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View Full Version : honest thoughts on what the Reds should do with Drew Stubbs



icehole3
02-13-2012, 04:19 AM
Do you like the way they've handled Drew Stubbs so far and what would you like to see done going forward? :)

My thoughts is he's similar to ED and should be put in a lineup to drive in runs not leadoff.

Ron Madden
02-13-2012, 04:40 AM
Leave him alone and bat him lower in the order. ;);)

Vottomatic
02-13-2012, 06:47 AM
As soon as Stubbs has a good streak, all the fans will be saying "I told ya so". But my gut is to trade him as soon as he shows anything because I think it will be momentary. I think he's way overrated.

But I would bat him 7th.

mth123
02-13-2012, 07:23 AM
Hit him 4th against LHP. If everyone else is healthy and no one needs a day off, sit him against RHP and use him late in the game for defense.

lollipopcurve
02-13-2012, 08:49 AM
Make him compete with Heisey and Phipps in ST. Even if the job is his to lose, make him work for it, feel some heat.

TRF
02-13-2012, 09:38 AM
Bat him 7th, give him 550 AB's and watch him slug 30 HR's and steal 50 bases.

yes, i just typed that.

Edd Roush
02-13-2012, 09:43 AM
Make him compete with Heisey and Phipps in ST. Even if the job is his to lose, make him work for it, feel some heat.

I have no real problem letting Heisey start off the year as the starter in centerfield against right handed pitching if Heisey has a super hot spring and Stubbs is starting cold, but Stubbs is quite a bit better than Phipps and a hot spring from Phipps should not let him see any PT over Stubbs.

I am still very bullish on Stubbs. I believe he will be an above average CF in 2012 and that is more based upon his defensive abilities than his offensive abilities, although he has very good raw speed and power that should allow him to become an average offensive CF as well (granted the bar is low in this respect).

lollipopcurve
02-13-2012, 09:48 AM
but Stubbs is quite a bit better than Phipps and a hot spring from Phipps should not let him see any PT over Stubbs.

I agree. However, Stubbs should be made aware of the competition that surrounds him, even if it's a step behind for now.

CySeymour
02-13-2012, 09:54 AM
Stubbs has a very high K rate. But Heisey's isn't much better.

Stubbs is a better centerfielder.

Stubbs is a better baserunner.

Stubbs gets on base at a higher rate.


So why are so many people so bullish on having Heisey start over Stubbs?

RedlegJake
02-13-2012, 09:55 AM
I'm rather a fan of Stubbs overall - I wish he had more plate discipline, of course but he is what he is and given that I only wish Dusty would use him correctly and to me that would be batting somewhere between 6th to 8th in the order. He has enough bat to make him a very dangerous bottom of the order hitter, speed to burn to benefit when singles hitting Hanigan bats behind him, and to make Dusty's love of small ball and bunting a better percentage play when pitchers are up. Put him in the 7th spot, pencil him into centerfield and forget he's there.

AmarilloRed
02-13-2012, 09:55 AM
He's scored 90 runs 2 years in a row at the top of the lineup. Keep him at leadoff or #2 as long as he continues to do that, but sit him against tough RHP.

traderumor
02-13-2012, 09:57 AM
Hit him 4th against LHP. If everyone else is healthy and no one needs a day off, sit him against RHP and use him late in the game for defense.That strategy (a fantasy/strat-o-matic strategy) gets him about 250 AB maybe, and that is the high end? If that is all you are going to do with him, trade him now because the Reds need more production than that from an OFer right now. They do not have that kind of depth. Further, from what I've seen these first two full years, he needs to sit out a deep slump, but platooning him would likely make his swing flaws only intensify. I don't think you would get equal production with fewer ABs like you would in fantasy or strat ball.

I like him getting about 500 ABs hitting 6th or 7th.

traderumor
02-13-2012, 10:01 AM
He's scored 90 runs 2 years in a row at the top of the lineup. Keep him at leadoff or #2 as long as he continues to do that, but sit him against tough RHP.I would say a good top of the order person would have scored more runs, all other things being equal. Stubbs is miscast at the top of the order, should be as infrequent as possible.

TRF
02-13-2012, 10:05 AM
I'm not sure whay anyone wants Heisey over Stubbs when it should be Heisey over Ludwick.

Blitz Dorsey
02-13-2012, 10:05 AM
I know you weren't saying he's as good or even close, but please don't even mention Stubbs in the same breath as Eric Davis. Unless the breath is "Man, I long for the days of Eric Davis because right now our starting CF is Drew Stubbs."

Personally, Stubbs has the chance to be a decent MLB player, but even that would surprise me at this point. Right now, he's a liability, especially the way Dusty uses him. If Stubbs would bat every day in the 7 or 8 hole, he could be an effective player for the Reds. Batting him high in the order is just such a bad idea on so many levels.

Stubbs is also overrated as a defensive CF -- Davis blows him away in that category too. (Although, Davis blows him away even more offensively.) Stubbs has elite speed -- might be the fastest player in MLB. But he's tentative near the wall, doesn't take good angles at times, etc.

I would love to eat crow and have Stubbs prove me wrong this year. Just don't see it though.

CySeymour
02-13-2012, 10:08 AM
Right now, he's a liability, especially the way Dusty uses him.

He was a 3 win player last year. How is that a liability?

Blitz Dorsey
02-13-2012, 10:09 AM
Do you like the way they've handled Drew Stubbs so far and what would you like to see done going forward? :)

My thoughts is he's similar to ED and should be put in a lineup to drive in runs not leadoff.

Sorry, meant to include quote in last post. Yes, Davis and Stubbs are "similar" in that they shouldn't bat leadoff. But Davis needed to move down to bat in the 3 hole. Stubbs needs to move down to bat 7th or 8th. Not all that similar.

Blitz Dorsey
02-13-2012, 10:15 AM
He was a 3 win player last year. How is that a liability?

I consider a .686 OPS to be a liability for someone who bats so high in the order and collects 600 ABs. Also, IMO, he's overrated defensively. I watch every Reds game and I trust my judgment of Stubbs' defensive ability over that of a computer. Defensive stats are very flawed IMO. That's one area where you definitely need human assistance.

Patrick Bateman
02-13-2012, 10:24 AM
I consider a .686 OPS to be a liability for someone who bats so high in the order and collects 600 ABs. Also, IMO, he's overrated defensively. I watch every Reds game and I trust my judgment of Stubbs' defensive ability over that of a computer. Defensive stats are very flawed IMO. That's one area where you definitely need human assistance.

Stubbs defensive stats suggest that he has been about an average to perhaps marginally above average fielding CF. It's actually the scouting reports where he has garnered attention as an elite CF. I think most people would agree that the stats have this one about right (he has great range east to west, but not so good north to south IMO).

Overall, compare him to most CF's, and you have about an average fielder, and about an average bat (and his 3 years splits are more like .730-.740 OPS. He's starter material, but if he struggles like last season, he's a pretty fringe starter.

Blitz Dorsey
02-13-2012, 10:25 AM
Stubbs defensive stats suggest that he has been about an average to perhaps marginally above average fielding CF. It's actually the scouting reports where he has garnered attention as an elite CF. I think most people would agree that the stats have this one about right (he has great range east to west, but not so good north to south IMO).

Overall, compare him to most CF's, and you have about an average fielder, and about an average bat (and his 3 years splits are more like .730-.740 OPS. He's starter material, but if he struggles like last season, he's a pretty fringe starter.

Yeah, I will admit I was surprised to learn he had a WAR of 3 last year. Doesn't seem to add up.

Reds/Flyers Fan
02-13-2012, 10:45 AM
Now that Volquez has thankfully been banished from Cincy, Drew Stubbs assumes the role of "most frustrating Red." I just don't see much hope for him ever being more than he is, which is a streaky player who can't consistently make contact. I'd cross my fingers for a good season from him and then look to fool another club into trading for his "potential."

lollipopcurve
02-13-2012, 10:48 AM
Stubbs defensive stats suggest that he has been about an average to perhaps marginally above average fielding CF. It's actually the scouting reports where he has garnered attention as an elite CF. I think most people would agree that the stats have this one about right (he has great range east to west, but not so good north to south IMO).

I've been saying this for a long time now. He's OK out there -- nothing "special" in any respect. He's just not aggressive enough.

traderumor
02-13-2012, 10:53 AM
I've been saying this for a long time now. He's OK out there -- nothing "special" in any respect. He's just not aggressive enough.
Our eyes were trained by the former statues we had out there for several years, still taking awhile to adjust to just a little bit of light ;)

reds1869
02-13-2012, 11:10 AM
I think Stubbs has the potential to be a very good player if used properly. Bat him 6-8 and turn him loose both on the basepaths and at the plate.

Patrick Bateman
02-13-2012, 11:11 AM
Yeah, I will admit I was surprised to learn he had a WAR of 3 last year. Doesn't seem to add up.

Based on his playing time last season, 3 WAR is not a ton... for example, given the same playing time last season, Heisey would have had a comparable amount of WAR, and I don't think anyone would confuse Heisey as looking like a complete stud out there all year, he's another player that excels in a few areas but otherwise is a flawed player.

I think it shows that sometimes our brain works in a way that the flaws stick out the most and we forget that few ideal baseball players exist. A .686 OPSing, non elite fielder doesn't seem that interesting, but when stacking up a Stubss/Heisey against the rest of the field, just about everyone has similar flaws in their game that can put them down to the same level, or in numerous cases, quite a bit worse. There just isn't a huge amount of offensive studs that can field the position.

In all, these guys are pretty average starting type of players. They aren't going to be the reason that the Reds are elite (if they happen to be), but because they aren't Corey Patterson might be enough to get them to the playoffs. The Reds need to hold onto these guys while their cheap, because the cost to acquire a real alternative while staying within budget just isn't feasible, warts or not.

RANDY IN INDY
02-13-2012, 11:30 AM
Start him down in the order and let him play.

