How Much Will Attendance Increase?

[mdccclxix]

Attendance should increase this year, but how much? Listening to Phil Castellini I didn't hear a resounding optimism. I'm sure they hoped for a big boost in ticket sales from all the activities in the off season. I'm not sure that's happened. From what it sounds like they are hoping the Reds get off to a quick start. They brought in 2,213,588 last year. His message to the fans this year, in somewhat urgent fashion, "You buy tickets, we buy players." The big crowds at Redsfest and the Caravan portend well, but will fans fill the stands to their hopes? I wonder if they can push 2.5, 2.6 mill?

[corkedbat]

Attendance should increase this year, but how much? Listening to Phil Castellini I didn't hear a resounding optimism. I'm sure they hoped for a big boost in ticket sales from all the activities in the off season. I'm not sure that's happened. From what it sounds like they are hoping the Reds get off to a quick start. They brought in 2,213,588 last year. His message to the fans this year, in somewhat urgent fashion, "You buy tickets, we buy players." The big crowds at Redsfest and the Caravan portend well, but will fans fill the stands to their hopes? I wonder if they can push 2.5, 2.6 mill?

To reach the 2.4M+ neighborhood, they will need several 100K weekend series

[Reds/Flyers Fan]

I think The Banks is going to play a big role in increased attendance this summer. There's a lot more there now than there was last summer, and by Opening Day even more places should be open. The fact that it's a destination now means people can come down early/stay late ... I think that equals big numbers this summer.

[Edd Roush]

I am being very bullish with my 2.5 million prediction. I agree with Reds/Flyers that the Banks will help attendance, but I think an even bigger factor is that the Reds will likely be competitive in late August/September, where last year many fans were very discouraged and didn't come late in the season. I think the upper limit is probably 2.6/2.7 because the Reds will get poor attendance for the weekday games in April, May and September.

[Always Red]

Just for reference (no pun intended ;)), attendance last year was 2,213,588 (10th of 16)

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CIN/2011-roster.shtml

I'll go with 2.3 million.

And I can't wait to try out the Moerlein Lager House, which will also serve as a museum and tribute, of sorts, to all beer brewed in Cincinnati past.

[Edd Roush]

Just for reference (no pun intended ;)), attendance last year was 2,213,588 (10th of 16)

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CIN/2011-roster.shtml

I'll go with 2.3 million.

And I can't wait to try out the Moerlein Lager House, which will also serve as a museum and tribute, of sorts, to all beer brewed in Cincinnati past.

Why don't you see much of a bump in 2013?

[Always Red]

Why don't you see much of a bump in 2013?

Usually the bump comes after a winning season, not in anticipation of one.

Having said that, I hope they draw 3 million. But heck, no one is drawing around here of late- Bengals, UC basketball or football. Xavier seems to be holding steady.

I thought 2.2 million was actually pretty good for last year, all things considered.

[BearcatShane]

If they play well out of the gate I don't think 2.5 mill is out of the question. The Banks will help. But most fans are probably like me, I come home from work about 5:30 and I might catch 2-5 week night games a year but I really get out to the ballpark on the weekends when I have a full day to schedule the game around.

[MikeS21]

I went with 2.3 million. My take is that the team will make the post season, but not make past the first round of the playoffs. In the end, I think they lose money and we'll see a fire sale come next off season.

[dougdirt]

I went with 2.3 million. My take is that the team will make the post season, but not make past the first round of the playoffs. In the end, I think they lose money and we'll see a fire sale come next off season.

Why would they lose money? They aren't spending any more than they did last year and I highly doubt they lost money last year after revenue sharing, MLBAM money, ticket sales and so on.

[Vottomatic]

One thing never talked about last season was the effect the record amount of rain played in attendance. Cincinnati got like 70+ inches of rain last year when I think the previous record was in the 40 inches.

I agree that being in contention come August/September is what will put this team in the 2.4 to 2.5 million range. Also, the injuries to Bailey and Cueto, and Arroyo having mono didn't help things.

A healthy team, a productive team, being in contention, good weather, etc..........will all determine how many fans show up.

[Reds/Flyers Fan]

One thing never talked about last season was the effect the record amount of rain played in attendance. Cincinnati got like 70+ inches of rain last year when I think the previous record was in the 40 inches.

