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dcameron24
12-09-2011, 12:35 PM
Completely random thoughts so please don't blast me as I usually suck at these sort of things. With Pujols gone and Fielder more than likely gone I think now is the time for the Reds to capitalize on the foundation they have (Votto specifically) and make a run at it. Atlanta is said to be looking for SS/OF plus for Jurrjens and Tampa Bay has made it known they are interested in Alonso.

How about the following (may be too little/too much)...

Cozart/Heisey/Wood for Jurrjens

Alonso/Grandal/Volquez/Plus for Shields/Upton

Salaries should be close to:
Jurrjens - 5m (Arbitration)
Upton - 6m (Arbitration)
Shields - 7m (Under Contract)

This would be a lot of money to take on for the Reds, but now is as good of a time to do it as they'll have in the next couple years. Also, they'll be getting 2 supplemental picks for Hernandez and Cordero so losing some of the "depth", prospect-wise, wouldn't kill them too bad.

They could then do something like Cody Ross to fill the 4th OF spot and Ronny Cedeno/Ryan Theriot to fill Cozart's spot.

Lineup:
Phillips 2b
Upton LF
Votto 1b
Rolen 3b
Bruce RF
Stubbs CF
Mesoraco/Hanigan C
Cedeno/Theriot SS

Rotation:
Cueto
Jurrjens
Shields
Chapman
Arroyo

Thoughts?

brm7675
12-09-2011, 01:12 PM
Why in the world would you give up anything for Jurrjens? He is injuried prone and nothing better then what we have?

izzy's dad
12-09-2011, 01:31 PM
Upton is a lot like Drew Stubbs. Good but not great power, speed, good glove, and lots of strikeouts. An outfield of Upton, Stubbs, and Bruce strikes out about 500 times a season, and that is way too many. At this point I don't see any major moves being made, at least none that improve the club. Walt will bring in some scrap heap players to fill roles, and Dusty will give them way too much playing time. Unless we see dramatic improvement from Drew Stubbs, Chris Heisey, Travis Wood, Homer Bailey, etc. We are looking at another long season. Anyway that is my rant of the day.

will5979
12-09-2011, 01:35 PM
1st I would have signed Jose Reyes.

Next I would trade for the 26 year old LH Starter from Oakland.

3rd I would trade for Corey Hart.

dcameron24
12-09-2011, 02:07 PM
Why in the world would you give up anything for Jurrjens? He is injuried prone and nothing better then what we have?

Mainly I was just going off the "rumors" floating around...

How about scratching Jurrjens and making Andrew Bailey the target with some combination of those players?

dcameron24
12-09-2011, 02:10 PM
Upton is a lot like Drew Stubbs. Good but not great power, speed, good glove, and lots of strikeouts. An outfield of Upton, Stubbs, and Bruce strikes out about 500 times a season, and that is way too many. At this point I don't see any major moves being made, at least none that improve the club. Walt will bring in some scrap heap players to fill roles, and Dusty will give them way too much playing time. Unless we see dramatic improvement from Drew Stubbs, Chris Heisey, Travis Wood, Homer Bailey, etc. We are looking at another long season. Anyway that is my rant of the day.

I think for what you lose in strikeouts (hence trying to spread them out a little in the hypothetical lineup) you gain some power, ability to drive in runs and defense. An outfield of Upton, Stubbs and Bruce is the best defensive outfield in the league in my opinion.

izzy's dad
12-09-2011, 02:25 PM
I think for what you lose in strikeouts (hence trying to spread them out a little in the hypothetical lineup) you gain some power, ability to drive in runs and defense. An outfield of Upton, Stubbs and Bruce is the best defensive outfield in the league in my opinion.

I agree with you. The defense would be superb. But trying to spread those strikeouts around the current Reds lineup would be hard. We have so few hitters that are good at making consistent contact that I worry it would be impossible to spread out those Ks. I do think Upton would benefit from a move to the NL Central.

bounty37h
12-12-2011, 11:05 AM
Completely random thoughts so please don't blast me as I usually suck at these sort of things. With Pujols gone and Fielder more than likely gone I think now is the time for the Reds to capitalize on the foundation they have (Votto specifically) and make a run at it. Atlanta is said to be looking for SS/OF plus for Jurrjens and Tampa Bay has made it known they are interested in Alonso.

How about the following (may be too little/too much)...

