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The Operator
12-14-2011, 03:37 PM
Jocketty says his pursuit of starting pitching has been "very frustrating" and he's not close on anything.If I didn't know any better I'd say he's laying the groundwork for the inevitable: doing nothing.

This franchise really knows how to keep a fanbase engaged and enthusiastic.

jojo
12-14-2011, 04:18 PM
Here are the tires I think Walk ought to kick... The unifying criteria is being around the plate with nuetral to GB tendencies. If Arroyo can leverage the Reds defense by inducing contact to look like a quality starter, the Reds should be able to find a market ineffciency in less dazzling K rates but above average command.

Top target: Kuroda... He clearly would be an ideal. Then look at Maholm...both are free agents that only require money and likely shorter term commitments. Also try to talk Valquez out of retirement for the same reasons.

Next target: Pavano or Garza. Pavano would likely be cheapest but both would require giving up talent in trade but are likely the least painful arms to acquire via that route as opposed to a Shields/ Pineda top arm. Garza actually misses bats. Fister would've been an ideal addition but that ship sailed last season.

Anyway, i'm sure there are guys that aren't popping into the top of my head that would represent targets in the same genre.... But again, basically poke at a potential market inefficiency to get guys who can leverage the defense but wont require a long term commitment.

RANDY IN INDY
12-14-2011, 04:23 PM
If I didn't know any better I'd say he's laying the groundwork for the inevitable: doing nothing.

This franchise really knows how to keep a fanbase engaged and enthusiastic.

It's beginning to sound that way.

mace
12-14-2011, 04:41 PM
Without reading through the whole thread . . . I haven't seen Cuddyer discussed much, but he's versatile, productive, and a guy whom teammates and team officials rave about. I mean, big-time. As an outfielder, he'd be a bit redundant in Cincinnati (barring a trade), but would also be useful in spelling Votto occasionally and possibly helping out at 3B. Getting a little old. Might be too expensive. So he's no slam-dunk, by any stretch. But I can see him as the type that Jocketty would value, and who, indeed, could be a major asset.

WVPacman
12-14-2011, 04:41 PM
MissEnquirer twitter =Jocketty said the #Reds have contacted agents for left-hander Joe Saunders and infielder Ryan Theriot.

RedLegSuperStar
12-14-2011, 04:44 PM
Walt; Its frustrating as a fan listening to you come up with excuses. You have the deepest richest pool of prospects and major league talent yet are such a tight ass that you can't pull the trigger. Huston Street for Volquez and you couldn't get that done? It's not Josh Hamilton but it is acquiring an All Star caliber player who you can sell to your fan base. Forget about Michael Cuddyer, because he isn't worth 3 years 21 million that Willingham got let alone 3 years 30 million that he is asking for. Quit throwing names out there of who you have interest in and focus on improving this ball club. Because frankly you've sat on your hands since the Scott Rolen deal.

jojo
12-14-2011, 06:02 PM
If I were Jack Z, GM of the Ms, i'd be all over Yonder. He could compete/rotate with Smoak for first or become their cheaply controlled DH (the best kind). The Ms aren't likely to contend this year especially given what the Angels have done this off season. The Ms have three highly touted arms nearing readiness for a debut in their rotation. Pineda, while exciting, is also a great chip.

I'd kick the tires on a Pineda for Alonso+ type of trade that could infuse their already solid system with more near ready talent in order to maximize the chances of hitting on some full time players. It works for the Reds because they infuse their rotation with electric talent while likely only trading players that are blocked/surplus.

Benihana
12-14-2011, 06:21 PM
If I were Jack Z, GM of the Ms, i'd be all over Yonder. He could compete/rotate with Smoak for first or become their cheaply controlled DH (the best kind). The Ms aren't likely to contend this year especially given what the Angels have done this off season. The Ms have three highly touted arms nearing readiness for a debut in their rotation. Pineda, while exciting, is also a great chip.

I'd kick the tires on a Pineda for Alonso+ type of trade that could infuse their already solid system with more near ready talent in order to maximize the chances of hitting on some full time players. It works for the Reds because they infuse their rotation with electric talent while likely only trading players that are blocked/surplus.

I've been advocating an Alonso-for-Pineda swap* for months now. As an M's fan, it's good to have you on board.

The Reds could then use their payflex to sign Carlos Beltran to a 2 year deal.

2B Phillips
CF Stubbs/Heisey
1B Votto
LF Beltran
RF Bruce
C Mesoraco
3B Rolen
SS Cozart

SP Pineda
SP Cueto
SP Leake
SP Bailey
SP Arroyo

That might give the Reds the best defensive team ever assembled, and that team should win the division for the next two years.


* I'd happily throw in a Dave Sappelt/Ryan LaMarre type, plus a pitching prospect not named Corcino or Stephenson.

jojo
12-14-2011, 06:44 PM
I've been advocating an Alonso-for-Pineda swap* for months now. As an M's fan, it's good to have you on board.

The Reds could then use their payflex to sign Carlos Beltran to a 2 year deal.

2B Phillips
CF Stubbs/Heisey
1B Votto
LF Beltran
RF Bruce
C Mesoraco
3B Rolen
SS Cozart

SP Pineda
SP Cueto
SP Leake
SP Bailey
SP Arroyo

That might give the Reds the best defensive team ever assembled, and that team should win the division for the next two years.


* I'd happily throw in a Dave Sappelt/Ryan LaMarre type, plus a pitching prospect not named Corcino or Stephenson.

It would probably take more than Alonso/LaMarre*.

Strikes Out Looking
12-14-2011, 07:09 PM
Reading between the lines, it seems to me that the teams with starting pitchers to deal value them very highly and those with position players to deal (like the Reds) value their players/prospects (Alonso, Grandal) as high -- meaning no one is budging and making the deals happen.

dougdirt
12-14-2011, 07:24 PM
I'd kick the tires on a Pineda for Alonso+ type of trade that could infuse their already solid system with more near ready talent in order to maximize the chances of hitting on some full time players. It works for the Reds because they infuse their rotation with electric talent while likely only trading players that are blocked/surplus.

Would an Alonso, Corcino and another top end type of prospect get us moving toward the right direction?

dougdirt
12-14-2011, 07:28 PM
Reading between the lines, it seems to me that the teams with starting pitchers to deal value them very highly and those with position players to deal (like the Reds) value their players/prospects (Alonso, Grandal) as high -- meaning no one is budging and making the deals happen.

Agreed. Beane reportedly asking the Marlins for Mike Stanton for Gio Gonzalez tells you how wild things might actually be. If that is true, Gio is staying in Oakland until his contract runs out because no one is going to give up that amount of talent for him. I don't think the Marlins would trade Stanton straight up for Joey Votto, much less a guy who is merely solid like Gio Gonzalez.

jojo
12-14-2011, 07:37 PM
Would an Alonso, Corcino and another top end type of prospect get us moving toward the right direction?

JZ has a thing for high ceiling arms but considering answers from within, their system is weakest up the middle.

Kc61
12-14-2011, 07:51 PM
If Walt thinks the fans are sympathetic because of his "frustration" he is mistaken.

As I've said before, I don't want to hear about his frustration.

If he can't trade, then figure out a way to sign a free agent.

Or get creative. Include Phillips in a deal and revamp the team a bit to get more pitching. Make several deals for pitchers and position players that change the mix and benefit the team.

But mostly, stop venting frustration. I really don't want to hear it. It's not helping me get over the stagnation.

dougdirt
12-14-2011, 07:59 PM
If Walt thinks the fans are sympathetic because of his "frustration" he is mistaken.

As I've said before, I don't want to hear about his frustration.

If he can't trade, then figure out a way to sign a free agent.

Or get creative. Include Phillips in a deal and revamp the team a bit to get more pitching. Make several deals for pitchers and position players that change the mix and benefit the team.

But mostly, stop venting frustration. I really don't want to hear it. It's not helping me get over the stagnation.

I don't believe for a second that Bob would sign off on a trade that would move a guy like Phillips, Bruce, Votto or Cueto. Not for a second. Even if the return was quite good.

klw
12-14-2011, 08:07 PM
Agreed. Beane reportedly asking the Marlins for Mike Stanton for Gio Gonzalez tells you how wild things might actually be. If that is true, Gio is staying in Oakland until his contract runs out because no one is going to give up that amount of talent for him. I don't think the Marlins would trade Stanton straight up for Joey Votto, much less a guy who is merely solid like Gio Gonzalez.

I was trying to remember who has been traded for Gonzalez in the past. My memory was way off.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gonzagi01.shtml

November 25, 2005: The Chicago White Sox sent a player to be named later, Daniel Haigwood (minors) and Aaron Rowand to the Philadelphia Phillies for Jim Thome and cash. (December 8, 2005: the Chicago White Sox sent Gio Gonzalez to the Philadelphia Phillies to complete an earlier deal made on November 25, 2005. )

December 6, 2006: Traded by the Philadelphia Phillies with Gavin Floyd to the Chicago White Sox for Freddy Garcia.

January 3, 2008: Traded by the Chicago White Sox with Fautino De Los Santos and Ryan Sweeney to the Oakland Athletics for Nick Swisher.

Kc61
12-14-2011, 08:17 PM
I don't believe for a second that Bob would sign off on a trade that would move a guy like Phillips, Bruce, Votto or Cueto. Not for a second. Even if the return was quite good.

You're probably right. But it's hard to succeed with a mid-market team if you aren't creative and, to an extent, aggressive.

The Reds got Joe Morgan, one of the all-time great players IMO, by being aggressive and creative. Years back they had a string of cleanup hitters like Gant, Mitchell, Parker, Vaughn, by creative approaches to player acquisition.

Walt is highly respected and has had an excellent career as a GM. I respect him. But I don't like his statements about frustration and I don't think the stagnant front office is a credit to him or to ownership.

The winter is still young, I'm hopeful that in time Walt will improve the team. I'd like to see a new starter, new relievers, a fix in LF. I'm still hopeful that one or more of these will be forthcoming.

dougdirt
12-14-2011, 08:36 PM
The winter is still young, I'm hopeful that in time Walt will improve the team. I'd like to see a new starter, new relievers, a fix in LF. I'm still hopeful that one or more of these will be forthcoming.

I don't think the Reds share your viewpoint on left field at all. I do think they want a starter and at least a reliever though. They may be willing to create a left field issue if it means fixing one of the pitching issues though.

Kc61
12-14-2011, 08:55 PM
I don't think the Reds share your viewpoint on left field at all. I do think they want a starter and at least a reliever though. They may be willing to create a left field issue if it means fixing one of the pitching issues though.

If the Reds were so high on Alonso for LF, he wouldn't be on the trade block.

He is a rookie playing out of position.

So, I'm not sure you are right about their view on him.

From my perspective, I'm ok with Alonso in left field. That's because I think the Reds need LH bats more than they need RH bats and Alonso may be a good one.

But he is likely to be traded anyway, so the issue could easily be moot.

HokieRed
12-14-2011, 09:18 PM
Alonso and Grandal for Gonzalez? Maybe Alonso, Grandal, and one of Stubbs or Heisey for Gonzalez and Bailey? Do those get it done? Would we do those? [I would not, but I'm on record as not wanting to trade Alonso for anybody--almost.]

dougdirt
12-14-2011, 09:21 PM
If the Reds were so high on Alonso for LF, he wouldn't be on the trade block.
If the Reds didn't think that highly of him, he would have long been gone. He has been rumored about in trade for 2+ years now. He is still here.

The only reason Alonso is on the trade block is because he plays first base/left field, positions where the Reds have other options that won't kill them (Votto at first clearly, Sappelt and Heisey in left).

dougdirt
12-14-2011, 09:22 PM
Alonso and Grandal for Gonzalez? Maybe Alonso, Grandal, and one of Stubbs or Heisey for Gonzalez and Bailey? Do those get it done? Would we do those? [I would not, but I'm on record as not wanting to trade Alonso for anybody--almost.]

If we are trading Alonso and Grandal in the same deal, we better get someone better than Gio Gonzalez. I get that they are rookies and unproven. But they are elite level prospects and Gio Gonzalez is a middle of the rotation starter at best.

HokieRed
12-14-2011, 09:28 PM
If we are trading Alonso and Grandal in the same deal, we better get someone better than Gio Gonzalez. I get that they are rookies and unproven. But they are elite level prospects and Gio Gonzalez is a middle of the rotation starter at best.

Agree. How about Alonso and Stubbs/Heisey?

dougdirt
12-14-2011, 09:32 PM
Agree. How about Alonso and Stubbs/Heisey?

I think that Stubbs and Heisey have very different values. Stubbs has quite a bit more. I would still expect more than Gio for those two.

HokieRed
12-14-2011, 09:34 PM
Gio and Bailey for Alonso, Heisey, and Crabbe.

dougdirt
12-14-2011, 09:46 PM
Gio and Bailey for Alonso, Heisey, and Crabbe.

I really don't see Gio adding anything to this rotation other than one guy giving you 200 innings instead of probably 2 guys combining to do it with similar stats. He simply isn't all that good. I would rather just not trade for him. Giving up talent for a very marginal upgrade at best is bad business.

HokieRed
12-14-2011, 09:49 PM
I really don't see Gio adding anything to this rotation other than one guy giving you 200 innings instead of probably 2 guys combining to do it with similar stats. He simply isn't all that good. I would rather just not trade for him. Giving up talent for a very marginal upgrade at best is bad business.

I actually don't want him either, but it just seems very possible at this point--given the field of possibilities--that he's one of the guys Walt must be close on. And there's been enough smoke about Bailey that there must be at least a little fire.

Vottomatic
12-14-2011, 09:57 PM
I think the A's and some of these other teams are stupid in what they're asking in return. If the A's could get Alonso straight up for Gio, they'd be stupid not to do it. And to have the gall to ask for Mike Stanton in return for Gonzalez is beyond believable.

I'm disappointed at times in Walt. But if these are the ridiculous asking prices, we'll go to war with what we got.

AmarilloRed
12-14-2011, 10:39 PM
I think the A's and some of these other teams are stupid in what they're asking in return. If the A's could get Alonso straight up for Gio, they'd be stupid not to do it. And to have the gall to ask for Mike Stanton in return for Gonzalez is beyond believable.

I'm disappointed at times in Walt. But if these are the ridiculous asking prices, we'll go to war with what we got.

The A's got quite a haul from Dan Haren, so it's reasonable that would expect a similar return for Gio. You're right that they are probably over-estimating Gio's worth, but I don't see any teams being reasonable in trade talks.

dougdirt
12-14-2011, 10:57 PM
The A's got quite a haul from Dan Haren, so it's reasonable that would expect a similar return for Gio. You're right that they are probably over-estimating Gio's worth, but I don't see any teams being reasonable in trade talks.

Dan Haren is a much better pitcher than Gio Gonzalez is too. Dan Haren showed outstanding control while in Oakland and also missed bats.

I don't care what their ERA's say, Haren was the better pitcher between the two. Gio has walked 183 batters over the last two seasons. Dan Haren should have fetched a much larger haul than what Gio should. He is simply a much more likely bet to be good moving forward from their respective times in Oakland.

savafan
12-14-2011, 11:16 PM
Let me just see if I can sum up the general thinking of Redszone here.

The Reds need to get better.

We want the Reds to get better by getting absolute stud players in exchange for an excess of our mediocre spare parts.

No one who is available is any good.

Still, other teams seem to be acquiring these players that we here with our superior baseball knowledge have determined are not any good.

We demand that Walt do something, and we've thrown out some 30 or so fantasy baseball type moves that he could make, and we're discouraged that he hasn't made one of them.

We don't want players over the age of 30 because they're old and old players age and become worthless.

We don't want any players making more than $5 million a year, because there's just no way that the Reds can compete in their market paying guys much more than that.

Analysis: Some team that has veteran players and guys making more than $5 million a year has likely improved themselves by adding role players by either paying them money or trading valuable pieces to acquire them, and that team will win the 2012 World Series.


Does that pretty much sum up the thread? :)

Oh, and I just want to remind everyone that this thread is for discussion, news should be posted in the other thread, because we can't be too bothered to check the actual baseball news websites for that sort of thing. ;)

11larkin11
12-15-2011, 03:20 AM
Let me just see if I can sum up the general thinking of Redszone here.

The Reds need to get better.

We want the Reds to get better by getting absolute stud players in exchange for an excess of our mediocre spare parts.

No one who is available is any good.

