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I(heart)Freel
11-16-2011, 12:39 PM
According to the world of Twitter, today is a big day for BPhil. Guess he and his agent might be meeting with Walt and co. to talk contract extension.


DatDudeBP Brandon Phillips
GoodMorning... Today is the day I find out my future w/ the @Reds! Either it's going to be a GREAT day or BAD day... #FingersCrossed


What do you think? What's the offer? Accepted or no?

lollipopcurve
11-16-2011, 12:50 PM
I don't see how a day in mid-November could carry that kind of weight..... Interesting nonetheless.

dougdirt
11-16-2011, 02:43 PM
I hope not. I know what Phillips wants and what he might even be worth. I don't think he is worth it to the Reds though. I really like Phillips, but he isn't getting any younger and it isn't like the Reds don't have multiple options that have a chance of being ready when he leaves for free agency to take over for him in 2013.

RedsManRick
11-16-2011, 02:53 PM
I hope not. I know what Phillips wants and what he might even be worth. I don't think he is worth it to the Reds though. I really like Phillips, but he isn't getting any younger and it isn't like the Reds don't have multiple options that have a chance of being ready when he leaves for free agency to take over for him in 2013.

This. Objectively speaking, he deserves what he's asking to be paid. As the market goes, he can reasonably expect a big contract. But the Reds should not commit such a big chunk of payroll to a middle infielder on the wrong side of the 30. Will he age well? He very well might. But history shows us that when middle infielders (2B in particular) start to slow down, it tends to happen quickly. And on top of that, you're extending him on the back of what is almost assuredly his career year. If you can give him a deal that prices in some regression, great. But if you have to pay him as if he's definitely going to be a 4+ win player for the next 4 or 5 years, the deal is almost all downside risk.

If he wants to add a year or two, I'm open to that. But if he's looking to cash in, to make that deal that guarantees a life of comfort for his extended family in perpetuity (which he has said he is) the Reds should not be the ones to take on that risk.

Dan
11-16-2011, 03:48 PM
This. Objectively speaking, he deserves what he's asking to be paid. As the market goes, he can reasonably expect a big contract. But the Reds should not commit such a big chunk of payroll to a middle infielder on the wrong side of the 30. Will he age well? He very well might. But history shows us that when middle infielders (2B in particular) start to slow down, it tends to happen quickly. And on top of that, you're extending him on the back of what is almost assuredly his career year. If you can give him a deal that prices in some regression, great. But if you have to pay him as if he's definitely going to be a 4+ win player for the next 4 or 5 years, the deal is almost all downside risk.

If he wants to add a year or two, I'm open to that. But if he's looking to cash in, to make that deal that guarantees a life of comfort for his extended family in perpetuity (which he has said he is) the Reds should not be the ones to take on that risk.

You're right. However, the slow down doesn't typically happen until the player reaches his mid-thirties. Phillips' full-time comps include Grich (age 34: 4.4 wins; age 36: 2.9 wins), Davey Johnson (hit the wall at 30), Jeff Kent (age 37: 4.4 wins), Joe Gordon (age 34: 3.6 wins), Bret Boone (age 35: 7.1 wins). Also other similar players include Ray Durham (age 34: 3.9 wins), Ryne Sandberg (age 36: 3.8 wins), Frank White (age 35: 3.4 wins), Willie Randolph (age 36: 4.4 wins).

Definitely seems to me that the investment, unless he's asking for something outrageous, would be well worth it.

klw
11-16-2011, 03:50 PM
Phillips also posted these on Monday-


DatDudeBP Brandon Phillips
#BPMemos "It's crazy how you find out what you WANT isn't always what you NEED"
14 Nov

DatDudeBP Brandon Phillips
GoodAfternoon... This past weekend was a huge eye opener for me!!!! Hopefully, @Baseball_Aces will have great news for me this week! #OnDeck
14 Nov

From the posts over the weekend, it looks like Phillips was in NYC for the Gold Glove Awards and spent quite a bit of time with Matt Kemp. Baseball Aces are his reps.

RedsManRick
11-16-2011, 04:17 PM
You're right. However, the slow down doesn't typically happen until the player reaches his mid-thirties. Phillips' full-time comps include Grich (age 34: 4.4 wins; age 36: 2.9 wins), Davey Johnson (hit the wall at 30), Jeff Kent (age 37: 4.4 wins), Joe Gordon (age 34: 3.6 wins), Bret Boone (age 35: 7.1 wins). Also other similar players include Ray Durham (age 34: 3.9 wins), Ryne Sandberg (age 36: 3.8 wins), Frank White (age 35: 3.4 wins), Willie Randolph (age 36: 4.4 wins).

Definitely seems to me that the investment, unless he's asking for something outrageous, would be well worth it.

