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brm7675
02-06-2012, 01:18 PM
ESPN baseball boy Buster Onley came out with his preseason picks of playoff teams and our Reds were not one of them. I believe he has the Phils/Cards/Dbacks as divisional winners with the WC being the Nationals and Braves I think...

Big Red Hoss
02-06-2012, 01:23 PM
Wow I am surprised. This is something I would expect out Tim Kurkreyn (sp). Btw I hate him more then I hate Mark May on the football side of espn. Buster on the other hand seemed to always have a good head and something good to say. I respect his opinion and I hope the reds prove him wrong in a big way.

alett12
02-06-2012, 02:16 PM
These analysists are all using WAR which if you are into that it makes sense but that doesn't take into acount the presence of Albert in a lineup or the absence of Larussa and dave duncan in the dugout

zacharync
02-06-2012, 02:34 PM
Is there a link? Did he give an explanation to his reasoning?

Jefferson24
02-06-2012, 03:20 PM
Is there a link? Did he give an explanation to his reasoning?

He probably is reasoning that the Cardinal have an uncanny history of success even when they shouldn't have. Just look at last year, they loose their #1 or #2 however you want count Wainwright and still end up winning the whole thing.

They loose Albert this year but get Wainwright back. They loose their manager and pitching coach. They probably still make out okay in the end. Most teams I would write off if their #1 pitcher went down for the whole year. I would also believe that many teams would struggle if they lost their best position player, manager and pitching coach, but for some reason I think the Cards will be just fine. I hope I am wrong.

brm7675
02-06-2012, 03:56 PM
Is there a link? Did he give an explanation to his reasoning?

He tweeted it...

bounty37h
02-06-2012, 04:58 PM
I dont agree, but until we prove we can win consistantly, and the Cards seem to, they are going to be the favorite. We both have big changes this coming season, but they have to be worked out on the field.

redsfanmia
02-06-2012, 05:07 PM
He probably sees an offense that will lead the world in strike outs and a team with no legitimate lead off hitter or clean up hitter. Any team banking on Scott Rolen to produce has no chance of winning a division.

IamRV
02-06-2012, 05:57 PM
lost - lose
loose - tight

Nathan
02-06-2012, 07:22 PM
He probably sees an offense that will lead the world in strike outs and a team with no legitimate lead off hitter or clean up hitter. Any team banking on Scott Rolen to produce has no chance of winning a division.

1.) The Reds' didn't lead the league in strikeouts last year. Weren't really even all that close.

2.) Lineup construction is way over-rated. You can think of a million different theories on how to put together a line-up, and after the first inning, it's doesn't matter.

zacharync
02-06-2012, 07:35 PM
Not shocked to see the Cards ahead of the Reds for reasons already mentioned. I guess I am just surprised to see him mention BOTH the Braves and Nats over the Reds. I realize their rotations might be better than ours, but the Reds offense and bullpen should easily make up any differential.

RedsfaninMT
02-06-2012, 08:02 PM
These picks make no sense. If the Braves and Nationals are truly good teams, but the Phils are going to take the division, wouldn't you think they would beat up on each other, along with the Marlins? Their only pansy in the division is the Mets.

The Reds, on the other hand, might be in a fight with the Cards and Brewers, but also get to play a lot of games against the Cubs, Pirates and Astros.

In the West, I suspect the Diamondbacks and Giants will beat each other up pretty badly, and the Dodgers won't be Astro-level bad. And after the Reds sent 5 all stars (I'm kidding) to the Padres, they won't be so bad either.

The Reds have a better team than last year + softer schedule = more wins & playoffs.

[deleted]
02-07-2012, 01:33 AM
Agreed - it definitely makes sense to pick St. Louis over us given their superior pitching + a league-leading offense that shouldn't miss too much of a beat, but I think we have an advantage over two good Atlanta and Washington teams because of our comparatively weaker division/schedule.

alett12
02-07-2012, 08:49 AM
They went through this on MLB Network's Hot Stove and based on WAR the c
St. Louis should win. I don't see it just because you can't figure the value of a guy in a lineup until you see what happens when you take them out.

