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View Full Version : Reds shopping Yonder Alonso for pitching.



joshua
11-25-2011, 01:41 AM
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/11/reds-shopping-yonder-alonso.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Not sure how I feel about this. I think shopping some of our OF would be better, because I really think Yonder is going to do great things...but if that's what we got to do then I'm more than for it. Yonder for Shield's straight up would be a good enough. But I'm still hesitant with Joey possibly leaving in a few years.

R_Webb18
11-25-2011, 02:20 AM
The Reds are offering Yonder Alonso as trade bait in their search for a closer

this scares me

wow

The Rage
11-25-2011, 03:40 AM
Alonso/Sappelt for Bailey. But the A's are going have to sweeten that pot(and I don't mean high bb Gio). Maybe a solid prospect back with Bailey.

I don't see Alonso bringing back a starter of value.

izzy's dad
11-25-2011, 09:58 AM
Alonso alone won't get the job done, but he would be the centerpiece of a deal that does get us an arm. I wouldn't do Alonso for Bailey straight up, but Alonso, Homer, Sappelt, and a B prospect for Bailey and Cahill gets it done in my eyes.

izzy's dad
11-25-2011, 12:44 PM
I just looked at Cahill's home/road stats... nevermind.

texasdave
11-25-2011, 02:36 PM
Walt Jocketty is a very cautious GM, so I don't think he would move Alonso for a closer. But I don't know that. And so that's a bit worrisome.

LegallyMinded
11-25-2011, 05:30 PM
Brandon McCarthy's home/road splits aren't quite as worrisome as Gio's or Cahill's. His injury history is concerning, but he finished pretty strong last year, so perhaps he's finally healthy. At any rate, I'd say he's worth a look if the Reds are trying to work out a deal with the A's.

nate1213
11-25-2011, 06:17 PM
Go to Tampa first and see how they feel about a Grandal and Alonso package for Matt Moore. If they say no then offer an Alonso and Boxberger package for Shields.

cres36
11-25-2011, 06:58 PM
alonso, grandal, and stubbs for shields and upton.... maybe have to throw someone else in to sweeten the pot

harmony
11-25-2011, 09:30 PM
My proposal is six years each of Yonder Alonso and catcher Yasmani Grandal, plus two years of starter Edinson Volquez, to Seattle for five years of Michael Pineda, one year of Brandon League, two-plus years of Chone Figgins and cash.

The pitching-poor Reds get two reigning All Star pitchers for two promising but unproven prospects who are older than Pineda but blocked by Joey Votto and Devin Mesoraco/Ryan Hanigan. Figgins (with cash) provides the Reds with a potential bounce-back leadoff hitter while the Mariners are saddled with Volquez (2011 ERA of 5.71, ERA+ of 68, WAR of negative 0.3) as a possible righthanded replacement for Pineda until James Paxton, Danny Hultzen and eventually Taijuan Walker are ready. League, an extreme-groundball pitcher well-suited for the Great American Ballpark, assumes the closer's role in Cincinnati until prospect Brad Boxberger is ready to take over.

Using the 2011 WAR for Pineda (3.4), League (1.4), Francisco Cordero (0.1) and Volquez (-0.3), the Reds would experience a full five-win upgrade over Volquez and Cordero by parting with prospects who don't have a dedicated spot in the Cincinnati lineup.

Seattle assumes a risk that Alonso won't be better than Justin Smoak, who was a higher-ranked prospect than Alonso (who is only four months younger than Smoak), or Mike Carp, the American League Rookie of the Month in August with a .313 batting average, six homeruns and 25 RBI after posting a .343/.411/.649/1.060 line with 21 homeruns in only 251 at-bats at Triple A last season.

The cash component provides the wiggle room in the negotiations.

The Rage
11-25-2011, 10:00 PM
My proposal is six years each of Yonder Alonso and catcher Yasmani Grandal, plus two years of starter Edinson Volquez, to Seattle for five years of Michael Pineda, one year of Brandon League, two-plus years of Chone Figgins and cash.

The pitching-poor Reds get two reigning All Star pitchers for two promising but unproven prospects who are older than Pineda but blocked by Joey Votto and Devin Mesoraco/Ryan Hanigan. Figgins (with cash) provides the Reds with a potential bounce-back leadoff hitter while the Mariners are saddled with Volquez (2011 ERA of 5.71, ERA+ of 68, WAR of negative 0.3) as a possible righthanded replacement for Pineda until James Paxton, Danny Hultzen and eventually Taijuan Walker are ready. League assumes the closer's role in Cincinnati until prospect Brad Boxberger is ready to take over.

Seattle assumes a risk that Alonso won't be better than Justin Smoak, who was a higher-ranked prospect than Alonso (who is only four months younger than Smoak), or Mike Carp, the American League Rookie of the Month in August with a .313 batting average, six homeruns and 25 RBI after posting a .343/.411/.649/1.060 line with 21 homeruns in only 251 at-bats at Triple A last season.

The cash component provides the wiggle room in the negotiations.

Pitching poor the Reds ain't. They got holes, but talent is already there. Overreaction has become a Reds fan past time.

The Rage
11-25-2011, 10:04 PM
Alonso alone won't get the job done, but he would be the centerpiece of a deal that does get us an arm. I wouldn't do Alonso for Bailey straight up, but Alonso, Homer, Sappelt, and a B prospect for Bailey and Cahill gets it done in my eyes.

Cahill bores me. Nothing the A's have from a starting pitching pov interest me.

harmony
11-25-2011, 10:08 PM
Pitching poor the Reds ain't. They got holes, but talent is already there. Overreaction has become a Reds fan past time.
Cincinnati's pitching numbers over the past two years -- including the 2010 NL Central champs -- suggest otherwise:

http://www.fangraphs.com/teams.aspx?pos=all&lg=all&stats=pit&type=8&season=2011&month=0&season1=2010

dMaus14
11-25-2011, 10:11 PM
Make calls about Gio, Cahill, Danks, Floyd, Shields and Garza! If no go on any of them then proceed with what we have. I do not think we should give up Alonso and Grandal in the same trade unless it's for 2 pitchers and a total of 6 years control between them. If there's one GM I'd look at first it would be Kenny Williams. He would be the type of GM to take quantity in a trade and not necessarily quality. He will probably want 2-3 top 10 prospects plus 2-3 ML ready for a combination of Floyd and Danks.

Corcinco, Grandal, Sappelt + Volquez, Wood for: Danks and Floyd.

We must have a trade and sign though.

You have 5 SP and Homer Bailey left to use however. LEAVE Chapman in the pen and use him as the CL. Sign Jorge Soler. Trade Nick Masset for Jed Lowrie. Offense will be there, you solved SP, sign 1-2 BP arms, what's the real gain in having a good defensive LF? Alonso will be fine.

The Rage
11-26-2011, 05:17 PM
Cincinnati's pitching numbers over the past two years -- including the 2010 NL Central champs -- suggest otherwise:

http://www.fangraphs.com/teams.aspx?pos=all&lg=all&stats=pit&type=8&season=2011&month=0&season1=2010

It is called "Great American Ballpark" or "GAB". Inflates hitting and pitching. The numbers show park adjusted, the Reds were a bit above average in 2010 and a bit below in 2011 as a pitching team. With a bunch of young arms looking for consistancy, it is no surprise. I believe, however, we are nearing that time.