CySeymour
02-13-2012, 11:38 AM
In all, these guys are pretty average starting type of players. They aren't going to be the reason that the Reds are elite (if they happen to be), but because they aren't Corey Patterson might be enough to get them to the playoffs. The Reds need to hold onto these guys while their cheap, because the cost to acquire a real alternative while staying within budget just isn't feasible, warts or not.

I would say this is a pretty fair assessment.

I(heart)Freel
02-13-2012, 11:47 AM
When Heisey starts in left, I think Stubbs will be correctly slotted in the back of the order.

When Ludwick starts in left, I think the appeal of Stubbs leading-off will be too much for Dusty to resist.

So can we expect any different results from last year, with Stubbs' "role" changing so often? Is it any wonder no one has figured out who he is yet, including himself?

hebroncougar
02-13-2012, 11:48 AM
I bat him 6th or 7th, and think he turns to Mike Cameron. Which is pretty ok with me.

IslandRed
02-13-2012, 11:52 AM
The main thing for Stubbs is to stop the regression. If he hits like he did in August and September, he'll be on the bench quickly.

REDREAD
02-13-2012, 11:52 AM
People are suggesting Stubbs bat 8th?

It's almost guaranteed that Stubbs is going to be better offensively than C and SS. (Mescaro might outhit him, but not likely in his first year).

Stubbs is also a pretty good bet to outproduce the LF combo of Ludwick/Heisey, or at least be close.

Stubbs has his flaws, but there was only approximately 10-12 CF in baseball that are better than him, by WAR last year. Most of the guys better than him are unavailable in trade. I just don't get the Stubbs bashing. He's not an allstar, but he's pretty good in CF and the Reds aren't likely to be able to upgrade him (Heisey is not an upgrade, and if Heisey is an upgrade, we need him in LF).

AmarilloRed
02-13-2012, 12:14 PM
I would say a good top of the order person would have scored more runs, all other things being equal. Stubbs is miscast at the top of the order, should be as infrequent as possible.

If there was someone better, he would already be at the top of the lineup. You may be right about him being miscast-I don't see a better option right now.

MikeS21
02-13-2012, 12:16 PM
As long as Stubbs bats 6th or 7th, he will do fine, if not pretty good. Move him down in the batting order and leave him alone.

I really don't think Drew Stubbs is the problem. At least with Stubbs, you know what you are getting. The bigger question is, which Jay Bruce will show up this year? He frustrates me more than Stubbs any day of the week.

icehole3
02-13-2012, 12:22 PM
Sorry, meant to include quote in last post. Yes, Davis and Stubbs are "similar" in that they shouldn't bat leadoff. But Davis needed to move down to bat in the 3 hole. Stubbs needs to move down to bat 7th or 8th. Not all that similar.

only said similar, never said theyre the same guy Blitz, cut me some slack now :)

Homer Bailey
02-13-2012, 12:42 PM
I know you weren't saying he's as good or even close, but please don't even mention Stubbs in the same breath as Eric Davis. Unless the breath is "Man, I long for the days of Eric Davis because right now our starting CF is Drew Stubbs."

Personally, Stubbs has the chance to be a decent MLB player, but even that would surprise me at this point. Right now, he's a liability, especially the way Dusty uses him. If Stubbs would bat every day in the 7 or 8 hole, he could be an effective player for the Reds. Batting him high in the order is just such a bad idea on so many levels.

Stubbs is also overrated as a defensive CF -- Davis blows him away in that category too. (Although, Davis blows him away even more offensively.) Stubbs has elite speed -- might be the fastest player in MLB. But he's tentative near the wall, doesn't take good angles at times, etc.

I would love to eat crow and have Stubbs prove me wrong this year. Just don't see it though.

Stubbs has posted a 6.6 WAR over the last two seasons. He's been an above average major league player, and that is not really even debatable at this point.

traderumor
02-13-2012, 12:46 PM
If there was someone better, he would already be at the top of the lineup. You may be right about him being miscast-I don't see a better option right now.Ryan Hanigan, for one when he plays, but Dusty will never do it. He gets on base and has average speed, so I would take the "bases clogged" over "not on base." But you are right, they still don't have a good option for leadoff, and it is a necessary evil. An innovative manager would go with a lot of Bruce and Hanigan at the top of the lineup with his current personnel. Dusty is not that, so we'll see a lot of Stubbs and Phillips at the top, probably some Cozart (which isn't horrible), but short of lineup juggling or slump busting, probably never Bruce and Hanigan. Although Brucie did hit the top of the lineup for a while in 2010, IIRC.

sonny
02-13-2012, 02:16 PM
Bat him sixth. Let him stay in CF. better to strikeout than ground into a double play.

mth123
02-13-2012, 02:52 PM
That strategy (a fantasy/strat-o-matic strategy) gets him about 250 AB maybe, and that is the high end? If that is all you are going to do with him, trade him now because the Reds need more production than that from an OFer right now. They do not have that kind of depth. Further, from what I've seen these first two full years, he needs to sit out a deep slump, but platooning him would likely make his swing flaws only intensify. I don't think you would get equal production with fewer ABs like you would in fantasy or strat ball.

I like him getting about 500 ABs hitting 6th or 7th.

I'm all for trading him. :thumbup:

mth123
02-13-2012, 03:06 PM
He was a 3 win player last year. How is that a liability?

His WAR of 2.6 is a bit of a mirage IMO. He was minus 2.4 wins batting and minus 2.3 wins fielding. He had 4.4 baserunning ( a number I doubt even more than on defense) and he had 2.3 wins for position and his overall total was just 2.6. Basically any replacement level (or tick above) player who simply plays CF each day would achieve the same result.

Personally, if the hitting and fielding are both below replacement, I don't care about the other numbers.

Stubbs is a platoon player. He doesn't know when to swing when he gets a fat one early and gets himself into bad counts over and over. RH Pitchers carve him up with breaking stuff that starts over the plate and breaks to the outside. Because he's in such a poor count all the time, he almost has to swing. He makes poor contact or misses for the K. Lefties can't do that to him because the ball breaks into his wheelhouse instead of away from him. The result is he mashes lefties in spite of himself and stinks against RHP.

He needs to learn to jump on the fat ones early in the count and stop taking just for the sake of running up the pitch count.

redsmetz
02-13-2012, 04:05 PM
His WAR of 2.6 is a bit of a mirage IMO. He was minus 2.4 wins batting and minus 2.3 wins fielding. He had 4.4 baserunning ( a number I doubt even more than on defense) and he had 2.3 wins for position and his overall total was just 2.6. Basically any replacement level (or tick above) player who simply plays CF each day would achieve the same result.

Personally, if the hitting and fielding are both below replacement, I don't care about the other numbers.

Stubbs is a platoon player. He doesn't know when to swing when he gets a fat one early and gets himself into bad counts over and over. RH Pitchers carve him up with breaking stuff that starts over the plate and breaks to the outside. Because he's in such a poor count all the time, he almost has to swing. He makes poor contact or misses for the K. Lefties can't do that to him because the ball breaks into his wheelhouse instead of away from him. The result is he mashes lefties in spite of himself and stinks against RHP.

He needs to learn to jump on the fat ones early in the count and stop taking just for the sake of running up the pitch count.

This is an honest question: do you believe he can learn this? He's had two full seasons with the Reds now, one good, the other not so much (particularly with the woeful K's for the reasons you state quite well). I'm in the camp that I think he still holds value and can learn to adjust. He showed no sign of that last season, but I suspect he's coming in to camp knowing it's put up or shut up time. I'd like to think he can learn to take a better approach and if he does, he brings a lot to the club.

RedsManRick
02-13-2012, 04:09 PM
Bat him 7th everyday, tell him not to worry about the strikeouts and let him do this thing. He'll hit .250/.330/.420 and be a 3.5 win player. That's a very nice guy to have.

Homer Bailey
02-13-2012, 04:12 PM
His WAR of 2.6 is a bit of a mirage IMO. He was minus 2.4 wins batting and minus 2.3 wins fielding. He had 4.4 baserunning ( a number I doubt even more than on defense) and he had 2.3 wins for position and his overall total was just 2.6. Basically any replacement level (or tick above) player who simply plays CF each day would achieve the same result.

Personally, if the hitting and fielding are both below replacement, I don't care about the other numbers.

Stubbs is a platoon player. He doesn't know when to swing when he gets a fat one early and gets himself into bad counts over and over. RH Pitchers carve him up with breaking stuff that starts over the plate and breaks to the outside. Because he's in such a poor count all the time, he almost has to swing. He makes poor contact or misses for the K. Lefties can't do that to him because the ball breaks into his wheelhouse instead of away from him. The result is he mashes lefties in spite of himself and stinks against RHP.

He needs to learn to jump on the fat ones early in the count and stop taking just for the sake of running up the pitch count.

I don't think you're using the FanGraphs numbers correctly. First of all, those numbers don't add up to a 2.6 WAR. Stubbs did not have a 4.4 WAR on the basepaths last year. Iím pretty sure those numbers represent the number of runs above or below average that players performance represents.

REDREAD
02-13-2012, 04:26 PM
His WAR of 2.6 is a bit of a mirage IMO. [snip] Basically any replacement level (or tick above) player who simply plays CF each day would achieve the same result.
.

According to Fangrahs..
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=cf&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2011&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0

12 CF with a WAR of 4.0 or better last year.
Then 6 more with a WAR of between 2 and 4 (Stubbs falls into place here).

Stubbs was the 17th most valuable CF according to Fangraphs WAR.

12 ML teams failed to find a player that could accumulate a greater than 2.0 WAR in CF last year, according to Fangraphs. IMO, it doesn't seem like a trivial task to do.

Vottomatic
02-13-2012, 04:26 PM
Geez. Stubbs is one of the most overrated Reds to come along in awhile. I don't know why people don't see this.

