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View Full Version : Why are people so hard on Stubbs?



Jamz
03-06-2012, 06:07 PM
I know it's because people expect more from him, but realistically speaking over the last two years he's been the 11th best CF in the league (according to WAR from fangraphs.)

Most people should probably expect his numbers to improve from last year (as long as they bat him lower in the order...7th ideally.)

Personally I think he's one of the better CFs in the league and he's a very valuable player. But I'm genuinely interested in hearing what you guys have to say about him.

mroby85
03-06-2012, 07:05 PM
Personally, I think Stubbs gets a lot more of a break than many players, simply because he appears so talented, and shows flashes of a high ceiling. I find him to be one of the more frustrating players i've ever watched because he constantly strikes out, making unproductive outs, and doesn't seem to be improving much with all the playing time. I agree that his potential is endless, but I think that makes him even more frustrating at times.

tedies
03-07-2012, 12:09 AM
205ish strikeouts last year, and the fact the fastest player on our team can't put down a bunt. How is this a question?

joshua
03-07-2012, 12:26 AM
He was projected to be the lead off hitter of the future. After a good 2010 he came out and basically crapped his pants in 2011, striking out a mind boggling amount of times. He struck out more last year than every other player in MLB history minus Mark Reynolds and batted .243. That's something your lead off hitter of the future isn't supposed to do. AT ALL. He needs to learn some pitch recognition, and once he does (IF he does) he'll be a great player. Until then he's just another player with all star potential who can't get it together at the plate and to watch him go up there and struggle and lead an outfield that K's 500 times a season is frustrating.

OGB
03-07-2012, 01:27 AM
205ish strikeouts last year, and the fact the fastest player on our team can't put down a bunt. How is this a question?

Agree, it reeks of a guy who doesn't take his craft seriously. That aside, I'm a fan of Stubbs and hope he puts it together. I think there is a lot of frustration inherent in the Reds propensity to strike out over the last decade that makes fans angrier at Stubbs. If he were more of a contact hitter/had slightly better plate discipline/learned how to bunt, he has the natural ability to be an MVP candidate.

joshua
03-07-2012, 02:19 AM
I think every time he comes to the plate he holds his breath and tries to smack the cover off the ball. It's not like the kid doesn't already know how to take a walk...if he could just relax and focus on slapping balls into the gaps he'd be a much more consistent player. With his speed all he really needs to do is put the ball in play and let his legs do all the work he'd rack up plenty of extra base hits and be the perfect lead off guy. Imagine that version of Drew Stubbs leading off with Phillips, Votto and Bruce coming up behind him...

Maker_84
03-07-2012, 03:04 AM
205ish strikeouts last year, and the fact the fastest player on our team can't put down a bunt. How is this a question?

This

jwmann2
03-07-2012, 03:54 AM
205ish strikeouts last year, and the fact the fastest player on our team can't put down a bunt. How is this a question?

I agree. Better than Willy Taveras and Corey Patterson though. Hope he can revive his young career in 2012. His strikeouts remind me Mark Reynolds in Baltimore. Great player, just terrible pitch selection.

nmculbreth
03-07-2012, 04:01 AM
He was projected to be the lead off hitter of the future. After a good 2010 he came out and basically crapped his pants in 2011, striking out a mind boggling amount of times. He struck out more last year than every other player in MLB history minus Mark Reynolds and batted .243. That's something your lead off hitter of the future isn't supposed to do. AT ALL. He needs to learn some pitch recognition, and once he does (IF he does) he'll be a great player. Until then he's just another player with all star potential who can't get it together at the plate and to watch him go up there and struggle and lead an outfield that K's 500 times a season is frustrating.

In fairness the book on Stubbs even prior to being drafted was that he had a suspect hit tool and he's done nothing since then to prove otherwise, so I think the notion that he was the leadoff hitter of the future was misguided.

Stubbs does a lot of things well. He's an above average defensive CF with double digit homers and the potential to steal 40+ bases. Even with his many flaws, he's still an above average player at his position and he's cheap. While I'm doubtful that he'll ever grow to be the kind of player you'd want to build around, he's a useful player.

swaisuc
03-07-2012, 09:36 AM
2 things. The perception is that he has terrible fundamentals. Fans hate this.

The other is that his skill set doesn't match what we (fans) want him to be. We need a leadoff hitter and he's really fast. Wouldn't it be nice if he was a high on base guy? The only problem is he's never really been that guy and probably won't be. He's more of a power hitter than anything else and miscasting him as a bad leadoff hitter (rather than a good 6/7 guy) isn't doing anyone any favors.

brad1176
03-07-2012, 09:54 AM
205 K's. At least Dunn hit home runs....

