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faffy42
02-27-2012, 06:58 PM
Reds look good at pitching and defense. I'm concerned about our run production. I see our #4 hitter being the key. Who will be #4 behind Votto? We need someone who will protect Votto and drive in runs.

Ohayou
02-27-2012, 07:21 PM
Rolen, if he's healthy.

brad1176
02-27-2012, 07:24 PM
The four hole will see a few different faces, depending on match ups. I could see Rolen, Bruce, Ludwick, and Heisey all getting at bats there.

Nathan
02-27-2012, 11:27 PM
I don't understand why everyone is so worried about the line-up. That should be the least of everyone's worries.

nux fan
02-28-2012, 12:14 AM
rolen is lucky to be a number 14 hitter, he has been pure anemia since the second half of 2010

Ownagedood
02-29-2012, 03:37 PM
That spot belongs to Bruce. Not sure who else would beat him out for that. He's our biggest hitter aside from Votto. Then Rolen can bat behind him at 5.

Birdman007
02-29-2012, 04:11 PM
You've got to think Bruce if he can be a little more consistent. I mean he did have 32 hrs and 97 rbi last year.

Magdal
03-01-2012, 11:57 AM
You've got to think Bruce if he can be a little more consistent. I mean he did have 32 hrs and 97 rbi last year.Yep....Rolen and Ludwick are utterly out of the question. I would put Lud @ 5. Rolen will be on the DL most of the time anyway.

Anyone but Bruce would be insanity.

jhu1321
03-01-2012, 12:08 PM
I'd actually like to see Votto hit 4 and Bruce 3. Votto would provide more protection for Bruce than vice-versa and Votto can handle breaking pitches etc.. better than Bruce. I know it defies baseball logic but I think both guy's would be super productive in that scenario.

Magdal
03-01-2012, 12:53 PM
I'd actually like to see Votto hit 4 and Bruce 3. Votto would provide more protection for Bruce than vice-versa and Votto can handle breaking pitches etc.. better than Bruce. I know it defies baseball logic but I think both guy's would be super productive in that scenario.That's acually a dam good idea. But it won't happen. Dusty is too old to learn a new trick.

brad1176
03-01-2012, 01:19 PM
Yep....Rolen and Ludwick are utterly out of the question. I would put Lud @ 5. Rolen will be on the DL most of the time anyway.

Anyone but Bruce would be insanity.

It depends on the match up, Bruce against LH starters last year: .218/.327/.444 with a .771 OPS in 156 PA.

Captain13
03-01-2012, 02:05 PM
I honestly love the idea of Bruce in front of Votto, but maybe in the 2-3 spots and then Rolen in the four. Also I hope Ludwick is batting 10th; I want Chris in LF.

Jamz
03-01-2012, 02:16 PM
I like the idea of Phillips - Cozart - Votto - Bruce. Bruce works really well as a clean-up hitter especially if you buy into the idea that he can find some consistency to his hitting and have a 'break-out' year this year. He is coming into his prime after all.

But it's something worth thinking about platooning even...Stubbs mashes lefties so we could run Stubbs in the 4 spot against lefties and Bruce in the 4 spot against righties.

jhu1321
03-01-2012, 02:31 PM
I honestly love the idea of Bruce in front of Votto, but maybe in the 2-3 spots and then Rolen in the four. Also I hope Ludwick is batting 10th; I want Chris in LF.

That would be an amazing top 3 with Phillips - Bruce - Votto but we could get into trouble when you get Rolen - Heisey/Luddy - Stubbs - Cozart - catcher. Believe me, I think they all have potential to have good years (except Rolen) but there are some definite question marks in there as well.If our young guys, Cozart & Mez struggle at the plate this year, that lineup would be big trouble sans the top 3.

texasdave
03-01-2012, 02:35 PM
I honestly love the idea of Bruce in front of Votto, but maybe in the 2-3 spots and then Rolen in the four. Also I hope Ludwick is batting 10th; I want Chris in LF.