Still, other teams seem to be acquiring these players that we here with our superior baseball knowledge have determined are not any good.

We demand that Walt do something, and we've thrown out some 30 or so fantasy baseball type moves that he could make, and we're discouraged that he hasn't made one of them.

We don't want players over the age of 30 because they're old and old players age and become worthless.

We don't want any players making more than $5 million a year, because there's just no way that the Reds can compete in their market paying guys much more than that.

Analysis: Some team that has veteran players and guys making more than $5 million a year has likely improved themselves by adding role players by either paying them money or trading valuable pieces to acquire them, and that team will win the 2012 World Series.


Does that pretty much sum up the thread? :)

Oh, and I just want to remind everyone that this thread is for discussion, news should be posted in the other thread, because we can't be too bothered to check the actual baseball news websites for that sort of thing. ;)

Might be the first post in the entire thread to make sense. Until the last paragraph. The "News Only" thread is a great way to get quick news all in one place. Until its updated every 3 hours with "Reds aren't doing anything!" "Walt's sitting on his hands!" posts.

Vottomatic
12-15-2011, 08:10 AM
Let me just see if I can sum up the general thinking of Redszone here.

The Reds need to get better.

We want the Reds to get better by getting absolute stud players in exchange for an excess of our mediocre spare parts.

No one who is available is any good.

Still, other teams seem to be acquiring these players that we here with our superior baseball knowledge have determined are not any good.

We demand that Walt do something, and we've thrown out some 30 or so fantasy baseball type moves that he could make, and we're discouraged that he hasn't made one of them.

We don't want players over the age of 30 because they're old and old players age and become worthless.

We don't want any players making more than $5 million a year, because there's just no way that the Reds can compete in their market paying guys much more than that.

Analysis: Some team that has veteran players and guys making more than $5 million a year has likely improved themselves by adding role players by either paying them money or trading valuable pieces to acquire them, and that team will win the 2012 World Series.


Does that pretty much sum up the thread? :)

Oh, and I just want to remind everyone that this thread is for discussion, news should be posted in the other thread, because we can't be too bothered to check the actual baseball news websites for that sort of thing. ;)

How old are you? Redszone doesn't like posters over 30 years old either. :laugh:

Seriously, good summary. I think another summarization is that Redszone is not on the same page as to what the Reds should do. This is a very fickle fanbase.

nate
12-15-2011, 09:09 AM
How are you defining average?

Speaking in terms of value, an average SP is worth about 2 fWAR/season.

mbgrayson
12-15-2011, 10:36 AM
Ken Rosenthal thinks that the Reds need to "go for it". See http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/cincinnati-reds-need-to-trade-for-pitching-121411

REDREAD
12-15-2011, 10:45 AM
Agreed. Beane reportedly asking the Marlins for Mike Stanton for Gio Gonzalez tells you how wild things might actually be. If that is true, Gio is staying in Oakland until his contract runs out because no one is going to give up that amount of talent for him. I don't think the Marlins would trade Stanton straight up for Joey Votto, much less a guy who is merely solid like Gio Gonzalez.

I agree. I suspect everyone else with pitching available is also asking for the moon.. And I really don't blame them, it's only December.

If Walt does nothing by opening day, I will join the group that is frustrated with his inaction. It's a little premature now to get upset. I'm not predicting he will get something done -- not really sure. It does annoy me to hear Dusty say that Grandal is untouchable though.. With Hannigan and Mersaco, catching should be at least adequate for awhile. Grandal should be trade bait.

Matt700wlw
12-15-2011, 10:55 AM
“There’s an opportunity,” Jocketty said. “But we feel that if we did nothing, we’d still have a club capable of contending and competing in our division all year. We felt that way last year. We just had some things that didn’t go well for us."

This is getting real old, Walt. REAL old.

TRF
12-15-2011, 10:58 AM
I only want one thing. A good SP. No, I want a very good SP. Actually I want a near ACE SP.

Pretty much I just want James Shields. No one else that is or is rumored to be available.

Brutus
12-15-2011, 11:07 AM
“There’s an opportunity,” Jocketty said. “But we feel that if we did nothing, we’d still have a club capable of contending and competing in our division all year. We felt that way last year. We just had some things that didn’t go well for us."

This is getting real old, Walt. REAL old.

#settingexpectations

IslandRed
12-15-2011, 11:12 AM
This is getting real old, Walt. REAL old.

Don't get hung up on it. It's Negotiating 101 mixed with PR 101. It's okay to say the Reds want to trade for pitching, but the instant the club says they have to or we're doomed, the price goes up. A lot. At that point, the club pays whatever it takes however ridiculous it is, or has to backtrack and convince the fans we're not doomed after all.

REDREAD
12-15-2011, 11:15 AM
Does that pretty much sum up the thread? :)


:lol: I got a kick out of that summary :)

dunner13
12-15-2011, 11:21 AM
The bottom line is every one would be ecstatic if we got shields but if the rays are asking for alonso, mesoraco, hamilton and chapman and Walt made the trade everyone would probably want him fired. In walts defense I think he knows what he is willing to pay for a SP and hes not going to overpay no matter what. So its just going to come down to if another GM is eventually willing to accept what the reds are offering.

Edd Roush
12-15-2011, 12:37 PM
The bottom line is every one would be ecstatic if we got shields but if the rays are asking for alonso, mesoraco, hamilton and chapman and Walt made the trade everyone would probably want him fired. In walts defense I think he knows what he is willing to pay for a SP and hes not going to overpay no matter what. So its just going to come down to if another GM is eventually willing to accept what the reds are offering.

The scary thing is I know you may have exxagerated your deal, but I honestly may think about the deal you proposed. I would obviously counter with Heisey/Grandal/Hamilton/Corcino, but if the Rays needed Chapman to get the deal done, I don't think I make that a sticking point. I would ask for a good reliever in return, but I would give a whole lot to be competitive in 2012 & 2013. Shields makes the Reds real contenders in the NL next year. Heisey/Grandal/Hamilton and Corcino aren't likely to be big contributors in this window. Chapman isn't likely to be anything other than a high K reliever in 2012 & 2013 who isn't a closer. Alonso can help you in 2012 & 2013, so you try to hold onto him, but even then you can replace him with a free agent or a cheap plattoon.

Shields is something you can't find on the free agent market. A TOR arm who allows your rotation to be similar to the Brewers or Cardinals. I still think the Cardinals top 3 of Carpenter/Wainwright/Garcia trumps Cueto/Shields/Leake. But adding even just a Gio Gonzalez/Wade Davis does nothing to make your rotation any better than it is today.

It really is go big or go home. If it takes Hamilton, Mesoraco, Alonso and Chapman, you can't do it, but you can maybe talk the Rays into Grandal instead of Mes or Heisey instead of Alonso or a combination of low minors arms for Chapman. Gotta do something big to make us real contenders, Walt.

Benihana
12-15-2011, 12:51 PM
The scary thing is I know you may have exxagerated your deal, but I honestly may think about the deal you proposed. I would obviously counter with Heisey/Grandal/Hamilton/Corcino, but if the Rays needed Chapman to get the deal done, I don't think I make that a sticking point. I would ask for a good reliever in return, but I would give a whole lot to be competitive in 2012 & 2013. Shields makes the Reds real contenders in the NL next year. Heisey/Grandal/Hamilton and Corcino aren't likely to be big contributors in this window. Chapman isn't likely to be anything other than a high K reliever in 2012 & 2013 who isn't a closer. Alonso can help you in 2012 & 2013, so you try to hold onto him, but even then you can replace him with a free agent or a cheap plattoon.

Shields is something you can't find on the free agent market. A TOR arm who allows your rotation to be similar to the Brewers or Cardinals. I still think the Cardinals top 3 of Carpenter/Wainwright/Garcia trumps Cueto/Shields/Leake. But adding even just a Gio Gonzalez/Wade Davis does nothing to make your rotation any better than it is today.

It really is go big or go home. If it takes Hamilton, Mesoraco, Alonso and Chapman, you can't do it, but you can maybe talk the Rays into Grandal instead of Mes or Heisey instead of Alonso or a combination of low minors arms for Chapman. Gotta do something big to make us real contenders, Walt.

No way.

If Jocketty really put Alonso and Grandal in the same deal, that would likely be enough to garner a top arm. Whether that is Shields, Garza, Latos, Pineda, Gonzalez, or someone else- someone will surely bite on that package. I don't have the same tunnel vision for Shields as others on this board. I'd be just fine with one of the others I mentioned.

No thanks on Danks, Jurrjens, Davis or Niemann, especially if the price is as high as some are reporting/includes Alonso.

Vottomatic
12-15-2011, 01:08 PM
Aside from adding his payroll, why not trade for Wandy?

Benihana
12-15-2011, 01:11 PM
Aside from adding his payroll, why not trade for Wandy?

I think you answered your own question. Plus they weren't willing to trade Pence in the division, so same might apply for Wandy (despite the fact that they're only in the division for one more season).

And I'd rather have Shields, Garza, Pineda, Latos, and Gonzalez all before Wandy on talent alone, let alone when salary considerations are factored in.

Vottomatic
12-15-2011, 01:18 PM
I think you answered your own question. Plus they weren't willing to trade Pence in the division, so same might apply for Wandy (despite the fact that they're only in the division for one more season).

And I'd rather have Shields, Garza, Pineda, Latos, and Gonzalez all before Wandy on talent alone, let alone when salary considerations are factored in.

I'd trade for one of those guys and trade for Wandy. That would free up 2 of our current starting pitchers not named Cueto, Leake or Arroyo, to trade (Bailey, Volquez, Wood).

If we can acquire 2 quality starting pitchers, I'm willing to trade Bailey, Volquez, Wood, Grandal, Alonso, Stubbs, Sappelt, Heisey, Soto, and various other minor leaguers to get a deal done. Obviously it wouldn't take all of those guys to get it done, but some combination.

Benihana
12-15-2011, 01:30 PM
I'd trade for one of those guys and trade for Wandy. That would free up 2 of our current starting pitchers not named Cueto, Leake or Arroyo, to trade (Bailey, Volquez, Wood).

If we can acquire 2 quality starting pitchers, I'm willing to trade Bailey, Volquez, Wood, Grandal, Alonso, Stubbs, Sappelt, Heisey, Soto, and various other minor leaguers to get a deal done. Obviously it wouldn't take all of those guys to get it done, but some combination.

Doubtful the Reds could add that kind of salary.

MikeS21
12-15-2011, 02:24 PM
I'd trade for one of those guys and trade for Wandy. That would free up 2 of our current starting pitchers not named Cueto, Leake or Arroyo, to trade (Bailey, Volquez, Wood).

If we can acquire 2 quality starting pitchers, I'm willing to trade Bailey, Volquez, Wood, Grandal, Alonso, Stubbs, Sappelt, Heisey, Soto, and various other minor leaguers to get a deal done. Obviously it wouldn't take all of those guys to get it done, but some combination.
And it could be argued that you are giving up three quality starting pitchers in order to get two quality starting pitchers.

Bailey, I flat out keep. He's still young and is maturing nicely. Folks keep forgetting that he was rushed to the major leagues at least two years too early. He has been around forever, but he is only now getting to the age that you would expect from a second year player. He is still 2-3 years away from reaching his prime. I'd trade Leake before I traded Bailey (and I don't think I'd trade Leake).

Volquez, I give him one more year removed from TJ surgery. I know he is wild, but command is always the last thing to come back once you've had the surgery. I would move EV to closer before I traded him.

You could trade Travis Wood, but, like Bailey, he has earned the right for us to be patient. Has pitched masterful games and has pitched a few stinkers. That seems to be a youth problem rather than a ceiling.

None of these three are what I would call legitimate #1 starters, but neither are any of the names I've heard thrown around as potential trade acquisitions. As I see it, you are trading similar pitchers who had off years, for the same pitchers who had career years.

Reds/Flyers Fan
12-15-2011, 02:56 PM
“There’s an opportunity,” Jocketty said. “But we feel that if we did nothing, we’d still have a club capable of contending and competing in our division all year. We felt that way last year. We just had some things that didn’t go well for us."

This is getting real old, Walt. REAL old.

Yea, like 83 games :thumbdown:

Honestly, Mike Brown is vilified in this city for making comments EXACTLY like that.

savafan
12-15-2011, 02:59 PM
None of these three are what I would call legitimate #1 starters, but neither are any of the names I've heard thrown around as potential trade acquisitions. As I see it, you are trading similar pitchers who had off years, for the same pitchers who had career years.

:thumbup:

Captain Hook
12-15-2011, 04:25 PM
Jon Heyman tweets that there could be a mystery team in on Darvish. Was there anymore reason to believe that the Reds were the mystery team before they signed Chapman then there is now with Darvish?

http://twitter.com/#!/JonHeymanCBS

RedLegSuperStar
12-15-2011, 04:37 PM
Jon Heyman tweets that there could be a mystery team in on Darvish. Was there anymore reason to believe that the Reds were the mystery team before they signed Chapman then there is now with Darvish?

http://twitter.com/#!/JonHeymanCBS

I think the winner will be Toronto.. They are said to have put in an extremely high offer

RedsManRick
12-15-2011, 04:42 PM
Jon Heyman tweets that there could be a mystery team in on Darvish. Was there anymore reason to believe that the Reds were the mystery team before they signed Chapman then there is now with Darvish?

http://twitter.com/#!/JonHeymanCBS

There was an article on Fangraphs today that compares Darvish to current MLB pitchers, asking what they'd get in FA. Cueto was among them and considered a "floor" comparison. Basically, they say he'll probably wind up with something like 5/60 on top of a 40 mil posting fee. Not sure I see the Reds paying the equivalent of $20MM/yr for anybody.

Vottomatic
12-15-2011, 05:17 PM
I think the next time Walt is asked, he should say the asking price is too high for all our very talented prospects and players, and unless some team comes to them with a fair offer, the Reds are content to go to war with what we've got. Then sit back and hope they come to the Reds. Sometimes his comments make the Reds look eager and desperate.

They should have sat back at the end of the season and acted like they were in the trade market. That's when teams come to you.

_Sir_Charles_
12-15-2011, 05:29 PM
None of these three are what I would call legitimate #1 starters, but neither are any of the names I've heard thrown around as potential trade acquisitions. As I see it, you are trading similar pitchers who had off years, for the same pitchers who had career years.

My feeling exactly. I haven't seen any names thrown around this off-season who are legitimate upgrades IMO. I fully expect to see our kids improve. Keep 'em healthy would be the first step.

GoReds
12-15-2011, 06:00 PM
Okay, huge grain of salt here...

I'm currently in Japan at a Marine Base. Ran into a guy on base who has been here for several years and said he used to work out at the same gym as Yu Darvish. The guy said that Yu has grown in size, but he is a "used up pitcher". Said his arm was going to fall off soon and he was looking for a payday before then.

I have no ties with the gentlemen I spoke and could question his sanity as he was dressed in a Brewers uniform, yet said he was actually a Cardinals fan. He was insistent that Darvish is not long for baseball.

klw
12-15-2011, 06:30 PM
Jon Heyman tweets that there could be a mystery team in on Darvish. Was there anymore reason to believe that the Reds were the mystery team before they signed Chapman then there is now with Darvish?

http://twitter.com/#!/JonHeymanCBS

Mystery team has been very active this offseason.


As it was a closed bid system where even the posting team doesn't know who posted the highest bid at this stage how can a mystery team be involved and isn't every team which is involved a mystery. By that I mean we have no idea who is involved other than what is being stated by the teams. It could be said a team is lying about if it is actually involved but it isn't really a mystery in the sense that we know the Marlins and Cards are bidding on Pujols and a mystery 3rd team has an offer. Sorry brain is fried..

mattfeet
12-15-2011, 10:08 PM
Based off of what the A's are apparently asking for Gio Gonzalez, Im glad Walt hasn't pulled the trigger. Asking for Alonso, 1 catching prospect, + 1 other MiLB player is too much.

AmarilloRed
12-15-2011, 10:22 PM
Dan Haren is a much better pitcher than Gio Gonzalez is too. Dan Haren showed outstanding control while in Oakland and also missed bats.

I don't care what their ERA's say, Haren was the better pitcher between the two. Gio has walked 183 batters over the last two seasons. Dan Haren should have fetched a much larger haul than what Gio should. He is simply a much more likely bet to be good moving forward from their respective times in Oakland.