brad1176
02-07-2012, 11:39 AM
I don't buy the fact that St Louis has a better rotation. Wainright's coming back from TJ, very likely to have control problems and limited innings. Carpenter got beat like a drum until he magically figured things out down the stretch, I'd say he regresses a great deal this year. Lohse and Westbrook are, well Lohse and Westbrook, average at best. Garcia is the lone pitcher that will stand out. THEN you subtract one of if not THE best pitching coach and you get a recipe for disaster.

alett12
02-07-2012, 12:02 PM
I don't buy the fact that St Louis has a better rotation. Wainright's coming back from TJ, very likely to have control problems and limited innings. Carpenter got beat like a drum until he magically figured things out down the stretch, I'd say he regresses a great deal this year. Lohse and Westbrook are, well Lohse and Westbrook, average at best. Garcia is the lone pitcher that will stand out. THEN you subtract one of if not THE best pitching coach and you get a recipe for disaster.

And you take out one of the best managers in baseball history.

brad1176
02-07-2012, 12:05 PM
And you take out one of the best managers in baseball history.

Yep, almost forgot about him, I was thinking too much about just the pitching side of the team.

takealeake
02-07-2012, 01:24 PM
Good, I don't want anyone picking us, because we all see how ridiculous the preseason projections are come the end of the year. They'll pick Yankees or Angels vs. Phils, and it will be Reds vs. Rays or something.

alett12
02-07-2012, 01:44 PM
Good, I don't want anyone picking us, because we all see how ridiculous the preseason projections are come the end of the year. They'll pick Yankees or Angels vs. Phils, and it will be Reds vs. Rays or something.

I'm hoping for a Reds vs. Tigers or Reds vs. Rangers matchup personally but that is very true.

[deleted]
02-07-2012, 02:44 PM
I don't buy the fact that St Louis has a better rotation. Wainright's coming back from TJ, very likely to have control problems and limited innings. Carpenter got beat like a drum until he magically figured things out down the stretch, I'd say he regresses a great deal this year. Lohse and Westbrook are, well Lohse and Westbrook, average at best. Garcia is the lone pitcher that will stand out. THEN you subtract one of if not THE best pitching coach and you get a recipe for disaster.

This could definitely be the case, but we have to be careful not to immediately assume negatives for our opponents and positives for us. Wainwright was one of the absolute best pitchers in the league before getting hurt; it's okay to assume he won't bounce back, but someone like Arroyo will? At this point, Leake and Bailey are simply average as well - they could break through, but they could just as easily not. Garcia is great, and while Carpenter is getting older, he's been consistently awesome for almost 10 years. I wouldn't expect him to just fall off a cliff. He might regress some, but Cueto almost certainly will too.

brad1176
02-07-2012, 04:22 PM
;2533688']This could definitely be the case, but we have to be careful not to immediately assume negatives for our opponents and positives for us. Wainwright was one of the absolute best pitchers in the league before getting hurt; it's okay to assume he won't bounce back, but someone like Arroyo will? At this point, Leake and Bailey are simply average as well - they could break through, but they could just as easily not. Garcia is great, and while Carpenter is getting older, he's been consistently awesome for almost 10 years. I wouldn't expect him to just fall off a cliff. He might regress some, but Cueto almost certainly will too.

I'm not assuming positives for us, not sure how you get that from what I posted. I agree with you on our staff too, I've said Arroyo was the worst pitcher in the majors last year. Leake and Bailey are just average at best. Yes, Cueto could regress, but it's much more likely that Carpenter will giving his age and his performance for much of last season. He somehow figured things out at the end, good for him.

What I was getting at in the post was people are automatically assuming that the Cards have one of the best rotations and I'm not buying it based on what I said in the post.

Roush's socks
02-07-2012, 09:02 PM
The Reds are my team and I think they had a good offseason. But the truth is they have a lot of ? marks.
SS- Cozart is an unproven rookie and his backups are below average
3B- Rolen is on the decline and Francisco could be a flop
C- Mesoraco is a rookie who struggled last year. Ramon is gone
CF- Stubbs may or may not improve. He needs to be better
LF- No big bat in LF
RF- Bruce is already good, but he may never be elite
SP- Bailey, Leake and Arroyo could all be average or worse

Really there aren't a lot of sure things. The positive is that they have a lot of young players with talent and they added a TOR starter and a good closer. I'm looking forward to the season but I'm not shocked the Reds aren't being picked to win the division.

