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TRF
01-31-2012, 11:56 AM
Who?

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7522833/cleveland-indians-get-international-league-mvp-russ-canzler-tampa-bay-rays?eleven=twelve

I love transactions like this. All Cleveland loses is cash. They get a guy that started figuring things out at age 24 (2010) has posted 2 consecutive seasons of .930+ OPS baseball, plays all three OF positions. And has experience at 3B.

Even if he doesn't work out, that is the type of transaction teams like the Reds should make. Cleveland didn't lose anything but a little money. And money comes back.

I bet he slots in as the 4th OF in CLE, with him possibly taking over one of the OF spots full time by season's end.

Edd Roush
01-31-2012, 12:29 PM
Who?

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7522833/cleveland-indians-get-international-league-mvp-russ-canzler-tampa-bay-rays?eleven=twelve

I love transactions like this. All Cleveland loses is cash. They get a guy that started figuring things out at age 24 (2010) has posted 2 consecutive seasons of .930+ OPS baseball, plays all three OF positions. And has experience at 3B.

Even if he doesn't work out, that is the type of transaction teams like the Reds should make. Cleveland didn't lose anything but a little money. And money comes back.

I bet he slots in as the 4th OF in CLE, with him possibly taking over one of the OF spots full time by season's end.


I completely agree, TRF. I just texted my buddy who is a Tribe fan and told him I thought it was a solid pick up. He is the kind of depth the Reds would have acquired in the case of a Votto/Bruce/Ludwick injury. He seems to have a good batting eye and slugs well. My buddy hates LaPorta (I still think LaPorta will turn it around), but I wonder if the Tribe consider Canzler as competition to LaPorta or more of Sizemore insurance.

TRF
01-31-2012, 12:41 PM
Dunno, but it's a brilliant pickup. He hit well in a league that isn't the PCL, and has posted an increase in his OBP every year since age 20 season, 2006. His SLG has also trended up with some dips along the way. IMO this was a bad transaction for TB. I'd have wanted talent, not money, but it is TB. They always want money.

PuffyPig
01-31-2012, 01:06 PM
How much cash was involved?

TRF
01-31-2012, 01:24 PM
Not stated yet.

But if i were to guess, $500K - $1M max.

RedlegJake
01-31-2012, 09:53 PM
Anytime a team can pickup a solid young player like Canzler for nothing but a small outlay of cash its a good transaction.

PuffyPig
01-31-2012, 10:50 PM
Anytime a team can pickup a solid young player like Canzler for nothing but a small outlay of cash its a good transaction.

How much cash was involved?

RedlegJake
01-31-2012, 10:56 PM
How much cash was involved?

Exact amount isn't stated but believed to be 500,000-$1M

PuffyPig
01-31-2012, 11:36 PM
Exact amount isn't stated but believed to be 500,000-$1M

Do you have a link, or is that an in-house guess?

RedlegJake
01-31-2012, 11:58 PM
Puffy - its an in house guess based on similar deals of minor leaguers over the last couple of years. All the sources I've found (there are several) simply say for "cash considerations" - my guess is half to a million. Purely my guesstimate, my friend. I'd be very surprised if it was more than that, or much less. Here are 2 links:

http://cleveland.indians.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120131&content_id=26523172&vkey=news_cle&c_id=cle

http://www.cleveland.com/tribe/index.ssf/2012/01/cleveland_indians_acquired_inf.html

As you'll see, no actual numbers are stated - and I couldn't find any in other sources. Not yet but I'll keep looking.

Patrick Bateman
02-01-2012, 12:54 AM
This was essentially a case of a guy that likely was going to be lost due to not being able to make the 40 man roster, and Cleveland was likley one of the few teams willing to give him a crack at their 40 man.

It's not a brilliant move as much as it is playing the roster numbers game. At this point, his track record isn't that of a guy who is likely going to be a useful force in the majors (a scouting report would be great here....... presumably he isn't much of a fielder, so unless he hits in the majors, he's essentially useless).

A good guy to stash in AAA if he is able to prove that he can mash, but there are lots of similar guys available who are more likely to be an asset in the majors.

mth123
02-01-2012, 04:02 AM
Exact amount isn't stated but believed to be 500,000-$1M

I'd guess a lot less, $50K to $100K. Enough to be more than a waiver claim, but not much. I wouldn't have minded the Reds taking a shot for that much, but he wouldn't have made the team in spring and Soto is at 1B in AAA and for all the talk of OF and 3B, 1B is his position. He may have been able to give LF a go in AAA. The Indians uncertain 1B situation makes him make more sense in Cleveland.