I really think people don't understand how hard it is to pitch in GAB. Put Bailey in Oakland(especially with a mechanical tweek to improve his arm speed and health) and he would be the ace before opening day.

Billy Hamilton's Legs
11-26-2011, 06:13 PM
Michael Pineda sounds better than shields imo.

harmony
11-26-2011, 07:13 PM
It is called "Great American Ballpark" or "GAB". Inflates hitting and pitching. The numbers show park adjusted, the Reds were a bit above average in 2010 and a bit below in 2011 as a pitching team. With a bunch of young arms looking for consistancy, it is no surprise. I believe, however, we are nearing that time.

I really think people don't understand how hard it is to pitch in GAB. Put Bailey in Oakland(especially with a mechanical tweek to improve his arm speed and health) and he would be the ace before opening day.
That's why I provided Wins Above Replacement (WAR) from FanGraphs, which takes into account differences in venues. To use another measure, last season the Reds were 13th in the National League in ERA+, which also takes into account the pitchers' ballpark:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/2011.shtml

The 2010 NL Central champs were eighth in the league in ERA+.

Just as a pitcher going from Oakland or Seattle to Cincinnati can expect a higher ERA, a hitter going from Cincinnati to Oakland or Seattle can expect a lower OPS.

Eric the Red
11-27-2011, 06:56 PM
From http://www.csnchicago.com/blog/whitesox-talk/post/Sox-evaluating-Reds-Alonso?blockID=601150&feedID=10338

"According to the Chicago Tribune's Phil Rogers, the White Sox are trying to figure out if Yonder Alonso can be an everyday left fielder, with the thought the Reds' top prospect could be a return in a trade involving John Danks or Gavin Floyd."

Danks is arb eligible for the 3rd time and wil be a FA after the 2012 season. Floyd is also arb eligible for the 3rd time in 2012 but has a team option for 2013 as well. I just don't think one year of one of either those two at roughly 7-8 mil is worthy of 5 more years of Alonso, regardless of how bad his defense is. Now if Ken Williams wants to trade Quentin and Danks for Yonder I'll talk if I'm Walt.

izzy's dad
11-27-2011, 08:46 PM
Yonder for either one straight up is fine with me. A Josh Willingham signing would go great with this move. Willingham in a Reds uniform is #1 on my Christmas list.

izzy's dad
11-27-2011, 09:05 PM
Just looking at their stats on fangraphs.com, if I had my choice I would go with Danks. He is a lefty, younger, and gives up less longballs. Velocity, and K per nine are very similar, as are the walks, I like his age and the fact that he is a southpaw. Haven't looked at the contract situation, I don't want a one year guy. Trade Alonso to the White Sox for Danks, and give 3 years 28 mil. to Willingham. Keep Chapman in the pen (looks that way anyhow), and our SP, LF, Closer problems are solved.

Cueto, Danks, Leake, Arroyo, Bailey in the rotation

Phillips, Heisey, Votto, Willingham, Bruce, Rolen, Cozart, Mesoraco everyday lineup

Lecure, Bray, Arredondo, Masset, Ondrusek, Chapman, Volquez bullpen

Cairo, Frazier, Stubbs, Hannigan bench

Maybe it is a pipe dream, but I like the way that looks. Obviously a signing of Willingham is a stretch, and all but eliminates Brandon Phillips returning after this year. But if the Reds are out of it around the trade deadline you can move Phillips for prospects. I just drool at the thought of Willingham hitting between Votto, and Bruce with half of his at bats coming at GABP. Danks I believe would see a little bit of improvement coming to the NL from the AL. The ball parks are similar, so I believe the change shouldn't affect him negatively. I am getting pumped playing armchair GM, good times.

The Rage
11-27-2011, 09:05 PM
That's why I provided Wins Above Replacement (WAR) from FanGraphs, which takes into account differences in venues. To use another measure, last season the Reds were 13th in the National League in ERA+, which also takes into account the pitchers' ballpark:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/2011.shtml

The 2010 NL Central champs were eighth in the league in ERA+.

Just as a pitcher going from Oakland or Seattle to Cincinnati can expect a higher ERA, a hitter going from Cincinnati to Oakland or Seattle can expect a lower OPS.

WAR is flawed because it only takes what a player does, not what factors he is up against on the negative side. Hence, GAB is a permanent problem in that WAR cannot factor what GAB hurts on the downside, rather the helping on the upside. In otherwords, if Bailey goes a extra inning at GAB, it helps his WAR more than in San Fran, but if he gives up his homer in GAB that would have been caught in San Fran, it hurts his WAR to much.

FireDusty
11-27-2011, 09:28 PM
Danks and Floyd are no better than what we already have.

No thanks.

FireDusty
11-27-2011, 09:32 PM
Yonder for either one straight up is fine with me. A Josh Willingham signing would go great with this move. Willingham in a Reds uniform is #1 on my Christmas list.

Might as well give him away.

Either of those pitchers would be dismal, Eric Milton epic failures at GABP.

If another MLB Team thinks it's worth giving up a good starting pitcher so Alonzo can play left field for them......then he should play left field for us.

We have guys that can put up Danks and/or Floyd numbers right here...right now.

FireDusty
11-27-2011, 09:36 PM
Yonder for either one straight up is fine with me. A Josh Willingham signing would go great with this move. Willingham in a Reds uniform is #1 on my Christmas list.Just what we need...an older version of Drew Stubbs...without the speed...only able to play left field.......dude is going to be 33 this summer.

Please.

dMaus14
11-27-2011, 10:00 PM
I must say I am torn between the news of the White Sox wanting Alonso for Floyd or Danks. I Would love to have them both and think we could give them the prospects they want to get them but if there is one prospect we should hold on to it is Alonso. Before 2013, either when the Reds can't or don't want to sign Votto we have safety blanket for his departure. I mean I would give up Sappelt, Corcinco, Francisco, Heisey, Frazier, Wood, Volquez, Bailey, hell I'd give up Grandal (not in thre same trade) but not Alonso.

Either way I'd demand a sign and trade (4/$42- 9,10,11,12) for Danks

izzy's dad
11-27-2011, 10:03 PM
Just what we need...an older version of Drew Stubbs...without the speed...only able to play left field.......dude is going to be 33 this summer.

Please.

How is he an older version of Stubbs? He struck out alot last season, but if you look at his career numbers it is not a patern. He hit over 30 home runs and drove in over ninety runs last season with most of his at bats in AL west parks. He plays a decent outfield, much better than what we have endured the past decade with Dunn, Gomes, etc. and far better than Alonso. He would see a ton of good pitches hitting behind Votto, and is the right handed hitting power bat that happens to play left field that we lack. I don't see anything wrong with this idea other than he is likely too expensive for the Reds. I may sound like I am starting the Josh Willingham fan club, but I think it is a good fit. The likelyhood that Walt finds a starting pitcher that meets our lofty standards by dangling unproven albeit talented prospects is highly unlikely. If we can't pitch with them then we can at least try and pummel them offensively. If what this board is saying is true, that Danks, Flloyd, Gio Gonzales, etc. are not upgrades, then I am sorry, but we will not see an upgrade in the rotation. I either grab an offensive upgrade, trade for some pitching that at the very least will give you innings and help the bullpen, and go to war with that. Willingham is an older Stubbs is a joke, and so is the idea that Walt is going to get a top of the rotation arm for anything less than Alonso, Mesoraco/Grandal, and guys like Hamilton, Corcino, etc.