This. Don't drop Votto down in the lineup where he will get less at-bats over the course of a season.

Jamz
03-01-2012, 02:44 PM
That would be an amazing top 3 with Phillips - Bruce - Votto but we could get into trouble when you get Rolen - Heisey/Luddy - Stubbs - Cozart - catcher. Believe me, I think they all have potential to have good years (except Rolen) but there are some definite question marks in there as well.If our young guys, Cozart & Mez struggle at the plate this year, that lineup would be big trouble sans the top 3.

This is why it's somewhat important to 'spread out the wealth' so to speak. Although you want your best hitters hitting as often as possible, it's hard for them to get maximum value if there's no depth to the line-up.

vs. RHP

Phillips - Cozart - Votto - Bruce - Rolen - Mesoraco - Stubbs - Heisey/Ludwick

vs. LHP

Phillips - Cozart - Votto - Stubbs - Bruce - Mesoraco - Rolen - Heisey/Ludwick

Ultimately if we have to pick one person to 'own' the 4th hitter spot I would go with Bruce every time. 25 year old season and he has the most HRs of anyone in the MLB under 25 (including Justin Upton.) Fingers crossed that this year he puts it all together and becomes more consistent. I don't expect him to represent what he had in May last year full time, but a line of 35/85/105 with an OBP of .350+ would be nice and not out of this world.

Magdal
03-01-2012, 03:02 PM
This. Don't drop Votto down in the lineup where he will get less at-bats over the course of a season.That was LaRussa's thinking the last few years when he had his highest OBP men BEHIND Pujols. I say bat Votto 4th. He will see MORE men on base in front of him. (and 1 position removed from the pitcher) later in the game.

texasdave
03-01-2012, 04:54 PM
This is why it's somewhat important to 'spread out the wealth' so to speak. Although you want your best hitters hitting as often as possible, it's hard for them to get maximum value if there's no depth to the line-up.


Do you have any type of link to an article that supports this idea? Never heard of the concept myself. Getting your better hitters less at-bats to improve your lineup seems counterintuitive to me.

Magdal
03-01-2012, 05:00 PM
Do you have any type of link to an article that supports this idea? Never heard of the concept myself. Getting your better hitters less at-bats to improve your lineup seems counterintuitive to me.So Dave: what you are saying is that Votto should be the leadoff man.

Wonderful Monds
03-01-2012, 05:16 PM
So Dave: what you are saying is that Votto should be the leadoff man.

I think his is a good point. You want your hitters to get as many appearances as possible while still putting them in the spot best for them. I think 3rd is best for Votto, gets him an extra AB while still allowing for runners to get on in front of him. I know if there are tight games where we're trailing and running out of outs, I'd rather see Votto coming up sooner than Bruce.

texasdave
03-01-2012, 05:36 PM
So Dave: what you are saying is that Votto should be the leadoff man.

I'd love to see a manager with the huevos to try that. Best hitter first and so on down the line. If baseball truly is a game of numbers this approach would seem to be the best.

LeDoux
03-01-2012, 05:42 PM
I'd love to see a manager with the huevos to try that. Best hitter first and so on down the line. If baseball truly is a game of numbers this approach would seem to be the best.

Holy Judas! Talk about needing a Bakermetrics review. A lineup card like you suggest would be Dusty’s personal third horseman of the apocalypse.

OGB
03-01-2012, 05:46 PM
I'd love to see a manager with the huevos to try that. Best hitter first and so on down the line. If baseball truly is a game of numbers this approach would seem to be the best.

I've got to admit, I'd love to see how this approach actually worked over the course of a month or so.

Jamz
03-01-2012, 08:00 PM
Do you have any type of link to an article that supports this idea? Never heard of the concept myself. Getting your better hitters less at-bats to improve your lineup seems counterintuitive to me.

