View Full Version : A guy like Oswalt

01-25-2012, 03:48 PM
With Oswalt's apparent interest in the Reds (along with the Cardinals and Rangers), it got me thinking as to whether there's a tangible need for another starter in the rotation. Barring the unforeseen, Arroyo's not going anywhere, and neither is Bailey. The top three are locked in, it would seem. So, in the matter of a guy like Oswalt (who commands significant money), it would be a question of whether it's worth having (and paying for) six starters at the ready.

The issue, essentially, is available innings.

Last year, the five guys who are now penciled in as the 2012 starters pitched 849 innings (Arroyo 199, Latos 194, Leake 168, Cueto 156, Bailey 132). Those numbers are of course fluid, but provide a standard for consideration.

In all, Reds starting pitchers in 2011 worked 969 innings. Based on last year's totals, that would leave 120 innings for starting pitchers beyond the top five. Currently, Chapman would be in the mix for those.

However, that total of 969 ranked 8th in the National League. Obviously, the Reds, concentrating on pitching as they have, would prefer to be closer to the top in that category. The Phillies' starters led the league with 1,064 innings. The Diamondbacks were the only other team over 1,000 IP. A reasonable goal for the starters would seem to be around 1,050 innings, which would constitute in the neighborhood of 6.5 IP per game.

Again based on last year's totals for the five current starters, to get to 1,050 IP the Reds would require another 200 IP out of their rotation. In that respect, a case could clearly be made for another quality starter even if Chapman contributes this year as a starting pitcher.

I don't have the solution as to how to juggle six starters. Obviously, unless the club adopted a straight six-man rotation, which is unlikely, one starter would have to be either disabled, in the bullpen, or optioned to the minors at virtually all times. The particulars aren't easy.

But is there room, and a clear purpose, for a guy like Oswalt?

It would seem so.

But then, you knew that.

01-25-2012, 03:50 PM
I just mentioned the six man rotation idea on the other thread. I'd see no harm in it. Cuts your bullpen down to 6 guys though. Or you go without an extra bat. If a starter sucks or gets injured, you modify back to the usual 5-man rotation. If you go into long extra innings, you use the guy who is to start either the next day or the day after that, and then skip their start when it arrives.

Blitz Dorsey
01-25-2012, 04:04 PM
Yep, factoring injuries (inevitable) and a guy or two not performing up to par (inevitable) I have no doubt the Reds would have great use for Roy Oswalt. The question is whether B-Cast is willing to go above the budget to make it happen.

01-25-2012, 04:26 PM
The Reds have a number of guys that play both IF and OF now. Dusty would never go for a 6 man rotation though, and in fact, I have a hard time picturing Jocketty even toying with the idea.

But if you can imagine a discussion where Jocketty goes to Cast and says "You will make more money by cutting Arroyo and signing Oswalt..."

Well, that would be something.

Roy Tucker
01-25-2012, 04:38 PM
Maybe he wants to play in Cincinnati because he has such fond memories of the place. He beat the Reds like a drum for years.

01-25-2012, 04:42 PM
I'm sure he wants to play for a contender, add in the fact that he's a pretty quiet guy who doesn't care for the spotlight, you can see why he is preferring the teams he is.

01-25-2012, 09:58 PM
If the Reds miss out on Oswalt and the Cards pony up for him I will vomit. I was dry heaving when they got Beltran. My crystal ball is telling me that's what will happen, sadly.

01-25-2012, 11:26 PM
It's all about Arroyo, unfortunately. That signing is the Achilles heel here. With no Arroyo, Walt would have the money to sign Oswalt and Roy would be an upgrade.

01-26-2012, 09:11 AM
Latest On Roy Oswalt
By Ben Nicholson-Smith [January 25 at 10:35pm CST]
10:35pm: The Cardinals made a bid approaching $5MM on Oswalt weeks ago but that deal is not likely to happen, tweets Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Strauss predicts that the Rangers will win the bidding on Oswalt with $2-3MM more and other perks.

01-26-2012, 09:22 AM
exactly how much pitching do the Rangers need? And if they add Oswalt, I'd be happy if the Reds could pry Ogando away from them.