If he has a hot streak, capitolize on it and trade him.

mth123
02-13-2012, 04:36 PM
This is an honest question: do you believe he can learn this? He's had two full seasons with the Reds now, one good, the other not so much (particularly with the woeful K's for the reasons you state quite well). I'm in the camp that I think he still holds value and can learn to adjust. He showed no sign of that last season, but I suspect he's coming in to camp knowing it's put up or shut up time. I'd like to think he can learn to take a better approach and if he does, he brings a lot to the club.

No. I don't think he'll learn. 2011 was a down year compared to 2010 (but more in line with his minor league numbers), but I think his value is still as high as it will go. Next year he'll be arb eligible and be basically worthless as a trade piece. I would have dealt him this winter. I wonder if he won't be a non-tender candidate by the time his team control is up. 2nd or 3rd year arb and he will be pretty pricey for what he does.

mth123
02-13-2012, 04:48 PM
I don't think you're using the FanGraphs numbers correctly. First of all, those numbers don't add up to a 2.6 WAR. Stubbs did not have a 4.4 WAR on the basepaths last year. Iím pretty sure those numbers represent the number of runs above or below average that players performance represents.

You are correct. I still don't like that his best numbers are baserunning and position. Negative numbers on offense and fielding aren't good IMO.

Degenerate39
02-13-2012, 05:21 PM
Bat him sixth. Let him stay in CF. better to strikeout than ground into a double play.

Not if your name is Adam Dunn

Homer Bailey
02-13-2012, 05:26 PM
You are correct. I still don't like that his best numbers are baserunning and position. Negative numbers on offense and fielding aren't good IMO.

I could be wrong, but I believe the hitting numbers is in relation to the league as a whole. However, I believe he gets "bonus points" for playing a position further down on the defensive spectrum.

mth123
02-13-2012, 05:46 PM
I could be wrong, but I believe the hitting numbers is in relation to the league as a whole. However, I believe he gets "bonus points" for playing a position further down on the defensive spectrum.

I get it. Anyone else playing CF would get those same "bonus points." That basically means all he has to offer is baserunning. Wonder what Heisey would look like if you take away the penalty he gets for playing LF and give him the bonus for playing CF? Obviously the defensive runs would worsen, but I'd bet he'd gain more from the position switch. Add more PT in CF and I'd guess he'd dwarf Stubbs in this stat (which is far from perfect IMO).

TRF
02-13-2012, 05:49 PM
No one, and I mean NO ONE was more critical of Stubbs as a member of the Reds organization than me. Part of that was IMO the scouts and not just Reds scouts whiffed on Lincecum. TB and the Dodgers, no. If you get Evan Longoria or Clayton Kershaw, you did ok. Everyone else completely blew it.

But there is nothing to be done about that. It happens.

For 2 seasons in the minors, dougdirt insisted Stubbs had power, and i rebuked because he never showed it. The Reds were too infatuated with his speed and saw him as Juan Pierre, like that was a good thing. Stubbs was never developed properly, misused and miscast as a MLB player by coaches that cannot get past one of his physical tools: speed.

So, evaluate him in a vacuum. What are his tools, how do you best use them, and where, historically has he had the most success? He's always had a higher OPS batting lower in the order. He's more aggressive lower in the order, this is Stubbs the person.

Bat him where he is comfortable, let him have a green light on the basepaths and let him use the power he displayed in 2010. Do not try and make him fit into the leadoff role simply because he's fast. He just does not have that kind of game in him so long as coaches try to narrowly define the role of leadoff hitter.

Ron Madden
02-13-2012, 05:58 PM
No one, and I mean NO ONE was more critical of Stubbs as a member of the Reds organization than me. Part of that was IMO the scouts and not just Reds scouts whiffed on Lincecum. TB and the Dodgers, no. If you get Evan Longoria or Clayton Kershaw, you did ok. Everyone else completely blew it.

But there is nothing to be done about that. It happens.

For 2 seasons in the minors, dougdirt insisted Stubbs had power, and i rebuked because he never showed it. The Reds were too infatuated with his speed and saw him as Juan Pierre, like that was a good thing. Stubbs was never developed properly, misused and miscast as a MLB player by coaches that cannot get past one of his physical tools: speed.

So, evaluate him in a vacuum. What are his tools, how do you best use them, and where, historically has he had the most success? He's always had a higher OPS batting lower in the order. He's more aggressive lower in the order, this is Stubbs the person.

Bat him where he is comfortable, let him have a green light on the basepaths and let him use the power he displayed in 2010. Do not try and make him fit into the leadoff role simply because he's fast. He just does not have that kind of game in him so long as coaches try to narrowly define the role of leadoff hitter.

Well said TRF.

IslandRed
02-13-2012, 08:49 PM
What are his tools, how do you best use them, and where, historically has he had the most success? He's always had a higher OPS batting lower in the order. He's more aggressive lower in the order, this is Stubbs the person.

Bat him where he is comfortable, let him have a green light on the basepaths and let him use the power he displayed in 2010. Do not try and make him fit into the leadoff role simply because he's fast. He just does not have that kind of game in him so long as coaches try to narrowly define the role of leadoff hitter.

First off, I agree with you that he's miscast as a leadoff hitter. Fortunately, everything I've heard this winter sounds like they're cool with Phillips in that spot.

However, the "always" in "always had a higher OPS batting lower in the order" is only true if you ignore last year. His leadoff OPS was higher than his non-leadoff OPS, and being moved out of leadoff and down to the bottom part of the order roughly coincided with when his stat line started to crater. He OPSed in the .500s for both August and September, during most of which Phillips and Sappelt were leading off.

So as much as I'd like to believe that hitting seventh is a magic potion for his ills, it isn't that simple. I'm as strikeouts-are-just-another-out as the next stat guy, but there's striking out as a side effect of power and then there's striking out because you can't hit. That was Stubbs the last two months of last season: 207 PAs, two homers, 67 whiffs. The guy just seriously lost his confidence up there. There's not another player on the Reds who needs a hot start in 2012 more than him.

Blitz Dorsey
02-14-2012, 07:56 PM
His WAR of 2.6 is a bit of a mirage IMO. He was minus 2.4 wins batting and minus 2.3 wins fielding. He had 4.4 baserunning ( a number I doubt even more than on defense) and he had 2.3 wins for position and his overall total was just 2.6. Basically any replacement level (or tick above) player who simply plays CF each day would achieve the same result.

Personally, if the hitting and fielding are both below replacement, I don't care about the other numbers.

Stubbs is a platoon player. He doesn't know when to swing when he gets a fat one early and gets himself into bad counts over and over. RH Pitchers carve him up with breaking stuff that starts over the plate and breaks to the outside. Because he's in such a poor count all the time, he almost has to swing. He makes poor contact or misses for the K. Lefties can't do that to him because the ball breaks into his wheelhouse instead of away from him. The result is he mashes lefties in spite of himself and stinks against RHP.

He needs to learn to jump on the fat ones early in the count and stop taking just for the sake of running up the pitch count.

Well said. This clears up my questions about Stubbs' WAR last season. I knew it seemed too high. (Even though 2.6 isn't all that high for someone that plays every day as others have pointed out.)

Homer Bailey
02-14-2012, 07:59 PM
Well said. This clears up my questions about Stubbs' WAR last season. I knew it seemed too high. (Even though 2.6 isn't all that high for someone that plays every day as others have pointed out.)

Yet (as mth has admitted), the calculations in that post are wrong, and inaccurate. Stubbs did in fact post a 2.6 WAR last year, and it wasn't strictly because of baserunning.

RedsManRick
02-14-2012, 09:16 PM
Yet (as mth has admitted), the calculations in that post are wrong, and inaccurate. Stubbs did in fact post a 2.6 WAR last year, and it wasn't strictly because of baserunning.

One way to think of it is that guys who don't put up 2+ WAR aren't generally good enough to play everyday.

kaldaniels
02-14-2012, 09:53 PM
If he is the guy you want in CF going forward, now is the time you start thinking about buying out his arb/FA years if you want to get a bargain.

And I am one of those who think he is the Reds CF of the future. So I'd offer say 5 year/25 MM (with an option for the 6th season) and see where that leads with Stubbs' camp. He may never be a superstar but I think he contributes enough that with him in the lineup 150+ games a year we can lockdown the CF position and worry about other spots on the diamond.

And edit for full disclosure - I said the same thing last year. :D

Scrap Irony
02-14-2012, 10:09 PM
I think Heisey is at least close to Stubbs, if not as good. His power plays better in the lineup and his defensive metrics are right there with Stubbs. He doesn't grade out as well in the speed department, but that's not a great detriment, IMO.

I'd deal Stubbs tomorrow, play Ludwick in LF, and finish the OF with Frazier. If Heisey struggles, Willie Harris is a phone call away in AAA.

kaldaniels
02-14-2012, 10:13 PM
I think Heisey is at least close to Stubbs, if not as good. His power plays better in the lineup and his defensive metrics are right there with Stubbs. He doesn't grade out as well in the speed department, but that's not a great detriment, IMO.

I'd deal Stubbs tomorrow, play Ludwick in LF, and finish the OF with Frazier. If Heisey struggles, Willie Harris is a phone call away in AAA.

So when you wake up and deal him tommorrow, who are your targets to come back in return?

Scrap Irony
02-14-2012, 10:55 PM
Prospects.

Re-stock the pipeline.

Homer Bailey
02-15-2012, 12:28 AM
Prospects.

Re-stock the pipeline.

After the offseason the Reds have had, you want to trade away a CF'er that has averaged a 3.3 WAR over the last two seasons to.... re-stock the pipeline? And play Ludwick in LF every day?

reds44
02-15-2012, 12:34 AM
It is possible for the Reds to have both Stubbs and Heisey on the roster. People realize that right?