All that may be true Doug, but the A's have made it clear they won't accept less than what they got for Haren. The asking price for starting pitching is ridiculous right now. It's why I'm glad there hasn't been a trade-there's no way a equitable trade could be made right now. Wait for the price to come down, and make a trade when teams are a bit more reasonable.

savafan
12-15-2011, 10:34 PM
Maybe now would be a good time to make Cueto available if the Reds could get a similar package of prospects and think that the pitchers they have can still give them enough to compete.

It would be difficult to do, and I'd hate to move him, but sometimes you have to make tough decisions like that.

Dan
12-15-2011, 11:34 PM
You know, maybe we should be exited that our prospects are in such high demand.

RedlegJake
12-16-2011, 04:38 AM
Based off of what the A's are apparently asking for Gio Gonzalez, Im glad Walt hasn't pulled the trigger. Asking for Alonso, 1 catching prospect, + 1 other MiLB player is too much.

It depends. Do you believe Gonzalez can be successfulin GAB? He's had 2 consecutive very good seasons in Oakland. His peripherals are good, not great. His control is a bit weak. His numbers have improved season to season showing the right progression. He's young and getting better. But - he pitches in a pitchers park, in what could be called a pitcher's division, parkwise; weighed against pitching in the AL where he faces the DH every time out.
Second - do you believe in Mesaraco? Or Yas? Which one is better in the long run? Will Oakland accept either one? If so, trade Alonso, the one you believe is the lesser of the two, and aother prospect and go for it.

YES - I would do it. YES. You have to do it if you want to get pitching. I believe his numbers would inflate somewhat in GB but not facing the DH would offset the ballpark factor somewhat, and he's a strong healthy arm with the right attitude.

mth123
12-16-2011, 07:14 AM
It depends. Do you believe Gonzalez can be successfulin GAB? He's had 2 consecutive very good seasons in Oakland. His peripherals are good, not great. His control is a bit weak. His numbers have improved season to season showing the right progression. He's young and getting better. But - he pitches in a pitchers park, in what could be called a pitcher's division, parkwise; weighed against pitching in the AL where he faces the DH every time out.
Second - do you believe in Mesaraco? Or Yas? Which one is better in the long run? Will Oakland accept either one? If so, trade Alonso, the one you believe is the lesser of the two, and aother prospect and go for it.

YES - I would do it. YES. You have to do it if you want to get pitching. I believe his numbers would inflate somewhat in GB but not facing the DH would offset the ballpark factor somewhat, and he's a strong healthy arm with the right attitude.

I'm a skeptic where Gonzalez is concerned. I'd take him in the right deal, but trading Alonso opens a hole in the middle of the order that would require another move to fill. I have no problem dealing Grandal and a lesser prospect (say some one in the high teens or low 20's in the prospect ratings) but I wouldn't include Alonso for Gio. Substitute Stubbs, and I'm in. Stubbs, Grandal and say Lotzkar I'd do if that package wouldn't net somebody better.

I might add Alonso if the A's would include Chris Carter with Gio.

RedLegSuperStar
12-16-2011, 09:42 AM
If Bailey is included I'd send Alonso, Grandal, Homer, and Corcino

Edd Roush
12-16-2011, 09:49 AM
If Bailey is included I'd send Alonso, Grandal, Homer, and Corcino

Why does anyone want to deal Homer? Unless you never feel like Homer will be healthy, I see no viable reason. Dude had a 3.21 K:BB ratio last year and I believe he will stay healthy in 2012 and his value will increase dramatically. Furthermore, he should be cheap in 2012 and is very likely to produce more value than he will cost.

Anyone would be available in a trade if I was GM, but Homer's value is very low right now. I don't want to sell low on Homer right now and that's what I think you would be doing if you traded him this off-season.

Kc61
12-16-2011, 10:03 AM
Why does anyone want to deal Homer? Unless you never feel like Homer will be healthy, I see no viable reason. Dude had a 3.21 K:BB ratio last year and I believe he will stay healthy in 2012 and his value will increase dramatically. Furthermore, he should be cheap in 2012 and is very likely to produce more value than he will cost.

Anyone would be available in a trade if I was GM, but Homer's value is very low right now. I don't want to sell low on Homer right now and that's what I think you would be doing if you traded him this off-season.

One reason might be that Homer has never had an overall, high caliber, major league season.

So people would trade him if necessary to get pitchers who have had those seasons.

Mario-Rijo
12-16-2011, 10:46 AM
Why does anyone want to deal Homer? Unless you never feel like Homer will be healthy, I see no viable reason. Dude had a 3.21 K:BB ratio last year and I believe he will stay healthy in 2012 and his value will increase dramatically. Furthermore, he should be cheap in 2012 and is very likely to produce more value than he will cost.

Anyone would be available in a trade if I was GM, but Homer's value is very low right now. I don't want to sell low on Homer right now and that's what I think you would be doing if you traded him this off-season.

I have to agree with you, right now I like him in the rotation. I also don't think he brings back more than he will be worth to the Reds. He Cueto and Leake all are not moving right now if I am the Reds, unless someone offers me something I can't refuse. Those 3 I feel all give us a solid trio of competitive outings night and in and night out. Arroyo is the only worrisome spot because I think we have enough to get that 5th spot worked out one way or another. Basically with Chapman being shut down in the Fall league I think it's pertinent that we keep all the arms we already have (sans Arroyo) and add one more to the mix. If not Wood should be #5 until he proves he can't hold it down and frankly I think folks have given up on him too soon. Really all he needs to do to be effective is starting getting the ball down and maybe work outside a touch more and that is it IMO. But I certainly would like to make a deal for a Shields or Danks (not so much Gio).

One other thing, if Edinson would quit being a sissy and go after guys more he could find himself again. Too much trying to be cute and fancy and trying to trick them results in higher BB%, just not sure he has the fire in his belly to get it done.

Edd Roush
12-16-2011, 11:26 AM
I have to agree with you, right now I like him in the rotation. I also don't think he brings back more than he will be worth to the Reds. He Cueto and Leake all are not moving right now if I am the Reds, unless someone offers me something I can't refuse. Those 3 I feel all give us a solid trio of competitive outings night and in and night out. Arroyo is the only worrisome spot because I think we have enough to get that 5th spot worked out one way or another. Basically with Chapman being shut down in the Fall league I think it's pertinent that we keep all the arms we already have (sans Arroyo) and add one more to the mix. If not Wood should be #5 until he proves he can't hold it down and frankly I think folks have given up on him too soon. Really all he needs to do to be effective is starting getting the ball down and maybe work outside a touch more and that is it IMO. But I certainly would like to make a deal for a Shields or Danks (not so much Gio).

One other thing, if Edinson would quit being a sissy and go after guys more he could find himself again. Too much trying to be cute and fancy and trying to trick them results in higher BB%, just not sure he has the fire in his belly to get it done.


I agree that we shouldn't trade a starter unless we are getting one back. That being said, I agree that we should hold onto Leake/Cueto/Bailey unless we are way overpaid for them. I don't hate Danks as a target, but I would want to work out an extension with him before I finalize that trade. He only has one more (expensive) year left before he is a free agent. That being said, Danks is the kind of guy you pay like you did Arroyo. Danks would be a rock in the rotation. I actually think I like Niese over Danks, but I like Danks over Wade Davis or Gio. I just can't get behind trading for a guy who led all pitchers in walks allowed.

Edd Roush
12-16-2011, 11:27 AM
One reason might be that Homer has never had an overall, high caliber, major league season.

So people would trade him if necessary to get pitchers who have had those seasons.

If the Reds had four Cuetos in the rotation and one Bailey, sure deal Homer for a better starter. I am down for that. However, the Reds only have two guys who are rocks in the rotation (Leake and Cueto). I think Homer is a good bet in 2012 if he can avoid the injury bug. I want to add another starter (I can dream about two) to add to the three we already have. Trading Bailey for a better starter is a start, but still leaves you two starters short IMO.

camisadelgolf
12-16-2011, 11:31 AM
Walt Jocketty said the Reds won't be placing a bid on Darvish. He may stretch the truth from time to time, but I don't recall him ever blatantly lying quite like that.

Kc61
12-16-2011, 11:34 AM
If the Reds had four Cuetos in the rotation and one Bailey, sure deal Homer for a better starter. I am down for that. However, the Reds only have two guys who are rocks in the rotation (Leake and Cueto). I think Homer is a good bet in 2012 if he can avoid the injury bug. I want to add another starter (I can dream about two) to add to the three we already have. Trading Bailey for a better starter is a start, but still leaves you two starters short IMO.

I'd prefer to keep Homer as well.

But given how difficult it is to get front line pitching, if you need to include Homer in a deal, you do it.

Not my first choice, and I'm sure not the Reds' first choice, but in the right deal he has to be considered expendable.

Scrap Irony
12-16-2011, 11:37 AM
Homer can be a front line pitcher.

And I'm pretty sure Edinson Volquez is Spanish for "Gio Gonzalez in a smaller ballpark".

Edd Roush
12-16-2011, 11:38 AM
I'd prefer to keep Homer as well.

But given how difficult it is to get front line pitching, if you need to include Homer in a deal, you do it.

Not my first choice, and I'm sure not the Reds' first choice, but in the right deal he has to be considered expendable.

That being said, do you think the Reds will trade Homer for a pitcher much better than himself and then add two more starters who are Homer Bailey-level? I sure don't. I think we may have one starter trade and then be done.

If it's Homer+non Alonso pieces for Shields, I am fine with that. If it's Homer + Alonso+more for Gio Gonzalez, I am calling for Walt's dismissal.

mdccclxix
12-16-2011, 12:01 PM
You know every year, by the end, I'm ready to get rid of Bailey. He finally convinces me that his straight FB and inability to get the big out will doom his career. Then as the off season develops I start dreaming on his potential again. This year, I am resolved that dealing Bailey is acceptable in many cases. He's a 5-6 inning pitcher with shoulder issues and a high to mid 4 ERA. Sure, he could click at some point, but it's not a sure thing. If his value is way too low, and he gets squeezed from the rotation, put him in the pen I suppose

RedLegSuperStar
12-16-2011, 12:32 PM
Walt Jocketty said the Reds won't be placing a bid on Darvish. He may stretch the truth from time to time, but I don't recall him ever blatantly lying quite like that.

Darvish is a Blue Jay

Vottomatic
12-16-2011, 01:00 PM
Darvish is a Blue Jay

What did that cost them?

RedLegSuperStar
12-16-2011, 01:11 PM
What did that cost them?

Its been said between 40-50 Million

RedLegSuperStar
12-16-2011, 01:14 PM
@jimbowdenESPNxm : multiple sources cooberating the NY Post Report that the Blue Jays won the bidding for Yu Darvish...they have until Tues to complete a deal

jojo
12-16-2011, 01:25 PM
Darvish is a Blue Jay

Correction....if Toronto won the posting fee bid, Darvish can only become a Blue Jay if he wants to play in the majors...

REDREAD
12-16-2011, 01:43 PM
You know every year, by the end, I'm ready to get rid of Bailey. He finally convinces me that his straight FB and inability to get the big out will doom his career. Then as the off season develops I start dreaming on his potential again. This year, I am resolved that dealing Bailey is acceptable in many cases. He's a 5-6 inning pitcher with shoulder issues and a high to mid 4 ERA. Sure, he could click at some point, but it's not a sure thing. If his value is way too low, and he gets squeezed from the rotation, put him in the pen I suppose

Another way to look at it.. The Reds control Homer for 3 more years.
He's young, but he's racked up the service time.
If you trade Homer for a guy that can give you two solid years in the rotation, I do that every time.

In other words, if Danks had two more years left (and the Reds could afford him).. Homer for Danks makes a lot of sense. Danks is what we hope Homer becomes eventually. (Since Danks only has one year left, it's less appealing, but I would not totally rule it out).

Homer for Gio makes no sense at all, to me.

In any event, even if Walt is able to acquire a nice solid starting pitcher, much of our fate next year depends on Homer and Arroyo. Hopefully they will come through for us.

lollipopcurve
12-16-2011, 02:42 PM
Correction....if Toronto won the posting fee bid, Darvish can only become a Blue Jay if he wants to play in the majors...

Right. And they have 30 days, starting next Tuesday, to make a deal. If Darvish does not sign, he can play another year (or two?) in Japan and then become a free agent, meaning he could negotiate with every team, not just one.

Edd Roush
12-16-2011, 03:35 PM
Latest Rosenthal tweets, nothing earth-shattering:

If Latos is really on the block, I want him... I would pay Shields price for him. Alonso + Grandal + Hamilton + other pieces...

Benihana
12-16-2011, 04:28 PM
If Latos is really on the block, I want him... I would pay Shields price for him. Alonso + Grandal + Hamilton + other pieces...

I wouldn't pay that much, but I'd certainly trade 2 of those. Preferably Grandal and Hamilton, and let Yonder play LF. The Pads just traded for Anthony Rizzo, so it's doubtful they'd also want Alonso (despite Rizzo's underwhelming debut).

I wonder if by "too expensive" for Garza, he means in terms of prospects or salary? Really discouraging if it's the latter.

I'd also happily take Jurrjens so long as it didn't cost Alonso. In fact, unless we're getting a true stud like Shields, Garza, or Pineda, I'd rather hang onto Alonso. Gonzalez is borderline for me, although in the end I'd probably pull the trigger.

Edd Roush
12-16-2011, 04:41 PM
I wouldn't pay that much, but I'd certainly trade 2 of those. Preferably Grandal and Hamilton, and let Yonder play LF. The Pads just traded for Anthony Rizzo, so it's doubtful they'd also want Alonso (despite Rizzo's underwhelming debut).

I wonder if by "too expensive" for Garza, he means in terms of prospects or salary? Really discouraging if it's the latter.

I'd also happily take Jurrjens so long as it didn't cost Alonso. In fact, unless we're getting a true stud like Shields, Garza, or Pineda, I'd rather hang onto Alonso. Gonzalez is borderline for me, although in the end I'd probably pull the trigger.

I think Latos is a true stud. In fact, I'd rather have him than Garza due to salaray and he has had longer ML success than Pineda. I like Shields the most obviously, but Latos would be an ace for us and is worth all three. I wouldn't start with offering all three, but I would go that high if necessary. I wonder if we could substitute Sappelt or Heisey for Alonso in my deal. I just don't see them dealing Latos after adding Street; makes no sense to me.

RANDY IN INDY
12-16-2011, 04:44 PM
A lot of baseball folks speak very highly of Latos's stuff. Have heard that he is not the best in the clubhouse and a little high strung.

bucksfan2
12-16-2011, 04:50 PM
Yes please on Mat Latos. It would be even better if they don't have to give up Alonso to get him.

Benihana
12-16-2011, 04:58 PM
Yes please on Mat Latos. It would be even better if they don't have to give up Alonso to get him.

Totally agree.

If we could keep Alonso out of the deal, I'd give them their pick of any three current minor leaguers. Maybe even add an OF like Heisey or Sappelt.

Scrap Irony
12-16-2011, 05:18 PM
You could back up the prospect truck for Latos-- I'd think it'd take (at minimum) pne or two of Sappelt, Heisey, and Stubbs; two of Volquez, Wood, Bailey, or Leake; one of Francisco or Frazier; one of Hamilton, Cozart, Torreyes, Didi; one of Corcino, Boxberger, Chapman.

Theoretically, a Stubbs, Heisey, Leake, Volquez, Francisco, Hamilton, and Chapman deal might interest the Pads. That'd be two starting pitchers, three starting players, a dynamite prospect, and either a TOR prospect arm or an elite closer in waiting.

The problem with that, from the Reds perspective, is that they've pretty much used up all their trade chips in one deal. They'd have to go free agent for the closer (Ryan Madson, please) and perhaps (depending on the erstwhile Padre deal) another starter (Oswalt, please).

That might make it easier to swallow from a talent standpoint, as that team is tough:

Phillips 2B
Sappelt CF
Votto 1B
Bruce RF
Rolen/ Frazier 3B
Alonso LF
Mesoraco/ Hanigan C
Cozart SS

Rotation:
Latos
Oswalt
Cueto
Bailey
Arroyo

Madson
Arrendondo
Massett
Bray
Ondrusek
LeCure

Edd Roush
12-16-2011, 05:25 PM
You could back up the prospect truck for Latos-- I'd think it'd take (at minimum) pne or two of Sappelt, Heisey, and Stubbs; two of Volquez, Wood, Bailey, or Leake; one of Francisco or Frazier; one of Hamilton, Cozart, Torreyes, Didi; one of Corcino, Boxberger, Chapman.

