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HalMorrisRules
11-21-2011, 11:11 AM
Reports indicate that the Reds are looking to move forward from the Francisco Cordero era. The Reds are in talks with the A's to pick up closer Andrew Bailey. He seemed to rebound pretty well after his surgery in 2010. His WHIP has gone up every year but it is comparable to Cordero's WHIP and I am sure Bailey is much, much cheaper.


MLBTRADERUMORS (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/11/reds-talking-about-andrew-bailey-deal.html)

brad1176
11-21-2011, 11:19 AM
He's much cheaper and younger. I wonder if this could be part of a bigger trade with the A's, maybe get Gio or Cahill too?

TuneSquad
11-21-2011, 11:28 AM
I like this idea, but I am not a big fan in dealing with Billy Bean because everyone knows how good of a GM is. I say take caution redlegs...

The DARK
11-21-2011, 12:37 PM
Jocketty and Beane are both known to be very shrewd... but I really like this. Cordero's peripherals suggest a decline, and replacing an aging, $12 million/year closer with worsening peripherals with a young, first-time arb pitcher sounds like a great idea to me.

Lecure
Bray
Arredondo
Ondrusek
Masset
Bailey

That's not a bad place to start with a bullpen, especially if Arredondo keeps up his improvement. Fisher, Horst, and Burton can compete for that final spot, so next year we start to ease in Boxberger. Alternatively, since Fisher is out of options, we can include him in the deal to sweeten the pot. If one of the guys totally drops the ball, Box can be waiting in the wings.

I'd see if Grandal and Fisher are enough to get the job done.

izzy's dad
11-21-2011, 02:30 PM
If Alonso is in the deal then I want more than Bailey. Alonso, Heisey, and our Bailey for Oakland's Bailey and Gio. Deal?

dMaus14
11-21-2011, 02:38 PM
I'd rather give up Volquez and another prospect instead of Bailey.

dMaus14
11-21-2011, 02:50 PM
Sorry I meant in the Alonso, Heisey and Bailey deal for Bailey and Gio

izzy's dad
11-21-2011, 03:07 PM
I was just trying to make a more realistic trade offer. If I was a GM I wouldn't touch Volquez with a ten foot pole. Either way, I don't include Alonso in any deal that doesn't include a quality starting pitcher coming back our way.

FireDusty
11-21-2011, 04:12 PM
I would plug in Boxberger as closer and forget about it.

Boxberger is ready to save 35 games right now......for league mimimum.

texasdave
11-21-2011, 04:24 PM
Jocketty and Beane are both known to be very shrewd... but I really like this. Cordero's peripherals suggest a decline, and replacing an aging, $12 million/year closer with worsening peripherals with a young, first-time arb pitcher sounds like a great idea to me.

Lecure
Bray
Arredondo
Ondrusek
Masset
Bailey

That's not a bad place to start with a bullpen, especially if Arredondo keeps up his improvement. Fisher, Horst, and Burton can compete for that final spot, so next year we start to ease in Boxberger. Alternatively, since Fisher is out of options, we can include him in the deal to sweeten the pot. If one of the guys totally drops the ball, Box can be waiting in the wings.

I'd see if Grandal and Fisher are enough to get the job done.

Jared Burton is gone. He signed with the Twins.

HalMorrisRules
11-21-2011, 04:42 PM
I'd rather give up Volquez and another prospect instead of Bailey.

Volquez has no trade value. None, zilch, nada. To think otherwise is to look at the situation with Reds colored glasses on. There's a reason why Jayson Stark named him the 2011 NL Cy Yuk.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7029954/mlb-award-winners-2011-major-league-baseball-season

bounty37h
11-21-2011, 04:58 PM
Volquez has no trade value. None, zilch, nada. To think otherwise is to look at the situation with Reds colored glasses on. There's a reason why Jayson Stark named him the 2011 NL Cy Yuk.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7029954/mlb-award-winners-2011-major-league-baseball-season

I think Tx fans thought that a few years back and look, they got an MVP for him :)

LegallyMinded
11-21-2011, 08:20 PM
If Alonso is in the deal then I want more than Bailey. Alonso, Heisey, and our Bailey for Oakland's Bailey and Gio. Deal?

