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View Full Version : Jocketty puts a end to Votto rumors; extension possible?



cinreds21
11-15-2011, 06:57 PM
SI_JonHeyman Jon Heyman
#reds gm walt jocketty said he will NOT trade joey votto this winter. Said instead will try to sign within the next year

RedlegJake
11-15-2011, 07:03 PM
That would be a great signal - if they can get it done - that the team is willing to develop and then keep true top players.

dougdirt
11-15-2011, 07:08 PM
They can try it all they want. I just don't think they have the cash to make it happen, nor do I think Votto really wants to sign a deal before testing the market. But I get why they have to say that.

RBA
11-15-2011, 07:42 PM
There will be NO END to Votto rumors until he signs (if) a new contract.

kaldaniels
11-15-2011, 08:21 PM
Agree with the 2 above, nothing to see here folks.

Vottomatic
11-15-2011, 09:12 PM
There will be NO END to Votto rumors until he signs (if) a new contract.

I dunno. If he almost signs, I might believe the rumors have ended. :D

Unassisted
11-15-2011, 09:50 PM
Within the next year?

That doesn't imply any urgency. It's practically a throwaway statement. To me, it implies a half-hearted effort to sign, followed by a shrug as they let him walk. To Votto, this milquetoast statement might just be worse than saying nothing. :thumbdown:

HokieRed
11-15-2011, 09:54 PM
They can try it all they want. I just don't think they have the cash to make it happen, nor do I think Votto really wants to sign a deal before testing the market. But I get why they have to say that.

Agree. I can't see how/why Votto would sign without going into the market.

RedsManRick
11-15-2011, 10:12 PM
I don't think there's a number any near the realm of possibility that results in an extension. Votto wants control over his future.

RedLegSuperStar
11-15-2011, 11:16 PM
If this team wants to sign anyone they are going to prove they can win and are dedicated to winning on a consistent basis. One year of winning in 15 years doesn't count.

I(heart)Freel
11-15-2011, 11:39 PM
One does wonder if Votto wants to put himself through the scrutiny and constant questions as long as he's not signed long term. I bet that process will grate on him. And it will only get worse in season as deadlines approach if the Reds aren't in the thick of it.

Just saying, Votto has a reason to not test the market. Look at Albert throughout the post season this year. He was getting dogged with the questioning... and his team was winning.

dougdirt
11-16-2011, 12:54 AM
One does wonder if Votto wants to put himself through the scrutiny and constant questions as long as he's not signed long term. I bet that process will grate on him. And it will only get worse in season as deadlines approach if the Reds aren't in the thick of it.

Just saying, Votto has a reason to not test the market. Look at Albert throughout the post season this year. He was getting dogged with the questioning... and his team was winning.
Votto also has about 140M reasons to test the market.

RedlegJake
11-16-2011, 02:11 AM
Votto also has about 140M reasons to test the market.

Thats about the number the Reds will have to come up with - or even more if he keeps mashing like he has. That's why I said IF they can get it done it would be a great sign - also - if they then added a cast around him. I could see signing Votto and then cheap-skating it around him which would be just as bad as not signing him.

icehole3
11-16-2011, 04:44 AM
Do you think Votto will give the Reds a home discount

Ron Madden
11-16-2011, 05:24 AM
They can try it all they want. I just don't think they have the cash to make it happen, nor do I think Votto really wants to sign a deal before testing the market. But I get why they have to say that.

Joey knows that baseball is not just a game but also a business.

I believe he will test the market and sign with the highest bidder.

It's silly to believe Votto would give Cincinnati or Toronto a home town discount, He lives in Florida.

Joey knows that going on the open market is his best chance to strike it rich.

.

redsmetz
11-16-2011, 06:09 AM
Within the next year?

That doesn't imply any urgency. It's practically a throwaway statement. To me, it implies a half-hearted effort to sign, followed by a shrug as they let him walk. To Votto, this milquetoast statement might just be worse than saying nothing. :thumbdown:

What urgency is necessarily there? None really. Votto is signed for the next two seasons, at which point he is eligible for free agency. The only clear statement he has made is that when he signed this contract, he was not ready to tie himself down for the long term; noting he had no idea what he would want to be doing in three years. I'm being hyperbolic here, but there's practically been panic in the streets here on RZ ever since viz Votto's future.

Certainly it's easy to take Jocketty's statement as a throwaway line. But noting that he will not be trading Votto is a clear statement. As for a timetable, why is "within the next year" wrong? Votto seems to be in no rush; the Reds are certainly not pressed to do so. Some players have suggested in their careers that not addressing it is an insult, shows bad faith, etc. Votto, at times, is fairly inscrutable.