AtomicDumpling
02-15-2012, 01:14 AM
Drew Stubbs is a legitimate starting CF in the major leagues. I would start Stubbs almost every day and bat him 6th or 7th in the order. Maybe sit him when the Reds are facing an especially tough right-handed pitcher with good breaking balls. He excels versus left-handed pitching, which actually makes him a good option to fit between Bruce and Votto at clean-up so he can feast on all those LOOGYs the Reds face in the late innings.

Too many people freak out about the strikeouts and don't realize his overall production is pretty good. Stubbs is basically an average major league hitter who plays good defense at a critical position and rocks on the basepaths. He is not a star and will never be a star. You don't have to be a star to be a valuable part of a winning ballclub.

And Chris Heisey should be the near-everyday left fielder, with Ryan Ludwick being the 4th outfielder.

reds44
02-15-2012, 02:25 AM
Stubbs was not an average hitter last year.

AtomicDumpling
02-15-2012, 03:05 AM
Stubbs was not an average hitter last year.

Stubbs Career
AVG: .251
OBP: .325
SLG: .406
OPS: .731
wOBA: .329
wRC+: 101


Stubbs' 2011 season wOBA (.314) and wRC+ (94) were dead-on to the 2011 NL average wOBA (.312) and wRC+ (94).

That is as close to average as a hitter can be without actually being named Average Hitter.

mth123
02-15-2012, 03:22 AM
I think 2010 is the best we'll ever see from Drew Stubbs. Hope I'm wrong, but 2011 seems more the norm to me. Its more in line with his upper minor league numbers. Even 2011 Stubbs still has value while he's cheap, but he's arb eligible after 2012.

As for Stubbs and Heisey, I agree they can be on the same roster, but I think its a weak outfield if both of these guys are starting. I like Heisey ok in CF. In LF, I think his bat is light. As an every day player, I see Heisey as a .740 to .770 OPS guy. Fine for CF. Not enough for LF. I see Stubbs in the .650 to .680 range from here on out. He'll mash LHP and it will be enough with his speed and defense to give him a decent run in the major leagues, but I just don't see a star or even a good every day player. I think Ludwick will be the team's 3rd best offensive player in 2012. He's not a world beater, but he'll be a cut above the collection of 6, 7 and 8 hitters who aren't named Votto or Bruce.

*BaseClogger*
02-15-2012, 03:27 AM
I think 2010 is the best we'll ever see from Drew Stubbs. Hope I'm wrong, but 2011 seems more the norm to me. Its more in line with his upper minor league numbers. Even 2011 Stubbs still has value while he's cheap, but he's arb eligible after 2012.

As for Stubbs and Heisey, I agree they can be on the same roster, but I think its a weak outfield if both of these guys are starting. I like Heisey ok in CF. In LF, I think his bat is light. As an every day player, I see Heisey as a .740 to .770 OPS guy. Fine for CF. Not enough for LF. I see Stubbs in the .650 to .680 range from here on out. He'll mash LHP and it will be enough with his speed and defense to give him a decent run in the major leagues, but I just don't see a star or even a good every day player. I think Ludwick will be the team's 3rd best offensive player in 2012. He's not a world beater, but he'll be a cut above the collection of 6, 7 and 8 hitters who aren't named Votto or Bruce.

He OPS'd .686 last season. Why do you see it further decreasing?

mth123
02-15-2012, 03:41 AM
Stubbs Career
AVG: .251
OBP: .325
SLG: .406
OPS: .731
wOBA: .329
wRC+: 101


Stubbs' 2011 season wOBA (.314) and wRC+ (94) were dead-on to the 2011 NL average wOBA (.312) and wRC+ (94).

That is as close to average as a hitter can be without actually being named Average Hitter.

I hate using league average to evaluate a player. For me its just too low a bar. It includes pitchers, back-ups, utility IF, weak hitting SS and defense first Catchers driving the average down. I'd hope just about any CF who should be starting on a play-off caliber team would be well above league average.

*BaseClogger*
02-15-2012, 03:44 AM
I hate using league average to evaluate a player. For me its just too low a bar. It includes pitchers, back-ups, utility IF, weak hitting SS and defense first Catchers driving the average down. I'd hope just about any CF who should be starting on a play-off caliber team would be well above league average.

NL CFs hit .262/.333/.409 last year, so once again his career numbers are in line...

mth123
02-15-2012, 03:48 AM
He OPS'd .686 last season. Why do you see it further decreasing?

Because he hit over his head in March and April. I view that as a continuation of his 2010 and pre-turnng point. At some point, the league figured out what to do against him and he just wasn't a good offensive player. I don't see him having a month that good ever again unless its done with 80% of his PAs against LHP. Substitute a more likely .700 or so for that .777 OPS in March and April and where would he be?

mth123
02-15-2012, 03:49 AM
NL CFs hit .262/.333/.409 last year, so once again his career numbers are in line...

And his career numbers are way above what I'd expect from here on out. If we got .262/
333/.409 from Stubbs, I'd be thrilled and consider him a top 10 CF with the rest of his game thrown in. I'm expecting something more like .230/.305/.365..... he just won't swing at the 1st pitch meatball that teams are throwing him to get ahead in the count. These are all small samples, but they are consistent with what my eye is seeing. When Stubbs swung at the first pitch in 2011, his line was .481/.481/.857/1.338 with 7 of his 15 HR. When he let the pitcher get ahead of him his OPS was .406. With 2 strikes his OPS was .424.

oneupper
02-15-2012, 07:51 AM
. When Stubbs swung at the first pitch in 2011, his line was .481/.481/.857/1.338 with 7 of his 15 HR.

I'd just want to clarify for the sake of using statistics correctly. This is NOT Stubbs' line when swinging at the first pitch. This is his line when putting the first pitch INTO PLAY. There's a difference. A swing and a miss or a foul ball and he's 0-1.
After 0-1 he had a .532 OPS in 2011 (but that includes called first strikes).
So, I don't know what his stats are after swinging on the first pitch.

Players will always have good first pitch stats, looking at the result of a 0-0 count. You can't strike out on the first pitch.

TRF
02-15-2012, 09:29 AM
I think 2010 is the best we'll ever see from Drew Stubbs. Hope I'm wrong, but 2011 seems more the norm to me. Its more in line with his upper minor league numbers. Even 2011 Stubbs still has value while he's cheap, but he's arb eligible after 2012.

As for Stubbs and Heisey, I agree they can be on the same roster, but I think its a weak outfield if both of these guys are starting. I like Heisey ok in CF. In LF, I think his bat is light. As an every day player, I see Heisey as a .740 to .770 OPS guy. Fine for CF. Not enough for LF. I see Stubbs in the .650 to .680 range from here on out. He'll mash LHP and it will be enough with his speed and defense to give him a decent run in the major leagues, but I just don't see a star or even a good every day player. I think Ludwick will be the team's 3rd best offensive player in 2012. He's not a world beater, but he'll be a cut above the collection of 6, 7 and 8 hitters who aren't named Votto or Bruce.

good god I'm defending Drew Stubbs.

His upper minors numbers rest squarely on an organization that had no idea how to deploy him. He was almost exclusively hitting lead off throughout his minor league career. Every time he saw SIGNIFICANT time lower in the order he hit better. Let's face another elephant in the room, 2011 was essentially his sophomore season. It isn't all that uncommon to see a regression there.

Stubbs scored 92 runs last year, 91 the year before. If he scores 90+ runs for the next 5 years as a Red batting 6th or 7th, and with his power he's more likely to drive in 75 that 45 at that position in the lineup, then I'll take it. His speed at the 6-7 hole means pitchers will treat him like a prototypical leadoff hitter. his SB threat will force fastballs at Mesoraco (You know Cozart is batting 2nd.) 7 and 8 hitters have a chance to be very productive this year.

Blitz Dorsey
02-15-2012, 09:44 AM
Prospects.

Re-stock the pipeline.

Haha. I think you're getting your threads confused, buddy. Stubbs is not on the trading block. Pretty sure you're thinking of Bailey here. Only way Bailey gets traded is if the Reds sign Oswalt, which seems very unlikely to me.

AmarilloRed
02-15-2012, 10:22 AM
His speed at the 6-7 hole means pitchers will treat him like a prototypical leadoff hitter. his SB threat will force fastballs at Mesoraco (You know Cozart is batting 2nd.) 7 and 8 hitters have a chance to be very productive this year.

I think it's more likely Stubbs will be 2 and Cozart 6. I just don't see the Reds putting a rookie at the 2 spot.

TRF
02-15-2012, 10:31 AM
I think it's more likely Stubbs will be 2 and Cozart 6. I just don't see the Reds putting a rookie at the 2 spot.

I'll bet you a beer he puts him there. pick the place. I'm partial to Hummers (it's a bar and grill for those outside Amarillo) myself.

SirFelixCat
02-15-2012, 11:12 AM
Bat him 7th, give him 550 AB's and watch him slug 30 HR's and steal 50 bases.


Pretty much sums it up. Batting him 7th, imo, is the key.

Sea Ray
02-15-2012, 11:58 AM
Pretty much sums it up. Batting him 7th, imo, is the key.

Then who do you bat 8th?

I think one of Drew Stubbs' problems in 2011 was that he was played too much. I think he really got worn down both mentally and physically. He's not a big guy but he ended up playing in all but 5 games, starting 145 of them. I don't think he was ready for that.

I think Dusty needs to open up the competition for the CF and LF jobs in Spring Training and let these guys compete. And if Stubbs plays well early like he did last year, let him have the starting gig but give Heisey a few more starts there especially late in the year if it looks like Stubbs' bat is dragging like it did in 2011.

I think if he's played a little less frequently we'll see a nice turnaround for him in 2012.

TRF
02-15-2012, 12:05 PM
I bat Cozart 8th. I bet Dusty bats him second and Hanigan/Mez 8th.

Not a big guy? Since when is 6'4'' not a big guy?

CesarGeronimo
02-15-2012, 12:25 PM
I bat Cozart 8th. I bet Dusty bats him second and Hanigan/Mez 8th.

