
Niemann

I'm just REALLY hoping that the name on the top is the one he'll choose! Chances are, though, that he's got someone lined up we haven't even talked about.

757690
12-12-2011, 11:28 AM
What a tantalizing scrap of information. To recap, based on what we eager collectors of scrap know, one would think the two deals he's got would be two names from the following list:

Shields
Jurrjens
Gonzalez
Davis
Niemann

I'm just REALLY hoping that the name on the top is the one he'll choose! Chances are, though, that he's got someone lined up we haven't even talked about.

If I were a betting man, I'd say it's Danks and Wandy.

Those are the two that their teams have been open to trading, but asking the moon for. I doubt it's any of the Rays pitchers.

savafan
12-12-2011, 01:53 PM
And Shields is young and improving while Arroyo is on the downside of his career. Furthemore, Shields had a better 2011 than any year Arroyo has ever had.

Are we considering 30 to be young?

Edd Roush
12-12-2011, 02:08 PM
Are we considering 30 to be young?

Wow, to be completely honest, I assumed he was younger than that. Shields still is five years younger than Arroyo and will be in his prime for the three years the Reds will control him.

Benihana
12-12-2011, 03:21 PM
If I were a betting man, I'd say it's Danks and Wandy.

Those are the two that their teams have been open to trading, but asking the moon for. I doubt it's any of the Rays pitchers.

I think (and fear) that the deals on the table are for Danks and Jurrjens. I would not give up Alonso and/or a bevy of top prospects for either.

Certainly not for Wandy, Davis, or Niemann.

I would for Shields, Gonzalez, Garza, and Pineda though.

bucksfan2
12-12-2011, 03:27 PM
I think (and fear) that the deals on the table are for Danks and Jurrjens. I would not give up Alonso and/or a bevy of top prospects for either.

Certainly not for Wandy, Davis, or Niemann.

I would for Shields, Gonzalez, Garza, and Pineda though.

Why all the love for Garza? Guy is a head case when on the mound. Is currently with his 3rd team in 6 years. IMO he is the kind of guy you stay away from.

Benihana
12-12-2011, 03:48 PM
Why all the love for Garza? Guy is a head case when on the mound. Is currently with his 3rd team in 6 years. IMO he is the kind of guy you stay away from.

Because he would instantly become the best/second best pitcher on the Reds and he's under team control for the next couple years.

bucksfan2
12-12-2011, 03:50 PM
Because he would instantly become the best/second best pitcher on the Reds and he's under team control for the next couple years.

If your going to take a risk and trade young talent I would prefer a much less volatile pitcher than Garza.

Benihana
12-12-2011, 03:55 PM
If your going to take a risk and trade young talent I would prefer a much less volatile pitcher than Garza.

Volatile?

ERA under 4 for 5 years straight (including 3 in the AL East)
WHIP under 1.26 for the last 4 years

Outrageously good numbers last year (his first year in the NL Central, pitching in Wrigley Field). I can't sign up fast enough.

Patrick Bateman
12-12-2011, 04:24 PM
FYI, I would take Garza in a second.

dougdirt
12-12-2011, 04:57 PM
Thanks, I should have posted that.

If Walt is nervous about dealing top prospects, I wonder if they are of the AA, AAA variety. Why doesn't he take the Phillies approach and guide teams to the younger players in A, A+ ball? Less risk, less blow back if they work out, etc.

If Mesoraco, Grandal, Chapman, Francisco, Wood, and Frazier are all important to filling in this roster for an extended run, in Walt's view, why not steer teams to players the next rung down the minors? I guess you might have to include one of those readier players, but by no means "a lot" of them.

I imagine it is because unlike the Phillies, most of our prime prospects are not in A/A+. And I doubt for a second that Francisco, Wood or Frazier are the guys holding back any kind of trade for a legit Major League player. The Reds can use each of them to help on our MLB roster. But they also can likely replace each of them.

RedLegSuperStar
12-12-2011, 05:28 PM
I asked Brad Penny via Twitter today and asked him if he'd accept a deal deal with Cincinnati if offered and he said it just depends.