Cozart/Heisey/Wood for Jurrjens

Alonso/Grandal/Volquez/Plus for Shields/Upton

Salaries should be close to:
Jurrjens - 5m (Arbitration)
Upton - 6m (Arbitration)
Shields - 7m (Under Contract)

This would be a lot of money to take on for the Reds, but now is as good of a time to do it as they'll have in the next couple years. Also, they'll be getting 2 supplemental picks for Hernandez and Cordero so losing some of the "depth", prospect-wise, wouldn't kill them too bad.

They could then do something like Cody Ross to fill the 4th OF spot and Ronny Cedeno/Ryan Theriot to fill Cozart's spot.

Lineup:
Phillips 2b
Upton LF
Votto 1b
Rolen 3b
Bruce RF
Stubbs CF
Mesoraco/Hanigan C
Cedeno/Theriot SS

Rotation:
Cueto
Jurrjens
Shields
Chapman
Arroyo

Thoughts?

Not interested in Upton at all.

dMaus14
12-12-2011, 02:57 PM
I will probably be tar and feathered but here's what I would do:

Beginning payroll after arbitration salaries, league minimum salaries, Votto and Arroyo's actual salary not including signing bonuses and Phillip's options: $69.5M
** My untouchables: Hamilton, Mesoraco, Grandal, Cueto, Bruce, Leake, Alonso

Trade:
Joey Votto - $9.5M
Homer Bailey - $1.8M
-FOR-
Yunel Escobar - $5M
Brandon Morrow - $4.2M
Deck McGuire - minors
Kyle Drabek - $.5

** save $2.1M: get a SS/leadoff, #2-3 power arm and 2 high potential SP for AA/AAA
** new payroll = $67.5M

Trade:
Dave Sappelt - minors
Edinson Volquez - $2.3M
Travis Wood - $.5M
Todd Frazier - minors
-FOR-
John Danks - $7.6M

** add $4.8M and a #2-3 SP
** new payroll = $72.3M

Sign Michael Cuddyer to a 3 year / $30M (club option for 4th year; $2M signing bonus, $1M buyout so AAV = $9M)
** add $9M and a middle of the order RH power bat who can play 3B, 1B and LF
** new payroll = $81.3M

Rotation: Cueto, Danks, Morrow, Leake, Arroyo, Wood
CL: Chapman
Bullpen: Masset, Ondrusek, LeCure, Bray, Arredondo

1 - Escobar - SS
2 - Phillips - 2B
3 - Alonso - 1B
4 - Cuddyer - LF
5 - Bruce - RF
6 - Rolen - 3B
7 - Stubbs - CF
8 - Mesoraco - C

Bench: Hanigan, Heisey, Cozart, Cairo, Francisco

Total Payroll: $81.3M

Fill middle of the order bat and LF, have a SS and leadoff batter, good rotation 1-4 and still some money to spend

brad1176
12-12-2011, 03:59 PM
Who would your 5th starter be? You have Wood listed but you traded him away in the Danks deal.

dMaus14
12-12-2011, 04:30 PM
Missed that on accident sorry! But Arroyo would be my 5th guy, Wood would be in RP with Drabek ready in AAA. I meant Corcinco in the trade for Danks.

R_Webb18
12-12-2011, 04:46 PM
Why in the world would you give up anything for Jurrjens? He is injuried prone

this is true

and nothing better then what we have?

this is not true

Redsnake
12-12-2011, 04:46 PM
dMaus14 love the breakdown. Forgive me if I use some of your thoughts and ideas.
Here's my GM moves.
Untouchables: Hamilton, Mesoraco, Grandal, Cueto, Bruce, Leake, Alonso

Trade #1
Toronto:
Joey Votto
Homer Bailey
Dave Sappelt
Zack Cozart

Reds:
Brett Lawrie
Yunel Escobar
Brandon Morrow

This deal starts and ends with Brett Lawrie. If he's not in the deal then Vottofor Bautista straight up.

Trade #2
WSox:
Edinson Volquez
Todd Frazier
Juan Fransico
Bronson Arroyo
Yorman Rodriguez
Nefi Soto

Reds:
John Danks
Carlos Quentin
The Soxs get younger and with Arroyo going back to them the money stay pretty close to even. The Reds only have control of the two for one year.