I'm curious what those guys were at their peaks. The aging curve for Phillips looks a lot different if you view him as a 6 win player right now than a 4 win player. I would also argue that he doesn't have any elite skill like Kent's power or Randolph's contact that is likely to stay an asset til the end. He's more Ryne Sandberg or Robbie Alomar lite. And with those guys, the age hits them all over. They lose the ability to catch up to heat at the same time they lose a step in the field.

Obviously these are all just hypotheticals. From my perspective though, as I said above, the possibility that he ages like Jeff Kent is not worth the possibility that he ages like Davey Johnson, even if the former is much more likely.

klw
11-16-2011, 05:09 PM
Update from DatDudeBP
http://twitter.com/#!/DatDudeBP

DatDudeBP Brandon Phillips
Asked my agent what we got to do to stay in #Cincinnati ... I told him, "If I got to eat lima beans, Ima eat lima beans" ~ Jerry Maguire
1 hour ago

_Sir_Charles_
11-16-2011, 05:12 PM
IMO, a player who wants to stay as badly as Phillips seems to...is exactly the kind of player you WANT to keep. I really hope he gets extended. Simply put, I don't see anybody in the system who's even CLOSE to ready to being able to replace Brandon. Especially with the leather. Torreyes is several years away.

Kc61
11-16-2011, 05:39 PM
and it isn't like the Reds don't have multiple options that have a chance of being ready when he leaves for free agency to take over for him in 2013.

The Reds have zero options to provide what Phillips provides to this team. Unless 2013 is to be the next round of tryout camp.

If Phillips is too expensive, fine, but the Reds then need to re-invest his salary in another top player. Whether it be a second sacker or someone else.

This isn't about making room for another prospect. It's about winning divisions and pennants.

dougdirt
11-16-2011, 06:14 PM
The Reds have zero options to provide what Phillips provides to this team. Unless 2013 is to be the next round of tryout camp.

If Phillips is too expensive, fine, but the Reds then need to re-invest his salary in another top player. Whether it be a second sacker or someone else.

This isn't about making room for another prospect. It's about winning divisions and pennants.

This is a common mistake made. The Reds don't have to have someone who can step in and replace Phillips. They need someone and about $11.5M, 11.5M, 10M and 8M to replace his production over the next four seasons.

Right now, the Reds have a guy who just finished AA as a second baseman who has hit .307, .320 and .302 in full season leagues with a little bit of pop and speed. Sure thing? Absolutely not. But it means that the Reds don't have to rush into making a decision on Phillips today either, when they already control him for all of 2012 and can make a decision on whether they like Rodriguez enough to offer Phillips such a deal.

And sometimes "prospects" are what get you to divisions and pennants. Both with production provided and salary relief that allows you to spend elsewhere. More than one way to skin a cat.

Kc61
11-16-2011, 06:22 PM
This is a common mistake made. The Reds don't have to have someone who can step in and replace Phillips. They need someone and about $11.5M, 11.5M, 10M and 8M to replace his production over the next four seasons.

Right now, the Reds have a guy who just finished AA as a second baseman who has hit .307, .320 and .302 in full season leagues with a little bit of pop and speed. Sure thing? Absolutely not. But it means that the Reds don't have to rush into making a decision on Phillips today either, when they already control him for all of 2012 and can make a decision on whether they like Rodriguez enough to offer Phillips such a deal.

And sometimes "prospects" are what get you to divisions and pennants. Both with production provided and salary relief that allows you to spend elsewhere. More than one way to skin a cat.

Prospects can contribute to winning teams. Usually, they contribute by complimenting the production of the team's stars.

The Reds have two stars. Votto and Phillips. If they let one of them go in favor of your AA second baseman, the team will suffer.

Now, as I said, if they let Phillips go and spend his salary on another star, that's ok with me. And it doesn't have to be a second baseman.

But the idea that a team constructed around good AA second basemen and the like will prevail against the Cards and Brewers is a fallacy IMO.

dougdirt
11-16-2011, 06:29 PM
Prospects can contribute to winning teams. Usually, they contribute by complimenting the production of the team's stars.

The Reds have two stars. Votto and Phillips. If they let one of them go in favor of your AA second baseman, the team will suffer.

Now, as I said, if they let Phillips go and spend his salary on another star, that's ok with me. And it doesn't have to be a second baseman.

But the idea that a team constructed around good AA second basemen and the like will prevail against the Cards and Brewers is a fallacy IMO.

Nowhere did I ever suggest just replacing Phillips and keeping the money in Bob's pocket was the way to go.

Where did anyone suggest you construct a team around Henry Rodriguez? Until Joey Votto is no longer a Red or Jay Bruce steps his game up to the next level or two, the team is going to be built around Joey Votto.