TRF
12-12-2011, 05:38 PM
Are we considering 30 to be young?

i do.

But then I'm 43 so...

camisadelgolf
12-12-2011, 05:44 PM
My definition of old has always been being more than twice as old as me. I'm 28 years old and believe that's unflawed.

The Operator
12-12-2011, 06:00 PM
If your going to take a risk and trade young talent I would prefer a much less volatile pitcher than Garza.
He may be a bit of a hot head, but he's not a guy who's always one miscue away from a total meltdown like Big Z.

And his numbers last year were quite good, especially pitching in Wrigley Field. He also put up quite a few impressive years pitching in the AL East, which is no easy task.

mth123
12-12-2011, 07:51 PM
Great!

It's the kind of thing that's true until it's not.



I don't know what a "TOR" is (the Norse god of pitching?) but if it's farfetched to think they won't replace Arroyo (and I don't think they will,) getting four more "reliable guys" is faster than light travel. Not that I'm against it, but it's not going to happen.



They simply need to replace Arroyo's 2011 season with something better. It's likely he'll be better this year. Will he be worth his pay? Probably not over the course of his contract. Will he be average next year? I'm not sure.

It means adding one starting pitcher. Leake and Cueto are already more reliable than Bailey. Arroyo is locked in. Add one solid reliable guy and you just might have a rotation. The point is that the reliable guy is not Wood, Chapman or Volquez. It needs to be an acquisition but it doesn't have to be Shields. Wandy, Danks, Niese and many others would fill the bill.

nate
12-12-2011, 09:11 PM
It means adding one starting pitcher. Leake and Cueto are already more reliable than Bailey. Arroyo is locked in. Add one solid reliable guy and you just might have a rotation. The point is that the reliable guy is not Wood, Chapman or Volquez. It needs to be an acquisition but it doesn't have to be Shields. Wandy, Danks, Niese and many others would fill the bill.

I think the reliability of the entire starting staff is debatable.

RedEye
12-12-2011, 09:26 PM
I think the reliability of the entire starting staff is debatable.

+1. That whole "pitching depth" sound bite during the off season last year was total smoke and mirrors.

nate
12-12-2011, 09:48 PM
I don't get why everyone seems to regard Arroyo as scrapheap garbage around here. In 6 seasons with the Reds, he's won 79 games with an ERA of 4.14 and a WHIP of 1.295 with an ERA+ of 105. During that same span, James Shields has won 72 games with an ERA of 3.96 and a WHIP of 1.233 with an ERA+ of 106.

Let's look at some other stats:

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/978_P_season_full_1_20110928.png

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/978_P_season_full_4_20110928.png

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/978_P_season_full_0_20110928.png

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/978_P_season_full_7_20110928.png

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/978_P_season_full_9_20110928.png

I wouldn't say "scrapheap garbage" but I wouldn't say worth $11MM/year either.

jojo
12-12-2011, 09:54 PM
The Pirates are quietly having a pretty good offseason. The Reds are pretty much just having a quiet off season.

savafan
12-12-2011, 10:11 PM
I wouldn't say "scrapheap garbage" but I wouldn't say worth $11MM/year either.

Normally I would agree with you, but at the rate the market keeps growing, he's almost a bargain at $11M a year these days.

nate
12-12-2011, 10:35 PM
Normally I would agree with you, but at the rate the market keeps growing, he's almost a bargain at $11M a year these days.

It's not a bargain to pay that kind of jack for value below what a replacement level player would produce.

savafan
12-12-2011, 10:40 PM
It's not a bargain to pay that kind of jack for value below what a replacement level player would produce.

A replacement level player with the same amount of service time, or a replacement level player in their pre-arbitration years? You're not going to get both for the same salary, no matter how much you would like to.

nate
12-12-2011, 10:55 PM
A replacement level player with the same amount of service time, or a replacement level player in their pre-arbitration years? You're not going to get both for the same salary, no matter how much you would like to.

The production, defined as being replacement level, is the same for both. So ideally, one pays as little as possible for it.

