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brm7675
11-29-2011, 06:16 PM
According to his latest tweet, his word from his agent is that things are moving ahead pretty well on making Brandon a Reds for life as he puts it. I am willing to bet at Redsfest Reds will announce a long term deal with Brandon, something along 5-6 year deal...

KOBasinger
11-29-2011, 06:40 PM
I can only hope.

joe51391
11-29-2011, 07:13 PM
nothing says playing the future like signing a guy to a bad contract on the wrong side of 30. good job. sounds like another jim bowden move to me

dMaus14
11-29-2011, 07:59 PM
Should have saved that money for Votto! LOL

mroby85
11-29-2011, 08:42 PM
Should have saved that money for Votto! LOL

X2, I wouldn't be spending $ like this until I was sure I had enough to lock Votto up and build around him accordingly. (Not an insult to Phillips, I like him)

LegallyMinded
11-29-2011, 08:43 PM
According to his latest tweet, his word from his agent is that things are moving ahead pretty well on making Brandon a Reds for life as he puts it. I am willing to bet at Redsfest Reds will announce a long term deal with Brandon, something along 5-6 year deal...

I'd be leery of a 5 or 6 year deal for a thirty year old second baseman. For whatever reason, second baseman seem to decline relatively quickly. Dave Cameron, for instance, wrote an article on this a few months ago and noted "the rate of aging among second baseman has been so severe that it has become a truism in baseball that players who man the keystone position simply donít age well."

In the same article, Cameron explained that one reason for that decline might be that second basemen are typically less gifted athletes who were converted from shortstop or third base to play 2B. As such, they have less athletic talent to begin with, and thus seem to decline more rapidly than other positions.

This explanation applies to Phillips, of course, since he began his career as a shortstop, but in recent years, a lot of people have batted about the idea of trying to shift Phillips back to short. Perhaps that's an indication that Phillips is more gifted than the average second baseman, and won't suffer a similarly steep decline, but I'm not sure I'd bet on it.

dMaus14
11-29-2011, 09:00 PM
The two type of second basemand who I would think of declining rapidly would be power hitters who obviously lose their ability to drive the ball, ala Bret Boone (trust me, he performed well later on because of steroids) and the Placido Polanco types. To me, Brandon is neither. He is more athletic than those types; he doesn't hit for power but he isn't a slap it around guy like Polanco. Plus most of the second baseman that he has mentioned in that article either had a history from onset of injuries (Brian Roberts) or somehow had a psychological breakdown which led to his failure (Chuck Knoblauch). Brandon hasn't been injured for a prolonged period of time, hasn't had his production drastically rise or fall over time other than his 30 HR year. Do I think he will produce for all 5-6 the exact same no. But I also don't think he will make us regret his contract going into year 3.

R_Webb18
11-29-2011, 11:45 PM
some ppl don't want them to do this but i do.

bounty37h
11-30-2011, 09:49 AM
Reds are saying they aren't that close.

KYRedLeg
11-30-2011, 10:03 AM
Wonder if this is a bit of posturing by Phillips...

"I told everyone we were close, and I was willing...but the organization just wouldn't come through!"

Make himself out to be the good guy if they aren't able to ink a deal (which I hope they're not).

alett12
11-30-2011, 10:05 AM
I would like to see a 3 year deal with 2 option years like they had on the last contract

dMaus14
11-30-2011, 12:25 PM
Will someone go slap Walt to not sign him so that we can start saving for Votto's payday! We are gonna need every dime we can if we intend to keep Votto longterm so he can be paid around $22.5-25M a year and take up about 30% of our payroll alone (not to mention 50% of our payroll including Chapman, Bruce and Cueto's contracts in 2014). And if we plan on doing that, extending Phillips is no go!

Actually, I can't wait for next offseason! We have just about the same amount of money invested for 2013 ($52.3M) that we do in 2012 ($52.5M) and its owed to fewer amount of players (2012 -11; 2013-5). That price will likely go up if we intend to trade prospects for SP in 2012, which then lead to possibly more holes to fill with fewer financial resources, not mention arbitration raises (yes, Homer Bailey will probably cost around $3.2-4M in 2013 for his "amazing" production. And if we sign Phillips to an extension, it could really get fun. because then it will be around $65M for 6 players and the payroll is like to be around $90M. Good luck Walt! I am rooting for you!

brm7675
11-30-2011, 12:34 PM
The signing of Brandon will in no way impact on the Reds ability to sign Votto. IF Bob wants to sign Votto he will, and he won't worry what he is paying Brandon.

alett12
11-30-2011, 03:51 PM
Another thing with signing Votto if they were to back log some of the money it would be a big help to the books and it isn't like either of them are hurting for cash in the 1st place

Girevik
11-30-2011, 03:55 PM
I thik there's MAYBE a 20% chance that the Reds sign Votto. I think he's going for the biggest payday, and I think there will be teams with more money than the Reds in on thim. I'm not willing to let Phillips walk just to increase that to a 22% chance of signing him.