This would be a great deal for both sides: It gives the As some major-league ready offense in Alonso, and also gives them, in Heisey, an outfielder to replace DeJesus, Crisp or Willingham. At the same time, it gives the Reds the starting pitching and bullpen help they need desperately need.

I suppose dealing Alonso and Heisey would leave a hole in LF for the Reds, but there are at least some indications that Sappelt could take over. Or are there other outfield options in the Reds' minor league system?

The DARK
11-21-2011, 08:27 PM
Jared Burton is gone. He signed with the Twins.

Thanks for that update. Our bullpen is running a bit thin this year... a signing in addition to this trade might be in order.

The Rage
11-21-2011, 09:47 PM
Why would the Reds want Gio? Left handed Volquez wannabe.

Besides. Nothing would stop the Bailey-Bailey connection ;)

harmony
11-21-2011, 10:53 PM
Why would the Reds want Gio? Left handed Volquez wannabe.
Besides. Nothing would stop the Bailey-Bailey connection ;)
Edison Volquez has posted a WAR* of 5.3 in 95 career games, including 90 starts.

Gio Gonzalez, who is two years younger than Volquez, has posted a WAR of 7.3 in 95 career games, including 89 starts.

Over the past two seasons, Volquez has posted 0.6 WAR in 33 games, including 32 starts, while Gonzalez has posted 6.7 WAR in 65 games, all starts.

* Wins Above Replacement as reported at FanGraphs:
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3990&position=P
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7448&position=P

LegallyMinded
11-21-2011, 11:22 PM
Why would the Reds want Gio? Left handed Volquez wannabe.

At first I wasn't sure about this, but looking at some of their stats, the comparison is much closer than I realized: Over the last couple years, both guys have posted good SO numbers, have walked way too many people, and have xFips just under 4.

The difference in results, however, is striking: Over the last two seasons, Gio has a 3.71 FIP while Volquez has a 4.82 FIP. Moreover, Gio has pitched over 400 innings to Volquez's 171. Whatever Gio does, in short, seems to work, and he seems to actually be capable on staying the field. Gio also has the advantage of being two years younger than Volquez, so there's potentially more room for improvement as well.

JayStubbs
11-22-2011, 01:20 AM
At first I wasn't sure about this, but looking at some of their stats, the comparison is much closer than I realized: Over the last couple years, both guys have posted good SO numbers, have walked way too many people, and have xFips just under 4.

The difference in results, however, is striking: Over the last two seasons, Gio has a 3.71 FIP while Volquez has a 4.82 FIP. Moreover, Gio has pitched over 400 innings to Volquez's 171. Whatever Gio does, in short, seems to work, and he seems to actually be capable on staying the field. Gio also has the advantage of being two years younger than Volquez, so there's potentially more room for improvement as well.

What he does, is pitch in one of the pitcher friendliest parks in the majors. Which is why the Reds should stay very far away from him. Put him in GAPB, and he'd be about as good as Volquez has been the last two years.

bigredmechanism
11-22-2011, 01:32 AM
I was just trying to make a more realistic trade offer. If I was a GM I wouldn't touch Volquez with a ten foot pole.

If his value was as down as it seems to be, I think EV would be a good target for a GM looking for a reclamation project. A little over a full season off of TJ surgery, with a very good FB/CH combo. If he can get his control back, he can be a solid #3 starter, IMO.

I feel that EV might have more trade value that you think.

brad1176
11-22-2011, 09:25 AM
What he does, is pitch in one of the pitcher friendliest parks in the majors. Which is why the Reds should stay very far away from him. Put him in GAPB, and he'd be about as good as Volquez has been the last two years.

Very possible. Gio walks a LOT of batters and if he pitches in a small park, that could turn bad. I guess a question to be raised is how does he do in smaller ballparks like Fenway. Here's a link to a site that has the dimensions of each park, the numbers will surprise you.
http://www.andrewclem.com/Baseball/Dimensions.html

HalMorrisRules
11-22-2011, 11:29 AM
If his value was as down as it seems to be, I think EV would be a good target for a GM looking for a reclamation project. A little over a full season off of TJ surgery, with a very good FB/CH combo. If he can get his control back, he can be a solid #3 starter, IMO.

