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View Full Version : Reds trade LHP Jeremy Horst to Phillies for infielder Wilson Valdez



OnBaseMachine
01-25-2012, 04:03 PM
#Reds acquire from Phi Wilson Valdez for Jeremy Horst, Nick Masset signs 2-year deal, IF/OF Willie Harris signs minor deal with ST invite.

https://twitter.com/#!/Reds

RedsManRick
01-25-2012, 04:06 PM
Interesting. Between him and Janish, we should have a solid bullpen. Err...

In all seriousness, I'm not sure I get that move. He's no better than Janish at the plate or in the field. Just depth?

lollipopcurve
01-25-2012, 04:06 PM
Great pickup IMO. I like Valdez a heckuva lot more than Janish, and Horst is easily replaceable.

mdccclxix
01-25-2012, 04:09 PM
Cool, there's no way we lose in 19 innings this year!

_Sir_Charles_
01-25-2012, 04:10 PM
Strange move. Valdez is a somewhat useful piece, but he's certainly not an upgrade over Janish.

2 year deal for Masset, that I like, depending upon the $'s.

OnBaseMachine
01-25-2012, 04:12 PM
Not a huge fan of the Valdez move. He's not really an upgrade over Janish.

Vottomatic
01-25-2012, 04:15 PM
It kind of depends on how much they have to pay Valdez, for me.

It also tells me they're not sold on Janish or maybe Janish is going to be traded. Did they agree on a contract, because I thought Janish was arbitration eligible?

reds44
01-25-2012, 04:18 PM
What are you going to trade Janish for? A six pack?

And they're probably not sold on Janish because he's really, really bad at baseball.

_Sir_Charles_
01-25-2012, 04:19 PM
Yeah, Janish is around 800 k or so. I don't recall the exact figure. Fay posted it though.

_Sir_Charles_
01-25-2012, 04:20 PM
What are you going to trade Janish for? A six pack?

And they're probably not sold on Janish because he's really, really bad at baseball.

And Wilson Valdez is what exactly? Bothered looking up HIS stats? They're far from awe-inspiring.

reds44
01-25-2012, 04:20 PM
Nevermind

Vottomatic
01-25-2012, 04:20 PM
http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=407832

Valdez turns 34 in May.

He and Janish bolster our bullpen in long games when we run out of pitchers. LOL.

lollipopcurve
01-25-2012, 04:21 PM
He's not really an upgrade over Janish.

I disagree. There's not a wide disparity between the two players, but I think Valdez is a better hitter and runner. He's good defender. And while I know this may not register with all observers, he plays with more energy. The guy knows his role -- I think Janish sees himself as a failed starter -- and as a Dominican he'll be a nice caddy for Francisco after this year (assuming Rolen retires). Valdez played for a winning club and did a nice job filling in for Rollins last year.

reds44
01-25-2012, 04:23 PM
And Wilson Valdez is what exactly? Bothered looking up HIS stats? They're far from awe-inspiring.
Valdez has at least posted three consecutive seasons of above .630 OPS (and before last year he posted back to back .660 OPS).

If Paul Janish ever OPSes north of .600 I'll be surprised. He's THAT bad.

_Sir_Charles_
01-25-2012, 04:23 PM
I'm not even close to a follower of WAR. But considering just how poorly Janish played last year (by FAR his worst season ever), he had a WAR or 0.0 in around 350 pa's. Wilson Valdez, 300 pa's last year.... -0.2.

reds44
01-25-2012, 04:24 PM
I can't believe Paul Janish still has supporters.

_Sir_Charles_
01-25-2012, 04:25 PM
Valdez has at least posted three consecutive seasons of above .630 OPS (and before last year he posted back to back .660 OPS).

If Paul Janish ever OPSes north of .600 I'll be surprised. He's THAT bad.

Okay, and 2 years ago Janish posted a .723 ops. And no, I'm not saying he'd do that again. But I am saying he's a much better defender than Valdez.

Personally, I would've preferred to keep the starter/long reliever depth of Horst in Louisville.

Reds/Flyers Fan
01-25-2012, 04:27 PM
I like this move. Even slight upgrades help the club.

The thought of Paul Janish getting meaningful at-bats this summer was disconcerting, to say the least.

Roy Tucker
01-25-2012, 04:37 PM
He's better than Ryan Theriot.

_Sir_Charles_
01-25-2012, 04:40 PM
Leatherpants via twitter....
Reds have concerns on Cozart's return from Tommy John surgery so Wilson Valdez gives them competition with Paul Janish if Cozart not ready

It IS Bowden...so take it for what it's worth. He's been known to talk out of his posterior from time to time. :O)

IslandRed
01-25-2012, 04:44 PM
Valdez isn't a great player or anything, and I didn't have him on the radar. But under the circumstances, he's the kind of "capable defensively, not the biggest out machine on the planet, knows his role" hedge that we're probably going to be glad we have at some point this season. I'm certainly okay with him having the bench role over Janish, with the latter playing every day in Louisville and being as ready as possible should he be needed.

Tom Servo
01-25-2012, 04:46 PM
Seems like a decent guy to have around, although I'm beginning to wonder how the Reds plan on fitting in these various bench guys.

batsfan
01-25-2012, 04:50 PM
I will ALWAYS remember Valdez for one of the worst at bats I ever saw. In 2009, Valdez was playing with the Columbus Clippers against the Louisville Bats, he was up with the tying run at third, the winning run at first, but only one out left in the game. He STRUCK OUT BUNTING to lose the game! I believe the explanation was that he saw the third baseman was way back, got excited, and forgot the situation, but Jim Kelch said it best "And Wilson Valdez has taken leave of his baseball senses!". Still, he should be a decent addition, and I wish Horst the best in Philly, as much as I hate that team, he was quite impressive with the Bats, and undervalued by the Reds.

pedro
01-25-2012, 04:51 PM
The Reds have depth (and let's be honest, quality) issues at SS.

This at least helps with the depth part of the equation.

cinreds21
01-25-2012, 04:51 PM
Apparently the Phillies were, for one reason or another, looking to trade Valdez.

Benihana
01-25-2012, 04:52 PM
Masset's deal is worth a guaranteed $5.5MM with some performance incentives.

_Sir_Charles_
01-25-2012, 04:53 PM
I'd say this move effectively pushes both Janish and Frazier to Louisville.

Cairo, Valdez, Francisco, Ludwick & Hanigan is your bench I'd think.

marcshoe
01-25-2012, 04:55 PM
I had thought that Valdez wasn't very good, so i looked up his numbers. I was overrating him. Can this guy even out hit Janish?

757690
01-25-2012, 04:57 PM
I'd say this move effectively pushes both Janish and Frazier to Louisville.

Cairo, Valdez, Francisco, Ludwick & Hanigan is your bench I'd think.

For opening day, assuming no injuries or other trades. Frazier, Janish and a few others will probably see plenty of time in Cincy over the course of 2012.

I'm also guessing Dusty wanted a veteran backup SS. He's never been comfortable with a young bench.

_Sir_Charles_
01-25-2012, 04:59 PM
I had thought that Valdez wasn't very good, so i looked up his numbers. I was overrating him. Can this guy even out hit Janish?

Probably, but not by much. I honestly think that in a limited role, Janish would hit better. Not the .727 ops from 2 years ago, but not the abysmal one he put up last season. The difference for me is defensively. Valdez isn't bad by any stretch of the imagination, but he's not as good as Paul with the glove. The fact that he can also play the outfield certainly gives him a big edge over Paul.

Now if there really are some concerns about Cozart's health, then this makes a ton of sense. If not, he's a slightly better bench option than Janish. But enough to lose Horst? I don't think so. Jeremy's been better than many realize IMO.

Larkin Fan
01-25-2012, 04:59 PM
I had thought that Valdez wasn't very good, so i looked up his numbers. I was overrating him. Can this guy even out hit Janish?

I thought it was clear that we didn't trade for him for his hitting ability. It was his pitching ability. ;)

REDREAD
01-25-2012, 05:01 PM
And Wilson Valdez is what exactly? Bothered looking up HIS stats? They're far from awe-inspiring.

Sadly, it's still an upgrade from Janish (with his 521 OPS and mediocre defense).
Janish is that bad.

There's also a thought that Janish may never recover phsycologically from the beating he took in the big leagues.

This move allows them to stash Janish at AAA for depth. Valdez makes the team as the backup SS.

Roy Tucker
01-25-2012, 05:08 PM
I thought it was clear that we didn't trade for him for his hitting ability. It was his pitching ability. ;)

Hey, Janish has a 90 mph heater, albeit very straight.

Vottomatic
01-25-2012, 05:10 PM
They're sending Janish to Louisville to learn 2 more pitches to add him to bullpen depth. ;)

Mario-Rijo
01-25-2012, 05:12 PM
As Pedro said it's a depth issue. And to make anything more out of it than that is a waste of time and effort. Time to move on to the next issue at hand, overall organizational depth especially in the OF and pitching.

Blitz Dorsey
01-25-2012, 05:18 PM
Valdez is definitely better than Janish. C'mon now people! The shocking thing is that the Reds even decided to re-sign Janish at $800K instead of letting him walk.

RedlegJake
01-25-2012, 05:21 PM
He's decent depth and gives the Reds another relatively inexpensive option at SS. No earth-shaking deal but not bad. He is basically a tick better than Janish with the bat while Janish is probably a tick better with the glove. Paul goes to AAA and has to force his way back to the big club which is a good thing. If he does good for him. If he can't well - good for the Reds having Valdez.

Kc61
01-25-2012, 05:35 PM
This is an experience move.

The Reds are going to be quite young in 2012. A pretty young team already will add Mesoraco, Francisco, Cozart.

My view is they like Valdez over Janish because he has more MLB time and more playoff and pennant race experience. Also may hit just a tad better than Paul.

My guessing has been off lately, I guessed that Masset would be traded. Instead he was re-signed for two years at $5.5 million.

But I'm now guessing Janish will be traded rather than stocked at AAA.

TRF
01-25-2012, 05:39 PM
Valdez has at least posted three consecutive seasons of above .630 OPS (and before last year he posted back to back .660 OPS).

If Paul Janish ever OPSes north of .600 I'll be surprised. He's THAT bad.

Paul Janish 2010 .260 .338 .385 .723 in about 200 AB's At age 27

Wilson Valdez 2007 .201 .245 .266 .511 in about 140 AB's at age 27

Yes, that is a .245 OBP.

really? we added the 33 year old version of a LESSER player than we had in hand?

TRF
01-25-2012, 05:41 PM
Valdez is definitely better than Janish. C'mon now people! The shocking thing is that the Reds even decided to re-sign Janish at $800K instead of letting him walk.

He's actually not better. He's not better defensively, and the bats are probably equal.

Which makes Janish the better player.

Janish isn't Barry Larkin, and we don't need him to be. He's not the starter. But getting Wilson Valdez is a waste of a roster spot.

Kc61
01-25-2012, 05:41 PM
Paul Janish 2010 .260 .338 .385 .723 in about 200 AB's At age 27

Wilson Valdez 2007 .201 .245 .266 .511 in about 140 AB's at age 27

Yes, that is a .245 OBP.

really? we added the 33 year old version of a LESSER player than we had in hand?

I guess if they were both still 27 you'd have a point.

camisadelgolf
01-25-2012, 05:44 PM
If Wilson Valdez is your everyday shortstop, your team is in trouble. Fortunately, it doesn't look like that's what's going on here. The Reds gave up a decent AAAA pitcher and got a serviceable infielder. Now I wonder who's getting booted from the 40-man roster.

TRF
01-25-2012, 05:48 PM
I guess if they were both still 27 you'd have a point.

I think my point was Valdez wasn't any good 6 years ago.

He's still not any good, but he's older, slower, and worse defensively, so he has that going for him.

TRF
01-25-2012, 05:48 PM
If Wilson Valdez is your everyday shortstop, your team is in trouble. Fortunately, it doesn't look like that's what's going on here. The Reds gave up a decent AAAA pitcher and got a serviceable infielder. Now I wonder who's getting booted from the 40-man roster.

Wasn't Horst on the 40? I thought he was up last year.

Blitz Dorsey
01-25-2012, 05:57 PM
He's actually not better. He's not better defensively, and the bats are probably equal.

Which makes Janish the better player.

Janish isn't Barry Larkin, and we don't need him to be. He's not the starter. But getting Wilson Valdez is a waste of a roster spot.

No, the bats are not "probably equal." Valdez is the better hitter. Not by a ton, but he's clearly better.

Janish is better defensively, I will give him that. But Valdez is no slouch defensively.

He's also going to give you around a .300 OBP, which is far better than anything Janish will produce. Not only is Janish a complete punch-and-Judy hitter, he hardly ever walks. So, his paltry batting average is roughly the same as his paltry OBP.

Again, no one is saying that Valdez is good. Only that he's better than Paul Janish. I'm sure Walt Jocketty agrees Valdez is better than Janish, or he wouldn't have made the move.

Caveat Emperor
01-25-2012, 06:06 PM
Horst wasn't going to contribute significantly this season, Valdez gives them a backup shortstop in case Cozart can't answer the bell at the start of the year.

Simple as that, IMO.

corkedbat
01-25-2012, 06:08 PM
As Pedro said it's a depth issue. And to make anything more out of it than that is a waste of time and effort. Time to move on to the next issue at hand, overall organizational depth especially in the OF and pitching.

If you're knee deep in muck, you don't pour on more muck, even if it does give you more depth. Unless of course, you just really like muck. :)

Don't really like or understand the move. Adds nothing substantial that wasn't already there. Probably has Janish in Louisville all season blocking someone more worthy. Maybe we can trade PJ to the Phils at the break for a LH reliever. Not complaining. Whatever Walt wants, but it's just a "Meh" move to me.

Caveat Emperor
01-25-2012, 06:15 PM
If you're knee deep in muck, you don't pour on more muck, even if it does give you more depth. Unless of course, you just really like muck. :)

Even still, you have to build a 25 man roster that includes a SS and a backup.

With Cozart still not 100%, they have to at least plan for a contingency that includes him starting the season on the DL.

Mario-Rijo
01-25-2012, 06:29 PM
Right now the 40 man is at 40 and Ludwick isn't on it. I presume Negron is the odd man out? And BTW we have only 2 catchers on it. And with Ludwick only 5 OF's.

_Sir_Charles_
01-25-2012, 06:33 PM
No, the bats are not "probably equal." Valdez is the better hitter. Not by a ton, but he's clearly better.

Janish is better defensively, I will give him that. But Valdez is no slouch defensively.

He's also going to give you around a .300 OBP, which is far better than anything Janish will produce. Not only is Janish a complete punch-and-Judy hitter, he hardly ever walks. So, his paltry batting average is roughly the same as his paltry OBP.

Again, no one is saying that Valdez is good. Only that he's better than Paul Janish. I'm sure Walt Jocketty agrees Valdez is better than Janish, or he wouldn't have made the move.

I would agree that Valdez is the better hitter right now, but the difference is VERY small. He's getting older and trending downwards. Janish can pretty much only improve from his bottoming out season of last year. Considering the small difference in the bats, I'd go with the better glove as the backup. I would've also kept Horst instead of dumping him for a slightly different version of Janish.

pedro
01-25-2012, 06:37 PM
If Paul Janish gets another 200 Major League ab's in a season I'll be floored. I've never seen a guy so "deer in the headlights" as he looked last year. I don't know what "it" is, but I know I've seen enough of Janish to know he's not the place to look. Stash him at AAA and hope no one gets hurt.

_Sir_Charles_
01-25-2012, 06:40 PM
Even still, you have to build a 25 man roster that includes a SS and a backup.

With Cozart still not 100%, they have to at least plan for a contingency that includes him starting the season on the DL.

2 things.

First, we don't know that Cozart isn't 100%. If he's not, then this move makes sense. I won't argue about it at all.

Second, why is it that we HAVE to have a dedicated SS backup? Why has that become automatic? We HAVE 3 guys with more team value who CAN cover the SS backup role if absolutely necessary. Phillips, Frazier and Cairo. Will they be GOOD at it? Doubtful. Will they be able to do it for a game without killing us? Highly probable. Will they be able to do it for part of a game if Cozart gets hurt? Highly probable. So where is the need? If our starter gets hurt and is going to go onto the disabled list, then where we need a capable full-time backup is at Louisville. Not on the roster "just in case". Janish filled that role already IMO.

Here's my biggest question...who would you guys rather have on the 25 man roster full-time? Frazier or Valdez? Which player would prove MORE VALUABLE over the course of the season (if you discount injury)?

marcshoe
01-25-2012, 06:44 PM
They're sending Janish to Louisville to learn 2 more pitches to add him to bullpen depth. ;)
No need; Valdez already has FOUR pitches! (http://mobile.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/5/26/2192300/the-amazing-pitches-of-the-phillies-19th-inning-pitcher-wilson-valdez)

Caveat Emperor
01-25-2012, 06:47 PM
Second, why is it that we HAVE to have a dedicated SS backup? Why has that become automatic? We HAVE 3 guys with more team value who CAN cover the SS backup role if absolutely necessary. Phillips, Frazier and Cairo. Will they be GOOD at it? Doubtful. Will they be able to do it for a game without killing us? Highly probable. Will they be able to do it for part of a game if Cozart gets hurt? Highly probable. So where is the need? If our starter gets hurt and is going to go onto the disabled list, then where we need a capable full-time backup is at Louisville. Not on the roster "just in case". Janish filled that role already IMO.