Others have suggested that Votto won't give a "home town discount," but what exactly does that mean in real world terms? It's not unheard of (albeit rare) that a player decides that an offer is more than enough for himself, particularly for a given contract period. It's not out of the realm of possibility that Kemp's suggested contract is a possible barometer for Votto. Given what little window we're given into Votto's thinking, it wouldn't shock me to see him decide this is where he wants to be at that $140M or $150M is more than enough for him to make.

(An aside, I'm all for players making what they can - they are the whole show afterall - but it's still mindblowing to write such numbers. Crazy world we live in)

I think Jocketty's being square with folks. He makes clear that unsettling talk about trading the team's star is off the table. He mentions a timetable that's more than adequate for showing "good faith" and "respect" and it's not unbelievable that we may well succeed at an extension. And it's also possible it will all be for naught. But there's absolutely no rush. If come next off-season, Votto is resolute in not signing long term, then he can be dealt. Many here have said the same all along.

Ron Madden
11-16-2011, 06:18 AM
What urgency is necessarily there? None really. Votto is signed for the next two seasons, at which point he is eligible for free agency. The only clear statement he has made is that when he signed this contract, he was not ready to tie himself down for the long term; noting he had no idea what he would want to be doing in three years. I'm being hyperbolic here, but there's practically been panic in the streets here on RZ ever since viz Votto's future.

Certainly it's easy to take Jocketty's statement as a throwaway line. But noting that he will not be trading Votto is a clear statement. As for a timetable, why is "within the next year" wrong? Votto seems to be in no rush; the Reds are certainly not pressed to do so. Some players have suggested in their careers that not addressing it is an insult, shows bad faith, etc. Votto, at times, is fairly inscrutable.

Others have suggested that Votto won't give a "home town discount," but what exactly does that mean in real world terms? It's not unheard of (albeit rare) that a player decides that an offer is more than enough for himself, particularly for a given contract period. It's not out of the realm of possibility that Kemp's suggested contract is a possible barometer for Votto. Given what little window we're given into Votto's thinking, it wouldn't shock me to see him decide this is where he wants to be at that $140M or $150M is more than enough for him to make.

(An aside, I'm all for players making what they can - they are the whole show afterall - but it's still mindblowing to write such numbers. Crazy world we live in)

I think Jocketty's being square with folks. He makes clear that unsettling talk about trading the team's star is off the table. He mentions a timetable that's more than adequate for showing "good faith" and "respect" and it's not unbelievable that we may well succeed at an extension. And it's also possible it will all be for naught. But there's absolutely no rush. If come next off-season, Votto is resolute in not signing long term, then he can be dealt. Many here have said the same all along.

But if Joey is hell bent on testing the free agent market time does matter.

the closer Votto gets to becoming a free agent the less trade value he has.

redsfandan
11-16-2011, 06:38 AM
Do you think Votto will give the Reds a home discount
I doubt it. Even if he does it probably won't be much. Votto is gonna cost alot in a couple years no matter where he is.

wlf WV
11-16-2011, 07:26 AM
I believe Castellini is loyal and protective of his people.I can see him making it worthwhile for Votto,through investment in the Reds Org. or money.I don't envision him letting him walk without putting up a fight.

Having said that,I think the biggest obstacle is the non-winning tradition.It may be too late to change Votto's opinion of that and I think that will be one of the deciding factors with Joey.He can be set for life on any MLB team.

redsmetz
11-16-2011, 07:34 AM
But if Joey is hell bent on testing the free agent market time does matter.

the closer Votto gets to becoming a free agent the less trade value he has.

You might have some reduction in value in that it could cut back on your pool of trade partners, i.e. clubs that can't or won't extend him. But I don't think that's a huge factor.

I don't subscribe to the belief that Votto is "hell bent on testing the free agenty market." He may, in fact, have every intent on doing that, but the only statement he's publicly made is that he couldn't say what he will want for his future come the end of the current contract and that was said a year ago. He's also been very frank that he understands that baseball is first, and foremost, a business. That might be construed as being "hell bent" and it could well mean that, but I don't believe it's a given. Votto has struck me as remarkably mature for his age. [NB: I understand you used word "if" to qualify your statement. Just wanted to acknowledge that]

redsfandan
11-16-2011, 07:37 AM
I believe Castellini is loyal and protective of his people.I can see him making it worthwhile for Votto, through investment in the Reds Org. or money.I don't envision him letting him walk without putting up a fight.

Having said that,I think the biggest obstacle is the non-winning tradition.It may be too late to change Votto's opinion of that and I think that will be one of the deciding factors with Joey.He can be set for life on any MLB team.

You don't have to put up a fight to keep a player that wants to stick around. You just have to make a fair offer. Those are the two big keys:

Will Votto want to stick around when it's for him to decide?

and

Will the Reds determine that they can afford to make a 'fair offer'?