Theoretically, a Stubbs, Heisey, Leake, Volquez, Francisco, Hamilton, and Chapman deal might interest the Pads. That'd be two starting pitchers, three starting players, a dynamite prospect, and either a TOR prospect arm or an elite closer in waiting.

The problem with that, from the Reds perspective, is that they've pretty much used up all their trade chips in one deal. They'd have to go free agent for the closer (Ryan Madson, please) and perhaps (depending on the erstwhile Padre deal) another starter (Oswalt, please).

That might make it easier to swallow from a talent standpoint, as that team is tough:

Phillips 2B
Sappelt CF
Votto 1B
Bruce RF
Rolen/ Frazier 3B
Alonso LF
Mesoraco/ Hanigan C
Cozart SS

Rotation:
Latos
Oswalt
Cueto
Bailey
Arroyo

Madson
Arrendondo
Massett
Bray
Ondrusek
LeCure

Wanna be GM, Scrap? That team looks like the one I think Walt should put together and that team could be a World Series contender...

Benihana
12-16-2011, 05:25 PM
You could back up the prospect truck for Latos-- I'd think it'd take (at minimum) pne or two of Sappelt, Heisey, and Stubbs; two of Volquez, Wood, Bailey, or Leake; one of Francisco or Frazier; one of Hamilton, Cozart, Torreyes, Didi; one of Corcino, Boxberger, Chapman.

Theoretically, a Stubbs, Heisey, Leake, Volquez, Francisco, Hamilton, and Chapman deal might interest the Pads. That'd be two starting pitchers, three starting players, a dynamite prospect, and either a TOR prospect arm or an elite closer in waiting.


With all due respect, that's laughable. Please show me one other trade in MLB history that has included 2 major league SP, 2 major league (starting-caliber) OF, a major league INF and 2 Top 100 prospects for one player?

Latos, and most of the other arms we're talking about, certainly won't come cheap. But this may be the least realistic trade idea I've heard in ten years on this board.

Not to mention, you couple it with signing not one, but two free agents who will certainly demand eight-figure salaries per annum.

Vottomatic
12-16-2011, 05:26 PM
You could back up the prospect truck for Latos-- I'd think it'd take (at minimum) pne or two of Sappelt, Heisey, and Stubbs; two of Volquez, Wood, Bailey, or Leake; one of Francisco or Frazier; one of Hamilton, Cozart, Torreyes, Didi; one of Corcino, Boxberger, Chapman.

Theoretically, a Stubbs, Heisey, Leake, Volquez, Francisco, Hamilton, and Chapman deal might interest the Pads. That'd be two starting pitchers, three starting players, a dynamite prospect, and either a TOR prospect arm or an elite closer in waiting.

The problem with that, from the Reds perspective, is that they've pretty much used up all their trade chips in one deal. They'd have to go free agent for the closer (Ryan Madson, please) and perhaps (depending on the erstwhile Padre deal) another starter (Oswalt, please).

That might make it easier to swallow from a talent standpoint, as that team is tough:

Phillips 2B
Sappelt CF
Votto 1B
Bruce RF
Rolen/ Frazier 3B
Alonso LF
Mesoraco/ Hanigan C
Cozart SS

Rotation:
Latos
Oswalt
Cueto
Bailey
Arroyo

Madson
Arrendondo
Massett
Bray
Ondrusek
LeCure

That's ridiculous. Stubbs, Bailey, Chapman, and Hamilton should be enough.

IslandRed
12-16-2011, 05:31 PM
You could back up the prospect truck for Latos-- I'd think it'd take (at minimum) pne or two of Sappelt, Heisey, and Stubbs; two of Volquez, Wood, Bailey, or Leake; one of Francisco or Frazier; one of Hamilton, Cozart, Torreyes, Didi; one of Corcino, Boxberger, Chapman.

Theoretically, a Stubbs, Heisey, Leake, Volquez, Francisco, Hamilton, and Chapman deal might interest the Pads. That'd be two starting pitchers, three starting players, a dynamite prospect, and either a TOR prospect arm or an elite closer in waiting.

If I'm offering seven for one, with all seven being useful players or premium prospects, I'd better be getting the best five years of Sandy Koufax's career in return and that bump better make us a favorite to get to the World Series. Latos is a nice pitcher, but a 4-WAR guy isn't worth burning the organizational depth to the waterline.

bucksfan2
12-16-2011, 05:46 PM
That's ridiculous. Stubbs, Bailey, Chapman, and Hamilton should be enough.

As mentioned before the Padres already have Maybin so Stubbs won't do much for them. Also you have to take into consideration that while still relatively inexpensive Stubbs, Bailey, and Chapman all will be making some cash next season.

I think the package starts around Hamilton and Grandal and adds an arm. If it is Bailey or Volquez I think some cash has to change hands.

HokieRed
12-16-2011, 05:54 PM
Any trade involving Bailey is going to be a loser. JMHO.

RedLegSuperStar
12-16-2011, 06:30 PM
Drafted in the first round by the Reds in 2004 is Homer Baileys highlight of his career. He hasn't proven he is a reliable arm as every year he has had some type of injury. I love the kid. But if a team is offering a better option I'm not opposed to dealing him. He is our Brandon Claussen.. We hold him high regard because of potential. Myself included.. But if I can net a top of the rotation arm and I mean top 1-3 arm I dangle Homer Bailey. I dangle him for a Hanley too. He shouldnt be untouchable.

camisadelgolf
12-16-2011, 07:14 PM
It is extremely rare for a team to trade 4 players on a 40-man roster for 1. In fact, it might be so rare that it has never happened.

Also, the Padres already have Cameron Maybin, who they're very high on, so I really doubt they'd have any interest in Drew Stubbs.

And why would they be interested in a third baseman like Todd Frazier or Juan Francisco? They already have Chase Headley and James Darnell.

PuffyPig
12-16-2011, 11:46 PM
Wanna be GM, Scrap? That team looks like the one I think Walt should put together and that team could be a World Series contender...

Much easier to be a GM when you give him a mythical $20M extra to spend.

RANDY IN INDY
12-16-2011, 11:52 PM
Much easier to be a GM when you give him a mythical $20M extra to spend.

So true.

AmarilloRed
12-17-2011, 12:17 AM
It is extremely rare for a team to trade 4 players on a 40-man roster for 1. In fact, it might be so rare that it has never happened.

Also, the Padres already have Cameron Maybin, who they're very high on, so I really doubt they'd have any interest in Drew Stubbs.

And why would they be interested in a third baseman like Todd Frazier or Juan Francisco? They already have Chase Headley and James Darnell.

Padres GM Josh Byrne has said he's willing to talk about trading any player on the roster, and Chase Headley is mentioned as having a fair likelihood to be traded. It's not a sure thing Maybin or Headley will be on the Padres roster next year.

Blitz Dorsey
12-17-2011, 02:49 AM
This thread shouldn't even be more than a page if we were being realistic. Are we sure Walt actually knows he's the GM of the team? Here is a golden opportunity for the Reds to win the NL Central and Walt is sitting back doing nothing. Maybe he's content with Pujols and LaRussa leaving the Cards, Fielder leaving the Brewers (most likely) and Braun being suspended 50 games. But it sure would be nice if Uncle Walt would actually improve his own club. What a concept!

Blitz Dorsey
12-17-2011, 02:52 AM
Any trade involving Bailey is going to be a loser. JMHO.

Maybe for the team that gets Bailey, IMO. I'm not saying we give up on Homer by any means, but if a team wants to give us a good deal for him, I'm all about it. I would love to see a package of Bailey, Volquez and Stubbs for a top-shelf starter like Shields.

RedlegJake
12-17-2011, 06:39 AM
Chapman I'd trade, even though he is special just because the Reds have a very short time period to develop him and I don't think they can get him to TOR status before his time in Cincy runs out - therefore he may be more valuable as a trading chip.

Bailey just needs to stay healthy for a full year - my bet is he blossoms into what everyone saw when he was drafted IF he can do that. Big if. Right now though I have to think you'd be trading him low with his health issues. He can't really hurt his value too much, he's already considered fragile - all he can do is increase his status - then you either sign him out of his first couple years of FA or trade him while he has a couple years of control left and get a major package for him as a front line pitcher (heck even if he falls into mid rotation status that still brings a hefty return nowadays). No way do I want Bailey traded right now unless he brings Shields, Garza or Pineda to the Reds.

And Hamilton keeps coming up in trade talks. I'm against trading that kid unless he brings THE pitcher to Reds. He is special and could be a game changer. I think you have to keep him and see if he can develop because he started so raw - it's amazing that he's come so far already.

Putting all three of these guys in a trade for Latos along with Francisco and Stubbs and more? That's just crazy talk. Latos is not Walter Johnson or Warren Spahn or even Mario Soto.

Vottomatic
12-19-2011, 02:12 PM
http://www.mlbdailydish.com/section/rumors

Red Sox after Joakim Soria. KC wants 2 solid prospects/major league players for him.

Vottomatic
12-19-2011, 02:16 PM
Reds no longer after Gio Gonzalez, but 4 other teams are hot after him.

http://www.mlbdailydish.com/2011/12/16/2641467/gio-gonzalez-rumors-red-sox-rangers-tigers

Yankees, Tigers, Rangers, and Red Sox are hot after him.

Reds have set the bar high with the Latos trade.

RedLegSuperStar
12-19-2011, 02:31 PM
http://www.mlbdailydish.com/section/rumors

Red Sox after Joakim Soria. KC wants 2 solid prospects/major league players for him.

I'd rather have Soria then Coco or Anyone else available. Frazier, Bailey, and Masset

Edd Roush
12-19-2011, 04:40 PM
I'd rather have Soria then Coco or Anyone else available. Frazier, Bailey, and Masset

No way do I do that deal. Bailey should be etched into the rotation, IMO.

If Storen is available for a centerfielder plus minor league parts, I would much rather have Storen.

If Storen's not available, I think Madson will come for a price similar to what Soria is going to be paid the next three years and does not cost talent.

If Soria costs Frazier, Masset and Bailey, no way I do that deal.

The highest I would go is a centerfielder plus minor league parts. If you deal Bailey, you have no one to take over for Arroyo in the big league rotation if he's getting rocked (assuming Chapman takes Bailey's spot in the rotation).

We don't really have any MLers to offer for bullpen help other than the centerfield redundancy. I, unlike Walt, would deal Hamilton, but not for a closer. If we could get a good LF under control for a while and cheap, I would deal Hamilton.

Vottomatic
12-19-2011, 04:42 PM
I wonder if or when the Reds might consider dipping into free agency.

Benihana
12-19-2011, 05:32 PM
New post-trade offseason priorities:

PART I - Left Field
a. Sign Carlos Beltran to a 2-year $24MM deal.
b. Trade for Seth Smith if we can't get Beltran. Don't give up a Top 5 prospect.

PART II - Closer
a. Trade a CF for Drew Storen. Preferably Chris Heisey or Dave Sappelt. Add minor leaguers if necessary.
b. Sign Coco if we cannot get Storen.

PART III - The Rotation
a. Sign Hiroki Kuroda to a 1-year deal.
b. Go to war with what we have if you can't sign Kuroda. (I don't forsee another Latos-like deal for Gonzalez, Shields, etc.)

Vottomatic
12-19-2011, 05:43 PM
New post-trade offseason priorities:

PART I - Left Field
a. Sign Carlos Beltran to a 2-year $24MM deal.
b. Trade for Seth Smith if we can't get Beltran. Don't give up a Top 5 prospect.

I'm okay with Beltran. Don't see the point of Seth Smith unless the Reds are going to trade Heisey or Sappelt.



PART II - Closer
a. Trade a CF for Drew Storen. Preferably Chris Heisey or Dave Sappelt. Add minor leaguers if necessary.
b. Sign Coco if we cannot get Storen.

I'm fine with this. Get 'ur done.


PART III - The Rotation
a. Sign Hiroki Kuroda to a 1-year deal.
b. Go to war with what we have if you can't sign Kuroda. (I don't forsee another Latos-like deal for Gonzalez, Shields, etc.)

Latos, Cueto, Leake, Arroyo, Kuroda(?).......what do you do with Bailey?

Because I think signing Kuroda is impossible, but would love to have him, my proposal is to trade Bailey/Heisey for Wandy Rodriguez, with the catch being the Reds seriously upping payroll. But then again, they'd have to up it to sign Kuroda anyway.

corkedbat
12-19-2011, 06:06 PM
I'd be willing to offer Stubbs/Hesey and Massett/Ondrusek (might go to Wood intead of the reliever if I had to) for Soria (and a Class A prospect if I include Wood). Same for Storen or A. Bailey. I don't want Coco back at any price.

Benihana
12-19-2011, 06:06 PM
I'm okay with Beltran. Don't see the point of Seth Smith unless the Reds are going to trade Heisey or Sappelt.

See 2a, I'm shopping Heisey or Sappelt hard for Storen.


Latos, Cueto, Leake, Arroyo, Kuroda(?).......what do you do with Bailey?

Because I think signing Kuroda is impossible, but would love to have him, my proposal is to trade Bailey/Heisey for Wandy Rodriguez, with the catch being the Reds seriously upping payroll. But then again, they'd have to up it to sign Kuroda anyway.

I'm not sure how much of an upgrade Wandy would be over Bailey, but he'd certainly cost a heck of a lot more. No thanks.

Kuroda would give the Reds an established arm to team with Latos and Cueto to carry us through the postseason. Plus he wouldn't hamper the budget beyond this year (he wants a 1 year deal). Having one SP too many is never a bad thing. Injuries happen. If they don't, you can always trade to address a need. What happens if LF doesn't pan out? Or Cozart or Mesoraco really struggle? After the Latos trade, Reds can't afford to ride out a serious weakness in the lineup this year like they did with Janish last year.

RANDY IN INDY
12-19-2011, 06:21 PM
This is going to be hard to follow for news.

Boss-Hog
12-19-2011, 06:26 PM
This is going to be hard to follow for news.
I agree but the other thread was becoming too much work because some people couldn't follow some basic instructions.

mdccclxix
12-19-2011, 06:28 PM
Too funny that the Rumors/News thread didn't have any Latos trade stuff in it, but lots of comments along the way.

RANDY IN INDY
12-19-2011, 06:45 PM
Now you will probably get a new thread for every hot rumor. I don't understand what was so hard about following simple instructions. Sheesh

AtomicDumpling
12-19-2011, 07:34 PM
This is going to be hard to follow for news.

It sure makes the site a lot less useful, at least for me. Redszone used to be a great place to come and read all the stories from various places about the Reds, but then it was decided to allow only snippets of the stories. That caused a large decline in the usefullness of the site. Now we have to filter through 900+ opinions in a discussion thread to find the real news stories and insider updates. I understand it takes some effort to moderate the news thread but that is what moderators are for. :laugh: Just delete the posts of those who feel compelled to cram their opinions in a news thread. If the mods are too busy maybe additional moderators could be enlisted? Having one news thread also helps to prevent having a brand new thread created for every news story or rumor, which means there will be fewer threads to moderate.

Captain Hook
12-19-2011, 08:08 PM
It sure makes the site a lot less useful, at least for me. Redszone used to be a great place to come and read all the stories from various places about the Reds, but then it was decided to allow only snippets of the stories. That caused a large decline in the usefullness of the site. Now we have to filter through 900+ opinions in a discussion thread to find the real news stories and insider updates. I understand it takes some effort to moderate the news thread but that is what moderators are for. :laugh: Just delete the posts of those who feel compelled to cram their opinions in a news thread. If the mods are too busy maybe additional moderators could be enlisted? Having one news thread also helps to prevent having a brand new thread created for every news story or rumor, which means there will be fewer threads to moderate.

How hard is it to delete a post when there was only 2 or 3 a day in the thread?

I know I was enjoying the ability to quickly jump on RZ to find out if I've missed something along with being able to see the latest rumor.Like I said, there wasn't much action there but it served it's purpose.

Boss-Hog
12-19-2011, 08:20 PM
Fine, we'll reinstitute it, but it is irritating that some people can't follow a clear, easy to follow request.

Caveman Techie
12-19-2011, 09:21 PM
I know it's frustrating Boss. Half the time whenever someone would start their discussions in the News Only thread I'd start a rebuttal but then realize I'd be part of the problem then.

