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cinreds21
11-25-2011, 02:16 AM
Here we go:


The Reds are offering Yonder Alonso as trade bait in their search for a closer or a No. 2 starter, reports Yahoo Sports' Tim Brown. Reds GM Walt Jocketty has spoken to several teams --- including the A's, Blue Jays, Indians and Rays --- about Alonso, though we heard earlier this week that the Reds thought Alonso was too much to give up for Oakland closer Andrew Bailey.

Alonso is regarded as Cincinnati's top hitting prospect, if one without a Major League position since Joey Votto is cemented at first base. The 24-year-old has an OPS of .837 in four minor league seasons and hit .330/.398/.545 in 98 plate appearances with the Reds last year.

If the Reds were willing to move him, you would think Alonso would be too much to deal for any closer, not just Bailey. Jocketty has said his club's top priority is finding a starting pitcher this offseason, so while the Jays and Indians have some good young arms, they wouldn't be willing to deal a top-of-the-rotation caliber of starter for which the Reds are looking. The Jays and Tribe also have other options at first base, though Adam Lind, Edwin Encarnacion and Matt LaPorta wouldn't be major obstacles if Toronto or Cleveland had a legitimate shot at Alonso. The A's and Reds might not be a match on Bailey, but Jocketty might deem possibly-available pitchers like Gio Gonzalez or Trevor Cahill worthy of moving Alonso.

The most logical match would appear to be Tampa Bay, who has a big hole at first base, lots of pitching and a need for a controllable young talent like Alonso. The Rays could offer Wade Davis or Jeff Niemann, though the Reds are more likely looking for a pitcher like James Shields. (Obviously David Price and Jeremy Hellickson are staying put.)


I have been saying that for two years...



Deal Yonder, Grandal and a third piece (Francisco?) for Shields and one of Farnsworth/McGee/Howell.

Phhhl
11-25-2011, 02:29 AM
The Reds should settle for nothing less than a pitcher equivalent to Shields for Alonso. And, Walt should be more than willing to enter 2012 with Alonso as the starting left fielder unless a team is willing to meet the Reds' needs. There is not a closer with a last name other than "Feliz" that we should even consider trading an offensive goliath like Yonder Alonso for, even on a bad day.

There is still more than enough talent in this organization to win the division in 2012 without doing anything desperate.

cinreds21
11-25-2011, 02:33 AM
I agree. I would be OK if they did a package for Bailey and Gio. It'd be a big package though and may be too much.

cinreds21
11-25-2011, 02:34 AM
And another thing, I don't see how another starter is going to fit if Chapman goes into the rotation. Even if they get rid of Volquez and trade/option Wood, they still have five starters. Maybe Aroldis is hurt and they just haven't disclosed it.

Phhhl
11-25-2011, 02:49 AM
And another thing, I don't see how another starter is going to fit if Chapman goes into the rotation. Even if they get rid of Volquez and trade/option Wood, they still have five starters. Maybe Aroldis is hurt and they just haven't disclosed it.

Well, they did shut him down in the AFL... disturbing news if he is going to be a starter no matter how you slice it.

cinreds21
11-25-2011, 03:00 AM
Well, they did shut him down in the AFL... disturbing news if he is going to be a starter no matter how you slice it.

Exactly. I wonder if it's worse than they've let on. Probably so.

fearofpopvol1
11-25-2011, 05:24 AM
I'm quite concerned if the claim is true of trying to trade Alonso for a closer. I'm hoping that's a a misstatement. I have no issue dealing Alonso, but let's at least get similar value. Shields is a good target. Under control for 3 more years to reasonable money. But it would probably take 1 more prospect. Who though?

mth123
11-25-2011, 06:21 AM
Cahill was much worse on the road than at comfy Oakland and his second half was horrible. I'm wondering if there is something wrong with him. Gio walks the ballpark and looks a lot like Volquez from here. He did OK on the road, so maybe GABP wouldn't be horrible for him, but I'm not sure he's the guy I'd be after either. With Anderson and Braden hurt, I don't think I'd pull the trigger with the A's unless its for a lesser player. I might be willing to do something like Stubbs straight up for Cahill or Gonzalez, but I'm sure they'd be looking for more. I'd add in Volquez and that's about it and even at that, I'd probably want another role player back.

In Toronto, Ricky Romero would be great, but I'd guess they want Votto and not Alonso. Brandon Morrow has had xFIP numbers in the 3.50 Range the last 2 years even though his ERA has been over a run higher. A deal involving Alonso for Morrow would be great, but I'm sure the Reds would need to add more. The Jays are looking to add an arm. I'm not sure I get why they would be willing to deal a starter who is better than a question mark for offense. But if a deal involving say Alonso, Volquez and stuff for Morrow could be made, it would be a good move for the Reds.

In Cleveland, Alonso for Justin Masterson would be a pretty good deal, but again, I'm not sure why the Indians would do that. Maybe if they got Wood or Volquez too.

