PDA

View Full Version : Reds chance of keeping Votto just took a hit..



brm7675
11-14-2011, 03:39 PM
ESPN is reporting that the Dodgers may ink Mr. Kemp to a 8 year 160 million dollar deal or basically 20 million per year. So...if Mr. Kemp is worth that, and we haven't even seen what Prince and Albert is going to get, to me it's time to begin looking at trading Votto or lose him and get nothing, because the Reds just don't have the 22-27 million per year to afford Votto.

KYRedLeg
11-14-2011, 04:11 PM
I didn't realize their chances could get lower than 0, which is where I had them figured.

dMaus14
11-14-2011, 04:30 PM
Even more of a reason to trade him now and get 2 ML players and 2 prospects. Or try and throw in Arroyo and take less on the return.

drowg14
11-14-2011, 04:47 PM
Even more of a reason to trade him now and get 2 ML players and 2 prospects. Or try and throw in Arroyo and take less on the return.

If management decides Votto needs to be traded, that would be one thing. But I do not like the idea of throwing in Arroyo and taking a hit on the return. If Votto is to be traded it needs to be a huge deal that benefits the team in the long run.

Alpha Zero
11-14-2011, 04:58 PM
ESPN is reporting that the Dodgers may ink Mr. Kemp to a 8 year 160 million dollar deal or basically 20 million per year. So...if Mr. Kemp is worth that, and we haven't even seen what Prince and Albert is going to get, to me it's time to begin looking at trading Votto or lose him and get nothing, because the Reds just don't have the 22-27 million per year to afford Votto.

I don't see how this deal elevates Votto into $25MM/yr territory. I think Kemp is at least as valuable as Votto. Kemp is a career .294/.350/.496 (.846 OPS) hitter who plays a premium defensive position (CF) and is currently 27 years old coming off a huge year (.985 OPS). Votto is clearly the better hitter (career .955 OPS), but he plays 1B and will be 3 years older than Kemp is now when he hits FA. I feel that they're both probably among the top five or ten best players in the league. I envision Votto signing something like a 6 year, $120MM deal when he hits FA. The Reds still probably can't afford that though, so it's all a bit of a moot point.

redsfanmia
11-14-2011, 05:08 PM
Votto should be dealt this off season and he should be dealt before Albert and little Cecil signs.

nmculbreth
11-15-2011, 12:21 AM
Votto should be dealt this off season and he should be dealt before Albert and little Cecil signs.

While I'm not particularly crazy about the thought of dealing Votto, doing so before Pujols and Fielder sign makes no sense to me. Trying to deal Votto while Pujols and Fielder are still on the market would likely depress his value because the teams interested would have the option to acquire a reasonable replacement via free agency, whereas afterwards the Reds would hold all of the leverage because Votto would clearly be the best player on the market and the loser(s) of the Pujols / Fielder bidding wars may feel pressured to overpay to avoid getting completely shut out.

That said the Reds should be looking to add parts to win while Votto is still around and not trying to flip him for prospects.

will5979
11-15-2011, 11:45 AM
the Reds should be looking to add parts to win while Votto is still around and not trying to flip him for prospects.

NOMINATED!

The best advice and smartest thing I have read on this board.

WIN NOW, the world is going to end next Dec. anyway, put the pieces together this offseason, if the world doesn't end keep the pieces in place for a repeat in 2013, then after that rebuild...win a World Title at ALL costs.

dMaus14
11-15-2011, 02:18 PM
I don't think its as simple as that. Everyone praised the Brewers for literally going all in this past year and all they did was lose to an older Cardinals team in the ALCS. And with all their fans showing support still don't have the money to keep Prince. Now they have to figure out 3rd, figure out SS, figure out 1B not to mention they lost their double threat in the middle of the lineup with Fielder being gone. The Rays had all pitching, very little hitting and still made it in. Plus their best player was out most of the year. The Rangers had a great lineup but lets be honest average pitching. The Phillies had the best rotation in all of baseball and couldn't get out of the series in which you only need 2 good pitchers.

We don't, for what ever reason, have the financial ability to go all in because there is no guarantee we can win. Postseason is different then the regular season. We want to get rid of our replacement first baseman, our "true future" catcher, our ultimate 4th outfielder and other future players for 1-2 players that will get us into the playoffs? What if we go "all in" and still are out of it come trade deadline? So now we just got rid of our future and our present has collapsed.

Why is it a bad idea to trade a guy who we all know won't be here after 2013 because its the only way to get the best return plus give us financial ability to add what we do need? We don't have the pitching that the Phillies or Rays have. We don't have the offense that the Rangers had. So as a small market team we have to be efficient at every position. It doesn't matter if our 1B is a 7 WAR when our SS is .2 WAR. What's the point in keeping Votto when we are going to play a rookie at SS, a rookie at 3B, our 4th/5th OF will be a rookie, and we will be playing a 1B in LF. What in the world thinks that will win a WS?