I think it's highly probable, after this deal, that Janish is the guy at AAA. And I'm very OK with that.

And come on -- not carrying a backup SS is silly. You aren't going to weaken your infield defense by moving Phillips off his gold glove position, and why throw Cairo or Frazier out there unless you absolutely have to?

pedro
01-25-2012, 06:51 PM
It's silly to expect that Cozart is going to play 162 games and you can bet the guys on the pitching staff aren't going be very happy if the their isn't a legitimate BU SS when Cozart needs a rest.

edabbs44
01-25-2012, 06:52 PM
Seriously, no one in their right mind should have an issue with the FO adding depth to the MI.

dougdirt
01-25-2012, 07:01 PM
Seriously, no one in their right mind should have an issue with the FO adding depth to the MI.

Is it ok to have a small issue with giving up talent for a mediocre upgrade over parts we already have in Janish and Valaika (if he is even an upgrade over Valaika that is)?

IslandRed
01-25-2012, 07:07 PM
If you're knee deep in muck, you don't pour on more muck, even if it does give you more depth. Unless of course, you just really like muck. :)

If you don't like Valdez, that's fine, but if so you're pretty much dumping on the entire population of backup middle infielders. The only difference between him and a lot of starting shortstops is about 25 OBP points. That matters, don't get me wrong, but not all levels of "not good enough to start" are equally lousy.


Probably has Janish in Louisville all season blocking someone more worthy.

There isn't any such prospect, at least not yet, and if there was, I doubt Janish would be in the way. I think the Reds have concluded Janish is an emergency glove and that's about it.


It's silly to expect that Cozart is going to play 162 games and you can bet the guys on the pitching staff aren't going be very happy if the their isn't a legitimate BU SS when Cozart needs a rest.

Yep. The job description involves both offense and defense. He's a split-the-difference guy between the all-bat and all-glove options we had, and over the course of the season that works better off the bench every day. And he can play the other infield positions as well.

lollipopcurve
01-25-2012, 07:14 PM
The job description involves both offense and defense. He's a split-the-difference guy between the all-bat and all-glove options we had, and over the course of the season that works better off the bench every day. And he can play the other infield positions as well.

Well put. Valdez is a clear upgrade IMO. And the team could use a little turnover on the bench too, after a lousy year.

_Sir_Charles_
01-25-2012, 07:26 PM
I think it's highly probable, after this deal, that Janish is the guy at AAA. And I'm very OK with that.

And come on -- not carrying a backup SS is silly. You aren't going to weaken your infield defense by moving Phillips off his gold glove position, and why throw Cairo or Frazier out there unless you absolutely have to?

I was completely okay with Janish at AAA before.

As for Cairo or Frazier covering short for one game here and there...here's what we dealt with for years, I don't see Frazier doing worse than these guys.

Felipe Lopez, Rich Aurilia, Juan Castro, Ray Olmedo, Royce Clayton, Enrique Cruz, Alex Gonzalez, Jeff Keppinger, Pedro Lopez, Jerry Hairston Jr., Danny Richar, Jolbert Cabrera, Adam Rosales, etc, etc, etc.

There are some pretty bad SS listed there. I think Frazier or Cairo can hold their own. Especially considering we're only talking about the occasional PT there. But personally, I'd rather let Phillips cover it for that odd game and then plug in Frazier/Cairo at 2nd where they're more comfortable.

Let me put it this way, NOBODY in the starting infield needs a defensive replacement. Period. So when the bench guys AREN'T getting that odd 2 or 3 starts a month, what are they going to be doing on the club? Pinch hitting. I just don't see the value of Janish or Valdez as PINCH HITTERS. Because that would be their main role on the club. Frazier brings much more to the table in that role and he won't KILL us defensively.

IslandRed
01-25-2012, 07:42 PM
I was completely okay with Janish at AAA before.

As for Cairo or Frazier covering short for one game here and there...here's what we dealt with for years, I don't see Frazier doing worse than these guys.

Felipe Lopez, Rich Aurilia, Juan Castro, Ray Olmedo, Royce Clayton, Enrique Cruz, Alex Gonzalez, Jeff Keppinger, Pedro Lopez, Jerry Hairston Jr., Danny Richar, Jolbert Cabrera, Adam Rosales, etc, etc, etc.

There are some pretty bad SS listed there.

Yeah, and it didn't work very well as a rule, which is why it's a better idea to have shortstops who can actually play shortstop. :p


I think Frazier or Cairo can hold their own. Especially considering we're only talking about the occasional PT there.

More PT than you'd think. Remember that we play in the double-switch league and it's most often the guys at the bottom of the order getting swapped out.


But personally, I'd rather let Phillips cover it for that odd game and then plug in Frazier/Cairo at 2nd where they're more comfortable.

Not me. It's the sort of thing that works in a video game better than in real life. Phillips is a cornerstone of the team. The 25th man complements the cornerstones, the cornerstones do not get jerked around for the sake of the 25th man. Especially to play a harder position that he last played on a regular basis seven years ago. Just a philosophical thing of mine, reasonable people can disagree.

dougdirt
01-25-2012, 07:46 PM
But personally, I'd rather let Phillips cover it for that odd game and then plug in Frazier/Cairo at 2nd where they're more comfortable.


Todd Frazier is the most uncomfortable second baseman I have ever seen. He is 100 times more comfortable at shortstop than at second base, and I am honestly not exaggerating. He simply couldn't figure out that side of the bag when he was tried there a few years ago. His footwork didn't work, his reactions were slow, he struggled going toward the bag.... just incredibly uncomfortable.

camisadelgolf
01-25-2012, 07:49 PM
Todd Frazier is the most uncomfortable second baseman I have ever seen. He is 100 times more comfortable at shortstop than at second base, and I am honestly not exaggerating. He simply couldn't figure out that side of the bag when he was tried there a few years ago. His footwork didn't work, his reactions were slow, he struggled going toward the bag.... just incredibly uncomfortable.
I watched Frazier play second, and I can vouch for that. I don't know if I'd say he is the worst I've seen at his level, but his footwork was nothing short of dreadful.

_Sir_Charles_
01-25-2012, 07:55 PM
Todd Frazier is the most uncomfortable second baseman I have ever seen. He is 100 times more comfortable at shortstop than at second base, and I am honestly not exaggerating. He simply couldn't figure out that side of the bag when he was tried there a few years ago. His footwork didn't work, his reactions were slow, he struggled going toward the bag.... just incredibly uncomfortable.

Yeah, I was going to reword that. Cairo is more comfortable there. I think Frazier is the much better fit to cover short. I shouldn't have grouped them together in that statement.

I saw Todd at second too. You're spot on. I like Todd for backing up LF, 3B, 1B and SS. Cairo for backing up 3B, 2B, 1B and in an emergency SS.

edabbs44
01-25-2012, 07:59 PM
Is it ok to have a small issue with giving up talent for a mediocre upgrade over parts we already have in Janish and Valaika (if he is even an upgrade over Valaika that is)?

I will give up easily replaceable parts like Horst for ML roster enhancements all day. It was only a few years ago when Walt added a fairly valuable piece like Valdez.

dougdirt
01-25-2012, 08:02 PM
I will give up easily replaceable parts like Horst for ML roster enhancements all day. It was only a few years ago when Walt added a fairly valuable piece like Valdez.

Wilson Valdez is now both fairly valuable AND not easily replaceable?

And honest question, is he truly an upgrade over Chris Valaika?

Patrick Bateman
01-25-2012, 08:08 PM
Does anyone realize that Horst was available to every team in baseball after the season? Nobody seemed to really care when we lost him the first time....

This was a nothing for nothing move. A reallocation of depth.

camisadelgolf
01-25-2012, 08:10 PM
Does anyone realize that Horst was available to every team in baseball after the season? Nobody seemed to really care when we lost him the first time....

This was a nothing for nothing move. A reallocation of depth.
Yup. Exactly. And that's why Phillies fans are annoyed. They're worried about the depth they have after Rollins. There must be something they like about Horst.

dougdirt
01-25-2012, 08:20 PM
Does anyone realize that Horst was available to every team in baseball after the season? Nobody seemed to really care when we lost him the first time....

This was a nothing for nothing move. A reallocation of depth.

And I thought it was silly when every team in baseball passed on Horst then too. I would think Horst has more value to a MLB bullpen than Wilson Valdez and his sub .300 OBP and inability to play shortstop does.

lollipopcurve
01-25-2012, 08:23 PM
Wilson Valdez and his sub .300 OBP and inability to play shortstop does.

Valdez is a solid SS with a plus arm.

reds44
01-25-2012, 08:24 PM
Paul Janish 2010 .260 .338 .385 .723 in about 200 AB's At age 27

Wilson Valdez 2007 .201 .245 .266 .511 in about 140 AB's at age 27

Yes, that is a .245 OBP.

really? we added the 33 year old version of a LESSER player than we had in hand?
And then they turned 28.

You literally just randomly picked out Valdez's worst year and Janish's best year.

dougdirt
01-25-2012, 08:29 PM
Valdez is a solid SS with a plus arm.

He is adequate I guess. Rather have Janish if we needed an every day guy though, without a second thought.

edabbs44
01-25-2012, 08:46 PM
Wilson Valdez is now both fairly valuable AND not easily replaceable?

And honest question, is he truly an upgrade over Chris Valaika?

No, he likely isn't An upgrade over Valaika. And he isn't valuable
Yet. But we could resurrect The multiple Cairo threads and see if they bear any resemblance.

Kc61
01-25-2012, 09:20 PM
He is adequate I guess. Rather have Janish if we needed an every day guy though, without a second thought.

Let's talk intangibles. I don't know Valdez at all, except mostly for his pitching performance in that long game.

But on the margins, isn't there some benefit to having a bench player who has been through pennant races and won playoff series?

I'm not suggesting that I'd replace Joey Votto with a guy known primarily for intangibles.

But I'd have to think that Valdez adds more to a ballclub than a Valaika or a Janish because of his experience on winning ballclubs.

I do believe that's how the Reds are thinking about this. It's not very sabermetric, and certainly you'd prefer a much more accomplished, talented player over a Valdez, Valaika, or Janish type.

But at the level of a backup shortstop, I think the experience, leadership, winning background factor means something.

Reds/Flyers Fan
01-25-2012, 09:35 PM
Is it ok to have a small issue with giving up talent for a mediocre upgrade over parts we already have in Janish and Valaika (if he is even an upgrade over Valaika that is)?

A mediocre upgrade remains an upgrade nonetheless.

This reminds me of the complaining over signing Miguel Cairo a couple of years ago. How has that turned out?

dougdirt
01-25-2012, 09:46 PM
A mediocre upgrade remains an upgrade nonetheless.

Maybe. Until we have to rely on Carlos Fisher in the bullpen instead of Jeremy Horst.

MartyFan
01-25-2012, 11:59 PM
Maybe. Until we have to rely on Carlos Fisher in the bullpen instead of Jeremy Horst.

Would the Francis signing impact this at all? Maybe he is a long reliever instead of a stater.?

mth123
01-26-2012, 12:13 AM
This move simply adds one more guy who can play SS for multiple days in a row should Cozart become unavailable. I don't see this as a Janish vs. Valdez move. Valdez gives them a 3rd option who can play SS on a daily basis at the beginning of the season. By mid-year maybe Negron rebounds and re-enters the picture or Gregorious takes enough of a step forward that they'll feel comfortable calling him up. The others aren't viable defensiviely for multiple days in a row without it taking a toll on the staff. I don't really have a problem with somebody like Frazier being the back-up on a spot basis or a game here or there, but if the situation requires a guy start two days in a row, I'd want at least an average defender to prevent the extra workload from piling up on the staff. This is a much better move than signing Theriot or bringing Renteria back for the same reason.

Horst had fallen pretty far down the depth chart with the signings of Clay Zavada and Ron Mahay. Add guys like Judy, Brackman, Fisher and Smith and its doubtful that Horst would have seen time in Cincy. I'm guessing part of the appeal for Philly is that he has already cleared waivers and the removal from the 40 man and can be left off of the 40 man there and stashed safely in AAA without risking exposure to waivers.

dougdirt
01-26-2012, 02:18 AM
Would the Francis signing impact this at all? Maybe he is a long reliever instead of a stater.?

To be honest, I really hope Jeff Francis doesn't pitch for the Reds. His stuff is incredibly underwhelming at this point. His fastball last year was 85 MPH on average.

mth123
01-26-2012, 02:19 AM
BTW, just for reference, Valdez has a .621 career OPS vs. Janish at .591. Janish has 975 PAs in his career or roughly 2 full seasons. The difference between Janish OPS and Valdez OPS is 14 singles. Over 2 full seasons, we're basically talking about 1 single per month making it through the infield. Lets not get any illusions that Valdez is some major improvement offensively over Janish. Hitting in front of the pitcher, 14 singles over 2 seasons probably doesn't even amount to more than 1 run per year on the scoreboard. It's not really enough to get excited about. It's questionable that its worth keeping him over Janish since, IMO, Janish is a better defender (but Valdez is fine at SS). Still, having two guys who could make the plays every day should Cozart go down is still better than only having one.

Ron Madden
01-26-2012, 04:40 AM
I'm not really happy about this move but it doesn't really bother me either.

I think I'd rather have Janish than Valdez and I'd rather have Valdez than Theriot but I aint gonna lose any sleep over it.

_Sir_Charles_
01-26-2012, 07:42 AM
BTW, just for reference, Valdez has a .621 career OPS vs. Janish at .591. Janish has 975 PAs in his career or roughly 2 full seasons. The difference between Janish OPS and Valdez OPS is 14 singles. Over 2 full seasons, we're basically talking about 1 single per month making it through the infield. Lets not get any illusions that Valdez is some major improvement offensively over Janish. Hitting in front of the pitcher, 14 singles over 2 seasons probably doesn't even amount to more than 1 run per year on the scoreboard. It's not really enough to get excited about. It's questionable that its worth keeping him over Janish since, IMO, Janish is a better defender (but Valdez is fine at SS). Still, having two guys who could make the plays every day should Cozart go down is still better than only having one.

EXCELLENT POST! Really put the hitting difference into perspective. Nice.

klw
01-26-2012, 08:39 AM
BTW, just for reference, Valdez has a .621 career OPS vs. Janish at .591. Janish has 975 PAs in his career or roughly 2 full seasons. The difference between Janish OPS and Valdez OPS is 14 singles. Over 2 full seasons, we're basically talking about 1 single per month making it through the infield. Lets not get any illusions that Valdez is some major improvement offensively over Janish. Hitting in front of the pitcher, 14 singles over 2 seasons probably doesn't even amount to more than 1 run per year on the scoreboard. It's not really enough to get excited about. It's questionable that its worth keeping him over Janish since, IMO, Janish is a better defender (but Valdez is fine at SS). Still, having two guys who could make the plays every day should Cozart go down is still better than only having one.

The difference between .250 and .300 - YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uBgGaGUnvA0)

TRF
01-26-2012, 09:19 AM
And then they turned 28.

You literally just randomly picked out Valdez's worst year and Janish's best year.

I picked Janish 3rd year, Valdez' second year. His third year didn't come until age 29. Want me to pick that one?

216 .263 .270 .533

Here is a simple truth. Valdez is a backup that has never had a single season as good as Janish 2010 season.

They are the SAME player, with Janish having a slight edge due to age.

Let me put it this way... Would you trade for Paul Janish?

dfs
01-26-2012, 09:24 AM
I can't believe Paul Janish still has supporters.

Why?

Out of the hundreds of folk on this board it's pretty easy to find folks who can squint at the outline of Ryan Ludwick's line and think "he'll bounce back" and support that signing.

As of last off season Paul Janish had done everything they asked him to do. Sure this last year, he cratered, but guys have come back from a bad season before.

Either of these guys can fill in the role of backup ss. It's a matter now of which Dusty prefers. If either one of them gets 400 at bats, the season is not going well.

IslandRed
01-26-2012, 10:03 AM
Let me put it this way... Would you trade for Paul Janish?

If all we had a week ago was Cozart, Valdez and miles of bad road before getting to the next guy who could play major-league-quality shortstop, I'd have been okay with bringing someone in. What mth said was on the mark. It's a long season and Cozart is no sure thing. Depth matters.

RedLegsToday
01-26-2012, 10:05 AM
To be honest, I really hope Jeff Francis doesn't pitch for the Reds. His stuff is incredibly underwhelming at this point. His fastball last year was 85 MPH on average.


