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Benihana
02-21-2012, 07:14 PM
Pedro Alvarez would be a shrewd acquisition target.

He struggled mightily last year and the Pirates' patience is reportedly wearing thin- they acquired Casey McGhee as an insurance policy.

Leatherpants notes on ESPN Insider that his career could easily follow a similar post-hype breakout career trajectory of Alex Gordon, a guy I wanted the Reds to go after last year before he broke out. He picks him as a player poised to erupt.

Reds are likely to have a vacancy at 3B possibly as early as this year's All-Star Break. At a minimum, Alvarez would be a good guy to push Francisco for competition as the 3B of the future. If they both work out, Alvarez could move to 1B after Votto leaves.

I'd see if Pittsburgh would bite on Masset. If not, I'd see what else they'd give along with Alvarez (perhaps Luis Heredia or Stetson Allie?) for Homer Bailey. Then I'd sign Oswalt :beerme:

reds1869
02-21-2012, 07:33 PM
I would love to see Alvarez in a Cincinnati uniform. The number of people bailing on him blows my mind.

RedsManRick
02-21-2012, 08:02 PM
I'm always for adding young talent, but Alvarez has a much bigger problem making contact than Gordon ever had. Alvarez is currently rocking a career K% north of 30.7%, compared to 21.5% for Gordon. For the record, Stubbs clocked in at 30.1% last year and Adam Dunn never cracked 29% as a Red. Both guys walk about 9-10% of the time, so Gordon puts the ball in play in 70% of his PA compared to 60% for Alvarez.

Over 600 PA, that means an extra 60 balls in play for Gordon, 420 vs. 360. If Gordon put up a .300 BABIP, Alvarez would need a .350 BABIP to put up the same batting average & OBP.

When you then see that Gordon's breakout season came on the back of a .358 BABIP (up from .254 in 2010), I think Alvarez's chances of doing something similar are extremely remote -- unless he drastically improves his strikeout rate. That's not to say he'd be a bad guy to bring aboard, just that his upside is limited.

Blitz Dorsey
02-22-2012, 12:05 PM
If the Pirates were to deal him, no way they'd deal him to a divisional foe. This is not like the Cubs trading Marshall to the Reds. Marshall only has one year left on his deal and then he'll be a free agent. If the Pirates traded Alvarez to the Reds, they know they'd have to face him for the next 8 years or so. Also, why would they want to deal him while his stock is so low? He was the #2 overall pick of the draft just three years ago -- no way they're looking to deal him yet. And even if they did, it wouldn't be to the Reds. Also, McGehee will play 1B not 3B for the Buccos.

bucksfan2
02-22-2012, 12:30 PM
I would love to see Alvarez in a Cincinnati uniform. The number of people bailing on him blows my mind.

The number of people you could say this about is long and pretty impressive. I heard a Pirate beat or radio guy talking about Alvarez on MLB Radio the other day. The gist of the conversation was that the Pirates wanted Alvarez to head to the Arizona fall league to work on his game. Alvarez instead headed out to California to work with a personal trainer. If this is all true I would understand why the Pirates have soured on him and also would raise some huge red flags in trying to acquirer him.

TRF
02-22-2012, 12:36 PM
If the Pirates were to deal him, no way they'd deal him to a divisional foe. This is not like the Cubs trading Marshall to the Reds. Marshall only has one year left on his deal and then he'll be a free agent. If the Pirates traded Alvarez to the Reds, they know they'd have to face him for the next 8 years or so. Also, why would they want to deal him while his stock is so low? He was the #2 overall pick of the draft just three years ago -- no way they're looking to deal him yet. And even if they did, it wouldn't be to the Reds. Also, McGehee will play 1B not 3B for the Buccos.

If the Pirates traded him, wouldn't it be because deep down they don't believe he can be a good player? Maybe Alvarez is what he is, a free swinging guess hitter with a history of attitude problems and a large frame that seems to be getting larger. Sure he can turn it around, but how has holding on to prospects while trading away guys like Aramis Ramirez helped them?

I don't think the Pirates, if they decide to trade him will care where he goes so long as they get what they want in return. To be honest, looking at his numbers, is he really better than Juan Francisco? Because I don't see it.

RedlegJake
02-22-2012, 12:42 PM
TRF I was just going to post don't we basically have the same guy just without as much hype in Juan Francisco? Huge power, free swinger without any idea of patience or discipline? Except Juan likely has a better attitude...

cincinnati chili
02-23-2012, 01:42 AM
If the Pirates were to deal him, no way they'd deal him to a divisional foe. This is not like the Cubs trading Marshall to the Reds. Marshall only has one year left on his deal and then he'll be a free agent. If the Pirates traded Alvarez to the Reds, they know they'd have to face him for the next 8 years or so.

Depends. If you think he's crap, then by all means keep him within your own division. For similar reasons, I'd love for Walt to ship Bronson to the Cardinals.

Ghosts of 1990
02-23-2012, 11:18 AM
I'm still a believer that he can string together enough streaks to have a couple really nice seasons. I think he'll do it in a Pittsburgh uniform too.

Tom Servo
02-23-2012, 02:16 PM
For some reason I confused Pedro Alvarez and Pedro Feliz in my head and couldn't understand why this was even being discussed.

Griffey012
02-23-2012, 03:04 PM
Maybe we could swap juan duran for alvarez...or a similar high upside high risk prospect for him. I would take a flier on him that way for sure. It is never a bad thing to acquire former very highly ranked prospects. While there are busts, many are the for a reason.