TRF
02-01-2012, 10:21 AM
He hasn't played much 1B at all the last two seasons.

TB didn't have to deal him, and dealing him for cash is selling short IMO. Get SOMETHING. For Cleveland, they just added a 25 year old power hitting OF. One that could supplant a starter. And they did it on the cheap.

Patrick Bateman
02-01-2012, 01:34 PM
He hasn't played much 1B at all the last two seasons.

TB didn't have to deal him, and dealing him for cash is selling short IMO. Get SOMETHING. For Cleveland, they just added a 25 year old power hitting OF. One that could supplant a starter. And they did it on the cheap.

They likely couldnt get something.
They were likely going to lose him in another avenue by not having him on the 40 man. If somebody was willing to give up more than 100k, presumably they would have been willing to take the better offer. They aren't run by Chuck Lamar anymore.

It takes two to tango.

Vottomatic
02-01-2012, 03:40 PM
I'd have rather had him than Ludwick.

This guy has upside. Ludwick is on the downside.

I know Ludwick has experience. But if Cansler is legit, you got your future LFer on the cheap. And the guy is only 25 and versatile.

Gotta give the Indians huge props for this deal.

PuffyPig
02-01-2012, 06:26 PM
I'd have rather had him than Ludwick.

This guy has upside. Ludwick is on the downside.

I know Ludwick has experience. But if Cansler is legit, you got your future LFer on the cheap. And the guy is only 25 and versatile.



If he's ligit...............

That's an awful big qualifer for a career minor leaguer. Too big a qualifier for a team who's going for it over the next few years.

TRF
02-01-2012, 06:31 PM
If he's ligit...............

That's an awful big qualifer for a career minor leaguer. Too big a qualifier for a team who's going for it over the next few years.

Career minor leaguer? at age 25? c'mon man...

LegallyMinded
02-01-2012, 08:40 PM
It's not a brilliant move as much as it is playing the roster numbers game. At this point, his track record isn't that of a guy who is likely going to be a useful force in the majors (a scouting report would be great here....... presumably he isn't much of a fielder, so unless he hits in the majors, he's essentially useless).



Fangraphs had this (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/russ-canzler-dan-johnson-and-the-quad-a-label/) to say of him:


When you dig deeper, Russ Canzler is far from perfect. Even the most optimistic scouting reports on him state that heís a poor defensive player (even at third and first base), and many scouts question his bat speed and athleticism. These arenít concerns that will show up in Triple-A stats, but they could make it difficult to translate successfully to the majors. If you canít play defense and your bat speed makes it difficult to catch up to major league pitching, youíll have a tough time hitting well enough to stick at first base in the majors.

That being said, it's still hard to give up on a guy at 25. Just recently, we've seen breakout years from Alex Gordon, at age 27, and Michael Morse, at age 28. I can hardly fault Cleveland for giving him a shot.

PuffyPig
02-01-2012, 08:56 PM
Career minor leaguer? at age 25? c'mon man...

He's spent his entire7 year career in the minors.......

PuffyPig
02-01-2012, 09:07 PM
Fangraphs had this (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/russ-canzler-dan-johnson-and-the-quad-a-label/) to say of him:



That being said, it's still hard to give up on a guy at 25. Just recently, we've seen breakout years from Alex Gordon, at age 27, and Michael Morse, at age 28. I can hardly fault Cleveland for giving him a shot.

Alex Gordon was a 3.1 WAR player as a 24 year old after being the 2nd pick in the draft.

Michael Morse was a 3rd round pick who had a OPS+ of 97 as a 23 year old rookie.

Russ Canzler was drafted in the 30rd round and has spent 7 years in the minors. He finally reached AAA last year, while with his 2nd organization.

I see two different types of apples and a turnip.

TRF
02-01-2012, 09:34 PM
Alex Gordon was a 3.1 WAR player as a 24 year old after being the 2nd pick in the draft.

Michael Morse was a 3rd round pick who had a OPS+ of 97 as a 23 year old rookie.

Russ Canzler was drafted in the 30rd round and has spent 7 years in the minors. He finally reached AAA last year, while with his 2nd organization.