Like most of the board, IMO, the deal that makes the most sense is with TB for James Shields. He's the kind of arm the rotation needs and would be worthy of an Alonso, Grandal and stuff package. I'm guessing the Rays are offering Jeff Niemann for Alonso straight up. Niemann had a decent year, but finished with back problems that limited him to 135 IP and was left off the play-off roster. Too questionable for me. The other guy they may offer is Wade Davis and he's no better than a number 4 who can give innings. The Reds need to aim higher.

GAC
11-25-2011, 06:51 AM
The Reds should settle for nothing less than a pitcher equivalent to Shields for Alonso.

As mush as I like Alonso, and think he has a bright future, he still hasn't proven anything yet, other then high expectations. Shields on the other hand....

http://www.draysbay.com/2011/7/22/2275514/rays-trade-values-1-james-shields

Teams are going to be going after Shields in the off-season. And the Reds are going to have to make a very lucrative offer (package deal) to possibly get him IMO.

corkedbat
11-25-2011, 07:01 AM
- How about

(With TB)

Yonder Alonso
Yasmani Grandal,
Drew Stubbs
Edinson Volquez
Nick Massett

for

James Shields
BJ Upton
Wade Davis
Jake McGee

(With BOS)

Bronson Arroyo
Carlos Fisher

for

Kevin Youkilis

(With CLE)

Travis Wood

for

Chin Soo Choo

(With OAK)

Homer Bailey
Yorman Rodriguez
Kyle Lotzkar (or)JC Sulbaran

For

Andrew Bailey
Trevor Cahill

1B Votto/Youkilis
2B Phillips/Janish
SS Cozart/(Janish)
3B Rolen/Francisco
LF Choo/Heisey
CF Upton/Sappelt
RF Bruce/(Heisey)
CA Mesaraco/Hannigan

Shields
Cueto
Chapman
Leake
Cahill/Davis
Lecure
Ondruzek/Arredondo
Bray
Boxberger
McGee
Bailey


OK...not likely, but I couldn't sleep and I was bored.

jojo
11-25-2011, 07:19 AM
Choo for Woods would be a chinsationally sooper deal.

Krusty
11-25-2011, 09:47 AM
I agree. I would be OK if they did a package for Bailey and Gio. It'd be a big package though and may be too much.

That could happen if the Reds send a pitching prospect in return.

dougdirt
11-25-2011, 09:47 AM
My biggest thing I took from this..... On what planet is a #2 starter of similar value to a closer?

I don't have a huge issue with trading Alonso, as I don't see him as an untouchable by simple nature that he is a first baseman, but I wouldn't trade him for a closer, at least not straight up. Even someone like David Robertson, I would want more (I know that trade wouldn't work because the Yankees don't need Alonso, just throwing out a dominant reliever name here).

Reds1
11-25-2011, 10:27 AM
And another thing, I don't see how another starter is going to fit if Chapman goes into the rotation. Even if they get rid of Volquez and trade/option Wood, they still have five starters. Maybe Aroldis is hurt and they just haven't disclosed it.

I think many folks here would consider it to be a big surprise for Chapman to be in the starting rotation. Even if he does and very successful he will have to be shut down at the AS break if they follow there innings rule. I can see Chapman in the pen next year unless something drastic happens, but as the team is now we have 7 or so starters that are ready to go a full year if healthy. It's going to be interesting.

jojo
11-25-2011, 10:38 AM
If Alonso for Cahill or Gio sounds like a great idea, I'm not sure why surplus for Fister wasnt an incredibly awesome idea at last year's trade deadline.

dunner13
11-25-2011, 10:43 AM
Im trying to think of other SP's that might be available - Alonso for Danks?

dougdirt
11-25-2011, 10:49 AM
If Alonso for Cahill or Gio sounds like a great idea,

Those don't even sound like good ideas.

Vottomatic
11-25-2011, 11:19 AM
I'm glad they're shopping him. He has no place to play with Votto at 1B. And don't say LF..........he was worse than Gomes out there.

It's just a question of how valuable other teams think Alonso is. By some of the comments on this thread, Reds fans might be overvaluing their players and prospects again.

dougdirt
11-25-2011, 11:21 AM
I'm glad they're shopping him. He has no place to play with Votto at 1B. And don't say LF..........he was worse than Gomes out there.


Even if he is worse than Gomes out there, that doesn't mean he isn't more valuable than Gomes out there because the guy can hit.

Scrap Irony
11-25-2011, 11:56 AM
Even if he is worse than Gomes out there, that doesn't mean he isn't more valuable than Gomes out there because the guy can hit.

He's better-- because of that glove, he has a pretty big hole to climb out of. He'll likely have to OPS 800-820 to be within shouting distance of a 0.0 WAR. Heisey, OTOH, (or Sappelt, for that matter) could OPS 770 and still have more value to the team because of their gloves.

Vottomatic
11-25-2011, 12:20 PM
Here we go:




I have been saying that for two years...



Deal Yonder, Grandal and a third piece (Francisco?) for Shields and one of Farnsworth/McGee/Howell.

Alonso, Grandal, Volquez, Masset, Neftali Soto for Shields, Peralta, McGee.