Not a big guy? Since when is 6'4'' not a big guy?

I bet that you are correct. I also bet that he bats Rolen fourth. Where would you bat Rolen? I'm saying second:

1. Phillips, 2. Rolen (.366 career OBP, .358 in 2010/.368 in 2009), 3. Votto, 4. Bruce, 5. Heisey/Ludwick, 6. Hanigan/Mes, 7. Stubbs, 8. Cozart.

Benihana
02-15-2012, 12:31 PM
Personally, I would start with Mez/Hanigan 8th. If Mez starts to hit like he did in the minors, and/or Rolen continues in 2011 form, I'd move Mez to 5th or 6th and Rolen to 8th.

Cozart will likely be hitting 2nd either way. Heisey/Ludwick should be in the 5 or 6 hole.

In other words, before Mez starts to prove himself at the plate:

Phillips 2B
Cozart SS
Votto 1B
Bruce RF
Heisey/Ludwick LF
Rolen 3B
Stubbs CF
Mez/Hanigan C

Once Mez has proven himself, I'd swap him and Rolen in the order.

Kc61
02-15-2012, 01:36 PM
The problem with Stubbs is obvious from the numbers. Like some other young right handed hitters, he feasts on lefties but has a lot of trouble with righties.

In 2011 his OPS against lefties was .896.
In 2011 his OPS against righties was .636.

Lifetime his OPS against lefties is .834
Lifetime his OPS against righties is .697.

I agree with the poster who said that Stubbs played too much last year. At some point he was pressing very badly, he should have sat more.

So the answer to me is clear. Play Stubbs against all LHP. He is comfortable hitting lefties.

Play him less than full time against RHP. Let him sit for 30 games against tough RH pitchers in favor of Heisey in CF.

Stubbs will wind up playing 125-130 games, he will avoid tough righties, he will hopefully avoid prolonged slumps this way.

Bat him seventh in the lineup againt righties. Maybe higher against lefties.

Benihana
02-15-2012, 02:24 PM
The problem with Stubbs is obvious from the numbers. Like some other young right handed hitters, he feasts on lefties but has a lot of trouble with righties.

In 2011 his OPS against lefties was .896.
In 2011 his OPS against righties was .636.

Lifetime his OPS against lefties is .834
Lifetime his OPS against righties is .697.

I agree with the poster who said that Stubbs played too much last year. At some point he was pressing very badly, he should have sat more.

So the answer to me is clear. Play Stubbs against all LHP. He is comfortable hitting lefties.

Play him less than full time against RHP. Let him sit for 30 games against tough RH pitchers in favor of Heisey in CF.

Stubbs will wind up playing 125-130 games, he will avoid tough righties, he will hopefully avoid prolonged slumps this way.

Bat him seventh in the lineup againt righties. Maybe higher against lefties.

Agree with this. Play Stubbs in CF and Heisey in LF against lefties. Heisey in CF and Ludwick in LF against righties. If Ludwick struggles against righties, trade for Seth Smith. Problem solved.

Sea Ray
02-15-2012, 03:10 PM
I bat Cozart 8th. I bet Dusty bats him second and Hanigan/Mez 8th.

Not a big guy? Since when is 6'4'' not a big guy?

I judge more than height. Height doesn't get you through a grueling 162 game season. He's a thin build and hadn't gone through the rigors of a 162 game major league season. CF is a tough position for anyone to play 157 games.

_Sir_Charles_
02-15-2012, 03:13 PM
I don't know if anybody saw it or not, but an interesting take on Stubbs & bunting on Fay's blog. I KNOW! (Fay didn't write it, but still...just seeing something like this on his blog just blows me away) :O)

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2012/02/15/would-bunting-more-really-help-drew-stubbs/


For many fans, strikeouts are a disaster, a waste of an at bat. And when that player has the speed of a gazelle, failing to put the ball in play is an even bigger problem.

But what would it really mean if Drew Stubbs bunted more? Would it improve his stat line, like many fans believe, or would the more sabermetrically inclined be right in suggesting that more bunting would result in Stubbs trading home runs for singles and hurt his overall value?

Kc61
02-15-2012, 03:42 PM
I don't know if anybody saw it or not, but an interesting take on Stubbs & bunting on Fay's blog. I KNOW! (Fay didn't write it, but still...just seeing something like this on his blog just blows me away) :O)

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2012/02/15/would-bunting-more-really-help-drew-stubbs/

Stubbs should probably bunt a bit more, but ultimately a guy with his power shouldn't be a bunter.

Every time Stubbs comes up it's a potential extra base hit. He's not Wily Taveras. So having him bunt once a game is way too much. Once in a while, for surprise, ok.

The key is simply to monitor his pitching matchups and recognize that, at this stage, Stubbs is not a day-in, day-out player. He should play a majority of games, but primarily against lefties and weaker RHP.

While I'm very high on the Reds this year, they still are short on lefty-hitting guys who feast on RHP. The team doesn't have a particularly good offense against RHP. Keeping Stubbs away from tough righties is one way to improve that area.

Heisey (so far) hits righties well. Over his career, Ludwick hits righties fairly well. That duo, rather than Stubbs, should play against some righties to reduce the load on Drew.

Caveat Emperor
02-15-2012, 04:09 PM
After the offseason the Reds have had, you want to trade away a CF'er that has averaged a 3.3 WAR over the last two seasons to.... re-stock the pipeline? And play Ludwick in LF every day?

It's tough to launch Stubbs now, when the market is dry for potential replacements, but I generally agree with the idea of mining value out of Drew Stubbs and moving on sometime soon.

He's a good player, but he isn't exactly a star.

mth123
02-15-2012, 08:21 PM
good god I'm defending Drew Stubbs.

His upper minors numbers rest squarely on an organization that had no idea how to deploy him. He was almost exclusively hitting lead off throughout his minor league career. Every time he saw SIGNIFICANT time lower in the order he hit better. Let's face another elephant in the room, 2011 was essentially his sophomore season. It isn't all that uncommon to see a regression there.

Stubbs scored 92 runs last year, 91 the year before. If he scores 90+ runs for the next 5 years as a Red batting 6th or 7th, and with his power he's more likely to drive in 75 that 45 at that position in the lineup, then I'll take it. His speed at the 6-7 hole means pitchers will treat him like a prototypical leadoff hitter. his SB threat will force fastballs at Mesoraco (You know Cozart is batting 2nd.) 7 and 8 hitters have a chance to be very productive this year.

The only 2 spots in the order where Stubbs had more than a handful of PAs were lead-off and 6th. Leading off Stubbs .250/.329/.373/.701 (better than his overall line). Hitting 6th .220/.291/.323/.614. Its not about where he hits in the order. Its about how he hits and IMO that's taking until he can't take anymore and then swinging at anything close. He's got this whole plate discipline thing turned upside down. Its not about taking. Its about murdering the good pitches to hit and he lets them go by most of the time.

Homer Bailey
02-15-2012, 08:32 PM
It's tough to launch Stubbs now, when the market is dry for potential replacements, but I generally agree with the idea of mining value out of Drew Stubbs and moving on sometime soon.

He's a good player, but he isn't exactly a star.

While I agree, I don't think anyone's arguing he should be untouchable. I certainly wouldn't trade him if it means making the 2012 team worse.

TRF
02-16-2012, 09:16 AM
The only 2 spots in the order where Stubbs had more than a handful of PAs were lead-off and 6th. Leading off Stubbs .250/.329/.373/.701 (better than his overall line). Hitting 6th .220/.291/.323/.614. Its not about where he hits in the order. Its about how he hits and IMO that's taking until he can't take anymore and then swinging at anything close. He's got this whole plate discipline thing turned upside down. Its not about taking. Its about murdering the good pitches to hit and he lets them go by most of the time.

2010 299 AB's in the 7 hole: .268 .332 .452 .784 12 HR 9 SB 2 CS.

That is more than a handful.

My thinking is last year was a bad year. They happen to young players.

RedsManRick
02-16-2012, 10:59 AM
I agree that Stubbs should be moved in the lineup based on platoon. Against lefties, I'd bat him 2nd or 6th. Against righties, he should probably bat 8th and perhaps even cede some playing time to Heisey/Ludwick.

Regarding the bad year argument, he did put up a career best .343 BABIP, so it's not like he got unlucky. With his speed and all or nothing swing, a BABIP like that is actually somewhat sustainable, but unless he cuts down on the strikeouts, he's not going to clear a .250 batting average.

Personally, I think the same thing happened to him as happened to Dunn when people started obsessing over his strikeouts -- he focused on cutting them down, resulting in less power, but no fewer strikeouts. He became tentative and ended up working himself in to a hole all too often. It's counter-intuitive, but I think the best way to get him to cut his strikeouts is for people to just stop worrying about them and letting him go hit. Let him show that power, put a little fear in to pitchers, and grow more comfortable about what he can handle and what he can't.

IslandRed
02-16-2012, 11:41 AM
Personally, I think the same thing happened to him as happened to Dunn when people started obsessing over his strikeouts -- he focused on cutting them down, resulting in less power, but no fewer strikeouts. He became tentative and ended up working himself in to a hole all too often. It's counter-intuitive, but I think the best way to get him to cut his strikeouts is for people to just stop worrying about them and letting him go hit. Let him show that power, put a little fear in to pitchers, and grow more comfortable about what he can handle and what he can't.

Confidence may well be part of it, but I still think he's a pure guess hitter who can't pull the trigger when he doesn't get what he's looking for (as evidenced by taking the backwards K 65 times last season), and is increasingly being out-guessed by pitchers as they get more of a book on him. I don't know how to fix that except by doing some self-scouting and trying to change his tendencies. At his age, I'm thinking his morphing into a "see the ball, hit the ball" guy is not going to happen.