I see two different types of apples and a turnip.

Then compare him to Ludwick. :D

I believe Ludwick was a late bloomer.

mth123
02-01-2012, 09:37 PM
You guys do realize that Canzler had been DFA'd prior to this deal. By a team without a long term solution at 1B no less. He wasn't going to fetch much in return. Surely not $500K. My guess is the Indians showed interest in a waiver claim and ponied up a little more than the waiver price to get him.

PuffyPig
02-01-2012, 09:43 PM
Then compare him to Ludwick. :D

I believe Ludwick was a late bloomer.

But why use the exception to disprove the norm?

No one is suggesting that he has no chance.

But some are suggesting he's a stud waiting to happen.

REDREAD
02-01-2012, 09:52 PM
Sure, no one would complain if the Reds picked up this guy for AAA depth.

But I can't see why anyone would prefer him to Ludwick.
The Reds have gone fishing with tons of guys like this.. Balentin, etc, etc.
I can't recall one of them panning out, although maybe it happened.

We're trying to win the pennant. We already have two projects with upside (Heisey, Franscisco) that can play LF. That's enough.
Adding a vet who hopefully has a low floor is the right move.

Patrick Bateman
02-01-2012, 10:48 PM
We should make the TRF all-star team!

First 3 picks:
Russell Branyan
Russ Canzler
Jeremy Horst

Just need 22 more.

Vottomatic
02-02-2012, 09:29 AM
How old was Votto when he made it to the majors? Stubbs? They were like 25 or 26 weren't they?

If Canzler went straight to the minors from high school, there's a difference than the college guys who go to college for 4 years.

I no way did I say he'd be a stud. My point is that I'd rather be looking for younger, longer term options, then signing the Gomes and Ludwick's every year. I'm tired of the revolving door and think continuity helps. Canzler may fail like Willy Mo Pena and Balentein did. But atleast the team would be searching for viable long term replacement options.

It's a moot point anyway. The guy is an Indian.

PuffyPig
02-02-2012, 09:36 AM
How old was Votto when he made it to the majors? Stubbs? They were like 25 or 26 weren't they?



Votto and Stubbs were high draft picks with lots of talent and obvious skills.

Votto was 23 when he made the majors. Stubbs was 24.

Canzler has spent 7 mostly "meh" seasons (until recently) in the minors, reaching AAA only last year. He'll be 26 when the 2012 season starts.

Again, looks like 2 apples and one turnip to me.

No one is saying Canzler can't succeed, but finding some comparison between him and Votto is quite the stretch.

Vottomatic
02-02-2012, 09:58 AM
Votto and Stubbs were high draft picks with lots of talent and obvious skills.

Votto was 23 when he made the majors. Stubbs was 24.

Canzler has spent 7 mostly "meh" seasons (until recently) in the minors, reaching AAA only last year. He'll be 26 when the 2012 season starts.

Again, looks like 2 apples and one turnip to me.

No one is saying Canzler can't succeed, but finding some comparison between him and Votto is quite the stretch.

I'm not trying to find a comparison. I'm simply saying 25 years old isn't that old to be making it to the majors. You missed my point. I'm not comparing his talent to Votto or Stubbs. I'm not even saying the guy is the answer. I'm saying he "might" be.

And you missed my point which is I'd rather be stockpiling younger talent as LF options than signing Gomes and Ludwick as filler for a year.

TRF
02-02-2012, 10:14 AM
We should make the TRF all-star team!

First 3 picks:
Russell Branyan
Russ Canzler
Jeremy Horst

Just need 22 more.

If I remember correctly, when I picked Branyan, all he did was hit was hit 30 HR's. As a Mariner. In that huge field.

I think, if a guy Posts a .938 OPS at AA, then follows that with a .930 OPS at AAA, AND it isn't in the PCL, then maybe, just maybe he's a safe bet for an .850 OPS in the majors.

Patrick Bateman
02-02-2012, 10:20 AM
If I remember correctly, when I picked Branyan, all he did was hit was hit 30 HR's. As a Mariner. In that huge field.

I think, if a guy Posts a .938 OPS at AA, then follows that with a .930 OPS at AAA, AND it isn't in the PCL, then maybe, just maybe he's a safe bet for an .850 OPS in the majors.

I was joking, it wasn't meant to disparage the players you do like. It was just humurous because when you like/dislike a player, you are extremely vocal about it and it usually leads to humerous debates one way or the other.