MikeS21
11-16-2011, 08:09 AM
Thats about the number the Reds will have to come up with - or even more if he keeps mashing like he has. That's why I said IF they can get it done it would be a great sign - also - if they then added a cast around him. I could see signing Votto and then cheap-skating it around him which would be just as bad as not signing him.
Sorry, you're not going to have both. If he gets 140M - and I am not disagreeing with that figure, if it is the Reds, the supporting cast isn't going to be anything but cheap.

Cedric
11-16-2011, 10:55 AM
Extending Joey would be the worst thing this franchise could do. We have been down that road before and it was beyond bumpy. Smart organizations know when to flip their assets before it's too late. Guys like Ramon and Coco have me concerned Walt will botch this completely.

Unassisted
11-16-2011, 12:45 PM
I believe Castellini is loyal and protective of his people.I can see him making it worthwhile for Votto,through investment in the Reds Org. or money.I don't envision him letting him walk without putting up a fight.
Adam Dunn might disagree with your statement, even though hindsight has proven Castellini correct in not handing Dunn the keys to a Brinks truck full of cash.

redsmetz
11-16-2011, 12:53 PM
Extending Joey would be the worst thing this franchise could do. We have been down that road before and it was beyond bumpy. Smart organizations know when to flip their assets before it's too late. Guys like Ramon and Coco have me concerned Walt will botch this completely.

Can care to explain which previous road we've been down?

The Griffey had deferred cash which the previous owners charged against their budget every year instead of setting up affordable annuities to cover it (how on earth do you own a major insurance company and not understand this?), not to mention the injuries which hampered his career here. Had they financed the deferrals properly, accounted for it over time, they might have had the money to put into other players.

Cordero's contract, frankly, seemed to have given its value, although an argument can be made that it was too much money for that particular role on the club, although it's an open question. And what does any contract given by the Reds to Hernandez have to do with paying your franchise player over a long term contract. You seem to be comparing apples, oranges and bananas, when we're talking about a peach.

I'm not trying to be snarky here, but you'll have to explain why any of these three unrelated players' contracts are equivalent to Votto's situation (although I grant that Griffey could be an apt comparison, except the club botched its execution).

RANDY IN INDY
11-16-2011, 01:22 PM
Always need to consider a players body type and position when giving a long term contract. Votto looks like a player who will age well, and plays a position that does not require a lot of movement. Biggest fear would be some type of hand or wrist injury, going forward. He also seems to be a model citizen and a very passionate and hard worker on the field. If you can afford it, and the player is open to staying, this one looks like a no-brainer to me. A player to build around and a face for the franchise.

jojo
11-16-2011, 01:24 PM
Mods can the title of this thread be changed to "Re: Jocketty postures inorder to signal to other teams that Votto is going to cost a lot in trade?"

Thanks.

:D

wolfboy
11-16-2011, 01:44 PM
It's silly to believe Votto would give Cincinnati or Toronto a home town discount, He lives in Florida.

I don't think that's silly. Griffey lived in Florida and gave Cincinnati a home town discount.

RBA
11-16-2011, 02:08 PM
I don't see how Votto would consider Cincinnati his hometown. Ken Jr did not give Seattle a hometown discount.

bucksfan2
11-16-2011, 02:08 PM
Extending Joey would be the worst thing this franchise could do. We have been down that road before and it was beyond bumpy. Smart organizations know when to flip their assets before it's too late. Guys like Ramon and Coco have me concerned Walt will botch this completely.

Care to elaborate on that road we went down before?

Paying top dollar to free agents, or to keep your own good players, only backfires if that player doesn't perform. If you pay Joey Votto $20M per season and he produces like a MVP caliber player is supposed to, then you don't have a problem there. The big key to me is whether or not your think Votto will age well or not. Will he age similar to Pujols or will he age like Jr. did? His position isn't as demanding as Jr's and without Votto's bat in the lineup this offense may be trouble.

There have been two MVP caliber Reds players in the past 3 decades. I would be willing to pay Votto to be a Red for a long time.

dougdirt
11-16-2011, 02:15 PM
Care to elaborate on that road we went down before?

Paying top dollar to free agents, or to keep your own good players, only backfires if that player doesn't perform. If you pay Joey Votto $20M per season and he produces like a MVP caliber player is supposed to, then you don't have a problem there. The big key to me is whether or not your think Votto will age well or not. Will he age similar to Pujols or will he age like Jr. did? His position isn't as demanding as Jr's and without Votto's bat in the lineup this offense may be trouble.

