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View Full Version : Is our two year window realistic?



dMaus14
12-08-2011, 01:42 AM
Looking at the standings from last year, here is where we would have finished in all NL divisions with our 79-83 record:

East - 4th place (behind Philly, Atlanta, Washington)
Central - 3rd place (behind Milwaukee, St. Louis)
West - 4th place (behind Arizona, San Francisco, Los Angeles)
Wild Card - 6th behind (STL, ATL, SF, LAD, WAS)

My question is based on these standings, is our two year window to win really there or are we fooling ourselves into thinking it is because we can't accept the fact that Joey Votto is going to leave? He is going to get $22-25M a year and that isn't good for us to do business unless Bob pumps the payroll to $100+M, which won't happen.

If you don't think we can win in the next two years, who should we trade and what should we look for in return?

R_Webb18
12-08-2011, 01:54 AM
yea i do.

the fact is we look at last years record and say we need this/that which might be true but tbh we just flat out had so many things that went wrong last year.

obv we would need to improve tho

dMaus14
12-08-2011, 02:20 AM
But let me ask you this, why was last year the year that everything went wrong? Why can't we see 2010 as a year when we overachieved and 2011 we underachieved but we are really just a 82-85 win team. Neither of which is going to get us in the playoffs. Look at every team in the playoffs this past year:

Yankees: CC Sabathia - Jeter, Cano, Teixeira, Rodriguez
Tigers: Verlander - Young, Cabrera, Martinez
Rays: Shields, Price - Upton, Zobrist, Longoria
Rangers: Wilson - Kinsler, Andrus, Hamilton, Young, Cruz

Philadelphia: Halladay, Lee, Hamels - Rollins, Utley, Howard
Milwaukee: Greinke, Marcum, Gallardo - Weeks, Braun, Fielder
St. Louis: Carpenter, Garcia - Berkman, Pujols, Holliday
Arizona: Kennedy, Saunders - Upton, Young

Cueto is not anywhere near any pitcher on the list except Kennedy and Saunders. The middle of our lineup is not as good as any of those lineups except for Upton and Young. The team that we compare to best is Arizona, which the difference between their future in 2012 to ours in 2011 is that their division doesn't have a team that has done anything this offseason, unlike Milwaukee and St. Louis last year. Their are no "ACE" available and Walt isn't going to give up premium prospects unless he gets that "ACE". We don't have money to get that middle of the order RH hitter to separate Votto and Bruce. We just lost our closer and have little money to get a replacement and don't want to give up premium prospects for a back end relief help. We have a rookie at SS, our 3B is injury prone backed up by a rookie. Our LF is between 2 rookies and a guy who has only gotten partial playing time. We also have 2 good SP, 2 high potential SP who haven't showed a lot of promise in 3 years, 1 overpaid innings eater and a guy who is a #5-6 SP. To me that sounds like a team getting ready to compete in 2013 not 2012.

R_Webb18
12-08-2011, 02:33 AM
I just feel if alsono / cozart playin most the time that = upgrade
i think rolen does decent job next year
i think arroyo does better
i think 1 or 2 of the rest of the starters besides cuteo does great/good
i think votto/bp will do there thing.

will5979
12-08-2011, 09:32 AM
I have a feeling Arroyo will bounce back.

Votto/BP/Bruce/Heisey will put up numbers, if our Idiot manager starts Heisey...:bang:

Hopefully Pujols and Fielder leaves the NL Central.

Hopefully Rolen bounces back.



If, and believe me that a hypothetical IF, all of the above happens we will run away with the Central next year.

That being the case Walt will HAVE to pull the trigger at the deadline to bring in a few rental players to put this team over the top for the Series, I'm willing to mortage the future for 2-3 good seasons and a possible World Series ring, my soul will not be at rest until I can witness another Cincinnati World Series Championship.

LegallyMinded
12-08-2011, 10:27 AM
Look at every team in the playoffs this past year:

Yankees: CC Sabathia - Jeter, Cano, Teixeira, Rodriguez
Tigers: Verlander - Young, Cabrera, Martinez
Rays: Shields, Price - Upton, Zobrist, Longoria
Rangers: Wilson - Kinsler, Andrus, Hamilton, Young, Cruz

Philadelphia: Halladay, Lee, Hamels - Rollins, Utley, Howard
Milwaukee: Greinke, Marcum, Gallardo - Weeks, Braun, Fielder
St. Louis: Carpenter, Garcia - Berkman, Pujols, Holliday
Arizona: Kennedy, Saunders - Upton, Young

The middle of our lineup is not as good as any of those lineups except for Upton and Young. The team that we compare to best is Arizona, which the difference between their future in 2012 to ours in 2011 is that their division doesn't have a team that has done anything this offseason, unlike Milwaukee and St. Louis last year. .