#1 Morrow
#2 Cueto
#3 Danks
#4 Leake
#5 Chapman (Chapman @ #5 = less expectations and greater return)
CL Boxberger
Bullpen: Masset, Ondrusek, LeCure, Bray, Arredondo, Wood


1 - Escobar - SS
2 - Phillips - 2B
3 - Alonso - 1B
4 - Quentin - LF
5 - Bruce - RF
6 - Lawrie - 3B
7 - Stubbs - CF
8 - Mesoraco - C

Bench: Hanigan, Heisey, Cairo, Rolen, Janish

dMaus14
12-12-2011, 06:33 PM
My only problem with yours compared to mine is that even though it basically gets the same return I am keeping more prospects in the system. I know that we need to win now but by keeping more prospects in the system we can use those prospects later around the trade deadline for upgrades for RP, a hitter or whatever. Those prospects such as Juan Francisco, Y. Rodriguez, Soto and Cozart could be used later. That's just how I feel about it but overall I do think we can be a better team without Votto if we trade him properly.

izzy's dad
12-12-2011, 08:06 PM
Not trying to derail the thread with this post. But any deal involving Votto now or in the future must return elite prospects. Not good, not really good, I am talking supreme talent, and lots of it. For me a deal with the Blue Jays starts with Lawrie and escobar, includes Drabek and Marisnik, as well as their two top pitching prospects. If I am going to trade my MVP that is just reaching his prime, the deal better explode with talent. I don't want any part of Bautista, as suddenly as hit production rose I fear it will fall just as fast.

My moves would be as follows:

1. John Danks via trade. Would Alonso, Corcino, Sappelt get it done?

2. Sign Either Willingham or Beltran

3. Bank on improvement from Jay Bruce, Mike Leake, Hannigan/Mesoraco, Rolen/Fransisco, Chapman, Stubbs, etc.

With our limited payroll I really think that this is the best we could do. I would go to war with this group and save my other prospects for upgrades at the deadline if needed.

dMaus14
12-12-2011, 08:30 PM
Who would you include in the trade WITH Joey Votto to get that return of Brett Lawrie, Yunel Escobar, Kyle Drabek, Deck McGuire, Jake Marisnick and Asher Wojciechowski?

I mean the trade that we should look at for precedent would be Mark Teixeira to the Braves for:
Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Elvis Andrus
Matt Harrison
Beau Jones
Neftali Feliz

All of those except Salty were one year away from being ready. Your asking for 3 MLB ready players and 3 of their top prospects.

izzy's dad
12-12-2011, 08:43 PM
Who would you include in the trade WITH Joey Votto to get that return of Brett Lawrie, Yunel Escobar, Kyle Drabek, Deck McGuire, Jake Marisnick and Asher Wojciechowski?

I mean the trade that we should look at for precedent would be Mark Teixeira to the Braves for:
Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Elvis Andrus
Matt Harrison
Beau Jones
Neftali Feliz

All of those except Salty were one year away from being ready. Your asking for 3 MLB ready players and 3 of their top prospects.

I would start there and likely work my way toward an agreement. I want to keep Votto, but if I do move him I would have to be completely overwhelmed. A trade for Joey isn't what I outlined, but it starts with those players in the discussion. Obviously the Jays wouldn't go for the trade package I presented, but they would understand that it would take more than Escobar + to move my MVP. Escobar /Lawrie, Marisnick, McGuire, and a throw in lower level prospect might get it done, but I still think it is a bit light to get an MVP and Gold Glover in his prime. I don't disagree with you that I was asking for a bit much, but I don't think that I would take much less. I value Joey Votto more highly than what is realistic I guess.

dMaus14
12-13-2011, 11:06 AM
Personally I think SS/leadoff with a career 3.4 WAR with 4 years of control, a #2-3 power arm with an average of 3.5 WAR and 2 years of control and two high potential TOR arms is equal value for our MVP with 2 years of control and no guarantee he will re-sign. You can maybe add another bat since I added Homer Bailey in the deal but other than that I think that's pretty good value compared to Teixeira's return.

dMaus14
12-13-2011, 11:33 AM
Also you have to look at the biggest return from moving Votto - payroll flexibility in 2013 and beyond. We save about $2M in my transaction of Votto for the 2012 payroll. Let's say that payroll raises another $5M in 2013 which will bring us into around $90M. Well in 2013 Votto's salary almost doubles to $17M which consumes all of the $8M we save from Rolen coming off of payroll.

