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malcontent
01-18-2012, 03:06 PM
I don't see any Phoenix-like return to glory for Rolen.

I do, however, see Baker starting him (and batting him 4th or 6th) until he loses an arm or leg.

By then, of course, it could be too late.

Anyone want to bet this won't feel like the T-Virus and Patterson years all over? I'm referring to the OSM (Overt Sabotage by Manager) factor.

Who should be the starting 3B? Standard platoon situation? Or Tarot card platoon by Baker?

jhu1321
01-18-2012, 03:41 PM
Personally, I believe it is Fransisco's time to show what he's made of. I could easily see him putting up .260 / 25 / 80 which is more than Rolen is capable of. That being said, I like the idea of using Rolen in a 50/50 type platoon, especially against lefty's and "crafty" pitchers Fransisco will likely struggle against. Not to mention the intangibles of his leadership on a young team.

I don't believe Rolen can stay healthy enough to get that 50/50 split though. I'm more concerned about Bakers decision to use Cairo, Janish or Frazier over Fransisco WHEN Rolen goes on the DL.

R_Webb18
01-18-2012, 03:44 PM
i think rolen could have a decent year. not great but good. by the time the 1st game starts he will have had 8 months off.

Rich
01-18-2012, 03:55 PM
Curious....Would the Mets be willing to eat the majority of David Wrights salary to get out from under his contract. Wouldn't mind seeing David Wright at 3B for the Reds...I know he is injury prone but he is better than our options

Captain13
01-18-2012, 04:00 PM
I would love to see a true platoon with Francisco getting most of the ABs this year, but it will never happen. I believe the Tarot Platoon is most likely.

IamRV
01-18-2012, 04:04 PM
The numbers are plain. Francisco should be run out there against rightys the vast majority of the time while Rolen should be limited to facing leftys and rightys that Francisco has had trouble hitting. This would get a productive bat in the lineup against rightys which was a big problem for us the last couple of years and enhance Rolen's ability to stay healthy. He still would be a huge clubhouse influence along with being a veteran off the bench and late inning defense if needed.

Rolen's stats for only 2011:
Rolen 2011 AB AVG OBP SLG OPS
vs. Left 57 .246 .295 .474 .769
vs. Right 195 .241 .274 .374 .648
None On 130 .223 .246 .354 .600
Runners On 122 .262 .311 .443 .754
Scoring Position 63 .238 .320 .381 .701
Scoring Posn, 2 out 27 .222 .344 .370 .714

Rolen's stats for the last three years:
Rolen 2009-2011 AB AVG OBP SLG OPS
vs. Left 318 .299 .398 .506 .904
vs. Right 880 .278 .326 .442 .768
None On 638 .288 .349 .480 .829
Runners On 560 .279 .343 .436 .779
Scoring Position 340 .285 .364 .450 .814
Scoring Posn, 2 out 146 .260 .368 .438 .806

Francisco's last three years:
Francisco 2009-2011 AB AVG OBP SLG OPS
vs. Left 14 .143 .143 .143 .286
vs. Right 79 .278 .313 .506 .819
None On 48 .250 .294 .458 .752
Runners On 45 .267 .283 .444 .727
Scoring Position 24 .292 .320 .500 .820
Scoring Posn, 2 out 10 .500 .500 .900 1.400

I would love to see what Francisco could do in the #4 spot behind Votto and in front of Bruce/Ludwick/Heisey. I'm betting he would rake.

brm7675
01-18-2012, 04:07 PM
As long as Rolen is on the roster and healthy he is going to see the majority of starts. I see him playing 5-6 days a week with Juan getting the Sunday start and maybe the day game start after a night game from time to time. Rolen claims he feels better now then he has in years so unless he hurts himself in ST, Juan is destine to the bench.

brm7675
01-18-2012, 04:08 PM
Curious....Would the Mets be willing to eat the majority of David Wrights salary to get out from under his contract. Wouldn't mind seeing David Wright at 3B for the Reds...I know he is injury prone but he is better than our options

Why would the Reds trade for Wright when they have Rolen?

R_Webb18
01-18-2012, 04:12 PM
Why would the Reds trade for Wright when they have Rolen?

yea for some reason ppl don't understand. when you have a career and the amount of money he makes hes gonna play.