757690
12-12-2011, 11:05 PM
Let's look at some other stats:

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/978_P_season_full_1_20110928.png

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/978_P_season_full_4_20110928.png

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/978_P_season_full_0_20110928.png

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/978_P_season_full_7_20110928.png

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/978_P_season_full_9_20110928.png

I wouldn't say "scrapheap garbage" but I wouldn't say worth $11MM/year either.

1. He's getting $6.5M toward payflex, which is what counts.
2. He had one crappy year, due to an injury/illness.
3. His average worth outside of that year, even according to peripherals only, has been a league average starting pitcher, around $15M a season.

dunner13
12-13-2011, 08:47 AM
Ken Rosenthal reported that the Tigers might be willing to move Jacob Turner, especially if they trade for Gio Gonzalez. I wonder what kind of a package it would take to get him, I realize hes young and we are looking for someone more proven but to get a top pitching prospect who will be very cheap for a few more years could be a great move. The other team that might be willing to trade a pitcher for a firstbaseman that we really havent talked about is the Rangers. Looks like there trying to add another SP and they already have a full rotation so you have to think they might be willing to trade someone. I think Colby Lewis could be a good pickup for us and it seems like they would be pretty interested in Alonso.

nate
12-13-2011, 09:53 AM
1. He's getting $6.5M toward payflex, which is what counts.
2. He had one crappy year, due to an injury/illness.
3. His average worth outside of that year, even according to peripherals only, has been a league average starting pitcher, around $15M a season.

1. How?

2. He's been declining for the past three years. I'd go so far as to say he's actually been in decline since his first season with the Reds.

3. 2 WAR in FA (an average SP) is worth $10MM a season, not $15MM.

We can't subtract years or parts of seasons we don't like. It all counts.

In any event, it's extremely unlikely that Arroyo will provide value equal or greater than his contract. He'd have to basically repeat his 2006-2007 seasons to do so.

757690
12-13-2011, 10:14 AM
1. How?

2. He's been declining for the past three years. I'd go so far as to say he's actually been in decline since his first season with the Reds.

3. 2 WAR in FA (an average SP) is worth $10MM a season, not $15MM.

We can't subtract years or parts of seasons we don't like. It all counts.

In any event, it's extremely unlikely that Arroyo will provide value equal or greater than his contract. He'd have to basically repeat his 2006-2007 seasons to do so.

1. Deferred money
2. His first season was an anomaly, so yeah I agree, but he's been rather steady since then, until last season.
3. Then he's been above average. He's averaged just a hair under 3 WAR a season since he became a full time starter.

If he bounces back and has an average year for himself in 2012, he would come close to earning his extension based only on his peripherals. Not sure how likely that is, but that's what it would take.

jojo
12-13-2011, 12:33 PM
My take on Arroyo?

His ERA has been driven by his BABIP both of which have dramatically improved with the significant improvement of the defense behind him. In other words, significant interaction between his performance and the Reds defense is a large reason why he's outperformed his peripherals so dramatically (i.e. his ERA has been better than his FIP would predict) over the last several seasons. Or to say it another way, put him in front of the Reds defense of 2006-2008 and his ERA would be much closer to his FIP.

Why do I argue this?

Here is a breakdown of Arroyo by year showing his ERA, FIP and BABIP. When the FIP-ERA is positive, it means his ERA was lower than his peripherals would predict (i.e. his ERA outperformed his FIP):



Arroyo
Season ERA FIP FIP-ERA BABIP
2006 3.29 4.15 0.86 0.271
2007 4.23 4.57 0.34 0.309
2008 4.77 4.5 -0.27 0.314
2009 3.84 4.78 0.94 0.265
2010 3.88 4.61 0.73 0.239
2011 5.07 5.71 0.64 0.278


It's important to note that Arroyo's ERA has outperformed his FIP in 5 of the 6 seasons he's been a Red. But many would agree his 2006 ERA was an anomaly that was unsustainble. Certainly the magnitude of difference between his FIP and ERA spanning the 2009-2011 seasons would not have been expected based upon his prior performance or legitimately ascribed to a skillset. Realizing some may argue this point, below follow a few tables that hopefully demonstrate why one might make the above statement.