Pony Boy
11-27-2011, 10:13 PM
The answer is so obvious... TRADE JOEY VOTTO.

Keep Alonso. Trade Votto for starting pitching and whatever else you want. Win World Series.

dMaus14
11-27-2011, 10:17 PM
Who has averaged 200 IP with a 3.75 ERA for the past 4 years? Or 195 IP with a 4.00 ERA? What pitcher on our staff has done either set of stats?

izzy's dad
11-27-2011, 10:27 PM
Who has averaged 200 IP with a 3.75 ERA for the past 4 years? Or 195 IP with a 4.00 ERA? What pitcher on our staff has done either set of stats?

The answer is no one. That is why it would be a good deal in my opinion. The ball parks give up similar homer numbers, I don't see an issue. The only issue is that the people on this board seem to want Nolan Ryan for Yonder Alonso and junk type of deals. It isn't realistic. An Alonso and a lower level prospect for Danks is a very fair deal, and one that works for both teams.

dMaus14
11-27-2011, 10:28 PM
What Reds' pitcher has averaged 200 IP and a 3.75 ERA or 195 IP with a 4.00 ERA over the past 4 years? Better find one under 30! BC John Danks and Gavin Floyd have in a hitters park in the AL. So if they're an option yes please!

dMaus14
11-27-2011, 10:30 PM
Don't know why buy it didn't show up when I pressed submit so I typed it again! Sorry

harmony
11-27-2011, 10:32 PM
We have guys that can put up Danks and/or Floyd numbers right here...right now.
Last season Johny Cueto's WAR of 2.8 was the only Reds pitching WAR about 1.5 while Gavin Floyd posted a WAR of 3.6 and John Danks a WAR of 3.2. Over the past two seasons, Cueto has a WAR of 5.6, Floyd a WAR of 7.9 and Danks a WAR of 7.5.

ERA+ treats the Cincinnati pitchers more kindly because the stat does not rise with an increase in the valuable innings pitched. Last season Cueto has an ERA+ of 169, Mike Leake 101, Homer Bailey 88, Travis Wood 81, Bronson Arroyo 77 and Edinson Volquez 68. Danks and Floyd came in at 98 and 97, respectively.

Eric the Red
11-27-2011, 10:57 PM
I prefer Danks and he is only a one year rental. I just don't think one year of Danks is worthy of five years of Alonso. I'd also argue two years of Floyd isn't as good as five years of Yonder.

LegallyMinded
11-27-2011, 10:58 PM
Danks and Floyd are no better than what we already have.

No thanks.

Danks's WAR over the last three years: 2.9, 4.3, 3.2

Floyd's WAR over the last three years: 4.5, 4.3, 3.6

Number of Reds pitchers who have put up a season of 2.9 WAR or more over the last three years: Zero

Basically, you have to go back to Edison Volquez's 2008 season to find a performance by a Reds pitcher that is comparable to what Floyd and Danks have been consistently cranking out over the last several years. Either one would be a welcome upgrade for the rotation.

Personally, I'd prefer Danks: He's younger, and his K/9, BB/9 and xFIP have all been trending in the right direction the last few seasons. If we could trade for him and take advantage of his peak few years here, it would go a long way to helping the Reds compete.

dMaus14
11-27-2011, 11:02 PM
The answer is so obvious... TRADE JOEY VOTTO.

Keep Alonso. Trade Votto for starting pitching and whatever else you want. Win World Series.

I still think this is the best option for multiple reasons:
1) additional wild card gives is breathing room for performance from younger hitters
2) will provide best return out of everyone on the roster (Escobar and Morrow??)
3) still leaves us with prospects to trade for other upgrades
4) financial flexibility
5) sustained competitiveness; no two year all in plan then 4 years of rebuilding

izzy's dad
11-28-2011, 12:10 AM
Not to derail the thread but if we trade Votto to the Blue Jays I want more than Morrow and Escobar. I would want both of them, plus Marisnik and a pitching prospect.

Back to the Danks talk. He would likely be a rental unless locked up. He is only 26, I would want to keep him in town for longer than one season. Would a deal similar to Cueto's work. For a quality starting pitcher I think ownership would have to pony up the dough. See, now I am getting all excited. I keep checking twitter to see if the Reds have made any moves. I miss baseball.

dMaus14
11-28-2011, 12:17 AM
Side note: I was thinking Deck McGuire but I think it's feasible. Back to Danks ... I personally wouldn't mind overselling for both Danks and Floyd as long as Alonso isn't involved and we get guaranteed sign and trades. I mean looking at extensions made the past couple of years: I would go with why I said earlier for Danks 4 years/ $42 (9-10-11-12)

FireDusty
11-28-2011, 08:40 AM
The last time we traded a first basemen we had no room for to the White Sox, he hit......to date....389 homeruns & has a legit chance at 500 Homeruns with no hint of roid use.......which is a Hall of Fame career.

I am telling you all right now.....if the Cincinnati Reds are dumb enough to trade Votto's replacement....a guy that will be an offensive force in this game for the next 10 years...then we deserve whatever failure we achieve.

If the Reds keep screwing around....we will be sitting here in 2 years..watching Votto & Alonzo combine for 70 homeruns and 200 RBI................for someone else.

Does anyone have Scott Hattebergs number?

izzy's dad
11-28-2011, 09:14 AM
If you don't want to trade Alonso that is fine with me... if he can play left field. I am sure the White Sox would be interested in Grandal seeing as how they really don't have quality catching prospects close to the bigs. A package of Grandal, Wood, Stubbs, etc. might get it done. I am not Kenny Williams, but I would def start with that and go from there. If they absolutely must have Alonso, then why not build a package around him and go for both Danks, and Carlos Quentin? Just throwing stuff at the wall here.

FireDusty
11-28-2011, 11:33 AM
If you don't want to trade Alonso that is fine with me... if he can play left field. I am sure the White Sox would be interested in Grandal seeing as how they really don't have quality catching prospects close to the bigs. A package of Grandal, Wood, Stubbs, etc. might get it done. I am not Kenny Williams, but I would def start with that and go from there. If they absolutely must have Alonso, then why not build a package around him and go for both Danks, and Carlos Quentin? Just throwing stuff at the wall here.

I just really don't see the Reds getting better via trade unless we trade Votto. Votto has the kind of value you need to get a difference maker for the rotation.

I love Votto, but it's foolish to think this club is a title contender next year. In 2010...the division winner was clearly the weakest team in the playoffs in all of baseball. At best..Walt could catch lightening in a bottle and have a division winner in 2012...only to get beat in the playoffs.

If the club wants to truly go long haul and build toward something that will last, they need to either increase payroll drastically (never ever gonna happen), or trade Votto while his value is at it's zenith.

As great as Votto is, he plays first base. If we trade him now, we have a replacement that will do very well in his absense.

brad1176
11-28-2011, 12:01 PM
As great as Votto is, he plays first base. If we trade him now, we have a replacement that will do very well in his absense.