I'm not saying Jeff Francis was good last year or anything, but, his 85 ERA+ was better than the following Reds starters from last year: Arroyo, 77, #($*%*#&! Volquez, 68, Travis Wood, 81, Dontrelle, 78.
Francis would have comfortably been the Reds 3rd-4th best starter last year, and he was able to go 30 starts. There's certainly value in getting him on a minor league deal. He also was at one time something Homer Bailey has never been, a good major league starting pitcher. Who knows, maybe he gets some of that back the farther removed he gets from surgery.

dougdirt
01-26-2012, 10:14 AM
I'm not saying Jeff Francis was good last year or anything, but, his 85 ERA+ was better than the following Reds starters from last year: Arroyo, 77, #($*%*#&! Volquez, 68, Travis Wood, 81, Dontrelle, 78.
Francis would have comfortably been the Reds 3rd-4th best starter last year, and he was able to go 30 starts. There's certainly value in getting him on a minor league deal. He also was at one time something Homer Bailey has never been, a good major league starting pitcher. Who knows, maybe he gets some of that back the farther removed he gets from surgery.

I don't know how he did it, but he magically did it. Opposing batters hit .301/.337/.457 (That is Brandon Phillips with a few less walks) off of him last year and he was successful (according to WAR) . Something tells me that if he lets guys hit .301 and slug .457 off of him again that he won't have nearly the same success.

Guys killed his fastball last year (no surprise, it can't break glass) and his curveball was only slightly above average while his change up was slightly below average.

I don't trust guys with his profile. His stuff isn't likely to just start getting better. He is 300 innings removed from his surgery and his stuff has actually gotten slower (by 2.5 MPH from '10 to '11 with his fastball, change up down 3 MPH and curveball down 4.6 MPH).

And what does Homer Bailey have to do with Jeff Francis?

REDREAD
01-26-2012, 10:21 AM
Is it ok to have a small issue with giving up talent for a mediocre upgrade over parts we already have in Janish and Valaika (if he is even an upgrade over Valaika that is)?

The talent Horst has is neglegible. He's pretty much the definition of a replacement level reliever. The Reds have no room for him in the short term future. The Reds recently signed depth for AAA, so there's really no problem with letting Horst go.

On the other hand, adding someone that can play SS is worthwhile.
Janish is horrid. Valdez isn't great, but is an upgrade. Cozart showed promise, but he's still an unknown.

Any move that makes it less likely for Janish to be on the ML roster is a good one.

REDREAD
01-26-2012, 10:24 AM
Wilson Valdez is now both fairly valuable AND not easily replaceable?

And honest question, is he truly an upgrade over Chris Valaika?

Yes, he is an upgrade over Valiaka.

REDREAD
01-26-2012, 10:28 AM
BTW, just for reference, Valdez has a .621 career OPS vs. Janish at .591. Janish has 975 PAs in his career or roughly 2 full seasons. .

Janish's career OPS is misleading, due to the career year he had in 2010.
I think the true Janish is what we saw last year.. Totally hapless.
The league has figured him out. Janish is like having a second pitcher in the lineup.

dougdirt
01-26-2012, 10:30 AM
Yes, he is an upgrade over Valiaka.

I have to ask now, how?

I don't think Valaika is much of a hitter, but he is better than Wilson Valdez is. Valaika can play every position that Valdez can. He might not be quite as good at shortstop as Valdez is. At best, I would say they are a wash. At worst, Valaika is clearly better.

dougdirt
01-26-2012, 10:30 AM
Janish's career OPS is misleading, due to the career year he had in 2010.
I think the true Janish is what we saw last year.. Totally hapless.
The league has figured him out. Janish is like having a second pitcher in the lineup.

To be fair, Valdez is also like having a second pitcher in the line up. Have you truly taken a look at his numbers?

TRF
01-26-2012, 10:46 AM
The talent Horst has is neglegible. He's pretty much the definition of a replacement level reliever. The Reds have no room for him in the short term future. The Reds recently signed depth for AAA, so there's really no problem with letting Horst go.

On the other hand, adding someone that can play SS is worthwhile.
Janish is horrid. Valdez isn't great, but is an upgrade. Cozart showed promise, but he's still an unknown.

Any move that makes it less likely for Janish to be on the ML roster is a good one.


Yes, he is an upgrade over Valiaka.

Prove it. Prove he is better. Prove the 2011 Janish is the real Janish and not the 2010 Janish. Prove a 34 year old UT that was NEVER any good is better than Janish, Valaika and Negron.

Say Janish gets 200 AB's next year and posts withing 20 points either way of his 2010 numbers. Is Valdez better still?

I will never understand why a team that is filled with veterans like Rolen, Votto, Ludwick and Phillips NEEDS a veteran presence like Valdez.

Horst had value. He had an 8.5 K/9 in the minors. He's left handed. And while the Reds have a few LH's on staff, Marshall will likely bolt after this year, looking for a closer gig and a big payday. Madsen is signed for one year. Horst could have moved into Bray's role if he or Massett end up as the 8th-9th inning guys.

Simply put, Horst has value.

Valdez is just another mouth to feed at ST.

Kc61
01-26-2012, 10:53 AM
To be honest, I really hope Jeff Francis doesn't pitch for the Reds. His stuff is incredibly underwhelming at this point. His fastball last year was 85 MPH on average.

The Reds did a great job with Dontrelle last year. Unlike most teams who had failed with Willis, the Reds gave him extended AAA time to get back on track.

Ultimately, it didn't pan out at the major league level, although Dontrelle did have some decent stints.

I think the idea is to do the same with Francis. He was injured in 2009. He hasn't come all the way back.

I expect Francis to pitch in Louisville for two months. Then we'll see what we have. Hopefully the injury plague won't strike and he can stay down there.

The guy has a decent profile for the Reds' stadium. He doesn't throw homers. He doesn't give up many walks.

I agree that I wouldn't want Francis starting with the Reds immediately. But as a depth guy, and someone trying to regain his velocity at AAA, I like the signing very much.

lollipopcurve
01-26-2012, 10:53 AM
Simply put, Horst has value.

He was available in the Rule V this year. No one saw the value.

klw
01-26-2012, 11:17 AM
Valdez is just another mouth to feed at ST.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/valdewi01.shtml
He is listed at 5'7 170 so at least he shouldn't be that big of an eater.

_Sir_Charles_
01-26-2012, 11:33 AM
Janish's career OPS is misleading, due to the career year he had in 2010.
I think the true Janish is what we saw last year.. Totally hapless.
The league has figured him out. Janish is like having a second pitcher in the lineup.

But then again, maybe in a more limited role, he's closer to those 2010 numbers.

RedLegsToday
01-26-2012, 12:21 PM
And what does Homer Bailey have to do with Jeff Francis?


Actually, nothing really. A lot of people seem to be relying on Homer to step up and be an above average starter. Last year was the best ERA and ERA+ of his career, and he still wasn't really any better (By those measures) than Jeff Francis was last year.

Of course, I have sort of given up on Homer, and usually once I give up on a guy, he goes off and becomes a star, so, there's that. :-)

RedLegsToday
01-26-2012, 12:23 PM
I guess the main point is that things can go to hell in a hurry in the rotation and having Jeff Francis around is better than not having him around.

pedro
01-26-2012, 12:29 PM
Prove it. Prove he is better. Prove the 2011 Janish is the real Janish and not the 2010 Janish. Prove a 34 year old UT that was NEVER any good is better than Janish, Valaika and Negron.

Say Janish gets 200 AB's next year and posts withing 20 points either way of his 2010 numbers. Is Valdez better still?

I will never understand why a team that is filled with veterans like Rolen, Votto, Ludwick and Phillips NEEDS a veteran presence like Valdez.

Horst had value. He had an 8.5 K/9 in the minors. He's left handed. And while the Reds have a few LH's on staff, Marshall will likely bolt after this year, looking for a closer gig and a big payday. Madsen is signed for one year. Horst could have moved into Bray's role if he or Massett end up as the 8th-9th inning guys.

Simply put, Horst has value.

Valdez is just another mouth to feed at ST.


Are we watching the same Paul Janish?

I have the MLB package. I watched a lot of Reds games last year (and for the past several years) and not only is Paul Janish perhaps the worst MLB hitter I have seen in the last 20 years, he's really not all that great at SS. He's solid, but he's not a gold glover IMO.

Kc61
01-26-2012, 12:35 PM
I will never understand why a team that is filled with veterans like Rolen, Votto, Ludwick and Phillips NEEDS a veteran presence like Valdez.

.

Because your shortstop is a rookie. Hope that helps.

REDREAD
01-26-2012, 12:37 PM
Prove it. Prove he is better. Prove the 2011 Janish is the real Janish and not the 2010 Janish. Prove a 34 year old UT that was NEVER any good is better than Janish, Valaika and Negron.


It's an opinion.. Look, I have never asked you or Doug to prove that Valaika >
Valdez. But is Valaika even a legitimate SS? Not really sure he is.

I think a lot of people on this board want to see the minor leaguers promoted and succeeding. They become emotionally attached to the prospects, even when they are no longer prospects (Janish).

The Reds needed a legitimate backup SS. Valaika, Fraser, etc..that's just not going to cut it. Janish is so awful, it's best to not count on him. Janish was one of the millstones that sunk this team last year. Even if you think Janish > Valdez, there's nothing wrong with adding depth.




Simply put, Horst has value.


This reminds me of the Danny Dorn discussions. There was a point last year when any team could've claimed Horst if they were willing to give up a 40 man roster spot to do it. Everyone passed. That seems the definition of a replacement player to me. Horst got some time up here last year, the Reds were obviously not impressed. The Reds have signed 4 relievers this offseason purely as depth guys (Brackman, Judy, and 2 others). Horst is not needed.

Patrick Bateman
01-26-2012, 12:43 PM
Just throwing out there that Matt Maloney had a significantly higher K rate in AAA than Horst did.... as a starter.

Let's not act like Horst is some high stuff, young gun.

He's 26, he was passed over by every team in the majors. He has a chance to be a middle reliever some day, and he probably isn't a decent one quite yet.

The Reds felt like they needed some replacement level type of depth at SS. They gave up a redundant piece passed over by every team to get one.

Really, I just don't see the emotion on this one.

TRF
01-26-2012, 12:51 PM
This reminds me of the Danny Dorn discussions. There was a point last year when any team could've claimed Horst if they were willing to give up a 40 man roster spot to do it. Everyone passed. That seems the definition of a replacement player to me. Horst got some time up here last year, the Reds were obviously not impressed. The Reds have signed 4 relievers this offseason purely as depth guys (Brackman, Judy, and 2 others). Horst is not needed.

My all time favorite argument. The same could be said for Nelson Cruz at one time too. And nobody took him.

I'll agree that Horst might not be needed. I don't think Valdez is either. I don't think his veteranness is necessary as he has a total of 1032 PA's in six years. that's a lot of sitting.

Janish has 975 PA's, has more innings in the field, is younger and a better defender. The bat is probably a wash.

I'm not against getting players. I'm against getting what you already have, paying more for what you already have.

pedro, I saw Janish last year too. awful. I saw something else in 2010. Completely different hitter. I have no idea why, but I suspect Janish isn't mentally up to being "The Man" at SS. I think he might be a very good backup though.

traderumor
01-26-2012, 01:22 PM
My all time favorite argument. The same could be said for Nelson Cruz at one time too. And nobody took him.

I'll agree that Horst might not be needed. I don't think Valdez is either. I don't think his veteranness is necessary as he has a total of 1032 PA's in six years. that's a lot of sitting.

Janish has 975 PA's, has more innings in the field, is younger and a better defender. The bat is probably a wash.

I'm not against getting players. I'm against getting what you already have, paying more for what you already have.

pedro, I saw Janish last year too. awful. I saw something else in 2010. Completely different hitter. I have no idea why, but I suspect Janish isn't mentally up to being "The Man" at SS. I think he might be a very good backup though.Your argument is one of my favorites, using an exception to try to disprove a norm. What about Johan Santana, Rule 5, so we should never identify a replacement player because they might turn out to be Nelson Cruz or Johan Santana.

RANDY IN INDY
01-26-2012, 02:01 PM
I saw something else in 2010. Completely different hitter. I have no idea why, but I suspect Janish isn't mentally up to being "The Man" at SS. I think he might be a very good backup though.

Maybe what you saw was the league finding a major weakness in his swing or approach, exploiting it, and Janish not being able to make the necessary adjustment. The big leagues are a tough place to exist and that very thing has been the demise of many a player.

_Sir_Charles_
01-26-2012, 02:06 PM
It's all speculation at this point. But I'll take the opinion of his manager over the arm-chair GM's here. Dusty thought he was worn down and that's why his numbers nose-dived.

PuffyPig
01-26-2012, 02:06 PM
Your argument is one of my favorites, using an exception to try to disprove a norm.

I was thinking the exact same thing, but didn't quite know how to express it.

You did an adrmirable job of doing just that.

TRF
01-26-2012, 02:33 PM
Your argument is one of my favorites, using an exception to try to disprove a norm. What about Johan Santana, Rule 5, so we should never identify a replacement player because they might turn out to be Nelson Cruz or Johan Santana.

What I think is sometimes 62nd round picks become Mike Piazza.

Sometimes 1st round picks become Reggie Taylor.

And sometimes when guys just keep producing, they turn into Nelson Cruz, or even Ryan Ludwick.

And I am not saying Paul Janish is any of those guys. I'm saying he's younger than Valdez, a better defender, possibly a better bat and makes acquiring him with anything other than money a waste of resources. The reds should trade talent to get talent, not to acquire replacement players.

lollipopcurve
01-26-2012, 02:41 PM
I'm saying he's younger than Valdez

Doesn't make him better.


a better defender

Debatable. Valdez has more experience playing multiple positions, which makes him better suited to the utility infield role.


possibly a better bat

Probably not. Jocketty seems to like Valdez better as a hitter. I'll take that.

TRF
01-26-2012, 03:02 PM
Debatable. Valdez has more experience playing multiple positions, which makes him better suited to the utility infield role.



Probably not. Jocketty seems to like Valdez better as a hitter. I'll take that.

It might be debatable, but the number of innings Valdez has at other positions, 3B, 2B is relatively negligible. I did get some thing wrong though. Valdez actually has 2399 innings to Janish's 2155.

Valdez is a 2B that can play SS.
Janish is a SS that can play 2B.

As for Jocketty liking him as a hitter, I hate to say this, but so what? He liked Gomes, Taveras, and Cairo too.

REDREAD
01-26-2012, 03:10 PM
My all time favorite argument. The same could be said for Nelson Cruz at one time too. And nobody took him.

I'll agree that Horst might not be needed. I don't think Valdez is either. I don't think his veteranness is necessary as he has a total of 1032 PA's in six years. that's a lot of sitting.
.

Which is more valuable, a 3rd SS for depth or Jermemy Horst?

If Cozart or Janish gets hurt, we're going to be very thankful to have that depth. This is not unlike the signing of Naivarro.. It's depth.

IMO, Valdez is better as Janish, but even if you think Janish is better, having a 3rd SS in this organization makes a lot of sense.

I don't think anyone is expecting Valdez to be a leader like Rolen was.

TRF
01-26-2012, 03:21 PM
If Marshall or Bray gets hurt which is more valuable?

Not a ton of LH bullpen options, and Chapman should not pitch in the pen until or unless the starter conversion is deemed a bust.

Valaika, Negron, et al. can fill in a few days defensively. You can hide a bat for a short period of time.

Patrick Bateman
01-26-2012, 03:32 PM
I don't know Ron Mahay can probably get lefties out at the major league level just as well as Horst.

Again, it's not like Horst projects to be that good. I just don't get why it is asusmed that he would add any more value to the major league club than a replacement level SS would.

camisadelgolf
01-26-2012, 03:55 PM
I don't know Ron Mahay can probably get lefties out at the major league level just as well as Horst.

Again, it's not like Horst projects to be that good. I just don't get why it is asusmed that he would add any more value to the major league club than a replacement level SS would.
There are plenty of availale available players that can pitch about as well as Horst. The only reason he is attractive to a team is that he is young with options left. If Horst isn't added to the 40-man roster and kept there by the end of the year, he can become a free agent. It was a fair deal for both sides, and like someone already said, it was merely a matter of switching where the depth in the organization is. Seeing as how the Reds already have Billy Bray, Aroldis Chapman, Jeff Francis, Clayton Tanner, Ron Mahay, Travis Webb, Donnie Joseph, Chris Manno, etc., I'm not too worried about losing Horst.

TRF
01-26-2012, 04:03 PM
Well, I disagree. clearly.

IMO, fielding a ball is easier than getting major league hitters out. You can hide a bat for a few days, ease a hitter into things. Having Donnie Joseph come up to face CarGo or Ryan Howard in the 8th inning is another matter entirely. Horst has major league experience, he was cheap, and in the minors at least had the ability to get a strikeout. I think with a year under his belt he'll be better.

And it isn't that i really care that he's gone, just that he was traded for a big bag of meh.

CesarGeronimo
01-26-2012, 07:15 PM
Which is more valuable, a 3rd SS for depth or Jermemy Horst?

If Cozart or Janish gets hurt, we're going to be very thankful to have that depth.