With Votto at 1B and Alonso not suited for LF, Reds have no place for him. With Hanigan cheap the next few years, suited for platooning, and Mesoraco the heir apparent, Grandal is quality trade bait.
Volquez is in the doghouse but still has quality stuff to eventually put it together. Tampa needs a starting pitcher in return for Shields.
Masset helps replace some of their bullpen and is in the doghouse with Reds fans.
Soto is the overpayment to get the deal done and probably has no room even eventually on the major league roster.

Shields gives the Reds that ace at a reasonable cost.
Peralta and McGee strengthen the bullpen, hopefully.

traderumor
11-25-2011, 01:10 PM
Alonso, Grandal, Volquez, Masset, Neftali Soto for Shields, Peralta, McGee.

With Votto at 1B and Alonso not suited for LF, Reds have no place for him. With Hanigan cheap the next few years, suited for platooning, and Mesoraco the heir apparent, Grandal is quality trade bait.
Volquez is in the doghouse but still has quality stuff to eventually put it together. Tampa needs a starting pitcher in return for Shields.
Masset helps replace some of their bullpen and is in the doghouse with Reds fans.
Soto is the overpayment to get the deal done and probably has no room even eventually on the major league roster.

Shields gives the Reds that ace at a reasonable cost.
Peralta and McGee strengthen the bullpen, hopefully.

Volquez and Masset are not "in the doghouse" with Reds fans. They are properly identified as performing below the level needed for the Reds to win and are projected as providing more of the same in 2012. Better performance is needed from their slots, and I would like to see the Reds do something other than do nothing and hope for career seasons from previous under performers. Let someone else wait for their "potential" and "stuff" to translate into performance.

AmarilloRed
11-25-2011, 02:21 PM
So if we trade Alonso and Votto enters FA after 2013, who plays first in 2014? I'll wait and see what sort of pitcher putting him on the trade block gets us.

dougdirt
11-25-2011, 02:31 PM
So if we trade Alonso and Votto enters FA after 2013, who plays first in 2014? I'll wait and see what sort of pitcher putting him on the trade block gets us.

First option would probably be Neftali Soto. He has some progress he still needs to make when it comes to his plate discipline though. But there would be free agency as well and a bunch of money coming off of the books with Votto leaving.

redsfandan
11-25-2011, 02:37 PM
Tampa needs a starting pitcher in return for Shields.
Wrong, they might have interest in a Volquez or Chapman but they have starting pitching depth too. Theirs is just better than the Reds. So, to say that they NEED a starting pitcher in return isn't necessarily true.

steig
11-25-2011, 09:25 PM
So if we trade Alonso and Votto enters FA after 2013, who plays first in 2014? I'll wait and see what sort of pitcher putting him on the trade block gets us.

I think it is better to ask who will provide offense for the Reds in 2014 if we trade away Alonso.

I don't think this is a smart move by the Reds to shop Alonso without having Votto signed to a LTD. I am not in favor of trading Alonso because I do not think the Reds can be competitive year in and year out if they sign Votto to a large FA deal after 2013.

Reds1
11-25-2011, 09:41 PM
Oh wouldn't it be nice Votto and Alonso in the same line up though.

Kc61
11-26-2011, 12:28 AM
The Reds need a good starting pitcher and a good hitting left fielder. These are the two biggest holes on the club and they must be filled.

I have no trouble trading Alonso to fill one of these holes. He is probably the team's best trading chip, so he should bring back the best return.

I'm not losing sleep over 2014. There is ample time to find a first baseman if Votto leaves. I'm more worried about 2012 and 2013. Winning while Votto is still a Red.

Of course, one alternative is to keep Yonder as the left fielder. But just because he may be able to fill LF doesn't make him untouchable. The Reds can't be afraid to move valuable guys if they get a major return.

There are always downsides to trades. You can't be paralyzed into inaction because you have to give up value. Alonso is a good hitting prospect, but he can't be untouchable.

Kc61
11-26-2011, 12:38 AM
Volquez and Masset are not "in the doghouse" with Reds fans. They are properly identified as performing below the level needed for the Reds to win and are projected as providing more of the same in 2012. Better performance is needed from their slots, and I would like to see the Reds do something other than do nothing and hope for career seasons from previous under performers. Let someone else wait for their "potential" and "stuff" to translate into performance.

True, but you can't always give up on players after a bad year. The front office has to make an evaluation player by player.

In the case of Masset, he has very good stuff, but he has failed to achieve consistency for two years now. At one point, he was a potential closer; now, I can't see relying on him beyond middle relief.

I feel differently about Volquez. He still has that ground ball/strike out ability which is a rare combo. He has been recovering from TJ surgery. I think there is reason to believe he could come back strong next year, although it's certainly not a given.

I wouldn't count on either pitcher, but I'd be more inclined to find a role for Volquez and see how he does.

In Masset's case, if I were GM, he wouldn't be closer or set up man. I'd put him in the middle innings or trade him.