I really do like having the News Only thread though, it makes it much easier to scan for the links than a 60 page thread.

redsmetz
12-19-2011, 09:29 PM
I know it's frustrating Boss. Half the time whenever someone would start their discussions in the News Only thread I'd start a rebuttal but then realize I'd be part of the problem then.

I really do like having the News Only thread though, it makes it much easier to scan for the links than a 60 page thread.

This is what happened with me once. When is the reminder, I realized what I'd done and went back and deleted it. It's just the impulse in responding to a post. Glad the thread is back to active.

757690
12-19-2011, 09:38 PM
One idea could be that if you want to respond to a post in the news only thread, copy and paste it into the discussion thread, then discuss it. It also would be helpful if anyone who posts news in the news only thread also posted it in the discussion thread.

Boss-Hog
12-19-2011, 09:53 PM
One idea could be that if you want to respond to a post in the news only thread, copy and paste it into the discussion thread, then discuss it. It also would be helpful if anyone who posts news in the news only thread also posted it in the discussion thread.

I like this idea.

corkedbat
12-20-2011, 01:58 AM
Several interesting items in this mlBTR link. Discussions about several Reds presumed targets. The most interesting may be the sixth item down 9at the time of this post), discussing the Cards discussions with Coco Crisp.

The author, Yahoo's Steve Henson (on Twitter), seems to think that if the Cards were to come to an terms with Crisp, it might take them out of the Beltran chase. Doesn't necessarily mean the Reds would sign him, but i'd like to see him stay out of the Division.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

corkedbat
12-20-2011, 02:01 AM
One idea could be that if you want to respond to a post in the news only thread, copy and paste it into the discussion thread, then discuss it. It also would be helpful if anyone who posts news in the news only thread also posted it in the discussion thread.

i just by-passed the news thread all together. Too unwieldy and confusing. i'd see someone talking about a deal or player over here and have to go over there and back-track to see the "news" they were referring to.

membengal
12-20-2011, 07:52 AM
Re: the latest addition to the news thread, that the Reds are kicking the tires on Cody Ross...please, no. We already have Cody Ross in LF with Heisey, why would they spend their limited supply of money on what they already have?

RedlegJake
12-20-2011, 08:30 AM
Re: the latest addition to the news thread, that the Reds are kicking the tires on Cody Ross...please, no. We already have Cody Ross in LF with Heisey, why would they spend their limited supply of money on what they already have?

I agree, Mem, if they're going to spend on an outfielder none of the available FA choices are better than what we already have except for going all in and getting Beltran.

Now in trades I think Seth Smith is interesting given his splits if he was used properly, in a platoon capacity.

And I'd love to pry Jason Heyward from the Braves if they are truly down on him but I don't know if we have the chips left to do that - not the ones that would fit for them anyway. I know there are some who don't like him because of last season's slump but I think they're nuts - I see a future slugging machine in Heyward, who simply has adjustments to make from last season but he'll make them and in GAB he'd be a monster.

Vottomatic
12-20-2011, 09:10 AM
I'm not sure how much of an upgrade Wandy would be over Bailey, but he'd certainly cost a heck of a lot more. No thanks.

Kuroda would give the Reds an established arm to team with Latos and Cueto to carry us through the postseason. Plus he wouldn't hamper the budget beyond this year (he wants a 1 year deal). Having one SP too many is never a bad thing. Injuries happen. If they don't, you can always trade to address a need. What happens if LF doesn't pan out? Or Cozart or Mesoraco really struggle? After the Latos trade, Reds can't afford to ride out a serious weakness in the lineup this year like they did with Janish last year.

Back to your comments on Wandy.

Kuroda made $12M last year. He certainly has done nothing to deserve a lesser contract, and is probably looking for a small raise. But let's consider if you could get Kuroda for $12M for 2 years = $24M. According to Cot's, Wandy is signed for 2 more years at $10.5M (2012) and $13.5M (2013). That's $24M. He does have a buy out or option for 2014. Wandy has posted a sub-4.00 e.r.a. each of the last 3 seasons. Bailey has yet to go below 4.00 in any season. So, it is an upgrade. And it wouldn't cost anymore than Kuroda. I doubt Kuroda signs for 1 season. And it's been reported that he wants to stay on the West Coast and probably for a slight raise. Therefore, Wandy is more obtainable, costs about the same or less, and would only require Bailey and some prospects in trade (most likely).........and Bailey is the odd man out if you trade for Wandy. It all makes sense except for are the Reds willing to add payroll for another improvement in the starting pitching? You'd only have Wandy for 2 seasons. Not a bad situation.

Edd Roush
12-20-2011, 09:47 AM
Back to your comments on Wandy.

Kuroda made $12M last year. He certainly has done nothing to deserve a lesser contract, and is probably looking for a small raise. But let's consider if you could get Kuroda for $12M for 2 years = $24M. According to Cot's, Wandy is signed for 2 more years at $10.5M (2012) and $13.5M (2013). That's $24M. He does have a buy out or option for 2014. Wandy has posted a sub-4.00 e.r.a. each of the last 3 seasons. Bailey has yet to go below 4.00 in any season. So, it is an upgrade. And it wouldn't cost anymore than Kuroda. I doubt Kuroda signs for 1 season. And it's been reported that he wants to stay on the West Coast and probably for a slight raise. Therefore, Wandy is more obtainable, costs about the same or less, and would only require Bailey and some prospects in trade (most likely).........and Bailey is the odd man out if you trade for Wandy. It all makes sense except for are the Reds willing to add payroll for another improvement in the starting pitching? You'd only have Wandy for 2 seasons. Not a bad situation.

I know this comment was directed at Benihana, but I can't help but to respond...

Why is past ERA all that you are concerned about? Past ERA certainly has some bearing on future ERA, but there is no direct correlation.

You have to look at peripherals when looking at how good a pitcher is. Homer Bailey's BB:9 has come down drastically each of the past two years. Homer's K/9 has remained above league average. His HR/9 is what killed him last year, but it was not Arroyo-level bad. Bailey is pretty much in line with Wandy's peripherals.

What other than past ERA leads you to believe that Wandy is worth $8 million more a year?

Vottomatic
12-20-2011, 10:09 AM
I know this comment was directed at Benihana, but I can't help but to respond...

Why is past ERA all that you are concerned about? Past ERA certainly has some bearing on future ERA, but there is no direct correlation.

You have to look at peripherals when looking at how good a pitcher is. Homer Bailey's BB:9 has come down drastically each of the past two years. Homer's K/9 has remained above league average. His HR/9 is what killed him last year, but it was not Arroyo-level bad. Bailey is pretty much in line with Wandy's peripherals.

What other than past ERA leads you to believe that Wandy is worth $8 million more a year?

Every year I read Bill James projections and RARELY do they pan out.

So many people go on potential. I go on proven past credentials. And not one year.

Stupid contracts are based on one year of great production, like Jayson Werth in a contract year. Boras has the Nationals straddled with that contract through like 2016 or 2017 where he'll be making a ridiculous $20+M a year. That would be like signing a ridiculous contract for Matt Kemp right now based on one good year (although I think he has arrived). I like to see a pattern of solid production. Sure........age can take over.......and other factors that result in declining numbers. But Wandy has posted a good e.r.a. the last 3 years while pitching for a crappy team. Many pitchers stress over lack of run support for them or poor defense behind them and it affects their pitching. Wandy has been solid.

Bailey has yet to live up to his potential. And he comes up with these twinges and pains here and there where they have to shut him down. If he's still a Red, I hope this is the year he puts it all together. But how long have we been saying that? I think he has the potential to break out. He has the stuff. But so did Volquez and other Reds pitchers. It's one thing to say he should be this good and another to say he is this good.

Wandy
2009 33 starts, 3.02 e.r.a., .250 BAA
2010 32 starts, 3.60 e.r.a., .250 BAA
2011 30 starts, 3.49 e.r.a., .251 BAA

Homer
2009 20 starts, 4.53 e.r.a., .266 BAA
2010 19 starts, 4.46 e.r.a., .260 BAA
2011 22 starts, 4.43 e.r.a., .264 BAA

Analysis:
Both have pretty consistent numbers. Wandy's are better than Homer's. And Wandy gives up almost a full run less per game while hitters hit slightly worse against him than Homer. Homer has pitched for the better team, better offense, and better defense the last 3 years, yet Wandy has posted better numbers. And Wandy has averaged 30 starts while Homer seems to get injured alot and not make 30 starts.

The only reason to keep Homer is he is still cheap and under control, and he'll be 26 years old in May.

I posted on another thread that the Brewers and Cardinals each have 4 starters posting e.r.a.'s in the 3.00's. Reds will have 3 pitchers (Latos, Cueto, Leake), not 4. And based on Arroyo's 2011 season, both the Brewers and Cards have better #5 starters to match up with Arroyo.

I just wanted to even things out and give the Reds another pitcher who is going to battle better than Bailey, and I think Wandy gives them that.

This is all opinion. This is mine.

Edit: Your question - "Why is past ERA all that you are concerned about? Past ERA certainly has some bearing on future ERA, but there is no direct correlation."

Sure, you cannot predict a guy coming down with Mono or some injury that hampers him all season. Or getting hurt in February playing pick-up basketball and it lingering through June. So many factors affect a guys production, whether it be hitting or pitching. If Wandy is in a car wreck this offseason, it may affect his back or something like that. And he might not pitch that well. A guy can throw a pitch and twinge his shoulder and be out for a month and then not quite be himself after that. I get all that. Stuff happens. But I look at the most recent 3 year stretch. And while I posted e.r.a. and batting average against, I also look at WHIP, K's per 9IP, BB's per 9IP........I just don't feel like posting all that stuff. Some pitchers start walking guys less, but start striking them out less too. Cueto for instance. They learn to pitch and rely on their defense more so they can go farther into the game. All kinds of reasons. I think hits per IP is important too. And groundball rate, etc.

Vottomatic
12-20-2011, 10:49 AM
Good trade proposal idea from mth123 off another thread:


Drew Stubbs, Homer Bailey and Logan Ondrusek for Drew Storen and Michael Morse.
Denis Phipps and Jeremy Horst for Matt Thornton and a little cash toward his 2013 contract.
Win World Series

Phillips 2B
Heisey/Sappelt CF
Votto 1B
Morse LF
Bruce RF
Rolen/Francisco 3B
Mesoraco/Hanigan C
Cozart SS

Cairo and Janish or Frazier round out the bench.

Latos
Cueto
Leake
Arroyo
Wood
Chapman

Lecure
Masset
Bray
Arredondo
Thornton
Storen


This is a Latos-type trade in that both Storen and Morse are relatively cheap. Morse is arb eligible according to Cot's. Storen is penciled in as the Nats closer. Nats have 7 potential starting pitchers listed on their depth chart in the running for the starting rotation. I don't think they need Bailey. I think Stubbs and Ondrusek, definitely. Stubbs takes over CF, Werth stays in RF, and Bernadina moves over to LF, and they get their true young CFer that they are desperately looking for. I'm thinking they might be interested in Neftali Soto (1B), to replace Morse at 1B. Soto isn't quite ready, but gives them a solid prospect in triple A to eventually take over 1B.

Stubbs, Ondrusek, Soto, Phipps, Barnhart for Storen and Morse. It solves the Reds last 2 problems - closer and RH power clean-up hitting LFer. I wondered if they'd want Rolen and move him to 1B to replace Morse? But I doubt they would do that. It would save the Reds some more money and give them more payroll flexibility.

HokieRed
12-20-2011, 11:49 AM
Good trade proposal idea from mth123 off another thread:



This is a Latos-type trade in that both Storen and Morse are relatively cheap. Morse is arb eligible according to Cot's. Storen is penciled in as the Nats closer. Nats have 7 potential starting pitchers listed on their depth chart in the running for the starting rotation. I don't think they need Bailey. I think Stubbs and Ondrusek, definitely. Stubbs takes over CF, Werth stays in RF, and Bernadina moves over to LF, and they get their true young CFer that they are desperately looking for. I'm thinking they might be interested in Neftali Soto (1B), to replace Morse at 1B. Soto isn't quite ready, but gives them a solid prospect in triple A to eventually take over 1B.

Stubbs, Ondrusek, Soto, Phipps, Barnhart for Storen and Morse. It solves the Reds last 2 problems - closer and RH power clean-up hitting LFer. I wondered if they'd want Rolen and move him to 1B to replace Morse? But I doubt they would do that. It would save the Reds some more money and give them more payroll flexibility.

A number of things occur to me.
1. Nats just signed Cameron.
2. Anybody would want Bailey--our Bailey--in the right deal.
3. Morse is a .905 Major Leaguer last year, Storen a cheap dominant closer.
You're not going to get them for a 200 K CF, a middle of the bullpen guy, and 3 prospects who are nowhere near being ML ready. Offer is, IMHO, way too low.

AmarilloRed
12-20-2011, 12:18 PM
A number of things occur to me.
3. Morse is a .905 Major Leaguer last year, Storen a cheap dominant closer.
You're not going to get them for a 200 K CF, a middle of the bullpen guy, and 3 prospects who are nowhere near being ML ready. Offer is, IMHO, way too low.

I might normally agree with you, but the Reds are the only team looking for a closer. Boston was looking, but they got a reliever from Houston. The price for Storen will be lower than it normally would.

RichRed
12-20-2011, 12:26 PM
I might normally agree with you, but the Reds are the only team looking for a closer. Boston was looking, but they got a reliever from Houston. The price for Storen will be lower than it normally would.

Also, Morse will be 30 at the start of the 2012 season, with only one full year of playing time - albeit a productive one - under his belt. Was it somewhat lucky or a breakout? Maybe the cost for Morse won't be through the roof either.

dougdirt
12-20-2011, 12:29 PM
Every year I read Bill James projections and RARELY do they pan out.

So many people go on potential. I go on proven past credentials. And not one year.


Bill James generally has the worst projections, but even so, his projections are based off of past performance like all of the other projections systems are (Zips/Marcels/Pecota/Chone). Each has their own formulas. They are all very good at projecting guys who have long track records. They are all very hit and miss with guys with short track records/young players.

Dan
12-20-2011, 04:07 PM
http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2011/12/19/prices-keep-reds-on-sidelines/


Jocketty said the Reds may go further down the list. Rick Ankiel and Ryan Ludwick remain unsigned.

Love love LOVE the idea of Ankiel as a 4th or 5th outfielder. Great arm, good power, should play well as long as he's not over-exposed.


“We’re looking at bullpen guys, possible closers,” he said. “We’re also looking at outfield help through trade.”

So who would we speculate might be available through trade? Two names off the top of my head are Carlos Quentin and Martin Prado. Another interesting name is Alex Gordon. Who else?

reds44
12-20-2011, 04:08 PM
Quentin would be a great target.

HokieRed
12-20-2011, 04:38 PM
I don't want Rick Ankiel, with his .659 OPS from last year, anywhere on our depth chart.

LoganBuck
12-20-2011, 04:59 PM
I still think that Walt is dealing with the Chicago Pale Hose. They have bullpen arms, starters, and outfielders available. There is a match to be made.

Dan
12-20-2011, 05:01 PM
I will toss out another name, just to make people squirm: Carlos Lee, with Houston covering most of his salary.

cinreds21
12-20-2011, 05:02 PM
I just looked at Thornton's numbers. I liked him but all his stats went up this past year (in a bad way). I think he would cost too much. I'll pass.

And ehhh on Carlos Lee.

LoganBuck
12-20-2011, 05:41 PM
I just looked at Thornton's numbers. I liked him but all his stats went up this past year (in a bad way). I think he would cost too much. I'll pass.

And ehhh on Carlos Lee.

Checked Thornton again, he had a brutal March/April when they made him the closer. He was much better after he was put back into middle relief. Problem is he is being paid like a closer, at $6mil, for both 2012 and 2013.

RedlegJake
12-20-2011, 06:08 PM
http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2011/12/19/prices-keep-reds-on-sidelines/
Another interesting name is Alex Gordon. Who else?

Being from Kansas City I can tell you to forget that - if you want Gordon you'd have to back up the prospect truck. KC would want a ransom for him now that he's finally turned it around. He's been promoted too long as the face of the franchise and finally made it look good. He's not expensive enough yet for them to sell off cheap and/or stupidly (it'll come - this is the Royals).

Joseph
12-20-2011, 06:17 PM
I'm kind of tired about the 'mystery team' in seemingly each negotiation. Just speculate or even say something like another unknown team. Mystery team seems contrived and frankly is tired already.

