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View Full Version : Keith Law's Top 50 MLB players age 25 or under



Ohayou
12-01-2011, 05:35 PM
I'm not going to post the entire list, just the three Reds that did:

#22 Jay Bruce RF (24)
"Analysis: Bruce has substantial power, shows patience, and plays an above-average right field, so for him, the difference between being an above-average player and a star will come down to his contact rates and his batting average on balls in play.

He's very strong in both his upper and lower halves and gets good hip rotation, producing power to all fields, but his swing is so ferocious that the cost of his power is more swings and misses. Bruce has improved against left-handed pitchers but is still much weaker than he is against right-handers, which may limit his ceiling slightly. Still, he's a threat to hit 40 homers a year at his peak with enough walks to keep his OBP up even in the years when he hits .260."

#33 Aroldis Chapman LHP (23)
"Analysis: He's electric in relief but has a starter's repertoire and some history succeeding in that role before he defected. I've personally clocked Chapman up to 104 mph in one outing, and up to 101 in others, although as a starter he'd probably sit 94-97 or so with an upper-80s slider. I also saw him throw a changeup in spring training of 2010, but he was just fastball-slider in the regular season.

His arm might be the fastest I've ever seen, and he didn't look sharp in the Arizona Fall League before the Reds shut him down with a sore shoulder. If he's healthy enough to start -- a huge question right now -- it's ace stuff with an athletic frame that should hold up, but he's ranked down here because the probability of him reaching his ceiling got a lot lower this fall."

#48 Mike Leake RHP (24)
"Analysis: Leake is a great athlete with a kitchen-sink assortment of pitches led by an upper-80s two-seamer and a cutter at almost the same velocity, so the hitter doesn't know if the pitch is coming at him or tailing away. He throws strikes and gets ground balls while fielding his position well, but doesn't have a single pitch that will induce a ton of strikeouts, limiting his ceiling somewhat.

He was overworked in 2010, hurt his shoulder, and started horribly in 2011, but after a brief demotion was back to his old self, and should be an above-average starter going forward."

LegallyMinded
12-01-2011, 08:40 PM
#48 Mike Leake RHP (24)
"Analysis: Leake is a great athlete with a kitchen-sink assortment of pitches led by an upper-80s two-seamer and a cutter at almost the same velocity, so the hitter doesn't know if the pitch is coming at him or tailing away. He throws strikes and gets ground balls while fielding his position well, but doesn't have a single pitch that will induce a ton of strikeouts, limiting his ceiling somewhat.

He was overworked in 2010, hurt his shoulder, and started horribly in 2011, but after a brief demotion was back to his old self, and should be an above-average starter going forward."

Nice to read some positive commentary about the Reds rotation for once, in light of Chapman's troubled fall, uncertainty regarding Volquez, and so on. I'm not too familiar with Keith Law's analysis though-- does anyone know if he's accurate at all, or should we take what he says about Leake with a grain of salt?

nmculbreth
12-02-2011, 01:22 AM
It's kind of hard to take seriously any list that has Jay Bruce at 22nd, behind the likes of Jason Heyward, Cameron Maybin, Logan Morrison, Brett Anderson and Pablo Sandoval.

LegallyMinded
12-02-2011, 11:14 AM
It's kind of hard to take seriously any list that has Jay Bruce at 22nd, behind the likes of Jason Heyward, Cameron Maybin, Logan Morrison, Brett Anderson and Pablo Sandoval.

Agreed on Maybin and Morrison. Sandoval, however, had a fantastic year last season. He put up a .315/.357/.552 line and, according to UZR, played the 2nd best third base in the Majors. I think his very poor 2010 is still coloring the perception of his abilities, but he probably is one of the best young hitters in the game.

Ohayou
12-02-2011, 06:31 PM
It's kind of hard to take seriously any list that has Jay Bruce at 22nd, behind the likes of Jason Heyward, Cameron Maybin, Logan Morrison, Brett Anderson and Pablo Sandoval.

I have no problem with him being ranked behind Heyward or Sandoval, but I agree - there are way too many unproven players ahead of him.

Also, Rick Porcello should not be ahead of guys like Chacin, Hanson, and Hellickson.

The DARK
12-02-2011, 06:57 PM
Looks more like his personal fantasy dynasty draft. McCutchen had a worse season than Bruce overall at pretty much the same age, which somehow gets him above a Cy Young winner that arguably had a better season than Verlander. Meanwhile, Morrison's mediocre season at an unimportant position somehow is good enough for 16 (whilst I expect Alonso to put up better numbers), and the NL rookie of the year's season doesn't get him above 49. As much as I don't get worked up over subjective lists like this, a lot of these rankings are completely unfounded.