_Sir_Charles_
11-26-2011, 10:40 AM
Some of the trade ideas in that Shields article are hilarious. Shields for Mesoraco, Alonso, Francisco and Frazier. And by the way, THAT deal....still had the guy on the fence. :O) MAYBE if we toss in a high-end arm. *grin*

Vottomatic
11-26-2011, 11:00 AM
Even today, mlbtraderumors is still posting another statement that the Rays are strongly looking for a first baseman.

I really think the Reds and Rays are perfect trading partners if the Rays decide to part with Shields for Alonso and others.

MikeS21
11-26-2011, 12:54 PM
Some of the trade ideas in that Shields article are hilarious. Shields for Mesoraco, Alonso, Francisco and Frazier. And by the way, THAT deal....still had the guy on the fence. :O) MAYBE if we toss in a high-end arm. *grin*
You may laugh, but I think those are exactly the kind of trade demands that Jocketty is dealing with, and opposing GM's are not backing off their demands. This is precisely why Jocketty has does nothing.

I am very much inclined to trade prospects, but I am opposed to just giving them away.

Will M
11-26-2011, 01:42 PM
You may laugh, but I think those are exactly the kind of trade demands that Jocketty is dealing with, and opposing GM's are not backing off their demands. This is precisely why Jocketty has does nothing.

I am very much inclined to trade prospects, but I am opposed to just giving them away.

if thats what Shields would net then the Reds should trade Votto and keep Alonso. it works both ways. if stars net half the other teams farm then deal them. seems to work for the Rays.

Caveat Emperor
11-26-2011, 02:52 PM
First option would probably be Neftali Soto. He has some progress he still needs to make when it comes to his plate discipline though. But there would be free agency as well and a bunch of money coming off of the books with Votto leaving.

A guy who needs to learn plate discipline is no prospect as far as I'm concerned.

corkedbat
11-26-2011, 03:23 PM
if thats what Shields would net then the Reds should trade Votto and keep Alonso. it works both ways. if stars net half the other teams farm then deal them. seems to work for the Rays.

How about Votto for Shields, Matt Joyce and Jake McGee?

Benihana
11-26-2011, 03:53 PM
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/11/25/fake-trade-james-shields-to-cincinnati-for-yonder-alonso/


Fake trade: James Shields to Cincinnati for Yonder*Alonso
Matthew Pouliot Nov 25, 2011, 11:00 PM EST
17 Comments

Getty Images
(The following is not a done deal or even a valid rumor and should not be treated as such.)

Reds acquire RHP James Shields and RHP*Kyle Farnsworth*from the Rays for first baseman Yonder Alonso and catcher Yasmani Grandal.

Courtesy of Yahoo’s Tim Brown comes the rumor that the Reds have started shopping top prospect Yonder Alonso in their hunt for a closer or a No. 2 starter. He lists Tampa Bay as one of the teams that GM Walt Jocketty has talked to.

The Rays have six major league starters. Neither Wade Davis nor Jeff Niemann is worth Alonso alone, while Matt Moore, David Price, Jeremy Hellickson and Shields all appear to be too valuable to trade straight up for Alonso. That’s where Grandal comes in. The 2010 first-round pick is one of the game’s top five catching prospects, but he has an even better young catcher ahead of him in Devin Mesoraco. The Reds still aren’t going to be in any hurry to give him up, but it would make some sense to part with both of their blocked youngsters for a big-time starter like Shields.

Why it works for the Rays: Moore could very well turn into one of the AL’s best starters next year, giving Tampa Bay one of the game’s top rotations even without Shields in the fold. Alonso immediately steps into the vacancy at first base left by Casey Kotchman‘s departure. He probably won’t turn into an All-Star at such a loaded position, but he shouldn’t be too far off with his strong bat. Grandal isn’t quite ready yet, but he’ll likely be ready to overtake John Jaso in 2013.

I have the Rays giving up Farnsworth, too.*While he was an excellent closer*last season, it’s hardly a given that he’ll keep it up and the Rays should be able to replace him easily in a deep relief market.

Why it works for the Reds: It’s painful giving up 12 years of Alonso and Grandal for three of Shields and one of Farnsworth, but they don’t have a lot of use for either youngster right now and it’d be quite a blow to trade one of the game’s best players in Votto to make room for Alonso. The trade certainly has the potential to make the Reds a whole lot better if Shields and Farnsworth come close to duplicating their 2011 success. Also, the money isn’t bad at all. The Reds would get their ace and their closer for a combined $10.8 million in 2012, which should still leave them with some financial flexibility going forward. Shields’ contract is also reasonable beyond that: there are team options worth $9 million-$10 million for 2013 and $12 million-$14 million in 2014.

Why it won’t happen: One factor the Reds would have to be awfully nervous about: while Shields and Farnsworth combined for a 2.70 ERA in 307 innings last season, they came in at 4.74 in 268 innings during 2010. The Reds might want to hold out for Shields for Alonso straight up.


I wish.

cinreds21
11-26-2011, 03:58 PM
I don't think Yonder and Grandal would be enough for Shields and Farnsworth. I would definitely do that though.

Mario-Rijo
11-26-2011, 04:02 PM
I don't think Yonder and Grandal would be enough for Shields and Farnsworth. I would definitely do that though.