There have been two MVP caliber Reds players in the past 3 decades. I would be willing to pay Votto to be a Red for a long time.
The Reds paying someone, even an MVP, 20-25% of their payroll, is likely to be a problem. The money probably won't be enough to fill out the rest of your roster around that player to the point where it matters that you DO have an MVP type of player.

mdccclxix
11-16-2011, 02:25 PM
Basically, the Reds have to win big in 2012 in order to a) have any chance to afford Votto b) convince Votto it's a safe decision to sign long term with the Reds.

lollipopcurve
11-16-2011, 02:37 PM
If Votto will not take a hometown discount, he's won't be staying. Jocketty is going to do the safe thing from a PR perspective and make another run at him, but I truly believe it's going to be a formality. Votto will not leave the kind of $$$ on the table that the Reds will ask him to.

Trade will come next offseason or at this year's trading deadline, IMO.

_Sir_Charles_
11-16-2011, 03:25 PM
I love how most everyone here "knows" what Joey wants. LOL. He "wants" to test the market. He "wants" to go home to Toronto. He "wants" to sign near his home in Florida. He "wants" control over his future and it's why he didn't sign a longer contract.

Simply put, nobody here "knows" squat. From what I've seen/read/heard, Joey's very much his own man. It wouldn't surprise me if he feels that he's rich already. Not everybody is greedy. Some people do enjoy stability and loyalty. I'm not going to assume anything.

Cedric
11-16-2011, 03:38 PM
Care to elaborate on that road we went down before?

Paying top dollar to free agents, or to keep your own good players, only backfires if that player doesn't perform. If you pay Joey Votto $20M per season and he produces like a MVP caliber player is supposed to, then you don't have a problem there. The big key to me is whether or not your think Votto will age well or not. Will he age similar to Pujols or will he age like Jr. did? His position isn't as demanding as Jr's and without Votto's bat in the lineup this offense may be trouble.

There have been two MVP caliber Reds players in the past 3 decades. I would be willing to pay Votto to be a Red for a long time.

It seems really simple to me. Can anyone name a franchise that has won consistently by paying one player the percentage Votto would make? History to me says the best move would be to maximize the return in value by moving him this winter.

redsmetz
11-16-2011, 03:50 PM
It seems really simple to me. Can anyone name a franchise that has won consistently by paying one player the percentage Votto would make? History to me says the best move would be to maximize the return in value by moving him this winter.

But that's not what you said in your original post - you named three specific players, only one of whom had a really long contract (Griffey), that frankly, was well structured, but horribly managed by the previous owners. It was compounded by the unfortunate demise of Griffey through injuries, but they never really worked to build a good team around him even though he gave the Reds a very flexible deal. I'm still not sure what Cordero or Hernandez had to do with it.

What you say here certainly is a bonafide point, but it's not the same as what you put forward earlier.

lollipopcurve
11-16-2011, 03:53 PM
Simply put, nobody here "knows" squat. From what I've seen/read/heard, Joey's very much his own man. It wouldn't surprise me if he feels that he's rich already. Not everybody is greedy. Some people do enjoy stability and loyalty. I'm not going to assume anything.

Technically, you're right. No one has had a conversation with Votto wherein he tells them what he plans to do after 2013.

But -- have you read his comments about baseball being a business and about how leverage switches to the player after 6 years of service time? What makes you think he might be more willing to give the Reds a discount in the future if he wasn't willing to last offseason? Why do you think he hired Dan Lozano as his agent? (Lozano is gunning for big money clients, and currently has Pujols testing the market.)

Nobody knows what Votto will do -- yet the signs are pointing in one direction, if you're paying attention and staying objective.

Cedric
11-16-2011, 03:54 PM
But that's not what you said in your original post - you named three specific players, only one of whom had a really long contract (Griffey), that frankly, was well structured, but horribly managed by the previous owners. It was compounded by the unfortunate demise of Griffey through injuries, but they never really worked to build a good team around him even though he gave the Reds a very flexible deal. I'm still not sure what Cordero or Hernandez had to do with it.

What you say here certainly is a bonafide point, but it's not the same as what you put forward earlier.

I'm saying that I don't trust the current GM to flip value at the appropriate time.

_Sir_Charles_
11-16-2011, 04:03 PM
Technically, you're right. No one has had a conversation with Votto wherein he tells them what he plans to do after 2013.

But -- have you read his comments about baseball being a business and about how leverage switches to the player after 6 years of service time? What makes you think he might be more willing to give the Reds a discount in the future if he wasn't willing to last offseason? Why do you think he hired Dan Lozano as his agent? (Lozano is gunning for big money clients, and currently has Pujols testing the market.)

Nobody knows what Votto will do -- yet the signs are pointing in one direction, if you're paying attention and staying objective.