TuneSquad
01-18-2012, 04:17 PM
If i remember right, Dusty likes to play Fancisco in the 7th hole. I personally think with our lineup, thats where he belongs

Tadasimha
01-18-2012, 04:22 PM
By the end of the year it's going to be Francisco as Rolen will wear down. Hopefully it will be a 50/50 split to start the season and move into 70/30 in favor of Francisco and Rolen will be available in the playoffs off the bench to PH and maybe as a late inning sub.

malcontent
01-18-2012, 05:02 PM
The numbers are plain. Francisco should be run out there against rightys the vast majority of the time while Rolen should be limited to facing leftys and rightys that Francisco has had trouble hitting. This would get a productive bat in the lineup against rightys which was a big problem for us the last couple of years and enhance Rolen's ability to stay healthy. He still would be a huge clubhouse influence along with being a veteran off the bench and late inning defense if needed.

Rolen's stats for only 2011:
Rolen 2011 AB AVG OBP SLG OPS
vs. Left 57 .246 .295 .474 .769
vs. Right 195 .241 .274 .374 .648
None On 130 .223 .246 .354 .600
Runners On 122 .262 .311 .443 .754
Scoring Position 63 .238 .320 .381 .701
Scoring Posn, 2 out 27 .222 .344 .370 .714

Rolen's stats for the last three years:
Rolen 2009-2011 AB AVG OBP SLG OPS
vs. Left 318 .299 .398 .506 .904
vs. Right 880 .278 .326 .442 .768
None On 638 .288 .349 .480 .829
Runners On 560 .279 .343 .436 .779
Scoring Position 340 .285 .364 .450 .814
Scoring Posn, 2 out 146 .260 .368 .438 .806

Francisco's last three years:
Francisco 2009-2011 AB AVG OBP SLG OPS
vs. Left 14 .143 .143 .143 .286
vs. Right 79 .278 .313 .506 .819
None On 48 .250 .294 .458 .752
Runners On 45 .267 .283 .444 .727
Scoring Position 24 .292 .320 .500 .820
Scoring Posn, 2 out 10 .500 .500 .900 1.400

I would love to see what Francisco could do in the #4 spot behind Votto and in front of Bruce/Ludwick/Heisey. I'm betting he would rake.

Those stats are eye-openers. Particularly Rolen's 2011 numbers against RHP.

Given this year's heavily RHH lineup and last year's splits, I think we can expect to see another very heavy dose of RHP this year. And plugging Rolen in at 3B against RHP is clearly not the way to go.

LegallyMinded
01-18-2012, 08:07 PM
Those stats are eye-openers. Particularly Rolen's 2011 numbers against RHP.

Given this year's heavily RHH lineup and last year's splits, I think we can expect to see another very heavy dose of RHP this year. And plugging Rolen in at 3B against RHP is clearly not the way to go.

I'd be hesitant to judge Rolen's ability to hit RHs on less than 200 at-bats. Also, it's worth keeping in mind that last year, Rolen's BABIP was about .40 points below his career average. I'd love to see what Francisco can do when given significant playing time, but since I doubt that's going to happen, I think we should just be content with expecting a bit of a rebound from Rolen.

alett12
01-19-2012, 09:05 AM
My theory is if rolen is healthy he'll pretty muh be starting. I personally wouldn't mind during interleague giving him the DH spot but fransisco and Frazier need to be your back ups

Alpha Zero
01-19-2012, 09:46 AM
I think Rolen gets the majority of the starts, and I actually agree with that approach. Unless Francisco hits .330, he's not going to post an OBP higher than Rolen. It has been said a thousand times that this team needs OBP more than it needs power right now. Votto and Bruce have elite power and a handful of other guys will provide 15-20HRs. On the other hand, Votto is the only elite on base guy on this team and only a couple others are average at it. If Rolen can stay relatively healthy, I hope he's playing at least 4 or 5 times a week.

DGullett35
01-19-2012, 12:18 PM
Dusty will never put Francisco between Votto and bruce for the simple fact that it would put 3 lefty's hitting back to back to back. That's a Baker no-no.

IamRV
01-19-2012, 01:41 PM
Dusty will never put Francisco between Votto and bruce for the simple fact that it would put 3 lefty's hitting back to back to back. That's a Baker no-no.