Are they suggesting Farnsworth as a closer? Otherwise why take on his money? And if they are who is comfortable with him as a closer, not I. I say Alonso and Grandal for Shields and a little cash and if need be we can toss in a 3rd player for depth like I don't know Valaika he seems like a D-Ray type, or maybe Carlos Fisher if they want an arm.

osuceltic
11-26-2011, 04:21 PM
Some of the trade ideas in that Shields article are hilarious. Shields for Mesoraco, Alonso, Francisco and Frazier. And by the way, THAT deal....still had the guy on the fence. :O) MAYBE if we toss in a high-end arm. *grin*

Francisco is a big question mark, Frazier is a utility guy. So you're trading two legitimate starting prospects (and that's all they are) for a No. 1 starter. That's not as ludicrous as you think.

_Sir_Charles_
11-26-2011, 04:40 PM
Francisco is a big question mark, Frazier is a utility guy. So you're trading two legitimate starting prospects (and that's all they are) for a No. 1 starter. That's not as ludicrous as you think.

Francisco is a big question mark only in the fact that he walks little. His power is VERY legit. In the AL...he fits the DH mold pretty darn well too. His defense at third is not bad at all. I'd consider him above average at third. His cannon for an arm pushes him into the "above" category in my book.

Frazier gets short-changed around here quite a bit. He's considered a utility guy only because he was moved around so much in the minors. And he wasn't moved around for HIS benefit. It was because there was so little flexibility in some of the players around him. He is a legit 3rd sacker. He's athletic enough (and versatile enough) to play other positions witch allowed them to stick Yonder and Francisco where they did.

And 2 top notch prospects in Yonder & Mesoraco is indeed too much for Shields...who is NOT a No. 1 starter. He's coming off a career year folks. Look at his career numbers. He's incredibly hyped right now. Don't get me wrong, I'd like to see them pick him up...but overpaying for him doesn't thrill me.

lollipopcurve
11-26-2011, 04:41 PM
It would be stupid to trade both Alonso and Grandal. You have to keep one of them in case Votto leaves in 2014 (or the team decides they can't afford his 17 million in 2013). Grandal or Mesoraco could slide to 1st if both Votto and Alonso are gone.

IMO, the team should still be considering what teams would give up for Votto. Compare it to what teams will give up for Alonso, and go with the best deal.

_Sir_Charles_
11-26-2011, 04:48 PM
It would be stupid to trade both Alonso and Grandal. You have to keep one of them in case Votto leaves in 2014 (or the team decides they can't afford his 17 million in 2013). Grandal or Mesoraco could slide to 1st if both Votto and Alonso are gone.

IMO, the team should still be considering what teams would give up for Votto. Compare it to what teams will give up for Alonso, and go with the best deal.

Why? We have other viable options for first besides Alonso. Soto comes to mind. Several others as well. I don't see the deal listed here happening, but I'd have no problem letting either of those guys go for the right return. They've both blocked and will be for quite a while.

lollipopcurve
11-26-2011, 05:32 PM
Why? We have other viable options for first besides Alonso. Soto comes to mind. Several others as well. I don't see the deal listed here happening, but I'd have no problem letting either of those guys go for the right return. They've both blocked and will be for quite a while.

I think this is highly misguided.

Votto very well may be entering his final year as a Red. His salary doubles -- to 17 million -- in 2013. Jocketty has stated publicly that he'll try to extend him "within the next year." It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that if the team is unable to extend Votto by a year from now that the team will be reassessing its options, with the likelihood of a trade increasing significantly.

Soto was not a top 20 prospect in the Southern League, per Baseball America. He is highly overrated on this board. The only other player who could end up over there would be Francisco -- I don't see Frazier as a viable candidate -- but then you spring a hole at 3B.

IMO, folks are gravitating toward an "all in" approach in 2012, in classic shortsighted fashion.

MikeS21
11-26-2011, 05:49 PM
Let me kick out another idea. Trade Alonso for pitching. Since Mesoraco is ahead of him in the depth chart at catcher, would you consider looking at Grandal at 1B?

I think if the Reds cannot during 2012 season ink Votto to commit beyong 2013, then Grandal may be your best hitter in the minors and you trade Votto before the 2013 season and let Grandal play 1B.

lollipopcurve
11-26-2011, 06:28 PM
Let me kick out another idea. Trade Alonso for pitching. Since Mesoraco is ahead of him in the depth chart at catcher, would you consider looking at Grandal at 1B?

I think if the Reds cannot during 2012 season ink Votto to commit beyong 2013, then Grandal may be your best hitter in the minors and you trade Votto before the 2013 season and let Grandal play 1B.

Yes -- that's what I'm suggesting. If you're going to trade Alonso and open up the possibility that 1B becomes a hole after next year -- or by 2014 for sure -- it would be smart to hold onto Grandal. Either he or Mes could move to 1st if both Alonso and Votto are gone.

IslandRed
11-26-2011, 06:45 PM
I think Grandal will be a nice hitter... for a catcher. Measured against the first-base peer group, I don't think he'd be considered any kind of premium prospect. Even at first base, premium hitters don't grow on trees; just-okay hitters who can play first base do.