Here's the same breakdown for the Reds' pitching staff over the same years:



Reds
Season ERA FIP FIP-ERA BABIP
2006 4.51 4.63 0.12 0.31
2007 4.94 4.55 -0.39 0.31
2008 4.55 4.53 -0.02 0.312
2009 4.18 4.66 0.48 0.283
2010 4.01 4.18 0.17 0.288
2011 4.16 4.45 0.29 0.282


Here are the BABIP for the Reds staff and Arroyo for the two periods of his tenure as a Red (2006-2008 where the Reds had one of the worst defenses in the league and 2009-2011 where the Reds had one of the best defenses in the league):


BABIP by defensive performance
Reds Arroyo
2006-08 0.311 0.298
2009-11 0.284 0.261
Decrease -0.026 -0.037


The data above indicates that for the period of 2009-2011 when Arroyo's ERA has significantly outperformed his FIP despite declining peripherals, the Red's staff as a whole has consistently outtperformed it's FIP as well. The third table suggests the reason why-the dramatically improved defense has driven a large part of this outcome. So he did not outperform his FIP independent of significant influence by his defense.

So in other words, if the Reds were to pay market value for Arroyo's production over the last several seasons, they'd essentially be "paying double" for the cost associated with building their defense. This also can explain why Arroyo does not have a great deal of trade value despite his ERA's.

All of that said, a look at Arroyo as a Reds does seem to suggest he has outperformed his peripherals to a greater degree than can solely be explained by the impact of the defense behind him. So there may be room to poke at something interesting here, albeit a minor effect. However, when looking at his time as a Pirate and BoSock, he displayed no discernible ability to consistently outperform his peripherals.

The ultimate takehome? If they can get a legit arm for their rotation, they should. At least Arroyo should not be a rationale for preventing such a trade.

Tom Servo
12-13-2011, 05:45 PM
Jimmy Rollins' agent, Dan Lozano, has told the Phillies that he is having dialogue with a second unidentified team, according to Jayson Stark of ESPN.com.


hmmm

757690
12-13-2011, 09:02 PM
My take on Arroyo?

His ERA has been driven by his BABIP both of which have dramatically improved with the significant improvement of the defense behind him. In other words, significant interaction between his performance and the Reds defense is a large reason why he's outperformed his peripherals so dramatically (i.e. his ERA has been better than his FIP would predict) over the last several seasons. Or to say it another way, put him in front of the Reds defense of 2006-2008 and his ERA would be much closer to his FIP.

Why do I argue this?

Here is a breakdown of Arroyo by year showing his ERA, FIP and BABIP. When the FIP-ERA is positive, it means his ERA was lower than his peripherals would predict (i.e. his ERA outperformed his FIP):



Arroyo
Season ERA FIP FIP-ERA BABIP
2006 3.29 4.15 0.86 0.271
2007 4.23 4.57 0.34 0.309
2008 4.77 4.5 -0.27 0.314
2009 3.84 4.78 0.94 0.265
2010 3.88 4.61 0.73 0.239
2011 5.07 5.71 0.64 0.278


It's important to note that Arroyo's ERA has outperformed his FIP in 5 of the 6 seasons he's been a Red. But many would agree his 2006 ERA was an anomaly that was unsustainble. Certainly the magnitude of difference between his FIP and ERA spanning the 2009-2011 seasons would not have been expected based upon his prior performance or legitimately ascribed to a skillset. Realizing some may argue this point, below follow a few tables that hopefully demonstrate why one might make the above statement.

Here's the same breakdown for the Reds' pitching staff over the same years:



Reds
Season ERA FIP FIP-ERA BABIP
2006 4.51 4.63 0.12 0.31
2007 4.94 4.55 -0.39 0.31
2008 4.55 4.53 -0.02 0.312
2009 4.18 4.66 0.48 0.283
2010 4.01 4.18 0.17 0.288
2011 4.16 4.45 0.29 0.282


Here are the BABIP for the Reds staff and Arroyo for the two periods of his tenure as a Red (2006-2008 where the Reds had one of the worst defenses in the league and 2009-2011 where the Reds had one of the best defenses in the league):


BABIP by defensive performance
Reds Arroyo
2006-08 0.311 0.298
2009-11 0.284 0.261
Decrease -0.026 -0.037


The data above indicates that for the period of 2009-2011 when Arroyo's ERA has significantly outperformed his FIP despite declining peripherals, the Red's staff as a whole has consistently outtperformed it's FIP as well. The third table suggests the reason why-the dramatically improved defense has driven a large part of this outcome. So he did not outperform his FIP independent of significant influence by his defense.