RedsfaninMT
02-07-2012, 09:08 PM
The Reds are my team and I think they had a good offseason. But the truth is they have a lot of ? marks.
SS- Cozart is an unproven rookie and his backups are below average
3B- Rolen is on the decline and Francisco could be a flop
C- Mesoraco is a rookie who struggled last year. Ramon is gone
CF- Stubbs may or may not improve. He needs to be better
LF- No big bat in LF
RF- Bruce is already good, but he may never be elite
SP- Bailey, Leake and Arroyo could all be average or worse

Really there aren't a lot of sure things. The positive is that they have a lot of young players with talent and they added a TOR starter and a good closer. I'm looking forward to the season but I'm not shocked the Reds aren't being picked to win the division.

Points well made, but the same can be said for the Cards. Wainright is back from TJ and nobody know how he will do. Carpenter is a year older and showed a decline last year. Garcia pitched a lot of innings and might regress. Furcal did okay after his aquisition, but he is not young. Berkman may regress to his form of two years ago. Craig is recovering from injury and so on.

[deleted]
02-07-2012, 09:37 PM
I think the difference in the two rotations is this:

For the Reds to have the better rotation, they need two breakthroughs (Leake and Bailey) and one COLOSSAL bounce-back (Arroyo).

For the Cards to have the better rotation, they just need everyone to pitch how they've been pitching.

Which seems more likely? Not to say the Reds don't have a chance, I can definitely see them taking the Central.

[deleted]
02-07-2012, 09:42 PM
And I wouldn't say Carpenter declined last year, or is even showing his age yet: he threw the second most innings of his career in 2011 and posted a lot of numbers that are right up there with his best years.

texasdave
02-07-2012, 10:27 PM
Player ERA K/9 BB/9
Latos 3.38 8.9 2.6
Cueto 3.63 6.4 2.9
Bailey 4.28 7.1 2.8
Leake 4.42 6.4 2.4
Arroyo 4.84 5.1 2.4
Oswalt 3.68 6.7 2.3

Total-A 4.08 6.8 2.6
Total-O 3.86 7.1 2.6

Waino 3.12 8.0 2.5
Carpr 3.49 6.8 2.2
Garcia 3.58 7.3 2.7
Lohse 4.37 5.5 2.6
Westbrk 4.52 5.4 3.4
Oswalt 3.68 6.7 2.3

Total-W 3.73 6.7 2.6
Total-O 3.60 6.9 2.4

These numbers were derived by using ZIPS projections. I understand they are simply projections but thought they were interesting to look at.
If neither team signs Oswalt ZIPS has the Cardinals five basic starters ERA being better than the Reds five basic starters ERA - 3.73 to 4.08. If the Reds were lucky enough to sign Oswalt and he replaced Arroyo the gap narrows - 3.73 to 3.86. If the Cardinals sign Oswalt and he replaced Westbrook the gap widens - 3.60 to 4.08.
Quite a difference. Once again these are projections and anything can happen.

Tadasimha
02-07-2012, 10:33 PM
Strictly from the point of view of the Reds, either they improved against him or he declined somewhat:

In five starts against the Reds in 2010, Carpenter was 5-0 with an ERA of 1.78 and the Reds BA was .179 over 35.1 innings.

He also had five starts against Cincinnati in 2011, but his record was 2-1, his ERA grew to 4.19 and the Reds BA grew to .237 over 34.1 innings.

[deleted]
02-07-2012, 10:39 PM
Strictly from the point of view of the Reds, either they improved against him or he declined somewhat:

In five starts against the Reds in 2010, Carpenter was 5-0 with an ERA of 1.78 and the Reds BA was .179 over 35.1 innings.

He also had five starts against Cincinnati in 2011, but his record was 2-1, his ERA grew to 4.19 and the Reds BA grew to .237 over 34.1 innings.

This is certainly a welcome trend, but I don't think it dispels Carpenter's ability to block our way into the post-season. As an exaggerated example, he could go 0-3 with a 6.00 ERA against us next season, but if he continues to trounce the rest of the NL (to say, a 18-2 2.40 ERA tune) then he'll still have killed this team.

Hence why the "who cares if Oswalt signs with St. Louis, we figured him out!" argument makes no sense to me.