Like most people, sometimes you are right, sometimes you are wrong.

FWIW, I would say that about 29 teams certainly don't think he's a safe bet to OPS .850 in the majors. That is very difficult, and if you look at the guys who actually did that last year, it's not a significant list. The main issue with Canzler appears to be his scouting report, in addition to terrible fielding skills. Probably a lot of people see him as a tweener, more or less because he shares a lot of common traits with guys who turn out to be tweeners. Doesn't mean Canzler wont make it, but for those who want him to be the Reds primary LF'der need to see both sides (for one, it sounds like he cant play the position any better than Alonso, and there is a decent chance his bat speed will get eaten alive in the majors........ his most realistic upside is probably that of Jack Cust, who even with his semi-success as a slugger has never found a team in the National League prepared to give him regular playing time).

TRF
02-02-2012, 10:37 AM
perhaps I set the bar a bit high at .850.

.800 is more realistic. And that is still only 64 guys, 70ish if you take it down to 300 PA's which is what I figure is the most he'll get if he makes the OD team. Guys come from out of nowhere, it just happens. Ludwick was one. Nelson Cruz is one. Cecil Fielder was one. Mike Piazza was one. They do happen, and they happen every year it seems. To an extent, Cody Ross was one of those guys. But Ross never had a minor league season like Canzler did last year or the year before. Nelson Cruz' last two seasons in the minors showed what he was capable of. Huge numbers. Things just needed to click for him at the major league level.

Now, will it click for Canzler? I have no idea, but I wonder, in the last 10 years, how many guys posted consecutive seasons of .930+ OPS ball at AA and AAA and then went on to have not or little impact in MLB. Probably a few, but I'd wager not very many under age 26.

Bumstead
02-02-2012, 10:55 AM
We'll see. Sometimes teams get lucky in deals like this, but really not that often. Cleveland certainly has no thoughts of Canzler having an .830 OPS in MLB. They are just hoping he turns into something useful. In almost all cases guys like this are given up on for a reason; MLB scouting departments aren't generally ignorant when evaluating talent.

Bum

PuffyPig
02-02-2012, 11:02 AM
I'm not trying to find a comparison. I'm simply saying 25 years old isn't that old to be making it to the majors. You missed my point. I'm not comparing his talent to Votto or Stubbs. I'm not even saying the guy is the answer. I'm saying he "might" be.

And you missed my point which is I'd rather be stockpiling younger talent as LF options than signing Gomes and Ludwick as filler for a year.

We need a LF. We don't need a "might" this year. Especially one who is actually a firstbaseman/DH.

Luckwick is not signed as a filler.

And Canzler cannot be "stockpiled". He must be placed on the 25 man roster or go through waivers.

westofyou
02-02-2012, 11:04 AM
Holy DT Cromer Batman!!



The Rays had to like something in Canzler’s game to sign him in the first place, and he had plenty of options and cost-controlled years remaining. So why did Tampa Bay pull the plug on Canzler after one successful season? Ostensibly, due to the translatability concerns surrounding Canzler’s skill set. He lacks athleticism, which limits him defensively to first base and perhaps spot-start duty in the outfield. Canzler’s defensive ineptitude puts the burden on his bat, which is good and fine until you hear that his bat speed and approach are questionable. There is no guarantee that Canzler is anything more than a Quad-A slugger, and that the Rays, who are as [insert your adjectives of choice for smart and open-minded) as any organization out there, were willing to move on is something to ponder.


http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15961

lollipopcurve
02-02-2012, 11:07 AM
MLB scouting departments aren't generally ignorant when evaluating talent.

Wait a minute, what? When compared to guys with access to the Internet??!!??

TRF
02-02-2012, 11:08 AM
We'll see. Sometimes teams get lucky in deals like this, but really not that often. Cleveland certainly has no thoughts of Canzler having an .830 OPS in MLB. They are just hoping he turns into something useful. In almost all cases guys like this are given up on for a reason; MLB scouting departments aren't generally ignorant when evaluating talent.

Bum

I assume you have never seen the Pittsburgh Pirates play.

I maintain that scouting departments miss on guys like this every year. More to the point, someone invited Corey Patterson to ST again this year. It's topical because of Moneyball, the book and the movie, but the market is changing. If I can get even a .780 OPS from a guy that will make the league minimum, Why spend talent or more dollars on the same or even lesser production because I have a coach that thinks he can fix him, or because they like his tools?