His real value is as a catcher, or a trading chip to a team looking for a catcher.

mth123
11-26-2011, 06:51 PM
I think the Reds will keep Votto until the end of his deal unless the Reds are out of it in July of 2013, then they may deal him. Phillips and Rolen come off the books after 2012 and the Reds will have plenty of room for Votto's increase. He's the kind of a guy that they would offer arb to under the new rule. If Votto comes off the books the team will have plenty of money to get a 1B who provides 1B production after the 2013 season is over and two draft picks for the trouble. Assuming that any of the kids (Alonso, Mesoraco or Grandal) will provide more than what they can buy on the market is also shortsighted. I also think that moving a viable major league catcher with a plus bat to 1B is really undercutting his value. If Grandal, for example, was dealt for a 1B with the same value, the offensive potential of the 1B acquired would likely be much greater since a huge portion of Grandal's value comes from his position.

My problem isn't so much what to do when Votto leaves. IMO, if the Reds deal Alonso this year, they will need to find a replacement right now. This team needs Votto, Bruce and Alonso manning the middle of the order in 2012. There are no other internal candidates who can do that job. I've moved away from wanting to deal Alonso. My preference is to keep him in LF while trying to resign Votto. If Votto can't be signed, then Alonso is still on board, but the Reds will still need to get a middle of the order bat to replace Votto unless Mesoraco moves into that level. Taking Alonso off the table probably means Shields is not obtainable, but the Reds still have some desirable pieces to deal and can still upgrade the rotation. Grandal would be in play if the Reds could get a number 2 with him as the centerpiece. If not, I'd fall back to an established number three like Wandy Rodriguez. Stubbs, Volquez and Janish might be fairly enticing to Houston (though if the Yankees decide to put up say Noesi, Betances and Nunez, the Astros probably go that route). In the quest for pitching, I'd also make Billy Hamilton, Nick Masset, Didi Gregorious, Denis Phipps and Neftali Soto among others available. The Reds can deal a nice combo of young major leaguers and kids and still have plenty of stuff left for the future. They need an arm who can provide 32 starts with 200+ quality innings immediately. Failure to land one is punting 2012. I guess if we have to pick which season to be also rans, I'd rather contend now and worry about what happens when Votto leaves after it happens.

mth123
11-26-2011, 06:52 PM
I think Grandal will be a nice hitter... for a catcher. Measured against the first-base peer group, I don't think he'd be considered any kind of premium prospect. Even at first base, premium hitters don't grow on trees; just-okay hitters who can play first base do.

His real value is as a catcher, or a trading chip to a team looking for a catcher.

Yep.

lollipopcurve
11-26-2011, 07:41 PM
If Votto comes off the books the team will have plenty of money to get a 1B who provides 1B production after the 2013 season is over and two draft picks for the trouble. Assuming that any of the kids (Alonso, Mesoraco or Grandal) will provide more than what they can buy on the market is also shortsighted.

Bird in the hand.

You can never assume the Reds will be able to get legit production at a premium offensive position on the free agent market. The team just is not a generally effective player in that market.

_Sir_Charles_
11-26-2011, 10:28 PM
I think Grandal will be a nice hitter... for a catcher. Measured against the first-base peer group, I don't think he'd be considered any kind of premium prospect. Even at first base, premium hitters don't grow on trees; just-okay hitters who can play first base do.

His real value is as a catcher, or a trading chip to a team looking for a catcher.

This.

1st base is one of the easier positions to fill IMO. I only tossed out Soto as a suggestion. Personally, I think we end up extending Votto for longer.

RED VAN HOT
11-26-2011, 11:23 PM
I think the board is over rating Shields. He had one year in which he approached top of the rotation form. Trading first round picks on the cusp of the major leagues for expensive middle of the rotation starters is not a wise move for a small market team.

That said, I would do Alonso for Shields straight up, but only if there was some assurance that Votto could be extended. I don't like long term contracts, but Votto is the exception. Barring injuries, I believe he will be a top ten hitter for many more years. Hold on to Grandal. Switch hitting catchers with good bats are valuable commodities.

MikeS21
11-26-2011, 11:29 PM
I dunno. His one year of offensive numbers aren't that shabby - no matter what position he plays. Sure it's just one year, but it was a good one - certainly think its premature to trade him before we see what we've got. He's a first round pick who shoots from A+ to AA to AAA in his first full season of minor league ball and needs to be given a chance to stick somewhere. It's a little early to set his ceiling so low that he is designated as trade bait. I think I would experiment with other positions before I'd trade him away.

At the very least, hang on to him long enough to see if you'd rather trade Mesoraco and keep Grandal as your catcher.

Superdude
11-26-2011, 11:51 PM
It's a little early to set his ceiling so low that he is designated as trade bait. I think I would experiment with other positions before I'd trade him away

The trade ideas have nothing to do with Grandal's lack of ceiling. Why diminish Grandal's value by moving him to first when we can ideally trade him for parallel value at a position of need?