Tadasimha
02-07-2012, 11:15 PM
;2533904']This is certainly a welcome trend, but I don't think it dispels Carpenter's ability to block our way into the post-season. As an exaggerated example, he could go 0-3 with a 6.00 ERA against us next season, but if he continues to trounce the rest of the NL (to say, a 18-2 2.40 ERA tune) then he'll still have killed this team.

Hence why the "who cares if Oswalt signs with St. Louis, we figured him out!" argument makes no sense to me.

Carpenter pulled off similar years in 05 and 09 but his career winning percentage is .610 and career ERA is 3.76. Plus he's coming off two straight seasons of over 230 innings pitched. Last time he did that (05/06), he needed Tommy John surgery and it took him two years to get back to form - and now he's four years older.

Oswalts W/L numbers against the NL Central in 2011: 3-2 (2 wins coming against the Cubs and Astros, plus a win and loss to the Cards); 2010: 4-3 (2 wins v. Pirates, 1 each Cubs and Brewers, losses to Cubs, Pirates and 2 to the Reds); 2009: 1-4 (a victory over the Cubs, losses to Cubs, Pirates and 2 to the Cards). I don't think he's that much of a game changer that it would put either the Reds or the Cardinals immediately to the fore front in the division.

alett12
02-08-2012, 01:33 PM
;2533688']This could definitely be the case, but we have to be careful not to immediately assume negatives for our opponents and positives for us. Wainwright was one of the absolute best pitchers in the league before getting hurt; it's okay to assume he won't bounce back, but someone like Arroyo will? At this point, Leake and Bailey are simply average as well - they could break through, but they could just as easily not. Garcia is great, and while Carpenter is getting older, he's been consistently awesome for almost 10 years. I wouldn't expect him to just fall off a cliff. He might regress some, but Cueto almost certainly will too.

There is a differnce when it comes to coming back from tommy john and a combination of back stiffness, mono, and carpal tunnel. I expect bronson to actually be better than Wainwright just due to the fact it generally takes two years to fully recover from tommy john and as long as bronson starts the season healthy i think he will be fine.

Big Red Hoss
02-08-2012, 01:52 PM
There is a differnce when it comes to coming back from tommy john and a combination of back stiffness, mono, and carpal tunnel. I expect bronson to actually be better than Wainwright just due to the fact it generally takes two years to fully recover from tommy john and as long as bronson starts the season healthy i think he will be fine.
I agree with this. It seems people think Wainwright will just be back to his old self from day one. He has to learn to have faith in that arm first. that may take a while. Then there is the physical side of getting the arm back to shape.

brad1176
02-08-2012, 01:55 PM
We will know very shortly what kind of year Bronson will have, if his fastball isn't back up in the 89-91 range, he will be awful again.

alett12
02-08-2012, 01:59 PM
We will know very shortly what kind of year Bronson will have, if his fastball isn't back up in the 89-91 range, he will be awful again.

that i agree with. if nothing else dusty will leave him in to eat innings

[deleted]
02-08-2012, 02:23 PM
The big difference is that these guys aren't on the same talent level to begin with. They aren't even close. A healthy Adam Wainwright is one of the best pitchers in the majors, while Bronson in his prime was never much better than decent.

Last year Arroyo was the absolute worst starting pitcher in all of baseball. Even if he bounces back some and Wainwright is slow to recover, it's hard to imagine a scenario in which Bronson outpitches him.

There is not a baseball analyst on earth who predicts a better 2012 from Arroyo than Wainwright. None. There's a reason for this. You're setting yourself up for some huge disappoinents if that's the kind of season you see us having.

Big Red Hoss
02-08-2012, 02:30 PM
;2534140']The big difference is that these guys aren't on the same talent level to begin with. They aren't even close. A healthy Adam Wainwright is one of the best pitchers in the majors, while Bronson in his prime was never much better than decent.

Last year Arroyo was the absolute worst starting pitcher in all of baseball. Even if he bounces back some and Wainwright is slow to recover, it's hard to imagine a scenario in which Bronson outpitches him.

There is not a baseball analyst on earth who predicts a better 2012 from Arroyo than Wainwright. None. There's a reason for this. You're setting yourself up for some huge disappoinents if that's the kind of season you see us having.