We THINK he will do well. He's never been through a full major league season. This is the problem that we have, on one hand we have Votto, a proven MLB player that has an MVP trophy. On the other, a young player that has a lot of potential. We have no idea what Alonso will do in a full season.

alett12
11-28-2011, 12:24 PM
Does anyone else on here realize the reds have 6 guys on the 40 man roster OTHER than Votto and Alonso who can play 1st?

izzy's dad
11-28-2011, 12:42 PM
Sure Alonso, Frazier, Cairo, etc. can play first. But NONE are MVP caliber players. Votto is the only pure hitter on the roster, the rest are either unproven, or can't sniff Votto's production. Alonso may turn out to be an all star caliber player, or he may not. If you trade Votto you are taking a gamble on Alonso. We know what we have in Votto, the rest are relatively unknown options. If you can get a #2 type pitcher like Danks straight up for Alonso you do it and you don't look back.

dMaus14
11-28-2011, 01:51 PM
While I agree that Alonso is a 1B/DH and not a left fielder I believe that one of the 2 have to go. I think the Reds biggest decision this off season should be is there any chance Joey Votto will sign long term. I say no chance because he wouldn't even give up 1 year of free agency in his current deal. He is going to get more than what Fielder gets and that's 8/$200. It is not good business to have a $22/yr on the payroll when your annually in the bottom third of the league in payroll. Yes Bob may be cheap by not bumping payroll but it's his money and it's Walt's job to win in the constraints given to him. Look Votto is a phenomenal player worth a lot either financially or player return. But as a small market team if you have a replacement at a cheaper price then you should trade the expensive version.

You want 3 trades that I think will get us pitching and make us overall better in 2012 and on:

Send Votto and Francisco to Toronto for Morrow, Escobar, McGuire, Snider/or another Pitching prospect (save $2m in salary)

Send Corcinco, Sappelt, Bailey, Frazier to White Sox for Danks (sign and trade; take on about $6-7m)

Send Masset to Boston for Jed Lowrie (save $1m in salary)

Overall you take on about $6m for a legit SS/leadoff (signed for 4yr/ $5 per); a # 2 and #3 SP; what will be our upper level SP prospect in McGuire; power LH bat in the OF at a cheap price in Snider; an extremely high potential utility man in Lowrie;

You still have about $9m to spend on FA or for trades;

C: Hanigan, Mesoraco
1B: Alonso
2B: Phillips, Cairo
3B: Rolen, Lowrie
SS: Escobar, Cozart
LF: Heisey, Snider
CF: Stubbs
RF: Bruce

1: Cueto
2: Danks
3: Morrow
4: Leake
5: Arroyo / Wood

Bullpen: Lecure, Arredondo, Bray, Ondrusek, Boxberger, FA
* possible FA RP: Rauch, Francisco, Gaudin, Capps, Gonzalez
CL: Chapman

I also would look into trading Cozart and Heisey to the Braves for Martin Prado and Zack Gilmartin, LHP. You could have Prado play LF, 3B if Rolen goes down or 2B if they decide to move Phillips. Small market teams need multiple utility guys to excel. If you execute that trade your lineup would be:

1. Escobar - SS
2. Prado - LF
3. Alonso - 1B
4. Phillips - 2B
5. Bruce - RF
6. Rolen - 3B
7. Stubbs - CF
8. Hanigan - C

With a very lethal bench offensively in Lowire, Mesoraco, Snider. Maybe I'm dreaming but not because the trades don't even out because I honestly think we give away more than we get but that is a young and a pretty proven team while keeping our top 3 prospects and added to the pitching staff. With the additional WC we will be a favorite to make the playoff. We still have money to spend along with the possibilities to long term deals with Alonso (similar to Longoria deal), Danks + Morrow by the time they cost big money Arroyo will be off the books (similar to Shields deals: 4yr/$42m for Danks at 9-10-11-12 and Morrow to 4yr/$36m at 5-9-10-12. Leake (Clay Buchholz = 4yr/$20m at 2-4-6-8 with $10m option).

Sorry i took this armchair GM too far but I got excited.

Pony Boy
11-28-2011, 02:46 PM
Send Corcinco, Sappelt, Bailey, Frazier to White Sox for Danks (sign and trade; take on about $6-7m)



Is Danks even better than Bailey? I'm not convinced that he is.

FireDusty
11-28-2011, 03:01 PM
We THINK he will do well. He's never been through a full major league season. This is the problem that we have, on one hand we have Votto, a proven MLB player that has an MVP trophy. On the other, a young player that has a lot of potential. We have no idea what Alonso will do in a full season.
No idea? Really?

FireDusty
11-28-2011, 03:04 PM
While I agree that Alonso is a 1B/DH and not a left fielder I believe that one of the 2 have to go. I think the Reds biggest decision this off season should be is there any chance Joey Votto will sign long term. I say no chance because he wouldn't even give up 1 year of free agency in his current deal. He is going to get more than what Fielder gets and that's 8/$200. It is not good business to have a $22/yr on the payroll when your annually in the bottom third of the league in payroll. Yes Bob may be cheap by not bumping payroll but it's his money and it's Walt's job to win in the constraints given to him. Look Votto is a phenomenal player worth a lot either financially or player return. But as a small market team if you have a replacement at a cheaper price then you should trade the expensive version.

You want 3 trades that I think will get us pitching and make us overall better in 2012 and on:

Send Votto and Francisco to Toronto for Morrow, Escobar, McGuire, Snider/or another Pitching prospect (save $2m in salary)

Send Corcinco, Sappelt, Bailey, Frazier to White Sox for Danks (sign and trade; take on about $6-7m)

Send Masset to Boston for Jed Lowrie (save $1m in salary)

Overall you take on about $6m for a legit SS/leadoff (signed for 4yr/ $5 per); a # 2 and #3 SP; what will be our upper level SP prospect in McGuire; power LH bat in the OF at a cheap price in Snider; an extremely high potential utility man in Lowrie;

You still have about $9m to spend on FA or for trades;

C: Hanigan, Mesoraco
1B: Alonso
2B: Phillips, Cairo
3B: Rolen, Lowrie
SS: Escobar, Cozart
LF: Heisey, Snider
CF: Stubbs
RF: Bruce

1: Cueto
2: Danks
3: Morrow
4: Leake
5: Arroyo / Wood

Bullpen: Lecure, Arredondo, Bray, Ondrusek, Boxberger, FA
* possible FA RP: Rauch, Francisco, Gaudin, Capps, Gonzalez
CL: Chapman

I also would look into trading Cozart and Heisey to the Braves for Martin Prado and Zack Gilmartin, LHP. You could have Prado play LF, 3B if Rolen goes down or 2B if they decide to move Phillips. Small market teams need multiple utility guys to excel. If you execute that trade your lineup would be:

1. Escobar - SS
2. Prado - LF
3. Alonso - 1B
4. Phillips - 2B
5. Bruce - RF
6. Rolen - 3B
7. Stubbs - CF
8. Hanigan - C

With a very lethal bench offensively in Lowire, Mesoraco, Snider. Maybe I'm dreaming but not because the trades don't even out because I honestly think we give away more than we get but that is a young and a pretty proven team while keeping our top 3 prospects and added to the pitching staff. With the additional WC we will be a favorite to make the playoff. We still have money to spend along with the possibilities to long term deals with Alonso (similar to Longoria deal), Danks + Morrow by the time they cost big money Arroyo will be off the books (similar to Shields deals: 4yr/$42m for Danks at 9-10-11-12 and Morrow to 4yr/$36m at 5-9-10-12. Leake (Clay Buchholz = 4yr/$20m at 2-4-6-8 with $10m option).