While I agree that Duncey would never do that it makes absolutely no sense to me. If those leftys hit RHP at a substantial rate, demonstrably better than their RH counterpart on the roster, then why not bat them together in an attempt to maximize their effectiveness? They would face the RHSP at a minimum of two times and much more likely 3, possibly even 4 times - so he's not going to use that advantage just because they might face a LH reliever in the last half of the game?

If Francisco is sandwiched between Votto and Bruce and the opposition brings in a LHRP it won't affect Votto in that he's not coming out, then you just run Rolen up there in place of Juan and make the other manager pull his lefty or go against the percentages. Again our advantage in that it removes that LHRP from the rest of that game, therefore he won't be there to face Bruce OR our replacement batter faces a lefty where he has the 'statistical' advantage.

Just another example of the toothpick not being able to 'manage' a game intelligently.

jhu1321
01-19-2012, 02:03 PM
While I agree that Duncey would never do that it makes absolutely no sense to me. If those leftys hit RHP at a substantial rate, demonstrably better than their RH counterpart on the roster, then why not bat them together in an attempt to maximize their effectiveness? They would face the RHSP at a minimum of two times and much more likely 3, possibly even 4 times - so he's not going to use that advantage just because they might face a LH reliever in the last half of the game?

If Francisco is sandwiched between Votto and Bruce and the opposition brings in a LHRP it won't affect Votto in that he's not coming out, then you just run Rolen up there in place of Juan and make the other manager pull his lefty or go against the percentages. Again our advantage in that it removes that LHRP from the rest of that game, therefore he won't be there to face Bruce OR our replacement batter faces a lefty where he has the 'statistical' advantage.

Just another example of the toothpick not being able to 'manage' a game intelligently.

That red text is hard on the eyes! :eek:

Grouse
01-19-2012, 02:20 PM
Francisco's plate approach would have to improve much, before I would want him in a starting role. He and stubbs may have the worst plate disipline on the entire Reds roster. He swings at balls and looks at strikes. Just because he hits homers into the upper deck people think he is a some kind of great hitter. Every time I watch him bat it drives me crazy, the same way Adam Dunn did. After a healthy Rolen, I would rather have Cairo in there than Francisco untill I see improvment. Francisco's D is lackluster also. Its amazing what a few big homers will make people overlook. The homerun is the most overrated play in all of sports, because of the excitement factor.

IamRV
01-19-2012, 02:39 PM
Francisco's plate approach would have to improve much, before I would want him in a starting role. He and stubbs may have the worst plate disipline on the entire Reds roster. He swings at balls and looks at strikes. Just because he hits homers into the upper deck people think he is a some kind of great hitter. Every time I watch him bat it drives me crazy, the same way Adam Dunn did. After a healthy Rolen, I would rather have Cairo in there than Francisco untill I see improvment. Francisco's D is lackluster also. Its amazing what a few big homers will make people overlook. The homerun is the most overrated play in all of sports, because of the excitement factor.

You think it's home runs - really?


Scott Rolen AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB HBP SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
vs. Right 2011 195 23 47 13 2 3 27 8 2 31 1 0 .241 .274 .374 .648


Juan Francisco AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB HBP SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
vs. Right 2011 79 10 22 7 1 3 14 4 0 19 1 0 .278 .313 .506 .819


Scott Rolen AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB HBP SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
vs. Right 2009-2011 880 112 245 58 4 26 145 58 12 136 5 3 .278 .326 .442 .768


Juan Francisco AB R H 2B 3B [B] RBI BB HBP SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
vs. Right 2009-2011 143 17 43 11 1 27 11 0 40 1 1 [B].301 .351 .497 .848

Grouse
01-19-2012, 03:07 PM
What about Vs. Left. I wasn't really comparing him to Rolen anyhow, just to the game. You can put up all the numbers you want, he just don't pass the eye test with me at the plate, or in the field, and I watch alot of baseball. IMO He looks overmatched alot of the time. That being said, He is young and has alot of talent, this could be his year. I Hope.

brad1176
01-19-2012, 03:19 PM
I watch a lot of baseball too, and Francisco does not have good plate discipline. He seems to be guessing most of the time. It's always been the biggest knock on him. I really hope that he can get it turned around, but I doubt it with the swing he has.