For for the first 4 years bronson was with the reds he was as solid as they come. Just because he wasn't flashy doesn't mean hes not a great pitcher. Bronsonwas great for the reds everyseason but one. Now everyone is agaisnt him and not willing to give himself a season to redeem himself. Is he a #1 or2? No but he is solid and could regain that form.

brad1176
02-08-2012, 02:31 PM
;2534140']The big difference is that these guys aren't on the same talent level to begin with. They aren't even close. A healthy Adam Wainwright is one of the best pitchers in the majors, while Bronson in his prime was never much better than decent.

Last year Arroyo was the absolute worst starting pitcher in all of baseball. Even if he bounces back some and Wainwright is slow to recover, it's hard to imagine a scenario in which Bronson outpitches him.

There is not a baseball analyst on earth who predicts a better 2012 from Arroyo than Wainwright. None. There's a reason for this. You're setting yourself up for some huge disappoinents if that's the kind of season you see us having.

Take a deep breath, we're just randomly talking baseball stuff until the season starts. Bronson is not better than Wainright in any stretch of the imagination. I suspect that Wainright won't do much pitching this year though, it's too soon since the surgery.

texasdave
02-08-2012, 02:34 PM
that i agree with. if nothing else dusty will leave him in to eat innings

Eat innings and lose ballgames. I fear that will be the case.

Big Red Hoss
02-08-2012, 02:35 PM
Yea we have Paul yanish to eat inngs and lose games. Don't need it from Arroyo.

texasdave
02-08-2012, 02:36 PM
We will know very shortly what kind of year Bronson will have, if his fastball isn't back up in the 89-91 range, he will be awful again.

I am pulling for him but you are correct. If he toes the rubber with a mid-80s heater it is gonna be another long season. I am cautiously optimistic because it is spring. And that's what spring is for.

zacharync
02-08-2012, 04:25 PM
I am pulling for him but you are correct. If he toes the rubber with a mid-80s heater it is gonna be another long season. I am cautiously optimistic because it is spring. And that's what spring is for.

Bronson has some things going for him in that he doesn't throw from one position. He has everything from an over the top release to a 3/4 release. He has never gotten people out based on heat. He mixes velocity quite well also.

You're right though, a max of 85-88mph fb will make for plenty of work for the defense.

[deleted]
02-08-2012, 08:00 PM
For for the first 4 years bronson was with the reds he was as solid as they come. Just because he wasn't flashy doesn't mean hes not a great pitcher. Bronsonwas great for the reds everyseason but one. Now everyone is agaisnt him and not willing to give himself a season to redeem himself. Is he a #1 or2? No but he is solid and could regain that form.

I agree to an extant: Arroyo was quite decent for us for a few years. That first year (2006?) he was especially good, but the rest he's been mediocre. Don't confuse that for me saying he was bad - he was passable as a back-end starter, no doubt. But the question isn't "what kind of career has Bronson Arroyo had," it's "will he help us going forward?" And I simply can't look past how remarkably bad he was last season. So many fans seem okay with looking past this, assuming he'll bounce back... and even if he comes back 100%, it's still not like we'd be getting an above-average pitcher. We'd be getting a 35-year-old mediocre one on the decline... if he bounces 100% back. I'm just not comfortable crossing my fingers and handing 1/5 of our games over to what has a very good chance of being a travesty again.

alett12
02-09-2012, 11:43 AM
Personally I'm optimistic Bronson will bounce back will he be as good as he was? No but he should throw around 200 innings again which is what they need it isn't like he has to start in the playoffs

brad1176
02-09-2012, 02:00 PM
I hope Bronson bounces back, but I'm not betting on it. I say he has an ERA over 5 this year.

alett12
02-09-2012, 02:05 PM
that very well could be true but he'll still lead the team in IP

[deleted]
02-09-2012, 02:56 PM
If someone throws 200 innings but is bad, that... That hurts the team more than it helps. Does that need to be said?

drowg14
02-09-2012, 03:30 PM
;2534551']If someone throws 200 innings but is bad, that... That hurts the team more than it helps. Does that need to be said?

It shouldn't need to be said, but it probably does. And Dusty is the one who needs to be told this. Even if Bronson has a +5 era (which I don't think he will) Dusty will keep throwing him out there every 5th day.

alett12
02-10-2012, 08:19 AM
Agreed it is extremely sad but it is gonna happen and I'd love to see leake Cueto or Latos lead the team but I dont know