Sorry i took this armchair GM too far but I got excited.Nice effort.

brad1176
11-28-2011, 03:13 PM
No idea? Really?

So you are saying that you do know for sure what Alonso will do in a full year of MLB? You have some sort of crystal ball that the rest of us don't have? Many great prospects end just as that, prospects. They don't adjust to a full year of MLB. Todd Van Poppel and Billy Beane ring a bell?

dMaus14
11-28-2011, 03:14 PM
Is Danks even better than Bailey? I'm not convinced that he is.

Really? Are you kidding me?

John Danks over the past 4 years has average 200 IP and a 3.75 ERA with an averaged 3.9 WAR, while pitching in the AL at a hitter friendly park. Yea I would say that's better. Name one Red that has done that in the NL over the past 4 years. Izzy's Dad will you provide the answer because you have already! Hell name a Reds SP who has had is a 3.9 in one year.

Cueto ('08 -'11)
highest IP: 185
highest WAR: 2.8
average ERA: 3.79

Leake ('10 - '11)
highest IP: 167
highest WAR: 1.5
Average ERA: 4.03

Bailey ('08 - "11)
highest IP: 132
highest WAR: 1.9
average ERA: 5.3

Those are supposed to be our #1-3 and we don't think that John Danks is worth the trade.

dMaus14
11-28-2011, 03:37 PM
Let me ask this question about Alonso's production in place of Votto's. What is difference between Alonso taking over at 1B than Cozart taking over at SS (39 AB) or Francisco taking over at 3B (97 AB)? Are they all 3 not unknowns? Everyone seems to want to get rid Alonso who could produce a 3 WAR and doesn't become arbitration eligible until 2015 for a SP to anchor a horrific rotation. I mean Cueto threw amazingly and only had a 2.8 WAR and 9 wins. Mike Leake threw the 2nd most innings (behind Bronson) and only had a 1.5 WAR. We want to trade Alonso for SP but have 2-3 huge ?? at LF, SS and 3rd. Say we sign Willingham, we still have question marks at 3B and SS, not to mention tough Mesoraco looks like the real deal he is a ??. Why not trade Votto and get a SS, SP and SP prospects plus payroll flexibilty?

izzy's dad
11-28-2011, 03:40 PM
Once again the answer to the Danks question is none. No Reds pitcher has pitched as well as Danks over the course of their career. And this board thinks he is not worth picking up. What if Cueto/ Leake go down this season? Then what. At this point Homer Bailey is what he is, a very mediocre at best pitcher. John Danks would instantly become this rotations 1 or 1a. While he is no ace, Danks is a very solid 2, or great 3. There really is no argument, the stats bear this out.

brad1176
11-28-2011, 04:00 PM
Let me ask this question about Alonso's production in place of Votto's. What is difference between Alonso taking over at 1B than Cozart taking over at SS (39 AB) or Francisco taking over at 3B (97 AB)? Are they all 3 not unknowns? Everyone seems to want to get rid Alonso who could produce a 3 WAR and doesn't become arbitration eligible until 2015 for a SP to anchor a horrific rotation. I mean Cueto threw amazingly and only had a 2.8 WAR and 9 wins. Mike Leake threw the 2nd most innings (behind Bronson) and only had a 1.5 WAR. We want to trade Alonso for SP but have 2-3 huge ?? at LF, SS and 3rd. Say we sign Willingham, we still have question marks at 3B and SS, not to mention tough Mesoraco looks like the real deal he is a ??. Why not trade Votto and get a SS, SP and SP prospects plus payroll flexibilty?

The difference is we don't have a former MVP and Gold Glover in the prime of their career at SS or 3b that they would be replacing.

izzy's dad
11-28-2011, 10:16 PM
Let me ask this question about Alonso's production in place of Votto's. What is difference between Alonso taking over at 1B than Cozart taking over at SS (39 AB) or Francisco taking over at 3B (97 AB)? Are they all 3 not unknowns? Everyone seems to want to get rid Alonso who could produce a 3 WAR and doesn't become arbitration eligible until 2015 for a SP to anchor a horrific rotation. I mean Cueto threw amazingly and only had a 2.8 WAR and 9 wins. Mike Leake threw the 2nd most innings (behind Bronson) and only had a 1.5 WAR. We want to trade Alonso for SP but have 2-3 huge ?? at LF, SS and 3rd. Say we sign Willingham, we still have question marks at 3B and SS, not to mention tough Mesoraco looks like the real deal he is a ??. Why not trade Votto and get a SS, SP and SP prospects plus payroll flexibilty?

I'm not throwing out the idea of trading Joey Votto, but replacing Joey who is only getting better it seems, with an unknown in Alonso is frightening. I would like to see the Reds really go for it. The current landscape of Major League Baseball does not allow a team with the Reds limited payroll to contend on a yearly basis. Except for the Tampa Rays who happen to be the most brilliantly run franchise in all of professional sports. If the Reds were to trade Alonso, Grandal, etc. for pitching upgrades, sign a good power/run producing bat in Willingham, and get similar or improved production from the current core players (ie: Votto, Bruce, Phillips, Cueto, Leake, Heisey, etc.), I believe that they can seriously contend for the playoffs this season. There are always going to be question marks on the Reds roster, the payroll is too limited to fill every hole. I guess teams like the Reds have to be really strong in a couple of areas and hope that those strengths cover up the weaknesses. That is why I am so strongly pushing for the Reds to sign Willingham. Stick his bat in between Votto and Bruce, and watch all three hitters benefit. With Phillips and Heisey at the top, Votto, Bruce, and Willingham in the middle, and Cozart, Rolen, and Mesoraco in the bottom half this team offensively could be crazy. Throw Danks in the rotation to eat up innings and provide quality starts and the rotation isn't quite as ugly as it is currently constructed.
If you trade Votto now, none of my crazy armchair GM pipedreams will become reality. :)

dMaus14
11-28-2011, 10:28 PM
After doing some research, the stats that I have found is Votto and Alonso's AAA OPS is very similar (about .870 for both). Now I know that those numbers don't mean that Alonso is going to be an MVP in 4 years at 28 like Votto but I do think it can give a broader perspective. The one stat that did stand out was Votto's final year in AAA he had 22 HR and Alonso only had 12. But like Votto, his OBP and SLG has grown every year. I do think that by his arbitration year/2015 he could be similar to the stats that Votto has put up.

dMaus14
11-28-2011, 10:46 PM
Also, because of the park we play in I don't think offense will be tough to come by. Yes, signing a bat like Willingham will automatically add offense. I mean the difference between our offense last year and our pitching last year was we had no one to play in LF, 3B or SS. We had pitching who either underachieved or we just found isn't that good. Either way the offense will be in the top 10 in runs scored, OPS and HR with or without Votto.