I wouldn't worry about comparing the middle of our lineup to other teams. The Reds were second in the NL in runs scored last year, despite significant playing time being given to Janish, Renteria and Fred Lewis. With Cozart, Heisey and potentially Alonso replace the "production" of those three, I anticipate the Reds lineup as a whole again being one of the best in the league.

The question really comes down to the pitching, and whether Jocketty can or will do anything to improve the staff. We know he's trying to move Volquez and has interest in acquiring a starter, and I think if he gets those moves done, the Reds can at least be in the playoff hunt the next two years.

40YrRedsFan
12-08-2011, 05:45 PM
I watch MLB channel a lot. In their highlight shows of the past few years (except for 2010) , the Reds as a team and the players individually rarely are shown ( except for BP fielding or JV hitting). In other teams or players clips, we see Reds pitchers giving up late hits or HR's for the opposition to win. I think this shows we are a middle of the road team and 2010 may have been an aberration. We need to put a definite plan in play to go for it sooner rather than later. BP and JV can't do it all. The time is now. Look what the Angels just did. They have thrown all their eggs in the basket to win in 2012. How would you like to face Weaver, Haren, and CJ Wilson in a series, and then have to pitch to Abreu, Pujols, Hunter, and Wells in a row.

dMaus14
12-08-2011, 06:43 PM
I wouldn't worry about comparing the middle of our lineup to other teams. The Reds were second in the NL in runs scored last year, despite significant playing time being given to Janish, Renteria and Fred Lewis. With Cozart, Heisey and potentially Alonso replace the "production" of those three, I anticipate the Reds lineup as a whole again being one of the best in the league.

The question really comes down to the pitching, and whether Jocketty can or will do anything to improve the staff. We know he's trying to move Volquez and has interest in acquiring a starter, and I think if he gets those moves done, the Reds can at least be in the playoff hunt the next two years.

I should worry about the middle of our lineup because we were at the top of the league in offensive production based solely on GABP. Our 2010 team, which led the league in almost every offensive category, was the second team in MLB history to be no hit in the postseason.

So again I say, other than Votto and Phillips and maybe Bruce what do we have to really compete? Injured or underperformed: Rolen, Stubbs; Rookies: Cozart, Francisco, Mesoraco, Sappelt, Alonso.

The White Sox had the same record as us, fewer games out of first place, a better rotation, a better bullpen and the infield are almost equal yet they decided to go into rebuilding mode. We have less financial maneuverability and more question marks going into the offseason.

I honestly don't by that we have what we need to compete in 2012 except for a SP, and we will be fine if we fix holes in house (that is said from members of RZ).

R_Webb18
12-08-2011, 06:55 PM
I should worry about the middle of our lineup because we were at the top of the league in offensive production based solely on GABP. Our 2010 team, which led the league in almost every offensive category, was the second team in MLB history to be no hit in the postseason.

So again I say, other than Votto and Phillips and maybe Bruce what do we have to really compete? Injured or underperformed: Rolen, Stubbs; Rookies: Cozart, Francisco, Mesoraco, Sappelt, Alonso.

The White Sox had the same record as us, fewer games out of first place, a better rotation, a better bullpen and the infield are almost equal yet they decided to go into rebuilding mode. We have less financial maneuverability and more question marks going into the offseason.

I honestly don't by that we have what we need to compete in 2012 except for a SP, and we will be fine if we fix holes in house (that is said from members of RZ).

ur over looking things.

LegallyMinded
12-08-2011, 07:07 PM
I should worry about the middle of our lineup because we were at the top of the league in offensive production based solely on GABP. Our 2010 team, which led the league in almost every offensive category, was the second team in MLB history to be no hit in the postseason.

So again I say, other than Votto and Phillips and maybe Bruce what do we have to really compete? Injured or underperformed: Rolen, Stubbs; Rookies: Cozart, Francisco, Mesoraco, Sappelt, Alonso.


The Reds scored the third most runs of any NL team on the road last year. Over the last two years, they're second in the NL in runs scored on the road. In short, they can hit outside of GABP.

Also, if anything, you should be optimistic about next year based on the fact that so many Reds were rookies or did under-perform. Players like Stubbs are still young enough that we might expect improvement, and players like Rolen had such dreadful years it's hard to imagine they'll be worse this season.