I agree that being in contention come August/September is what will put this team in the 2.4 to 2.5 million range. Also, the injuries to Bailey and Cueto, and Arroyo having mono didn't help things.

A healthy team, a productive team, being in contention, good weather, etc..........will all determine how many fans show up.

This is a good point. There were several weekend games I went to on dreary, rainy days and that surely negatively impacted walk-up sales (which is big for the Reds).

That Sunday game in particular when the Reds swept the Cards (the game that words were exchanged after cordero hit pujols) was played on a gloomy, misty, rainy day. Had it had been a nice day, no doubt the game would have sold out. As it was, the weather kept the crowd down.

[reds1869]

This is a good point. There were several weekend games I went to on dreary, rainy days and that surely negatively impacted walk-up sales (which is big for the Reds).

That Sunday game in particular when the Reds swept the Cards (the game that words were exchanged after cordero hit pujols) was played on a gloomy, misty, rainy day. Had it had been a nice day, no doubt the game would have sold out. As it was, the weather kept the crowd down.

I also agree, and think your previous statement about The Banks helping out is accurate, too. Combine those factors with a better team and we are looking at a nice spike in attendance.

[redsmetz]

Last Friday's Business Courier had an article on the expected ticket sales this year; matching last years. The Reds, in the article, see that is a "victory" - I'm not putting that in quotes to disparage it, just to actually use their word. Interesting piece.

http://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/print-edition/2012/03/09/cincinnati-reds-expecting-ticket-sales.html

At the same time, while looking for the link online for the above article, I see too that they've doubled the number of games with higher ticket prices, a recent trend in professional sports pricing.

http://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/blog/2012/03/cincinnati-reds-double-games-with.html

[jojo]

The best thing that can happen for the Reds gate is for them to get out quickly from the gate.

[MikeThierry]

This is probably a stupid question but how is the economy is Cincy? Is it as devistated as in many areas or is it a place that has survived realitively well in this down time? I think a lot of people do underestimate that aspect of why people may or may not go to the ballpark.

[The Operator]

This is probably a stupid question but how is the economy is Cincy? Is it as devistated as in many areas or is it a place that has survived realitively well in this down time? I think a lot of people do underestimate that aspect of why people may or may not go to the ballpark.Not good.

Proctor and Gamble just announced 5,700 layoffs nationwide, a good number of which would have to be coming to Cincy. On top of that, you've got Appleton Papers in Dayton dropping 330 workers, the Dayton Post Office set to layoff 400, and Wright-Patt AFB laying off 400.

The tri-state area is hurting right now.

[Big Klu]

Around ten years ago, I used to go to 10-15 games a year. Last year I went to two (plus one in Pittsburgh). Unless things change unexpectedly, I will likely miss Opening Day for the first time in 14 years, even though my vacation is scheduled for April 5-9. I can no longer justify the expense to travel three hours for a game.

[Sea Ray]

Not good.

Proctor and Gamble just announced 5,700 layoffs nationwide, a good number of which would have to be coming to Cincy. On top of that, you've got Appleton Papers in Dayton dropping 330 workers, the Dayton Post Office set to layoff 400, and Wright-Patt AFB laying off 400.

The tri-state area is hurting right now.

Of course those layoffs haven't happened yet but right now Hamilton County is right about at the national avg at 8.3%

http://ohiolmi.com/laus/Ranking.pdf

But it's clearly one of the better numbers in the state

[Roy Tucker]

Of course those layoffs haven't happened yet but right now Hamilton County is right about at the national avg at 8.3%

http://ohiolmi.com/laus/Ranking.pdf

But it's clearly one of the better numbers in the state

Yeah, Cincinnati's economy is probably the most diverse in the state with P&G, GE AEBG, banks, insurance companies, etc.. It's less manufacturing based. It still gets hit by recessions, but its better than what has happened in the NE and NW parts of the state. They've really gotten clobbered.

[redsmetz]

I think the continued economic reality is why the Reds term matching last year's increase a victory. Coupled with the doubling of the number of games with increased pricing, I think they anticipate better revenues. Likewise, success on the field added with the possibility of some continuing economic rebound, it could be a number that rises. Again, I think that's what the team is hoping.