RedsManRick
02-16-2012, 01:07 PM
Confidence may well be part of it, but I still think he's a pure guess hitter who can't pull the trigger when he doesn't get what he's looking for (as evidenced by taking the backwards K 65 times last season), and is increasingly being out-guessed by pitchers as they get more of a book on him. I don't know how to fix that except by doing some self-scouting and trying to change his tendencies. At his age, I'm thinking his morphing into a "see the ball, hit the ball" guy is not going to happen.

I agree. I think his plate approach is actually similar to Phillips' a few years back (but with worse contact skills). But I think that guessing tendency was ramped up because of the "strikes out too much" bug in his ear got him tied up in knots. Will he turn in to Vlad Guerrero? Of course not. But I think he can get the Ks back down to the 25% range and the average back up to .260.

IslandRed
02-16-2012, 03:57 PM
But I think he can get the Ks back down to the 25% range and the average back up to .260.

For the good of the Reds, I certainly hope you're right!

CesarGeronimo
02-17-2012, 11:47 PM
Personally, I would start with Mez/Hanigan 8th. If Mez starts to hit like he did in the minors, and/or Rolen continues in 2011 form, I'd move Mez to 5th or 6th and Rolen to 8th.

Cozart will likely be hitting 2nd either way. Heisey/Ludwick should be in the 5 or 6 hole.

In other words, before Mez starts to prove himself at the plate:

Phillips 2B
Cozart SS
Votto 1B
Bruce RF
Heisey/Ludwick LF
Rolen 3B
Stubbs CF
Mez/Hanigan C

Once Mez has proven himself, I'd swap him and Rolen in the order.

But why will Cozart likely bat 2nd either way, as you say? He hasn't proven himself ready for that at the major league level, either. Sure, everybody liked how he hit the ball hard when he came up last year, but that was only 37 at bats before he got hurt. I'd rather see him lower in the order with less pressure until he establishes himself.

RedlegJake
02-17-2012, 11:51 PM
Hitting 2nd would probably be the best possible place for Cozart as far as getting good pitches and having the best chance to hit - and I disagree it would be any more pressure on him than hitting lower in the order. I think if the kids gonna hit that will be the place situation for him to prove it - or to prove he can't...

I(heart)Freel
02-17-2012, 11:56 PM
I haven't found a link yet, but MLB network's Clubhouse Confidential broke down the perfect lead off hitter tonight.

Though they never mention him by name, i couldn't not think of Drew and this thread. It makes all the arguments for batting him 6-8 and letting him be who he is.

If/when I find the clip I'll update this post. Super cool show, by the way. Godsend during these cold winter months.

CesarGeronimo
02-18-2012, 12:27 AM
Hitting 2nd would probably be the best possible place for Cozart as far as getting good pitches and having the best chance to hit - and I disagree it would be any more pressure on him than hitting lower in the order. I think if the kids gonna hit that will be the place situation for him to prove it - or to prove he can't...

Hitting in front of Votto obviously will be an advantage, but there is still the question of whether Cozart will hit like a guy who is almost at the top of the lineup or one who should be lower in the lineup. I say there is more pressure at the top of the order because a performance that may be pretty decent for a #7 or #8 hiitter doesn't look as good at #2 to me. Cozart had a .327 OBP in 960 ABs in AAA. If he slips much from that as major league pitchers get a scouting report on him, he will be less than what many would want from the guy who gets the second most at bats on the team.

IslandRed
02-18-2012, 05:57 PM
Truth is, nobody on this team profiles as an ideal #2 hitter and we have a glut of 6-7 types. Whoever ends up hitting second is going to be miscast to a certain extent.

traderumor
02-18-2012, 06:04 PM
Truth is, nobody on this team profiles as an ideal #2 hitter and we have a glut of 6-7 types. Whoever ends up hitting second is going to be miscast to a certain extent.
Yet they've somehow managed to be a top of the league offense two years running. How do they do that with "a glut of 6-7 type hitters?"

IslandRed
02-18-2012, 08:35 PM
Yet they've somehow managed to be a top of the league offense two years running. How do they do that with "a glut of 6-7 type hitters?"

I was responding to the comments about Cozart being ill-suited for the second hole. Which is probably true, but I was making the point that everyone on the Reds is ill-suited to the second hole to some degree. Although we don't have an ideal #2 hitter, we do have several guys whose OBP is "meh" but they slug pretty well. Those guys tend to fit well in the 6 or 7 holes, thus that comment. But in GABP, a slugging-heavy lineup plays pretty well.

traderumor
02-18-2012, 09:53 PM
I was responding to the comments about Cozart being ill-suited for the second hole. Which is probably true, but I was making the point that everyone on the Reds is ill-suited to the second hole to some degree. Although we don't have an ideal #2 hitter, we do have several guys whose OBP is "meh" but they slug pretty well. Those guys tend to fit well in the 6 or 7 holes, thus that comment. But in GABP, a slugging-heavy lineup plays pretty well.My point is that "a glut of 6 or 7 hole hitters" are not going to be at the top of the league in offense, they are going to be the Pirates or Giants offensively.

Maybe the issue is the folly of trying to identify a "#2 hitter" if you don't have the prototype, which even that begs the question. The name of the game is scoring runs, not having prototypes in batting orders. Perhaps the real problem is the presumption that any of that is really important in the grand scheme of things.

membengal
02-19-2012, 08:40 AM
Sacrifice to jobu that he learns to make more consistent contact.

_Sir_Charles_
02-19-2012, 11:47 AM
Couldn't we just teach him to crowd the plate and lean into one for the team? :O)

IslandRed
02-19-2012, 01:07 PM
My point is that "a glut of 6 or 7 hole hitters" are not going to be at the top of the league in offense, they are going to be the Pirates or Giants offensively.

Third base (Rolen)
Center field (Stubbs)
Left field (Ludwick, Heisey)
Catcher (at least the Mesoraco half for now)

If you asked me where the ideal lineup spot for those four players are, I'd say 6 or 7 for all of them. That's what I mean by a glut, and it just means they're a little OBP-light to profile well as a 1/2 hitter and don't mash quite enough to be ideal at 3/4/5. That doesn't make them bad hitters. Certainly, when combined with Votto, Phillips, Bruce and a (fingers crossed) not-black-hole at shortstop, it'll be a productive offense.


Maybe the issue is the folly of trying to identify a "#2 hitter" if you don't have the prototype, which even that begs the question. The name of the game is scoring runs, not having prototypes in batting orders. Perhaps the real problem is the presumption that any of that is really important in the grand scheme of things.

That's true enough. I don't put a lot of stock in the old-school definition of #2 -- the bat-handling guy who can hit-and-run, that sort of thing -- but I do like a guy who's not an out machine or a double-play machine!

WebScorpion
02-21-2012, 10:49 AM
I don't think the batting order is all that significant for starters, but why not put Stubbs in the #4 hole? I think he has more power than Rolen at this point and if you want to break up the lefties he's certainly batting from the correct side... Just a thought. :D

TRF
02-21-2012, 12:26 PM
I don't think the batting order is all that significant for starters, but why not put Stubbs in the #4 hole? I think he has more power than Rolen at this point and if you want to break up the lefties he's certainly batting from the correct side... Just a thought. :D

Votto's OBP would be like .700

I'm only half kidding.

Edd Roush
02-21-2012, 03:15 PM
Third base (Rolen)
Center field (Stubbs)
Left field (Ludwick, Heisey)
Catcher (at least the Mesoraco half for now)

If you asked me where the ideal lineup spot for those four players are, I'd say 6 or 7 for all of them. That's what I mean by a glut, and it just means they're a little OBP-light to profile well as a 1/2 hitter and don't mash quite enough to be ideal at 3/4/5. That doesn't make them bad hitters. Certainly, when combined with Votto, Phillips, Bruce and a (fingers crossed) not-black-hole at shortstop, it'll be a productive offense.



That's true enough. I don't put a lot of stock in the old-school definition of #2 -- the bat-handling guy who can hit-and-run, that sort of thing -- but I do like a guy who's not an out machine or a double-play machine!

Why don't you see Rolen as a #2 hitter? Are you concerned about his shoulder and his paltry .279 OBP last year? While 2011 was certainly a horrible year for Rolen, I would have him penciled in as my #2 hitter if I were Dusty. He has great pitch recognition skills and if he is healthy, he is still a good hitter.

This is how I see the lineup in 2012

Phillips
Rolen
Votto
Ludwick
Bruce
Mesoraco
Stubbs
Cozart

I really think Ludwick is in for a big year in 2012. He will really benefit from being between Votto and Bruce and GABP's short left-field porch. I don't expect a return to his 2008 form, but I see a .265/.335/.465 line from him playing half of his games in GABP.

I guess I have Mes higher than other people would have him, but I am bullish on his rookie campaign and I see Stubbs' stolen bases having the most value in front of our small-ball hitting SS and maybe being able to steal second and bunted over to third by the pitcher and then Phillips can sac fly (or ground ball to the right side) him in for an easy run.

Sea Ray
02-21-2012, 03:33 PM
I see Stubbs' stolen bases having the most value in front of our small-ball hitting SS and maybe being able to steal second and bunted over to third by the pitcher and then Phillips can sac fly (or ground ball to the right side) him in for an easy run.

How do you figure hitting 7th is a good place for Stubbs SBs? If he's successful that opens up a base for the 8th hitter to be walked to bring up the pitcher. Also a 7th hitter likely will have to deal with guys like Mes clogging up the basepaths in front of him also a detriment to his SBs.

I think 7th is about the worst possible spot for a base stealer

Scrap Irony
02-21-2012, 03:58 PM
I really think Ludwick is in for a big year in 2012. He will really benefit from being between Votto and Bruce and GABP's short left-field porch. I don't expect a return to his 2008 form, but I see a .265/.335/.465 line from him playing half of his games in GABP.

I agree that the platoon of Ludwick and Heisey will hit cleanup for this team. I also believe they will hit well, with an 825-ish OPS possible between them.

I also figure Stubbs will either end up seventh or second, depending on Cozart. Neither has the obp for the two spot, but one will hit there.