Edd Roush
12-20-2011, 06:26 PM
Every year I read Bill James projections and RARELY do they pan out.

So many people go on potential. I go on proven past credentials. And not one year.

Stupid contracts are based on one year of great production, like Jayson Werth in a contract year. Boras has the Nationals straddled with that contract through like 2016 or 2017 where he'll be making a ridiculous $20+M a year. That would be like signing a ridiculous contract for Matt Kemp right now based on one good year (although I think he has arrived). I like to see a pattern of solid production. Sure........age can take over.......and other factors that result in declining numbers. But Wandy has posted a good e.r.a. the last 3 years while pitching for a crappy team. Many pitchers stress over lack of run support for them or poor defense behind them and it affects their pitching. Wandy has been solid.

Bailey has yet to live up to his potential. And he comes up with these twinges and pains here and there where they have to shut him down. If he's still a Red, I hope this is the year he puts it all together. But how long have we been saying that? I think he has the potential to break out. He has the stuff. But so did Volquez and other Reds pitchers. It's one thing to say he should be this good and another to say he is this good.

Wandy
2009 33 starts, 3.02 e.r.a., .250 BAA
2010 32 starts, 3.60 e.r.a., .250 BAA
2011 30 starts, 3.49 e.r.a., .251 BAA

Homer
2009 20 starts, 4.53 e.r.a., .266 BAA
2010 19 starts, 4.46 e.r.a., .260 BAA
2011 22 starts, 4.43 e.r.a., .264 BAA

Analysis:
Both have pretty consistent numbers. Wandy's are better than Homer's. And Wandy gives up almost a full run less per game while hitters hit slightly worse against him than Homer. Homer has pitched for the better team, better offense, and better defense the last 3 years, yet Wandy has posted better numbers. And Wandy has averaged 30 starts while Homer seems to get injured alot and not make 30 starts.

The only reason to keep Homer is he is still cheap and under control, and he'll be 26 years old in May.

I posted on another thread that the Brewers and Cardinals each have 4 starters posting e.r.a.'s in the 3.00's. Reds will have 3 pitchers (Latos, Cueto, Leake), not 4. And based on Arroyo's 2011 season, both the Brewers and Cards have better #5 starters to match up with Arroyo.

I just wanted to even things out and give the Reds another pitcher who is going to battle better than Bailey, and I think Wandy gives them that.

This is all opinion. This is mine.

Edit: Your question - "Why is past ERA all that you are concerned about? Past ERA certainly has some bearing on future ERA, but there is no direct correlation."

Sure, you cannot predict a guy coming down with Mono or some injury that hampers him all season. Or getting hurt in February playing pick-up basketball and it lingering through June. So many factors affect a guys production, whether it be hitting or pitching. If Wandy is in a car wreck this offseason, it may affect his back or something like that. And he might not pitch that well. A guy can throw a pitch and twinge his shoulder and be out for a month and then not quite be himself after that. I get all that. Stuff happens. But I look at the most recent 3 year stretch. And while I posted e.r.a. and batting average against, I also look at WHIP, K's per 9IP, BB's per 9IP........I just don't feel like posting all that stuff. Some pitchers start walking guys less, but start striking them out less too. Cueto for instance. They learn to pitch and rely on their defense more so they can go farther into the game. All kinds of reasons. I think hits per IP is important too. And groundball rate, etc.


Going back to your point about how long did we wait on Volquez and why should we do the same with Bailey, Homer should be given patience because he has shown he can improve his control, unlike Volquez. I mean his BB rate has gone from 4.13 in 2009 to 3.3 in 2010 to 2.25 last year. His K rate was also above 7 last year. Therefore, Homer is very good with the two things he can control, how many guys will have no chance to get on base (I strike them out) and how many guys do I let on base without putting the ball in play (I walk them).

Yes, Wandy has had a better ERA (and has been a better pitcher than Homer) the last three years. I am not arguing that. Homer just "outpitched" his ERA last year. He was better than a typical pitcher with a 4.43 ERA. His FIP was right around 4.

Bill James' predictions may not be the best in the business. That being said, he uses more analysis than just what BAA was last year and what their past ERA was. I think Wandy may even be a better bet to succeed than Homer next year. In fact, I wouldn't argue trading Bailey for Wandy straight up if money wasn't an issue. However, in Cincinnati, money is currently an issue.

I don't want to blow all of my budget space on what is a better bet but could amount to a negligible difference. I am not trying to argue that Bailey has been or is the better pitcher right now. I am just trying to say that Homer is likely to put up a better ERA next year if his HR/9 normalizes and he maintains his stellar K/BB ratio.

Homer won't be the Reds best pitcher next year. However, I do believe he will be around league average next year and when you can get that for less than league average starting pitching salaries, you have to go with that when putting together a team on a budget.

Vottomatic
12-20-2011, 07:24 PM
Going back to your point about how long did we wait on Volquez and why should we do the same with Bailey,

I didn't say anything about how long we waited on Volquez. I'm not a Volquez fan anyway and I'm glad he's gone.


Homer should be given patience because he has shown he can improve his control, unlike Volquez. I mean his BB rate has gone from 4.13 in 2009 to 3.3 in 2010 to 2.25 last year. His K rate was also above 7 last year. Therefore, Homer is very good with the two things he can control, how many guys will have no chance to get on base (I strike them out) and how many guys do I let on base without putting the ball in play (I walk them).

If you look at his actual stats, his walk decrease and strikeout rate increase aren't really that noticeable or significant. Especially since he only pitches 100 to 130 innings per year because he's hurt all the tiime.


Yes, Wandy has had a better ERA (and has been a better pitcher than Homer) the last three years. I am not arguing that. Homer just "outpitched" his ERA last year. He was better than a typical pitcher with a 4.43 ERA. His FIP was right around 4.

Bill James' predictions may not be the best in the business. That being said, he uses more analysis than just what BAA was last year and what their past ERA was.

Yeah, he uses even more analysis and still sucks on his predictions. Maybe he shouldn't waste his time. :D



I think Wandy may even be a better bet to succeed than Homer next year. In fact, I wouldn't argue trading Bailey for Wandy straight up if money wasn't an issue. However, in Cincinnati, money is currently an issue.

I don't want to blow all of my budget space on what is a better bet but could amount to a negligible difference.

That negligible difference you spoke of is almost a run allowed per game more by Bailey. Doesn't seem so negligible to me. :thumbup:


I am not trying to argue that Bailey has been or is the better pitcher right now. I am just trying to say that Homer is likely to put up a better ERA next year if his HR/9 normalizes and he maintains his stellar K/BB ratio.

Homer won't be the Reds best pitcher next year. However, I do believe he will be around league average next year and when you can get that for less than league average starting pitching salaries, you have to go with that when putting together a team on a budget.

Bailey hasn't started 30 games in a season ever. He has been full time with the big league club the last 3 seasons and can't stay healthy. Wandy may get injured this year but his track record shows a guy making 30-32 starts per season. Bailey's shows a guy that can't make more than 20 starts per season.

If I'm going all in now to win this thing, I don't count on Bailey and I make a play for Wandy. And the Reds should raise payroll more than $85M. They just should go for it. Now is the time. I get tired of the bandaid patches and "hoping" they catch lightning in a bottle.

reds44
12-20-2011, 11:09 PM
http://mlbbuzz.yardbarker.com/blog/mlbbuzz/reds_cubs_talking_trade/8859868?new_post=true

Travis Wood for Sean Marshall being discussed? I would hope the Cubs would have to send more, maybe Marlon Byrd? Soriano if they ate his contract?

RedLegSuperStar
12-20-2011, 11:21 PM
http://mlbbuzz.yardbarker.com/blog/mlbbuzz/reds_cubs_talking_trade/8859868?new_post=true

Travis Wood for Sean Marshall being discussed? I would hope the Cubs would have to send more, maybe Marlon Byrd? Soriano if they ate his contract?

I'd actually bet Theo would love to rid himself of Soriano.. Risky but if they ate that contract then the Reds would be dumb to balk at it. They'd have to cover about 80%-90% of whats left in the deal. Maybe the Reds toss in a mid level prospect like Matt Klinker or Kyle Lotzkar or even Chris Valaika

Plus Plus
12-20-2011, 11:23 PM
I didn't say anything about how long we waited on Volquez. I'm not a Volquez fan anyway and I'm glad he's gone.



If you look at his actual stats, his walk decrease and strikeout rate increase aren't really that noticeable or significant. Especially since he only pitches 100 to 130 innings per year because he's hurt all the tiime.



Yeah, he uses even more analysis and still sucks on his predictions. Maybe he shouldn't waste his time. :D




That negligible difference you spoke of is almost a run allowed per game more by Bailey. Doesn't seem so negligible to me. :thumbup:



Bailey hasn't started 30 games in a season ever. He has been full time with the big league club the last 3 seasons and can't stay healthy. Wandy may get injured this year but his track record shows a guy making 30-32 starts per season. Bailey's shows a guy that can't make more than 20 starts per season.

If I'm going all in now to win this thing, I don't count on Bailey and I make a play for Wandy. And the Reds should raise payroll more than $85M. They just should go for it. Now is the time. I get tired of the bandaid patches and "hoping" they catch lightning in a bottle.

If I remember correctly, the Astros' ownership is adamantly against trading within the division. I believe that this was a reason that the Pence trade to the Reds did not happen.

HeatherC1212
12-20-2011, 11:23 PM
I don't want to lose Travis Wood for Sean Marshall. Travis had a rough year last year but I still think he can be very effective for the Reds either in the bullpen or as that extra starter a team always needs at some point during the season.

IslandRed
12-21-2011, 12:51 AM
If I remember correctly, the Astros' ownership is adamantly against trading within the division. I believe that this was a reason that the Pence trade to the Reds did not happen.

New owner, new GM, soon to be in a new league. So who knows?

Vottomatic
12-21-2011, 08:27 AM
Stubbs for Morse.

Wood for Marshall or Marmol.

Reds finished with the offseason and ready to move on and win the world series. :D

Dan
12-21-2011, 08:53 AM
Stubbs for Morse.

Wood for Marshall or Marmol.

Reds finished with the offseason and ready to move on and win the world series. :D

Wood+ for Marshall (with 2 yr extension)

Stubbs+ for Storen

Sign Beltran (3yrs/$10million)

Reds finished with the offseason and ready to move on and win the world series. :D

Benihana
12-21-2011, 09:36 AM
Wood+ for Marshall (with 2 yr extension)

Stubbs+ for Storen

Sign Beltran (3yrs/$10million)

Reds finished with the offseason and ready to move on and win the world series. :D

I prefer this plan

PuffyPig
12-21-2011, 09:42 AM
I don't want to lose Travis Wood for Sean Marshall. Travis had a rough year last year but I still think he can be very effective for the Reds either in the bullpen or as that extra starter a team always needs at some point during the season.


You can't get a pitcher like Marshall without giving up something of value.

Mario-Rijo
12-21-2011, 09:51 AM
New owner, new GM, soon to be in a new league. So who knows?

And that new GM is Luhnow who was one of if not the main reasons Walt was ousted in St. Louis, they had a major falling out over control of drafting when he was GM and Luhnow was Scouting Director. I don't now how much dealing they are gonna be able to do.

mdccclxix
12-21-2011, 10:52 AM
Wood + 2 prospects (hopefully of the Valaika variety) for Marshall + 3 million

Cordero = 2 years/10 million (3 in 2012, 7 in 2013)

Beltran = 2 years/22 million


BP
Cozart
Votto
Beltran
Bruce
Rolen
Mez
Stubbs

Latos
Cueto
Leake
Arroyo
Bailey

Chapman in AAA

Cordero
Marshall
Massett
Bray
Ondrusek
Arredondo

mdccclxix
12-21-2011, 10:55 AM
I wonder if Chapman does really well in ST, if Oakland would do a Bailey for Bailey swap, then don't sign Coco, use that money on a Willis type or 2 to backup the rotation in AAA. Just an idea. I still think Beltran would be the biggest improvement to this team. Oswalt would be great, but then you almost have to trade Bailey or move him to the pen. Beltran would only bump Sappelt to AAA or the 5th OF spot.

mdccclxix
12-21-2011, 11:09 AM
Hopefully this isn't too tangential:


The Braves made a run at Orioles outfielder Adam Jones earlier this month, according to Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun. Connolly reports that Atlanta offered Jair Jurrjens, Martin Prado, and a pitching prospect for Jones, but the O's "didn't bite," indicating how much they value their center fielder.

How ya like that? A CFer with power, .750 OPS, and 2 years of team control...For the vaunted Jair Jurrjens AND Prado? NO??!?!?

C'mon Walt, get Stubbs out on the market, see what happens.

Edd Roush
12-21-2011, 11:29 AM
I didn't say anything about how long we waited on Volquez. I'm not a Volquez fan anyway and I'm glad he's gone.



If you look at his actual stats, his walk decrease and strikeout rate increase aren't really that noticeable or significant. Especially since he only pitches 100 to 130 innings per year because he's hurt all the tiime.



Yeah, he uses even more analysis and still sucks on his predictions. Maybe he shouldn't waste his time. :D




That negligible difference you spoke of is almost a run allowed per game more by Bailey. Doesn't seem so negligible to me. :thumbup:



Bailey hasn't started 30 games in a season ever. He has been full time with the big league club the last 3 seasons and can't stay healthy. Wandy may get injured this year but his track record shows a guy making 30-32 starts per season. Bailey's shows a guy that can't make more than 20 starts per season.

If I'm going all in now to win this thing, I don't count on Bailey and I make a play for Wandy. And the Reds should raise payroll more than $85M. They just should go for it. Now is the time. I get tired of the bandaid patches and "hoping" they catch lightning in a bottle.

The only thing I strongly agree with in your post is that a 1 BB:9 decrease per year is undoubtedly significant. Homer is definitely improving his control. His outpitched his ERA significantly over the past two years according to his FIP. I have already given you that Wandy has been a better pitcher than Bailey and is more likely to put up a better ERA than Bailey. I just don't think you are giving his improving control enough credit. We aren't talking about a Homer Bailey who is walking 4+ guys per 9 innings. We are talking about a guy who has average to above average control. Homer hasn't been lucky with injuries. That being said, Homer is an athlete and I think he is as likely as Wandy to put up 30 starts next year. I just think that we have very limited dollars to improve the team and the improvement of Wandy over Homer Bailey isn't as much as you think it is.

klw
12-21-2011, 11:31 AM
Hopefully this isn't too tangential:



How ya like that? A CFer with power, .750 OPS, and 2 years of team control...For the vaunted Jair Jurrjens AND Prado? NO??!?!?

C'mon Walt, get Stubbs out on the market, see what happens.

oops I hadn't checked in on this thread in a day and was creating a thread on this comparison while you put this up.

buckeyenut
12-21-2011, 11:59 AM
Hopefully this isn't too tangential:



How ya like that? A CFer with power, .750 OPS, and 2 years of team control...For the vaunted Jair Jurrjens AND Prado? NO??!?!?

C'mon Walt, get Stubbs out on the market, see what happens.
So how would you compare Jones and Stubbs? Would ATL offer Jurrjens and Prado and a prospect for Stubbs? How does the money work out in that move?

I am very much against trading Stubbs, but my initial reaction on that deal without a lot of research is that I would pull the trigger in a heartbeat.

mdccclxix
12-21-2011, 12:02 PM
So how would you compare Jones and Stubbs? Would ATL offer Jurrjens and Prado and a prospect for Stubbs? How does the money work out in that move?

I am very much against trading Stubbs, but my initial reaction on that deal without a lot of research is that I would pull the trigger in a heartbeat.

Prado and Jurrjens both made about 3 mill last year and are in arb 2 stage in 2012.

Vottomatic
12-21-2011, 05:47 PM
Hopefully this isn't too tangential:



How ya like that? A CFer with power, .750 OPS, and 2 years of team control...For the vaunted Jair Jurrjens AND Prado? NO??!?!?

C'mon Walt, get Stubbs out on the market, see what happens.

I'd do that deal in a heartbeat. Jurrjens and Prado for Stubbs? Are you kidding me?