harmony
11-28-2011, 11:06 PM
After doing some research, the stats that I have found is Votto and Alonso's AAA OPS is very similar (about .870 for both). Now I know that those numbers don't mean that Alonso is going to be an MVP in 4 years at 28 like Votto but I do think it can give a broader perspective. The one stat that did stand out was Votto's final year in AAA he had 22 HR and Alonso only had 12. But like Votto, his OBP and SLG has grown every year. I do think that by his arbitration year/2015 he could be similar to the stats that Votto has put up.
For what it's worth, Bill James projects a 2012 line of .277/.345/.446/.791 for Yonder Alonso with 11 homeruns and 44 RBI in 371 plate appearances:

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2530&position=1B/OF

dMaus14
11-28-2011, 11:40 PM
Based on Bill James projections and rates of performance if Alonso got as many PA as Votto got his stats would be:

AVG - .277
OBP - .345
SLG - .446
PA - 680
AB - 616
Hits - 171
HR - 20
3B - 2
2B - 40
1B - 109
RBI - 81
Runs - 68
BB - 64
SO - 112

FireDusty
11-29-2011, 09:36 AM
So you are saying that you do know for sure what Alonso will do in a full year of MLB? You have some sort of crystal ball that the rest of us don't have? Many great prospects end just as that, prospects. They don't adjust to a full year of MLB. Todd Van Poppel and Billy Beane ring a bell?

I think he's very projectable becasue of his plate discipline. Young guys like Fransisco are much harder to project. Historically, guys that have a great idea of the strikezone don't just fall off the table and stop hitting.

Conversely, guys like Fransisco have put up impressive numbers in AAA for 100 years and history is strewn with guys like him that fail at the big league level.

I think the question about Alonzo is defense. You won't find anybody at the MLB level that feels like he's not gonna hit...I promise you. His approach is outstanding & I could envision him being a Votto type hitter. Alonzo is good enough that we may have the same problem we now have with Votto & that's our inability to afford him.....but that is 5 years away. Votto's issue is right now.

FireDusty
11-29-2011, 09:39 AM
I'm not throwing out the idea of trading Joey Votto, but replacing Joey who is only getting better it seems, with an unknown in Alonso is frightening. I would like to see the Reds really go for it. The current landscape of Major League Baseball does not allow a team with the Reds limited payroll to contend on a yearly basis. Except for the Tampa Rays who happen to be the most brilliantly run franchise in all of professional sports. If the Reds were to trade Alonso, Grandal, etc. for pitching upgrades, sign a good power/run producing bat in Willingham, and get similar or improved production from the current core players (ie: Votto, Bruce, Phillips, Cueto, Leake, Heisey, etc.), I believe that they can seriously contend for the playoffs this season. There are always going to be question marks on the Reds roster, the payroll is too limited to fill every hole. I guess teams like the Reds have to be really strong in a couple of areas and hope that those strengths cover up the weaknesses. That is why I am so strongly pushing for the Reds to sign Willingham. Stick his bat in between Votto and Bruce, and watch all three hitters benefit. With Phillips and Heisey at the top, Votto, Bruce, and Willingham in the middle, and Cozart, Rolen, and Mesoraco in the bottom half this team offensively could be crazy. Throw Danks in the rotation to eat up innings and provide quality starts and the rotation isn't quite as ugly as it is currently constructed.
If you trade Votto now, none of my crazy armchair GM pipedreams will become reality. :)

So where does the money to sign Votto come from?

Nobody here disagree's about wanting him. Do you suggest we just let it play out and get nothing?

What is your plan?

What is see in your approach is selling the farm for a 91-71 record next year & then a fire sale...and then another 10 years of losing.....all so we can "go for it"

dMaus14
11-29-2011, 12:06 PM
Here's the other problem I see with people wanting to give up Alonso and keep Votto to try and extend him. The best pitching option that is not a 1-2 year rental is James Shields, who is also possibly going to be the toughest to get. So your going to have to include Alonso plus another prospect or two because honestly the Rays have what we NEED and we have what the Rays WANT. Big difference. The whole point to keep Votto long term would be to build a consistent winner, which I HOPE everyone wants instead of a two year Hail Mary. If we give up our best prospect and some change I want a guarantee that pitcher is here long term, whether through his current contract or us giving him an extension, but I also want a guarantee that Votto stays. If we sign Votto to a $22-23M/yr contract (which he earned and deserves), how in the hell do you expect to give an extension to or maintain the contract to whoever we trade for? Our best SP prospect is in A ball. We have no solutions in house for our already troublesome rotation. So why, both economically and baseball-related is it a bad idea to trade Joey Votto. Because he is possibly one of the best hitters Cincinnati has ever seen? For that reason alone you could quite possibly (and successfully) fill every other hole on your roster (SP, SS/leadoff, RP, LF and depth) whether it be through the trade return or free agency with more payroll flexibility. And by trading Votto, you also keep other trading chips (Wood, Volquez, Sappelt, Heisey, Frazier hell even Grandal and Hanigan because we can now sign Ramon Hernandez) to use for other trades to add another SP or depth.

Lets say we go all in and we keep Alonso and Votto leaves, and we can't extend the pitcher we get in return from this offseason trades; well come 2015 in the middle of a steep rebuilding transition we will most possibly go through, we are going to possibly lose Alonso if he puts up 85-90% of the numbers Joey posts. If our farm system (which is full of young position guys is as good as we and obviously the baseball world seems to think it is then why not trade a Joey Votto to fully stock the whole system. He is easily worth 2 ML guys, 2-3 prospects (depending on the grade). To be honest, I think it's rather ignorant to think that Votto alone will guide us to where we want to be.

harmony
11-29-2011, 02:57 PM
From columnist Ken Rosenthal at FOX Sports:


Alonso, meanwhile, is viewed by rival GMs as a one-dimensional player, not someone who can be the centerpiece of a trade offer for a pitcher such as Athletics left-hander Gio Gonzalez or Rays righty James Shields.

“I don’t know if he has a position,” one rival GM says. “He’s terrible in the outfield. His best position is first base — and he’s not great at first, either.”

Adds another GM: “He has to be one of the top hitters in the game to have significant value. You’ll probably always be looking to move him to DH.”


http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/houston-astros-crane-can-hit-homer-with-gm-hire-112811

dMaus14
11-29-2011, 03:17 PM
That's good! Is Bob going to add about $15M of his own money to the payroll for the next 10 years to cover his extension? Because I don't think the other owners are on board.

brad1176
11-29-2011, 05:37 PM
It seems many on here would like to trade Votto. Ok, where do we trade him to? The Rays won't match up because of his salary. The teams that can afford him, the Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies all have established first baseman. The Rangers and Blue Jays don't have the TOR starter that we would want in return. Pujols and Fielder are on the FA market, that will take two more teams out. So where would we trade him to? Thoughts?

malcontent
11-29-2011, 06:02 PM
This team is short on LH hitters as it is.

And people want to pick up a RH LF like Willingham?

Keep Alonso in LF and his bat will more than make up for the sub-par defense.

LegallyMinded
11-29-2011, 08:27 PM
Alonso came up in the fangraphs prospect chat this afternoon. According to Mike Newman:

"Seems like [the Reds] aren't finding the kind of interest they originally felt would be there. I like Yonder, I just don't think he's elite. Corner men with bad bodies and good, but not elite bats just don't draw a ton of interest."