The signs are pointing in one direction if you make lots of assumptions and guesses as to what things mean. Just because he hired some specific agent doesn't mean he going for some specific deal. It could be something as simple as he was recommended to him by someone he trusts. As for his comments about baseball being a business...I don't think anybody would disagree with this...but it doesn't mean that HE'S going to treat it that way. People are assuming he will.

Personally, I think he will end up testing the market...but these blanket statements of assurances that he WILL test the market or that he WILL do this or that...sorry, they've just started grating on my nerves a bit.

bucksfan2
11-16-2011, 04:13 PM
The Reds paying someone, even an MVP, 20-25% of their payroll, is likely to be a problem. The money probably won't be enough to fill out the rest of your roster around that player to the point where it matters that you DO have an MVP type of player.

I disagree. They key with everything is player development and finding the right role players to fit your team. Every team has a window to compete, having an MVP caliber player makes that window a lot longer. Just this past off season two teams made it to the playoffs with very small payrolls. Now you tell me that Joey Votto making $20M a season upping the Rays payroll last year to $61M doesn't make them a much better baseball team. We are still talking about a payroll much lower than that of the Reds. Also Arizona last season could have added a $20M player last season, been under the Reds current payroll, and have been a better team with Votto.

In order to do this you have to hope that you have a guy like Hamilton who can replace Phillips when he becomes expensive. Or a guy like Boxberger can replace a closer at a fraction of the cost. Mesoraco can replace a Hernandez and Frazier/Francisco can replace an aging Rolen at a fraction of the cost.

757690
11-16-2011, 04:18 PM
It seems really simple to me. Can anyone name a franchise that has won consistently by paying one player the percentage Votto would make? History to me says the best move would be to maximize the return in value by moving him this winter.

IN 2010, the Reds paid Cordero and Harang $24M combined, or 1/3 of the payroll, and got very little production out of them, and they won the division.

Votto will likely get less than 1/4 of the overall payroll, and be significantly more productive than Harang and Cordero combined.

RANDY IN INDY
11-16-2011, 04:59 PM
I disagree. They key with everything is player development and finding the right role players to fit your team. Every team has a window to compete, having an MVP caliber player makes that window a lot longer. Just this past off season two teams made it to the playoffs with very small payrolls. Now you tell me that Joey Votto making $20M a season upping the Rays payroll last year to $61M doesn't make them a much better baseball team. We are still talking about a payroll much lower than that of the Reds. Also Arizona last season could have added a $20M player last season, been under the Reds current payroll, and have been a better team with Votto.

In order to do this you have to hope that you have a guy like Hamilton who can replace Phillips when he becomes expensive. Or a guy like Boxberger can replace a closer at a fraction of the cost. Mesoraco can replace a Hernandez and Frazier/Francisco can replace an aging Rolen at a fraction of the cost.

:beerme: Much easier to find the role players than to find a talent the caliber of Votto to carry your team and be the face of your franchise.

osuceltic
11-16-2011, 05:04 PM
:beerme: Much easier to find the role players than to find a talent the caliber of Votto to carry your team and be the face of your franchise.

Yes, and Jocketty has a history of understanding this and paying for the true premium players. He will fill in around the edges with low-cost guys, but he finds a way to pay the difference-makers.

If Votto simply doesn't want to be here, then they can either trade him at the deadline in 2013 (if they're out of contention) or let him walk and take the draft picks. There is no gun to their head.

Vottomatic
11-16-2011, 06:15 PM
If the Reds aren't going to trade for, sign, etc.......a Matt Holliday or Lance Berkman to hit behind Joey, they might as well trade for Joey.

Pujols is great, but he also benefits from the solid protection those guys provide behind him.

Reds don't have that guy that can protect Joey.

And from Joey's point of view, why would he want to be the best player on a mediocre team and continue to suffer through seasons like the last one where he was basically pitched around and saw little to hit? He won't. He will go to greener pastures. Greener in dollars and an organization that wins and has a good lineup around him.

mth123
11-16-2011, 07:57 PM
:beerme: Much easier to find the role players than to find a talent the caliber of Votto to carry your team and be the face of your franchise.

Agreed. A strong organization churns its role players and avoids the $4 and $5 Million deals for bench players and relief pitchers. When you do that, you can afford the face of your franchise.

Votto will make $19 Million 2013. If he signs a Kemp deal, its only $1 Million more to keep him. If they can afford $19 Million, I'm sure they can afford $20 Million. If he'd go 8 years at $160 Million I think its a no brainer that they keep him.

IMO, Votto will not leave town because of money, but he'll not look back if the team keeps squandering its opportunities to contend like they did in 2011.

