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texasdave
01-18-2012, 01:15 PM
The Red Flag List

Pitcher, Team 2011 Age IP Increase
Derek Holland, Tex 24 222 +71 1/3*
Dylan Axelrod, CWS 25 169.1 +60
Jaime Garcia, St.L 24 220.1 +57
Liam Hendriks, Minn. 22 162.1 +54
Eric Surkamp, SF 23 175 +44*
Chris Schwinden, NYM 24 169.2 +43*
Yovani Gallardo, Mil. 25 226.1 +41 1/3*
Nathan Eovaldi, LAD 21 137.2 +39 1/3
Daniel Hudson, Ariz. 24 227.1 +38 2/3
Jeremy Hellickson, TB 24 193 +37 1/3
Mike Leake, Cin. 23 175 +36 2/3
Matt Harrison, Tex 25 204 +36 1/3*
Michael Pineda, Sea 22 171 +31 2/3
Zach Stewart, CWS 24 168 +31 2/3


Mike Leake, 23, Reds (+36 2/3). Reds GM Walt Jocketty targeted an increase of between 20 and 30 innings for Leake in 2010, but allowed him to slightly surpass that goal. Leake also made his minor-league debut this year, getting two tuneup games in Triple-A. Leake bears watching because he is not a prototypical workhorse. In two major league seasons, the 185-pound Leake is 14-5 in the first half and 6-8 in the second.

http://www.cnnsi.com/2012/writers/tom_verducci/01/18/year.after.effect/index.html?eref=sihp&sct=hp_t11_a2

One Brewer, one Cardinal and one Red on the list. Another starting pitcher acquisition still would be nice. Leake pitched well in the second half of 2011 so I would dismiss that concern. Leake just barely exceeded the 30-inning increase threshold. I think he will be fine.

LeDoux
01-18-2012, 02:20 PM
That is an interesting article. I would think the total IP AND IP would best predict problems. If I am right- Garcia, Gallardo, Holland, and Hudson should be double-flagged.

IamRV
01-18-2012, 04:42 PM
As the #5 starter Leake should barely threaten 190 this year unless he consistently goes 7+ per game.

Red in Atl
01-18-2012, 05:05 PM
As the #5 starter Leake should barely threaten 190 this year unless he consistently goes 7+ per game.

Exactly. Arroyo will be the number 3 guy.

Additionally, look to Chapman to be the guy come the 2nd half, after he finally realizes how to be a starter in the majors.

MilotheMayor
01-18-2012, 08:11 PM
Am I not the only one who's offended that Leake was tagged as being on a non-contending team?

texasdave
01-18-2012, 08:12 PM
Am I not the only one who's offended that Leake was tagged as being on a non-contending team?

I took it to mean that he was on a non-contending team in 2011.

alett12
01-19-2012, 11:32 AM
I see no problems. Leake was on fire when THE FRONT OFFICE AND DUSTY BAKER shut him down and he was PISSED about it and should be. I would be worried if he wasn't. He said he was feeling fine and i see no reason to go out and bring in a guy who will want some money like an oswalt just because of projections.

Razzle
01-19-2012, 04:24 PM
I'm not at all worried about Jaime Garcia in terms of detriments caused by last year's innings hike. The guy has been coddled in his career, and rightly so due to his injury history. There are valid concerns regarding Garcia, but I just don't feel like this is one of them.

Anyway, the verducci effect seems quite silly to me due to not all innings being remotely the same.

texasdave
01-19-2012, 04:42 PM
Good news for Leake and Latos.

From an article on Baseball Analysts. I am assuming that they mean third full season.


In general, 25-and-under pitchers improve their peripherals in their third year. Their strikeout rate trends up while their walk rate trends down. Gassko found similar results.

alett12
01-20-2012, 11:09 AM
I wouldn't be surprised to see leake have a year with a sub 4 era and go over 200 ip out of the 3 or 4 spot