(Not that batting order means jack squat. We're talking 5-10 runs per year at most.)

Sea Ray
02-21-2012, 04:01 PM
I agree that the platoon of Ludwick and Heisey will hit cleanup for this team. I also believe they will hit well, with an 825-ish OPS possible between them.

I also figure Stubbs will either end up seventh or second, depending on Cozart. Neither has the obp for the two spot, but one will hit there.

(Not that batting order means jack squat. We're talking 5-10 runs per year at most.)

My guess is Rolen will be the cleanup hitter

Edd Roush
02-21-2012, 04:39 PM
How do you figure hitting 7th is a good place for Stubbs SBs? If he's successful that opens up a base for the 8th hitter to be walked to bring up the pitcher. Also a 7th hitter likely will have to deal with guys like Mes clogging up the basepaths in front of him also a detriment to his SBs.

I think 7th is about the worst possible spot for a base stealer

I figure 7th a good place for a base stealer because you are stealing in front of the worst hitters on the team. Nothing makes me madder than a CS in with one of your best hitters at the plate. The 8 hitter and 9 hitter aren't likely to hit bombs (or any kind of extra base hits for that matter) and therefore, getting into scoring position is more valuable.

If Stubbs steals in front of Cozart and they walk Cozart, then you bunt with your pitcher (with no or one out) and have to guys in scoring position for Phillips.

AmarilloRed
02-21-2012, 05:18 PM
I'll bet you a beer he puts him there. pick the place. I'm partial to Hummers (it's a bar and grill for those outside Amarillo) myself.

TRF-I don't drink beer. I wouldn't mind if the loser bought lunch however. Money's a bit tight for me right now- I will admit. I may need to make it an IOU if I lose, but I will pay up this year if needed.Send me a PM if still interested.

Stubbs-I think you want players who have shown the ability to score runs at the top of the lineup. OBP is useful for giving you the opportunity to score runs-runs scored is the goal however. 3 players have scored 90+ runs the last 2 years-Votto, Phillips, Stubbs. For reference- Bruce has scored 80+. Mesoraco and Cozart may have the ability to do that in the future-they haven't done it yet.

IslandRed
02-21-2012, 05:24 PM
Why don't you see Rolen as a #2 hitter? Are you concerned about his shoulder and his paltry .279 OBP last year? While 2011 was certainly a horrible year for Rolen, I would have him penciled in as my #2 hitter if I were Dusty. He has great pitch recognition skills and if he is healthy, he is still a good hitter.

I think he'll have a bounceback, but I'm not that bullish. I figure his OBP will be right around the other guys I named. I'd love to be wrong. Not that it really matters all that much, so long as we don't have a black hole getting all those at-bats.

RedsManRick
02-21-2012, 07:06 PM
How do you figure hitting 7th is a good place for Stubbs SBs? If he's successful that opens up a base for the 8th hitter to be walked to bring up the pitcher. Also a 7th hitter likely will have to deal with guys like Mes clogging up the basepaths in front of him also a detriment to his SBs.

I think 7th is about the worst possible spot for a base stealer

Getting the other team to walk your players is not a bad thing. If nothing else, it buys an extra at bat for one of your other hitters at the end of the game.

Rojo
02-21-2012, 07:32 PM
OBP is useful for giving you the opportunity to score runs-runs scored is the goal however. 3 players have scored 90+ runs the last 2 years-Votto, Phillips, Stubbs. For reference- Bruce has scored 80+. Mesoraco and Cozart may have the ability to do that in the future-they haven't done it yet.

I think this is a fair point. I started a thread about Stubbs being the anti-Hannigan and vice-versa. One player conserves outs without scoring a lot of runs, the other scores but uses a ton of outs to do it. Ideally you find both in the same player, of course. But it's not horrible to have either quality in a glovey up-the-middle player.

TRF
02-22-2012, 09:23 AM
TRF-I don't drink beer. I wouldn't mind if the loser bought lunch however. Money's a bit tight for me right now- I will admit. I may need to make it an IOU if I lose, but I will pay up this year if needed.Send me a PM if still interested.

Stubbs-I think you want players who have shown the ability to score runs at the top of the lineup. OBP is useful for giving you the opportunity to score runs-runs scored is the goal however. 3 players have scored 90+ runs the last 2 years-Votto, Phillips, Stubbs. For reference- Bruce has scored 80+. Mesoraco and Cozart may have the ability to do that in the future-they haven't done it yet.

I don't really drink beer either, but Hummers makes great fries and burgers. And as for money being tight... yeah, me too. but we have a few months to save. :)

I don't think Rolen is a fit for the #2 spot as I see a ton of GIDP's in his future if that were to happen. Cozart isn't Stubbs fast or anything, but he's got some speed. If it were me making out the lineup, I'd do one of the two following:

Phillips
Cozart
Votto
Bruce
Rolen
Heisey
Stubbs
Mesoraco/Hanigan

or

Phillips
Bruce
Votto
Heisey
Rolen
Stubbs
Cozart
Mes/Hanigan

The second lineup is a bit more unconventional, but has a chance to put Bruce in a position of getting a few 2 run HR's to start a game or inning. Votto doesn't really have L/R splits, so you aren't neutralizing the two LH hitters in the batting order by bringing a LH reliever in.

REDREAD
02-22-2012, 09:31 AM
But why will Cozart likely bat 2nd either way, as you say? He hasn't proven himself ready for that at the major league level, either. Sure, everybody liked how he hit the ball hard when he came up last year, but that was only 37 at bats before he got hurt. I'd rather see him lower in the order with less pressure until he establishes himself.

Yes, I agree with this.
All things being equal, Stubbs is probably a more productive offensive player than Cozart. Of course, both are flawed. I'd rather have Stubbs at the top of the order than Cozart
I know part of this discussion is speculating what the Reds will do.

I am actually pretty confident at the start of the season, the catcher will bat 7 and Cozart will bat 8. At least that's what I hope will happen. If Cozart hits well in the 8 slot, then you think about moving him to #2. If Mez hits well, you consider moving him up as well.

Hopefully Rolen comes back fully healthy/rested and can hold the #4 or #5 slot in the batting order for at least the first 8 weeks. By then, we will see what we have in Ludwick and how Mez is starting..

RedlegJake
02-22-2012, 09:53 AM
I'd rather have Cozart at the top of the order IF he can prove he can handle it in ST at least well enough to try it going forward - I remain convinced Stubbs belongs in the 7th spot in the order. Cozart has some pop, seems capable of hitting in the .270 range and patient enough to OBP in the .330/.340 range - not perfect but I'll take it if he can do that. I think Stubbs has a better chance of a bounceback if he bats loer and can work on a new style of hitting (if he is really committed to doing that) without added pressure of hitting 2nd.

What I really want is someone to explode with a .380 OBP and magically become the ideal 2nd hitter. But then he'd become the ieal leadoff man and we'd still be looking for an ideal #2.

Sea Ray
02-22-2012, 09:55 AM
Getting the other team to walk your players is not a bad thing. If nothing else, it buys an extra at bat for one of your other hitters at the end of the game.

I understand but if the end result is walking the 8th man to bring the pitcher up, does that justify the risk in trying to swipe 2nd?

RedsManRick
02-22-2012, 11:24 AM
I understand but if the end result is walking the 8th man to bring the pitcher up, does that justify the risk in trying to swipe 2nd?

If you're asking me whether I'd prefer to have 1st & 2nd with the pitcher up or just 1st with the 8 hole hitter up, I'd take the former.

Reds pitchers hit .166/.184/.224 while their 8-hole hitters hit .256 /.323/.355. As has been pointed out, walks from an 8-hole hitter are often the result of being pitched around -- a guy being pitched to will likely walk less often than. That 8-hole line also included a .349/.417 /.605 over 96 PA from Ramon Henandez.

So we're talking about, at most, a 10% greater chance of getting a hit and a 15% chance of getting on base. I'd love to see a Monte Carlo simulation run (set up the scenario with various odds of stuff happening and run the situation a ton of times to see what shakes out), but my hypothesis is that you score more runs for the remainder of the game with runners on 1st & 2nd and the pitcher up than with a runner on 1st and a guy at the plate who isn't likely to get an extra base hit.

Here's the data from the run expectency table



Avg. 0 Outs 1 Outs 2 Outs
1B 0.94 0.56 0.25
1B/2B 1.56 0.96 0.47
Diff 0.62 0.40 0.23


Any 0 Outs 1 Outs 2 Outs
1B 44% 28% 14%
1B/2B 64% 43% 24%
Diff 20% 15% 10%

So, if we new for certain that the runner would be safe and the 8 hole hitter walked, the avg RE gain is between .2 and .6 runs in that inning and the likelihood of scoring any runs increases by between 10 and 20%.

So the question is, does the risk of getting caught stealing and the hit you take by downgrading from an 8-hole hitter to a pitcher offset those average gains? (For the first, you'd compare the above RE numbers with the bases empty state +1 out, weighted by likelihood of success)

I would not be at all surprised to see that the answer is "steal with 0 outs and a good chance of making it, stay put otherwise". I'd be very curious to see somebody actually do the math.

All that said, I think I like the idea of him batting 8th both because he'll probably see more fastballs and because his speed makes walking him a real problem.

IslandRed
02-22-2012, 11:47 AM
I would not be at all surprised to see that the answer is "steal with 0 outs and a good chance of making it, stay put otherwise". I'd be very curious to see somebody actually do the math.

You bring up a great point. It's always bothered me that, for all the research the saber community has done with respect to run expectancy tables and the like, anyone who's spent a minute following the National League knows the proximity of the pitcher's spot in the batting order has a big influence on things. I have to believe that about the time the #7 hitter comes to the plate, the real-life NL run expectancy table (and everything derived therefrom, like, is stealing right now a good idea?) starts to vary sharply from the base tables that always presume the guy standing at the plate is a league-average hitter. Has anyone ever tried to do the math for these scenarios? If they have, I've missed it.

bucksfan2
02-22-2012, 12:22 PM
If you're asking me whether I'd prefer to have 1st & 2nd with the pitcher up or just 1st with the 8 hole hitter up, I'd take the former.

