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View Full Version : Will the Reds non-tender anyone?



cinreds21
11-26-2011, 03:25 PM
Just wanted to see what you guys think. There are a few players who are up for arbitration and the Reds may not want to pay em. Here's the list of the six arbitration eligible players with a projected salary, courtesy of MLBtraderumors.


Nick Masset, RHP, $2.4M
Edinson Volquez, RHP, $2.3M
Homer Bailey, RHP, $1.8M
Bill Bray, LHP, $1.4M
Josť Arredondo, RHP, $1M
Paul Janish, INF, $800K

It's obvious Homer isn't going to be non-tendered, and I don't think Arredondo will be either. Volquez will be traded before he is non-tendered, but the rest, in my opinion, are question marks. Thoughts?

marcshoe
11-26-2011, 03:33 PM
Masset and Bray, I think. Janish wouldn't surprise me, but he's still cheap enough that I think he'll be signed.

Scrap Irony
11-26-2011, 03:44 PM
Bray had a solid year. He'll be kept. (I assume Baker and company figured out he was an outstanding LOOGY and not a set-up man.)

Masset and Janish, IMO, should be shopped first, then jettisoned before paying arbitration. Janish is too expensive for what he gives you, and Masset is far too inconsistent.

RED VAN HOT
11-26-2011, 03:54 PM
I think Volquez, Bailey, Arredondo and Bray are locks to be offered arbitration. Janish is very likely. That price is good for a versatile MI who still has upside. The only questionable one is Masset and I suspect they offer him arbitration as well.

A more interesting question is whether the Reds will try to go multi-year with any of these players.

camisadelgolf
11-26-2011, 04:06 PM
I think none of them will be non-tendered. If they were to be non-tendered, it would've happened by now. However, I think Carlos Fisher will be DFAed before the beginning of spring training.

cinreds21
11-26-2011, 04:08 PM
I think none of them will be non-tendered. If they were to be non-tendered, it would've happened by now. However, I think Carlos Fisher will be DFAed before the beginning of spring training.

Teams do not have to non-tender players until December 12. You'll hear more about it around that time, not really right now.

_Sir_Charles_
11-26-2011, 04:28 PM
I think none of them will be non-tendered. If they were to be non-tendered, it would've happened by now. However, I think Carlos Fisher will be DFAed before the beginning of spring training.

I agree. I know they don't HAVE to do it yet, but they most likely would've already. Also agree about Fisher.

mth123
11-26-2011, 05:30 PM
I thought maybe Janish would be non-tendered, but seeing how much very mediocre MI are going for, I think he has value and will be kept. Masset would be the other potential non-tender. In his case I think it will depend on how agreeable he is to a deal. If he'll sign for $2 Million or less, it will get done. If he's insisting on arb, there are plenty of guys out there who may be better for $3 Million or so. Somebody like Jon Rauch or Frank Francisco would be an example.

IMO, if Masset is non-tendered, I think he'll get what he's seeking from somebody. Hopefully the Reds can make a deal to fill holes and unload some of these decisions in the process.

cinreds21
11-26-2011, 05:37 PM
The thing is, if they do non-tender Masset, it'll make our bullpen quite weak. We're already losing Cordero and possibly Chapman (to the rotation.) A bullpen usually carries seven pitchers. If all three leave, that'll only leave four "established" guys in the pen in Ondrusek, LeCure, Arredondo and Bray. Fisher, Horst and Smith will be on the outside looking in. They will likely have to sign some big league minimum guys or minor league deals with invites to spring training. What I'm getting at is that the Reds have a lot of holes to fill, especially if Masset is non-tendered.

MikeS21
11-26-2011, 06:13 PM
The thing is, if they do non-tender Masset, it'll make our bullpen quite weak. We're already losing Cordero and possibly Chapman (to the rotation.) A bullpen usually carries seven pitchers. If all three leave, that'll only leave four "established" guys in the pen in Ondrusek, LeCure, Arredondo and Bray. Fisher, Horst and Smith will be on the outside looking in. They will likely have to sign some big league minimum guys or minor league deals with invites to spring training. What I'm getting at is that the Reds have a lot of holes to fill, especially if Masset is non-tendered.
Don't forget that - barring a trade - that some rotation arms may slide into the bullpen.

Right now, you have Arroyo, Volquez, Cueto, Bailey, Leake, and Wood. That is six starters. If Chapman slides in, that's seven starters, and if the Reds do manage to pick up a starter from the outside, that's eight starters.

Truthfully, I'd love to see the rotation be #1: Outside Acquisition, #2: Cueto, #3: Bailey, #4: Arroyo, #5: Chapman. That leaves Leake and Wood as relievers and spot starters. I would try Volquez as closer, where he only needs his two best pitches.

cinreds21
11-26-2011, 06:23 PM
Don't forget that - barring a trade - that some rotation arms may slide into the bullpen.

Right now, you have Arroyo, Volquez, Cueto, Bailey, Leake, and Wood. That is six starters. If Chapman slides in, that's seven starters, and if the Reds do manage to pick up a starter from the outside, that's eight starters.