RANDY IN INDY
11-16-2011, 08:27 PM
Exactly

Ron Madden
11-17-2011, 03:50 AM
Just so everyone Knows. I'm not saying it's a sure thing that Votto goes the Free agent rout. Just that it is highly probable and there are some signs that point in that direction.

Both Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder are seeking long term deals in excess of TWO Hundred Million Dollars. All I'm sayin' is that if Joey has another great season he might demand and could receive such a deal. I just don't see how a club in the Reds situation can afford to pay any one player that kind of money and remain competitive.

redsfandan
11-17-2011, 06:08 AM
Agreed. A strong organization churns its role players and avoids the $4 and $5 Million deals for bench players and relief pitchers. When you do that, you can afford the face of your franchise.

Votto will make $19 Million 2013. If he signs a Kemp deal, its only $1 Million more to keep him. If they can afford $19 Million, I'm sure they can afford $20 Million. If he'd go 8 years at $160 Million I think its a no brainer that they keep him.

IMO, Votto will not leave town because of money, but he'll not look back if the team keeps squandering its opportunities to contend like they did in 2011.

That assumes that he'll be paid that money in 2013 by the Reds. It hasn't happened yet and I don't think anyone can say for sure that he won't be traded before then. Oh, except if you want to take Walt at his word that he won't be dealt.

mth123
11-17-2011, 06:33 AM
That assumes that he'll be paid that money in 2013 by the Reds. It hasn't happened yet and I don't think anyone can say for sure that he won't be traded before then. Oh, except if you want to take Walt at his word that he won't be dealt.

Well, for all the talk about getting a better return this year, than by waiting, I don't see it. If Votto's deal is that rich, the Reds won't be the only team that can't afford him. There will be a limited number of teams that can pay and the ones that can would seem to be the ones with a big dollar guy already or will be in the bidding for Pujols or Fielder. Who is going to give up a package of players along with committing the dollars to keep him when they could just sign one of the others without giving up the players? If they just want Votto as a rental with no intention of committing big bucks long term, the return to cincy won't be much. The Reds best play is to keep him and try to win and if he walks, reinvest his money.

I don't see any team offering a deal where the players coming back would have more value than keeping Votto as long as possible and trying to win it all while he's here. Its not that I can't imagine some deals like that, I just don't see any team actually offering such a deal.

Vottomatic
11-17-2011, 07:33 AM
I talked to Joey, and he did say he wants to go to Disney World. Other than that, he didn't say much. :D

REDREAD
11-17-2011, 10:50 AM
But if Joey is hell bent on testing the free agent market time does matter.

the closer Votto gets to becoming a free agent the less trade value he has.

I don't think the Reds will ever trade Votto.
But let's say they do.
The closer Votto is to being a free agent, the more suitors there are available to trade him to as well, as there is less time/money commitment involved.

Look at Holliday .. He was traded twice as his contract was about to end.

MikeS21
11-17-2011, 11:33 AM
Agreed. A strong organization churns its role players and avoids the $4 and $5 Million deals for bench players and relief pitchers. When you do that, you can afford the face of your franchise.

Votto will make $19 Million 2013. If he signs a Kemp deal, its only $1 Million more to keep him. If they can afford $19 Million, I'm sure they can afford $20 Million. If he'd go 8 years at $160 Million I think its a no brainer that they keep him.

IMO, Votto will not leave town because of money, but he'll not look back if the team keeps squandering its opportunities to contend like they did in 2011.
You are making a risky assumption here. You are assuming that come 2014, the market for Votto will be $20 million. Problem is, who is to say that the market price for Votto in 2014 won't be $25 million? I don't know. I hope you are right and it stays at $20 million.

My guess is that as soon as Pujols signs for 2012, you can add about 10% per year, and that will be Votto's price in 2014. And if that is true, the Reds cannot afford Votto, and all the cast of characters you want to surround him with: a #1 starter, Jay Bruce, Johnny Cueto, and that is assuming you have better than average players at all the other positions. And it only gets worse in 2015.

Not sure how squandering an opportunity in 2011 relates to Votto signing in 2014? Even if the Reds had won the World Series in 2011, how would that cause him to sign in 2014? Will winning the 2011 World Series keep Albert Pujols in St. Louis in 2012? Maybe ... maybe not.

mth123
11-17-2011, 07:30 PM
You are making a risky assumption here. You are assuming that come 2014, the market for Votto will be $20 million. Problem is, who is to say that the market price for Votto in 2014 won't be $25 million? I don't know. I hope you are right and it stays at $20 million.

My guess is that as soon as Pujols signs for 2012, you can add about 10% per year, and that will be Votto's price in 2014. And if that is true, the Reds cannot afford Votto, and all the cast of characters you want to surround him with: a #1 starter, Jay Bruce, Johnny Cueto, and that is assuming you have better than average players at all the other positions. And it only gets worse in 2015.