I'm starting to think the Reds should just hang on to Alonso. The starting rotation really needs an upgrade, but based on comments from people like Newman and Rosenthal, it's looking like Alonnso won't be a viable trade chip for such an upgrade.

dMaus14
11-29-2011, 08:30 PM
Well the reason why people want Willingham is because he is middle of the order bat to split up Votto and Bruce and even Alonso. Having 3 lefties in a row in the middle of your lineup isn't good managing.

dMaus14
11-29-2011, 08:44 PM
It seems many on here would like to trade Votto. Ok, where do we trade him to? The Rays won't match up because of his salary. The teams that can afford him, the Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies all have established first baseman. The Rangers and Blue Jays don't have the TOR starter that we would want in return. Pujols and Fielder are on the FA market, that will take two more teams out. So where would we trade him to? Thoughts?

Toronto does have the TOR guy WE need in Brandon Morrow. Plus they have a plethora of SP prospects throught their system unlike ours who are in the low minors. His last two year averages at worst would put him as our #3 with the chance to be our #1, especially coming from AL east. If I am giving up Votto I want atleast Morrow and Escobar, along with 1-2 pitching prospects.

Plus by trading Votto, it still leaves you with all of your other trade chips to get a Danks, Floyd, Shields or Garza such as Heisey, Sappelt, Frazier, Francisco, Volquez, Wood, Masset, hell even Grandal, Corcinco and Cozart. Not to mention the obvious financial flexibility to sign FA or extend current players.

We might (I think if you make that trade, plus one for Danks, and a few minor signings) not be far and beyond better in 2012 by doing that trade than if we kept Votto. But I can guarantee you that barring any season ending injury to our SP we will be better in 2013 without Votto by performing that trade than if we had him.

LegallyMinded
11-29-2011, 08:55 PM
It seems many on here would like to trade Votto. Ok, where do we trade him to? The Rays won't match up because of his salary. The teams that can afford him, the Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies all have established first baseman. The Rangers and Blue Jays don't have the TOR starter that we would want in return. Pujols and Fielder are on the FA market, that will take two more teams out. So where would we trade him to? Thoughts?

One possibility would be the Mariners, as outlined here (http://www.ussmariner.com/2011/11/02/daves-201-off-season-plan/). I'm not sure I'm a huge fan of the proposed deal, but Pineda and League would be definite assets to the pitching staff. The Mariners, meanwhile, are certainly in the market for a 1B and are looking to spend money, as evidenced by their pursuit of Prince Fielder, so Votto could be a likely target for them.

dMaus14
11-29-2011, 09:10 PM
You have to think that the comments from rival GMs about Alonso being one-dimensional isn't that they truly believe he is that way, but because Jocketty came out and adamently said Votto won't be traded this year, they are just going to make it that much harder to get what he wants from trying slip by with just Alonso. Whether he was tired of the trade rumors or not, I see no harm in them because the difference between Votto being available and not being available is maybe one additional prospect. He'd be getting a king's ransom either way, especially if a sign and trade is agreed upon.

The Rage
11-29-2011, 09:25 PM
Alonso lacks the raw power teams are looking for. I think teams see him as a good hitting, 20 homer guy. Not the Joey Votto 40hr potential.

So we are talking about reduced value. He probably could net middling pitching(which the Reds don't need), a closer(which they do) or a package for a good LF(which they also do).

Reds fans consistantly overrating these guys compared to what the rest of the teams think.

Alonso for Bailey makes sense as would Alonso,Grandel and parts for a stud LFer.

malcontent
11-29-2011, 09:47 PM
Well the reason why people want Willingham is because he is middle of the order bat to split up Votto and Bruce and even Alonso. Having 3 lefties in a row in the middle of your lineup isn't good managing.
Why do they need to be in a row?

Reds have probably had the fewest LH hitters in the majors the last few years.

dMaus14
11-29-2011, 10:39 PM
They don't need 3 but giving their hitting abilities and the would be middle of the lineup hitters. Out of the current roster what RH would be suited to hit 3-5? Rolen, Phillips or Heisey? Phillips did a fantastic job leading off last year and I don't know if I would move him unless get a for sure leadoff guy. To me, Heisey is only good in a platoon role but I hope I am wrong. He is still not a 3-5 guy. Rolen in his prime years was suited for those spots but whether he can play without a body cast we will see. Stubbs is either 1-2, 6-8. Cozart same thing. Frazier is a 6-8 guy. Sappelt is a 1-2, 7-8. Mesoraco could be that guy but isn't good enough to behind the plate in his rookie campaign to play 70%. Hanigan performed well 7-8. Finally Miguel Cairo .... haha! So yes, it would either be bat Votto-Bruce-Alonso in a row or find a RH bat to break them up. I don't think having as many RH as we have is a problem because of the ability of our LH hitters, but we do need a 4-5 type RH.

texasdave
11-29-2011, 10:55 PM
Well the reason why people want Willingham is because he is middle of the order bat to split up Votto and Bruce and even Alonso. Having 3 lefties in a row in the middle of your lineup isn't good managing.

Votto is a career .900 OPS hitter against LHP. Break Bruce and Alonso up by putting Votto in the middle of them. That is not a problem. The first four should be Phillips, Bruce, Votto, Alonso. Or flip-flop Bruce and Alonso. I don't have any idea why in all these proposed lineups people want to put a crappy/unproven hitter in the two spot. That is Dusty Baker thinking. Move the three lefties up and get them more at-bats since they are quite probably your best three hitters.

dMaus14
11-29-2011, 11:36 PM
I don't know who the crappy/unproven hitter in the two hole would be but isn't that similar to putting an unproven hitter in the 4 hole with Alonso. But I think by putting Bruce in the two hole it will harm Votto's numbers because of Bruce's ability to drive runs in. But I still think its not a good idea to have three LH in a row.

brad1176
11-30-2011, 08:24 AM
Toronto does have the TOR guy WE need in Brandon Morrow.

Brandon Morrow is a TOR starter? 11-11 with a 4.72 ERA and 179 IP is a TOR starter to you? I'm not giving up one of the top hitters in the game for that guy.

brad1176
11-30-2011, 08:41 AM
One possibility would be the Mariners, as outlined here (http://www.ussmariner.com/2011/11/02/daves-201-off-season-plan/). I'm not sure I'm a huge fan of the proposed deal, but Pineda and League would be definite assets to the pitching staff. The Mariners, meanwhile, are certainly in the market for a 1B and are looking to spend money, as evidenced by their pursuit of Prince Fielder, so Votto could be a likely target for them.

Now this one would make the most sense to me. I think though that they would rather get Prince, he wouldn't cost them their top pitching like Votto would. Plus, Votto is only under team control through 2013.

brad1176
11-30-2011, 08:46 AM
In reference to the Willingham possibilities, don't we already have a Willingham type player in Heisey? IF we trade Alonso, I would think Heisey would be our regular left fielder, he's young, cheap, and there's not much of an upgrade out there in our price range.

LegallyMinded
11-30-2011, 10:14 AM
In reference to the Willingham possibilities, don't we already have a Willingham type player in Heisey? IF we trade Alonso, I would think Heisey would be our regular left fielder, he's young, cheap, and there's not much of an upgrade out there in our price range.