I don't have any empirical statistics to support what I said as I haven't been heavy into baseball statistics until recently and I don't think it's something that would be easy to quantify anyway...but it seems logical to me. Even your best hitters aren't always going to be on base, or get on base, and although your worst hitters aren't always going to be outs it makes some sense to me that by at least mixing some decent hitters near the bottom of the order in professional baseball it gives some protection to the bad hitters and in turn gives chemistry to the line-up in general (if the "bad" hitters get better looks the chances of going through the line-up increase and thus the hitters at the top of the order get more at bats etc.)

I know the objective is to get your batters up as much as possible, and of your batters you want your top batters getting the most looks. With that said batting someone like Cozart 2nd gives him a level of protection he wouldn't have further down in the order because pitchers will have to pitch to him because they fear Votto more. So maybe he gets more hits and by getting the bad batters more hits you have a better chance of generating runs and at bats for the good batters...no? By staggering the line-up in that sense (with still more of the better hitters batting early) I think you have a better chance of getting through your line-up than by loading up at the front.

There may be evidence against this though and I could be completely off. Although, from what I've heard the order of the line-up itself in truth matters very little.

Magdal
03-02-2012, 08:24 AM
I read that moving up 1 spot in the order gives a hitter 28 more plate appearances per year. You gotta figure that you will be winning at least 60% of the time and not really need him for a final AB. So really, it's only about 10 to 12 more AB's in a whole season.

So it seems to me that Votto will drive in more runs in the 4 hole. But if moved to LEADOFF the number of AB's double to 56. Hmmm....but then for 3 or 4 of his last AB's he will follow the #8 hitter and the pitcher/pinch hitter. I dont like THAT scenario!

swaisuc
03-02-2012, 09:21 AM
Honestly, I would vote for almost anywhere (including leadoff) before 3rd. It isn't just about driving in runs for Joey, he's also our best OBP guy by a long shot. Batting 3rd, he's up with 2 outs and nobody on WAY too much. Part of that is our lack of OBP guys in the 1/2 spots, but it is true on the whole anyway. Batting 4th, you either have guys to drive in or you're leading off lots of innings. In either case, you're batting in higher leverage situations.

If you want him 3rd for more AB's than 4th, disregarding the leverage of those AB's, then just go ahead and move him to 1st. Either the quantity of the AB's are more important than the situations or they aren't.

Krawhitham
03-02-2012, 12:08 PM
Rolen, if he's healthy.

Rolen has not been a worthy cleanup hitter for nearly a decade

goreds2
03-04-2012, 07:46 AM
Reds may bat Ludwick cleanup
By Mark Sheldon / MLB.com
Saturday, March 3, 2012 7:49 PM ET
GOODYEAR, Ariz. -- For the first exhibition game on Saturday, manager Dusty Baker's lineup had left fielder Ryan Ludwick batting fourth behind Joey Votto. Ludwick has some experience batting in that spot behind a superstar, having done it in St. Louis behind Albert Pujols.
"We'll see if he is the same Ludwick," Baker said. "Or Ludwick revisited. He's done it. He's hit left-handers well, [it helps] especially on days I want to split up [Jay] Bruce and Votto."
Ludwick has better power numbers lifetime in the fourth spot, but a much better average in the second spot. He's a .257 hitter in 258 starts batting fourth with 47 homers and 199 RBIs. In the two-hole, he's a .314 hitter with a .390 on-base percentage.

* Sent from BlackBerry *

The DARK
03-04-2012, 03:56 PM
It's not ideal, but a Ludwick stepping up may be the best we can hope for. Rolen can't be expected to play more than 2/3 of the games and is better suited to a position that requires smart at-bats, like the 2-hole. Ludwick might benefit from getting balls to hit between Votto and Bruce, and his experience at the spot is a lot more than what the rest of this team has had to offer these last two seasons. Bruce's flaws can be easily exploited, and would be better in a role where he doesn't need to sell out for power. Ditto for Stubbs and Heisey.