Not sure how squandering an opportunity in 2011 relates to Votto signing in 2014? Even if the Reds had won the World Series in 2011, how would that cause him to sign in 2014? Will winning the 2011 World Series keep Albert Pujols in St. Louis in 2012? Maybe ... maybe not.

Actually the discussion is about signing him to an extension now and the impact of Matt Kemp's deal with LA. MVP, plays a higher leverage position, 1 year younger. IMO that seems to have set a market for Votto and any extension discussions. I don't think that Votto will leave town over the difference between $20 Million and $22 Million per year. But he may just want to go somewhere with a better chance to win and the Reds passive approach to contention in 2011 would probably be a factor in him deciding to leave.

Unassisted
11-17-2011, 09:18 PM
Personally, I think he will end up testing the market...but these blanket statements of assurances that he WILL test the market or that he WILL do this or that...sorry, they've just started grating on my nerves a bit.But that's what we do on message boards. We read the tidbits that the media give us... both straight up and between the lines, and we try to connect the dots from them to figure out what is happening and to anticipate what will happen.

Nowadays with Twitter and talk radio, we actually get conjecture directly from media people who talk to players. I know I tend to give their conjecture more weight than that from random message board posters. If Jim Day and John Fay tweeted that Votto has one foot out the door, then I would be more likely to think that, too. Thus, I'm guessing that a lot of the confidently-worded opinions you are reading here were formed by posters who also trust that media conjecture.

klw
11-18-2011, 08:30 AM
I never got the impression from his statements at the time of the last contract that Votto was necessarily committed to testing the market. It seemed that he was more interested in not committing himself to being somewhere long term to a certain location or franchise at that point. He came across as being thoughtful and sincere as opposed to trying to do a spin on things. It seemed like he simply wasn't ready to say he wanted to be in Cincy past the date of the deal.

Analogy: He was ready to move in with the Reds and be monogamous but wasn't going to propose until he saw how the living together went first.

Here is what he said at the time.
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110116&content_id=16445106&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb


"I don't know, as far as beyond three years," Votto said on Dec. 4, perhaps foreshadowing the deal he wound up getting. "I think it's a real unfair question to ask. This is not me saying I don't want to be here. But last year was a difficult year for me. This year was a better year for me. It's really hard for me to think three years ahead, five years ahead, seven years ahead or 10 years ahead. When [Troy] Tulowitzki signed that 10-year contract [with the Rockies], I was blown away. I can't imagine seeing myself 10 years from now saying I want to be here. It's an overwhelming thing to ask a young person like myself and say, 'Here's a lot of money. Be happy with this over 10 years, deal with it.'"


While the last part deals with the amount of money, it seems that the place, circumstances, his happiness, and ability to commit long term are the primary issues in play here.

Scrap Irony
11-18-2011, 08:35 AM
I get that feeling as well, klw. Perhaps it's simply good PR, but, in Votto's case (especially the way he seems to act at other times), I don't think it is.

That said, I'm sure leaving any money on the table will be virtually impossible. The combination of pressure from the MLBPA, his own competitive drive, and the attraction of playing in big games all season long will likely mean Votto will test the market. He may decide to stay in Cincinnati. Likely, he's going to Toronto, Baltimore (if they can't sign Fielder or Pujols this offseason), New York, LA, or another big market team.

I just hope he doesn't go to St. Louis. Then I will have to hate him with a passion.

lollipopcurve
11-18-2011, 08:35 AM
Analogy: He was ready to move in with the Reds and be monogamous

Not really. He has had no choice in the matter.

Keep in mind that while Votto might be seen as keeping things close to the vest, it could be that his not saying anything positive about Cincinnati is a sign that despite having lived in the town for 4 years now (or at least 4 baseball seasons) he really hasn't found a way to enjoy the place.

_Sir_Charles_
11-18-2011, 10:06 AM
But that's what we do on message boards. We read the tidbits that the media give us... both straight up and between the lines, and we try to connect the dots from them to figure out what is happening and to anticipate what will happen.

Nowadays with Twitter and talk radio, we actually get conjecture directly from media people who talk to players. I know I tend to give their conjecture more weight than that from random message board posters. If Jim Day and John Fay tweeted that Votto has one foot out the door, then I would be more likely to think that, too. Thus, I'm guessing that a lot of the confidently-worded opinions you are reading here were formed by posters who also trust that media conjecture.

I know that. Guessing what will happen, anticipating what will happen...all fine and good. Stating for a fact what will happen...very irritating to me lately. Nothing personal...just grating on my nerves lately.

lollipopcurve
11-18-2011, 10:11 AM
He may decide to stay in Cincinnati. Likely, he's going to Toronto, Baltimore (if they can't sign Fielder or Pujols this offseason), New York, LA, or another big market team.