Brutus
11-16-2011, 06:46 PM
Update from DatDudeBP
http://twitter.com/#!/DatDudeBP

He had me at hello. He had me at... hello.

mattfeet
11-16-2011, 09:18 PM
He had me at hello. He had me at... hello.

Looks like Jocketty met with Phillips and his agents and made good progress. No deal imminent, however.

-Matt

savafan
11-16-2011, 09:30 PM
This is a common mistake made. The Reds don't have to have someone who can step in and replace Phillips. They need someone and about $11.5M, 11.5M, 10M and 8M to replace his production over the next four seasons.

Right now, the Reds have a guy who just finished AA as a second baseman who has hit .307, .320 and .302 in full season leagues with a little bit of pop and speed. Sure thing? Absolutely not. But it means that the Reds don't have to rush into making a decision on Phillips today either, when they already control him for all of 2012 and can make a decision on whether they like Rodriguez enough to offer Phillips such a deal.

And sometimes "prospects" are what get you to divisions and pennants. Both with production provided and salary relief that allows you to spend elsewhere. More than one way to skin a cat.


I see what you're saying from the on the field point of view.

However, I'd argue that Brandon Phillips is the face of this franchise, even moreso than Joey Votto. He's exciting, personable and marketable. The fans love him, adults and kids alike. Baseball is a sport, but also a business, and you not only have to factor in winning to bring fans to the ballpark, but also players that the fans want to come and see. Right now, that person that the fans want to come and see in Cincinnati is Brandon Phillips. He wants to be here. The fans want him here. You figure out a way to make that happen.

Also, he's won two gold gloves. I think a case could be made that he's the best second baseman the Reds have had since Joe Morgan. That's a long stretch. He's won two gold gloves. Even if he begins to decline defensively, I think the chances of him still being better than any potential replacement are great.

kaldaniels
11-16-2011, 09:51 PM
Stumbled across this gem from his twitter feed a few weeks back. Discuss. :lol:

"Fellas, would u rather have an attractive woman that won't satisfy your needs or an unattractive woman that will? LOL..."

_Sir_Charles_
11-16-2011, 09:58 PM
LOL. That's great.

Gallen5862
11-16-2011, 10:39 PM
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

The Reds "made good progress" with Brandon Phillips' agent today, though no long-term deal is imminent yet, tweets Jon Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer.

klw
11-17-2011, 07:37 AM
DatDudeBP Brandon Phillips
Guess we will find out another day!!!! #GoodNightMyFriends
4 hours ago
http://twitter.com/#!/DatDudeBP

klw
11-17-2011, 06:47 PM
The two side are working on a contract but are not yet close per Jocketty
http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20111117&content_id=25994906&vkey=news_cin&c_id=cin


"We've made progress, but we're not close," Jocketty said Thursday from the airport as he prepared to fly back to Cincinnati. "It will take a little bit of time. It's a complicated contract." ...
"It gets down to trying to determine the number of years and amount of dollars," Jocketty said. "We're still a ways apart on both."

dougdirt
11-17-2011, 06:49 PM
They aren't going to get close. But the Reds have to at least talk about trying it so when he leaves they can say "we tried".

klw
11-17-2011, 06:53 PM
They aren't going to get close. But the Reds have to at least talk about trying it so when he leaves they can say "we tried".

Well then lets combine all the rumors of the day and ship BPhil, Volquez, and OF Welinton Ramirez to the Phillies for Hamels and Utley. ;)

KronoRed
11-17-2011, 07:14 PM
He may be the face of the franchise now but quite quickly one can become the 'boat anchor around the payroll' face.

mdccclxix
12-02-2011, 11:41 AM
It's comments like these that make me willing to sign him 6 years 65 million:


Brandon Phillips had no new updates about the ongoing contract negotiations between he and the Reds, but he told MLB.com's Mark Sheldon that "I just want to be here forever like my idol, Barry Larkin." Phillips tweeted on Tuesday that talks were "moving in the right direction."

I really believe Phillips is a genuine guy, it's too bad it's so difficult to keep them around when they play well.

I've said before, I'm bullish on his ability to stay strong and effective into his mid 30's. I think he's a cut above most players in a range of abilities that will allow him to adjust and stay effective. I won't worry about production as much as payroll space if he's resigned.

mdccclxix
12-02-2011, 11:46 AM
He may be the face of the franchise now but quite quickly one can become the 'boat anchor around the payroll' face.

That's true. Cincinnati fans have a focus on who's earning what and can expect more than they can get. I think the fan base is ready for some trimming type of moves, if they prove productive. If they fail, the Reds will be called cheap idiots all over the radio. Really, all that is aside from, if the Reds are winning, everyone will be happy. I'd like to think that pitching will improve during this offseason. If they get a great young starter for under 10 million per and 2-3 years, I think it makes a lot of sense to keep Phillips around as well. He's part of the winning formula on both sides of the ball.