Or if Cozart is still recovering from Tommy John surgery and isn't ready to play. With this deal, Bowden's report certainly seems possible to me. The important news with this, I think, isn't so much that the Reds traded for Valdez, but that Cozart may not be ready at the start of the season.

CesarGeronimo
01-26-2012, 07:49 PM
If you're knee deep in muck, you don't pour on more muck, even if it does give you more depth. Unless of course, you just really like muck. :)


I hear ya. I wondered if anybody else remembered it was the Wilson Valdez that spilled all that oil in Alaska. :alcohol:

RedlegJake
01-26-2012, 08:08 PM
A lot of pages and angst over a trade of an easily replaced bullpen arm for an easily replaced infield backup meant to shift a bit of perceived oversupply in the pen to shore up a perceived undersupply in the MI. No great shakes meant by the trade, no implications or attempt to nab a great player by either organization. Pretty sure both teams saw what they were getting - replacement level guys they hope not to have to use often but in a long season, well, maybe they better have someone stashed against bad times. The Reds are close with Francis, they have Donnie Joseph and Mahay, and none of them are considered part of the regular pen so Horst was extra parts. At SS, behind Janish they have Valaika maybe who can play SS, some doubt he can do it proficiently, then Kris Negron with zero experience and not too great minor league numbers. So you send a spare reliever not in your regular pen for a spare MI to make things look a bit depper. And Redszone goes 8 pages and still going....I am really surprised the Latos deal didn't hit 12,000,000 pages.

traderumor
01-26-2012, 10:23 PM
What I think is sometimes 62nd round picks become Mike Piazza.

Sometimes 1st round picks become Reggie Taylor.

And sometimes when guys just keep producing, they turn into Nelson Cruz, or even Ryan Ludwick.

And I am not saying Paul Janish is any of those guys. I'm saying he's younger than Valdez, a better defender, possibly a better bat and makes acquiring him with anything other than money a waste of resources. The reds should trade talent to get talent, not to acquire replacement players.Begging the question on all fronts.

The Reds wanted a backup IFer and traded a generic minor league relief pitcher that was not very high on their list, apparently.

And why wouldn't that be a waste of cash if you think Valdez is junk?

And I still haven't figured out how any of that relates to pointing out that sometimes guys come out of nowhere and are stars.

edabbs44
01-26-2012, 10:37 PM
It might be debatable, but the number of innings Valdez has at other positions, 3B, 2B is relatively negligible. I did get some thing wrong though. Valdez actually has 2399 innings to Janish's 2155.

Valdez is a 2B that can play SS.
Janish is a SS that can play 2B.

As for Jocketty liking him as a hitter, I hate to say this, but so what? He liked Gomes, Taveras, and Cairo too.

Gomes put up close to an .800 OPS as a Red. Cairo has been nothing but a plus for this team. Not sure what the argument is with those 2.

mth123
01-27-2012, 03:58 AM
My all time favorite argument. The same could be said for Nelson Cruz at one time too. And nobody took him.

I'll agree that Horst might not be needed. I don't think Valdez is either. I don't think his veteranness is necessary as he has a total of 1032 PA's in six years. that's a lot of sitting.

Janish has 975 PA's, has more innings in the field, is younger and a better defender. The bat is probably a wash.

I'm not against getting players. I'm against getting what you already have, paying more for what you already have.

pedro, I saw Janish last year too. awful. I saw something else in 2010. Completely different hitter. I have no idea why, but I suspect Janish isn't mentally up to being "The Man" at SS. I think he might be a very good backup though.

So, if that's the stance, why wouldn't you want Valdez? I agree that Janish' play is better when he doesn't play every day. Personally, I think its because he lacks the strength and stamina to hold up over the grind and not any mental issue, but either way, the result is extended PT turns a .650ish OPS guy into a .520ish OPS guy. Janish and Valdez both exist to make the plays at SS should the starter go down for an extended period. If that's the case, why wouldn't you want a second guy to share that role with Janish? If the stance is Janish gets worse the more he plays, do you really want him to be the only option for 4 months if Cozart is lost for the season on Memorial Day? I think Janish will be perfectly acceptable as a defense first SS who can play 3 or 4 days each week if Cozart goes down or for 5 or so starts per month if Cozart does well (but I'd prefer a bat if the role doesn't include extensive time at SS). But if he's forced into the bigger role and we want to limit him to 3 or 4 days per week to keep him from cratering, who plays those other days? Up to the point of the Valdez acquisition, the Reds didn't have anyone else that I wanted to see getting that much PT at the SS position. That much PT at SS requires a better defender than anyone who is on hand and deemed major league ready. I think Negron and Gregorious would be acceptable, but neither is a major league option at the outset of ST IMO. That leaves Frazier, Valaika, Cairo, et al and none plays enough defense for my taste given the amount of PT at SS we're talking about.

Horst was no better than the 4th option to get the call should the Reds need a lefty. Chapman, Mahay and Zavada are all ahead of him. Travis Webb might surpass him and, by mid season, Joseph, Thurman and Manno may all be better options. I think the chances of Horst logging any time in Cincy at all were beyond remote. That was evident when he was the first choice to be removed from the 40 man when guys like Negron, Valaika, Jordan Smith and Carlos Fisher could also have been chosen. The subsequent signings of Mahay and Zavada was further evidence that the Reds just weren't interested in Horst at the major league level. The Reds gave up what amounts to nothing to get to improve a very thin set of options capable of playing SS with the defensive ability that the position demands. Whats not to like?

redsmetz
01-27-2012, 07:25 AM
Here's the Philly paper's take on the Valdez-Horst trade:

http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/phillies_zone/With-depth-Valdez-becomes-expendable.html

traderumor
01-27-2012, 09:32 AM
Here's the Philly paper's take on the Valdez-Horst trade:

http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/phillies_zone/With-depth-Valdez-becomes-expendable.htmlSo, the Phillies are worried about the difference between $930K and the MLB minimum salary? :lol: Gotta love the nonsense reasons that front offices like to try to slip by their fans.

TRF
01-27-2012, 09:53 AM
Cash is easier to replace than talent. Here is a list of this year's FA SS's


Player Last Team Pos Age AB HR AVG RBI Status
Drew Sutton Red Sox SS 28 54 0 .315 7 Signed by Braves; Details TBD (Minor League)
Alex Gonzalez Braves SS 34 564 15 .241 56 Signed by Brewers; 1 year, $4MM
Cesar Izturis Orioles SS 31 30 0 .200 1 Signed by Brewers; Details TBD (Minor League)
Rafael Furcal Cardinals SS 33 333 8 .231 28 Signed by Cardinals; 2 years; $14MM
W. Bloomquist Dbacks SS 33 350 4 .266 26 Signed by Diamondbacks; 2 years, $3.8MM
John McDonald Dbacks SS 37 227 2 .229 22 Signed by Diamondbacks; 2 years, $3MM
Jose Reyes Mets SS 28 537 7 .337 44 Signed by Marlins; 6 years, $106MM
Jimmy Rollins Phillies SS 32 567 16 .268 63 Signed by Phillies; 3 years, $33MM
Clint Barmes Astros SS 32 446 12 .244 39 Signed by Pirates; 2 years, $10.5MM
Marco Scutaro Red Sox SS 35 395 7 .299 54 Signed by Red Sox; 1 year, $6MM club option
Pedro Ciriaco Pirates SS 26 33 0 .303 6 Signed by Red Sox; Details TBD (Minor League)
Y. Betancourt Brewers SS 29 556 13 .252 68 Signed by Royals; 1 year, $2MM
H Nakajima* Seibu Lions SS 29 566 16 .297 100 Signed by Sebu Lions(Japan); Yankees posted, no deal
Ryan Theriot Cardinals SS 32 442 1 .271 47 Unrestricted
Edgar Renteria Reds SS 36 299 5 .251 36 Unrestricted
Felipe Lopez Rays SS 31 141 2 .206 11 Unrestricted
Ronny Cedeno Pirates SS 28 413 2 .249 32 Unrestricted, Club Option Declined

Here are the FA 2B


Player Last Team Pos Age AB HR AVG RBI Status
Kelly Johnson Blue Jays 2B 29 545 21 .222 58 Signed by Blue Jays via arbitration
Jack Wilson Braves 2B 33 214 0 .243 11 Signed by Braves; 1 year, $1MM
Brooks Conrad Braves 2B 31 103 4 .223 13 Signed by Brewers; Details TBD (Minor League)
Aaron Hill Dbacks 2B 29 520 8 .246 61 Signed by Diamondbacks; 2 years, $11MM
J Hairston Jr. Brewers 2B 35 337 5 .270 31 Signed by Dodgers; 2 years, $6MM
Mark Ellis Rockies 2B 34 480 7 .248 41 Signed by Dodgers; 2 years, $8.75MM
Jose Lopez Marlins 2B 27 21 8 .216 21 Signed by Indians; 1 year, $900K (Minor League)
Nick Punto Cardinals 2B 33 133 1 .278 20 Signed by Red Sox; 2 years, $3MM
B. Phillips Reds 2B 30 610 18 .300 82 Signed by Reds; 1 year, $12MM club option
Ramon Santiago Tigers 2B 32 258 5 .260 30 Signed by Tigers; 2 years, $4MM
Jamey Carroll Dodgers 2B 37 452 0 .290 17 Signed by Twins; 2 years, $7MM
Jeff Keppinger Giants 2B 31 379 6 .277 35 Unrestricted
Aaron Miles Dodgers 2B 34 454 3 .275 45 Unrestricted
Carlos Guillen Tigers 2B 36 95 3 .232 13 Unrestricted

I get that with all that went on with the Latos, Marshall and Madsen deals, perhaps a backup IF wasn't the highest priority, But a few of these guys went cheap, and a bunch of them are better options as pinch hitters. Not to mention Valaika, Janish, Negron, Rodriguez already in the system.

Coffey left, and had success. Not a ton of success, but he has had 2 good years in the three since he left. Belisle has been very good in Colorado. rough that first year, then two very good years following that. I hate giving up young LH pitching. hate. it. They take longer to develop, but are usually worth it. As much as everyone loathed Majewski, everyone seemed willing to wait on Bray. Coffey and Belisle were replaceable, because RH relievers grow on trees in the wild. LH's need to be cultivated.

Are we really thinking Wilson Valdez is better than ALL or ANY of the above options? I know, the Reds weren't getting the top tier FA's at those positions, but IMO I'd rather overpay with money on a one year deal than give up talent for the same thing.

TRF
01-27-2012, 09:55 AM
AND I just realized Ondrusek is right handed.

nevermind. :)

IslandRed
01-27-2012, 10:30 AM
Are we really thinking Wilson Valdez is better than ALL or ANY of the above options? I know, the Reds weren't getting the top tier FA's at those positions, but IMO I'd rather overpay with money on a one year deal than give up talent for the same thing.

In theory, I agree, but Jocketty's had to do some serious dollar-squeezing to fit in everything he's trying to do. Using prospects in lieu of cash to get what the team needs is nothing new. Just hope he's right about the Reds probably not missing Horst.

I'll also say I respect your stance on left-handed pitching. Oddly enough, I have a similar thing with shortstops, which is why I'm on the other side of this one. I'm old-school on shortstop defense and I hate, hate, hate it when the team runs someone out there who isn't actually good at the position, even though I understand the offense-defense tradeoff. And I really didn't like it that the Reds had only two sufficient options at either the majors or Triple-A, and that's with holding my nose where Janish's hitting is concerned. (Disclaimer: I am aware Kris Negron exists, but if Janish's bat is borderline unacceptable, Negron's shouldn't be allowed anywhere near Cincinnati.)

In the end, Valdez may or may not be better than Janish overall, but he's one more needed body between us and the abyss of watching non-shortstops playing shortstop. Which is why I was saying all offseason that there was going to be a guy, I just didn't know who it would be.

traderumor
01-27-2012, 11:06 AM
Cash is easier to replace than talent. Here is a list of this year's FA SS's


Player Last Team Pos Age AB HR AVG RBI Status
Drew Sutton Red Sox SS 28 54 0 .315 7 Signed by Braves; Details TBD (Minor League)
Alex Gonzalez Braves SS 34 564 15 .241 56 Signed by Brewers; 1 year, $4MM
Cesar Izturis Orioles SS 31 30 0 .200 1 Signed by Brewers; Details TBD (Minor League)
Rafael Furcal Cardinals SS 33 333 8 .231 28 Signed by Cardinals; 2 years; $14MM
W. Bloomquist Dbacks SS 33 350 4 .266 26 Signed by Diamondbacks; 2 years, $3.8MM
John McDonald Dbacks SS 37 227 2 .229 22 Signed by Diamondbacks; 2 years, $3MM
Jose Reyes Mets SS 28 537 7 .337 44 Signed by Marlins; 6 years, $106MM
Jimmy Rollins Phillies SS 32 567 16 .268 63 Signed by Phillies; 3 years, $33MM
Clint Barmes Astros SS 32 446 12 .244 39 Signed by Pirates; 2 years, $10.5MM
Marco Scutaro Red Sox SS 35 395 7 .299 54 Signed by Red Sox; 1 year, $6MM club option
Pedro Ciriaco Pirates SS 26 33 0 .303 6 Signed by Red Sox; Details TBD (Minor League)
Y. Betancourt Brewers SS 29 556 13 .252 68 Signed by Royals; 1 year, $2MM
H Nakajima* Seibu Lions SS 29 566 16 .297 100 Signed by Sebu Lions(Japan); Yankees posted, no deal
Ryan Theriot Cardinals SS 32 442 1 .271 47 Unrestricted
Edgar Renteria Reds SS 36 299 5 .251 36 Unrestricted
Felipe Lopez Rays SS 31 141 2 .206 11 Unrestricted
Ronny Cedeno Pirates SS 28 413 2 .249 32 Unrestricted, Club Option Declined

Here are the FA 2B


Player Last Team Pos Age AB HR AVG RBI Status
Kelly Johnson Blue Jays 2B 29 545 21 .222 58 Signed by Blue Jays via arbitration
Jack Wilson Braves 2B 33 214 0 .243 11 Signed by Braves; 1 year, $1MM
Brooks Conrad Braves 2B 31 103 4 .223 13 Signed by Brewers; Details TBD (Minor League)
Aaron Hill Dbacks 2B 29 520 8 .246 61 Signed by Diamondbacks; 2 years, $11MM
J Hairston Jr. Brewers 2B 35 337 5 .270 31 Signed by Dodgers; 2 years, $6MM
Mark Ellis Rockies 2B 34 480 7 .248 41 Signed by Dodgers; 2 years, $8.75MM
Jose Lopez Marlins 2B 27 21 8 .216 21 Signed by Indians; 1 year, $900K (Minor League)
Nick Punto Cardinals 2B 33 133 1 .278 20 Signed by Red Sox; 2 years, $3MM
B. Phillips Reds 2B 30 610 18 .300 82 Signed by Reds; 1 year, $12MM club option
Ramon Santiago Tigers 2B 32 258 5 .260 30 Signed by Tigers; 2 years, $4MM
Jamey Carroll Dodgers 2B 37 452 0 .290 17 Signed by Twins; 2 years, $7MM
Jeff Keppinger Giants 2B 31 379 6 .277 35 Unrestricted
Aaron Miles Dodgers 2B 34 454 3 .275 45 Unrestricted
Carlos Guillen Tigers 2B 36 95 3 .232 13 Unrestricted

I get that with all that went on with the Latos, Marshall and Madsen deals, perhaps a backup IF wasn't the highest priority, But a few of these guys went cheap, and a bunch of them are better options as pinch hitters. Not to mention Valaika, Janish, Negron, Rodriguez already in the system.

Coffey left, and had success. Not a ton of success, but he has had 2 good years in the three since he left. Belisle has been very good in Colorado. rough that first year, then two very good years following that. I hate giving up young LH pitching. hate. it. They take longer to develop, but are usually worth it. As much as everyone loathed Majewski, everyone seemed willing to wait on Bray. Coffey and Belisle were replaceable, because RH relievers grow on trees in the wild. LH's need to be cultivated.

Are we really thinking Wilson Valdez is better than ALL or ANY of the above options? I know, the Reds weren't getting the top tier FA's at those positions, but IMO I'd rather overpay with money on a one year deal than give up talent for the same thing.Of what's left, that list is slim pickings. You still are begging questions. Despite the Phillies apparent concern for about $500K, I'm guessing they could care less about cash and would rather take a flyer on a player, a non-roster player at that. Since it takes two parties to make a deal, you assume that cash was an option, when it is more likely they didn't want our money.

But then, this is a lot of discussion about two players that are nowhere on the radar for the likelihood of being difference makers, no matter how they are used. Heck, Horst got a ST invite for his new team, they aren't even ready to use up Valdez' roster spot for him.

Mountains, molehills.

TRF
01-27-2012, 11:27 AM
Not really making a mountain of it.

At the very least it was something to talk about.

At the most, I stand behind this position. Valdez is sub Janish. He's sub Janish defensively, and at best a wash offensively. 5 years ago, he was probably exactly what Janish is now. Oddly enough he's 5 years older.

IMO, you do not trade for Paul Janish. Ever. You buy him. When you trade for him, you are paying twice. in salary and talent. Small market teams like the Reds should not do that. This is my opinion, it's how I think a franchise should be run. If Valdez makes the 25 man roster, and he will, he's the 25th man.

You don't trade for the 25th man. He's not a defensive replacement at SS, because you don't do that. He'll be filler, giving Cozart a day off. He'll get 200 or so AB's, most of those as a starter giving days off to BP, Cozart and Rolen. And since he won't significantly out hit Janish, since his best position is 2B, and since Janish defensively is still the best SS on the 40 man roster, is anyone really ok with this? Do we really think that Cozart won't be ready for OD, 9 months removed from TJ surgery on his non throwing arm? I guess that is possible. But with the following on the 40-man after Cozart, Janish, Valaika, Negron, Rodriguez, Gregorious, and Cairo, I think it was covered.

It's less me complaining about the individual, and more me being upset with the type of acquisition. There were in house options, and FA's that only cost money. In house candidates might burn options, except for Valaika who has already started his clock.

I don't want to hoard prospects. I want them so they can acquire major league talent. Valdez barely qualifies, but his age, bat etc. beg the question of, why spend talent on this guy?

BuckeyeRedleg
01-27-2012, 11:56 AM
Not really making a mountain of it.

At the very least it was something to talk about.

At the most, I stand behind this position. Valdez is sub Janish. He's sub Janish defensively, and at best a wash offensively. 5 years ago, he was probably exactly what Janish is now. Oddly enough he's 5 years older.

I agree with this. If anything, Valdez might have a slightly better bat, but the gap there is not as large as the gap between the two defensively.

Not a huge deal, but I don't really see how Valdez makes the club any stronger.

And even though Horst is not a super duper prospect, he's a pretty decent LHP that has had success pretty much every step of the way. If Valdez was free, I'd say meh. But I'm even less excited about the combination of giving up a decent LHP and taking on $930K, when you are already paying another sub-replacement level player (Janish) $850K. Yes, those dollars do add up and paying $1.8M on replacement level talent is $1M too much.

All this, however, means very little if Cozart can stay healthy and give us 150 games. Hopefully he can do that, because watching Valdez and Janish getting 500 PA's between them may make my eyes bleed.

TRF
01-27-2012, 12:07 PM
Can someone clarify? is Ondrusek LH or RH? Baseball-reference says RH. But I've seen references to him being LH, and I can't say that i really remember.

Patrick Bateman
01-27-2012, 12:11 PM
He is a righty.

traderumor
01-27-2012, 12:24 PM
Not really making a mountain of it.

At the very least it was something to talk about.

At the most, I stand behind this position. Valdez is sub Janish. He's sub Janish defensively, and at best a wash offensively. 5 years ago, he was probably exactly what Janish is now. Oddly enough he's 5 years older.

IMO, you do not trade for Paul Janish. Ever. You buy him. When you trade for him, you are paying twice. in salary and talent. Small market teams like the Reds should not do that. This is my opinion, it's how I think a franchise should be run. If Valdez makes the 25 man roster, and he will, he's the 25th man.

You don't trade for the 25th man. He's not a defensive replacement at SS, because you don't do that. He'll be filler, giving Cozart a day off. He'll get 200 or so AB's, most of those as a starter giving days off to BP, Cozart and Rolen. And since he won't significantly out hit Janish, since his best position is 2B, and since Janish defensively is still the best SS on the 40 man roster, is anyone really ok with this? Do we really think that Cozart won't be ready for OD, 9 months removed from TJ surgery on his non throwing arm? I guess that is possible. But with the following on the 40-man after Cozart, Janish, Valaika, Negron, Rodriguez, Gregorious, and Cairo, I think it was covered.

It's less me complaining about the individual, and more me being upset with the type of acquisition. There were in house options, and FA's that only cost money. In house candidates might burn options, except for Valaika who has already started his clock.

I don't want to hoard prospects. I want them so they can acquire major league talent. Valdez barely qualifies, but his age, bat etc. beg the question of, why spend talent on this guy?

More begging the question.

Who says "you never trade for the 25th man?" That seems limiting to how a major league roster is constructed.

And who exactly is the 25th man? The 12th reliever? The 5th OFer? An extra infielder? The 5th starter? Looks like that is a big ole "it depends."

Finally, did they spend "talent" on the guy? While I get there are types of acquisitions, I am unfamiliar with this heirarchy that you keep referring to. Is that in a GM manual somewhere?

TRF
01-27-2012, 12:45 PM
It's in my manual.

your 5th starter is not the 25th man. He's the fifth starter. Do you think Valdez had more value last year than Vance Worley? Of course you don't.

IMO, small market teams should not trade for Paul Janish types. Buy them on the cheap? yes. But scouting, signing, and developing Horst costs money they cannot waste, especially once you see that development realized as he did pitch major league innings.

You don't agree. clearly. But I haven't been condescending in my arguments.

REDREAD
01-27-2012, 01:27 PM
I don't want to hoard prospects. I want them so they can acquire major league talent. Valdez barely qualifies, but his age, bat etc. beg the question of, why spend talent on this guy?

Ok, I think I get your point now.
You'd rather spend maybe 2-3 million or so to get a backup SS (example would be Renturia last year) than trade Horst to get a backup SS like Valdez making 950k (ish). Is that right?

I can see that point of view. If Horst ends up being a valuable contributor, you will be right :)

traderumor
01-27-2012, 01:32 PM
It's in my manual.

your 5th starter is not the 25th man. He's the fifth starter. Do you think Valdez had more value last year than Vance Worley? Of course you don't.

IMO, small market teams should not trade for Paul Janish types. Buy them on the cheap? yes. But scouting, signing, and developing Horst costs money they cannot waste, especially once you see that development realized as he did pitch major league innings.

You don't agree. clearly. But I haven't been condescending in my arguments.Really? This discussion started with a condescending, sarcastic remark you made about "this is one of my favorite arguments" toward another poster. :lol:

Anyhow, surely you know enough about the game to know that identifying a particular player or bench position as "the 25th man" is chasing the wind since it can vary depending on the DL, the schedule, etc. For example, some teams carry an extra reliever or bench player because of off days and send down their "5th starter." The "25th man" is as fluid as the roster. Further, your reasoning that "Worley had a great season as the Phillies 5th starter and Valdez is a light hitting utility infielder, therefore 5th starters cannot be the 25th man" is just another example of the poor logic used throughout this discussion. The conclusions you've made could be valid, but it sure isn't due to the arguments presented.

Plus Plus
01-27-2012, 01:35 PM
I still remember one of the most dominating pitching performances that I ever witnessed in person. The Reds were playing the Giants in 2007 and Barry Bonds came up in the 8th inning against Jon Coutlangus. Coutlangus struck Bonds out and made him look like an absolute fool in the process. At that moment, I decided that Coutlangus would be a vital LOOGY for the Reds going forward (I was not versed in baseball statistics and measures at that time to the extent that I am now). Coutlangus ended that game going 1.1ip with 3 strikeouts, and made 62 appearances that year.

Now, it's 2012 and Jon Coutlangus is somewhere managing a car dealership, coaching high school baseball, or is lost somewhere in the ether.

The moral is not that Horst is Coutlangus: Horst is Horst and Coutlangus is Coutlangus. The moral is that relief pitchers who aren't that good don't need to be even thought twice about. I can guarantee that Coutlangus v.3.0 will come up through the minors this year and we will have another AAAA replaceable arm that the Reds can have on their AAA or MLB rosters, and then remove and not have to lose a wink of sleep about it.

TRF
01-27-2012, 02:17 PM
Really? This discussion started with a condescending, sarcastic remark you made about "this is one of my favorite arguments" toward another poster. :lol:

Anyhow, surely you know enough about the game to know that identifying a particular player or bench position as "the 25th man" is chasing the wind since it can vary depending on the DL, the schedule, etc. For example, some teams carry an extra reliever or bench player because of off days and send down their "5th starter." The "25th man" is as fluid as the roster. Further, your reasoning that "Worley had a great season as the Phillies 5th starter and Valdez is a light hitting utility infielder, therefore 5th starters cannot be the 25th man" is just another example of the poor logic used throughout this discussion. The conclusions you've made could be valid, but it sure isn't due to the arguments presented.

It wasn't condescending as that Dorn argument has been brought up to me numerous times, I stood by it then, I stand by it now, and it is a fun argument. Are AAAA players, like Dorn worth a flier over say the Corey Patterson types, that seem to without fail get invites to ST and major league deals. Someone this year will take a chance on Willy Taveras. Meanwhile, Dorn, in a platoon, a guy that dominates RH pitching won't get a single MLB at bat.

Patterson, Taveras, Valdez, Janish. guys with speed or defense. they get chance after chance. Juan Castro had a 16 year career and a .595 career OPS. Are we saying there were NO better SS's than Juan Castro? Why did Castro have a career when say Gookie Dawkins did not?

I'd say that regardless of what team he was on at the time, Valdez was considered the 25th man. Injuries to Utley and Rollins pushed him higher, and he was exposed for what he is: decent glove, no stick. He's an older, latin Paul Janish. I'm of the opinion you purchase those players, you do not trade for them. Especially when you have 6 MI on your 40 man roster.

REDREAD
01-27-2012, 02:41 PM
It wasn't condescending as that Dorn argument has been brought up to me numerous times, I stood by it then, I stand by it now, and it is a fun argument. .

I think I was the one that mentioned Dorn. It wasn't a shot at you or anyone in particular.

It just seemed, for a few years, Dorn was a Redszone Martyr that never got a chance. It reminds me of Drew Nelson constantly calling for DT Cromer to get called up, that's all. There was also a career AAAA journeyman pitcher that had a good year in AAA and people kept calling into the radio show to demand he get called up.. I can't remember the guy's name now.. but he bombed when he got the chance.

I think we can be overoptimistic about our minor leaguers at times.
It wasn't intended as an insult to anyone.

Maybe Horst becomes a servicable "last arm out of the pen". That is worth something, but comparable to a backup SS IMO.

TRF
01-27-2012, 04:03 PM
I was and am a big Dorn fan. I do think guys like Dorn, Cromer, Petagine(sp?) and others deserve a chance. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't but small market teams cannot afford to waste talent they have to bring in players they don't need.

The Reds simply do not need Wilson Valdez, not with seven MI's on the 40 man roster. Valdez makes it eight. They certainly didn't need him at the cost of a pitcher they had sunk almost a million in salary plus development. Ondrusek's best feature was he is still cheap and productive. Why do you give away a young pitcher, one you are developing for a 34 year old MI with no bat, declining skillset that just enters a logjam of younger BETTER players?

lollipopcurve
01-27-2012, 04:15 PM
Why do you give away a young pitcher, one you are developing for a 34 year old MI with no bat, declining skillset that just enters a logjam of younger BETTER players?

Because a SS is a greater need than a LH reliever. Because an experienced utility player is more likely to handle the role well than a guy who's relatively new to it.

Over the last two years, Valdez has started a lot of games for perhaps the best team in the league. He's played in the postseason. That kind of experience counts for something.

TRF
01-27-2012, 04:16 PM
Because a SS is a greater need than a LH reliever. Because an experienced utility player is more likely to handle the role well than a guy who's relatively new to it.

Over the last two years, Valdez has started a lot of games for perhaps the best team in the league. He's played in the postseason. That kind of experience counts for something.

Paul Janish played for the 2010 NL Central champions.

Sometimes we over value postseason experience when it comes to PT players.

TRF
01-27-2012, 04:53 PM
As an aside, look on baseball-reference's site at Ondrusek if you get a chance. scroll down to the similar players section. It's kinda interesting.

Boss-Hog
01-27-2012, 05:00 PM
As an aside, look on baseball-reference's site at Ondrusek if you get a chance. scroll down to the similar players section. It's kinda interesting.

I'm not sure why you keep mentioning Ondrusek in this debate?

TRF
01-27-2012, 05:19 PM
I'm not sure why you keep mentioning Ondrusek in this debate?

because I'm an idiot?

long week, and for some reason I juxtaposed the two in my head.

I now respectfully bow out, plan to sleep all weekend and promise not to post for a goo long while. clearly, my head isn't all there.

mth123
01-27-2012, 09:39 PM
It's in my manual.

your 5th starter is not the 25th man. He's the fifth starter. Do you think Valdez had more value last year than Vance Worley? Of course you don't.

IMO, small market teams should not trade for Paul Janish types. Buy them on the cheap? yes. But scouting, signing, and developing Horst costs money they cannot waste, especially once you see that development realized as he did pitch major league innings.

You don't agree. clearly. But I haven't been condescending in my arguments.

Here is the thing, trading Jeremy Horst for a guy who fills an organizational hole who makes less than $1 Million is buying him on the cheap. This deal was the Reds assuming Valdez' salary to take him off of Philly's hands. Jeremy Horst was merely a token sent the other way to make it official. The Reds thought so little of Horst they DFA'd him long before even having to clear a spot on the 40 man roster. They chose him to DFA instead of 2 infielders who washed out in AAA, a reliever who can't even strike anybody out in the minors and a 28 y/o reliever who has reached his peak and gets the yips every time he sniffs the majors. In years past, none of these guys would have lasted on the 40 man roster, yet the Reds chose to keep them over Horst. After that, Horst was available to all teams and all teams passed. Then, even though they got him through the DFA process as Reds property, they showed no interest in giving him a chance or letting him pitch even emergency innings in 2012 by signing two journeyman lefties who surpassed him on the depth chart for the same job. This isn't like the Reds dealt Chapman for Valdez. They gave up a guy that they tried to kick to the curb but nobody else wanted.

camisadelgolf
01-28-2012, 09:48 AM
I was and am a big Dorn fan. I do think guys like Dorn, Cromer, Petagine(sp?) and others deserve a chance. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't but small market teams cannot afford to waste talent they have to bring in players they don't need.

The Reds simply do not need Wilson Valdez, not with seven MI's on the 40 man roster. Valdez makes it eight. They certainly didn't need him at the cost of a pitcher they had sunk almost a million in salary plus development. Ondrusek's best feature was he is still cheap and productive. Why do you give away a young pitcher, one you are developing for a 34 year old MI with no bat, declining skillset that just enters a logjam of younger BETTER players?
Not that I disagree with you necessarily, but you only listed examples of players that didn't work out. Who are some guys that dd?

And I'm with Boss-Hog here--how is Logan Ondrusek relevant?

Also, are you claiming Jeremy Horst has made nearly a million dollars with the Reds? His yearly salaries and signing bonus, including the minor leagues, haven't even totaled half a million.

_Sir_Charles_
01-28-2012, 10:01 AM
No, TRF simply got Horst and Ondrusek reversed in his head. Logan's NOT relevant to this discussion.

WebScorpion
01-29-2012, 08:33 PM
My only worry is that Janish will outperform Valdez and they'll send Janish down only because he has options to keep from losing Valdez. So far, Jocketty has shown little propensity to do that, but I hope he doesn't start now. If Janish outperforms Valdez they shouldn't hesitate to DFA Valdez and outright him to AAA if he goes unclaimed. I like having the insurance, but I just have a sneaking suspicion that Janish will have the better year (offensively, I'm certain he'll be better defensively) of the two. Hopefully, Cozart will rake all year, stay healthy, and make this whole discussion moot. :thumbup:

PuffyPig
01-29-2012, 08:36 PM
My only worry is that Janish will outperform Valdez and they'll send Janish down only because he has options to keep from losing Valdez.

Since Cozaert is an exceptional wild card at being even a major league SS, it's nice to have 2 other options.

That's all Valdez is, another option, something we desparately needed.

Tom Servo
01-29-2012, 08:43 PM
I wouldn't worry about Janish outperforming anyone.

traderumor
01-30-2012, 09:40 AM
Since Cozaert is an exceptional wild card at being even a major league SS, it's nice to have 2 other options.

That's all Valdez is, another option, something we desparately needed.

Perhaps because of the injury, but his short stint was impressive and his minor league pedigree is good. I think he is a question mark, which I think is what you meant by your analogy, but has performed well enough to project as being at least average at the position, both with the stick and defensively. All things considered, that level of performance will benefit the team.

PuffyPig
01-30-2012, 10:15 AM
Perhaps because of the injury, but his short stint was impressive and his minor league pedigree is good. I think he is a question mark, which I think is what you meant by your analogy, but has performed well enough to project as being at least average at the position, both with the stick and defensively. All things considered, that level of performance will benefit the team.

I'm not sure how impressive his debut really was.

He had 38 PA, zero walks.

A .345 BABIP and a 20% HR/FB rate indicates his low .800's OPS was not sustainable on that basis.

Now it was 38 PA, so it really means little in any event.

His minor league stats indicate he should be a servicable major league SS, but not much else.

With him coming off a serious injury, I think we needed more than one option.

lollipopcurve
01-30-2012, 10:21 AM
With him coming off a serious injury, I think we needed more than one option.

TJ surgery is routine these days. Janish himself had it while in the minors, and to his throwing arm. Cozart's surgery was to his left elbow. Not a complete non-issue, but nothing to be real worried about.

puca
01-30-2012, 11:45 AM
I'm not sure how impressive his debut really was.

He had 38 PA, zero walks.

A .345 BABIP and a 20% HR/FB rate indicates his low .800's OPS was not sustainable on that basis.

Now it was 38 PA, so it really means little in any event.

His minor league stats indicate he should be a servicable major league SS, but not much else.

With him coming off a serious injury, I think we needed more than one option.

The problem as I see it is that if Cozart fails or sustains a long-term injury, neither Janish or Valdez are decent options - if this club plans on contending.

Depth is nice, but if the Reds need to rely on this depth more than occasionally then they are probably in trouble.

redsfan30
01-30-2012, 11:55 AM
I wouldn't worry about Janish outperforming anyone.

This.

traderumor
01-30-2012, 11:56 AM
I'm not sure how impressive his debut really was.

He had 38 PA, zero walks.

A .345 BABIP and a 20% HR/FB rate indicates his low .800's OPS was not sustainable on that basis.

Now it was 38 PA, so it really means little in any event.

His minor league stats indicate he should be a servicable major league SS, but not much else.

With him coming off a serious injury, I think we needed more than one option.The results for 38 PA is completely irrelevant to this conversation. He clearly demonstrated MLB talent both at the plate in the field. His minor league results are the relevant indicator, and offensively he should be a positive addition to the offense's bottom line, and at least neutral defensively.

For the record, I had to eat crow for those who were begging for him last year much earlier. Not calling him up probably wouldn't have made a difference in the big picture since he wasn't a pitcher, but that misstep by management could have given them more than 38 PAs in the show to project for this season, which is evidenced by their handing him the job going into this season.

Bumstead
01-30-2012, 12:59 PM
11 pages of debate that Janish is as good as Valdez...haha...Janish is one of the worst MLB players in the history of the game. Valdez can play all the infield positions with above average defense (Janish is pretty much just a SS) and is clearly, clearly, clearly a better hitter no matter how old he is. I would venture that Valdez will be a better hitter than Janish when he is 50. As to giving up something of value, it was Jeremy Horst...If Janish starts in AAA over some younger guy that should be playing I would be shocked. Amazing how tied into home-grown "talent" some of us Reds fans become. Janish is horrible, we should be happy we won't have to watch him be horrible... :beerme:

Bum

PuffyPig
01-30-2012, 01:30 PM
The results for 38 PA is completely irrelevant to this conversation. He clearly demonstrated MLB talent both at the plate in the field. His minor league results are the relevant indicator, and offensively he should be a positive addition to the offense's bottom line, and at least neutral defensively.



Isn't that, more or less, what I said?

RedsManRick
01-30-2012, 01:50 PM
11 pages of debate that Janish is as good as Valdez...haha...Janish is one of the worst MLB players in the history of the game. Valdez can play all the infield positions with above average defense (Janish is pretty much just a SS) and is clearly, clearly, clearly a better hitter no matter how old he is. I would venture that Valdez will be a better hitter than Janish when he is 50. As to giving up something of value, it was Jeremy Horst...If Janish starts in AAA over some younger guy that should be playing I would be shocked. Amazing how tied into home-grown "talent" some of us Reds fans become. Janish is horrible, we should be happy we won't have to watch him be horrible... :beerme:

Bum

The grass is always greener on the other side, I guess.




PA AVG OBP SLG Fld WAR
2010 363 .258 .306 .360 1.9 1.1
2011 300 .249 .294 .341 -5.0 0.0
663 .254 .300 .351 -3.1 1.1

2010 228 .260 .338 .385 1.2 1.1
2011 366 .214 .259 .262 4.2 -0.4
594 .231 .289 .308 5.4 0.7

Over their last season's worth of playing time, they're basically the same guy production wise - Wilson has a slight edge that you certainly couldn't detect with your eyes. Valdez has been a better hitter. Janish has been a better fielder. It more or less comes out a wash.

The idea that either guys is clearly better (that is, much more likely to outproduce the other given the same opportunity) is just silly and seems to be to be based in a visceral reaction from having the privilege of watching Janish suck -- and not having been able to watch Valdez.

I get that people really don't want Janish on the team. I'd love to have a better backup too. But the reality is that they are very similar players -- guys are quality defensive IFs who have played primarily at SS and some at 3B and 2B and who are poor hitters. Try to project them for 2012 and the bars of uncertainty around either players' performance significantly overlaps with the other guy.

It's completely possible that the Reds don't miss Horst at all. But let's not delude ourselves that one crappy hitting, good fielding 25th man is better than the other. It assumes way too much about our ability to differentiate between part-time players in small samples. Janish is not a good player and arguing that Valdez isn't much better is not to defend Janish so much as it is an effort to assess Valdez realistically.

Bumstead
01-30-2012, 01:55 PM
The grass is always greener on the other side, I guess.




PA AVG OBP SLG Fld WAR
2010 363 .258 .306 .360 1.9 1.1
2011 300 .249 .294 .341 -5.0 0.0
663 .254 .300 .351 -3.1 1.1

2010 228 .260 .338 .385 1.2 1.1
2011 366 .214 .259 .262 4.2 -0.4
594 .231 .289 .308 5.4 0.7

Over the season's worth of playing time, they're basically the same guy production wise - Wilson has a slight edge. Valdez has been a better hitter. Janish has been a better fielder.

The idea that either guys is clearly better (that is, much more likely to outproduce the other given the same opportunity) is just silly and seems to be to be based in a visceral reaction from having the privilege of watching Janish suck -- and not having been able to watch Valdez.

I get that people really don't want Janish on the team. The reality is that they are very similar players -- guys are quality defensive IFs who have played primarily at SS and some at 3B and 2B and who are poor hitters. Try to project them for 2012 and the bars of uncertainty around either players' performance significantly overlaps with the other guy.

It's completely possible that the Reds don't miss Horst. But let's not delude ourselves that one crappy hitting, good fielding 25th man is better than the other. It assumes way too much about our ability to differentiate between part-time players in small samples.

Valdez is better (and clearly a better hitter) and knows his job and has no problem with that being his job. For those that want to continue to hold onto this belief that Janish is actually a MLB player, carry-on for another 11 pages. I will just be happy that he is done and that Dusty won't be able to play him an excessive amount in the coming season. War means nothing to me; I will continue to go by real stats and actually watching players (as opposed to stats created by people that don't want to watch players).

11 pages! Hilarious!

Bum

camisadelgolf
01-30-2012, 03:35 PM
11 pages of debate that Janish is as good as Valdez...haha...Janish is one of the worst MLB players in the history of the game. Valdez can play all the infield positions with above average defense (Janish is pretty much just a SS) and is clearly, clearly, clearly a better hitter no matter how old he is. I would venture that Valdez will be a better hitter than Janish when he is 50. As to giving up something of value, it was Jeremy Horst...If Janish starts in AAA over some younger guy that should be playing I would be shocked. Amazing how tied into home-grown "talent" some of us Reds fans become. Janish is horrible, we should be happy we won't have to watch him be horrible... :beerme:

Bum
That was one of the worst uses of hyperbole in the history of language.

TRF
01-30-2012, 03:35 PM
Valdez is better (and clearly a better hitter) and knows his job and has no problem with that being his job. For those that want to continue to hold onto this belief that Janish is actually a MLB player, carry-on for another 11 pages. I will just be happy that he is done and that Dusty won't be able to play him an excessive amount in the coming season. War means nothing to me; I will continue to go by real stats and actually watching players (as opposed to stats created by people that don't want to watch players).

11 pages! Hilarious!

Bum

don't let facts get in the way of a good rant. I said it before, I'll say it again. You don't trade for Paul Janish... you buy him. You buy him, you buy Juan Castro's. You buy them you shouldn't trade for them, especially when you already have them.

Valdez is just Janish with a Latin last name and a few more miles. That's it. And if you THINK Valdez has value, then you think Janish has value.

PuffyPig
01-30-2012, 03:43 PM
I said it before, I'll say it again. You don't trade for Paul Janish... you buy him. You buy him, you buy Juan Castro's. You buy them you shouldn't trade for them, especially when you already have them.

Valdez is just Janish with a Latin last name and a few more miles. That's it. And if you THINK Valdez has value, then you think Janish has value.

Couldn't you say the exact same thing about Jeremy Horst?

But you'd only have to say it once.

defender
01-30-2012, 03:52 PM
Janish does not have the track record to assert he has a given value. I don't want to argue that Valdez will be better. I don't want to argue that Janish was no better than last years performance. I think Valdez is more likely not to be as bad as Janish was last year.

Bumstead
01-30-2012, 03:52 PM
don't let facts get in the way of a good rant. I said it before, I'll say it again. You don't trade for Paul Janish... you buy him. You buy him, you buy Juan Castro's. You buy them you shouldn't trade for them, especially when you already have them.

Valdez is just Janish with a Latin last name and a few more miles. That's it. And if you THINK Valdez has value, then you think Janish has value.

What did we trade? Jeremy Horst??? Who cares? He's better than Janish without a doubt. I still don't understand the attachment to Janish on this board. He's horrible and always has been. He pretty much just plays SS. I mean, seriously, Valdez can play well anywhere in the IF and has done that for years and he hits better than Janish; top it off with the trading of nothing for him and I don't see the rub...:confused:

Carry on.

Bum

Bumstead
01-30-2012, 03:54 PM
That was one of the worst uses of hyperbole in the history of language.

Thanks for your contribution. :rolleyes: One more wasted post that helped move this thread to 12 pages...:laugh:

Bum

TRF
01-30-2012, 05:25 PM
He's better than Janish without a doubt

prove it.

I say they are the exact same player. Similar number of innings played, though Janish has gotten to his quicker. Prove in ANY WAY that Valdez is so much better you have to trade a LH reliever, something the Reds only have an abundance of THIS YEAR, and not locked up at all beyond 2012.

I say prove it KNOWING you can't.

Janish isn't a good player. Valdez isn't a good player. I know which one I'd prefer at SS fielding the last out in the 9th. I hope I never see either at the plate in the same situation.

You do not trade assets for Wilson freaking Valdez when you operate in the second smallest market in baseball. You expend cash only. Cash you can recoup. Talent takes longer.

This was a dumb, pointless trade.

RedsManRick
01-30-2012, 06:06 PM
Valdez is better (and clearly a better hitter) and knows his job and has no problem with that being his job. For those that want to continue to hold onto this belief that Janish is actually a MLB player, carry-on for another 11 pages. I will just be happy that he is done and that Dusty won't be able to play him an excessive amount in the coming season. War means nothing to me; I will continue to go by real stats and actually watching players (as opposed to stats created by people that don't want to watch players).

11 pages! Hilarious!

Bum

Unsupported assertions supported by more unsupported assertions. Hilarious! :laugh:

If people actually used evidence for their claims, it wouldn't take 11 pages...

Janish is a more or less replacement level player. So is Valdez. Why is this so hard to accept? Oh my bad, I forgot to look at "real stats" like batting average and fielding percentage and was too busy with spreadsheets in my mothers' basement to watch a real game. I mean, I've never watched a game because I'm so obsessed with making up fake stats that don't mean anything. Excuse me while I get off your lawn.

RedsManRick
01-30-2012, 06:17 PM
What did we trade? Jeremy Horst??? Who cares? He's better than Janish without a doubt. I still don't understand the attachment to Janish on this board. He's horrible and always has been. He pretty much just plays SS. I mean, seriously, Valdez can play well anywhere in the IF and has done that for years and he hits better than Janish; top it off with the trading of nothing for him and I don't see the rub...:confused:

Carry on.

Bum

Janish can only play SS? Don't confuse what a guy HAS done with what he can do. Janish has played both 2B and 3B and could do so if asked to. But here's the thing, guys that are really good defensively at SS are usually asked to play SS.

You continue to ignore the point everybody is making -- it's not that Janish is good. It's that Valdez is bad too.

Valdez is a career .243/.290/.330 hitter. Janish is a career .221/.289/.302 hitter. 30 whole points of slugging. That's 3 extra bases per month as a hitter. That's a small edge. Janish is a better defensive SS and despite your assertions can play 3B and 2B too. In terms of production, the two guys are virtually indistinguishable. But if it makes you warm and fuzzy to pretend otherwise, I guess everybody is entitled to his own opinion. Though I must say I'm curious, how much baseball have you seen Wilson Valdez play?

Ron Madden
01-30-2012, 06:28 PM
What did we trade? Jeremy Horst??? Who cares? He's better than Janish without a doubt. I still don't understand the attachment to Janish on this board. He's horrible and always has been. He pretty much just plays SS. I mean, seriously, Valdez can play well anywhere in the IF and has done that for years and he hits better than Janish; top it off with the trading of nothing for him and I don't see the rub...:confused:

Carry on.

Bum

BINGO!

PuffyPig
01-30-2012, 07:23 PM
You do not trade assets for Wilson freaking Valdez when you operate in the second smallest market in baseball.

We didn't.....

edabbs44
01-30-2012, 07:59 PM
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=80154&highlight=Cairo

Reds/Flyers Fan
01-30-2012, 09:28 PM
prove it.

I say they are the exact same player. Similar number of innings played, though Janish has gotten to his quicker. Prove in ANY WAY that Valdez is so much better you have to trade a LH reliever, something the Reds only have an abundance of THIS YEAR, and not locked up at all beyond 2012.

I say prove it KNOWING you can't.

Janish isn't a good player. Valdez isn't a good player. I know which one I'd prefer at SS fielding the last out in the 9th. I hope I never see either at the plate in the same situation.

You do not trade assets for Wilson freaking Valdez when you operate in the second smallest market in baseball. You expend cash only. Cash you can recoup. Talent takes longer.

This was a dumb, pointless trade.

The are not the exact same player. Valdez can play far more positions and better at the plate, particularly in clutch situations.

Paul Janish has to hit better and learn to play more positions to be as valuable to a club as Wilson Valdez.

westofyou
01-30-2012, 09:51 PM
Hand wringing over Utility infielders and guys slotted as third on the Loogy list for the BP

A RZ tradition marches on... Yawn when doth the games start?

Always Red
01-30-2012, 09:55 PM
Hand wringing over Utility infielders and guys slotted as third on the Loogy list for the BP

A RZ tradition marches on... Yawn when doth the games start?

One thing at a time, woy.

First, we need to hear that Adam Dunn is reporting in The Best Shape of His Life.

Then, the drama of whether or not ST games and stats count or not, for this player or the other.

I love the rituals of spring baseball. :D

dougdirt
01-30-2012, 09:57 PM
Oops.

edabbs44
01-30-2012, 10:00 PM
First, we need to hear that Adam Dunn is reporting in The Best Shape of His Life.

Check!


The Chicago Tribune reported Saturday that Dunn appeared "much leaner around his mid-section" at SoxFest this weekend. He's reportedly worked hard this offseason on strengthening his core.

ďI feel good," Dunn said (Tribune). "I donít know, I donít weigh myself every morning. But I feel good and still got a month to go (before spring training).Ē


http://www.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/22297882/34605810

traderumor
01-30-2012, 10:12 PM
Janish can only play SS? Don't confuse what a guy HAS done with what he can do. Janish has played both 2B and 3B and could do so if asked to. But here's the thing, guys that are really good defensively at SS are usually asked to play SS.

You continue to ignore the point everybody is making -- it's not that Janish is good. It's that Valdez is bad too.

Valdez is a career .243/.290/.330 hitter. Janish is a career .221/.289/.302 hitter. 30 whole points of slugging. That's 3 extra bases per month as a hitter. That's a small edge. Janish is a better defensive SS and despite your assertions can play 3B and 2B too. In terms of production, the two guys are virtually indistinguishable. But if it makes you warm and fuzzy to pretend otherwise, I guess everybody is entitled to his own opinion. Though I must say I'm curious, how much baseball have you seen Wilson Valdez play?Valdez is still a better pitcher. He's got that going for him.

RedsManRick
01-30-2012, 10:17 PM
The are not the exact same player. Valdez can play far more positions and better at the plate, particularly in clutch situations.

Paul Janish has to hit better and learn to play more positions to be as valuable to a club as Wilson Valdez.

Which positions does Valdez play that Janish can't? Because Janish can most definitely play 2B and 3B.

Ron Madden
01-30-2012, 10:58 PM
This trade doesn't bother me one way or the other.

What gets me is people keep saying Valdez is CLEARLY a better hitter than Janish is. Rick and others have posted the stats, the stats say that they are pretty much the same hitter.

westofyou
01-30-2012, 11:36 PM
This trade doesn't bother me one way or the other.

What gets me is people keep saying Valdez is CLEARLY a better hitter than Janish is. Rick and others have posted the stats, the stats say that they are pretty much the same hitter.

What is Valdez?

He's a guy who doesn't expect to start, he's a guy who likely does little things better, like going the other way, getting a bunt down, switching positions mid inning.

And he Is now with Ramon gone the defacto Latin Sage on the team

Ron Madden
01-30-2012, 11:48 PM
What is Valdez?

He's a guy who doesn't expect to start, he's a guy who likely does little things better, like going the other way, getting a bunt down, switching positions mid inning.

And he Is now with Ramon gone the defacto Latin Sage on the team


They still look like pretty much the same hitter to me...

cincrazy
01-31-2012, 01:54 AM
13 pages dedicated to a Jeremy Horst for Wilson Valdez trade. Only on Redszone. Love it :).

Ron Madden
01-31-2012, 03:39 AM
13 pages dedicated to a Jeremy Horst for Wilson Valdez trade. Only on Redszone. Love it :).


Yep 13 pages, and a fair number of those 13 pages are filled with folks complaining about this thread being so long. ;)

mth123
01-31-2012, 04:01 AM
Yep 13 pages, and a fair number of those 13 pages are filled with folks complaining about this thread being so long. ;)

No kidding. There are lots of threads that others post in that I can't imagine why anyone cares, but I don't make it my mission to mock people for talking about it.

If a topic doesn't interest some one, they should merely move on and let the others discuss the topic that they wish to discuss.

This team is almost set. Janish vs. Valdez vs. Frazier vs. Valaika vs. Harris is probably one of the bigger decisions that the team will be making in Spring Training. Seems fairly topical IMO.

edabbs44
01-31-2012, 07:07 AM
They still look like pretty much the same hitter to me...

Not when you look beyond the career line on B-R. After watching Janish completely flop last season the Reds brass is probably having issues with him being the safety net for someone with hardly any track record.

mattfeet
01-31-2012, 07:21 AM
So Valdez makes how many shortstops that BPhil has played with now?

TRF
01-31-2012, 09:15 AM
Not when you look beyond the career line on B-R. After watching Janish completely flop last season the Reds brass is probably having issues with him being the safety net for someone with hardly any track record.

They can also look to the year before and be even more confused. Because I'll take that year from my backup SS every time.

westofyou
01-31-2012, 09:22 AM
They can also look to the year before and be even more confused. Because I'll take that year from my backup SS every time.

I sure wouldn't, unless of course it was 1984, historically bad season at the plate for Janish, the fact he got that many PA's says more about the Reds other choices than it does about his skill set.




SEASON
1980-2011
SS
AT BATS BETWEEN 250 AND 350

OBA YEAR OBA AB
1 Andujar Cedeno 1996 .247 335
T2 Onix Concepcion 1985 .255 314
T2 Kiko Garcia 1980 .255 311
4 Ronny Cedeno 2009 .256 341
5 Spike Owen 1983 .257 306
6 Paul Janish 2011 .259 336
7 Alfredo Griffin 1988 .259 316
8 Jose Oquendo 1983 .260 328
9 Tripp Cromer 1995 .261 345
10 Benji Gil 1997 .263 317

RUNS CREATED/GAME YEAR RC/G AB
1 Jose Oquendo 1983 1.73 328
2 Kiko Garcia 1980 1.81 311
3 Onix Concepcion 1985 1.87 314
4 Andujar Cedeno 1996 2.17 335
5 Alfredo Griffin 1988 2.18 316
6 Paul Janish 2011 2.21 336
7 Spike Owen 1983 2.37 306
8 Pat Meares 1993 2.39 346
9 Walt Weiss 1992 2.44 316
10 Tripp Cromer 1995 2.45 345

SLG YEAR SLG AB
1 Kiko Garcia 1980 .235 311
2 Walt Weiss 1992 .241 316
3 Wayne Tolleson 1987 .241 349
4 Jose Oquendo 1983 .244 328
5 Onix Concepcion 1985 .245 314
6 Alfredo Griffin 1988 .253 316
7 Paul Janish 2011 .262 336
8 Rafael Belliard 1986 .262 309
9 Casey Candaele 1992 .266 320
10 Spike Owen 1983 .271 306

TRF
01-31-2012, 09:23 AM
I sure wouldn't, unless of course it was 1984, historically bad season at the plate for Janish, the fact he got that many PA's says more about the Reds other choices than it does about his skill set.




SEASON
1980-2011
SS
AT BATS BETWEEN 250 AND 350

OBA YEAR OBA AB
1 Andujar Cedeno 1996 .247 335
T2 Onix Concepcion 1985 .255 314
T2 Kiko Garcia 1980 .255 311
4 Ronny Cedeno 2009 .256 341
5 Spike Owen 1983 .257 306
6 Paul Janish 2011 .259 336
7 Alfredo Griffin 1988 .259 316
8 Jose Oquendo 1983 .260 328
9 Tripp Cromer 1995 .261 345
10 Benji Gil 1997 .263 317

RUNS CREATED/GAME YEAR RC/G AB
1 Jose Oquendo 1983 1.73 328
2 Kiko Garcia 1980 1.81 311
3 Onix Concepcion 1985 1.87 314
4 Andujar Cedeno 1996 2.17 335
5 Alfredo Griffin 1988 2.18 316
6 Paul Janish 2011 2.21 336
7 Spike Owen 1983 2.37 306
8 Pat Meares 1993 2.39 346
9 Walt Weiss 1992 2.44 316
10 Tripp Cromer 1995 2.45 345

SLG YEAR SLG AB
1 Kiko Garcia 1980 .235 311
2 Walt Weiss 1992 .241 316
3 Wayne Tolleson 1987 .241 349
4 Jose Oquendo 1983 .244 328
5 Onix Concepcion 1985 .245 314
6 Alfredo Griffin 1988 .253 316
7 Paul Janish 2011 .262 336
8 Rafael Belliard 1986 .262 309
9 Casey Candaele 1992 .266 320
10 Spike Owen 1983 .271 306



I was referring to 2010, the year he had the .730ish OPS

westofyou
01-31-2012, 09:30 AM
I was referring to 2010, the year he had the .730ish OPS

If that's his ceiling than I'm looking for a bigger house

TRF
01-31-2012, 09:40 AM
If that's his ceiling than I'm looking for a bigger house

I don't have the software to pull numbers the way you do. BTW, what do you use?

Here is a link to espn's 2010 stats. Yes, we all know what Janish did last year. I think some are forgetting what he did the year before. sorted by AB's, minimum 200 PA's

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/year/2010/position/ss/sort/atBats/minpa/200

look that list over.

he was 9th in OPS at SS. Yes, he had exactly 200 AB's, but as a backup SS, how many SHOULD he get. You may want a larger house, but it doesn't exist.

In 2010, offensively, Paul Janish was one of the best backup SS's in baseball. I can't believe I just typed that, but it's true. He was also one of the best defensive SS's in baseball period.

And in 2011, his offense was putrid. Go figure.

Bumstead
01-31-2012, 09:47 AM
Which positions does Valdez play that Janish can't? Because Janish can most definitely play 2B and 3B.

Janish has played 33 games (19 starts) at 2B/3B in his career. Certainly too small a sample size for you to say one way or the other how good he can be in a utility role at those positions. Continue to mock me if you will. We traded nothing for a better utility player and you have an attachment to probably the worst MLB baseball player that had 350 PA's last season. One fluke season does not a player make.

TRF: don't bore me with your "prove it" statement. I have been to baseball-reference.com and looked at the stats and I have actually objectively watched both players play baseball. Valdez is better; he's not great, he's not good, but he knows his role and he can certainly fill that role for this team better than Janish can.

Bum

REDREAD
01-31-2012, 09:50 AM
They still look like pretty much the same hitter to me...

Going by career numbers, that's a solid point.
I think last years Janish is the "real" Janish.. what would should expect in 2012. If others disagree, I can understand.

But if we go under the assumption that the rest of the league has figured out how to render Janish totally hapless (521 OPS, like last year), then it makes sense to add another SS. Valdez is no one's dream SS, but he's an upgrade to a 521 OPS SS who is average at best defensively (My opinion of Janish, which I think Walt shares).

Considering what we paid for Renturia last year, paying around 900k ish for Valdez is not an excessive expenditure. It's probably a better fit for us than Theriot.

TRF
01-31-2012, 09:55 AM
Janish has played 33 games (19 starts) at 2B/3B in his career. Certainly too small a sample size for you to say one way or the other how good he can be in a utility role at those positions. Continue to mock me if you will. We traded nothing for a better utility player and you have an attachment to probably the worst MLB baseball player that had 350 PA's last season. One fluke season does not a player make.

TRF: don't bore me with your "prove it" statement. I have been to baseball-reference.com and looked at the stats and I have actually objectively watched both players play baseball. Valdez is better; he's not great, he's not good, but he knows his role and he can certainly fill that role for this team better than Janish can.

Bum

I looked too. the internets are fun.

Valdez isn't better. He's the same. Just older. They both had seasons where it was .600 and in the .500's. Valdez low OPS season is .511.

Edit: Valdez never had a .700+ OPS season. Not even close to one really.

yeah, he's fantastic.

westofyou
01-31-2012, 09:57 AM
I don't have the software to pull numbers the way you do. BTW, what do you use?

Here is a link to espn's 2010 stats. Yes, we all know what Janish did last year. I think some are forgetting what he did the year before. sorted by AB's, minimum 200 PA's

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/year/2010/position/ss/sort/atBats/minpa/200

look that list over.

he was 9th in OPS at SS. Yes, he had exactly 200 AB's, but as a backup SS, how many SHOULD he get. You may want a larger house, but it doesn't exist.

In 2010, offensively, Paul Janish was one of the best backup SS's in baseball. I can't believe I just typed that, but it's true. He was also one of the best defensive SS's in baseball period.

And in 2011, his offense was putrid. Go figure.
http://www.baseball-encyclopedia.com/

TRF
01-31-2012, 10:00 AM
Going by career numbers, that's a solid point.
I think last years Janish is the "real" Janish.. what would should expect in 2012. If others disagree, I can understand.

But if we go under the assumption that the rest of the league has figured out how to render Janish totally hapless (521 OPS, like last year), then it makes sense to add another SS. Valdez is no one's dream SS, but he's an upgrade to a 521 OPS SS who is average at best defensively (My opinion of Janish, which I think Walt shares).

Considering what we paid for Renturia last year, paying around 900k ish for Valdez is not an excessive expenditure. It's probably a better fit for us than Theriot.

Considering Valdez has actually had a WORSE season than Janish last year, I think that the real Janish can easily be determined by looking at the career stats page for Wilson Valdez. Actually, I looked at the stats wrong. Valdez has NEVER had a season as good as Janish in 2010. He's never come within 50 points of that OPS. So, actually, Janish has the higher ceiling. He probably reached it in 2010. I see Janish as a likely .640ish OPS backup next year. But he could get to .700, because he has gotten there.

Valdez? never.

kaldaniels
01-31-2012, 10:16 AM
Why do I get the feeling that had Horst simply been released it would have slipped through the cracks of Redszone relatively unnoticed?

nate
01-31-2012, 10:24 AM
Wilson Valdez career
PA: 1032
wOBA: .272
WAR: 1.6

Paul Janish career
PA: 975
wOBA: .266
WAR: 1.2

They are rather similar.

To me, Janish is kind of a GGLIG (Good Glove Late Inning Guy) and I'm OK with that on the roster. From a roster point of view, I don't see the need for Janish and Valdez.

Bumstead
01-31-2012, 10:26 AM
I looked too. the internets are fun.

Valdez isn't better. He's the same. Just older. They both had seasons where it was .600 and in the .500's. Valdez low OPS season is .511.

Edit: Valdez never had a .700+ OPS season. Not even close to one really.

yeah, he's fantastic.

Yes...and reading is hard...I said Valdez wasn't even good...but the last 2 years Valdez' OPS has been 660-ish and 630-ish...Janish had the fluke season and every other season has been 601 or worse. Why are you so attached anyway? Janish is terrible. Just career numbers make Valdez 30 points better...can you read that? Plus Valdez plays more than one position; I know we are ignoring that because we all just "ass-u-me" that Janish can play those other positions even though he hasn't...

I should quit posting, but I find this all pretty entertaining. Paul Janish? lol

Bum

CySeymour
01-31-2012, 10:27 AM
Why do I get the feeling that had Horst simply been released it would have slipped through the cracks of Redszone relatively unnoticed?

That time leading up to Spring Training gets awfully boring...gotta have SOMETHING to talk about :laugh:

Ron Madden
01-31-2012, 10:31 AM
Like I've said a few times earlier in this thread I'm not worried about losing Horst or how much Valdez will be paid.

I really don't care one way or the other about this trade, I'm not gonna lose sleep over it.

All I'm sayin' is I disagree with those who claim Valdez is clearly a better hitter than Janish.

When the stats of both players are that close neither one of them is clearly the better hitter. That's all I'm sayin'.

TRF
01-31-2012, 10:34 AM
Yes...and reading is hard...I said Valdez wasn't even good...but the last 2 years Valdez' OPS has been 660-ish and 630-ish...Janish had the fluke season and every other season has been 601 or worse. Why are you so attached anyway? Janish is terrible. Just career numbers make Valdez 30 points better...can you read that? Plus Valdez plays more than one position; I know we are ignoring that because we all just "ass-u-me" that Janish can play those other positions even though he hasn't...

I should quit posting, but I find this all pretty entertaining. Paul Janish? lol

Bum

Reading is hard. I've said they are both not good. In fact, I've said both are bad.

So if they are both bad, and in fact very similar as nate clearly pointed out, why trade for him.

You seem to think this is about Janish. It isn't. It's about Valdez. and really about Horst.

Horst's minor league K/9 was 8.5. That isn't bad. The reds invested development time and salary in a young LH reliever.

And the return is Wilson freaking Valdez? That is a poor allocation of resources. Especially for a small market team.

Bumstead
01-31-2012, 11:03 AM
Reading is hard. I've said they are both not good. In fact, I've said both are bad.

So if they are both bad, and in fact very similar as nate clearly pointed out, why trade for him.

You seem to think this is about Janish. It isn't. It's about Valdez. and really about Horst.

Horst's minor league K/9 was 8.5. That isn't bad. The reds invested development time and salary in a young LH reliever.

And the return is Wilson freaking Valdez? That is a poor allocation of resources. Especially for a small market team.

Horst is a Loogy who was organizational depth at best. The Reds traded nothing. Horst was taking up a 40-man roster slot for no good reason. He's NOT young anymore and he's not particularly good, certainly nothing special. Loogy's are a dime a dozen. There is no point in being caught up on one that hasn't made a much of a dent in MLB at age 26...

I seem to think this is funny regardless of whether it's about Janish or Horst.

Bum

TRF
01-31-2012, 11:13 AM
Horst is a Loogy who was organizational depth at best. The Reds traded nothing. Horst was taking up a 40-man roster slot for no good reason. He's NOT young anymore and he's not particularly good, certainly nothing special. Loogy's are a dime a dozen. There is no point in being caught up on one that hasn't made a much of a dent in MLB at age 26...

I seem to think this is funny regardless of whether it's about Janish or Horst.

Bum

Yes, you've made that clear, that you think it is funny and all.

IslandRed
01-31-2012, 11:15 AM
To me, Janish is kind of a GGLIG (Good Glove Late Inning Guy) and I'm OK with that on the roster. From a roster point of view, I don't see the need for Janish and Valdez.

To me, debating which is better is kind of beside the point. The issue is that Cozart-Janish-nothing wasn't an acceptable shortstop depth chart for a team that's supposedly trying, thus the acquisition of another guy who can play quality shortstop. They'll keep one on the bench and stash the other in Triple-A (doesn't matter much to me which is which), and be one body farther away from the abyss of playing a non-shortstop at shortstop (which is important to me, although not everyone agrees) or calling up some kid who has no business being in the major leagues yet. Just flipping depth in one spot for depth in a thinner spot. That's all. No big deal.

Bumstead
01-31-2012, 11:22 AM
Yes, you've made that clear, that you think it is funny and all.

I just don't see how it's a big deal...you and a couple of others are losing sleep ranting about how terrible it is. We gave up nothing for a UT infielder who is a little better, albeit not good, than Janish. We have a Rookie SS. It seems like a logical move to me, if not a non-event. Nobody good gets blocked and nobody good was lost. What's the rub?

Bum

TRF
01-31-2012, 11:37 AM
I just don't see how it's a big deal...you and a couple of others are losing sleep ranting about how terrible it is. We gave up nothing for a UT infielder who is a little better, albeit not good, than Janish. We have a Rookie SS. It seems like a logical move to me, if not a non-event. Nobody good gets blocked and nobody good was lost. What's the rub?

Bum

a.) I'm not losing sleep, but thanks for the concern. 2.) I don't like seeing resources wasted. I think WJ had three very fine transactions, and 2 clunkers. this was one of the clunkers. The Reds have 7 guys on the 40 man roster that can man SS in a pinch if Janish were the primary backup. If all Valdez cost was cash, then I might not mind. In reliever land, 26-27 is actually still young. Most of the best relievers are over 30.

I posted a transaction about Cleveland buying a player from TB. THAT is how you build a club in a mid or small market. All Cleveland loses in the deal is cash. They bought a young power hitting OF. The Reds traded for an aging no hit MI.

If you cannot get how that is just the wrong thing to do, then I guess you just don't get it. I am glad you think it's funny though.

It isn't that I think Valdez will hamstring the budget. It's that he isn't necessary. period. It's that he'll get starts and suck, like he has ALWAYS sucked. It's that Bill Bray has a history of injuries that cause him to miss significant amounts of time. It's that Marshall is not a LOOGY. So if Bray goes down... Who do the Reds have as a LH reliever?

No One. Only Chapman, Bray and Marshall are LH. Chapman is a starter right now. There are no LH's on this tree you say they grow on.

So, did the Reds trade from depth here? no. Had it been Jordan Smith or Carlos Fisher, THOSE guys grow on trees.

Bumstead
01-31-2012, 11:44 AM
If you cannot get how that is just the wrong thing to do, then I guess you just don't get it. I am glad you think it's funny though.

Actually, it's not that I don't get IT, it's that I disagree with you. The scouts and GM who know this club inside and out saw zero future for Horst and somehow got something for him that could be useful or more useful than what they have. I am enjoying the rants however. I thought you saved these types of rants just for Drew Stubbs! :p

Bum

TRF
01-31-2012, 11:47 AM
Actually, it's not that I don't get IT, it's that I disagree with you. The scouts and GM who know this club inside and out saw zero future for Horst and somehow got something for him that could be useful or more useful than what they have. I am enjoying the rants however. I thought you saved these types of rants just for Drew Stubbs! :p

Bum

Actually, I like Stubbs now.

Remember, these were the same scouts and GM that thought Willy Taveras was worth a 2 year deal.

Bumstead
01-31-2012, 11:54 AM
Actually, I like Stubbs now.

Remember, these were the same scouts and GM that thought Willy Taveras was worth a 2 year deal.

Yeah, well, I doubt Valdez can do that kind of damage...I think Jockety is doing a fine job. Looking forward to this year with more optimism than any year I can remember in a long time.

As to Stubbs, I know, just ribbing you a bit. He's my favorite player on the Reds. Yeah, I know he has flaws.

Bum

TRF
01-31-2012, 12:02 PM
I think Jocketty has done a fine job... this year. I think he coasted last offseason. I think the Ludwick signing was a mistake, especially since Canzler only cost cash. But I prefer youth to aging vets that are really one year wonders.

And I think we'll see Valdez far more than anyone wants to.

I'm optimistic for this season. Walt addressed exactly what I wanted him to. Offense had it's black holes, but most of that is fixed in house, and with a little health. Pitching was the problem. Now it isn't.

But just because I like most of his moves doesn't mean I can't disagree with him when he is wrong. I disagreed, vehemently, on Taveras, and I think he weakened the depth in the bullpen with this trade. It's a bad trade.

lollipopcurve
01-31-2012, 12:36 PM
It's a bad trade.

In your opinion. And only time will tell if you're right.

TRF
01-31-2012, 12:38 PM
true.

i am right though. :)

REDREAD
01-31-2012, 01:00 PM
Considering Valdez has actually had a WORSE season than Janish last year.

By what measure?
Last year.

Valdez OPSed 634
Janish 521

If Janish was a gold glove SS, maybe that makes up for 110 points of OPS, but Janish is way overrated defensively.

Janish's bat is so awful that even if he was a true gold glove SS, he'd have limited value. Janish is Rafeal Belliard without the glove.

traderumor
01-31-2012, 01:11 PM
Actually, I like Stubbs now.

Remember, these were the same scouts and GM that thought Willy Taveras was worth a 2 year deal.Scouting is an inexact art and science. I know, I know, everyone except Jocketty and Jamie Quirk knew that Taveras was a dud.

It is ironic that you mention how the scouts missed one in the same post that you missed it on Stubbs.

cincrazy
01-31-2012, 01:19 PM
No kidding. There are lots of threads that others post in that I can't imagine why anyone cares, but I don't make it my mission to mock people for talking about it.

If a topic doesn't interest some one, they should merely move on and let the others discuss the topic that they wish to discuss.

This team is almost set. Janish vs. Valdez vs. Frazier vs. Valaika vs. Harris is probably one of the bigger decisions that the team will be making in Spring Training. Seems fairly topical IMO.

Holy moly Batman. Talk about taking a light hearted comment and making it something more than it is.

TRF
01-31-2012, 02:05 PM
By what measure?
Last year.

Valdez OPSed 634
Janish 521

If Janish was a gold glove SS, maybe that makes up for 110 points of OPS, but Janish is way overrated defensively.

Janish's bat is so awful that even if he was a true gold glove SS, he'd have limited value. Janish is Rafeal Belliard without the glove.

I worded that poorly. I meant he's had a worse season in his career than Janish's last season.

TRF
01-31-2012, 02:12 PM
Scouting is an inexact art and science. I know, I know, everyone except Jocketty and Jamie Quirk knew that Taveras was a dud.

It is ironic that you mention how the scouts missed one in the same post that you missed it on Stubbs.

thppt.

What I came to see about Stubbs was the Reds development team got him all wrong. They still have him wrong. He ain't a leadoff hitter.

REDREAD
01-31-2012, 02:49 PM
I worded that poorly. I meant he's had a worse season in his career than Janish's last season.

Ok, fair point. Valdez might suck badly next year, I agree with that.

dabvu2498
01-31-2012, 02:58 PM
It's that Bill Bray has a history of injuries that cause him to miss significant amounts of time. It's that Marshall is not a LOOGY. So if Bray goes down... Who do the Reds have as a LH reliever?

No One. Only Chapman, Bray and Marshall are LH. Chapman is a starter right now. There are no LH's on this tree you say they grow on.

So, did the Reds trade from depth here? no. Had it been Jordan Smith or Carlos Fisher, THOSE guys grow on trees.

Clay Zavada, Ron Mahay and Donnie Joseph say hello!!!

TRF
01-31-2012, 02:59 PM
Ok, fair point. Valdez might suck badly next year, I agree with that.

hmm.

It really isn't might. BOTH players will LIKELY suck badly next year. BOTH players are.. well, bad.

I do not understand why you trade from a weakness, LH relief pitching for an area in which you have depth, MI. 9 MI's on the 40 man roster. And now we have 10.

Cozart
Phillips
Janish
Valaika
Frazier
Cairo (well, kinda)
Gregorious
Negron
Rodriguez

traderumor
01-31-2012, 04:24 PM
thppt.

What I came to see about Stubbs was the Reds development team got him all wrong. They still have him wrong. He ain't a leadoff hitter.I don't think they want him there anymore than you or I do. Ideally, you bat him 6-7 and let him chase flyballs.

But, since they have used a cast of thousands and probably haven't had a legit leadoff hitter since Bip Roberts, which this is the 20th anniversary of his tenure, he gets the short straw occasionally. Heck, I'm replaying the 2010 season in Strat and get reminded that OCab was used there quite a bit that season. Maybe its the curse of Pete put on by Faye Vincent?

edabbs44
01-31-2012, 06:36 PM
They can also look to the year before and be even more confused. Because I'll take that year from my backup SS every time.

Chris Dickerson provided similar false hope for a few on here as well.

PuffyPig
01-31-2012, 07:51 PM
hmm.

It really isn't might. BOTH players will LIKELY suck badly next year. BOTH players are.. well, bad.

I do not understand why you trade from a weakness, LH relief pitching for an area in which you have depth, MI. 9 MI's on the 40 man roster. And now we have 10.

Cozart
Phillips
Janish
Valaika
Frazier
Cairo (well, kinda)
Gregorious
Negron
Rodriguez

Only two of those would likely play SS at the major league level in 2012.

You seem to be ignoring that point.

mth123
01-31-2012, 08:00 PM
1. Horst was already a goner IMO. Getting something for him was a nice move. He'd already been removed from the 40 man roster and his place in AAA was given to Mahay and Zavada. Joseph, Manno, Thurman and Webb will also be around in AAA and AA. I'm guessing Horst would have been released by the end of Spring or dealt for future considerations or some such nonsense.

2. If Cozart stays healthy and only needs someone to play a couple times a month to let him rest a bit, any of 6 or 7 guys would be an adequate back-up. If Cozart goes down though, most of those guys are eliminated because they don't have the defensive chops to play SS for that much extended playing time. That would leave Janish as basically a full-time SS until the end of the season because we already know that others either aren't ready (Didi) or can't play enough defense to start often enough to make Janish a part-timer.

3. We've already seen that Janish is a much better player on a part time basis than he is on a full time basis. IMO, this trade was to get some one who could split time with Janish should Cozart be unavaialble for an extended period. That move may just make Janish more like 2010 Janish than 2011 Janish. If Janish plays every day, 2011 Janish is almost a guarantee.

Valdez is no star, but I think that's a fair return for a guy who was basically toast as far as his future with the Reds was concerned.

IslandRed
01-31-2012, 08:10 PM
1. Horst was already a goner IMO. Getting something for him was a nice move. He'd already been removed from the 40 man roster and his place in AAA was given to Mahay and Zavada. Joseph, Manno and Webb will also be around in AAA and AA. I'm guessing Horst would have been released by the end of Spring or dealt for future considerations or some such nonsense.

2. If Cozart stays healthy and only needs someone to play a couple times a month to let him rest a bit, any of 6 or 7 guys would be an adequate back-up. If Cozart goes down though, most of those guys are eliminated because they don't have the defensive chops to play SS for that much extended playing time. That would leave Janish as basically a full-time SS until the end of the season because we already know that others either aren't ready (Didi) or can't play enough defense to start often enough to make Janish a part-timer.

3. We've already seen that Janish is a much better player on a part time basis than he is on a full time basis. IMO, this trade was to get some one who could split time with Janish should Cozart be unavaialble for an extended period. That move may just make Janish more like 2010 Janish than 2011 Janish. If Janish plays every day, 2011 Janish is almost a guarantee.

Valdez is no star, but I think that's a fair return for a guy who was basically toast as far as his future with the Reds was concerned.

Seconded.

Reasonable people can disagree on player value, so if TRF thought Horst was worthy of more consideration, that's cool. And I can go along with his concept of buying fringe guys instead of trading for them. But that presumes the team has the cash, and the way Jocketty's been structuring contracts, it's clear he is having to be very creative to do everything he wants to do and stay within budget. My guess is that Jocketty was basically out of money and even the free-agent versions of Wilson Valdez would have put him over budget. So he had to use a different resource to pry loose a viable shortstop he could afford. It goes like that sometimes.

dougdirt
01-31-2012, 08:35 PM
The Reds weren't going to be releasing Jeremy Horst. They clearly thought enough of him to call him up last year. He has had outstanding numbers for years.

mth123
01-31-2012, 09:20 PM
The Reds weren't going to be releasing Jeremy Horst. They clearly thought enough of him to call him up last year. He has had outstanding numbers for years.

Then why remove him from the 40 man when guys like Jordan Smith, Chris Valaika and Kris Negron could have been chosen? Why sign Mahay and Zavada? I thought more of Horst as well, but its pretty clear the Reds didn't like what hey saw, because those guys they kept don't really deserve a 40 man spot, yet they chose Horst to DFA.

PuffyPig
02-01-2012, 07:40 AM
The Reds weren't going to be releasing Jeremy Horst. They clearly thought enough of him to call him up last year. He has had outstanding numbers for years.

He was placed on waivers once, so they thought so little of him that they risked losing him.

lollipopcurve
02-01-2012, 08:44 AM
The Reds weren't going to be releasing Jeremy Horst.

Right -- they would have been re-releasing him. They'd already "released" him to the first team willing to cough up $50,000. Somehow no one bit.

traderumor
02-01-2012, 09:37 AM
The Reds weren't going to be releasing Jeremy Horst. They clearly thought enough of him to call him up last year. He has had outstanding numbers for years.I imagine a LOOGY that was getting hit hard by lefties at the MLB level made him an afterthought. If I remember right, his call up was due to injuries and other guys lack of performance. Threw him at the wall to see if he could stick, and he didn't.

TRF
02-01-2012, 09:54 AM
yeah, because rookies always come up, and have lights out debuts.

I bet he makes PHI's opening day roster. And I bet he has more value to them than Valdez will to the Reds.

Only two of those would likely play SS at the major league level in 2012.

You seem to be ignoring that point.

I count 5. On a limited, part time basis? 5. And isn't that what we are talking about. So if Valdez is never acquired, you know, since the Reds already have him in Janish, then if Janish or Cozart go down, I count 5 guys that COULD play SS. If Janish AND Cozart go down, does anyone really want to see Wilson Valdez for 400 AB's?

And that is beside the point. how many LH relievers are on the 40 man right now, and where does the 40 man roster stand? Is it full?

EDIT: It's full. and contains just 2 LH relievers.

That is dealing from a weakness to fill an area with depth. That makes this a bad transaction on it's own. Even if you think Horst is a LOOGY at best, now the Reds don't have one to spare. Guess it is a good thing Bray has no injury history where he has missed significant time in his career.

wait...

dabvu2498
02-01-2012, 10:24 AM
Clay Zavada replaces Horst and can be added to the 40 man roster easy enough.

lollipopcurve
02-01-2012, 10:32 AM
Clay Zavada replaces Horst and can be added to the 40 man roster easy enough.

And if he can't, Ron Mahay can. And if he can't, maybe Wilkens de la Rosa can.

And if Chapman can't start, I think he might be able to help replace the great Horst too.

Puffy
02-01-2012, 10:37 AM
yeah, because rookies always come up, and have lights out debuts.

I bet he makes PHI's opening day roster. And I bet he has more value to them than Valdez will to the Reds.




I'll take that bet.

TRF
02-01-2012, 10:39 AM
No, Zavada and Mahay cannot be added easily enough. the 40 man is full, so someone would have to be dropped. Now if it were a catastrophic injury, sure. But Ludwick hasn't even been added to the 40 man. There isn't any wiggle room.

I'm not saying Horst was great. I'm saying there are NO LH RELIEVERS on the 40 man roster past Marshall and Bray. And Bray seems to be hurt every other year. I'm saying Jocketty dealt from an area of weakness for an area with depth, especially when you consider he has no open spots on the 40 man roster. He's only got 4 OF's on the 40 man, I doubt he drops any of them.

TRF
02-01-2012, 10:40 AM
I'll take that bet.

bring it.

IslandRed
02-01-2012, 12:48 PM
No, Zavada and Mahay cannot be added easily enough. the 40 man is full, so someone would have to be dropped. ...

I'm not saying Horst was great. I'm saying there are NO LH RELIEVERS on the 40 man roster past Marshall and Bray.

Horst wasn't on the 40 either at the time of the trade, so what was the difference between him and the other guys in that regard?

HokieRed
02-01-2012, 01:03 PM
Frankly I think they just did Horst a favor. On our chart, he's behind at least Marshall and Bray as well as Chapman. They gave him a chance to make a 25 man roster instead of sitting the year in AAA. As to wiggle room, Chris Valaika and Kris Negron look pretty much like guys who could be removed at any time for an appropriate addition.

kaldaniels
02-01-2012, 01:33 PM
Whether or not you liked or disliked the trade, do you guys really think this was a significant transaction?

TRF
02-01-2012, 01:54 PM
Horst wasn't on the 40 either at the time of the trade, so what was the difference between him and the other guys in that regard?

I thought he finished the year on the 40 man. But hell, last week I thought he was Ondrusek, so...

dabvu2498
02-01-2012, 03:00 PM
Frankly I think they just did Horst a favor. On our chart, he's behind at least Marshall and Bray as well as Chapman. They gave him a chance to make a 25 man roster instead of sitting the year in AAA. As to wiggle room, Chris Valaika and Kris Negron look pretty much like guys who could be removed at any time for an appropriate addition.

Jordan Smith also comes to mind.

mth123
02-01-2012, 08:17 PM
No, Zavada and Mahay cannot be added easily enough. the 40 man is full, so someone would have to be dropped. Now if it were a catastrophic injury, sure. But Ludwick hasn't even been added to the 40 man. There isn't any wiggle room.

I'm not saying Horst was great. I'm saying there are NO LH RELIEVERS on the 40 man roster past Marshall and Bray. And Bray seems to be hurt every other year. I'm saying Jocketty dealt from an area of weakness for an area with depth, especially when you consider he has no open spots on the 40 man roster. He's only got 4 OF's on the 40 man, I doubt he drops any of them.

Not getting the logic here. Horst was dropped from the 40 man long before he was traded. Wouldn't he have the same problem being added back that Mahay or Zavada would? Even with Horst, the 40 man is full and Marshall and Bray are the only lefty relievers. The rest of the depth is not on the 40 man and Horst was well down the list.

mth123
02-01-2012, 08:19 PM
I thought he finished the year on the 40 man. But hell, last week I thought he was Ondrusek, so...

He did, but he was DFA'd before the winter meetings and no one wanted him. Not only that, he was DFA'd instead of totally flushable guys like Negron, Valaika, Smith and Fisher. The Reds must have really thought very little of Horst if they kept those guys ahead of him.