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Alpha Zero
01-05-2012, 09:10 PM
Per MLBTR:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/01/dave-duncan-stepping-down.html

Another blow to the Cards. They're still a strong squad, but this has been a tough off season for them.

alett12
01-06-2012, 11:25 AM
if you listen to the guys on club house confidential they are supposed to win more games this season with out albert, larussa, and now duncan due to WAR for signing beltran, bringing back berkman, and Wainright comming back.

brm7675
01-06-2012, 11:51 AM
if you listen to the guys on club house confidential they are supposed to win more games this season with out albert, larussa, and now duncan due to WAR for signing beltran, bringing back berkman, and Wainright comming back.

Interesting in that Player 1 hasn't played a complete season in how long, and is how old?

Player 2 is a year older and now while moving to first will be looked to carry this team with Albert now gone....

Player 3 is coming off TJ surgery and I don't care what they think, he won't be back to 100% top of the line performance right out of the gate....

alett12
01-06-2012, 02:32 PM
Interesting in that Player 1 hasn't played a complete season in how long, and is how old?

Player 2 is a year older and now while moving to first will be looked to carry this team with Albert now gone....

Player 3 is coming off TJ surgery and I don't care what they think, he won't be back to 100% top of the line performance right out of the gate....

I also forgot they are putting allen craig in that there too. I think they said he would be playing 2nd

Razzle
01-06-2012, 02:47 PM
Interesting in that Player 1 hasn't played a complete season in how long, and is how old?
He played a complete season last year.


Player 2 is a year older and now while moving to first will be looked to carry this team with Albert now gone....
Holliday will be the one looked at to carry the team and nobody in their right mind expects Berkman to repeat last year. However, an .850 OPS is not out of the question.


Player 3 is coming off TJ surgery and I don't care what they think, he won't be back to 100% top of the line performance right out of the gate....
He doesn't have to be a 6 WAR pitcher out of the gate to improve the club. Assuming he comes back as a 3 WAR pitcher that still dramatically improves the club from the Kyle McClellans that were in the rotation last year.


I'm not going to say there is no risk involved with this Cards team, though they look much better than I thought they would after they lost Pujols. With Furcal, Beltran, Wainwright, Freese, Berkman, and Carpenter we have some guys who are older and/or injury prone that we are heavily leaning on. With that said, I think the Cardinals have the highest ceiling of anyone in the division, but a higher variance than most teams due to age and risk of injury.

alett12
01-06-2012, 02:54 PM
He played a complete season last year.


Holliday will be the one looked at to carry the team and nobody in their right mind expects Berkman to repeat last year. However, an .850 OPS is not out of the question.


He doesn't have to be a 6 WAR pitcher out of the gate to improve the club. Assuming he comes back as a 3 WAR pitcher that still dramatically improves the club from the Kyle McClellans that were in the rotation last year.


I'm not going to say there is no risk involved with this Cards team, though they look much better than I thought they would after they lost Pujols. With Furcal, Beltran, Wainwright, Freese, Berkman, and Carpenter we have some guys who are older and/or injury prone that we are heavily leaning on. With that said, I think the Cardinals have the highest ceiling of anyone in the division, but a higher variance than most teams due to age and risk of injury.

All of those might be true, BUT Beltran's prescence in the lineup isn't anywhere close to that of Albert's. Personally i think it would drop 3-5 wins just taking out larussa and duncan no matter who they replace them with.

Alpha Zero
01-06-2012, 03:57 PM
All of those might be true, BUT Beltran's prescence in the lineup isn't anywhere close to that of Albert's. Personally i think it would drop 3-5 wins just taking out larussa and duncan no matter who they replace them with.

I'm not sure any manager or coach is worth anywhere close to five wins despite the fact that Dave Duncan is one heck of a pitching coach. At this point, I think the Cards are only slightly (maybe a win or two) weaker than they were last season. The Reds have improved by 4 or 5 wins with the addition of Latos. This basically puts the Reds and Cards neck and neck for 2012 if you look at the Pythagorean win expectancies of each team from last year. It should be a fun and competitive season.

Also on a more serious note, the MLBTR article was updated after I initially posted this thread. Duncan has taken an indefinite leave of absence to take care of his ailing wife. Best wishes to those two.

In any event, it's still entirely possible that Duncan will be back with Cards at some point this year depending on how his personal situation plays out.

OGB
01-06-2012, 04:04 PM
One thing is for certain, this is going to be very damaging to their organization going forward. I wouldn't expect the Cardinals to routinely bring in veteran pitchers who have career seasons anymore. It has been endlessly frustrating to watch the Jason Marquis, Jeff Suppans, and Kyle Lohses of the world far exceed their prior best after putting on a St Louis uniform.

Razzle
01-06-2012, 04:15 PM
One thing is for certain, this is going to be very damaging to their organization going forward. I wouldn't expect the Cardinals to routinely bring in veteran pitchers who have career seasons anymore. It has been endlessly frustrating to watch the Jason Marquis, Jeff Suppans, and Kyle Lohses of the world far exceed their prior best after putting on a St Louis uniform.

I think this will hurt no doubt, however I think the three names you mentioned can be pretty easily explained. Marquis has had years after those three in St. Louis that have been just as good as his years in St. Louis. Suppan was coming into his prime years and played in front of a tremendous defense for much of his three years in St. Louis. Kyle Lohse pitched in the AL and in two bandbox parks (Cincy and Philly) before coming to a pitcher friendly park in Busch. There is no doubt in my mind that Duncan has helped many pitchers, including these three, to an extent, but there are other reasons why pitchers have been good in St. Louis as well. I think the two pitchers I look at when I think of Dave Duncan helping someone are Chris Carpenter and Ryan Franklin.

Old NDN
01-07-2012, 01:28 PM
I don't think "stepping down" is quite the same as "leave of absence". I would expect Duncan to return at some point.

Alpha Zero
01-07-2012, 02:34 PM
I don't think "stepping down" is quite the same as "leave of absence". I would expect Duncan to return at some point.

As I alluded to earlier in the topic, the original story on MLBTR was titled "Dave Duncan Stepping Down" and gave no additional explanation. I created this thread at that point when that was the only information available. Since then, the story has been amended to clarify the fact that it is a temporary leave of absence. I thought I made this clear earlier in the topic, but I apologize if the thread title has caused any confusion for whatever reason.

Old NDN
01-07-2012, 03:29 PM
Sorry Alpha. I completely missed the last part of your post #7. Duncan will be sorely missed. However, they still have a heck of a veteran staff that will carry on in his absence. I think Oswalt ends up there, also.

Alpha Zero
01-07-2012, 04:00 PM
Sorry Alpha. I completely missed the last part of your post #7. Duncan will be sorely missed. However, they still have a heck of a veteran staff that will carry on in his absence. I think Oswalt ends up there, also.

I think if the Cards get Oswalt to replace Westbrook in their rotation, then the Reds will probably be in trouble. The Reds and Cards seem to be fairly well matched at the moment, so if either acquires another major upgrade, it could spell major problems for the other team.

alett12
01-09-2012, 11:19 AM
I really don't think the cards will do anywhere near as good as people think. The last few years were probably more albert and tony larussa than the rest of the team.

brad1176
01-09-2012, 02:58 PM
I really don't think the cards will do anywhere near as good as people think. The last few years were probably more albert and tony larussa than the rest of the team.

I agree, the Cards will be battling age as well. Several key players will be 35 or older.