If you go by my trades we would have $45.25M (including league minimum salaries) on the books going to 12 players for 2013. You will lose three to FA if we don't re-sign them (Phillips, Rolen, Cairo). You will have eight Arbitration eligible players (ARB 1: Stubbs, Leake, Heisey, Ondrusek; ARB 2: Arredondo; ARB 3-4: Masset, Bray, Morrow).

I mean everyone wants to be players in free agency with this flexibility you can. And by looking at possible FA it looks like a good year to do it.

dcameron24
12-13-2011, 12:25 PM
I think if you're going to trade Votto then it should be at the 2013 Trade Deadline. Why not get as much production from him as you can before letting him go? Especially if we have a chance to compete in the next 2 years. You would also have the following large contracts coming off the books in the next two years:

2012 - Phillips - 12.25m (depending on extension)
2012 - Rolen - 6.5m
2013 - Arroyo - 6.5m (not including deferred money)
2013 - Votto - 17m

That's basically 19m in 2013 and 24m in 2014 that could be used to "lock up" our young players and/or players that would be acquired for Votto for the long term.

You can't ignore the Rays mentality when it comes to contracts/payroll... they've made the playoffs 3 of the last 4 years and the highest paid player on their team in 2012 will be James Shields at 7m...

dMaus14
12-13-2011, 12:47 PM
I think if you're going to trade Votto then it should be at the 2013 Trade Deadline. Why not get as much production from him as you can before letting him go? Especially if we have a chance to compete in the next 2 years. You would also have the following large contracts coming off the books in the next two years:

2012 - Phillips - 12.25m (depending on extension)
2012 - Rolen - 6.5m
2013 - Arroyo - 6.5m (not including deferred money)
2013 - Votto - 17m

That's basically 19m in 2013 and 24m in 2014 that could be used to "lock up" our young players and/or players that would be acquired for Votto for the long term.

You can't ignore the Rays mentality when it comes to contracts/payroll... they've made the playoffs 3 of the last 4 years and the highest paid player on their team in 2012 will be James Shields at 7m...

By waiting to the deadline in 2013 you drastically hurt his trade value. Again look at the Teixeira trades (From TX to ATL; ATL to LAA).

Trading to ATL with 1.5 years left on his contract he returned: Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Elvis Andrus, Matt Harrison, Beau Jones, Neftali Feliz

Trading from ATL at the deadline with months left on his contract he returned: Casey Kotchman and Steve Marek

That's quite a difference in returns. The Mets only got Zach Wheeler fromt he Giants for Carlos Beltran (I think the Giants overpaid and I know Beltran isn't what he used to be/ or Joey Votto).To me his greatest value is right now!

As for the payroll, all the money from Rolen is going into Votto's salary for 2013. They will re-sign Phillips so that leaves even less flexibility.

I agree with the Rays mentality. That's how you keep payroll down and make the playoffs. Even if they bust it doesn't cost you a great deal on payroll.

Ohayou
12-14-2011, 04:48 PM
In an Insider piece on ESPN Jim Bowden writes "Five big trades that should happen", included one involving the Reds. Bowden projects that the Reds send 1B Yonder Alonso and C Yasmani Grandal to the Reds for RHP Wade Davis and OF B.J. Upton. Davis could slid into the top of the Reds rotation, Upton the outfield and Alonso and Grandal could start for the Rays for years to come.

:thumbdown:

LegallyMinded
12-14-2011, 07:59 PM
Quote:
In an Insider piece on ESPN Jim Bowden writes "Five big trades that should happen", included one involving the Reds. Bowden projects that the Reds send 1B Yonder Alonso and C Yasmani Grandal to the Reds for RHP Wade Davis and OF B.J. Upton. Davis could slid into the top of the Reds rotation, Upton the outfield and Alonso and Grandal could start for the Rays for years to come.



:thumbdown:


Out of curiosity, what in particular don't you like about this deal? Admittedly, Wade Davis probably isn't a top of the rotation starter as Bowden seems to think, but BJ Upton would be a significant upgrade in Left Field. His K rate would bother a lot of Reds fans, but he has speed, power, decent defense, and is entering his prime.

The main problem seems to be that Upton is only under team control for one more year, so Grandal and Alonso could be a high price to pay for a single season of him. If he agreed to an extension as part of the trade, would you be more amenable to it?

dMaus14
12-14-2011, 08:46 PM
I know that I think Grandal is an untouchable for atleast this year to see if Mesoraco is that good but if I am giving up him and Alonso, I want a better pitcher than Wade Davis. I would rather give those two up for Pineda alone!