Reds pitchers hit .166/.184/.224 while their 8-hole hitters hit .256 /.323/.355. As has been pointed out, walks from an 8-hole hitter are often the result of being pitched around -- a guy being pitched to will likely walk less often than. That 8-hole line also included a .349/.417 /.605 over 96 PA from Ramon Henandez.

So we're talking about, at most, a 10% greater chance of getting a hit and a 15% chance of getting on base. I'd love to see a Monte Carlo simulation run (set up the scenario with various odds of stuff happening and run the situation a ton of times to see what shakes out), but my hypothesis is that you score more runs for the remainder of the game with runners on 1st & 2nd and the pitcher up than with a runner on 1st and a guy at the plate who isn't likely to get an extra base hit.

Here's the data from the run expectency table



Avg. 0 Outs 1 Outs 2 Outs
1B 0.94 0.56 0.25
1B/2B 1.56 0.96 0.47
Diff 0.62 0.40 0.23


Any 0 Outs 1 Outs 2 Outs
1B 44% 28% 14%
1B/2B 64% 43% 24%
Diff 20% 15% 10%

So, if we new for certain that the runner would be safe and the 8 hole hitter walked, the avg RE gain is between .2 and .6 runs in that inning and the likelihood of scoring any runs increases by between 10 and 20%.

So the question is, does the risk of getting caught stealing and the hit you take by downgrading from an 8-hole hitter to a pitcher offset those average gains? (For the first, you'd compare the above RE numbers with the bases empty state +1 out, weighted by likelihood of success)

I would not be at all surprised to see that the answer is "steal with 0 outs and a good chance of making it, stay put otherwise". I'd be very curious to see somebody actually do the math.

All that said, I think I like the idea of him batting 8th both because he'll probably see more fastballs and because his speed makes walking him a real problem.

Do you think the pitchers slash line changes with people on base as opposed to no one on? I would imagine that with runners on base the opposing pitcher is going to buckle down more when facing his opposite number. I would think a pitcher hitting 9th would see better pitches to hit when there is no one on becasue the threat of imediate danger isn't at hand. Also while the pitcher getting on base isn't idea, them running the bases aren't such a bad thing.

I don't really mind walks to the 8 hole hitter in order to face the pitcher. Its almost a game within the game. Walking the 8 hole hitter filps the order over and gets your better hitters closer to another at bat as the game goes along. I also do wonder if Stubbs walking in the 8 hole would negate his speed. The last think you want is to make an out steeling with the pitcher at the plate. You never want to start an inning with the pitcher hitting 1st, but making the 3rd out with the pitcher at the plate isn't a smart play.

Sea Ray
02-22-2012, 12:49 PM
If you're asking me whether I'd prefer to have 1st & 2nd with the pitcher up or just 1st with the 8 hole hitter up, I'd take the former.

Reds pitchers hit .166/.184/.224 while their 8-hole hitters hit .256 /.323/.355. As has been pointed out, walks from an 8-hole hitter are often the result of being pitched around -- a guy being pitched to will likely walk less often than. That 8-hole line also included a .349/.417 /.605 over 96 PA from Ramon Henandez.

So we're talking about, at most, a 10% greater chance of getting a hit and a 15% chance of getting on base. I'd love to see a Monte Carlo simulation run (set up the scenario with various odds of stuff happening and run the situation a ton of times to see what shakes out), but my hypothesis is that you score more runs for the remainder of the game with runners on 1st & 2nd and the pitcher up than with a runner on 1st and a guy at the plate who isn't likely to get an extra base hit.

Here's the data from the run expectency table



Avg. 0 Outs 1 Outs 2 Outs
1B 0.94 0.56 0.25
1B/2B 1.56 0.96 0.47
Diff 0.62 0.40 0.23


Any 0 Outs 1 Outs 2 Outs
1B 44% 28% 14%
1B/2B 64% 43% 24%
Diff 20% 15% 10%

So, if we new for certain that the runner would be safe and the 8 hole hitter walked, the avg RE gain is between .2 and .6 runs in that inning and the likelihood of scoring any runs increases by between 10 and 20%.

So the question is, does the risk of getting caught stealing and the hit you take by downgrading from an 8-hole hitter to a pitcher offset those average gains? (For the first, you'd compare the above RE numbers with the bases empty state +1 out, weighted by likelihood of success)

I would not be at all surprised to see that the answer is "steal with 0 outs and a good chance of making it, stay put otherwise". I'd be very curious to see somebody actually do the math.

All that said, I think I like the idea of him batting 8th both because he'll probably see more fastballs and because his speed makes walking him a real problem.

All that research doesn't take into account the advantages of him hitting 7th vs 8th or any other part of the order. Sure, it's always great to successfully steal 2nd but there are times where it's less advantageuos than others and I'd argue the 7th spot is probably the least advantageous of all.

We agree on the bottomline--8th is a better spot than 7th

RedsManRick
02-22-2012, 12:55 PM
All that research doesn't take into account the advantages of him hitting 7th vs 8th or any other part of the order. Sure, it's always great to successfully steal 2nd but there are times where it's less advantageuos than others and I'd argue the 7th spot is probably the least advantageous of all.

We agree on the bottomline--8th is a better spot than 7th

Your chances of scoring from 1st base are the highest and the cost of being thrown out are the worst when you have your best hitters at the plate. I don't want my base runners to risk taking themselves off the basepaths for the marginal gain of advancing a base when Joey Votto and Jay Bruce are coming up. Nor do I want to encourage the other team to take the bat out of Votto's hands. Nearly 40% of Votto's hits go for extra bases and would score the runner anyways. The proportion of hits that go for extra bases for say, Hanigan, is half that.

I think, just based on the logic above, it's pretty clear that there's more added value from a stolen base attempt lower in the order than higher -- but I'm certainly open to somebody who can bring data to bear on it.

To the point above, the RE table really should be customized based on who is coming up. I've not been able to find a version of the tables that is based on spot in the lineup, but I agree that it probably varies substantially.

Edd Roush
02-22-2012, 02:12 PM
Your chances of scoring from 1st base are the highest and the cost of being thrown out are the worst when you have your best hitters at the plate. I don't want my base runners to risk taking themselves off the basepaths for the marginal gain of advancing a base when Joey Votto and Jay Bruce are coming up. Nor do I want to encourage the other team to take the bat out of Votto's hands. Nearly 40% of Votto's hits go for extra bases and would score the runner anyways. The proportion of hits that go for extra bases for say, Hanigan, is half that.

I think, just based on the logic above, it's pretty clear that there's more added value from a stolen base attempt lower in the order than higher -- but I'm certainly open to somebody who can bring data to bear on it.

To the point above, the RE table really should be customized based on who is coming up. I've not been able to find a version of the tables that is based on spot in the lineup, but I agree that it probably varies substantially.

Rick, thank you very much for elaborating the point I was trying to get across earlier. Having a base stealer in the 7 hole makes a lot more sense to me than in the one or two spots when getting caught stealing costs you a runner on for a Votto/Bruce extra base hit.

TRF
02-22-2012, 02:31 PM
Something I have yet to see... what physical effect does a quality/quantity base stealer like Stubbs, Bourn etc. have on the pitcher? How much does it change his approach? Does the idea that he might run mean the pitcher's tendencies change? does he now throw more fastball's? does throwing from the stretch affect the movement on his fastball? If the situation is 1 out or less, does the threat of a steal benefit the hitter? And since this scenario is more common at the top of the order, does the same effect happen at the bottom of the order?

traderumor
02-24-2012, 10:13 AM
Your chances of scoring from 1st base are the highest and the cost of being thrown out are the worst when you have your best hitters at the plate. I don't want my base runners to risk taking themselves off the basepaths for the marginal gain of advancing a base when Joey Votto and Jay Bruce are coming up. Nor do I want to encourage the other team to take the bat out of Votto's hands. Nearly 40% of Votto's hits go for extra bases and would score the runner anyways. The proportion of hits that go for extra bases for say, Hanigan, is half that.

I think, just based on the logic above, it's pretty clear that there's more added value from a stolen base attempt lower in the order than higher -- but I'm certainly open to somebody who can bring data to bear on it.

To the point above, the RE table really should be customized based on who is coming up. I've not been able to find a version of the tables that is based on spot in the lineup, but I agree that it probably varies substantially.While ok as a general rule, Bruce and Votto also hit into DPs, which a steal can prevent, as an example of a reason to use the steal when your best hitters are at the plate. Ground ball pitcher, maybe you take the extra base?

I don't think there should be any moratorium on using a strategy such as the steal, esp. for high percentage runners like Stubbs.

bucksfan2
02-24-2012, 10:36 AM
While ok as a general rule, Bruce and Votto also hit into DPs, which a steal can prevent, as an example of a reason to use the steal when your best hitters are at the plate. Ground ball pitcher, maybe you take the extra base?

I don't think there should be any moratorium on using a strategy such as the steal, esp. for high percentage runners like Stubbs.

Anytime you can advance a base successfully is a good thing, right? Even with Votto up, the pitcher throws a wild pitch the runner isn't going to stay put because it may take the bat out of his hand. Heck the best SB guys in history were leadoff type hitters and stole often with the #3 hitter up. You think Rickey Henderson really cared who was at bat when the took off for 2nd or 3rd base?

It has almost become taboo to some people to talk about stealing with the middle of your order up. I definately wouldn't call a batter take and runner steal, but if you had someone with the abilities of Stubbs he would have the green light in any situation. With opposing teams not expecting a runner to take off with your middle of the order hitters up, it may just be the best time to steal.

Topcat
02-27-2012, 10:27 PM
Trade him for Gerardo Parra if it is possible.