I feel that EV might have more trade value that you think.

GM's dont last long in this league making trades on reclamation projects and what if's. They get those guys off of the waiver wire where there is no risk but to trade anything above a journeyman A ball player to get a reclamation project puts their career in jeopardy.

Michelle
11-24-2011, 02:25 PM
I think They should get rid of Volquez and let home Baily Stay
Michelle

alett12
11-28-2011, 12:26 PM
i would rather have street than baliey since street has had some success in Coors at not giving up homers while baliey hasnt had that experince

LegallyMinded
11-28-2011, 03:30 PM
Regarding the Gio vs. EV comparisons, Fangraphs had a great article (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/a-low-cost-gio-gonzalez-alternative/) on how similar the two really are.

I'm not sure if I should be pleased the Reds have a low-cost version of Gio in house, or terrified that the Reds might give up something of value for a pitcher similar to EV.

dMaus14
11-28-2011, 03:48 PM
I would say you should feel both. I think Walt honestly has an idea of what to do with regards to trades but I hope he doesn't feel pressure to get a SP that he goes after the wrong one. Honestly all moves he's made with a personal opinion of not wanting to trade Votto have been for the future. Sign older SS til Cozart and Hamilton are ready or progress to get a better feeling of them. Trade for Rolen til Francisco is ready. Trade for and resign Hernandez til Mesoraco is ready. Yes he has had a couple of slightly misguided ones but what GM is perfect. He, and everyone else in the world thought the rotation was progressing to be something of beauty. We should thank the Lord Volquez rejected the extension (blessing in disguise). Buit if we don't get Danks, Floyd or Shields I would rather just move forward with what we have (maybe sign Erik Bedard) than trade for a Gio Gonzalez with what they are asking. Liriano for Volquez I wouldn't mind straight up because he is LHP and is from the AL, but other than that status quo is fine with me. I would rather fight for the future than try for 2 years and going into a horrible rebuilding mode.

alett12
11-29-2011, 12:17 PM
i'd like to see the reds get rid of bronson and still bring in another starter

dMaus14
11-29-2011, 01:21 PM
I completely agree and there are no delusions about it because I think its feasible. Granted bringing in another starter will have to got from FA since $7M becomes available but I think you could get something small and useful in return for Bronson. Maybe Maicier Izturis or Jed Lowrie, since they are taking on more money then you'll have to ask for a smaller return. Or maybe even a swap of contracts like Sappelt, Arroyo, and another low prospect for Nick Swisher?

LegallyMinded
11-29-2011, 02:35 PM
Given Bronson's struggles last year, I'm not sure how you would be able to move him. Maybe after spring training starts and he shows up in the best shape of his life-- i.e., fully recovered from mono-- you could convince a team that he's ready for a bounce back. Even then, though, I think it might be best to try to target whatever team gets shut out of the Darvish/Wilson/Buehrle bidding and offer Bronson as a desperation move for rotation depth.

dMaus14
11-29-2011, 03:09 PM
I don't know what's worse about our pitching situation: that we have a guy who is getting $12M a year with our payroll and is not better than a #4 starter or the fact that we truly have no better options at ML level or AAA level. I mean I think its pathetic from an organizational standpoint that:

a. we have to pitch a guy because we pay him $12M per year

b. other teams will look at him as a #4-6 and innings eater which isn't worth $12M/year

c. we can't trade him because he was our worst pitcher last year

d. even though he was our worst pitcher last year he still had the most starts and IP in the rotation

e. We litterally have no better options to take his starts and IP (Willis gone, Maloney gone, Thompson gone, Chapman hurt, People want Volquez gone) and not to mention our "ACE" only threw 156 innings, got 9 wins and only had a WAR of 2.8.

Baseball gods we need a miracle now!

alett12
11-29-2011, 03:31 PM
I completely agree and there are no delusions about it because I think its feasible. Granted bringing in another starter will have to got from FA since $7M becomes available but I think you could get something small and useful in return for Bronson. Maybe Maicier Izturis or Jed Lowrie, since they are taking on more money then you'll have to ask for a smaller return. Or maybe even a swap of contracts like Sappelt, Arroyo, and another low prospect for Nick Swisher?

god no he is way over rated and the reds outfield is full already