Isn't hitting a tool?

I'd have rather had Canzler than Ludwick, but then I didn't even know who Canzler was. Apparently he's the reigning IL MVP. He turns 26 in April, he's coming off 2 .930 OPS seasons and he's entering his age prime years.

Stubbs first full MLB season came at age 25. But he wasn't considered a career minor leaguer because he signed out of college. Canzler signed out of HS.

The baseball economy is changing, and small market teams need to make moves that have high reward with lower risk. This is low risk.

REDREAD
02-02-2012, 02:23 PM
If I remember correctly, when I picked Branyan, all he did was hit was hit 30 HR's. As a Mariner. In that huge field.

I think, if a guy Posts a .938 OPS at AA, then follows that with a .930 OPS at AAA, AND it isn't in the PCL, then maybe, just maybe he's a safe bet for an .850 OPS in the majors.

I think a better arguement would be that the NL average OPS for LF was 748, according to this site: http://www.amazinavenue.com/2011/10/25/2494933/2011-postmortem-left-field

Could Canzler exceed 748 that enough to make up for his defensive deficiences?

Or more Reds oriented: Could he outperform Ludwick? IMO, I doubt he outperforms Luckwick. The Reds already have two young options for LF which are better than Canzler.

LegallyMinded
02-02-2012, 03:10 PM
perhaps I set the bar a bit high at .850.

.800 is more realistic. And that is still only 64 guys, 70ish if you take it down to 300 PA's which is what I figure is the most he'll get if he makes the OD team.

I think the problem is that even if a guy puts up an .800 OPS, there's still no guarantee he's worth a major league roster spot. Look at Mark Reynolds, for example: .806 OPS, and .3 WAR, well below the 2.0WAR or so you expect for an average major league player. Position and defense matter.

I know I said it's hard to give up on a guy at 25, but based on the scouting reports and his apparently atrocious defense, it seems like Canzler might be destined for those kinds of high OPS, low value seasons like Mark Reynolds' 2010, even if he does stick in the majors.

TRF
02-02-2012, 03:30 PM
Canzler isn't really a 3B. He isn't really a 1B either. he's been converted to the OF and over the last 2 years has logged 84 innings in the OF. TB must HATE his D at 1B. I'll give you that he is likely a horrid defender, and at 3B like Reynolds, that would be an issue. In LF? after seeing a decade of Dunn and Gomes? I really would not care. As much.

Here is why: his splits last year at AAA

vs. LH's .321 .393 .527 .920
vs. RH's .312 .404 .531 .934

Yes Please.

Bumstead
02-02-2012, 04:39 PM
Canzler isn't really a 3B. He isn't really a 1B either. he's been converted to the OF and over the last 2 years has logged 84 innings in the OF. TB must HATE his D at 1B. I'll give you that he is likely a horrid defender, and at 3B like Reynolds, that would be an issue. In LF? after seeing a decade of Dunn and Gomes? I really would not care. As much.

Here is why: his splits last year at AAA

vs. LH's .321 .393 .527 .920
vs. RH's .312 .404 .531 .934

Yes Please.

I think WOY pointed out what they didn't like. It wasn't just his poor defense. Roberto Petagine and Dallas Mcpherson clobbered AAA better than Canzler has and did it for years. Minor league success isn't a prerequisite for MLB success. Sometimes yea, sometimes nah...I think TB is one of the better organizations in developing and recognizing young talent. My money is on them, but you never know.

Bum

mth123
02-02-2012, 07:59 PM
This guy is a lottery ticket nothing more and not some one you sign instead of Ludwick. I would have been happy had the Reds taken a flyer on him for cheap, but he's not an answer, just another question at this point.

Cleveland just signed Casey Kotchman to play 1B (BTW, that's a team with 2 switch hitters and 7 LH hitters projected in the starting line-up). Canzler wiill probably be available again late in Spring.

TRF
02-03-2012, 10:17 AM
Ludwick is more of a scratch-off.

He hasn't been good in a while, but for some reason people seem to expect that JUST leaving Petco will fix him. Never mind that he was horrible when he left

PuffyPig
02-03-2012, 11:41 AM
Ludwick is more of a scratch-off.