Will M
11-27-2011, 12:14 AM
Can Alonso really play left field adequately? If the answer is yes then I'd keep him & try to get a starter via a different trade. Our other bait would be one of the centerfielders, Volquez, Grandal & some of the highly rated lower level guys (thats code for Billy Hamilton). Alonso is cheap. The Reds need cheap.

If Alonso can't really play left field adequately then he has to go in some sort of a trade. We can't have him as a pinch hitter until 2014.

_Sir_Charles_
11-27-2011, 10:54 AM
I think the board is over rating Shields. He had one year in which he approached top of the rotation form. Trading first round picks on the cusp of the major leagues for expensive middle of the rotation starters is not a wise move for a small market team.

That said, I would do Alonso for Shields straight up, but only if there was some assurance that Votto could be extended. I don't like long term contracts, but Votto is the exception. Barring injuries, I believe he will be a top ten hitter for many more years. Hold on to Grandal. Switch hitting catchers with good bats are valuable commodities.

I've been saying that Shields is getting overrated for a while. I completely agree with you. Straight up, for sure. I'd even do that deal that was proposed by that reporter (Yonder & Yasmani for Shields & a reliever). But regardless...Shields is NOT an ace or a #1.

dougdirt
11-27-2011, 01:21 PM
Why? We have other viable options for first besides Alonso. Soto comes to mind. Several others as well. I don't see the deal listed here happening, but I'd have no problem letting either of those guys go for the right return. They've both blocked and will be for quite a while.
I wouldn't count anyone aside from Alonso or Mesoraco as "viable options" for first base right now. Those two are ready. No one else is close to ready when it comes to first base. Not that we need anyone to be ready right now, but we also don't have anyone who looks like they could be ready for sure by the time we will aside from those two.


Let me kick out another idea. Trade Alonso for pitching. Since Mesoraco is ahead of him in the depth chart at catcher, would you consider looking at Grandal at 1B?

I think if the Reds cannot during 2012 season ink Votto to commit beyong 2013, then Grandal may be your best hitter in the minors and you trade Votto before the 2013 season and let Grandal play 1B.

Between Mesoraco and Grandal, you would put Mesoraco's bat at first, if you were going to be placing the better bat at the position.

mth123
11-27-2011, 01:58 PM
I've been saying that Shields is getting overrated for a while. I completely agree with you. Straight up, for sure. I'd even do that deal that was proposed by that reporter (Yonder & Yasmani for Shields & a reliever). But regardless...Shields is NOT an ace or a #1.

No he's not a number 1, but he, along with Garza are the best pitchers on the market if they are available. He's a clear number 2. Wilson, Buerhle and Wandy are strong number 3's. Jurrjens, Jackson, Danks, Floyd, Oswalt, Gio and Cahill are number threes with questions. Kuroda doesn't seem to be available outside of LA. Darvish is a huge question mark that will cost a ton. The rest of the guys who are reported to be availble are number 4s at best with Paul Maholm probably the best of what's left.

The Reds haven't had a starter of number two caliber since Jose Rijo was healthy in the early 90s (with the possible exception of Harang for one or two fleeting season's). They are hard to get and cost a lot. If the Reds want to sit it out, we'll have to be content to be also rans until somebody comes along who has TOR stuff that can be maintained 3 times through the order, can stay healthy, doesn't walk the ballpark or give up a ton of homers. IMO, the internal candidates are Bailey, Chapman and Volquez (Cueto is a strong number three along the lines of Wandy IMO) and they all have major questions about health, control, maintaining effectiveness multiple times through the order, keeping the ball in the park and having sufficient pitch assortment. Bailey is probably the most likely if his shoulder doesn't explode. Anyone want to count on him as the TOR starter going into a season where we should contend? If not, the Reds are going to need to bite the bullet and deal some guys who will hurt and take on some cash to fill the need. Its a fatal weakness that needs to be addressed IMO. Doing nothing is akin to punting. I'd be fine with playing it safe and dealing lesser (but still good and hard to give up) guys for Wandy or the like, but the Yankees or Red Sox may outbid us.

cinreds21
11-27-2011, 07:38 PM
The latest:


Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune reports that the White Sox are interested in trading for the Reds' Yonder Alonso.
The problem is that Alonso would be blocked by Paul Konerko at first base and Adam Dunn at designated hitter, so the Sox, Rogers says, are trying to determine whether the 24-year-old is a legitimate option to play in the outfield. Either that, or they could ask Konerko to waive his no-trade clause and stick Alonso at first. The Reds would like to get a starter in exchange for Alonso, and Chicago is a fit in that regard with John Danks and Gavin Floyd available.

AmarilloRed
11-27-2011, 08:43 PM
I hardly think it should be a given that Dunn would block Alonso at DH. Dunn should be the one to move to OF.

mattfeet
11-27-2011, 09:09 PM
I hardly think it should be a given that Dunn would block Alonso at DH. Dunn should be the one to move to OF.

If that's the case, then he's going from somewhat worthless to entirely worthless. I sure hope Dunn has a resurgence, but after last year, putting him in the OF would be an exercise in futility.