Truthfully, I'd love to see the rotation be #1: Outside Acquisition, #2: Cueto, #3: Bailey, #4: Arroyo, #5: Chapman. That leaves Leake and Wood as relievers and spot starters. I would try Volquez as closer, where he only needs his two best pitches.

I thought about mentioning it, but I thought it'd be too confusing. I don't know about Leake in the bullpen though. He had a great season once he came back from Louisville. Wood, on the other hand, I could see as a lefty longman. Volquez as a closer in very interesting. He may be too inconsistant, but I haven't thought too much about that possibility.

camisadelgolf
11-26-2011, 06:26 PM
I realize that Masset had a down year, but you'd have to be crazy to non-tender him. I'm sure there's a long list of teams that would give up something of value for the rights to him.

cinreds21
11-26-2011, 06:34 PM
Just looked at Masset's monthly numbers. He only had one bad month, August. He had a 7.20 ERA in 10 innings pitched (12 games.) In September he pitched in 10 games (eight innings) and registered a 1.13 ERA. I know ERA isn't everything, but just something to look at. I don't think the Reds should non-tender him as he'll likely be first in line if the Reds fail to acquire a closer.

mth123
11-26-2011, 07:09 PM
The thing is, if they do non-tender Masset, it'll make our bullpen quite weak. We're already losing Cordero and possibly Chapman (to the rotation.) A bullpen usually carries seven pitchers. If all three leave, that'll only leave four "established" guys in the pen in Ondrusek, LeCure, Arredondo and Bray. Fisher, Horst and Smith will be on the outside looking in. They will likely have to sign some big league minimum guys or minor league deals with invites to spring training. What I'm getting at is that the Reds have a lot of holes to fill, especially if Masset is non-tendered.

I'd say Travis Wood goes into the pen and there are lots of Masset types on the market. Frank Francisco, Jon Rauch, Fernando Rodney, Joel Peralta, Joel Zumaya, Scott Linebrink, Matt Capps, Jonathon Broxton, etc, etc, etc. I think the price will be cheaper for a free agent of that caliber than for Masset in arb. I think Masset may be in for a bounce back (especially if the Reds can get a starter and keep from using him up by June 1). If the Reds could use the flooded market as leverage to get him to agree to a reasonable deal, I'd prefer to keep Masset, but there is no way I'd risk letting an arbitrator decide how much he'll make. Many of those guys are on contracts in excess of $5 Million per year. I'd worry that an arbitrator could easily award a big increase and turn even an improved Masset into a negative.

mth123
11-26-2011, 07:13 PM
I realize that Masset had a down year, but you'd have to be crazy to non-tender him. I'm sure there's a long list of teams that would give up something of value for the rights to him.

I agree, I hope the Reds are trying hard to sign Masset right now and not waiting until arb season. If they can't get a reasonable deal, he needs to be part of the package for whatever they may acquire before it gets to the point of making an arb decision.

cinreds21
11-26-2011, 07:17 PM
Don't know exactly where to put this, but since we talked about the starting rotation a bit I'll put it here. I was reading MLB Depth Charts and they mentioned something I haven't thought about recently, is the possibility of Chapman starting 2012 in Triple-A. It's unlikely, but if they really want Aroldis to start then that is a possibility, especially since he couldn't start in Winter Ball. Let him start in Louisville for a month and a half and then bring him up when an injury or someone is just doing horrible.

marcshoe
11-26-2011, 08:32 PM
Just looked at the numbers, and Bray had a much better season than I realized. I knew he had a very nice stretch, but I hadn't realized his overall numbers were so good.

_Sir_Charles_
11-26-2011, 10:32 PM
Don't forget that - barring a trade - that some rotation arms may slide into the bullpen.

Right now, you have Arroyo, Volquez, Cueto, Bailey, Leake, and Wood. That is six starters. If Chapman slides in, that's seven starters, and if the Reds do manage to pick up a starter from the outside, that's eight starters.

Truthfully, I'd love to see the rotation be #1: Outside Acquisition, #2: Cueto, #3: Bailey, #4: Arroyo, #5: Chapman. That leaves Leake and Wood as relievers and spot starters. I would try Volquez as closer, where he only needs his two best pitches.

I think one or two starters will end up getting dealt in one way or another before the season begins. And unless he does an about-face...I think I'd prefer to see Bronson in the pen well before Leake. It also wouldn't surprise me if we see Aroldis starting in L'ville quite a bit (should've happened last season, but alas not).

dfs
11-26-2011, 10:44 PM
I could see the reds letting Janish go. I don't think it will happen, but I could see it happen. I can't see this club letting any pitcher with potential walk.

REDREAD
11-27-2011, 10:28 PM
I think Janish will settle on a salary before the deadline to go to arb.

With Renturia departing, he only has the hurt Cozart ahead of him on the depth chart. After last year, I don't think Janish has any grand delusions that he's a ML starter. Why should he risk being non tendered and possibly be out of a job permanently? IIRC, he was sent down to the minors and the other clubs had a chance to claim him but didn't.. maybe my memory is wrong on this.. but that was my impression.

No way do you let Bray and Masset go. Hopefully some sucker will want to take on Volquez as a rehab project and we get some trade value for him.
It's not as if Volquez will be awarded that much if he does go to arb.