He hasn't been good in a while, but for some reason people seem to expect that JUST leaving Petco will fix him. Never mind that he was horrible when he left


Ludwick is an extreme fly ball hitter. Petco and the NL West was the absolute worse place for an extreme flyball hitter. GABP and the Central is the absolute best place for an extreme fly ball hitter.

So there is a reason to expect some real improvement.

His lifetime HR/FB is 12.5% vs. 7.5% last year. If he did the exact same as last year with his usual FB rate he'd have gotten 23 HR's an increase of 9, which would by itself raise his OPS almost 100 points.

TRF
02-03-2012, 01:32 PM
PNC Park is supposed to be pretty good for flyball hitters. guess he was in shell shock from Petco.

Bumstead
02-03-2012, 01:59 PM
PNC Park is supposed to be pretty good for flyball hitters. guess he was in shell shock from Petco.

For the record, I'm not a fan of the Ludwick signing either. I wanted Cody Ross and based on the two players contracts, I would take Ross in a heartbeat, but we will see. I think Ludwick is a better risk for Cincy, a team contending, than Canzler would be. I actually hope Heisey plays a lot now... :p

mth123
02-04-2012, 01:45 PM
Rays got $100K for Canzler.

TRF
02-06-2012, 11:59 AM
Rays got $100K for Canzler.

That's a lot less than i was figuring.

Very good deal for the Tribe.

mth123
02-06-2012, 01:31 PM
That's a lot less than i was figuring.

Very good deal for the Tribe.

The Rays had already DFA'd him. They are lucky to have gotten that much.

Bumstead
02-06-2012, 01:53 PM
I imagine this will end up at least as good a deal for TB as it turns out to be for Cleveland.

Bum

TRF
02-06-2012, 02:55 PM
If he was out of options, and I am guessing he is, then Cleveland is figuring he'll be on the OD roster. $100G may be a pittance, but no point in wasting it. He's had two very solid seasons at AA and AAA the last two years. I'd say he's turned that corner. Maybe all he is, is a bat. Maybe. But 26 isn't old.

mth123
02-06-2012, 03:02 PM
Cleveland is bvery lefty heavy. Canzler may stick as RH alternative to Kotchman, Hafner ot Brantley, but he's more likely a waste of $75K.

TRF
02-06-2012, 03:29 PM
Cleveland is bvery lefty heavy. Canzler may stick as RH alternative to Kotchman, Hafner ot Brantley, but he's more likely a waste of $75K.

Sometimes guys develop late. Canzler is 6'2'' 220lbs according to baseball-reference. he's had 5 minor league seasons with a .790 OPS or higher. Something clicked in 2010. I don't know what, but something. that cannot be disputed. He changed something. His swing, workout, dedication to the game, something.

Sure has been a lot of interesting stories this offseason. Lots of teams and players for me to follow outside the Queen City this year.

mth123
02-06-2012, 03:59 PM
Sometimes guys develop late. Canzler is 6'2'' 220lbs according to baseball-reference. he's had 5 minor league seasons with a .790 OPS or higher. Something clicked in 2010. I don't know what, but something. that cannot be disputed. He changed something. His swing, workout, dedication to the game, something.

Sure has been a lot of interesting stories this offseason. Lots of teams and players for me to follow outside the Queen City this year.

I see the stats too. When he was DFA'd, I thought the same as you - that he might be worth a flyer. I still think so, but the reality is that a team that has proven to be pretty darned good at talent evaluation, and loathe to give up any of it while its cheap, DFA'd him anyway even though they have no internal candidate to develop into a long term 1B. Afterwards, no one claimed him on waivers and the team that finally acquired him signed a more established player for his same position. Seems like all of baseball is skeptical of him. I get that teams can make mistakes on guys, but its pretty rare that everybody makes a mistake on a guy. Chances are slim of him doing anything. I see the Korean Baseball League in his future.

TRF
02-06-2012, 05:10 PM
I don't see why the chances are slim. What I see is that a guy has clearly turned a corner, and had he been drafted out of college, he'd have probably made his MLB debut last last year, maybe the year before. But because he was drafted out of HS, he gets labeled as a "career" minor leaguer.

At age 25.

This isn't Petagine. This isn't Cromer. It's a 26 year old player that got his 1st MLB taste, however brief last year. He might be them, true. but it is comparing apples to much older apples... similar but not necessarily the same.