First I'd go to the Nats and make a proposal first, but let them know that there were talks with the Braves and we're going to revisit those talks if you're not interested.

savafan
12-23-2011, 12:55 PM
A post from our mysterious Twitter friend just moments ago:

JohnnySmith28 Johnny Smith
News coming soon. Reds will have at a minimum of one Coco on the roster, perhaps two

Mario-Rijo
12-23-2011, 01:08 PM
A post from our mysterious Twitter friend just moments ago:

JohnnySmith28 Johnny Smith
News coming soon. Reds will have at a minimum of one Coco on the roster, perhaps two

So we deal Sappelt and then sign Coco Crisp? Eww.... I don't want either Coco FWIW.

Joseph
12-23-2011, 01:10 PM
Crisp in LF eh? Have to look up his numbers and see how he fared laster few years. I certainly would love that fro in the OF though.

cinreds21
12-23-2011, 01:14 PM
Crisp in LF eh? Have to look up his numbers and see how he fared laster few years. I certainly would love that fro in the OF though.

He hit .264/314/379 last year. He did have 49 stolen bases and a nice 41/65 BB/K Ratio. He hasn't played left field since 2005 though.

savafan
12-23-2011, 01:20 PM
I was wondering who the other Coco was...

reds44
12-23-2011, 01:22 PM
So we deal Sappelt and then sign Coco Crisp? Eww.... I don't want either Coco FWIW.
I don't want Crisp either, but isn't Sappelt's ceiling Coco Crisp?

mdccclxix
12-23-2011, 01:25 PM
Crisp did hit RHP pretty well in Oakland last year and has been worth 2 WAR each of the last few seasons.

savafan
12-23-2011, 01:26 PM
I don't want Crisp either, but isn't Sappelt's ceiling Coco Crisp?

I kinda wish we had him back in the Gookie, Corky and Pokey days.

reds44
12-23-2011, 01:28 PM
I kinda wish we had him back in the Gookie, Corky and Pokey days.
I only want him if he promises to keep that awesom fro for the duration of his contract.

Mario-Rijo
12-23-2011, 01:29 PM
I don't want Crisp either, but isn't Sappelt's ceiling Coco Crisp?

I think his possibly likely ceiling is a younger version of Crisp but his ultimate ceiling is a better pure hitter IMO and not the all world hacker Crisp is. They both hack at what they like Sappelt is just capable of hacking at a better pitch to hit. Though Coco may have been a better defender/base runner than Dave will ever become but I think overall Sappelt is likely a better overall player when it is said and done.

Mario-Rijo
12-23-2011, 01:30 PM
Crisp did hit RHP pretty well in Oakland last year and has been worth 2 WAR each of the last few seasons.

And without looking I believe his luck was quite high last year.

reds44
12-23-2011, 01:30 PM
I think his possibly likely ceiling is a younger version of Crisp but his ultimate ceiling is a better pure hitter IMO and not the all world hacker Crisp is. They both hack at what they like Sappelt is just capable of hacking at a better pitch to hit. Though Coco may have been a better defender/base runner than Dave will ever become but I think overall Sappelt is likely a better overall player when it is said and done.
But Sappelt is also a questionable defender and a flat out bad baserunner. Lets be honest, the only real skill Sappelt has is his ability to hit, and when you're as small as him, your value takes a hit.

Scrap Irony
12-23-2011, 02:02 PM
I think his possibly likely ceiling is a younger version of Crisp but his ultimate ceiling is a better pure hitter IMO and not the all world hacker Crisp is. They both hack at what they like Sappelt is just capable of hacking at a better pitch to hit. Though Coco may have been a better defender/base runner than Dave will ever become but I think overall Sappelt is likely a better overall player when it is said and done.

If Crisp signs with Cincinnati, he'll be penciled in as the erstwhile #2 hitter, IMO. (In lineup constructions, that's probably the best spot for him as well.) He's got decent power that will play up in the GABP, decent patience (but his wOBA is almost entirely BA-driven), and should have a very good glove for LF. He can also steal a base and is a switch-hitter, which is something this offense needs, IMO.

Unfotunately, the offense is still short a cleanup hitter hitting between Votto and Bruce. This means Jocketty and company are hitching their wagon, once again, to Bruce's improvement as a hitter, and, to a lesser extent, hoping Mesoraco, Francscio, and Cozart are for real.

Third base is the wildcard here, IMO. If Francisco can hit for power and spell Rolen well enough that he can hit like the first half of 2010, the Reds offense could be very, very good. If not, they'll merely be above average. (That's what Votto presence in your lineup does.)

Phillips 2B
Crisp LF
Votto 1B
Bruce RF
Rolen/ Francisco 3B
Stubbs CF
Mesoraco/ Hanigan C
Cozart/ Theriot SS

The best thing about this lineup is that there aren't any apparent holes (assuming Cozart's power plays and he's willing to take the walks that come along with being the #8 hitter). Too, if Stubbs struggles, Heisey is there to take some starts; they may even form a kind of semi-platoon, especially since Crisp would be a great guy to make up the perceived lost step from Heisey to Stubbs defensively, as Heisey hits RH much more effectively than LF while Stubbs is just the opposite.

Frazier is now a likely fifth OF and backup corner IF bat, along with pop as a PH off the bench. He could take those 3B southpaw starts if Rolen's back or shoulder become problematic, keeping Francisco in against only righties. He could also allow Baker an option at 1B if Votto needs a blow.

mth123
12-23-2011, 03:53 PM
Not real high on Crisp. He was good in his mid 20s but the last three years have seen him injured, putting up part time numbers and finally an OPS below .700 last season. I think he's headed for Willy T territory.

klw
12-23-2011, 04:02 PM
A post from our mysterious Twitter friend just moments ago:

JohnnySmith28 Johnny Smith
News coming soon. Reds will have at a minimum of one Coco on the roster, perhaps two

Have any of his rumors actually come to fruition??/ I can't think of any. Not to mean that there wan't truth when he posted them.

Gallen5862
12-23-2011, 04:07 PM
The Reds 40 Man roster is not showing Brackman on it. Was it ever confirmed that Brackman's deal was a Major league deal?

LoganBuck
12-23-2011, 05:12 PM
The Reds 40 Man roster is not showing Brackman on it. Was it ever confirmed that Brackman's deal was a Major league deal?

It was reported both ways.

Tom Servo
12-23-2011, 05:38 PM
I believe Brackman's deal has yet to be made official, though it's likely just a matter of time and not some snafu.

savafan
12-23-2011, 05:48 PM
Have any of his rumors actually come to fruition??/ I can't think of any. Not to mean that there wan't truth when he posted them.

I honestly can't remember what any of his previous rumors were. :confused:

Plus Plus
12-23-2011, 06:30 PM
I honestly can't remember what any of his previous rumors were. :confused:

He rumored a three-way trade last deadline involving Ubaldo coming to the Reds. I think there was more than that, but I clearly remember that rumor.

Gallen5862
12-23-2011, 10:32 PM
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

Athletics Designate Landon Powell For Assignment
By Mike Axisa [December 23 at 6:57pm CST]
The Athletics have designated catcher Landon Powell for assignment, reports Susan Slusser of The San Francisco Chronicle (Twitter links).

The 29-year-old backstop is a .207/.284/.328 career hitter in 406 big league plate appearances. He has thrown out 29 of 73 attempted basestealers during his career, a stellar 39.7%.

Gallen5862
12-23-2011, 10:33 PM
Would Landon Powell be worth a waiver claim?

Gallen5862
12-23-2011, 10:43 PM
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

Within Sheldon's piece, he also reports that the Andrew Brackman signing is not yet official, but it should be done any day now. "I’m not sure what’s holding it up to be honest," said the GM

IslandRed
12-23-2011, 11:17 PM
Would Landon Powell be worth a waiver claim?

I don't think he's worth putting on the 40. I wouldn't be surprised to see someone like him brought in on a NRI deal and stashed in Louisville with Corky, though. One of the minor-league experts can correct me if need be, but I don't think we have much catching in the high minors with Mesoraco up and Grandal traded.

AmarilloRed
12-23-2011, 11:44 PM
Where does the Brandon Phillips extension sit after the two trades? I recall it was mentioned there would be something announced this week.

corkedbat
12-24-2011, 12:24 AM
Would Landon Powell be worth a waiver claim?

The Reds signed former Astros catcher Brian Espisito. They might sign another to help with the early ST load or possibly come to Cincy as a very temporary backup replacement if two from among the starters and Corky went down. Not much more than that for either - organizational filler at best.. A true 4A catcher might still be signed to a MiL deal to stash in L'Ville also.

RedlegJake
12-24-2011, 06:00 PM
They have also designated OFer Jai Miller. He hit 32 HRs last year w/ a .368 OPS in AAA.


That's a .368 OB%. w/ .956OPS.

I pasted this from the news thread because I wanted to comment on it and felt that belonged here rather than there.

Jai Miller has put up some impressive numbers like the 32 homers last year until you look at it closely and see its the PCL which inflates numbers a lot, he's 26, in younger years not in PCL he never touched .800 OPS but he has pushed it up every year and never has gotten a real shot. I dunno...I never trust PCL numbers for hitters but.....? Know anything about this guy Doug? I follow KC and evidently the Royals had him a couple years ago but I don't remember him.

cinreds21
12-24-2011, 06:50 PM
I know him. Real good guy. Athletic football player who the Marlins drafted in the 4th round of the 2003 draft. He hit around or below .200 for his first four minor league seasons until he got to Double-A then started to figure it out. He has decent pop and decent speed and would be nice depth in Louisville if an injury occurred.

dougdirt
12-24-2011, 07:39 PM
I know him. Real good guy. Athletic football player who the Marlins drafted in the 4th round of the 2003 draft. He hit around or below .200 for his first four minor league seasons until he got to Double-A then started to figure it out. He has decent pop and decent speed and would be nice depth in Louisville if an injury occurred.

He would be good depth for Louisville, but he is another one of those guys with good power who swings at anything. He has struck out in 30.7% of his plate appearances in the minors and 37.7% last season (at that rate, given Stubbs same amount of PA's, Miller would have K'd 257 times... in AAA).

Vottomatic
12-25-2011, 02:40 AM
I haven't been around Redszone much the past 24-48 hours. So if this has been posted, sorry. But I read on another board that the Reds may be signing Cordero and Coco Crisp. And that Stubbs may be involved in a trade coming soon.

Take it for what it's worth.

corkedbat
12-25-2011, 05:03 AM
There was a link to a tweet by a younger guy of dubious rep with some on this board. Something about the Reds maybe having "more than Coco on the roster this year."

RedLegSuperStar
12-28-2011, 02:37 PM
Jim Kelch said on Reds Hot Stove last night that WJ wont be making any moves this week theyll pick back up after the new year, he also mentioned the 2 priorities right now is

1.LF
2. Utility infielder

My guess is:

Trade with Colorado for Seth Smith

Sign Ryan Theriot.

What I'd do:

Sign Luke Scott/Ryan Ludwick
Sign Ronny Cedeno

Still have money left over to sign a Aardsma or Madson

camisadelgolf
12-28-2011, 06:40 PM
My guess is:

Trade with Colorado for Seth Smith

Sign Ryan Theriot.

What I'd do:

Sign Luke Scott/Ryan Ludwick
Sign Ronny Cedeno

Still have money left over to sign a Aardsma or Madson
I don't see the point in signing Cedeno when you already have Janish. Also, I wouldn't mind trading for Seth Smith, but I wouldn't do it until I knew there weren't options available who can put up similar numbers without costing prospects e.g. Cody Ross, Rick Ankiel, Pat Burrell, Coco Crisp, J.D. Drew, Andruw Jones, Ryan Ludwick, Luke Scott, et al.

mth123
12-28-2011, 07:09 PM
I don't see the point in signing Cedeno when you already have Janish. Also, I wouldn't mind trading for Seth Smith, but I wouldn't do it until I knew there weren't options available who can put up similar numbers without costing prospects e.g. Cody Ross, Rick Ankiel, Pat Burrell, Coco Crisp, J.D. Drew, Andruw Jones, Ryan Ludwick, Luke Scott, et al.

Other tan Scott, I don't see any of those guys with similar numbers.

HokieRed
12-28-2011, 07:12 PM
Other tan Scott, I don't see any of those guys with similar numbers.

Agree. Luke Scott's the only player on that list I'd even want to talk to.

Benihana
12-28-2011, 07:23 PM
I'd really love to see the Reds make a strong play for one of the Cuban OFs- either Cespedes or Soler. In fact, I'd much rather see the Reds shell out for them than a closer at this point.

Should be noted that while Cespedes likely would, Soler wouldn't offer much to the major league team until 2014 at the earliest, so this would not be a consistent move with their "All-In" ideology.

Will M
12-29-2011, 10:05 AM
I don't see the point in signing Cedeno when you already have Janish. Also, I wouldn't mind trading for Seth Smith, but I wouldn't do it until I knew there weren't options available who can put up similar numbers without costing prospects e.g. Cody Ross, Rick Ankiel, Pat Burrell, Coco Crisp, J.D. Drew, Andruw Jones, Ryan Ludwick, Luke Scott, et al.

I agree. If Janish can't be the utility infielder then why did the Reds offer him arbitration?

Mario-Rijo
12-29-2011, 12:16 PM
Trade Brandon Phillips to Colorado for Seth Smith LF and Eric Young Jr 2B.

Sign Ryan Madson to a 2 year deal 19 million with a 3rd year option at 13 million. (3 yrs 32 million).

In essence giving BP's money to Madson for the next 2 years (we'll see about year #3). Start EY Jr. at 2B who has the potential to be a top defender at some point but is an intriguing leadoff option already, OBP% already around .340 and he hasn't even got his hitting squared away yet.

Sign Coco Crisp as the 5th OF.

Sometimes ya gotta take a little risk.

Mario-Rijo
12-29-2011, 12:19 PM
I'd really love to see the Reds make a strong play for one of the Cuban OFs- either Cespedes or Soler. In fact, I'd much rather see the Reds shell out for them than a closer at this point.

Should be noted that while Cespedes likely would, Soler wouldn't offer much to the major league team until 2014 at the earliest, so this would not be a consistent move with their "All-In" ideology.

Worth a shot. We have some in house guys who could turn into a good closer with Masset, Marshall, Arredondo & Chapman. Sign both of the Cubans. :D

SirFelixCat
12-29-2011, 12:21 PM
Trade Brandon Phillips to Colorado for Seth Smith LF and Eric Young Jr 2B.

Sign Ryan Madson to a 2 year deal 19 million with a 3rd year option at 13 million. (3 yrs 32 million).

In essence giving BP's money to Madson for the next 2 years (we'll see about year #3). Start EY Jr. at 2B who has the potential to be a top defender at some point but is an intriguing leadoff option already, OBP% already around .340 and he hasn't even got his hitting squared away yet.

Sign Coco Crisp as the 5th OF.

Sometimes ya gotta take a little risk.

Please, God, NO! Living here in Denver, watching Seth and EYJr. for the last couple of years, no thank you.

EY Jr. has 1 tool: speed. That's it.

Seth Smith is not an improvement over what we have in house right now, imo (read: Heisey).

Not a fan of either SS or EY.

Mario-Rijo
12-29-2011, 12:23 PM
Please, God, NO! Living here in Denver, watching Seth and EYJr. for the last couple of years, no thank you.

EY Jr. has 1 tool: speed. That's it.

Well he can clearly take a walk as well but I thought he had a bit of pop or at least the potential for it, no? I do know he has had some troubles with the glove but do you think it's not something he'll ever get straightened out? Give us a scouting report on these 2 if you would please, I have seen very little of Smith but what I have seen of EY Jr he looked like he has alot of potential.

Brutus
12-29-2011, 01:08 PM
Please, God, NO! Living here in Denver, watching Seth and EYJr. for the last couple of years, no thank you.

EY Jr. has 1 tool: speed. That's it.

Seth Smith is not an improvement over what we have in house right now, imo (read: Heisey).

Not a fan of either SS or EY.

I agree on Young, but Smith used in conjunction with Heisey would be a definite upgrade in overall production. Smith used effectively in a split situation is a very good player.

I wouldn't do that deal, mind you. Just sayin' I really, really like Smith.

Edd Roush
12-29-2011, 02:34 PM
Trade Brandon Phillips to Colorado for Seth Smith LF and Eric Young Jr 2B.

Sign Ryan Madson to a 2 year deal 19 million with a 3rd year option at 13 million. (3 yrs 32 million).

In essence giving BP's money to Madson for the next 2 years (we'll see about year #3). Start EY Jr. at 2B who has the potential to be a top defender at some point but is an intriguing leadoff option already, OBP% already around .340 and he hasn't even got his hitting squared away yet.