WebScorpion
12-04-2011, 03:35 AM
I've said before, I'm bullish on his ability to stay strong and effective into his mid 30's. I think he's a cut above most players in a range of abilities that will allow him to adjust and stay effective. I won't worry about production as much as payroll space if he's resigned.

I think he's actually going to get better. Especially if they keep him in the leadoff slot. As a leadoff hitter he seems to take base stealing a little more seriously and I think that's one of the few areas he can actually improve. He's also not prone to that 'home run fever' he used to get after hitting a homer in the #4 slot...he stays within himself more and takes what is given to him. I think his hitting and baserunning will improve every year for the next 2 or 3 at least. I think we will really regret letting him go if that is what happens.

redsmetz
01-04-2012, 05:51 PM
Certainly unrelated (and I did post this under the Minor League Transactions over in the other forum), but MLBTradeRumors.com reported this:


P.J. Phillips, the younger brother of Brandon Phillips, agreed to a deal with the Reds, tweets Goldstein. The younger Phillips' career never got going due to plate discipline issues.

klw
01-04-2012, 05:57 PM
PJ tweets too.
http://twitter.com/#!/404pete


404pete PJ Phillips
Thanks to everyone Congratulating me on signing with the Reds... I always dreamed to play wit @DatDudeBP.... #BlessingsComesToThoseWhoWait

RedLegSuperStar
01-04-2012, 06:25 PM
Trying to give Brandon more incentive to stay?

757690
01-04-2012, 07:09 PM
Relating to the thread title, if Brandon does play Deal or No Deal, I hope he chooses briefcase #8...

http://www.qwizx.com/gameshows/dond/dond_pilar.jpg

dougdirt
01-04-2012, 08:47 PM
Trying to give Brandon more incentive to stay?

Unless Brandon can convince his brother to literally stop swinging at everything thrown to home plate, it isn't going to matter much because he will get released. Back in 2007, he had 154 strikeouts and 15 walks. In 2008 he did a little better with 125 strikeouts and 24 walks. 2009 wasn't much better. 2011 he had 10 walks and 31 strikeouts, so maybe it's a starter. But he was also 24 and in High A for the third time.

dougdirt
01-04-2012, 08:47 PM
Relating to the thread title, if Brandon does play Deal or No Deal, I hope he chooses briefcase #8...

http://www.qwizx.com/gameshows/dond/dond_pilar.jpg

What the heck happened to that poor womans midsection?

RedsManRick
01-04-2012, 09:03 PM
What the heck happened to that poor womans midsection?

Photoshop of death!

Edd Roush
01-05-2012, 10:55 AM
My guess is that if Brandon goes PJ goes ala Carson leaving ended Jordan Palmer's career.

mth123
01-08-2012, 09:53 AM
A model for a Phillips deal?

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120107&content_id=26285730&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

Kendrick 4 years for an average of $8.325 Million per year.

Last Year Rickie Weeks signed for 4 years at an average of $9.625 per year.

If the Reds could go 4 years on Phillips starting with 2012 in the $9 Million or so range with maybe a couple million each year deferred, it might provide enough money in 2012 to address both LF and another arm or two. Phillips is clearly a better defender than either guy, but his offense has been roughly equal to Kendrick's and a step down from Weeks. Phillips is a few years older so, IMO, would need to take something closer to Kendrick than Weeks to get that 4th year. $8.5 to $9 Million or so, would seem to be his market rate. If Phillips wants to keep his $12 Million in 2012, then the next three years would need to be below $8 Million IMO.

Edd Roush
01-08-2012, 04:10 PM
A model for a Phillips deal?

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120107&content_id=26285730&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

Kendrick 4 years for an average of $8.325 Million per year.

Last Year Rickie Weeks signed for 4 years at an average of $9.625 per year.

If the Reds could go 4 years on Phillips starting with 2012 in the $9 Million or so range with maybe a couple million each year deferred, it might provide enough money in 2012 to address both LF and another arm or two. Phillips is clearly a better defender than either guy, but his offense has been roughly equal to Kendrick's and a step down from Weeks. Phillips is a few years older so, IMO, would need to take something closer to Kendrick than Weeks to get that 4th year. $8.5 to $9 Million or so, would seem to be his market rate. If Phillips wants to keep his $12 Million in 2012, then the next three years would need to be below $8 Million IMO.

Sounds right, mth. I know Phillips is a lot more willing to stay in Cincinnati than Votto, but I really don't want Phillips taking Votto's money. Phillips is likely in the decline stage of his career and I would like to have him around, but it is going to depend on the price. If it's Kendrick money, I would be down, but if it's Weeks+ I don't think so.