I'm of the opinion that if you can find a bat for cheap, you play that bat. Have you looked at Cleveland's depth chart? I see at least 3 positions for him: LF, RF, 1B plus time at DH. It isn't like that team is very good offensively.

Bumstead
02-06-2012, 05:44 PM
I don't see why the chances are slim. What I see is that a guy has clearly turned a corner, and had he been drafted out of college, he'd have probably made his MLB debut last last year, maybe the year before. But because he was drafted out of HS, he gets labeled as a "career" minor leaguer.

At age 25.

This isn't Petagine. This isn't Cromer. It's a 26 year old player that got his 1st MLB taste, however brief last year. He might be them, true. but it is comparing apples to much older apples... similar but not necessarily the same.

I'm of the opinion that if you can find a bat for cheap, you play that bat. Have you looked at Cleveland's depth chart? I see at least 3 positions for him: LF, RF, 1B plus time at DH. It isn't like that team is very good offensively.

Petagine could hit at AAA at 25/26...So could Dallas McPherson...you ask why the chances are slim: because sometimes minor league stats are not indicative of MLB success; baseball people actually watch these players play baseball, they don't sit in their basements and look at stats. He may provide some production, but most likely he will hit the waiver wire again and end up on someone's AAA team or in Japan or Korea. Is he worth a flyer? Sure. Is he an example of something the Reds should have done vs signing Ludwick? No way.

Bum

TRF
02-06-2012, 05:55 PM
Petagine could hit at AAA at 25/26...So could Dallas McPherson...you ask why the chances are slim: because sometimes minor league stats are not indicative of MLB success; baseball people actually watch these players play baseball, they don't sit in their basements and look at stats. He may provide some production, but most likely he will hit the waiver wire again and end up on someone's AAA team or in Japan or Korea. Is he worth a flyer? Sure. Is he an example of something the Reds should have done vs signing Ludwick? No way.

Bum

The same Ludwick that has exactly 1 great season under his belt? the one that BURST on the scene at age 29?

He's the model for guys like Canzler. In fact it was Ludwick's age 27 & 28 seasons in the minors that propelled him to a full time position.

He's exactly the kind of guy you sign over a 33 year old declining skills vet. You get Ludwick when he's breaking out, whatever age that is, not when it's over.

JaxRed
02-06-2012, 06:06 PM
By the way, Cromer had over a .900 OPS in the majors. So he hit there too, when they gave him a shot.

Bumstead
02-06-2012, 06:12 PM
The same Ludwick that has exactly 1 great season under his belt? the one that BURST on the scene at age 29?

He's the model for guys like Canzler. In fact it was Ludwick's age 27 & 28 seasons in the minors that propelled him to a full time position.

He's exactly the kind of guy you sign over a 33 year old declining skills vet. You get Ludwick when he's breaking out, whatever age that is, not when it's over.

Well, you go run Cleveland and I will run a contender...Ludwick has had a season and some other reasonable ones which are that many more than Canzler has had. I'm not a big Ludwick supporter but a contender does not sign someone like Canzler if they are going to have to rely on him, they sign someone who has done it before. Signing Canzler and Ludwick wouldn't have bothered me. He's just a flyer, nothing to get all worked up about.

Between this thread and the Oswalt thread, I'm surprised by the number of people that would rather stick with or add mediocrity rather than go for a player that could possibly really impact the Reds chances of advancing beyond just winning the division.

Anyway, I agree to disagree and I'm sure you will update us if Canzler is hitting .300 after 1 week of spring training. As for Ludwick, I think there were better options in the same price range but I would rather have Ludwick than be hoping Canzler 1) can play LF, which is debatable, and 2) pans out with the bat.

Bum

mth123
02-06-2012, 06:15 PM
I don't see why the chances are slim. What I see is that a guy has clearly turned a corner, and had he been drafted out of college, he'd have probably made his MLB debut last last year, maybe the year before. But because he was drafted out of HS, he gets labeled as a "career" minor leaguer.

At age 25.

This isn't Petagine. This isn't Cromer. It's a 26 year old player that got his 1st MLB taste, however brief last year. He might be them, true. but it is comparing apples to much older apples... similar but not necessarily the same.

I'm of the opinion that if you can find a bat for cheap, you play that bat. Have you looked at Cleveland's depth chart? I see at least 3 positions for him: LF, RF, 1B plus time at DH. It isn't like that team is very good offensively.

