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View Full Version : National Shopping John Lannan



alett12
02-02-2012, 02:06 PM
He's 27 the nats just won thier arbitration hearing with him for $5M and they are shopping him because they have a full rotation after signing Edwin Jackson. 3.70 ERA in 184IP last season if it wasn't for the fact the reds have no more prospects he would be an interesting option of a guy to trade for to be a solid 3 or 4.

[deleted]
02-02-2012, 03:06 PM
His peripherals are all very weak and he annually out-performs his FIP, pointing toward a possible crash-and-burn scenario. I'd love to take him as rotation insurance, but 5 million is too steep a price, especially if we have to give up talent for him on top of that.

Pass.

alett12
02-03-2012, 12:04 PM
;2532090']His peripherals are all very weak and he annually out-performs his FIP, pointing toward a possible crash-and-burn scenario. I'd love to take him as rotation insurance, but 5 million is too steep a price, especially if we have to give up talent for him on top of that.

Pass.

This is why I do not believe in advanced metrics. They aren't exact formula's and can be out preformed because they are derived from other statistics.

Nathan
02-03-2012, 02:05 PM
This is why I do not believe in advanced metrics. They aren't exact formula's and can be out preformed because they are derived from other statistics.

I was thinking the same thing.

A championship GM would build their team around the strengths of itself. For instance, would you want a lot of fly ball pitchers pitching in GABP? Probably not. Even if they only posted a .01% HR rate on fly balls throughout their career at Petco, or whatever. Chances are, groundball pitchers (and I don't know what Lannan's tendencies are) would be better suited for this team.

Now, I'm no expert, but, how did the Reds' pitchers do era vs fip? Without looking, I'd expect just about all of them out performed their FIP last year. Simply because the Reds' defense is among the best in the league. Does that make them "Lucky" or "Good" or "Bad" no. That just means Jocketty, et al has put together a team that feeds off its strengths.

alett12
02-03-2012, 02:15 PM
I was thinking the same thing.

A championship GM would build their team around the strengths of itself. For instance, would you want a lot of fly ball pitchers pitching in GABP? Probably not. Even if they only posted a .01% HR rate on fly balls throughout their career at Petco, or whatever. Chances are, groundball pitchers (and I don't know what Lannan's tendencies are) would be better suited for this team.

Now, I'm no expert, but, how did the Reds' pitchers do era vs fip? Without looking, I'd expect just about all of them out performed their FIP last year. Simply because the Reds' defense is among the best in the league. Does that make them "Lucky" or "Good" or "Bad" no. That just means Jocketty, et al has put together a team that feeds off its strengths.

I know for a fact that Cueto and leake probably out preformed theirs the rest of the staff i'm not sure on.

[deleted]
02-03-2012, 02:32 PM
This is why I do not believe in advanced metrics. They aren't exact formula's and can be out preformed because they are derived from other statistics.

So what do you believe in? Traditional stats? Those aren't "exact formula's" either (not that anyone ever claimed them to be). So what are we supposed to go on here? "Lannan seems like a nice guy, the kids would like him... Sure, throw 5 mil at him." Stats are stats, saber or not. We look at what the guy has done, evaluate, and make a decision from there. Making specific reference to advanced metrics in my initial post is pointless and only serves to widen the gap between a perceived difference in "normal" and "advanced" statistics: I would pass on Lannan based on any of his numbers. He's simply not worth the asking price. He can't strike batters out and walks too many.

Nathan is right though - we should absolutely consider context when looking at stats. Context is EVERYTHING. Lannan is a groundball pitcher - which we all know is perfect for Cincinnati. As I said, I would love him as insurance. I just don't believe he's worth the talent + cash it would take for him (unless Washington ate almost all of it and accepted nobodies).

As for FIP - Cueto, Leake and Arroyo outperformed theirs (though I'm not sure it's fair to say Arroyo was able to "outperform" anything last season). Bailey and Volquez did not. It's true the Reds defense is elite - but that doesn't mean we can't pull information out of these numbers. Cueto's FIP was over an entire run higher than his ERA - hence why every person remotely involved with Major League Baseball expects him to regress, and hard.

The moral of the story is that no one stat tells you everything about a player. Context is key, but don't dismiss things off-handedly because of a "saber" stigma.

Larkin88
02-03-2012, 03:16 PM
I know for a fact that Cueto and leake probably out preformed theirs the rest of the staff i'm not sure on.

You know for a fact something, probably, huh?

Well in this case, yes. You are correct. And thank you for tacitly proving the benefit of FIP as a metric and acknowledging that evaluating it against ERA gives you a more complete understanding of things like the defense the pitcher has behind him, or propensity to perhaps regress. See how that worked? Not so tough, huh?

Like [deleted] said, context is king in everything.

[deleted]
02-03-2012, 03:29 PM
Ha, I was this close to mentioning the "probably I know this is fact" thing, but held out. Nice point on showing how the critics have, in a roundabout way, proved the value of something like FIP.

OGB
02-04-2012, 02:48 PM
This is why I do not believe in advanced metrics. They aren't exact formula's and can be out preformed because they are derived from other statistics.

I tend to agree. Can anyone explain to me why FIP is not a stupid stat? The numbers appear pretty arbitrary to me--mutiply this by 13, mutiply this by 3, etc. It's been mentioned that Cueto's FIP indicates he'll regress this year. Isn't that just because he had a low K total? Obviously, dominant pitchers tend to have high K totals, but you can be a great pitcher without striking a lot of guys out.

harmony
02-04-2012, 08:55 PM
A better option than John Lannan might be another lefthander under his team's control for two more years: Seattle's Jason Vargas.

Lannan has a 2012 salary of $5 million and Vargas a 2012 salary of $4.85 million even though Lannan has been valued at only 2.5 WAR in 328 innings over the past two seasons while Vargas has been valued at 5.0 WAR in 393.2 innings over the same period. Of course, Lannan's groundball tendencies might play better at the Great American Ball Park than the somewhat diminishing flyball tendencies of Vargas.

The Mariners have starting depth with Felix Hernandez, Blake Beavan, Hisashi Iwakuma, Hector Noesi, Kevin Millwood, Oliver Perez and Charlie Furbush with touted prospects Danny Hultzen, James Paxton, Taijuan Walker and Erasmo Ramirez standing by.

However, I'm not sure the Reds have the trade chips the Mariners would want.

The DARK
02-05-2012, 02:48 AM
Jeff Francis has been worth 4.7 WAR over the past two seasons in 287 innings. I'm not saying that to claim that the other guys are worthless, but there's a lot more we need to look at when we say that Francis is only worth a minor league deal and Lannan/Vargas are worth giving up value for. There are plenty of good statistical and non-statistical reasons why this is the case, and you can't just ignore either if you're a GM.

Still, I'm not convinced that any of these guys have a real spot other than Louisville if they were to join the team. Many of Vargas's projections for this season are already worse than Arroyo's, while Lannan is 5 million dollars towards a guy that is due for a big regression. Neither of them have Arroyo's leadership, durability, or clubhouse experience. The back of our rotation seems pretty solid, all things considered.

alett12
02-06-2012, 01:52 PM
I tend to agree. Can anyone explain to me why FIP is not a stupid stat? The numbers appear pretty arbitrary to me--mutiply this by 13, mutiply this by 3, etc. It's been mentioned that Cueto's FIP indicates he'll regress this year. Isn't that just because he had a low K total? Obviously, dominant pitchers tend to have high K totals, but you can be a great pitcher without striking a lot of guys out.

Exactly you can not look at the new metrics and say they are correct because they can't account for pitching styles or for ballparks and if you say they can you are obviously an idiot.