Red Raindog
11-30-2011, 07:10 PM
I thik there's MAYBE a 20% chance that the Reds sign Votto. I think he's going for the biggest payday, and I think there will be teams with more money than the Reds in on thim. I'm not willing to let Phillips walk just to increase that to a 22% chance of signing him.

__________________
I want an official Red Ryder, carbine action, 200-shot range model air rifle!

+1 -- and you'll shoot your eye with that thing :laugh:

LegallyMinded
11-30-2011, 08:14 PM
I'm not pulling for the Reds to lock up Phillips to a long term deal, but are people perhaps overstating the effect signing Phillips would have on signing Votto? In 2014 and 2015, the Reds only have 23M and 12.8M in committed salary. By comparison, the Blue Jays-- a team that many seem to feel is destined to sign Votto-- have 23.5 and 21.5M committed. I just don't think the Reds are overly extended at this time, or at least not to the point where they can't even consider a multi-year deal for Phillips.

dMaus14
11-30-2011, 09:30 PM
Yea and if you sign Votto to what Prince and Albert will get (about between 7-9 years at $25 per year), then in 2014 alone, $50M of a projected $90M payroll will go to 4 players. Not good business when you have to sign 21 other players to play with the remaining $40.

LegallyMinded
11-30-2011, 10:15 PM
Yea and if you sign Votto to what Prince and Albert will get (about between 7-9 years at $25 per year), then in 2014 alone, $50M of a projected $90M payroll will go to 4 players. Not good business when you have to sign 21 other players to play with the remaining $40.

A top heavy payroll isn't necessarily crippling, though. The Cardinals this year, for instance, spent almost half their payroll on 4 players, and that seemed to work out pretty well.

Besides, if having a top-heavy payroll does constrain Jocketty's options a bit, perhaps it will have a "starve the beast" effect and make him think twice about handing out contracts like Bronson's extension. :)

R_Webb18
12-01-2011, 12:01 AM
yea lets save up to give votto 25% of payroll. plz you need more than 1 player.

dMaus14
12-01-2011, 01:11 AM
The difference between the Cardinals using half of their payroll and the Reds using half of their payroll on 4 players is fairly simple ... almost $30M more payroll! The Reds payroll in 2011 was $80.8M and the Cardinals had a payroll of $109M in 2011. They used $60M spread over 5 players, but still had $50M left to use. Not to mention out of that $60M, their 3-4-5 hitters and their #1 and #3 SP were paid. Your argument of Cardinals having 5 guys who take up 50% of their payroll is saying that we should sign Votto because the Yankees have 4 guys that make up 50% of their payroll. BTW the Yankees top 4 salaries make up for 48% of their $200M payroll which is ridiculous.

LegallyMinded
12-01-2011, 11:26 AM
The difference between the Cardinals using half of their payroll and the Reds using half of their payroll on 4 players is fairly simple ... almost $30M more payroll! The Reds payroll in 2011 was $80.8M and the Cardinals had a payroll of $109M in 2011. They used $60M spread over 5 players, but still had $50M left to use. Not to mention out of that $60M, their 3-4-5 hitters and their #1 and #3 SP were paid. Your argument of Cardinals having 5 guys who take up 50% of their payroll is saying that we should sign Votto because the Yankees have 4 guys that make up 50% of their payroll. BTW the Yankees top 4 salaries make up for 48% of their $200M payroll which is ridiculous.

I don't think the size of the payroll really has much relation to whether you can win with a particular distribution of that payroll. You noted the Yankees, for instance, have 4 guys who take up 50% of their 200M dollar payroll. At the opposite end of the spectrum, you have teams like the 2010 Rays, who had 4 guys who took up well over half of their payroll. And in the middle, you have teams like the Cardinals, as we already described. These teams had vastly different payrolls, and yet, none of them had trouble finding success on the field.

LegallyMinded
12-01-2011, 09:05 PM
Getting back to Brandon in particular, he said today (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/12/nl-central-notes-garza-marshall-pujols-phillips.html) talks were moving in the right direction. Hopefully this means Jocketty is trying to get the negotiations wrapped up before the winter meetings start so he can focus on pulling off a deal to upgrade the rotation, although I find it more likely Brandon is just tweeting because he likes to hear himself tweet.