He's not going to play ahead of Choo, Hafner or Kotchman. He may spot in against LHP in one of those spots, but he won't be a starter. He may challenge Brantley, but I seriously doubt it. More likely, the Indians find a CF option and move Sizemore to LF.

Again, I think the chances of the best run organizaton in basball giving up on him even though he plays a clear position of need for them, and all teams passing on him and the team that eventually got him going out and getting somebdy else afterwards all being mistakes while your hunch is right is pretty unlikely. I don't care how old he is or what his stat line says, a lot of people who know a lot more about him and about what it takes say he's probably not likely to be a success. If it was just one organization or a couple who have a history of missing, I'd be right there with you, but for me its too much evidence to the contrary.

dougdirt
02-06-2012, 06:17 PM
Petagine could hit at AAA at 25/26...So could Dallas McPherson...you ask why the chances are slim: because sometimes minor league stats are not indicative of MLB success; baseball people actually watch these players play baseball, they don't sit in their basements and look at stats. He may provide some production, but most likely he will hit the waiver wire again and end up on someone's AAA team or in Japan or Korea. Is he worth a flyer? Sure. Is he an example of something the Reds should have done vs signing Ludwick? No way.

Bum

Am I the only person who looks at stats outside of the basement?

Bumstead
02-06-2012, 06:20 PM
Am I the only person who looks at stats outside of the basement?

Probably!!! :laugh:

TRF
02-06-2012, 07:02 PM
Well, you go run Cleveland and I will run a contender...Ludwick has had a season and some other reasonable ones which are that many more than Canzler has had. I'm not a big Ludwick supporter but a contender does not sign someone like Canzler if they are going to have to rely on him, they sign someone who has done it before. Signing Canzler and Ludwick wouldn't have bothered me. He's just a flyer, nothing to get all worked up about.

Between this thread and the Oswalt thread, I'm surprised by the number of people that would rather stick with or add mediocrity rather than go for a player that could possibly really impact the Reds chances of advancing beyond just winning the division.

Anyway, I agree to disagree and I'm sure you will update us if Canzler is hitting .300 after 1 week of spring training. As for Ludwick, I think there were better options in the same price range but I would rather have Ludwick than be hoping Canzler 1) can play LF, which is debatable, and 2) pans out with the bat.

Bum

Well, let's see. The 2006 cardinals finished in 1st place, won the World Series and the very next year turned LF over to... GASP! Ryan Ludwick!

And while they certainly fell that following year, I am pretty sure they expected to contend. And they even let him play in 2008 too.

And no, I won't be updating you weekly on Canzler. I point to him as an example, because he's exactly the type of player Jocketty has taken a chance on in the past, you know, when he did that exact same thing in STL. In fact it was more extreme as Ludwick was much older. But I get that you prefer a guy that has done it before.

Maybe he can get KGJ to come back. He was successful before. How about Pat Burrell. He's had success.

LF isn't a demanding defensive position. Canzler apparently can hit.


He's not going to play ahead of Choo, Hafner or Kotchman. He may spot in against LHP in one of those spots, but he won't be a starter. He may challenge Brantley, but I seriously doubt it. More likely, the Indians find a CF option and move Sizemore to LF.

Kotchman? really? Casey Kotchman is beyond bad as an offensive 1B.

mth123
02-06-2012, 07:10 PM
Kotchman 2011 - .306/.378/.422/.800 in 563 PAs for Tampa Bay. Super defender and the Indians just signed him for $3 Million, a week after they already had Canzler on the roster.

Kotchman isn't my cup of tea either as 1B go, but the Indians seem to think otherwise (and Tampa Bay too since they DFAd Canzler after Kotchman walked as a FA) and he's probably better than Canzler and certainly would be the starter with Canzler waiting for him to fail (for at least 3 or 4 months) before he'd get a shot and even then he'd still need to pass Matt Laporta to be second in line.

PuffyPig
02-06-2012, 08:15 PM
I point to him as an example, because he's exactly the type of player Jocketty has taken a chance on in the past, you know, when he did that exact same thing in STL. In fact it was more extreme as Ludwick was much older.

Actually that is not correct. Walt has taken chances on highly skilled guys who haven't produced due to injuries or whatever,

Canzler is a low drafted guy who wasn't considered a viable prospect until two years ago. He lacks fielding and running skills and will only go as far as his bat takes him, which scouts say will not play well in the majors.