Here are the respective slash lines for Heisey and Willingham last year:

Heisey: .254/.309/ .487
Willingham: .246/.332/ .477

They also both struggled to walk much and struck out quite frequently. So yes, we do already have a Willingham type in the form of Chris Heisey. Except, of course, that Heisey is 5 years younger and correspondingly cheaper.

dMaus14
11-30-2011, 12:03 PM
Brandon Morrow is a TOR starter? 11-11 with a 4.72 ERA and 179 IP is a TOR starter to you? I'm not giving up one of the top hitters in the game for that guy.

Actually yes he is compared to our rotation. He had a 4.72 ERA, with 10+ k/9, threw 179 IP, and won 11 games in the AL East. Oh and had 3.4 WAR. We had one guy win more than 11 games in 2011. We had one guy throw more innings than him. We only had 3 SP with better ERA than him. We didn't have a SP who had a better k/9 (Chapman had a 12.4) and our "ACE" who only managed 156 IP because he was hurt at the beginning and towards the end only had a WAR of 2.8. His numbers will get better by moving to the NL, especially not facing the Yankees, Red Sox, Rangers. And it's not like I traded Votto for only Morrow, I traded for now and the future.

Not to mention, if you had Danks with a Sappelt, Corcinco, Wood + someone else trade. You have the best rotation in the central. 4 SP who are both young and proven ateleast over that past 2-3 years in Cueto, Danks, Morrow, Leake

texasdave
11-30-2011, 12:31 PM
Here are the respective slash lines for Heisey and Willingham last year:

Heisey: .254/.309/ .487
Willingham: .246/.332/ .477

They also both struggled to walk much and struck out quite frequently. So yes, we do already have a Willingham type in the form of Chris Heisey. Except, of course, that Heisey is 5 years younger and correspondingly cheaper.

And a better fielder and a better baserunner and a better all-around ballplayer.

dMaus14
11-30-2011, 12:52 PM
I agree that Heisey can man LF even thought I see him better in a platoon role. I don't think we should sign Willingham either but that's the most popular FA bat I have heard that we CAN afford. But, let me play devil's advocate and defend Willingham a little.

Willingham hit .246 with an OPS of .809, 29 HR, 69 R, and 98 RBI
Heisey hit .254 with an OPS of .796, 18 HR, 44 R, and 50 RBI

Willingham hit in one of the most pitcher's friendly parks in all of baseball, while Heisey hit in one of the most hitter's friendly parks in all of baseball. Plus, Willingham's splits had his power numbers up at home compared to on the road. The opposite of the Coors Field effect with a difference in type of parks. It's actually pretty impressive when you look at the stats.

Bill James projects Willingham to have: .248/.352/.460 with 25 HR, 72 R and 82 RBIs (most likely off of the Coliseum)
Bill James projects Heisey to have: .267/.328/.485 with 14 HR, 41 R, and 40 RBIs

Heisey also is only projected to have 1/2 the PA that Willingham will get! So it is tough to say which would be better other than one is younger and cheaper but also hasn't been given a full season of PA given to him to produce!

brad1176
11-30-2011, 01:22 PM
Actually yes he is compared to our rotation. He had a 4.72 ERA, with 10+ k/9, threw 179 IP, and won 11 games in the AL East. Oh and had 3.4 WAR. We had one guy win more than 11 games in 2011. We had one guy throw more innings than him. We only had 3 SP with better ERA than him. We didn't have a SP who had a better k/9 (Chapman had a 12.4) and our "ACE" who only managed 156 IP because he was hurt at the beginning and towards the end only had a WAR of 2.8. His numbers will get better by moving to the NL, especially not facing the Yankees, Red Sox, Rangers. And it's not like I traded Votto for only Morrow, I traded for now and the future.

Not to mention, if you had Danks with a Sappelt, Corcinco, Wood + someone else trade. You have the best rotation in the central. 4 SP who are both young and proven ateleast over that past 2-3 years in Cueto, Danks, Morrow, Leake

Morrow is not a TOR starter. You're comparing him to our staff, which you can't do. A TOR is compared against C.C., Halladay, Lee, Kershaw, etc. not Arryo, Bailey, Volquez, Leake, and Cueto.
Now to your point about him moving to the NL will boost his numbers, the same argument was made last year when the Brewers traded for Marcum and his stats ended up being virtually identical.

dMaus14
11-30-2011, 02:08 PM
Marcum is also not a power guy! A power guy like Morrow has the ability to mow down the back end of a lineup unlike Marcum who is 88-91, with 3 pitches. He is a top of the rotation guy for a team like the Reds. I can compare him to our rotation because he will immediately make the staff better. I don't need to compare him to CC, Halladay, Lee, Kershaw, Lincecum, Cain, Beckett, Lester, Felix, Verlander because their salaries are all out of the Reds price range.

Hell in 2010 when our pitchers actually performed he ranked: based on 2010 numbers

GS - 3rd
IP - 3rd
W - 3rd
k/9 - 1st
ERA - 4th (by .03)
WAR - 1st

And even IF you don't think he is a #1, you don't need an ace like Lincecum, CC, or Halladay to make the playoffs. We have the offense, all we need is a Cueto, Danks, Morrow and Leake type rotation and you will get to the playoffs, especially with our offense and defense. That type of rotation is affordable for us and produces.

FireDusty
11-30-2011, 02:27 PM
All these what ifs boil down to this:
- Alonzo will bring you nothing more than what you already have...which means you would just be giving him away.
- Willingham will add nothing more than you already have....which means you be adding a guy that would be getting in the way.

The only player(s) we have that would bring something of true value in a trade are Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips & Cueto. So, unless you want to give up something of real value to get something of real value.....all this speculation is nothing more than mental masturbation.

dMaus14
12-03-2011, 02:00 AM
I just did some research and did you know according to Fangraphs, Johnny Cueto, who was the Reds best pitcher last year according to WAR rankings was #49 in the entire MLB. And the the 2nd highest Red was Mike Leake at #93. That means each team avg 1.68 pitchers better than the Reds "ace" in 2011 and avg 3.01 pitchers better than their #2. I know our rotation was bad but that's pretty remarkable!

texasdave
12-03-2011, 10:32 AM
Cleveland Indians in on Alonso?

http://wahoosonfirst.com/2011/12/01/could-indians-trade-josh-tomlin-for-yonder-alonso/

izzy's dad
12-03-2011, 10:51 AM
Cleveland Indians in on Alonso?

http://wahoosonfirst.com/2011/12/01/could-indians-trade-josh-tomlin-for-yonder-alonso/

Not interested in Tomlin.

LegallyMinded
12-03-2011, 12:24 PM
Not interested in Tomlin.

Agreed. His numbers make him look like a lateral move at best. I think if Cleveland really wants to offer an appealing trade, it would have to involve Masterson, but I doubt they would give him up.

harmony
12-03-2011, 07:32 PM
Not interested in Tomlin.
At least Josh Tomlin is a ground- ball pitcher with good control:

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9388&position=P

... and remains under his team's control through the 2016 season.

LegallyMinded
12-03-2011, 10:01 PM
At least Josh Tomlin is a ground- ball pitcher with good control:

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9388&position=P

... and remains under his team's control through the 2016 season.

The good control is nice, but is he really a ground ball pitcher? A GB rate of 38.2% for last year puts him behind every Reds starter except Travis Wood. In fact, his GB:FB ratio seems to be most similar to Bronson Arroyo's, which does not bode well for how Tomlin would fare in GABP.