Jamz
03-07-2012, 09:54 AM
In fairness the book on Stubbs even prior to being drafted was that he had a suspect hit tool and he's done nothing since then to prove otherwise, so I think the notion that he was the leadoff hitter of the future was misguided.

Stubbs does a lot of things well. He's an above average defensive CF with double digit homers and the potential to steal 40+ bases. Even with his many flaws, he's still an above average player at his position and he's cheap. While I'm doubtful that he'll ever grow to be the kind of player you'd want to build around, he's a useful player.

But this is kind of what makes me a little confused. Even without being the star that he has the potential to be he is still an above average player and he's extremely useful for the team. It can be frustrating that he hasn't put it all together yet, but this is his 27 year old season so maybe he will finally put it all together? He's tearing up spring training right now (I know, it's just spring training.)

brad1176
03-07-2012, 09:55 AM
205 K's. At least Dunn hit home runs....

jhu1321
03-07-2012, 10:10 AM
I think Stubbs will be fine. A 27 year old CF with lightning speed, power and the ability to both score and drive in runs, yes please. Nobody is denying he had a horrible year last year but I agree with the consensus, he was miscast. Assuming Dusty doesn't poop his pants again he'll bat Stubbs somewhere between 5-7 and I see him bouncing back to something like this .265/25/80. I'll take it.

nmculbreth
03-07-2012, 11:22 AM
But this is kind of what makes me a little confused. Even without being the star that he has the potential to be he is still an above average player and he's extremely useful for the team. It can be frustrating that he hasn't put it all together yet, but this is his 27 year old season so maybe he will finally put it all together? He's tearing up spring training right now (I know, it's just spring training.)

I don't think he has star potential.

Other than his speed, he doesn't have any elite tools. His power ceiling is probably somewhere around 25 hrs, which is good but not great. His defense in CF is good, but not elite. His contact rate is bad, which limits his ability to effectively work the count and become a high OBP hitter. As such, I just don't think he has the skill set to make the leap from an effective, above average player to a star level.

At heart I think a lot of the Stubbs debate comes back to expectations. If you're expecting a star, you're likely going to end frustrated and disappointed.

nux fan
03-07-2012, 11:44 AM
we are too hard on him he should be given a chance to strike out 300 times

Copenhagenkid91
03-07-2012, 01:02 PM
I don't think he has star potential.

Other than his speed, he doesn't have any elite tools. His power ceiling is probably somewhere around 25 hrs, which is good but not great. His defense in CF is good, but not elite. His contact rate is bad, which limits his ability to effectively work the count and become a high OBP hitter. As such, I just don't think he has the skill set to make the leap from an effective, above average player to a star level.

At heart I think a lot of the Stubbs debate comes back to expectations. If you're expecting a star, you're likely going to end frustrated and disappointed.

I agree, when i first heard of him and saw the amount of speed he had i believed he would develop into a good leadoff man. At least i hoped he would considering who would hit behind him. watching him strikeout 205 times last year made it apparent a star leadoff man is not what he is, nor is it what he will ever be. Hopefully he can find his niche in the 6-7 spot in the lineup and provide a good spark for the bottom part of the order

Jamz
03-07-2012, 02:48 PM
I don't think he has star potential.

Other than his speed, he doesn't have any elite tools. His power ceiling is probably somewhere around 25 hrs, which is good but not great. His defense in CF is good, but not elite. His contact rate is bad, which limits his ability to effectively work the count and become a high OBP hitter. As such, I just don't think he has the skill set to make the leap from an effective, above average player to a star level.

At heart I think a lot of the Stubbs debate comes back to expectations. If you're expecting a star, you're likely going to end frustrated and disappointed.

I guess we'll agree to disagree there. His speed and power combination suggest that he could flirt with 20-25/40+ a year which on this team should yield at least 90 runs depending on who is batting after him and a decent number of RBIs. His OBP before coming to the MLB was always consistently above .350 so it's not unreasonable to believe that he should be able to stabilize at .330+ and have a batting average of .250+.

With a line of 20-25/90+/60+/40+ and .250+ I would consider that a star player and it would make him a top 5 CF in the league. He's more than capable of that. His pitch recognition isn't the problem IMO it's his mentality. He absolutely refuses to swing at meaty pitches a lot of the time. His BABIP should always be high based on his speed, so if he were a bit more aggressive at the plate his average/OBP could see a reasonable spike as a lot of his strikeouts are due to falling behind in the count and then swinging at things he shouldn't be. I remember someone posting the numbers of his OBP when he swung at the first pitch vs. when he didn't and they were much better. IIRC he is also working on his bunting (he laid down a beautiful bunt against Cleveland recently) which I believe will also help.