WildcatFan
01-19-2012, 03:48 PM
If I had to guess, I'd say Francisco starts the year in AAA with Cairo getting two starts a week at 3B. I don't see Cairo relegated to backup 1B duty, particularly with the nice couple seasons he's had here. That being said, if Francisco comes out of the gate mashing in Louisville, I don't expect him to stay down long. Rolen may stay healthy, but his offensive production could take a serious hit this year between his time off and quickly waning power.

The biggest question for me is can Rolen succeed with his new, easy-on-the-shoulder swing and rack up a .360 OBP with 10-15 homeruns or so? I think he can get close to that, and if so, he's a perfect 2-hitter who carries the same Gold Glove he always has. If he can't, by all means let's see what Francisco can do.

alett12
01-20-2012, 08:21 AM
If I had to guess, I'd say Francisco starts the year in AAA with Cairo getting two starts a week at 3B. I don't see Cairo relegated to backup 1B duty, particularly with the nice couple seasons he's had here. That being said, if Francisco comes out of the gate mashing in Louisville, I don't expect him to stay down long. Rolen may stay healthy, but his offensive production could take a serious hit this year between his time off and quickly waning power.

The biggest question for me is can Rolen succeed with his new, easy-on-the-shoulder swing and rack up a .360 OBP with 10-15 homeruns or so? I think he can get close to that, and if so, he's a perfect 2-hitter who carries the same Gold Glove he always has. If he can't, by all means let's see what Francisco can do.
Personally I am sick of Cairo. He's just as done as rolen and honestly he's expendable due to Frazier.

WildcatFan
01-20-2012, 09:23 AM
Personally I am sick of Cairo. He's just as done as rolen and honestly he's expendable due to Frazier.

He's proven to be a perfectly good replacement at just about any position you put him in (besides shortstop, obviously). He was arguably the sixth or seventh best hitter on the team last season, and he can even be tossed into a corner outfield spot in a pinch. Those kinds of players are rare.

Right now, Cairo is a better and more versatile player than Frazier. Talk to me midseason though, and I'll eat those words if necessary.

dubc47834
01-20-2012, 10:40 AM
Francisco hasn't proven he can stay healthy either. It seams like everytime Rolen get's hurt and Francisco woulda got a shot, he is hurt also. I think Cairo is a must have until he proves other wise.

alett12
01-20-2012, 11:12 AM
Francisco hasn't proven he can stay healthy either. It seams like everytime Rolen get's hurt and Francisco woulda got a shot, he is hurt also. I think Cairo is a must have until he proves other wise.

Cairo isnt really a must have when Frazier is most comfortable at 3rd anyways and you also have janish to back him up at this point so I don't see where cairo is really needed

texasdave
01-20-2012, 11:34 AM
Cairo has proven himself very valuable off the bench the past two seasons. I don't know how but he has. Cairo has earned his spot on the bench.

malcontent
01-20-2012, 01:11 PM
I don't believe Rolen can stay healthy enough to get that 50/50 split though. I'm more concerned about Bakers decision to use Cairo, Janish or Frazier over Fransisco WHEN Rolen goes on the DL.
I agree that this is the danger, especially with Cairo.

I like Cairo as a utility guy and PH, but the Reds need to give Francisco a real shot at being the regular 3B, now and in the future.

WildcatFan
01-20-2012, 02:07 PM
I like Cairo as a utility guy and PH, but the Reds need to give Francisco a real shot at being the regular 3B, now and in the future.

The problem with your argument is that the Reds aren't playing for the future; they're playing to win right now. And you know what you're going to get from a healthy Rolen. You get GG defense, a high OBP, and 15-20 homeruns. You have no idea what you are going to get from a full season of Francisco. If Rolen is even close to his production just two years ago when he was mostly injury free, he's the best option they have, and it's not close.