Like the Cubs. Or Miami, if they don't get a big-time 1B before then.

Ron Madden
11-19-2011, 02:58 AM
I know that. Guessing what will happen, anticipating what will happen...all fine and good. Stating for a fact what will happen...very irritating to me lately. Nothing personal...just grating on my nerves lately.

I don't think anyone has ever come out and said they know that Joey is hell bent on testing the market.

The thought of it may grate on your nerves but there is a real and distinct possibility it happens.

redsmetz
11-19-2011, 07:32 AM
I don't think anyone has ever come out and said they know that Joey is hell bent on testing the market.

The thought of it may grate on your nerves but there is a real and distinct possibility it happens.

There are a number of folks on this board who have spoke with such certitude. Folks like me who have taken umbrage with that attempt to balance that because it's simply not true. He's never said anything that could be taken as definite.

I don't disagree with you that it's likely to happen and I would never been so naive to think otherwise. But Votto's never made certain what his intentions are. It's a heckuva balancing act for the club and the fans, but that's the reality we're in.

Jocketty's original statements may be a smokescreen, but it's just as likely that he's working to take that pressure off for this offseason. I don't question that his attempts to negotiate an extension are sincere. Whether he'll succeed is, of course, open to debate. As you aptly note, it's not likely to happen. Those aren't mealy mouthed qualifiers; it's just stating the present reality.

Tony Cloninger
11-19-2011, 07:20 PM
There are a number of folks on this board who have spoke with such certitude. Folks like me who have taken umbrage with that attempt to balance that because it's simply not true. He's never said anything that could be taken as definite.

I don't disagree with you that it's likely to happen and I would never been so naive to think otherwise. But Votto's never made certain what his intentions are. It's a heckuva balancing act for the club and the fans, but that's the reality we're in.

Jocketty's original statements may be a smokescreen, but it's just as likely that he's working to take that pressure off for this offseason. I don't question that his attempts to negotiate an extension are sincere. Whether he'll succeed is, of course, open to debate. As you aptly note, it's not likely to happen. Those aren't mealy mouthed qualifiers; it's just stating the present reality.

I am with you here. It seems everyone or most here are already certain that he is and no way is this team able to keep him. Do they know what the budget will be in 2013 or 2014? How the heck do they know exactly what this guy wants and how much this team could really afford by then?

jojo
11-21-2011, 12:04 AM
When a big star hits free agency, how often does he stay with his original team? Keep in mind that Votto was unwilling to sell any of his free agent years during the last round. If the reds can't extend him this offseason, I'd become very pessimistic that theyll ultimately be able to keep him.

cincyinco
11-21-2011, 01:28 AM
In order to do this you have to hope that you have a guy like Hamilton who can replace Phillips when he becomes expensive. Or a guy like Boxberger can replace a closer at a fraction of the cost. Mesoraco can replace a Hernandez and Frazier/Francisco can replace an aging Rolen at a fraction of the cost.

Wouldn't that also include a cheap Alonso replacing an expensive Votto? Why is Votto different? Because of his production? Ok. But if the guy won't stay?

The Reds need to grow a pair and make a hard decision. I hope WJ has the foresight and fortitude to make the right one.

_Sir_Charles_
11-21-2011, 09:53 AM
Wouldn't that also include a cheap Alonso replacing an expensive Votto? Why is Votto different? Because of his production? Ok. But if the guy won't stay?

The Reds need to grow a pair and make a hard decision. I hope WJ has the foresight and fortitude to make the right one.

At some point in time, the Reds have to pony up the cash to keep a player who's worth keeping when he gets expensive. Joey Votto IS that type of player. I don't know that he will stay (or that he's even interested in staying), but they need to make every effort to make it happen. The odds of Yonder replacing Votto's production is simply silly. I'd love to see him become that good, but there's nothing to indicate he will.

Dealing off players every time they hit FA is a bad way to run a club. Stability does have it's benefits too.

traderumor
11-21-2011, 09:58 AM
At some point in time, the Reds have to pony up the cash to keep a player who's worth keeping when he gets expensive. Joey Votto IS that type of player. I don't know that he will stay (or that he's even interested in staying), but they need to make every effort to make it happen. The odds of Yonder replacing Votto's production is simply silly. I'd love to see him become that good, but there's nothing to indicate he will.

Dealing off players every time they hit FA is a bad way to run a club. Stability does have it's benefits too.I'm not sure the instance of trading Adam Dunn qualifies as a history. That's the only one I can think of where the Reds have faced that decision in the current era. There was Barry Larkin before that, when Lindner caved to public sentiment, which is about the same situation they are in with Brandon Phillips now.