Sign Coco Crisp as the 5th OF.

Sometimes ya gotta take a little risk.

I think that is a fantastic proposal. Eric Young Jr was fantastic at getting on base all throughout the minor leagues. In his first three big league seasons, he has shown marked improvement on getting on base.

I have already said I'm a huge fan of both Madson and Smith.

I like all of the numbers behind this trade, but I worry about the qualititative aspects of this trade. Brandon is the face of this franchise. He is many people's favorite player. I am not inside the clubhouse to know how much of a leader he is, but he is a very long tenured Red.

I am worried that trading Brandon might take away this team's soul.

That being said, I think Eric Young Jr and Seth Smith for Brandon Phillips is a deal I would do in a heartbeat. I would try to knock Madson down from that 3 year 32 million number, but if that's what it took, I would do it.

I honestly believe that those moves make the Reds a 93-94 win team.

Vottomatic
12-29-2011, 02:52 PM
Trade Brandon Phillips to Colorado for Seth Smith LF and Eric Young Jr 2B.

Sign Ryan Madson to a 2 year deal 19 million with a 3rd year option at 13 million. (3 yrs 32 million).

In essence giving BP's money to Madson for the next 2 years (we'll see about year #3). Start EY Jr. at 2B who has the potential to be a top defender at some point but is an intriguing leadoff option already, OBP% already around .340 and he hasn't even got his hitting squared away yet.

Sign Coco Crisp as the 5th OF.

Sometimes ya gotta take a little risk.

As people always do with my trade ideas.............why would Colorado want Brandon Phillips? They are trying to cut payroll.......not increase it.

Edd Roush
12-29-2011, 02:59 PM
As people always do with my trade ideas.............why would Colorado want Brandon Phillips? They are trying to cut payroll.......not increase it.

Colorado is still in position to win now in a wide-open NL West. Phillips is certainly an upgrade over Young and Smith would lost either way in a glut of outfielders. Phillips is more expensive, but he makes the Rockies a better team.

SirFelixCat
12-29-2011, 07:17 PM
Well he can clearly take a walk as well but I thought he had a bit of pop or at least the potential for it, no? I do know he has had some troubles with the glove but do you think it's not something he'll ever get straightened out? Give us a scouting report on these 2 if you would please, I have seen very little of Smith but what I have seen of EY Jr he looked like he has alot of potential.


I agree on Young, but Smith used in conjunction with Heisey would be a definite upgrade in overall production. Smith used effectively in a split situation is a very good player.

I wouldn't do that deal, mind you. Just sayin' I really, really like Smith.

Re: Smith in a platoon situation...I could see that work. I was thinking along the lines of giving him LF and that's that. His splits say he work out well as a platoon player, so that makes sense.

But, while not watching the Rockies that closely, I know that EYJr. is a fan fav. but, up to this point, has failed as an every day player. He has speed and can be exciting, but I just don't see him as that special, esp. when giving up BP for him & a platoon player.

Now, I'm not opposed to getting those two, but I feel that for a platoon player and an upsidebuthasntputittogether player, the cost you propose is too steep.

When I get more time this weekend, I'll try to write up more re: EYJr.

RedEye
12-29-2011, 07:40 PM
Why is everyone so eager to plunk serious money down on Madson? Didn't the team just get out from under its last onerous contract for a player who pitches only 75 innings a year?

757690
12-29-2011, 07:59 PM
Why is everyone so eager to plunk serious money down on Madson? Didn't the team just get out from under its last onerous contract for a player who pitches only 75 innings a year?

1) Madson > Cordero
2) Madson will be cheaper in $$$ and years than Cordero
3) The Reds did go to the Playoffs with Cordero.

Jpup
12-29-2011, 08:04 PM
I think Phillips' value is as high as it ever will be, but I'm not sure anyone is clamoring to trade for him. He's a one year rental. You almost have to send him to a contender in which Colorado may not be a bad idea if they consider themselves a contender. Other teams that would be interested could be Miami, Arizona, or Detroit.

RedLegSuperStar
12-29-2011, 08:09 PM
I think the Reds should eye Nathan Jones from the White Sox. Also attempt to pry Carlos Quinten away as well in the deal.

Jones is from Covington, Ky so he'd be coming home so to speak.

Vottomatic
12-29-2011, 08:56 PM
I've been wondering if the reason Phillips extension hasn't been announced is because they're trying to trade him?

Will M
12-29-2011, 10:02 PM
I've been wondering if the reason Phillips extension hasn't been announced is because they're trying to trade him?

unless we got a young second baseman back in the deal we would start Janish, Frazier or Cairo. or we would have to make another deal to replace Phillips.

RedEye
12-29-2011, 10:24 PM
1) Madson > Cordero
2) Madson will be cheaper in $$$ and years than Cordero
3) The Reds did go to the Playoffs with Cordero.

1 is probably true. 2 remains to be seen. Not sure how 3 is relevant to the decision at hand.

In any case, none of these explain why the team should be eager to spend multiyear millions on a relief pitcher. I'd much rather see a closer candidate acquired from within or via trade. Save the $ for another starter or store it away to sign Votto in a few years.

*BaseClogger*
12-29-2011, 10:32 PM
#2 is da truf...

REDREAD
12-30-2011, 01:41 AM
In any case, none of these explain why the team should be eager to spend multiyear millions on a relief pitcher. I'd much rather see a closer candidate acquired from within or via trade. Save the $ for another starter or store it away to sign Votto in a few years.

Madson is potentially THE missing piece.
If the options are to spend 5 millon on Cordero or Lidge or 10 million on Madson, I will gladly spend the extra 5 million on the impact player and skimp on LF/utility infielder.

Cordero was a bit shakey the last 2 years, but let's not forget the immediate impact he made on the bullpen. The problem with the Cordero signing was more of the timing. The Reds were in talent acquision mode, the argument was made that the $$ could've been spent more wisely.

This current team can really only be upgraded at closer, LF, and SS (realistically). If we can write a check and fill the closer (the position of most need remaining, IMO), we should do it.

Think about the playoffs.. Tie game in the ninth.. the Phils bring in Papelthorn.
I would prefer the Reds have something better than Lidge or Masset to counter with.

Captain Hook
12-30-2011, 02:13 AM
#2 is da truf...

I don't get #2.It seems that the majority here would prefer to go without signing anyone to be the designated closer if Cordero is the only option.Those that want Cordero back don't want him making anything near what he's made the last four years but everyone seems ok with Madson getting a big payday.Based on the little knowledge I have there doesn't seem to be much of a chance that Cordero ends up getting more then Madson from anyone let alone the Reds.

*BaseClogger*
12-30-2011, 03:45 AM
Well, Madson is two years younger than Cordero was when he signed with the Reds, will likely get a contract at least half the length of Cordero's, and has much better control...

corkedbat
12-30-2011, 04:13 AM
I think the Reds should eye Nathan Jones from the White Sox. Also attempt to pry Carlos Quinten away as well in the deal.

Jones is from Covington, Ky so he'd be coming home so to speak.

Quentin would make me very happy and he'd be a 1yr rental (which means his cost in talent would be somewhat lessened and only be owed about $5M this season which is probably doable). Jones looks like a solid young reliever who might take the sting out of the the loss of Boxberger. Only question is do we have anything to spare that the ChiSox would like.

Don't think they'd want Phillips (unless the Reds want to expand the deal and buy low onn Gordon Beckham in a swap of 2Bs. Otherwise, you'd probably be looking at cobbling together a deal from among: Stubbs or Heisey, Bailey or Chapman, Francisco or Frazier, Masset or Ondrusek, Smith and/or Fisher and a farmhand or two from among Soto, Lotzkar, Gregorious, HRod, YRod, Lemarre, Joseph, Sulbaran. Not sure what combination would get it done (if any). They might take Arroyo off our hands if we want Dunn back. :evil:

If you deal Stubbs and Bailey (or) Chapman (then Sign Luke Scott, Coco Crisp and Madson):

CF Crisp/Heisey
2B Phillips
1B Votto/Frazier
LF Quentin/Scott
RF Bruce
3B Rolen/Francisco
CA Mesaraco/Hanigan
SS Cozart/Valaika (or) Janish

Latos
Cueto
Leake
Arroyo
Bailey (or) Chapman (or) Wei/Saunders/Maholm/Jackson/Penny/Francis/Harden/Kuroda/Oswalt/(other)
Lecure
(One of) Ondrusek/Brackman/Judy/Jones/Horst/Smith/Fisher
Arredondo
Bray
Massett
Marshall
Madsen

25th spot comes down to 6th bench bat or 7th bullpen arm.

Not bad

corkedbat
12-30-2011, 04:18 AM
Well, Madson is two years younger than Cordero was when he signed with the Reds, will likely get a contract at least half the length of Cordero's, and has much better control...

He's reportedly looking for at least $11M per and nobody is offering 3 years at that number.

Mario-Rijo
12-30-2011, 07:33 AM
unless we got a young second baseman back in the deal we would start Janish, Frazier or Cairo. or we would have to make another deal to replace Phillips.

Or we get a SS back and move Cozart over to 2nd.

AmarilloRed
12-30-2011, 03:18 PM
I'm not really surprised the Reds haven't negotiated with Brandon since the winter meetings, and doubt anything happens with a extension for Brandon the rest of the offseason. I think Latos and Marshall will be a higher priority for the Reds to give extensions to, and extensions for those 2 really will use up the money that would have been earmarked for Brandon.

mdccclxix
12-30-2011, 04:06 PM
I'm not really surprised the Reds haven't negotiated with Brandon since the winter meetings, and doubt anything happens with a extension for Brandon the rest of the offseason. I think Latos and Marshall will be a higher priority for the Reds to give extensions to, and extensions for those 2 really will use up the money that would have been earmarked for Brandon.

On the other hand a 5 million deferral in 2012 from Brandon to go along with an extension could help acquire the needed pieces in LF, UT and bullpen. Just a thought.

mth123
12-30-2011, 05:43 PM
On the other hand a 5 million deferral in 2012 from Brandon to go along with an extension could help acquire the needed pieces in LF, UT and bullpen. Just a thought.

Or fund the signing bonus for an extension for Latos or Marshall.

Marc D
12-30-2011, 06:25 PM
I saw on MLBTR a while back that there was talk of Atlanta dealing Martin Prado to Colorado for Seth Smith and a prospect named Tim Wheeler.

I'm not familiar with Wheeler, do the Reds have something similar they could send to Atlanta and is Prado still a viable target? I know he had a bad year last year but before that he was very good, plays 2B/3B/LF, has OBP skills and under control for a while.

Seems logical to me but maybe there is something wrong with him?

Scrap Irony
12-30-2011, 06:29 PM
Nothing wrong with Prado other than the Braves undervaluing him.

He'd be a great target and a fine, fine #2 hole hitter.

But I doubt Cincinnati has the bullets to get him, though Heisey would interest Atlanta, IMO.

sonny
12-31-2011, 12:53 AM
Nothing wrong with Prado other than the Braves undervaluing him.

He'd be a great target and a fine, fine #2 hole hitter.

But I doubt Cincinnati has the bullets to get him, though Heisey would interest Atlanta, IMO.

Heisey and Pile O'Cash?

kaldaniels
12-31-2011, 01:02 AM
Prado....hmmm.

Not for the OF but what about putting him at 2b and trading BP? The net money saved and spent elsewhere could be a plus for the Reds.

Scrap Irony
12-31-2011, 01:12 AM
Prado as an OF/IF utility guy would solve a lot of problems, IMO. He's a high obp guy normally who doesn't K all that much. I wouldn't deal him for Phillips, as Phillips has a ton of defensive value and is just about the same offensively at this point.

I would deal for him.

Marc D
12-31-2011, 01:21 AM
Nothing wrong with Prado other than the Braves undervaluing him.

He'd be a great target and a fine, fine #2 hole hitter.

But I doubt Cincinnati has the bullets to get him, though Heisey would interest Atlanta, IMO.


Heisey and Pile O'Cash?

Heisey and Frazier for Prado?

Heisey, Frazier, Chapman to Atlanta for Prado and JJ?

I know both are going to get expensive the next 2 years, but if the Reds could afford it, it also assures them on the same team with Votto the next 2 years.

If there was a shred of truth to the rumor of Atlanta's interest in Adam Jones what could Stubbs bring?

Vottomatic
12-31-2011, 08:27 AM
For me, it's kinda weird. I guess since Brandon is the longest tenured Red, there is a part of me that kinda hopes he is a lifetime Red.

On the other hand, I realize the Reds are small market and factoring in his age, they should probably trade him and get something for him now before he is an anchor on the team payroll.

It's really a tough decision for me.

Vottomatic
12-31-2011, 08:27 AM
Double post. N/M

TRF
12-31-2011, 05:46 PM
Why is everyone wringing hands over Cordero or Madsen?

Didn't the Reds JUST trade for Marshall? doesn't he clearly have CLOSER stuff? Do these same Reds not also have Arredondo, Bray and LeCure, three guys that can get K's in bunches?

Closer is not an issue, at least not to me.

LF, now that might finally be an issue. BP at leadoff and Heisey hitting second with Stubbs down around 7th. This interests me greatly.

If the Reds shell out for Cordero, I'll not be surprised. But i won't like it.

dougdirt
12-31-2011, 05:54 PM
Why is everyone wringing hands over Cordero or Madsen?

Didn't the Reds JUST trade for Marshall? doesn't he clearly have CLOSER stuff? Do these same Reds not also have Arredondo, Bray and LeCure, three guys that can get K's in bunches?

Closer is not an issue, at least not to me.

LF, now that might finally be an issue. BP at leadoff and Heisey hitting second with Stubbs down around 7th. This interests me greatly.

If the Reds shell out for Cordero, I'll not be surprised. But i won't like it.
Because the Reds don't want to use Marshall as a closer and are clearly going for an established closer.

Ron Madden
12-31-2011, 06:34 PM
Because the Reds don't want to use Marshall as a closer and are clearly going for an established closer.

I think you may be right but it doesn't make sense to me.

dougdirt
12-31-2011, 07:13 PM
I think you may be right but it doesn't make sense to me.

I don't get it either.

757690
12-31-2011, 07:35 PM
I think you may be right but it doesn't make sense to me.


I don't get it either.

I get it, but think it's silly and avoidable.

Because of the stupid save stat, teams now need two different pitchers at the end of games. One to get the tough outs in high leverage situations, and one to get the final three outs of a victory.

You're right that it doesn't make much sense, but as long as the save stat is defined as it is, and drives pitchers salaries the way it does, that is the way teams will build their bullpens.

Kc61
12-31-2011, 07:45 PM
Having an experienced closer makes perfect sense. I think you all know the arguments in favor. Most MLB teams subscribe to the reasoning.

More importantly, Sean Marshall is one pitcher. Teams want to have perhaps three very effective, late innings relievers. Even with Marshall, with Chapman becoming a starter, there is a clear need for additional very effective late innings relievers on the Reds. Whether a closer or not.

So it's really not so baffling. I know, relievers are unimportant, it doesn't matter who you put out there, closing experience means nothing, all these arguments.

But very few guys running baseball teams adopt them.

So the Reds are looking for one more good late innings guy.

RedsManRick
12-31-2011, 09:44 PM
Back before there were "closers" teams won the same % of close games as they do now. There may be a mentality among today's pitchers that actually affects their performance fi they don't have a set role defined by a stat-driven game situation. But I have very little doubt it's a mentality of our own creation.

I simply cannot believe that pitching ahead by 2 runs with the bases empty in the 9th is more stressful than pitching with the bases loaded in a tie game in the 7th.

I can totally get behind the Reds adding another high quality arm for the bullpen. I just think the insistence of getting a "proven closer" at the expense of pitcher that is better at getting people out at is a dumb idea.

Ron Madden
01-01-2012, 01:15 AM
Back before there were "closers" teams won the same % of close games as they do now. There may be a mentality among today's pitchers that actually affects their performance fi they don't have a set role defined by a stat-driven game situation. But I have very little doubt it's a mentality of our own creation.

I simply cannot believe that pitching ahead by 2 runs with the bases empty in the 9th is more stressful than pitching with the bases loaded in a tie game in the 7th.

I can totally get behind the Reds adding another high quality arm for the bullpen. I just think the insistence of getting a "proven closer" at the expense of pitcher that is better at getting people out at is a dumb idea.

AGREED! :thumbup: