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Sabo Fan
01-27-2012, 09:59 PM
Per Rotoworld:


Jim Duquette of MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM reports that the Cardinals and Roy Oswalt are close to an agreement.


So that's pretty much worst-case scenario.

Phhhl
01-27-2012, 10:04 PM
Jeez. Every friggin year they jump on a player the Reds should have a LOT more interest in. Sickening.

Sabo Fan
01-27-2012, 10:11 PM
A bit more detail:


The specifics of the offer aren't known, but Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported this week that the Cardinals made an offer to Oswalt earlier this winter "approaching $5 million." According to Duquette, the Red Sox, Astros and Rangers remain in the mix. The Astros would be a weird landing spot considering that the alternatives are all expected to contend, but the veteran right-hander was originally drafted by the club in 1996 and spent the first 10 years of his major-league career there. For what it's worth, Michael Silverman of the Boston Globe hears that Oswalt will not make a decision this week regarding where he'll sign. Stay tuned.

VR
01-27-2012, 10:53 PM
this is when I sigh and say /thank God Dave Duncan retired

Captain Hook
01-27-2012, 10:58 PM
this is when I sigh and say /thank God Dave Duncan retired

I'd feel better because of this if the Cards were signing someone that once was good but has been garbage lately but Oswalt will probably be good with or without Duncan.:thumbdown:

mdccclxix
01-27-2012, 11:40 PM
Carpenter
Wainwright
Garcia
Lohse
Westbrook/Oswalt?

IDK

Still lot's of questions on that rotation. Carp's older, TJ for Wain, Lohse is Lohse, I'm still thinking Garcia will wakeup and NOT be a #2, Westbrook is bad, Oswalt is hopefully not healthy...

Tom Servo
01-27-2012, 11:46 PM
No god please no.

Brutus
01-28-2012, 12:03 AM
Jeez. Every friggin year they jump on a player the Reds should have a LOT more interest in. Sickening.

Why should the Reds have a lot of interest in Oswalt? The rotation is pretty well set IMHO.

Arroyo is the only guy I'd rather have Oswalt over going forward, and for the money they're paying Arroyo, that obviously wasn't gonna happen.

Phhhl
01-28-2012, 12:06 AM
Don't say you're going "all in" and basically reject a pitcher who is something like 24-2 in his career against you. Whatever his numbers might have been in your favor, double them by what he he is likely to do to you now. They are reportedly going to get Oswalt for around $5 mil.

I love what the team is trying to do this winter. But, don't even try to say you are "all in" and stand around and watch something like this happen. I have a problem with people that keep saying that. As far as I am concerned, we are not done yet if we are truly "all in".

dougdirt
01-28-2012, 12:08 AM
Don't say you're going "all in" and basically reject a pitcher who is something like 24-2 in his career against you. Whatever his numbers might have been in your favor, double them by what he he is likely to do to you now. They are reportedly going to get Oswalt for around $5 mil.

I love what the team is trying to do this winter. But, don't even try to say you are "all in" and stand around and watch something like this happen. I have a problem with people that keep saying that. As far as I am concerned, we are not done yet if we are truly "all in".

So do you propose we simply just cut Arroyo then, because he is the only pitcher Oswalt seems to surely outpitch moving forward?

Brutus
01-28-2012, 12:09 AM
Don't say you're going "all in" and basically reject a pitcher who is something like 24-2 in his career against you. Whatever his numbers might have been in your favor, double them by what he he is likely to do to you now. They are reportedly going to get Oswalt for around $5 mil.

I love what the team is trying to do this winter. But, don't even try to say you are "all in" and stand around and watch something like this happen. I have a problem with people that keep saying that. As far as I am concerned, we are not done yet if we are truly "all in".

Going all in doesn't mean the Reds should break the bank for a 34-year old pitcher who only pitched 139 innings last year and saw a pretty big drop in velocity.

To be honest, I think he'll be a serviceable pitcher this year but I actually don't believe he'll be much (if any) better than what the Reds have.

Danny Serafini
01-28-2012, 12:14 AM
Don't say you're going "all in" and basically reject a pitcher who is something like 24-2 in his career against you. Whatever his numbers might have been in your favor, double them by what he he is likely to do to you now.

Here's his last four starts against the Reds:

7IP, 4ER
5IP, 4ER
7IP, 3ER
5IP, 6ER

Those games were in 2009-10, and the Reds won all four. He may have owned the team in the mid '00s, but that isn't relevant any more.

Phhhl
01-28-2012, 12:15 AM
I hope you guys are right.

WVPacman
01-28-2012, 12:26 AM
Lord I thought we was rid of this guy!! You watch and see he will pitch ten times better just b/c its with the Cards.

PuffyPig
01-28-2012, 12:41 AM
In 2011:

Francis 2.6 WAR
Oswalt 2.5 WAR

Kc61
01-28-2012, 01:03 AM
Oswalt is capable of returning to peak form for a year and doing very well. He is also capable of an injury prone, ineffective season. He's at the stage when you just don't know.

The Reds have had a great off season and I wouldn't spend one minute worrying about this Oswalt thing. The Reds can't sign everybody. They have five starters plus Chapman plus Francis.

Not only that, but the Reds have a very deep bullpen. I've been unhappy with Masset lately, but the Reds deserve enormous credit for signing two quality arms, Masset and Arredondo, for two years AFTER increasing payroll for Madson and Marshall. What a deep group of bullpen arms.

I think we will see a much better pitching staff this coming year, and if Oswalt is with the Cards, so be it. The Reds are still the better team and, frankly, should just absolutely demolish the rest of the Central Division.

Let's just hope the team stays reasonably healthy. If you have your health. . . .

kaldaniels
01-28-2012, 01:07 AM
Signing geezers like Oswalt and Beltran is not the end of the world guys. It is still a net loss for the Cards this offseason when you figure in the subtraction of Albert.

It's gonna be a fun season, but this move is not a nightmare scenario for the Reds.

kaldaniels
01-28-2012, 01:08 AM
In 2011:

Francis 2.6 WAR
Oswalt 2.5 WAR

Post of the day.

Reds/Flyers Fan
01-28-2012, 01:12 AM
As I've always said: I wish nothing but the worst for the St. Louis Cardinals.

The Reds have hit him recently. It'll only get worse for Roy this year. Enjoy watching your pitches fly out of GABP this year Oswalt!

Phhhl
01-28-2012, 01:19 AM
Oswalt's 2010 season was spectacular. He had his best K rate and best whip since his rookie season. Not to say he could ever match that again, but 2011 wasn't exactly chop liver, inspite of the drop off in strikeouts. At his worst, he is the third starter on this team. He is 34, not 39. You look at a player's last three seasons when projecting his numbers, not the LAST season.

To let the Cardinals pick him up at the reported price would be a mistake. By all accounts the Reds have enough to either match or exceed that offer, even if it leaves very little at the trading deadline. If they go to 8-10 mil for him, so be it. I can see why Walt would back off. But, not for this. That would not be "all in", as far as I am concerned.

kaldaniels
01-28-2012, 01:29 AM
Oswalt's 2010 season was spectacular. He had his best K rate and best whip since his rookie season. Not to say he could ever match that again, but 2011 wasn't exactly chop liver, inspite of the drop off in strikeouts. At his worst, he is the third starter on this team. He is 34, not 39. You look at a player's last three seasons when projecting his numbers, not the LAST season.

To let the Cardinals pick him up at the reported price would be a mistake. By all accounts the Reds have enough to either match or exceed that offer, even if it leaves very little at the trading deadline. If they go to 8-10 mil for him, so be it. I can see why Walt would back off. But, not for this. That would not be "all in", as far as I am concerned.

You weight the last season the most. But let's say I'm being generous and weight his last 3 seasons the same...he is a 3.4 WAR player.

Kc61
01-28-2012, 01:38 AM
Oswalt's 2010 season was spectacular. He had his best K rate and best whip since his rookie season. Not to say he could ever match that again, but 2011 wasn't exactly chop liver, inspite of the drop off in strikeouts. At his worst, he is the third starter on this team. He is 34, not 39. You look at a player's last three seasons when projecting his numbers, not the LAST season.

To let the Cardinals pick him up at the reported price would be a mistake. By all accounts the Reds have enough to either match or exceed that offer, even if it leaves very little at the trading deadline. If they go to 8-10 mil for him, so be it. I can see why Walt would back off. But, not for this. That would not be "all in", as far as I am concerned.

Really doesn't sound like the Reds have any interest in paying for Oswalt. It's a nice wish, but I don't think it's happening. So we will have an occasional series next year facing Carpenter, Wainright and Oswalt. That's just the likely reality.

Hopefully, we will match up well with Cueto, Latos, and Leake. Yeah, I'd put Leake third.

Phhhl
01-28-2012, 01:44 AM
Really doesn't sound like the Reds have any interest in paying for Oswalt. It's a nice wish, but I don't think it's happening. So we will have an occasional series next year facing Carpenter, Wainright and Oswalt. That's just the likely reality.

Hopefully, we will match up well with Cueto, Latos, and Leake. Yeah, I'd put Leake third.

The problem is, Garcia is already third for the Cards. So, it is now Oswalt vs. our no. 4.

edabbs44
01-28-2012, 06:48 AM
Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com reports that the Cardinals and Roy Oswalt have agreed to a contract.
Jim Duquette of MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM first reported that the two sides were close. No word yet on the financial terms, but we'd suspect it's a one-year deal in the $5-10 million range, possibly with some performance-based incentives. The 34-year-old Oswalt was limited to 23 starts last season due to a back condition, but he still posted a quality 3.69 ERA and 93/33 K/BB ratio across 139 innings. It will be interesting to see who gets the boot from the Cardinals' starting rotation, as Kyle Lohse and Jake Westbrook are both owed big money this season and have no-trade clauses in their contracts.

lollipopcurve
01-28-2012, 07:47 AM
Pretty sure Oswalt is going exactly where he wanted to go. Cards may be tough. But they've got a lot of older guys with injury histories. That can go the wrong way in a hurry.

PuffyPig
01-28-2012, 09:28 AM
The problem is, Garcia is already third for the Cards. So, it is now Oswalt vs. our no. 4.

You do understand that matchups don't occur that way?

HokieRed
01-28-2012, 09:51 AM
Could we have gotten Oswalt for what we've spent on Navarro, Valdez, Francis, Harris, and other guys for whom there are at least near replacements available from within? If so, that looks like a bad use of resources to me.

_Sir_Charles_
01-28-2012, 09:58 AM
Could we have gotten Oswalt for what we've spent on Navarro, Valdez, Francis, Harris, and other guys for whom there are at least near replacements available from within? If so, that looks like a bad use of resources to me.

Maybe. But here's the thing. Who does Oswalt boot out of OUR rotation? Seriously.

Oswalt is trending down...RAPIDLY. The guys he could replace are young and trending up. And Bronson, with his salary he's not going anywhere. Plus, after last year he's got noplace to go but up. Truthfully, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if Arroyo out-pitches Oswalt this season. Even if both are healthy.

Oh yeah, and go back and read Puffy's post for a harsh dose of reality for RoyO.


Originally Posted by PuffyPig
In 2011:

Francis 2.6 WAR
Oswalt 2.5 WAR

Phhhl
01-28-2012, 10:41 AM
You do understand that matchups don't occur that way?

Of course. No need to talk to me as if I am an idiot. I am obviously pointing out that their rotation looks pretty deep with Oswalt on the back end. Again, I hope you guys are right. But, Oswalt went over 200 innings for the only time in several years in 2010. So, 2011 could be a trend, or it could be a direct effect of that overload. And, it's not like he was horrible last year anyway.

Let's see what he signs for. If it's a homeboy hookup, I am not going to be happy.

Kc61
01-28-2012, 10:43 AM
Could we have gotten Oswalt for what we've spent on Navarro, Valdez, Francis, Harris, and other guys for whom there are at least near replacements available from within? If so, that looks like a bad use of resources to me.

I can't buy into this. Team needs veteran depth in case of injuries.

Gallen5862
01-28-2012, 10:57 AM
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

Cards Close To Deal With Oswalt; BoSox, Astros In Mix
By Mark Polishuk [January 28 at 8:03am CST]
SATURDAY, 8:03am: Oswalt is likely to sign with the Cardinals "soon," reports Gordon Edes of ESPN Boston. His source cautioned that it's "not yet 100 percent," however. Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports that Oswalt turned down a one-year, $10MM offer from the Tigers, and that being close to his Mississippi home is a major factor in his decision.

Blitz Dorsey
01-28-2012, 11:22 AM
Dammit ... I knew this would happen. Was hoping the Red Sox would step up and out-bid the Cards, but I figured Oswalt would land in the Lou.

Oh well, overall, I'll take it. They get Beltran and Oswalt, but lose Pujols and LaRussa.

Spitball
01-28-2012, 11:29 AM
Garber: "No Chance" Of Oswalt Relieving

By Tim Dierkes [January 28 at 9:55am CST]

There is "no chance" of Roy Oswalt relieving, agent Bob Garber told MLBTR this morning. "He will absolutely be a starter," according to the agent.

Other reports have indicated Oswalt is close to a deal with the Cardinals. Garber would not comment on anything team-specific, but his stance about his client avoiding the bullpen implies that if the Cardinals are indeed the favorite, they'll have to trade a current starter or move one to relief. The Cardinals' current rotation consists of Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Kyle Lohse, Jaime Garcia, and Jake Westbrook. There are no major physical issues with any of the five, tweets Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, although one has a minor, pre-existing condition. Wainwright, who had Tommy John surgery in late February, is said by Strauss to be "bueno." Lohse and Westbrook have full no-trade clauses.

I don't see why he would sign with the Cardinals if he won't go to the bullpen. Oswalt and the rumors this winter have been strange and sometimes conflicting. I have even seen the Astros mentioned.

HokieRed
01-28-2012, 11:41 AM
On the question of who Oswalt would have booted out of our rotation, I'd have let him compete with Leake, Bailey, and Arroyo for the last spot--and I'd happily have booted the loser to the bullpen. I strongly suspect that would have been Arroyo.
And KC, I just can't buy that the sum of the advantage of Navarro over Corky, of Valdez over Janish, and of Harris over Phipps is greater than having Roy Oswalt.

kaldaniels
01-28-2012, 12:05 PM
On the question of who Oswalt would have booted out of our rotation, I'd have let him compete with Leake, Bailey, and Arroyo for the last spot--and I'd happily have booted the loser to the bullpen. I strongly suspect that would have been Arroyo.
And KC, I just can't buy that the sum of the advantage of Navarro over Corky, of Valdez over Janish, and of Harris over Phipps is greater than having Roy Oswalt.

If it is confirmed that Oswalt's salary = that of Navarro,Valdez,Harris,(and even Francis for that matter), then we can have that discussion. But I've got a feeling otherwise.

Blitz Dorsey
01-28-2012, 12:19 PM
If it is confirmed that Oswalt's salary = that of Navarro,Valdez,Harris,(and even Francis for that matter), then we can have that discussion. But I've got a feeling otherwise.

Also, if he turned down $10M from the Tigers, what makes us Reds fans think he would have taken LESS to sign with the Reds? Was never going to happen. No way the sum of the contracts of Francis (if he even makes the team), Navarro, Harris and Valdez equates to anything even in the neighborhood of $10M.

Vottomatic
01-28-2012, 12:34 PM
...... but lose Pujols and LaRussa.

They may be even better now that TLR isn't there doing his goofy stuff.

Blitz Dorsey
01-28-2012, 12:39 PM
They may be even better now that TLR isn't there doing his goofy stuff.

Yeah, I'm sure their new manager will be an improvement over a HOF manager. [Heavy sarcasm.]

We all loved to hate LaRussa. I never would have admitted this while he was still around (LOL) but he was a hell of a manager.

I mean, we still owned his rear end in 1990 of course (Do YOU have your official Tony LaRussa 1990 edition broom?) but he was still a great manager. No way the Cards will be better off without him. I will miss making fun of him for doing things just for show like batting the pitcher 8th. I don't care what anyone says, that's foolish. But other than that, LaRussa was very good. I'm sure Marty will also miss him. Ha.

Edd Roush
01-28-2012, 12:40 PM
I can't buy into this. Team needs veteran depth in case of injuries.

After reading Hokie's post, I was just about to post the same thing before you did. I would rather have five insurance policies compared to one especially since I am not 100% certain that Oswalt will be a major upgrade over Francis this year.

MikeThierry
01-28-2012, 01:45 PM
Carpenter
Wainwright
Garcia
Lohse
Westbrook/Oswalt?


Does anyone think they might be using a 6 man rotation? As some have pointed out, there are a lot of question marks and allowing Waino and Carp to essentially pitch once a week will certainly ease their workload.

By the way, when did the Cardinals become the 2004 Houston Astros?

757690
01-28-2012, 01:53 PM
I don't see why he would sign with the Cardinals if he won't go to the bullpen. Oswalt and the rumors this winter have been strange and sometimes conflicting. I have even seen the Astros mentioned.

This explains the Reds passing on Oswalt. There's no way they would trade one of their starters to sign him, which seems to be a demand on his part.

Personally, I don't understand his demand on the Cardinals. If he doesn't have faith that he can beat out Jake Westbrook for a spot in a rotation, he should retire.

757690
01-28-2012, 02:19 PM
Does anyone think they might be using a 6 man rotation? As some have pointed out, there are a lot of question marks and allowing Waino and Carp to essentially pitch once a week will certainly ease their workload.

By the way, when did the Cardinals become the 2004 Houston Astros?

Even if they don't officially go to a six man rotation, that's a good way to convince Oswalt that he won't have to pitch in the bullpen for them.

MikeThierry
01-28-2012, 02:20 PM
Even if they don't officially go to a six man rotation, that's a good way to convince Oswalt that he won't have to pitch in the bullpen for them.

I think it gives them added depth if one of these guys do go down. Plus it's a nice bridge until guys like Shelby Miller and Carlos Martinez come up next year.

Kc61
01-28-2012, 02:38 PM
On the question of who Oswalt would have booted out of our rotation, I'd have let him compete with Leake, Bailey, and Arroyo for the last spot--and I'd happily have booted the loser to the bullpen. I strongly suspect that would have been Arroyo.
And KC, I just can't buy that the sum of the advantage of Navarro over Corky, of Valdez over Janish, and of Harris over Phipps is greater than having Roy Oswalt.

I disagree. Corky may have been an option some years ago, but Navarro is a much, much safer bet if Mes proves to be unready or if there is an injury.

Phipps? Hasn't played one minute of major league baseball. Some people don't think he's that great in the minors. He's not a viable depth guy this year. Maybe he will be next year.

I agree that Valdez over Janish is debatable, although I'll take the the experience in pennant races of Valdez.

If the Reds are to contend they have to have viable players in case of injury. Corky Miller and Denis Phipps at this stage do not qualify. The contracts of guys like Navarro, Harris, Francis, Valdez and others are worth every penny.

You'll thank me in the dog days of August.

757690
01-28-2012, 02:56 PM
Could we have gotten Oswalt for what we've spent on Navarro, Valdez, Francis, Harris, and other guys for whom there are at least near replacements available from within? If so, that looks like a bad use of resources to me.

Those guys will only make their money if they make the team, and even then they are only making combined (except for Francis) around $1M more than who they might replace on the roster.

PuffyPig
01-28-2012, 04:53 PM
Does anyone think they might be using a 6 man rotation?

No, because Larussa has retired.......

That would allow him to put his mark on the game.

MikeThierry
01-28-2012, 05:24 PM
No, because Larussa has retired.......

That would allow him to put his mark on the game.

Mike Matheny is a LaRussa and Dave Duncan disciple.

Phhhl
01-29-2012, 02:44 AM
Mike Matheny is a LaRussa and Dave Duncan disciple.

Matheny is ignorant until proven guilty.

757690
02-04-2012, 03:46 PM
Reds talking to Oswalt per Jon Paul Morosi:

http://mlbbuzz.yardbarker.com/blog/mlbbuzz/could_red_sox_reds_or_phillies_land_oswalt/9763630


The Reds, meanwhile, have spoken with Oswalt’s representatives recently and probably would need to move payroll and stretch their budget in order to afford him, a source said. The Cincinnati rotation currently consists of Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Bronson Arroyo, Mike Leake, and Homer Bailey or Aroldis Chapman. The signing of Oswalt would signal that the Reds are going all-in to win the division now, before the potential departures of Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips via free agency over the next couple years.

Will M
02-04-2012, 03:47 PM
http://mlbbuzz.yardbarker.com/blog/mlbbuzz/could_red_sox_reds_or_phillies_land_oswalt/9763630

Caveat Emperor
02-04-2012, 04:38 PM
Tough to see the Reds going over budget to sign Oswalt knowing they'd have to also deal a starter (likely Homer Bailey) to make room for him in the rotation.

hebroncougar
02-04-2012, 04:43 PM
Tough to see the Reds going over budget to sign Oswalt knowing they'd have to also deal a starter (likely Homer Bailey) to make room for him in the rotation.

If signing Roy Oswalt meant trading Homer Bailey, so be it. I'm sick to death of watching Homer either A. Get hurt, or B. not fulfill his "potential"

_Sir_Charles_
02-04-2012, 04:43 PM
Tough to see the Reds going over budget to sign Oswalt knowing they'd have to also deal a starter (likely Homer Bailey) to make room for him in the rotation.

I agree. The only way I can see them adding Oswalt is if they decided to move Bronson to the bullpen as the long man and LeCure to AAA. They certainly can't deal him with that albatross.

And I'm probably in the minority here, but I'd prefer Bailey over Oswalt anyway. I still see Homer as a top of the rotation pitcher. I though he would be there last season, but the injuries de-railed him a bit.

757690
02-04-2012, 04:46 PM
If they do trade Homer, it's not like they get nothing for him. He's a valuable commodity. So it would be Oswalt plus whatever they get for Homer instead of just Homer. I imagine they could get some nice depth for the rotation for Homer.

Matt700wlw
02-04-2012, 04:50 PM
I'm thinking, do it.

Get it done.

Caveat Emperor
02-04-2012, 05:03 PM
If signing Roy Oswalt meant trading Homer Bailey, so be it. I'm sick to death of watching Homer either A. Get hurt, or B. not fulfill his "potential"

I'm not in love with Bailey, but he's certainly serviceable and I'd rather see the team have SOME flexibility to add a part at the deadline (especially if someone gets hurt or they have a hole to fill) than max the credit card out before anyone reports.

757690
02-04-2012, 05:10 PM
If the Reds can package Homer and Masset, that saves $5M, probably enough to get Oswalt.

I would offer BoSox that package for Middlebrooks and a AAA pitching prospect. Not sure BoSox would do it, I would think they would be all over a chance to get Homer.

mattfeet
02-04-2012, 05:11 PM
I bet it'll take $7-8MM for Oswalt. But still, your proposed $5MM savings goes a long way towards that.

-Matt

HokieRed
02-04-2012, 05:12 PM
Step 1: Sign Oswalt. Step 2: Move Arroyo to Bullpen. Step 3: Club is better.

RedLegSuperStar
02-04-2012, 05:18 PM
In my opinion ticket sales should be on the rise already with the moves this club has made. Heck the team is already being mentioned as a World Series contender. My thought is if you add a name like Roy Oswalt.. tickets will be sold and he will pay for himself.

Kc61
02-04-2012, 05:24 PM
Oswalt would be tough to accomplish if they have to move salary.

The obvious move is to move Arroyo for essentially nothing and fill his spot with Oswalt. But Arroyo's contract is tough to move, maybe impossible. This is the only obvious solution and it is probably impossible.

They could try and move Rolen's contract and use Francisco and Frazier at third base this year. Don't see it happening. Rolen, if healthy, is a glue guy, someone the Reds won't likely move.

Homer Bailey? Don't see it happening. The Reds held him all winter because they still think he can emerge. Reds would have to get a valuable prospect back in return for Homer. Possible, yes, but at this point in the off-season, might be tough to accomplish.

And Homer would not open up that much salary room. Masset could be moved too, that makes some sense, but now he has a two year deal at over $5 million. Don't know who wants to take that on.

So I don't see an obvious deal that opens the door for Oswalt. But --

Reds should just make the best deal they can and sign the guy. It's a risk, he might not be healthy, whatever, but this is our year. Just sign him. Make a trade during the season to reduce payroll when other teams get injuries.

C'mon, go for it.

membengal
02-04-2012, 05:32 PM
Could they be considering moving Phillips? That would free up some salary. Course, no one to really step into his spot at 2b...

Matt700wlw
02-04-2012, 05:33 PM
Moving Chapman frees up a whole bunch...

mdccclxix
02-04-2012, 05:36 PM
Oswalt is in the mold of similar FA's left for dead like Berkman, Damon, and Abreu. These are superlative players over their careers. You have to look at how strong the Reds can be with Oswalt.

Latos
Cueto
Oswalt
Arroyo
Bailey/Leake/Chapman

You also have to consider, he probably doesn't want to play for St. Louis. At this point I'm thinking he's got something against them after being in Houston for so long. If he did join the dark side, the Cards are prohibitive favorites in the Central for sure.

Sign Oswalt.

One idea would be to go Votto & Chapman for Bautista & Lind. Sign Oswalt.

BP
Cozart
Bautista
Bruce
Rolen
etc.

:)

membengal
02-04-2012, 05:42 PM
I'm all for it if it were to mean no Arroyo.

PuffyPig
02-04-2012, 05:57 PM
One idea would be to go Votto & Chapman for Bautista & Lind. Sign Oswalt.


:)

Zero chance Toronto would trade 4 years of Bautista for 2 years of Votto.

RedlegJake
02-04-2012, 06:21 PM
They should go all out and sign him and let the chips fall - I guarantee they'll need that starter before the season's done. Of course that means eating extra payroll but if Cast is dead serious pony the bucks for one year and just go all in. You've got til the deadline to move a player to make room and fill a need, you've got ST to sort out who makes the rotation and which guy begins the year in long relief/Leake or Bailey (or someone hurting right out of the gate). I know, I know. Money. But this could be their year and Oswalt could be the difference. He sure makes the rotation sound better and darn does it sound deep - especially without a trade.

mace
02-04-2012, 06:30 PM
I'm all for it if it were to mean no Arroyo.

I understand that Arroyo is coming off a dreadful year, but I think his value is being seriously understated around here. Of course, that's assuming that his troubles last year were due in part to the mono, and that he will return to somewhere near his 09-10 form. Maybe that's wishful thinking. But in a rotation where everybody else is young, you really, really need an innings eater. Oswalt is a better pitcher than Arroyo, but certainly not more durable at this point.

I definitely agree that Oswalt would be a good addition. I'm not as sure that Arroyo would be a good subtraction.

membengal
02-04-2012, 06:31 PM
That's fine and all, and I expect him to bounceback, but even with that, I would rather have Oswalt than Arroyo.

And I don't want Arroyo over Leake or Bailey in a hypothetical where they add Oswalt.

corkedbat
02-04-2012, 06:43 PM
Oswalt has been out there a while. I think h's ready to come in from the cold. He keeps talking with the Reds. I can see the Reds stretching the budget by about $5M to go for it all (maybe a couple mil deferred for a couple of years) andthen give him and option year of about $10M with a $2-2.5M buyout that basically adds $2.5M to his 2012 salary.

I think there is ZERO chance that the Reds move Arroyo to the pen (at least not out of spring training). I could see them moving Bailey into long relief or I can see Leake starting the season in Louisville if he were to struggle in ST for some reason. I would not mind it a bit if they signed Oswalt and dealt say, Homer, Massett and Frazier for a solid bat of some sort.

marcshoe
02-04-2012, 06:52 PM
I don't think the Reds' management is too dense to read a calendar. They have to know that Arroyo may be on the decline, and there's no reason they wouldn't take this into consideration.

I say sign Oswalt if feasible. I'm actually a little worried about the Reds having enough pitching, even now. When a team's going all in, proven starters are a necessity.

Caveat Emperor
02-04-2012, 07:04 PM
Latos
Cueto
Leake
Oswalt
Arroyo

If Arroyo can return to his 2009 / 2010 form, that has the potential to be one hell of a rotation.

reds44
02-04-2012, 07:12 PM
Moving Chapman frees up a whole bunch...
No.

reds44
02-04-2012, 07:13 PM
Latos
Cueto
Leake
Oswalt
Arroyo

If Arroyo can return to his 2009 / 2010 form, that has the potential to be one hell of a rotation.

or....

Latos
Cueto
Leake
Oswalt
Bailey

corkedbat
02-04-2012, 07:19 PM
I don't think the Reds' management is too dense to read a calendar. They have to know that Arroyo may be on the decline, and there's no reason they wouldn't take this into consideration.

I say sign Oswalt if feasible. I'm actually a little worried about the Reds having enough pitching, even now. When a team's going all in, proven starters are a necessity.

Reds management will not pay BA $25M over two seasons for mop-up duty short of injury or utter meltdown.

Captain Hook
02-04-2012, 07:27 PM
Don't get me wrong, I'm very pleased with what the Reds have done this offseason.I have to admit though, I don't get everyone saying that the Reds are all in this year. Any of us could've predicted a payroll between 80-90 million this upcoming season and with that alone none of us would've said the Reds are going all in.Isn't payroll set to be in that neighborhood?Sign Oswalt, pushing payroll over 90 million and I'll jump on the all in bandwagon.

MattyHo4Life
02-04-2012, 07:35 PM
You also have to consider, he probably doesn't want to play for St. Louis. At this point I'm thinking he's got something against them after being in Houston for so long. If he did join the dark side, the Cards are prohibitive favorites in the Central for sure.

Why would you think that he doesn't want to play in St. Louis? When the Astros were looking to trade Oswalt, he mentioned St. Louis as one of the places he would like to play the most. Also, more recently, it has been reported that the two places Oswalt wanted to sign as a FA were the Rangers and Cardinals. Both teams have a full rotation though. We know that Oswalt doesn't want to play for teams like the Blue Jays and Indians, because he told them he wouldn't be signing with them.

AmarilloRed
02-04-2012, 08:24 PM
A tweet from Ken Rosenthal now says that the Reds are not actively pursuing Oswalt, just 'kicking the tires'. It may still happen, but I'm not giving it a high likelihood.

marcshoe
02-04-2012, 08:39 PM
Reds management will not pay BA $25M over two seasons for mop-up duty short of injury or utter meltdown.

Does the money suddenly become better spent if he is doing a higher profile job poorly? The money's already spent; putting him in the rotation or the bullpen doesn't change anything. You put together the best team possible with the pieces you have.

thatcoolguy_22
02-04-2012, 10:41 PM
If trading pitching away is necessary to sign Oswalt, I'll pass. If he will sign without any team altering changes, I dump Arroyo into the bullpen. No way do I try and trade away Bailey. Arroyo is just waiting for the fork. Its true he can give you 200+ IP, but they were crummy innings in 2011, and a repeat seems likely. Also with the deferment in his contract, the Reds are not putting 25M in the bullpen over 2 years, just 5M this year. We don't know what the rotation will look like in 2013. Oswalt will likely be on a 1 year deal.

Arroyo
09 5.19 k/9 ... 2.66 bb/9 ... .265 babip ... 4.50 xFIP
10 5.09 k/9 ... 2.46 bb/9 ... .239 babip ... 4.42 xFIP
11 4.88 k/9 ... 2.04 bb/9 ... .278 babip ... 4.54 xFIP

Bailey
09 6.83 k/9 ... 4.13 bb/9 ... .300 babip ... 4.52 xFIP
10 8.26 k/9 ... 2.37 bb/9 ... .315 babip ... 3.75 xFIP
11 7.23 k/9 ... 2.25 bb/9 ... .296 babip ... 3.77 xFIP

Pushing your chips all in means putting your best arms in the rotation. The numbers speak for themselves guys. Arroyo will still have to start 10+ games with the regular wear/tear on a pitching staff. By no means do I look to move Bailey for Bronson's bobsled act.

marcshoe
02-04-2012, 10:50 PM
Agreed. I'm really high on Bailey going into 2012, and I hope he doesn't get traded or shuttled to the bullpen. I have some confidence that the FO won't be too stubborn about Bronson.

IslandRed
02-04-2012, 10:56 PM
A tweet from Ken Rosenthal now says that the Reds are not actively pursuing Oswalt, just 'kicking the tires'. It may still happen, but I'm not giving it a high likelihood.

I still have the sense Oswalt's agent is putting the screws to the Cardinals by playing up the Reds as a possible destination. I would love to be wrong about that, by the way.

MartyFan
02-04-2012, 11:01 PM
I still have the sense Oswalt's agent is putting the screws to the Cardinals by playing up the Reds as a possible destination. I would love to be wrong about that, by the way.

I don't disagree sense Jocketty stated earlier in the offseason that the Reds had been contacted by Oswalt's agents but they were in no position to sign him.

Vottomatic
02-05-2012, 08:59 AM
I still have the sense Oswalt's agent is putting the screws to the Cardinals by playing up the Reds as a possible destination. I would love to be wrong about that, by the way.

I agree it's all posturing for more money.

But it wouldn't hurt my feelings if Bob & Walt pulled another surprise out of their hat.

Blitz Dorsey
02-05-2012, 10:54 AM
I'm just glad he hasn't signed with the Cards yet. Hopefully one side will get so ticked at the other that the deal will fall apart and he'll end up in Boston. Although, he wants to be close to his home in Mississippi (we found the ONE person who actually wants to live in that state) so probably the Rangers would be the next-best bet. In fact, the Rangers should step it up and sign him. Course, Oswalt probably doesn't want to play in a launching pad like Arlington. (Same reason a lot of pitchers probably don't want to pitch at GABP.)

MattyHo4Life
02-05-2012, 11:52 AM
I'm just glad he hasn't signed with the Cards yet. Hopefully one side will get so ticked at the other that the deal will fall apart and he'll end up in Boston. Although, he wants to be close to his home in Mississippi (we found the ONE person who actually wants to live in that state) so probably the Rangers would be the next-best bet. In fact, the Rangers should step it up and sign him. Course, Oswalt probably doesn't want to play in a launching pad like Arlington. (Same reason a lot of pitchers probably don't want to pitch at GABP.)

I think Oswalt will end up in Boston. There seems to be mutual interest, and possible an offer still on the table. I just don't think he accept the Cardinals 5Mil offer, and the Cardinals probably can't go any higher than that. Westbrook would be nearly impossible to trade. I'm hoping the Cardinals will sign him, but I just don't see it happening.

Vottomatic
02-05-2012, 12:54 PM
I think he ends up on the Nationals. They're signing everyone else. ;):laugh::lol:

BoydsOfSummer
02-05-2012, 03:37 PM
I really, really don't want to see him sign with St. Looey. Like someone earlier said, if Bob and Walt sign Roy and bump Bronson to a bully/roogy role I'll buy the all in vibe. I'm excited about the season as is, but adding Oswalt would be suh-weet. Swiping him from the Angry Birds beaks...triple bonus!

RedLegSuperStar
02-05-2012, 04:14 PM
Bronson Will Not & I Repeat Will Not Be Placed In The Bullpen. Leake Would Either Be Optioned Or Bailey Would Be Dealt. Pete Rose Will Be Elected Into The Hall Of Fame Before The Reds Tab Arroyo A Relief Pitcher.

kaldaniels
02-05-2012, 04:47 PM
Bronson Will Not & I Repeat Will Not Be Placed In The Bullpen. Leake Would Either Be Optioned Or Bailey Would Be Dealt. Pete Rose Will Be Elected Into The Hall Of Fame Before The Reds Tab Arroyo A Relief Pitcher.

I don't expect him to but if he stinks up the joint again just what do you think the Reds will do then?

He is a sunk cost who has used his mulligan.

757690
02-05-2012, 04:57 PM
Bronson Will Not & I Repeat Will Not Be Placed In The Bullpen. Leake Would Either Be Optioned Or Bailey Would Be Dealt. Pete Rose Will Be Elected Into The Hall Of Fame Before The Reds Tab Arroyo A Relief Pitcher.

Reds have made it clear they are going for it this year. They will make decisions based soley on what they believe will get them into the playoffs.

Last year seemed like a lost year from early on, so no urgency to make major changes. Different mentality this year. Arroyo will do whatever the team thinks is best.

kaldaniels
02-05-2012, 06:43 PM
What's up with beginning every word in caps Redleg? I see that on another thread also.

Vottomatic
02-05-2012, 08:36 PM
Bronson Will Not & I Repeat Will Not Be Placed In The Bullpen. Leake Would Either Be Optioned Or Bailey Would Be Dealt. Pete Rose Will Be Elected Into The Hall Of Fame Before The Reds Tab Arroyo A Relief Pitcher.

thE redS starteD lasT seasoN witH cuetO anD baileY oN thE dL, anD witH arroyO havinG monO. siX startinG pitcherS wouldn'T hurT A thinG.

AmarilloRed
02-05-2012, 09:06 PM
A 6 man rotation would mean Cueto and Latos would get 27 starts instead of 32-33. 12 games that might make a big difference in the division-I can't say a 6 man rotation would be a good thing for the Reds.

Phhhl
02-05-2012, 10:18 PM
A 6 man rotation would mean Cueto and Latos would get 27 starts instead of 32-33. 12 games that might make a big difference in the division-I can't say a 6 man rotation would be a good thing for the Reds.

If we're going to get creative, why not just put Cueto and Latos on a 5-man schedule, and the other four on a 6-man schedule? Whoever's turn it happens to be gets displaced by a day or two based on whether Latos or Cueto is due to pitch that day. Our two best pitchers would still often match up against the other team's best, and the other guys would benefit from extended rest. A good manager might even be able to make one of the four starters available out of the pen in an emergency on any given day, and STILL be able to make his next start.

It would take some serious juggling and forethought to go all season like that. But, I think it is an intriguing idea that could provide some hidden value in matchups over the course of a season.

PuffyPig
02-05-2012, 10:30 PM
If we're going to get creative, why not just put Cueto and Latos on a 5-man schedule, and the other four on a 6-man schedule? Whoever's turn it happens to be gets displaced by a day or two based on whether Latos or Cueto is due to pitch that day. Our two best pitchers would still often match up against the other team's best, and the other guys would benefit from extended rest.

Old wives tale.

#1's face other team's #1, etc.

It gets pretty jumbled after a few starts.

RedLegSuperStar
02-05-2012, 10:38 PM
Reds have made it clear they are going for it this year. They will make decisions based soley on what they believe will get them into the playoffs.

Last year seemed like a lost year from early on, so no urgency to make major changes. Different mentality this year. Arroyo will do whatever the team thinks is best.

Need I Remind You Who The Manager Is? Dusty Won't Dog His Vets.. Just Saying. If We Through Aaron Harang Out The The Final Two Tears Of His Reds Tenure Then Arroyo Will Get The Nod Every 5 Games. Now If David Bell Was The Manager Who Knows. But I Know Arroyo Is Cemented In The Rotation. The Reds See Him As An Innings Eater.. I Can Tell You Some Of Arroyos Bad Outings Come From The 1st Inning. I Know His Days In The Best City In The World; Boston, He Was A Reliever. But He Could Actually Be A Decent #4 or #5 Starter.

RedLegSuperStar
02-05-2012, 10:39 PM
What's up with beginning every word in caps Redleg? I see that on another thread also.

It's Kind Of My Thing.. Almost Like My Signature So To Speak.

LoganBuck
02-05-2012, 10:46 PM
It's Kind Of My Thing.. Almost Like My Signature So To Speak.

thaT iS sO greaT, i thinK wE alL should typE iN uniquE styleS.

nate
02-05-2012, 10:51 PM
It's Kind Of My Thing.. Almost Like My Signature So To Speak.

It is incredibly difficult to read.

kaldaniels
02-05-2012, 11:00 PM
It's Kind Of My Thing.. Almost Like My Signature So To Speak.

Whatever you call it, it is obviously a new gimmick as your past posts don't reflect such a thing. You may want to come up with something else as this style is not an endearing one. Just my two cents and I'll now go back to minding my own business.

MikeThierry
02-05-2012, 11:55 PM
Whatever you call it, it is obviously a new gimmick as your past posts don't reflect such a thing. You may want to come up with something else as this style is not an endearing one. Just my two cents and I'll now go back to minding my own business.



:beerme::)

757690
02-06-2012, 12:37 AM
Latest from Fay. Nothing really new, but confirms the the Reds talked to Oswalt last week.

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2012/02/05/jocketty-nothing-new-on-oswalt/

powersackers
02-06-2012, 02:41 AM
I personally wouldn't trade Bailey for Oswalt straight up. Bailey is still getting better every year, Oswalt has stopped getting better obviously.

Even in 2012 I'd be shocked if Bailey and Oswalt won't be about equals performance wise.

RedLegSuperStar
02-06-2012, 05:23 AM
Whatever you call it, it is obviously a new gimmick as your past posts don't reflect such a thing. You may want to come up with something else as this style is not an endearing one. Just my two cents and I'll now go back to minding my own business.

Well The Last Time I Typed Like This The Writing Police PMd Me.. So I Layed Off Of It For A While. I Type Like This On Facebook & Twitter As Well And It's Just More Of A Habit Not.

If Reading What I Type Is Hard To Read.. Well Then I Have To Question Your Ability To Read In General. Sorry But I'm Not Cursing Nor Am I Belittling Anyone. What I Do With My Typing Is Harmless. Choose To Like It, Ignore It, Look Past It, Or Whatever. Please Refrain From Commenting On It Though. I Don't Take Anyone's Typing And Correct All The Mispelled Words Or Punctuations And Don't See Why This Is Any Different.

I Apologize That This Is Taken Up From The Roy Oswalt Discussion.

Caveman Techie
02-06-2012, 06:28 AM
typing without following the rules is so free and liberating i dont think i will ever use proper punctuation or caps again you were right if no one else can interpret my meaning then to hell with them im gonna keep on doing it my way it shows im a rebel only sheepel follow the rules that have been established for hundreds of years that allow others to interpret the meaning of your written words

OrMaybeIJustWon'tUseSpacesAnymoreThatWouldWorkTooH MMMMI'llHaveTooThinkAboutIt

RedlegJake
02-06-2012, 06:44 AM
I was just about to make a smart-aleck comment replying to yours caveman when I went back and read the posts prior to yours, thankfully. Now I understand. Gotcha. Concur.

RANDY IN INDY
02-06-2012, 07:19 AM
Well The Last Time I Typed Like This The Writing Police PMd Me.. So I Layed Off Of It For A While. I Type Like This On Facebook & Twitter As Well And It's Just More Of A Habit Not.

If Reading What I Type Is Hard To Read.. Well Then I Have To Question Your Ability To Read In General. Sorry But I'm Not Cursing Nor Am I Belittling Anyone. What I Do With My Typing Is Harmless. Choose To Like It, Ignore It, Look Past It, Or Whatever. Please Refrain From Commenting On It Though. I Don't Take Anyone's Typing And Correct All The Mispelled Words Or Punctuations And Don't See Why This Is Any Different.

I Apologize That This Is Taken Up From The Roy Oswalt Discussion.

It has taken away from this thread and discussion, as well as every other thread and discussion in which it shows up. It is distracting and totally unnecessary. If your intent is to annoy, you have accomplished your mission. Please act like an adult and type correctly.

RedLegSuperStar
02-06-2012, 08:50 AM
It has taken away from this thread and discussion, as well as every other thread and discussion in which it shows up. It is distracting and totally unnecessary. If your intent is to annoy, you have accomplished your mission. Please act like an adult and type correctly.

I'm Not Trying To Annoy And Maybe Your Shouldn't Make Accusations As Such. My Demeaner Is Not To Be Childish Or Annoying As I Type Like This. Period End Of Discussion. Ignore It And Move On.

RedLegSuperStar
02-06-2012, 08:52 AM
It has taken away from this thread and discussion, as well as every other thread and discussion in which it shows up. It is distracting and totally unnecessary. If your intent is to annoy, you have accomplished your mission. Please act like an adult and type correctly.


typing without following the rules is so free and liberating i dont think i will ever use proper punctuation or caps again you were right if no one else can interpret my meaning then to hell with them im gonna keep on doing it my way it shows im a rebel only sheepel follow the rules that have been established for hundreds of years that allow others to interpret the meaning of your written words

OrMaybeIJustWon'tUseSpacesAnymoreThatWouldWorkTooH MMMMI'llHaveTooThinkAboutIt

There's Typing Rules? Holy Dictionary, Thesaurus, And Wand Writing Books!

Caveman Techie
02-06-2012, 09:22 AM
http://www.grammarbook.com/punctuation/capital.asp

Here you go, since you seem to not be aware of the rules of grammar. By capitalizing every word, you make it hard to read for people who actually know the rules of grammar. I keep trying to read every word as a proper noun, which really makes it hard to interpret what you are trying to say.

RedLegSuperStar
02-06-2012, 09:32 AM
Wow.. I'll Definately Keep That In Mind Going Forward. I Might Have To Use It When I Noticed Misspellings & Run On Sentances. Thank You!

Caveman Techie
02-06-2012, 09:42 AM
I'm normally not a grammar Nazi, people make mistakes it happens. However with what you are doing, you are doing it intentionally and I'm sorry if I offended you, but it just struck a nerve with me.

Thank you for informing us that you do not intend to change. I will now be adding you to my ignore list, which honestly saddens me because I often enjoy your posts, I just can't get past this "thing" you do.

Sorry for continuing to sidetrack the thread.

RedLegSuperStar
02-06-2012, 09:46 AM
Okay.. Really People.. Back To The Discussion. Message Me Your Reasons For Disrupting Everyone's Vision And Send The Bill To My E-Mail. Let's Get Back To Discuss Roy Oswalt.

nate
02-06-2012, 09:53 AM
Well The Last Time I Typed Like This The Writing Police PMd Me.. So I Layed Off Of It For A While. I Type Like This On Facebook & Twitter As Well And It's Just More Of A Habit Not.

If Reading What I Type Is Hard To Read.. Well Then I Have To Question Your Ability To Read In General. Sorry But I'm Not Cursing Nor Am I Belittling Anyone. What I Do With My Typing Is Harmless. Choose To Like It, Ignore It, Look Past It, Or Whatever. Please Refrain From Commenting On It Though. I Don't Take Anyone's Typing And Correct All The Mispelled Words Or Punctuations And Don't See Why This Is Any Different.

I Apologize That This Is Taken Up From The Roy Oswalt Discussion.

I have no problem reading in general and I find this difficult to read. Mainly because, it's impossible to scan at the rate I find comfortable. There are none of the tell-tale indicators (end punctuation, space, capital - those who can't be bothered to put a space after a punctuation mark are similarly difficult to read) to hone in on during the scanning.

We're in a leisurely pursuit to converse about the Reds. It's easy to forgive typos and poor grammar. It's not easy to forgive deliberately making text non-standard as the online equivalent of torn blue jeans, long hair or perhaps a tattoo.

Express your individuality through ideas, not purposely butchering grammar.

ee cummings, you're not

Boss-Hog
02-06-2012, 10:08 AM
Okay.. Really People.. Back To The Discussion. Message Me Your Reasons For Disrupting Everyone's Vision And Send The Bill To My E-Mail. Let's Get Back To Discuss Roy Oswalt.

I, along with everyone else who has chimed in, would appreciate if you type normally. I'm not sure what your intent is, but it's difficult to read and detracts from the conversation. Please revert to normal typing.

RedLegSuperStar
02-06-2012, 10:19 AM
I, along with everyone else who has chimed in, would appreciate if you type normally. I'm not sure what your intent is, but it's difficult to read and detracts from the conversation. Please revert to normal typing.

Roy Oswalt. Thanks!

Patrick Bateman
02-06-2012, 11:03 AM
Roy Oswalt. Thanks!

If you wanted the conversation back on track, typing in a manner that doesn't make the readers' eyes bleed would probably be a good start........

Reds/Flyers Fan
02-06-2012, 11:44 AM
This is really getting bizarre.

RedLegSuperStar
02-06-2012, 11:44 AM
I feel like punching everyone in the eyes because you are all full of.. Well you know. Regardless I will continue to type "properly" from here on out. Because your banters have gone on far to long for a non issue regardless if the owner of the site chimes in or not. But in order to maintain the integrity of the website an what it is used for I will type accordingly. But mind you their are no rules stating how one should type and it still is considered a free country.

Roy Oswalt will be a Red by the weekend!

MikeThierry
02-06-2012, 12:00 PM
Jesus... I come into a discussion about Roy Oswalt and the whole discussion is about how the attention ***** of the week is typing?......

Anyway, I think Oswalt will end up in Boston. I just don't believe the Cards will spend that much money on another starter.

RANDY IN INDY
02-06-2012, 12:00 PM
Kinda reminds me of Bill Walton and John Wooden. Walton came to practice sporting a beard. Wooden told him to shave it, as it was against team rules. Walton said it was his right to wear a beard and Wooden replied, yes William it is and feel free to continue wearing it. The team will miss you. Walton decided it best to shave.

Spitball
02-06-2012, 12:19 PM
I feel like punching everyone in the eyes because you are all full of.. Well you know. Regardless I will continue to type "properly" from here on out. Because your banters have gone on far to long for a non issue regardless if the owner of the site chimes in or not. But in order to maintain the integrity of the website an what it is used for I will type accordingly. But mind you their are no rules stating how one should type and it still is considered a free country.

Roy Oswalt will be a Red by the weekend!

When people read, there is a process going on that allows us to concentrate on the comprehension of the written words and the message being conveyed. We make meaning based on, among other things, prior knowledge. We have stored understanding of grammar, capitalization, and punctuation which is subliminally summoned during the process. It allows us to read with the fluidity that enhances understanding and enjoyment of the written message. It is like driving down the road and processing the information we encounter such as road signs and ruts in the road.

When there is unusual usage of the stored information, it interupts the reading process.

medford
02-06-2012, 12:25 PM
I'll assume your high school teacher is cringing somewhere. It may be harmless, but it makes it harder to read, and thus significantly easier to skip over. I rarely play grammar police, heck I make more than my own share of mistakes, probably have a couple in this post alone, but to intentionally make something hard to read is flat out annoying. Aside from that, its got to make typing a pain in the butt, I guess you'd get used to it after a while, but it couldn't come natural at 1st, if you thought it was cool, sorry to tell you, its not.

All that aside, I'd sign Roy, if the money was there and figure out the rest of the rotation later. I'd keep Bronson in the starting rotation for 1 easy reason. Who else on this team do you feel more confident will give you 200+ innings this season? Didn't Latos have some arm "issues" last year? We know Bailey & Cueto both did, Leake seems like a good bet to get 200 innings of solid stuff based upon last year, but he doesn't have the track record that Bronson does. Chapman? Not a chance. If they signed Oswald, I'd be happy with 150 innings of something resembling the Roy Oswald that regularly shut down the Reds.

Injuries happen, not just hear, but elsewhere with pitchers every spring. If its not the Reds, there will certainly be a team somewhere that has a hole in its 5 man staff that it didn't expect coming out of spring training. If the Reds sign Oswald, they'll also have the luxory of holding some solid trading chips they could slide into somebody else's starting rotation to fill a hole in the Reds either currently or in the future.

Its an easy decision for me, but its not my money.

medford
02-06-2012, 12:27 PM
When people read, there is a process going on that allows us to concentrate on the comprehension of the written words and the message being conveyed. We make meaning based on, among other things, prior knowledge. We have stored understanding of grammar, capitalization, and punctuation which is subliminally summoned during the process. It allows us to read with the fluidity that enhances understanding and enjoyment of the written message. It is like driving down the road and processing the information we encounter such as road signs and ruts in the road.

When there is unusual usage of the stored information, it interupts the reading process.

what he said.

dunner13
02-06-2012, 12:30 PM
you know its a slow time for baseball news when were discussing how someone types, its a baseball forum who cares how you type. Type however you want if it annoys me I'll just skip over your posts and read the next one like I do for all the other posts that annoy me

Patrick Bateman
02-06-2012, 12:32 PM
you know its a slow time for baseball news when were discussing how someone types, its a baseball forum who cares how you type. Type however you want if it annoys me I'll just skip over your posts and read the next one like I do for all the other posts that annoy me

I thought the advice people have actually been given is useful for the poster in question.

Bumstead
02-06-2012, 12:50 PM
Grammar police cause more arguments than most any other type of person on a forum. The place for them is teaching in a school, not lecturing on a forum. Nobody cares and the one's that do generally have a superiority complex just like the grammar policeman. And it gets really sad when the guy that runs the site supports that sort of crap on here. Posts should be relevant to the topic at hand. If you want to criticize somebodies writing style, do it in a pm.

Bum

marcshoe
02-06-2012, 12:55 PM
Grammar police cause more arguments than most any other type of person on a forum. The place for them is teaching in a school, not lecturing on a forum. Nobody cares and the one's that do generally have a superiority complex just like the grammar policeman. And it gets really sad when the guy that runs the site supports that sort of crap on here. Posts should be relevant to the topic at hand. If you want to criticize somebodies writing style, do it in a pm.

Bum

fwiw, I'm an English teacher, and I couldn't care less about posters' idiosyncratic typing habits. Usually. I will admit that the guy on another board who ended every sentence with ellipses irritated me, as well as the guy who began every post with his username followed by a colon.

Anyway, I hope Oswalt signs with somebody soon and gets this discussion back on track. I'm a firm believer that you will need at least seven or eight starters over the course of the season and would love to see this addition without subtraction. The bits and pieces I'm seeing, however, lead me to think Oswalt's too expensive for the Reds. Looks like Boston.

Caveman Techie
02-06-2012, 01:07 PM
Grammar police cause more arguments than most any other type of person on a forum. The place for them is teaching in a school, not lecturing on a forum. Nobody cares and the one's that do generally have a superiority complex just like the grammar policeman. And it gets really sad when the guy that runs the site supports that sort of crap on here. Posts should be relevant to the topic at hand. If you want to criticize somebodies writing style, do it in a pm.

Bum

Judging from the number of responses this particular style of writing has generated, I would say the bold part of your message is inaccurate to say the least.

While I normally agree with you about the grammar police, most grammar mistakes are exactly that, mistakes. Forget it and move on. This was not a mistake but an intentional attempt at a style. Unfortunately it was a style that seems to have struck a nerve with a good number of people, including myself.

RedLegSuperStar
02-06-2012, 01:19 PM
Please.. I do thank those showing the other side of the arguement but, lets either move this thread and insert the title as "Once was Roy Oswalt discussion; Now who can type better so one can read and then discuss." Or let's get back to making this thread about the distination of Oswalt.

Spitball
02-06-2012, 01:38 PM
Anyway, I think Oswalt will end up in Boston. I just don't believe the Cards will spend that much money on another starter.

I don't know about Boston and Oswalt. It makes sense so why hasn't it already happened?

I think Oswalt would rather not chance a one-year contract in an AL East city. He may have to, but I would not be surprised for him to land back in Philly or even Houston.

savafan
02-06-2012, 01:48 PM
Grammar police cause more arguments than most any other type of person on a forum. The place for them is teaching in a school, not lecturing on a forum. Nobody cares and the one's that do generally have a superiority complex just like the grammar policeman. And it gets really sad when the guy that runs the site supports that sort of crap on here. Posts should be relevant to the topic at hand. If you want to criticize somebodies writing style, do it in a pm.

Bum

I didn't even notice that every word was capitalized, to be honest. This just seems like a lot of complaining about nothing important really. For the love of all things literary, I hope none of you ever read James Joyce's Ulysses.

fearofpopvol1
02-06-2012, 02:10 PM
Can this thread be closed please and we start another one? The last 2 pages are full of nothing.

Boss-Hog
02-06-2012, 02:18 PM
I would have never said a peep if this was something accidental that had no bearing on threads, but it was distracting and I'd rather nip it in the bud before the issue continues to come up in other threads.

That being said, the issue of intentionally typing in an unconventional manner has been resolved, so this thread can get back on track.

Caveman Techie
02-06-2012, 02:21 PM
Well here is my take on Oswalt. If the Reds get him I don't see Bailey making the rotation out of spring training.

Personally I hope they do get him, he's a low risk, potential huge return type of player that could propel the Reds to the playoffs.

Bumstead
02-06-2012, 02:33 PM
I hope the Reds step up the budget for Oswalt, but I fear their butt will pucker in the end. It would be a good opportunity on a 1 year deal to see if the fans are going to support a better team with higher salaries, giving Jockety/Castellini some guidance when dealing with Phillips and Votto regarding extensions. Not to mention the opportunity Oswalt gives the Reds to compete beyond just getting into the playoffs.

Bum

RedLegSuperStar
02-06-2012, 02:56 PM
I hope the Reds step up the budget for Oswalt, but I fear their butt will pucker in the end. It would be a good opportunity on a 1 year deal to see if the fans are going to support a better team with higher salaries, giving Jockety/Castellini some guidance when dealing with Phillips and Votto regarding extensions. Not to mention the opportunity Oswalt gives the Reds to compete beyond just getting into the playoffs.

Bum

Absolutely.. This is my take on this as well. You bring in a name like Roy Oswalt you are going to sell tickets. His name would pop up every time Houston played the Reds. Either we would be happy that the Reds will not face him or we were cringing when he would be on the mound. Fans around here definately know the name and will pay to watch him pitch. Myself included. A signing like that proves to the nation, not only community that this team is infact dedicated to winning.

The Oswalt talk though can not be good for Jeff Francis regardless and I really like Francis. All this talk is completely different from years past when we were signing budget value players.

Scrap Irony
02-06-2012, 03:05 PM
Oswalt wouldn't sell anymore tickets than any other Red, IMO, who isn't Joey Votto.

If the Reds win, they will come.

And if it's Homer Bailey that's relegated to the pen, it's a poor move, IMO.

The man to take out of the rotation is Arroyo, plain and simple.

RedRoser
02-06-2012, 03:20 PM
Oswalt wouldn't sell anymore tickets than any other Red, IMO, who isn't Joey Votto.

If the Reds win, they will come.

And if it's Homer Bailey that's relegated to the pen, it's a poor move, IMO.

The man to take out of the rotation is Arroyo, plain and simple.

:beerme: Couldn't agree more, Scrap!

mace
02-06-2012, 03:27 PM
The man to take out of the rotation is Arroyo, plain and simple.

That's an understandable sentiment, but where are the innings coming from?

Last year, Reds starters pitched 969 innings, which was middle-of-the-pack. The Phillies' starters threw 1,064. The goal, it seems, should be somewhere around 1,050. A modest goal would be in the neighborhood of 1,000 innings.

So . . . how do we get to 1,000 innings?

If Oswalt replaces Arroyo, last year's precedent looks like this:

Latos 194
Leake 168
Cueto 156
Oswalt 139
Bailey 132

Total 789

Yes, there's potential for improvement in that group, particularly from Bailey and Cueto. But there's also a pretty distinct possibility of more of the same. And from Oswalt, as well. That leaves a long way to go.

Arroyo pitched 199 innings last year, his lowest total since 2004. His innings won't put the staff where it needs to be, but they definitely aid the cause. Naturally, he needs to pitch better than he did in 2011. To do that, he needs an opportunity--at least until he demonstrates that last year wasn't an aberration attributable to his mono.

The bottom line is that it will probably take six starters to produce the innings that the Reds need from their rotation. To me, that's how Oswalt would fit in. (And it's where Francis fits at the moment.)

Edit: I'm not talking about a six-man rotation. I'm saying it will take six solid starters to fill the five spots of the rotation.

mattfeet
02-06-2012, 03:31 PM
^^Good post.

Will M
02-06-2012, 03:38 PM
That's an understandable sentiment, but where are the innings coming from?

Last year, Reds starters pitched 969 innings, which was middle-of-the-pack. The Phillies' starters threw 1,064. The goal, it seems, should be somewhere around 1,050. A modest goal would be in the neighborhood of 1,000 innings.

So . . . how do we get to 1,000 innings?

If Oswalt replaces Arroyo, last year's precedent looks like this:

Latos 194
Leake 168
Cueto 156
Oswalt 139
Bailey 132

Total 789

Yes, there's potential for improvement in that group, particularly from Bailey and Cueto. But there's also a pretty distinct possibility of more of the same. And from Oswalt, as well. That leaves a long way to go.

Arroyo pitched 199 innings last year, his lowest total since 2004. His innings won't put the staff where it needs to be, but they definitely aid the cause. Naturally, he needs to pitch better than he did in 2011. To do that, he needs an opportunity--at least until he demonstrates that last year wasn't an aberration attributable to his mono.

The bottom line is that it will probably take six starters to produce the innings that the Reds need from their rotation. To me, that's how Oswalt would fit it. (And it's where Francis fits at the moment.)

Edit: I'm not talking about a six-man rotation. I'm saying it will take six solid starters to fill the five spots of the rotation.

i recall a post i made about the average number of starters a team needed to make it through 162 games. very often the #6 guy on the depth chart pitched a whole lot of innings. having a guy who you can pencil in for 150 innings when (not if) one of the top 5 guys goes down seems prudent. now right now the Reds do have that. sort of. Francis & Chapman are the #6/#7 guys. Lecure is #8 in case of a whole bunch of injuries. so where would Roy fit in? easy. if he is healthy he is easily one of the top 4 starters. Arroyo & Bailey can fight it out for the #5 spot with the loser going to the pen as a swingman/long relief. they will be that #6 guy when he is needed. Chapman is in AAA & likely Ondrusek gets bumped to AAA. what about Francis? well if all goes well, everyone pitches well this spring & everyone is healthy opening day: thats one really nice problem to have.

Caveman Techie
02-06-2012, 03:43 PM
Oswalt wouldn't sell anymore tickets than any other Red, IMO, who isn't Joey Votto.

I don't know how true this is. I know that as soon as I told my wife that there was a chance the Reds sign Oswalt her response was; "We WILL get tickets to his first game!"

I don't know how much of an impact he would make, but for a casual fan (like my wife) getting a name like Oswalt could influence their decision to go to the game or not. At least in the beginning of the season, if they fell out of contention then I don't think it would matter who is on the team the fans in Cincinnati will not show up.

dfs
02-06-2012, 03:47 PM
I'm not talking about a six-man rotation. I'm saying it will take six solid starters to fill the five spots of the rotation.

Guys get hurt.

I believe it's common for a team to use 7 starters over a season. 6 good ones, isn't a stretch. Particularly when guys like Arroyo or Bailey are on your list of 6.

There is no guarantee that Chapman is going to work out as a starter. They guy gets injured.

It would not kill me, if Homer started the season in the pen or Leake started the season in Louisville. I would rather have the reds win than have those guys hit career marks. If there is any way that Walt can work a contract to have Oswalt on board, then do it.

fearofpopvol1
02-06-2012, 03:56 PM
I don't think Oswalt would sell more tickets, but I do think Oswalt would improve the pitching staff, especially if Arroyo was ousted. Unfortunately, I don't think either will happen.

Kc61
02-06-2012, 03:57 PM
Guys get hurt.

I believe it's common for a team to use 7 starters over a season. 6 good ones, isn't a stretch. Particularly when guys like Arroyo or Bailey are on your list of 6.

There is no guarantee that Chapman is going to work out as a starter. They guy gets injured.

It would not kill me, if Homer started the season in the pen or Leake started the season in Louisville. I would rather have the reds win than have those guys hit career marks. If there is any way that Walt can work a contract to have Oswalt on board, then do it.

Mike Leake was one of the Reds' best starting pitchers last season. He will NOT start this year at AAA. Not happening.

Cueto, Latos, and Leake are locks for this rotation.

Barring some miraculous trade, I frankly don't see Arroyo out of the rotation. Reds are paying him starting pitcher's money, I think he will be given a chance to re-establish himself as a starter in 2012.

That leaves Bailey's spot. I can see Homer traded, but it would take a meaningful return. I could see Homer in the bullpen, they can certainly make room there.

I hope the Reds just sign Oswalt and work things out later, but the reality is that it is unlikely because they don't have a spot for him in the rotation and they don't have room in the budget.

And I don't see Oswalt agreeing unless he is one of five starting pitchers set for opening day.

RedsManRick
02-06-2012, 04:13 PM
Just want to point out what the difference between a 3.50 and 4.50 ERA is over the course of a season. It's 22 runs over 200 PA. 2 wins, more or less. And if you think the ERA difference between Homer & Oswalt would be smaller (I do), it's probably more like 1 win.

I sort of like the idea of replacing Arroyo with Oswalt, but I'd definitely be worried about the health issues between both Homer and Oswalt. It'd be one thing if we had the same depth we had last year -- but we don't. Trading Arroyo probably means eating salary on top of what it take to get Oswalt and when you factor in the innings issue, I'd pass.

LoganBuck
02-06-2012, 04:51 PM
Remember, according to some Cincinnati area fitness guru on the radio, Homer Bailey is going to be packing 20 lbs more muscle. People are quick to ditch him, lets see what he looks like next weekend, when the pictures roll in.

lollipopcurve
02-06-2012, 04:54 PM
Remember, according to some Cincinnati area fitness guru on the radio, Homer Bailey is going to be packing 20 lbs more muscle. People are quick to ditch him, lets see what he looks like next weekend, when the pictures roll in.

Exactly. More importantly, let's get a read on how Arroyo's throwing. The team should be able to assess whether he's stronger than he was last year within a week or two of pitchers being in camp.

Bumstead
02-06-2012, 05:18 PM
How interesting that Reds fans are now willing to accept mediocrity vs signing a player that can make a real impact not only on the Reds chances of winning the division but also on their chances of advancing beyond the first round of the playoffs. Putting Bailey and his 120 IP average in the bullpen at the start of the season is not going to hurt his development in the least, hell, it may hold off his next injury.

I, for one, am not interested in going with mediocre players when something better is available for not that big an investment. Someone has to throw innings and outside of last season, Oswalt has proven to be a 200+ IP guy.

Bum

corkedbat
02-06-2012, 05:19 PM
Mike Leake was one of the Reds' best starting pitchers last season. He will NOT start this year at AAA. Not happening.

Cueto, Latos, and Leake are locks for this rotation.

Barring some miraculous trade, I frankly don't see Arroyo out of the rotation. Reds are paying him starting pitcher's money, I think he will be given a chance to re-establish himself as a starter in 2012.

That leaves Bailey's spot. I can see Homer traded, but it would take a meaningful return. I could see Homer in the bullpen, they can certainly make room there.

I hope the Reds just sign Oswalt and work things out later, but the reality is that it is unlikely because they don't have a spot for him in the rotation and they don't have room in the budget.
iAnd I don't see Oswalt agreeing unless he is one of five starting pitchers set for opening day.

* While I believe it is unlikely that Leake is left out of the rotation, he was sent to Lousiville last season after a rough patch early. He does have an option remaining and if he were to have a rough spring, I could see him startinbg the season in Louisville.

* I believe it would be quite easy to replace Ondrusek's spot in the pen with Bailey. I'm not sure it would be a bad thing to have Home go to cmp fighting for his spoteither. If Chapman progresses well at AAA, Oswalt's helath holds and the return is right, you could deal Homer for something interesting.

* I agree that Arroyo will start the season if healthy. While I detest the extension he ws given for the bind it has the Reds in now, I still think there; a decent chance that BA pitches well enoughto remain in the rotation for the first mionth of the season at the very least. That doesn't mean he even has to outpitch any of the other five candidates. His salary and "veteranicity" will have the FO making excuses for him coming out of the spring. It may not have been the reason for all of his struggles, but not having sufficient (or any) time to recuperate fro mono could impact his entire season.

* IIRC we had two starters that went down in ST (or shortly after and spent much of the early season on the DL, so it could be that there won't even be a sixth starter on the roster and if there is, history has shown us they may not be there for long. With a 162 game schedule, signing Oswalt and having Bailey in the pen as well as Francis and Chapman in the wings at L'Ville would make me feel a lot more secure about our divison chances. I believe with deferred dollars and an option buyout, the Reds can make it happen if they want to. I hope they do.

MikeS21
02-06-2012, 05:28 PM
As long as Latos, Cueto, Bailey, and Leake are the other four starters, I would be thrilled to have Oswalt in the rotation. Would not want to see any of those four sacrificed in order to make room for Oswalt. And replacing Arroyo has little or no chance of happening.

If Oswalt were 100% healthy, I might be more motivated to making room for him. But after the pitching that has been traded away this off-season, I don't want to trade any more of our young pitchers.

RANDY IN INDY
02-06-2012, 05:44 PM
I don't think Bailey is a good candidate for the bullpen as he struggles getting loose, and not pitching thereafter. Some guys just can't do the "get up and down, get thrown in the game whenever" thing. Wouldn't be good for Bailey, or the Reds in my estimation.

mth123
02-06-2012, 05:55 PM
I don't think Bailey is a good candidate for the bullpen as he struggles getting loose, and not pitching thereafter. Some guys just can't do the "get up and down, get thrown in the game whenever" thing. Wouldn't be good for Bailey, or the Reds in my estimation.

Agreed. The only way signing Oswalt makes any sense is if they can deal Bailey and somebody like Stubbs or Heisey for an upgrade.

Sign Oswalt, then deal Bailey, Stubbs, Phipps and Hamilton for Andrew McCutchen. (I know it won't ever happen, but its the only way to make the money work and actually get an upgrade.)

Vottomatic
02-06-2012, 06:17 PM
If they sign Oswalt, they have 6 legit starting pitchers. Just freakin' go with a 6-man rotation. Someone is bound to get hurt, and more than likely, it's a 5-man rotation for most of the season with injuries and whatnot. It's a long, long season. No way will it be a 6-man rotation for very long.

It beats what happened last season with Bailey and Cueto starting the season on the DL, and Arroyo having mono. How quickly fans forget.

In no way do I trade Bailey, except for a crazy good offer for him. You don't have to trade anyone. The depth will be needed.

Edit: As you said, it won't happen, but I'd do that trade in a heartbeat. If some team did come with a quality offer for Bailey, I'd consider it, sign Oswalt, and then sign Francis to a minor league deal.

RedlegJake
02-06-2012, 06:30 PM
I agree you don't have to trade anyone. I'll bet right now that the Reds don't have the 5 guys they are counting on right now healthy and ready on opening day (Cueto, Latos, Arroyo, Leake & Bailey). I'll bet at least 1 is temporarily down - a week, a start, two weeks something.

And when that guy gets back someone else will go down. How often on the last five seasons have the 5 main starters (well ok - the Reds haven't always had 5 main starters so that's kinda hard to figure out) been healthy all at once?

Not too many stretches in a row. There is always someone with a tweak or a strain or a flu who needs at least a start off. A lot of times in the early going you can suck it up because you have more off days the first 2 months but that's why 6 starters won't really jam the team up too much. And they have til the first trade deadline to make a deal, they can push Arroyo or Bailey to the pen if they are struggling, or Leake can be optioned if he is.

Sign Oswalt and let the chips fall. Worrying about having six starters is ridiculous. The money is the problem - not the six starters. I don't believe them for a minute if they say otherwise.

Kc61
02-06-2012, 06:32 PM
If they sign Oswalt, they have 6 legit starting pitchers. Just freakin' go with a 6-man rotation. Someone is bound to get hurt, and more than likely, it's a 5-man rotation for most of the season with injuries and whatnot. It's a long, long season. No way will it be a 6-man rotation for very long.

It beats what happened last season with Bailey and Cueto starting the season on the DL, and Arroyo having mono. How quickly fans forget.

In no way do I trade Bailey, except for a crazy good offer for him. You don't have to trade anyone. The depth will be needed.

Edit: As you said, it won't happen, but I'd do that trade in a heartbeat. If some team did come with a quality offer for Bailey, I'd consider it, sign Oswalt, and then sign Francis to a minor league deal.

The Reds will not go with a six man rotation. Not happening.

The Reds might trade Bailey, but they would request a major return. Won't happen now, not this time of year.

The obvious fix if they sign Oswalt is to put Bailey in long relief for awhile. There will be a spot for him starting soon enough.

Whether the reliever to go down is Ondrusek, or Lecure, or a trade of a reliever is to be determined, and really isn't that critical as long as Marshall and Madson are around.

The Reds can figure out the rotation part. It's the budget part that's likely the issue.

Sabo Fan
02-06-2012, 06:43 PM
I'd be all for signing Oswalt and allowing the rotation to sort itself out (injury, trade, Bronson giving up pitching to pursue his musical career) but my biggest concern is that bringing in Oswalt eats up any payflex this team has to make a move in-season. I know that's putting the cart before the horse but I think it's something to consider.

mth123
02-06-2012, 07:00 PM
The Reds will not go with a six man rotation. Not happening.

The Reds might trade Bailey, but they would request a major return. Won't happen now, not this time of year.

The obvious fix if they sign Oswalt is to put Bailey in long relief for awhile. There will be a spot for him starting soon enough.

Whether the reliever to go down is Ondrusek, or Lecure, or a trade of a reliever is to be determined, and really isn't that critical as long as Marshall and Madson are around.

The Reds can figure out the rotation part. It's the budget part that's likely the issue.

Of course the budget is the issue. Jocketty has already said so. He also said they would need to make a move to make room in the budget. IMO, that means Bailey and one of the relievers. That's likely the only way to clear enough budget space. My question is whether its worth weakening the bullpen and giving up more future to upgrade (if even an upgrade at this point) from Bailey to Oswalt. It is if dealing Bailey brings back a significant upgrade elsewhere. Otherwise, that's a lot of juggling for a guy who is pretty iffy to last the season. Backs are a nasty business for a pitcher. Unless they can get a deal in place for Bailey that brings a nice upgrade elsewhere, its not worth it.

I'm fairly skeptical of Bailey lasting the year. I'm equally skeptical of Oswalt. If they both last, I don't think its so clear who would be the better pitcher in 2012.

powersackers
02-06-2012, 07:14 PM
I cannot think of a single reason to start the season with Arroyo in the 4th/5th SP slot. But I can think of 23 Million reasons. He's not a tradeable asset and he's not being cut. So that leaves Bailey vs. Oswalt and like I said earlier and like someone else commented: there's maybe a win or two difference in them. That's not worth trading Bailey over...

Always Red
02-06-2012, 08:07 PM
n/m

nate
02-06-2012, 08:56 PM
I think Oswalt would likely be the second best pitcher on the team.

I'd be OK if Chapman started the season in AAA. I agree it's unlikely the Reds move Arroyo to the bullpen or another team.

Benihana
02-06-2012, 09:14 PM
Sign Oswalt, then deal Bailey, Stubbs, Phipps and Hamilton for Andrew McCutchen. (I know it won't ever happen, but its the only way to make the money work and actually get an upgrade.)

Wouldn't that be nice!

757690
02-06-2012, 10:01 PM
Bailey had good peripherals the last few seasons, but I just don't see him turning the corner for two reasons.

1. Health. There are very few pitchers who have been as injured as Bailey who then stay healthy the rest of their careers. It's hard to count on him for more than 15-20 starts a season.

2. "The Dud Effect". This is my own theory, and based soley on my experience watching games my whole life. Basically, according to tnis theory, what separates most effective pitchers from most non-effective pitchers is that the effective pitchers throw less duds than non-effective pitchers. Forget K/BB, HR/9, and WHIP. Just count how many duds a pitcher throws per inning, and you will be able to determine who will be successful and who will not. Pitchers who throw a lot of duds early in their career, continue to throw them.
Bailey throws a lot of duds, and I just don't see him ever not throwing a lot of duds. He looks great for while, but he always ends up throwing a few duds in an important inning, and gives up important runs.

JMHO

IslandRed
02-06-2012, 10:47 PM
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/02/cardinals-not-likely-to-sign-roy-oswalt.html

Not sure if that info changes the dynamic at all from the Reds' perspective, unless Oswalt is forced to drop his price and will accept something structured like Madson, and even then the Reds might have to trade Bailey to make it work. I can see Jocketty in Castellini's office saying "let me get him and we'll figure it out later," but that's always easy to say when it's not your money.

marcshoe
02-06-2012, 10:53 PM
This is an indication the Reds can't afford him, I think.

reds44
02-06-2012, 11:39 PM
Rosenthal just tweeted we are still pursing him.

reds44
02-06-2012, 11:41 PM
http://mlbbuzz.yardbarker.com/blog/mlbbuzz/reds_still_pursuing_oswalt/9801358?new_post=true

fearofpopvol1
02-07-2012, 12:02 AM
Alright, get it done Walt. If it's this close and the Reds appear to be the best fit, then do it. Adding Oswalt to the rotation would push us past the Cards IMO. I'd hope there was an option for 2013, too.

Blitz Dorsey
02-07-2012, 12:09 AM
So yer tellin' me there's a chance!

Dumb and Dumber 'There's a Chance' - YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KX5jNnDMfxA)

VR
02-07-2012, 12:11 AM
Sign him and immediately sell him to the Nippon Ham Fighters for a side of bacon.

reds44
02-07-2012, 12:29 AM
If we deal Bailey, it needs to be to help refill the farm system we emptied out to get Latos and Marshall.

Captain Hook
02-07-2012, 12:54 AM
Can we trade Arroyo to free agency for Oswalt?

Kc61
02-07-2012, 12:57 AM
Bailey had good peripherals the last few seasons, but I just don't see him turning the corner for two reasons.

1. Health. There are very few pitchers who have been as injured as Bailey who then stay healthy the rest of their careers. It's hard to count on him for more than 15-20 starts a season.

2. "The Dud Effect". This is my own theory, and based soley on my experience watching games my whole life. Basically, according to tnis theory, what separates most effective pitchers from most non-effective pitchers is that the effective pitchers throw less duds than non-effective pitchers. Forget K/BB, HR/9, and WHIP. Just count how many duds a pitcher throws per inning, and you will be able to determine who will be successful and who will not. Pitchers who throw a lot of duds early in their career, continue to throw them.
Bailey throws a lot of duds, and I just don't see him ever not throwing a lot of duds. He looks great for while, but he always ends up throwing a few duds in an important inning, and gives up important runs.

JMHO

The Dud Effect is a pretty good theory.

Very convincing post.

I still believe that if the Reds trade Bailey to dump his salary, they are likely to lose the trade, likely to get decent prospects, not very good ones. Other teams will perceive that the Reds need to dump Homer and will take advantage.

But this post and others may be right that Homer isn't likely to be a star pitcher and it's worth trading him for less to get Oswalt on the payroll.

I don't know, the devil is in the detail, we'll see what happens. But to see Oswalt, the Reds nemesis, pitching for the ballclub would certainly be interesting.

Blitz Dorsey
02-07-2012, 01:41 AM
I'm willing to give up on Homer for even just one year of Oswalt. Sorry, but if Homer is ever a "good" MLB starting pitcher consistently, I'll be surprised.

corkedbat
02-07-2012, 03:43 AM
I'd prefer to hang on to Homer and have a stockpile of rotational depth. If that can't be though, I'd be willing to deal him, Massett and Stubbs or Heisey for the right young OFer (and maybe a young starting or 2B prospect), and sign Oswalt. It would have to be someone that could make a real improvement in the OF though.

Have I ever mentionedI hate the Arroyo extention like a Yankee?

Ron Madden
02-07-2012, 04:53 AM
I hope Roy Oswalt signs elsewhere. I believe his best days are behind him.

edabbs44
02-07-2012, 07:02 AM
This would be interesting and the best part would be that it would be a team friendly deal and not a Papelbon like anchor.

PuffyPig
02-07-2012, 07:25 AM
If we deal Homer Bailey for salary relief with him making a paltry $2.45M, I'll be royally disappointed.

kbrake
02-07-2012, 07:39 AM
I don't want to dump Bailey for one year of an old Roy Oswalt. I don't think its a guarantee that Oswalt will even be better in 2012.

Redhook
02-07-2012, 07:40 AM
If we deal Homer Bailey for salary relief with him making a paltry $2.45M, I'll be royally disappointed.

Yep. You only get rid of Bailey if you can get a good prospect that can play OF or any IF position outside of 1B. Plus, I imagine that signing Oswalt would increase ticket sales possibly covering the 2.45 mil.

Vottomatic
02-07-2012, 07:54 AM
No. There is another. (in my Yoda voice)

Chapman could be dealt to save payroll.

RedsManRick
02-07-2012, 08:59 AM
People do realize that Oswalt has 2 degenerative disks in his back, that he made just 23 starts last year and that his strikeout rate plummeted, right?

Really, the only difference between Homer and Oswalt last year was that Oswalt had good luck on HRs (6.3% HR/FB, 8.8 career) and Homer had bad luck (11.5% HR/FB, 10.5 career). Homer had a better FIP -- 3.77 to 3.95, so it's not like he was notably out-pitched.

Sure, if I could get the 2010 Oswalt, I'd be all over that. But a 34 year old with a bad back? I guess I'd rather have Oswalt than Homer in 2012, but it's much closer than most people think.

osuceltic
02-07-2012, 09:44 AM
Latos
Cueto
Leake
Arroyo
Homer
Oswalt
Chapman

I'm in favor of this signing (for the right price) because you need depth over the course of a season. Chapman is a HUGE question mark as a starter right now. Arroyo is a question mark based on last season. Homer seems to be a permanent question mark. Even Leake is far from a sure thing. Repeat after me ... you can never have enough starting pitching. If it means Chapman spends some time in AAA or Bailey spends some time in the bullpen or whatever, then so be it. The time will come when they will be needed.

The only argument against this acquisition is that you may be better served saving that money for a midseason deal that adds payroll. OK, but would you rather have Oswalt for a full season (or let's just say 20 starts) or your midseason target for about 40 percent of the season? I think I'd go with Oswalt.

The reality is there just isn't much organizational help beyond our current projected top six starters. We need arms.

wolfboy
02-07-2012, 10:27 AM
Latos
Cueto
Leake
Arroyo
Homer
Oswalt
Chapman

I'm in favor of this signing (for the right price) because you need depth over the course of a season. Chapman is a HUGE question mark as a starter right now. Arroyo is a question mark based on last season. Homer seems to be a permanent question mark. Even Leake is far from a sure thing. Repeat after me ... you can never have enough starting pitching. If it means Chapman spends some time in AAA or Bailey spends some time in the bullpen or whatever, then so be it. The time will come when they will be needed.

The only argument against this acquisition is that you may be better served saving that money for a midseason deal that adds payroll. OK, but would you rather have Oswalt for a full season (or let's just say 20 starts) or your midseason target for about 40 percent of the season? I think I'd go with Oswalt.

The reality is there just isn't much organizational help beyond our current projected top six starters. We need arms.

What about Jeff Francis? His 2.6 WAR last year compares favorably to Oswalt's 2.5 WAR.

I'm with RMR in that I don't think Oswalt over Bailey is such a clear choice as it was a few years ago. Add in the fact that Francis already provides solid pitching depth, and I'm not so sure adding Oswalt makes that much sense.

lollipopcurve
02-07-2012, 10:34 AM
It now seems as if the Reds are working to acquire Oswalt, expending real man hours. Which leads me to think the Oswalt camp has given the team some assurance that their interest is real. All I can say is that if this pas-de-deux turns out to be a negotiating tactic meant to open the door in St. Louis, Oswalt is going to be enemy #1 for me in 2012.

dougdirt
02-07-2012, 10:38 AM
What about Jeff Francis? His 2.6 WAR last year compares favorably to Oswalt's 2.5 WAR.

I'm with RMR in that I don't think Oswalt over Bailey is such a clear choice as it was a few years ago. Add in the fact that Francis already provides solid pitching depth, and I'm not so sure adding Oswalt makes that much sense.

I want nothing to do with Francis on the Reds unless he is the 7th or 8th starter. He struck out 11.3% of the batters he faced last year. Even with a good defense behind him, that is a ton of balls in play. Give me Oswalt over him without thinking twice. Give me Bailey over either of them though.

RANDY IN INDY
02-07-2012, 10:39 AM
If the Reds really want Oswalt, they should bite the bullet for a season and not worry about the cost and trading players. C'mon Castellini. If you really want to win, let's see you step up.

crazybob60
02-07-2012, 10:41 AM
If the Reds really want Oswalt, they should bite the bullet for a season and not worry about the cost and trading players. C'mon Castellini. If you really want to win, let's see you step up.

+1

The Voice of IH
02-07-2012, 10:53 AM
has payroll been raised recently?

RANDY IN INDY
02-07-2012, 11:02 AM
Castellini could make a lot of friends and sell a lot of tickets if he signs Oswalt and says he is biting the bullet personally. It would be a risk, no doubt, but it could be the signal to the fans and players that reaps a lot of benefits. If everything goes terribly wrong, you can certainly move salary at the trade deadline.

Caveman Techie
02-07-2012, 11:12 AM
Oswalt had a down year last year, partially due to the back injury. Is his back still a problem? If not then he could be a HUGE acquisition for the Reds.

Nasty_Boy
02-07-2012, 11:12 AM
If Roy was thought to have something left in the tank, wouldn't someone have picked him up by now? There's obviously some concern about his back and about what kind of a pitcher he is at this stage of his career. I like the thought of giving him a 1 year deal but not I feel like Bailey is better at this point and doesn't cost near as much. Too bad Arroyo is unmoveable!

_Sir_Charles_
02-07-2012, 11:16 AM
I don't want to dump Bailey for one year of an old Roy Oswalt. I don't think its a guarantee that Oswalt will even be better in 2012.

This is where I am too. Especially when you toss in the dollar amount it'll take to sign Oswalt. That's money that can be used to re-sign Phillips or Votto.

RANDY IN INDY
02-07-2012, 11:21 AM
If it means trading Chapman or Bailey, I say no to Oswalt.

REDREAD
02-07-2012, 11:26 AM
People do realize that Oswalt has 2 degenerative disks in his back, that he made just 23 starts last year and that his strikeout rate plummeted, right?

.

That's my thought as well.
I would not be mad if Oswalt was signed.
However, if it means we have to trade Homer and Masset (as some suggest),
I'm really not sure it will be worth it.

Who is going to pitch more (quality) innings next year, Oswalt or Homer?
IMO, it's a toss up.

I'm all for going all in this season, but Homer is an acceptable #4/5 starter.
Teams have won the WS with far worse BOR guys. He's got upside and is cheap.

Signing Oswalt makes sense if he's cheap and we don't have to purge talent.
With Ludwick signed, if we trade Homer for an OF, can we keep Franscisco (out of options) on the roster? I am not sure we can make room for him.

Masset is a valuable arm in the pen, even though he is Jeckel and Hyde.
Plus, he's on an affordable 2 year deal. He's not chaff to be discarded, IMO.
Same with Homer. He has pretty good value.

IslandRed
02-07-2012, 12:17 PM
That's kind of where I am, too. I wouldn't mind seeing Oswalt here, and if I had to wager my house I'd probably choose him to have a better season than Bailey. But if it would require dealing Bailey and also other useful parts off the major-league roster to create the salary room, I'm not convinced it's enough of an upgrade to be worth it. Who knows, though. Jocketty's been creative this offseason, maybe he'll find a way to make it all work.

OnBaseMachine
02-07-2012, 12:27 PM
If we deal Homer Bailey for salary relief with him making a paltry $2.45M, I'll be royally disappointed.

Agreed. I want Roy Oswalt, but not at the expense of Homer Bailey.

Caveat Emperor
02-07-2012, 12:30 PM
If it means trading Chapman or Bailey, I say no to Oswalt.

Chapman was a fun novelty act, but I wouldn't hesitate to dump him if the right opportunity arrived.

mace
02-07-2012, 12:41 PM
It'll be interesting to see how all this plays out. Payroll and team-building is a cooperative, give-and-take drill between the GM and owner. It's the GM's job to push for as much talent as he can accumulate, and the owner's to rein him in with payroll parameters. So far, the "giving" end of it has pretty much all been on Jocketty. His resource is player personnel, and he's coughed it up liberally--Wood, Volquez, Alonso, Grandal, Sappelt and Torreyes--in his attempt to go "all-in" for 2012. It's time to see if Castellini is prepared to make a corresponding commitment by extending the budget a bit.

That's not to say that Oswalt is the final test. There may be better ways to spend money (including extensions for Votto and/or Phillips). But if the Reds make a deal with Oswalt--especially without giving up other productive players to offset the expense--it will signal that the "all-in" initiative has been joined by all pertinent parties. That would be heartening. And I dare say, it would impress the customer base in a way that very well might show up at the ticket office.

RANDY IN INDY
02-07-2012, 12:42 PM
Chapman was a fun novelty act, but I wouldn't hesitate to dump him if the right opportunity arrived.

If you could get a "haul" for him, I would not hesitate. Likewise, I'm not giving him away for chaff. Not many guys throw with his velocity.

defender
02-07-2012, 12:54 PM
I don't think Walt will trade a 2012 contributor to sign Oswalt. If someone is traded, it will be Chapman. Hopefuly, they will just make the salary fit. It would be great if they could sign Phillips to an extention that would pay him 2 or 3 mil less in 2012.

fearofpopvol1
02-07-2012, 12:58 PM
I don't think there is any chance the Reds would move Chapman to make way for Oswalt. But Bailey is a different story. His $2.5 million would free up a bit of the money required to pay Oswalt. His injury history is well noted and he's out of options, so it's either be traded or be sent to the pen, which everyone knows is not the ideal place for him. I would say if the Reds acquire Oswalt, you can expect Bailey will be traded unfortunately.

757690
02-07-2012, 01:07 PM
That's my thought as well.
I would not be mad if Oswalt was signed.
However, if it means we have to trade Homer and Masset (as some suggest),
I'm really not sure it will be worth it.

Who is going to pitch more (quality) innings next year, Oswalt or Homer?
IMO, it's a toss up.

I'm all for going all in this season, but Homer is an acceptable #4/5 starter.
Teams have won the WS with far worse BOR guys. He's got upside and is cheap.

Signing Oswalt makes sense if he's cheap and we don't have to purge talent.
With Ludwick signed, if we trade Homer for an OF, can we keep Franscisco (out of options) on the roster? I am not sure we can make room for him.

Masset is a valuable arm in the pen, even though he is Jeckel and Hyde.
Plus, he's on an affordable 2 year deal. He's not chaff to be discarded, IMO.
Same with Homer. He has pretty good value.

I agree. The key is what they can get for Homer. If they can get a real upgrade at LF or a future replacement for Rolen at 3B or a solid group of prospects to refill the farm, it makes sense. Otherwise, it really doesn't.

remdog
02-07-2012, 01:24 PM
Chapman was a fun novelty act, but I wouldn't hesitate to dump him if the right opportunity arrived.

Justin Verlander throws about as hard as Chapman and he was a 'novelty act' when he first came up.

I think the Reds need to make a decision: starter or reliever. What do you want Chapman to be? You have to remember that he didn't start pitching until he was 16. Before that he was a first baseman so there is, in terms of being a MLB pitcher, a big growth curve.

Rem

MikeS21
02-07-2012, 01:44 PM
I agree. The key is what they can get for Homer. If they can get a real upgrade at LF or a future replacement for Rolen at 3B or a solid group of prospects to refill the farm, it makes sense. Otherwise, it really doesn't.
The thing is, if you can get that big of a haul in return for Homer, I'd rather keep Homer.

_Sir_Charles_
02-07-2012, 01:44 PM
Per Fayl:


Update at 1:23: I just talked to Walt Jocketty. He insists that the Reds have had no recent talks to with Oswalt.

““It’s all rumors,” he said. “I’m sick and tired of it. We’ve had no serious talks. We’ve had no contact with the player.”

757690
02-07-2012, 01:52 PM
Per Fayl:
Update at 1:23: I just talked to Walt Jocketty. He insists that the Reds have had no recent talks to with Oswalt.
““It’s all rumors,” he said. “I’m sick and tired of it. We’ve had no serious talks. We’ve had no contact with the player.”


http://marksheldon.mlblogs.com/2012/01/10/madson-report-downplayed/


A source told MLB.com on Tuesday night that the club has contacted almost every player on the market at one time or another. The source downplayed the report on Madson, saying it was unlikely unless Madson’s agent — Scott Boras — came well off the demand of a four-year, $44 million contract he had been reportedly wanting.

Caveat Emperor
02-07-2012, 01:57 PM
Justin Verlander throws about as hard as Chapman and he was a 'novelty act' when he first came up.

I think the Reds need to make a decision: starter or reliever. What do you want Chapman to be? You have to remember that he didn't start pitching until he was 16. Before that he was a first baseman so there is, in terms of being a MLB pitcher, a big growth curve.

Rem

True,if I can get some team to give real value for him AND free up money to sign a pitcher more likely to significantly contribute in 2012 and 2013, that's a deal that needs to be explored.

savafan
02-07-2012, 02:01 PM
Homer Bailey reminds me of Steve Avery, a former #1 draft pick with a ton of potential, who has never quite hit that potential. His career ERA is near 5. I don't want to hear that his peripherals show a likelihood of potential success when he's never met this level of perceived "success". Peripherals mean nothing to me if the final outcome is consistently mediocre.

On the other hand, you have Roy Oswalt, who has had prolonged success at the highest level. He has had an insane amount of success in this city, in this ballpark, and it appears that he and his agent are desperate for him to pitch for the Reds. When was the last time we've heard about all-star pitchers wanting to pitch in Cincinnati? I don't think I can remember a period in my life where that's happened. He's obviously comfortable in the NL Central, and he's had a ton of success in this division throughout his career. And you're going to say no because of Homer Bailey?

As for not wanting to increase payroll to pay Oswalt because that money could go toward an extension for Phillips or Votto, all I can say about that is that increased revenue from a playoff race with an amazingly talented team and postseason revenue could also go toward keeping Phillips and Votto.

REDREAD
02-07-2012, 02:03 PM
In all fairness to Cast, I think approving signing Madson was enough to show that Cast is willing to back things up with his pocket book (As well as the extensions that have been handed out, even though not all Redszoners agree with all extensions).

Cast could've easily just had Walt sign Lidge for a million, and cried poor.

PuffyPig
02-07-2012, 02:04 PM
On the other hand, you have Roy Oswalt, who has had prolonged success at the highest level. He has had an insane amount of success in this city, in this ballpark, and it appears that he and his agent are desperate for him to pitch for the Reds. When was the last time we've heard about all-star pitchers wanting to pitch in Cincinnati?


I don't believe I've heard that Oswalt is desperate to pitch in Cincy.....

savafan
02-07-2012, 02:09 PM
I don't believe I've heard that Oswalt is desperate to pitch in Cincy.....

www.kffl.com/team/48/MLB


Cincinnati Reds general manager Walt Jocketty said free-agent SP Roy Oswalt ( Phillies) and his representatives have reached out to the team

Brutus
02-07-2012, 02:13 PM
I know I thought the Madson report was about leverage at the time and capacity it was put out, and it turns out that the club's comments of downplaying those negotiations weren't accurate, but I do get the feeling Oswalt's people are just trying to use the Reds to up the Cards' bid. And I'm on the record as saying I don't think Oswalt is a huge upgrade at this point in his career nor is he worth too much money. I won't complain if the Reds get him, but I hope it's not at any great sacrifice.

Patrick Bateman
02-07-2012, 02:16 PM
www.kffl.com/team/48/MLB

Yep, he's clearly starved based on that.....

lollipopcurve
02-07-2012, 02:21 PM
““It’s all rumors,” he said. “I’m sick and tired of it. We’ve had no serious talks. We’ve had no contact with the player.”

It's interesting that Jocketty mentions contact with the player. That's not necessarily an ingredient in FA negotiations -- conversation between player and team. It may mean nothing, or it may mean Jocketty is trying to get a better read on the Oswalt camp's intentions than he has been able to get from the agent. In my view, it's a powerful signal to send -- "Roy, if you truly would want to pitch here, give me a call." Give it a day or two, and if you don't hear anything, back away.

savafan
02-07-2012, 02:24 PM
Yep, he's clearly starved based on that.....

Did I say starved? No, I didn't. This trend of posters making snide comments to make themselves look superior to others has gotten old.

Bumstead
02-07-2012, 03:08 PM
So Arroyo can throw 220 innings. Who else has thrown 200 innings in this rotation? uh...nobody...we are worried about Bailey being in the bullpen and missing out on his 120 innings plus his next injury vs adding a proven starting pitcher who has thrown over 200 innings many seasons prior to last season. Yeah, let's pass... :rolleyes: Reds fans have enjoyed horrible teams for so long that now they are willing to settle for mediocrity. Let's not try to win beyond the division. The division title is enough, right? Not for me. The Reds have the team right now to compete, now let's go after it. 2 years from now? Who knows.

Bum

Blitz Dorsey
02-07-2012, 03:11 PM
Haha. "Fayl." That is the perfect nickname for John Fay.

#fail

Scrap Irony
02-07-2012, 03:55 PM
If Oswalt is signed, where would Bailey go and for whom?

Boston? How about Bryce Brentz and Anthony Renaudo? If the Reds added Ryan Masset, could Boston add Feliz Doubront? I might consider that.

Perhaps Kansas City, for Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi? I'd do that.

But that's about it, as far as teams that may be willing to add a player like Bailey at this point and what the Reds may settle on.

Bumstead
02-07-2012, 04:10 PM
If Oswalt is signed, where would Bailey go and for whom?

Boston? How about Bryce Brentz and Anthony Renaudo? If the Reds added Ryan Masset, could Boston add Feliz Doubront? I might consider that.

Perhaps Kansas City, for Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi? I'd do that.

But that's about it, as far as teams that may be willing to add a player like Bailey at this point and what the Reds may settle on.

How about the bullpen????

RedLegSuperStar
02-07-2012, 04:13 PM
Did I say starved? No, I didn't. This trend of posters making snide comments to make themselves look superior to others has gotten old.

:beerme:

Sorry I know it's over but I totally agree...

Scrap Irony
02-07-2012, 04:18 PM
How about the bullpen????

1) It's a waste of talent.
Bailey is a starter who has proven enough to continue to be a starter. He's got very nice peripherals that profile to an above average starter. (Well above average if you assume the 150 starters needed in baseball.)

2) Warming up
Bailey has repeatedly had problems warming up and said, in the past, that the bullpen is difficult for him. Why risk his arm in a reduced role when dealing him would procure prospects?

3) He has trade value.
Pitchers are being dealt for king's ransoms, especially those pitchers that are relatively cheap. If you could get two prospects that may help out a great deal in the future for one guy who's an extra part right now, why not do that?

4) Replenishing the pipeline.
In dealing Bailey, the Reds could seek cheap, effective players that may be able to make a huge difference. Brentz could become a masher in LF as early as 2013. Same for Myers. Odirizzi, Renaudo, and Doubront have plus arms with plus offerings-- they profile to be Homer Bailey in the future.

RedLegSuperStar
02-07-2012, 04:21 PM
Lets all keep in mind here though that Mark Sheldon stated nearly the same thing on the 10th of January about Ryan (or Kyle.. Blitz) Madson was apparently about to sign with the Reds. Sheldon downplayed the story. When infact the Reds were in negotiations with Madson and he was signed later that night.

I'm not saying they are false or true but I'm saying the Reds have had discussions and this isn't the first we heard of this either. If I recall correctly the agent for Oswalt contacted the Reds about pitching here. The Reds do have a issue with payroll and moving a player is a possibility.. shouldn't as Mike Leake could head to AAA. But none the less the Reds state they would have to move money somehow. This is Roy Oswalt.. a proven starter. If he'd accept a deal set up the same way Madson signed then I have no problem with the move. The money will generate it self.

Patrick Bateman
02-07-2012, 04:21 PM
Did I say starved? No, I didn't. This trend of posters making snide comments to make themselves look superior to others has gotten old.

I was just pointing out that the quote you presented wasn't consistent with your analysis that "Oswalt wants to pitch here".

From everything I have read, he seems willing to pitch for any contender assuming he gets his $10M. The quote you provided doesn't suggest he's exactly going out of his way to get in the door in Cincy.

Sorry if my comment offended you, it wasn't meant to. And if you would like to accuse me of being an internet bully, please do so further privately, or else the comment is coming off hypocritical.

Bumstead
02-07-2012, 04:43 PM
1) It's a waste of talent.
Bailey is a starter who has proven enough to continue to be a starter. He's got very nice peripherals that profile to an above average starter. (Well above average if you assume the 150 starters needed in baseball.)

2) Warming up
Bailey has repeatedly had problems warming up and said, in the past, that the bullpen is difficult for him. Why risk his arm in a reduced role when dealing him would procure prospects?

3) He has trade value.
Pitchers are being dealt for king's ransoms, especially those pitchers that are relatively cheap. If you could get two prospects that may help out a great deal in the future for one guy who's an extra part right now, why not do that?

4) Replenishing the pipeline.
In dealing Bailey, the Reds could seek cheap, effective players that may be able to make a huge difference. Brentz could become a masher in LF as early as 2013. Same for Myers. Odirizzi, Renaudo, and Doubront have plus arms with plus offerings-- they profile to be Homer Bailey in the future.

1) unfortunately he hasn't proven that he can be relied to upon to pitch effectively for an entire season, and certainly not on a World Series...sorry we are settling for a Division Contending Team. Peripherals don't win ballgames and are irrelevant if they never turn into anything but peripherals...sigh...

2) get over it, he's an adult now.

3) we will need him due to injuries at some point during the season. Why keep ourselves short in the rotation? It's a 1 year contract, he will move back into the rotation in 2013 if he proves he belongs.

4) It's time to win now. Do what has to be done. We have the horses now, we can't assume we will 2 years from now. Otherwise, we can continue to push for mediocrity and the occasional playoff appearance with no shot of advancing once we get there.

Bum

paulrichjr
02-07-2012, 04:44 PM
With two of the starters being named either Bailey or Arroyo I have serious doubts this team can win the division. Arroyo might pitch every 5th day but if he gets run out there all season pitching like he did in 2011, management is throwing away the season. I hate the idea of trading Bailey away given the Reds lack of depth in the minors at starting pitching. Last year many of this site including me felt that starting pitching depth would be a plus for this team but by May I was lucky enough to see the debut of Chad Reineke...pitching against Zack Greinke. Now I know that no one could predict what would happen to Cueto, Arroyo, and Bailey last year but someone can predict that in 2012 the Reds will need at least 6 starters. I'm fine with competition to select those 6 (Bailey vs. Leake vs. Arroyo - with loser to bullpen).

This move really resembles something like Jocketty would make with the salary being more like $7 million instead of $12. I have to believe a signing of Oswalt with the other trades and signings would result in signicant more ticket sales and a much greater chance of longer contention....which also results in more ticket sales. Make it happen Walt.

RANDY IN INDY
02-07-2012, 04:53 PM
1) unfortunately he hasn't proven that he can be relied to upon to pitch effectively for an entire season, and certainly not on a World Series...sorry we are settling for a Division Contending Team. Peripherals don't win ballgames and are irrelevant if they never turn into anything but peripherals...sigh...

2) get over it, he's an adult now.

3) we will need him due to injuries at some point during the season. Why keep ourselves short in the rotation? It's a 1 year contract, he will move back into the rotation in 2013 if he proves he belongs.

4) It's time to win now. Do what has to be done. We have the horses now, we can't assume we will 2 years from now. Otherwise, we can continue to push for mediocrity and the occasional playoff appearance with no shot of advancing once we get there.

Bum

"Get over it, he's an adult now????"

muddie
02-07-2012, 04:54 PM
FWIW, posted on the Blue Wahoos twitter about an hour ago...

Reds GM says "there's nothing to lead me to believe we will sign" Roy Oswalt … http://atmlb.com/A676ey


If this is already posted somewhere I apologize.

Scrap Irony
02-07-2012, 04:56 PM
So if he gets injured and the Reds lose him for good, thereby destroying his trade value and effectiveness as either an erstwhile reliever or a starter, is that getting over it?

He doesn't work well in that role. It's likely to be harmful to his career, and, as a result, to the Reds.

RANDY IN INDY
02-07-2012, 04:58 PM
So if he gets injured and the Reds lose him for good, thereby destroying his trade value and effectiveness as either an erstwhile reliever or a starter, is that getting over it?

He doesn't work well in that role. It's likely to be harmful to his career, and, as a result, to the Reds.

:beerme: But at least he's proven he's grown up.;)

Bumstead
02-07-2012, 05:03 PM
So if he gets injured and the Reds lose him for good, thereby destroying his trade value and effectiveness as either an erstwhile reliever or a starter, is that getting over it?

He doesn't work well in that role. It's likely to be harmful to his career, and, as a result, to the Reds.

If he gets injured, how would that be any different from any other season? What career? He has underachieved his entire career.

:beerme: Comical...

Scrap Irony
02-07-2012, 05:05 PM
Depends on your expectations, I suppose.

He's an above average major league starter.

He has the possibility of being far more.

Those are the types of guys I keep in the rotation, personally.

Bumstead
02-07-2012, 05:09 PM
Depends on your expectations, I suppose.

He's an above average major league starter.

He has the possibility of being far more.

Those are the types of guys I keep in the rotation, personally.

So, above average starters average 120 innings pitched the last 3 seasons? If that's the case, then the Reds are clearly set for the season...such low expectations.

Bum

Scrap Irony
02-07-2012, 05:13 PM
Is IP the determinant of above average starter or not?

Is it a sure thing, then, that he will only pitch 120 innings this season?

Might Bailey improve?

Bumstead
02-07-2012, 05:18 PM
Is IP the determinant of above average starter or not?

Is it a sure thing, then, that he will only pitch 120 innings this season?

Might Bailey improve?

It would be if I was putting a rotation together. Somebody has to pitch innings...we have 1 starting pitcher that has ever put together 200+ innings (Arroyo). World Series are not won this way. If Bailey pitches 150 innings the Reds will consider themselves lucky and that isn't enough innings. He might improve. What assurances are there that he will log significant innings effectively? Are they similar to the chances that Rolen will play 140 games in 2012? Probably...possible but not very likely.

Bum

RANDY IN INDY
02-07-2012, 05:20 PM
Homer Bailey still has tremendous up side. Heck, he is still only 26 years old. Based on when pitchers sometimes harness their natural ability and "get it," I'm not ready to throw him in the bullpen and give up on him as a starter, not to mention to mess with his head and confidence. Still only 26.

dougdirt
02-07-2012, 05:20 PM
It would be if I was putting a rotation together. Somebody has to pitch innings...we have 1 starting pitcher that has ever put together 200+ innings (Arroyo). World Series are not won this way. If Bailey pitches 150 innings the Reds will consider themselves lucky and that isn't enough innings. He might improve. What assurances are there that he will log significant innings effectively? Are they similar to the chances that Rolen will play 140 games in 2012? Probably...possible but not very likely.

Bum

Bailey has thrown 200 innings in a season before. It just came as a split between AAA and MLB.

I think it is hilarious that Bailey is viewed as a guy who can't be counted on for innings, but Roy Oswalt is coming off of an injury riddled year and has known back problems but should be brought it to give us innings.

There are no assurances that ANY pitcher is going to remain healthy in 2012.

RANDY IN INDY
02-07-2012, 05:22 PM
Agree, Doug.

Scrap Irony
02-07-2012, 05:24 PM
It would be if I was putting a rotation together. Somebody has to pitch innings...we have 1 starting pitcher that has ever put together 200+ innings (Arroyo). World Series are not won this way. If Bailey pitches 150 innings the Reds will consider themselves lucky and that isn't enough innings. He might improve. What assurances are there that he will log significant innings effectively? Are they similar to the chances that Rolen will play 140 games in 2012? Probably...possible but not very likely.

Bum

Pitchers don't get major league innings until they do.

Cueto is poised to break the 200-inning threshold this season.

So is Latos.

Leake's on track to break it as well.

The inning "debate" is marginal at best.

Bumstead
02-07-2012, 05:26 PM
Bailey has thrown 200 innings in a season before. It just came as a split between AAA and MLB.

I think it is hilarious that Bailey is viewed as a guy who can't be counted on for innings, but Roy Oswalt is coming off of an injury riddled year and has known back problems but should be brought it to give us innings.

There are no assurances that ANY pitcher is going to remain healthy in 2012.

True, so why is having quality depth bad? What is wrong with the Reds bringing in a guy for 1 year to try and win now? When are we going to try to win beyond just the division?

So, you think Bailey is going to pitch 200 innings in 2012? What would you base that on? Luck?

Bum

Bumstead
02-07-2012, 05:29 PM
Pitchers don't get major league innings until they do.

Cueto is poised to break the 200-inning threshold this season.

So is Latos.

Leake's on track to break it as well.

The inning "debate" is marginal at best.

So, the innings "debate" will be overcome by "poised to" or "on track to?" I hope so, but it is unlikely at best. I like the guys that we have and I like Bailey, but I want to win more than the division and this group isn't "poised" to do that.

Bum

dougdirt
02-07-2012, 05:33 PM
True, so why is having quality depth bad? What is wrong with the Reds bringing in a guy for 1 year to try and win now? When are we going to try to win beyond just the division?

So, you think Bailey is going to pitch 200 innings in 2012? What would you base that on? Luck?

Bum

I am not against bringing him in. I am against bringing him in and not getting rid of the worst option in favor of ridding ourselves of Bailey.

Scrap Irony
02-07-2012, 05:34 PM
How so?

Latos is a TOR guy.

Outside of Philly, Cueto is as good a number two as there is in the National League.

Leake's numbers last season indicate an exceptional number three starter who's only 23 years old.

Add in the talent of Bailey and Chapman, the possible re-emergence of Arroyo, and this rotation is every bit as good as any in the NL Central and one of the top three in the National League.

mbgrayson
02-07-2012, 05:34 PM
So, above average starters average 120 innings pitched the last 3 seasons? If that's the case, then the Reds are clearly set for the season...such low expectations.

Bum

I agree that Bailey has NOT been 'above average', but he has averaged more than 120 total innings per season the last three years, if you combine MLB and minors.

2009 203 innings (113 MLB)
2010 132 innings (109 MLB)
2011 162 innings (132 MLB)

So his averge number of total innings per year is 165.2 overall, and 118 per year in MLB for the Reds.

His effectiveness has been pretty marginal. While showing occasional flashes of promise, last year he finished with a 4.43 ERA and 1.5 WAR. This was the best ERA he has had in the majors.

He is indeed only 26, and I think we need to be patient and see what 2012 holds for Mr. Bailey. He could well have several very good years in his future.

_Sir_Charles_
02-07-2012, 05:36 PM
If he gets injured, how would that be any different from any other season? What career? He has underachieved his entire career.

:beerme: Comical...

Ummm...no. He was rushed to the majors. Step back and remember, Homer is only TWENTY FIVE!!!! Think about that for a second. It seems like he's been around here in Cincy for a LONG time. He's only 25! Yes, he's had back to back seasons where he's gotten hurt. But when he's in there, he's gotten better every year. I see no reason to think he won't continue to pitch well.

Oswalt, on the other hand, has trended down. Sure, he had that resurgence when he came to Philly. But he's in his mid-upper 30's now (I haven't checked yet) and he's got 2 bad disks in his back. Not a good combination. If both guys pitched full seasons, I fully expect to see Homer with the better numbers at the end of the year. And even if they're similar numbers (or even with Roy's being somewhat better), does that justify forking over 7-10 million dollars? No. Does it justify stunting the growth of a starter who projects to be well above average? No. I see no need or room for Roy Oswalt. Period. This is NOT the same Roy Oswalt that we all saw dominate the Reds for years and years. Not even CLOSE.

Bumstead
02-07-2012, 05:41 PM
I am not against bringing him in. I am against bringing him in and not getting rid of the worst option in favor of ridding ourselves of Bailey.

I have no interest in getting rid of Bailey. I'm just not buying that he is going to have a healthy season all of a sudden. If it was me, I would put the best 5 in the rotation and #6 in the bullpen. If you can make your rotation deeper and better for $7M it is worth it. It's not about what you add, it's about the bad starts you take out of the rotation and the depth that you have when (not if) one of your starters gets hurt or becomes ineffective.

If all of you are satisfied with having a chance to win the division and going no further, then here we are. I'm not satisfied with that, but maybe losing for so long has made that effort acceptable.

Bum

dougdirt
02-07-2012, 05:50 PM
I have no interest in getting rid of Bailey. I'm just not buying that he is going to have a healthy season all of a sudden. If it was me, I would put the best 5 in the rotation and #6 in the bullpen. If you can make your rotation deeper and better for $7M it is worth it. It's not about what you add, it's about the bad starts you take out of the rotation and the depth that you have when (not if) one of your starters gets hurt or becomes ineffective.

If all of you are satisfied with having a chance to win the division and going no further, then here we are. I'm not satisfied with that, but maybe losing for so long has made that effort acceptable.

Bum

The Cardinals won the world series last season with no starter having an ERA+ better than 107. So let's stop pretending that the Reds, or just about any other team in the playoffs, has no chance with a solid, but unspectacular rotation.

RANDY IN INDY
02-07-2012, 05:51 PM
While having Oswalt is intriguing, like others, I'm still not totally sure that I wouldn't rather have some flexibility at or near the trade deadline.