Francisco isn't going anywhere; he's going to get his shot. This is the last year of Rolen's contract, and he's earned the right to prove he's still a very good third baseman. If he goes down or doesn't produce, by all means give Francisco a shot at it. But he will likely struggle big time for at least the first 300 PAs or so, as most rookies do, and as he has in his limited time the last couple years. That's a lot of on-the-job learning for a team hellbent on a pennant this year. The job is Rolen's to lose, no matter what you think Francisco's potential is as the third baseman of the future.

alett12
01-20-2012, 02:22 PM
Honestly Cairo is expendable with the likes of Valkia, Frazier, and janish on the bench

malcontent
01-20-2012, 02:51 PM
The problem with your argument is that the Reds aren't playing for the future; they're playing to win right now. And you know what you're going to get from a healthy Rolen. You get GG defense, a high OBP, and 15-20 homeruns. You have no idea what you are going to get from a full season of Francisco. If Rolen is even close to his production just two years ago when he was mostly injury free, he's the best option they have, and it's not close.

I'm not sure you get GG defense from Rolen at this point. When I've seen him, he looks like a statue in the field...no range and next to no flexibility.

Maybe the (last) surgery helps and he finds what he seems to have lost in the field and at the plate. I'd bet against that happening.

WildcatFan
01-20-2012, 03:04 PM
I'm not sure you get GG defense from Rolen at this point. When I've seen him, he looks like a statue in the field...no range and next to no flexibility.

Fangraphs had him at 18.9 UZR/150 last year. That's a Gold Glove 8 days a week.

TuneSquad
01-20-2012, 03:43 PM
First I think Wildcat is correct even though Rolen does sort of look like a statue out their. I think he makes up for it with his glove skills/hand-eye. Second, we all know how much the toothpick loves the old guys. There is no question in my mind that if Rolen is healthy he'll play 5-6 days a week. Finally, someone needs to make sure that Francisco is actually 24 and if Juan is actually his name! With all that stuff that happened with Carmona (not sure his real name), Im worried about our Dominican players :confused:

alett12
01-23-2012, 11:28 AM
I'm not to worried about Rolen as long as he is healthy, that is a good point about Fransisco though. Teams really do need to do back ground checks deeper on these dominican players.

nux fan
01-23-2012, 01:32 PM
rolen will NEVER be healthy, you might as well hope Gene Freese plays third

alett12
01-23-2012, 02:15 PM
Rolen is still the best option the reds have if he is 75% of what he was with st. louis

nux fan
01-23-2012, 11:18 PM
malarkey francisco is the man

alett12
01-24-2012, 11:31 AM
Here is an interesting idea. Billy Hamilton is should be a pretty good shortstop once he learns to make contact, so once rolen goes slide cozart to third, find a stop gap till Hamilton is absolutley ready and bang you fix two problems like that.

nux fan
01-25-2012, 02:07 AM
why dont you like francisco

alett12
01-25-2012, 11:25 AM
why dont you like francisco

Personaly, I think Fransisco is probably better suited for a LF role if Heisey fails to pan out. He's go the arm and I've seen him play it in Louisville a few times and a couple years ago in winter league plus in LF you don't have to worry about him pulling something when he gets a rocket shot hit at him like you would if he were at 3B since he does have a history of pulling muscles.

malcontent
05-09-2012, 12:57 PM
Let us take a moment to reflect on what (29 games into 2012) can bat no lower than 6th:

.182/.247/.318/.566

Now for the 2009 T-Virus:

.240/.275/.285/.559

bmwreds31
05-09-2012, 02:03 PM
why did you make another thread with the exact same title when you had this old one to bump. :confused:

malcontent
05-09-2012, 04:34 PM
why did you make another thread with the exact same title when you had this old one to bump. :confused:
Senior moment?

read favorite
05-12-2012, 01:53 AM
.174 for the lithopedian third baseman

malcontent
05-12-2012, 11:57 AM
Just saw this. Apologies if someone has already posted it.

"Reds third baseman Scott Rolen is batting only .188/.258/.325, and a rival scout says those numbers are real, pointing out that Rolen no longer can hit good fastballs and is cheating on pitches away.

The scout adds that Rolen’s sheer presence is still important to the Reds, calling him the team’s “unquestioned leader.” But Rolen, 37, already has been dropped from the cleanup spot to sixth, and would be the first to admit that leadership goes only so far when a player fails to perform."

I love the obligatory "(Rolen) would be the first to admit....."

Apparently, he hasn't admitted to himself that he's been toast for almost two years, and that his "sheer presence" is killing the team NOW.

But he knows that Baker won't move him down in the lineup, much less sit him, regardless.

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/sports/2012/05/08/rosenthal-column-dont-expect-rolen-to-improve/