I am really not saying that we should trade Votto but I am not saying we shouldn't trade Votto. I just believe that for a small market team there is a price for every member of that team. I believe if the return in the trade solves 2-3 solutions to our 5 question marks (SP, CL, SS, LF, 3B) than yes we should do that trade. Because getting rid of him provides financial flexibility to help answer those other questions.

nmculbreth
11-15-2011, 03:38 PM
Why is it a bad idea to trade a guy who we all know won't be here after 2013 because its the only way to get the best return plus give us financial ability to add what we do need?

To me the answer is incredibly simple: it's nearly impossible to get fair value for Votto.

Usually when a player of Votto's caliber is moved, the team isn't anywhere near contention and the return is a handful of prospects. While this sort of trade makes plenty of sense if your team is on it's way to 90 losses, it makes no sense for a team one year removed from a division title and squarely in their window of contention.

Let's put in another way, assuming that you were the GM how many players would you trade straight up for Joey Votto? I can count maybe ten players and if I'm not getting one of them back in the deal I'm not dealing him.

redsfanmia
11-15-2011, 03:55 PM
To me the answer is incredibly simple: it's nearly impossible to get fair value for Votto.

Usually when a player of Votto's caliber is moved, the team isn't anywhere near contention and the return is a handful of prospects. While this sort of trade makes plenty of sense if your team is on it's way to 90 losses, it makes no sense for a team one year removed from a division title and squarely in their window of contention.

Let's put in another way, assuming that you were the GM how many players would you trade straight up for Joey Votto? I can count maybe ten players and if I'm not getting one of them back in the deal I'm not dealing him.

But trading him for one of those ten players does not solve the budget problem, they probably make as much or more than he does. I think the haul for Votto plus what Alonso would do at first would be benefical to the team.

nate1213
11-15-2011, 04:01 PM
Walt, please, just trade him now. We have no chance to bring him in. And look at the Mets right now, they are just getting a 1st round compensation for a superstar in Reyes. There is no way we can compete with Votto here if we don't have pitching. The Rays are reportedly open to trading away pitching depth for Votto. Please go get a package of Moore and Shields for Votto.

Jefferson24
11-15-2011, 04:03 PM
NOMINATED!

The best advice and smartest thing I have read on this board.

WIN NOW, the world is going to end next Dec. anyway, put the pieces together this offseason, if the world doesn't end keep the pieces in place for a repeat in 2013, then after that rebuild...win a World Title at ALL costs.

The pieces you are talking about cost money. It is already a well known fact that the ownership/management of this team is not interested in spending more money.

Short of spending more money how do you think the Reds can add the necessary pieces to compete for the World Series?

dMaus14
11-15-2011, 04:46 PM
Semi understand where you are coming from but it's not like we were on the cusp of making it to the playoffs and just missed. We were 11 GB of the wild card and 17 games back of the division and only 7 losses away from your 90 loss criteria of rebuilding. If we were say 2/4 GB I would have a different outlook. But the problems we had going into last year are the same going into this year. The only difference is we added to the amount with not picking up Cordero's option (which I believe was a great idea). CL, RP, SP, SS, LF, 3B all need to be figure out. Don't say that SS and 3B are figured out because we are fixing them with rookies and thats not a fix its a guess.

As for getting value, part of the the value for us would be payroll flexibility. We have maybe $8m to use for 3-4 possible solutions. You have a solution for 1B, so use it. Lets say we do trade Votto to Toronto for Escobar, Morrow, Drabek or McGuire (which I think is a fair value, not equal but fair because you could possibly throw in another arm). You have cured your SS (and leadoff) and rotation issue. Now you can still use your prospects and not worry about the future because you can now use Heisey, Wood, Volquez, Sappelt, Bailey, Frazier to attain an additional arm and replacements possibly send Sappelt, Cozart, Volquez and Frazier to ATL for Jurrjens and Prado. Now you have cheaper veterans at LF, 2 SP, SS (leadoff) still with some $$ to spend on RP.

Line up looking like:

C: Hanigan, Mesoraco
1B: Alonso
2B: Phillips
SS: Escobar, Janish
3B: Rolen, Francisco
LF: Prado, Heisey
CF: Stubbs
RF: Bruce

SP: Cueto, Jurrjens, Morrow, Leake, Arroyo, Wood, Drabek (McGuire)
RP: Ondrusek, Lecure, Arredondo, Bray, Boxberger, ??
CL: Chapman

Better rotation and better talent overall in the field I believe. The Reds are going to score run, that's a fact. You need pitching to stop runs from being scored. Not to mention, small market teams are always "rebuilding" because its the only way for them to survive.

*And yes I may be imaginative with these trades but going off of other websites and the teams wants these don't seem far off from being done.*