So in other words, if the Reds were to pay market value for Arroyo's production over the last several seasons, they'd essentially be "paying double" for the cost associated with building their defense. This also can explain why Arroyo does not have a great deal of trade value despite his ERA's.

All of that said, a look at Arroyo as a Reds does seem to suggest he has outperformed his peripherals to a greater degree than can solely be explained by the impact of the defense behind him. So there may be room to poke at something interesting here, albeit a minor effect. However, when looking at his time as a Pirate and BoSock, he displayed no discernible ability to consistently outperform his peripherals.

The ultimate takehome? If they can get a legit arm for their rotation, they should. At least Arroyo should not be a rationale for preventing such a trade.

Interesting analysis, and it seems to have some validity.

I'm swamped at work right now, otherwise I would provide the answer to this question myself, but I wonder how many pitchers are out there, that are these "league average" starters, that could be had for close to half the salary that Arroyo earned (deferred money included) and who provide the similar odds of 30+ games started and 200+ IP over those same years from 2009-now, or even for 2011-2, the length of his extension.

My guess is zero. But I would love to see the actual results.

Mario-Rijo
12-13-2011, 09:40 PM
Jimmy Rollins' agent, Dan Lozano, has told the Phillies that he is having dialogue with a second unidentified team, according to Jayson Stark of ESPN.com.


hmmm

Doubt it, sounds like Lozano is reaching for leverage. Rollins doesn't seem to want to go anywhere but Philly.

Orenda
12-13-2011, 09:47 PM
In terms of Arroyo, ya'll can talk numbers until you're blue in the face, but from what i witnessed he seemed to be mentally defeated by just about every lefty that stepped in the box. was this a result of him knowing the numbers? i dunno, hopefully he is healthy and can rebound, i wouldnt project worse for anyhow.

another thing, he really seemed to go away from the changeup that broke down and away from lefties last year. does pitch fx data bare this out when comparing years past? it was an effective pitch for him in the past. he's never going to be tough on lefties, but he's been much better at limiting their damage in the past

RedsManRick
12-13-2011, 10:16 PM
Jimmy Rollins' agent, Dan Lozano, has told the Phillies that he is having dialogue with a second unidentified team, according to Jayson Stark of ESPN.com.


hmmm

Tigers?

nate
12-13-2011, 11:16 PM
1. Deferred money

I can't see how it's a "plus" that we get to pay for last season in the future.


2. His first season was an anomaly, so yeah I agree, but he's been rather steady since then, until last season.

Steadily declining, yes.


3. Then he's been above average. He's averaged just a hair under 3 WAR a season since he became a full time starter.

He's racked up 11.2 WAR in his six seasons with the Reds. That's 1.87 WAR/season. That's slightly below average.


If he bounces back and has an average year for himself in 2012, he would come close to earning his extension based only on his peripherals. Not sure how likely that is, but that's what it would take.

I think he has to be worth around 3.5-4 WAR/season for the next two years to be worth his contract. I don't think that's likely to happen.

Patrick Bateman
12-13-2011, 11:44 PM
I can't see how it's a "plus" that we get to pay for last season in the future.



The time value of money actually dramatically decreased the present day value of the contract he signed. If he remained being steady, the contract did have a chance to provide some surplus value.

I wouldn't have done it because I didn't like his odds of remaining league average, as he's always walked a fine line, and has inched closer to the dark side seemingly every season.

REDREAD
12-13-2011, 11:52 PM
Jimmy Rollins' agent, Dan Lozano, has told the Phillies that he is having dialogue with a second unidentified team, according to Jayson Stark of ESPN.com.


hmmm


Oh, wouldn't that be a nice Xmas present.. :)
Nice to fantasize..

Patrick Bateman
12-14-2011, 12:21 AM
Oh, wouldn't that be a nice Xmas present.. :)
Nice to fantasize..

I don't know about you, but I sure don't fantisize about the Reds signing a 33 year old, declining production SS, for a 4+ year deal, when a team that has been throwing around money like there is no end in sight is struggling to bite the bullet on retaining him.

For the salaries required, Rollins, IMO, is likely to go on the list of reasons of why you don't allocate huge resources to the free agent market, especially to guys who limp through the end of their prime seasons.

It would be great if you could get him for 2 years at $10M a year, but that's just likley not realistic in a market where a similarly declining Rafeal Furcal almost gets that.

camisadelgolf
12-14-2011, 06:55 AM
He's racked up 11.2 WAR in his six seasons with the Reds. That's 1.87 WAR/season. That's slightly below average.
How are you defining average?

Vottomatic
12-14-2011, 08:27 AM
In terms of Arroyo, ya'll can talk numbers until you're blue in the face, but from what i witnessed he seemed to be mentally defeated by just about every lefty that stepped in the box. was this a result of him knowing the numbers? i dunno, hopefully he is healthy and can rebound, i wouldnt project worse for anyhow.

another thing, he really seemed to go away from the changeup that broke down and away from lefties last year. does pitch fx data bare this out when comparing years past? it was an effective pitch for him in the past. he's never going to be tough on lefties, but he's been much better at limiting their damage in the past

Agreed. Arroyo threw alot more fastballs last year, which was odd considering his decline in velocity.

I remember the Cardinal players calling him a junkballer in 2010. If he would stick to the junk, and only use the fastball out of the strikezone as a setup pitch, I think he will regain success. Hitters hate facing junkballers with 3 or 4 junk pitches.

IslandRed
12-14-2011, 09:30 AM
I think it's safe to say the mono thing is a huge variable; besides the gopheritis and the stat evidence, his stuff just didn't look the same. Decreasing velocity as Vottomatic said, and his breaking stuff only occasionally had its previous bite. He might be terrible forevermore, or he might go right back to being the same pitcher he was before 2011. It's just hard to predict.

I think it's probably safe to say he will get the chance to show 2011 was an anomaly, but in case it wasn't, the Reds need to have a viable Plan B.

RedLegSuperStar
12-14-2011, 10:02 AM
Oh, wouldn't that be a nice Xmas present.. :)
Nice to fantasize..

Hanley would be a nice Christmas present.. Rollins is like a fruit cake from you Aunt Edna.. You accept it but you set it aside and move on.

dunner13
12-14-2011, 10:07 AM
Darvish is the christmas present I want. Gives a #1 or #2 Starter and we don't have to give up any of our top prospects. We just need Bob to open up his wallet a little bit to make it happen.

marcshoe
12-14-2011, 10:37 AM
Hanley would be a nice Christmas present.. Rollins is like a fruit cake from you Aunt Edna.. You accept it but you set it aside and move on.

I like fruitcake, but this one's getting a bit stale and wants a five-year contract. ;)

Benihana
12-14-2011, 10:40 AM
Hanley would be a nice Christmas present.. Rollins is like a fruit cake from you Aunt Edna.. You accept it but you set it aside and move on.
Agree. I'd rather spend on Beltran than Rollins as a FA.

The Operator
12-14-2011, 10:52 AM
Darvish is the christmas present I want. Gives a #1 or #2 Starter and we don't have to give up any of our top prospects. We just need Bob to open up his wallet a little bit to make it happen.A little bit? The posting fee alone is more than The Reds could afford, much less actually signing him.

dunner13
12-14-2011, 11:02 AM
A little bit? The posting fee alone is more than The Reds could afford, much less actually signing him.

There predicting that Darvish might get what Dice K got, which was a posting fee of 51.1M and a 6 yr 52M contract. Well 52 over 6yrs is only 8.6M a year, we can afford that. We paid Coco 12 last year. The problem would be the huge posting fee, thats where we need Walt to open up the wallet.

REDREAD
12-14-2011, 11:04 AM
It would be great if you could get him [Rollins] for 2 years at $10M a year, but that's just likley not realistic in a market where a similarly declining Rafeal Furcal almost gets that.

I agree with all your points above. I guess I was just saying it was a hot stove fantasy to not worry about money and get Rollins for 2 years.
Didn't mean for the post to be taken seriously. I agree, no chance of us getting Rollins.

The Operator
12-14-2011, 11:08 AM
There predicting that Darvish might get what Dice K got, which was a posting fee of 51.1M and a 6 yr 52M contract. Well 52 over 6yrs is only 8.6M a year, we can afford that. We paid Coco 12 last year. The problem would be the huge posting fee, thats where we need Walt to open up the wallet.
I don't see The Reds being able to afford a posting fee of ~50M in addition to 52M over the life of the contract. That pretty much doubles the yearly value. It's just not worth it in my opinion - if The Reds have the money to put up that kind of a posting fee, they could spend it a lot more wisely and with a lot less risk.

RedLegSuperStar
12-14-2011, 11:25 AM
Darvish is the christmas present I want. Gives a #1 or #2 Starter and we don't have to give up any of our top prospects. We just need Bob to open up his wallet a little bit to make it happen.

60 Million on someone who may or may not pan out is a risk.. Chapman was a risk that hasn't quite panned out fully.. I'd be a bit weary of Darvish

Benihana
12-14-2011, 12:49 PM
60 Million on someone who may or may not pan out is a risk.. Chapman was a risk that hasn't quite panned out fully.. I'd be a bit weary of Darvish

Yes and ditto for Cespedes, the OF.

Spend money on a SP like Shields or Garza and a LF like Beltran. Save the rest of the money for signing Votto, and/or signing Leake to a Matt Moore-like deal. End of story.

Edd Roush
12-14-2011, 01:59 PM
Yes and ditto for Cespedes, the OF.

Spend money on a SP like Shields or Garza and a LF like Beltran. Save the rest of the money for signing Votto, and/or signing Leake to a Matt Moore-like deal. End of story.

Beni, do you want to take over in the front office? I completely agree with your plan and if you can't land Shields or Garza, I would make a major push for Niese if he's just going to cost a Wood or Volquez and a prospect.

jojo
12-14-2011, 02:01 PM
Lowrie would have been a nice addition though not earth shattering.

757690
12-14-2011, 02:18 PM
Lowrie would have been a nice addition though not earth shattering.

I would have been happy with a Masset-Lowrie swap, although the Reds need relievers more than backup SS's right now.

Vottomatic
12-14-2011, 02:19 PM
All the Reds really need to do is improve the pitching overall. They have a solid offense.

If they trade for a couple of stud or decent pitchers, that's 2 less starters they need, other than for insurance.

Beefing up the bullpen wouldn't hurt either.

A Heisey/Sappelt platoon in LF doesn't bother me at all. The only problem in LF is if one of them gets dealt. That's why I think the Reds need to secure the pitchers they want, to determine who they had to deal, which then determines what position spots they need to fill. The longer they wait to deal for the pitchers, the less chance they'll have of filling the spots they traded away.

Dan
12-14-2011, 02:28 PM
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/12/reds-info-pitching-saunders-theriot-cuddyer.html?utm_medium=facebook&utm_source=twitterfeed


Jocketty says his pursuit of starting pitching has been "very frustrating" and he's not close on anything.

The Reds have made some progress on an extension for Brandon Phillips.

Jocketty has contacted the agents for Joe Saunders and Ryan Theriot, and the Reds also have some interest in Michael Cuddyer depending on his asking price. They won't be submitting a bid on Yu Darvish

Patrick Bateman
12-14-2011, 02:30 PM
Joe Saunders would be about the last guy I would want.

Dan
12-14-2011, 02:35 PM
Joe Saunders would be about the last guy I would want.

As a candidate for the major league rotation? I'm with you. As a guy to stash at AAA in case of an emergency, yeah, I can see that. But I don't see Saunders taking that role.