-Matt

757690
11-27-2011, 09:16 PM
I'm not sure which is dumber, thinking that Alonso can play LF, or thinking that Adam Dunn is blocking anyone.

Jpup
11-27-2011, 09:28 PM
Maybe the Reds can bring Dunn back with the pitching. :)

Vottomatic
11-27-2011, 10:20 PM
This thread is making me dizzy. :confused:

mth123
11-27-2011, 11:00 PM
Danks would be a nice addition to the rotation, but he'd be a one year, mid-rotation rental who would cost $7 Million+. The Sox would need to kick in more if Alonso is involved. I'd be fine dealing Stubbs straight up for him, but not Alonso.

Will M
11-27-2011, 11:36 PM
Danks would be a nice addition to the rotation, but he'd be a one year, mid-rotation rental who would cost $7 Million+. The Sox would need to kick in more if Alonso is involved. I'd be fine dealing Stubbs straight up for him, but not Alonso.

lets say Alonso can be an OPS 800-850 bat for six years. the first 3 are at or close to league minimum. thats a ton to give up for a 1 year rental. now of course Alonso may flop. but he seems like a 'low floor, low ceiling' guy to me.

I don't want to see the Reds trade Alonso for something they could get for one of our 3 center fielders plus other spare parts/minor prospects.

corkedbat
11-28-2011, 03:42 AM
(Tampa Bay) Alonso, Grandal, Volquez and Fisher for Shields, Upton & McGee

(Chi White Sox) Stubbs, Bailey, YRod and Masset for Danks and Quentin

(Oakland) Wood, Lotzkar and Heisey for Huston Street and Seth Smith

Joey Votto
Brandon Phillips
Zach Cozart
Scott Rolen
Carlos Quentin
BJ Upton
Jay Bruce
Devin Mesoraco

Todd Frazier
Paul Janish
Juan Francisco
Dave Sappelt
Seth Smith
Ryan Hannigan

Jonny Cueto
James Shields
Johnny Danks
Bronson Arroyo
Mike Leake
Sam Lecure
Brad Boxberger (or) Jeremy Horst
Logan Ondrusek
Jake McGee
Jose Arredondo
Bill Bray
Huston Street

- The 25th spot comes down to a sixth bench player or seventh bullpen arm
- Chapman starts in AAA to stretch him out - joins the rotation by the trade deadline
- hopefully Gregorious or Rodriquez replaces Janish by the deadline also.

MikeS21
11-28-2011, 07:58 AM
Between Mesoraco and Grandal, you would put Mesoraco's bat at first, if you were going to be placing the better bat at the position.
That would work for me as well.

Too bad Mesoraco can't play LF ... ;)

kaldaniels
11-28-2011, 10:06 AM
(Tampa Bay) Alonso, Grandal, Volquez and Fisher for Shields, Upton & McGee

(Chi White Sox) Stubbs, Bailey, YRod and Masset for Danks and Quentin

(Oakland) Wood, Lotzkar and Heisey for Huston Street and Seth Smith

Joey Votto
Brandon Phillips
Zach Cozart
Scott Rolen
Carlos Quentin
BJ Upton
Jay Bruce
Devin Mesoraco

Todd Frazier
Paul Janish
Juan Francisco
Dave Sappelt
Seth Smith
Ryan Hannigan

Jonny Cueto
James Shields
Johnny Danks
Bronson Arroyo
Mike Leake
Sam Lecure
Brad Boxberger (or) Jeremy Horst
Logan Ondrusek
Jake McGee
Jose Arredondo
Bill Bray
Huston Street

- The 25th spot comes down to a sixth bench player or seventh bullpen arm
- Chapman starts in AAA to stretch him out - joins the rotation by the trade deadline
- hopefully Gregorious or Rodriquez replaces Janish by the deadline also.

Those deals are nice but are all lopsided in the Reds favor. Unless ownership from the other clubs demands said players are traded no gm would make those deals with the Reds.

savafan
11-28-2011, 01:39 PM
(Tampa Bay) Alonso, Grandal, Volquez and Fisher for Shields, Upton & McGee

(Chi White Sox) Stubbs, Bailey, YRod and Masset for Danks and Quentin

(Oakland) Wood, Lotzkar and Heisey for Huston Street and Seth Smith

Joey Votto
Brandon Phillips
Zach Cozart
Scott Rolen
Carlos Quentin
BJ Upton
Jay Bruce
Devin Mesoraco

Todd Frazier
Paul Janish
Juan Francisco
Dave Sappelt
Seth Smith
Ryan Hannigan

Jonny Cueto
James Shields
Johnny Danks
Bronson Arroyo
Mike Leake
Sam Lecure
Brad Boxberger (or) Jeremy Horst
Logan Ondrusek
Jake McGee
Jose Arredondo
Bill Bray
Huston Street

- The 25th spot comes down to a sixth bench player or seventh bullpen arm
- Chapman starts in AAA to stretch him out - joins the rotation by the trade deadline
- hopefully Gregorious or Rodriquez replaces Janish by the deadline also.

I don't think Oakland could trade Huston Street, since he's in Colorado. :)