That said even a 15/90/60/40 .250 CF is well above average and without the pressure of being a lead off hitter contributes a lot to the team when you consider his + defence.

texasdave
03-07-2012, 03:27 PM
In 2010 Stubbs put up this line: 22/91/77/30/.255. The Reds would probably take that again in a heartbeat, especially after seeing his 2011 season. Those numbers are very close to the star-level you suggest and yet they netted him 8th in WAR value out of 15 qualified NL CFers.
In 2011 Stubbs put up this line: 15/92/44/40/.243. The Reds are hopeful that was simply a sophomore slump. Those numbers earned him 9th in WAR value out of 10 qualified NL CFers.

The main problem is his defensive numbers are mediocre. If you take his 2010 and 2011 combined he is a tick under average as a CF, ranking 7th out of 12. And that is definitely not plus defense.

The numbers suggest that in his first two seasons as a starting CFer in the league he has been thoroughly average. And certainly not a star.

His tools lead one to believe he is capable of much more. I, like many Reds' fans, would love to see it happen.

texasdave
03-07-2012, 03:51 PM
Article on Stubbs from the Enquirer.

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20120306/COL03/303060116/Doc-Same-swing-fewer-misses-?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|

Stubbs thinks he's a pretty good player already, thank you very much, and is not going to change his approach. He must not have noticed his crappy 2011 season.
Baker says pitchers started pitching him tougher. His 205 Ks would lead a person to believe that Drew didn't have an answer.
Let's hope he found one over the winter.

krm1580
03-07-2012, 03:53 PM
Unfortunately I think he started out on the wrong foot when we was drafted ahead of Tim Lincecum. While Timmy was out winning his first Cy Young, the pitching starved Reds were watching Stubbs spend most of the same season flailing away in High A. While it is starting to wane somewhat I think there will always be a sense of what could have been with Stubbs.

The other piece of it is hard to explain but I guess I would classify it as the way we view tools guys. There is always a belief that you can teach baseball skills to guys with tools but you cannot give tools to guys that have only baseball skills. Essentially you believe you can teach Aroldis Chapman command and how to throw a change up, but no matter what you do you will never be able to get Mike Leake to throw 100mph. Because of that if both pitchers ended up with the exact same numbers we would either view Mike Leake as an overacheiver or Chapman as an underachiever. We would not view them in the same regard.

Stubbs has this wealth of tools so the expectation is once he starts developing baseball skills to go along with it he will be something special. 2010 was exciting because it was veiwed as a big step forward on his way to reaching a high ceiling. 2011 was a big step back. I think if he was 22 or 23 years old people would be more patient, but the thing is he is 27 and supposed to be close to a finished product.

I have always said that the biggest problem with Adam Dunn is that he never improved from his rookie year to the year they let him go. Every year people though was the year he would break out and become an elite player, but it never happend. This is a big year for Stubbs. If he is back to 2010 or possibly better, I think everybody will be happy. If he repeats what he did last year people will view him in the same light as Adam Dunn minus the effort issues, a guy whos potential far exceeded his production.

texasdave
03-07-2012, 04:00 PM
Unfortunately I think he started out on the wrong foot when we was drafted ahead of Tim Lincecum. While Timmy was out winning his first Cy Young, the pitching starved Reds were watching Stubbs spend most of the same season flailing away in High A. While it is starting to wane somewhat I think there will always be a sense of what could have been with Stubbs.

The other piece of it is hard to explain but I guess I would classify it as the way we view tools guys. There is always a belief that you can teach baseball skills to guys with tools but you cannot give tools to guys that have only baseball skills. Essentially you believe you can teach Aroldis Chapman command and how to throw a change up, but no matter what you do you will never be able to get Mike Leake to throw 100mph. Because of that if both pitchers ended up with the exact same numbers we would either view Mike Leake as an overacheiver or Chapman as an underachiever. We would not view them in the same regard.

Stubbs has this wealth of tools so the expectation is once he starts developing baseball skills to go along with it he will be something special. 2010 was exciting because it was veiwed as a big step forward on his way to reaching a high ceiling. 2011 was a big step back. I think if he was 22 or 23 years old people would be more patient, but the thing is he is 27 and supposed to be close to a finished product.

I have always said that the biggest problem with Adam Dunn is that he never improved from his rookie year to the year they let him go. Every year people though was the year he would break out and become an elite player, but it never happend. This is a big year for Stubbs. If he is back to 2010 or possibly better, I think everybody will be happy. If he repeats what he did last year people will view him in the same light as Adam Dunn minus the effort issues, a guy whos potential far exceeded his production.

Well-stated. But I think Stubbs would have been better served to offer that he has been working on some new things, even if he hasn't. For him to have a down year in 2011 and then come to spring training and say he isn't changing his approach isn't what the fans want to hear. Maybe in the end it makes absolutely no difference in his performance. I think he can be a solid player. I don't believe he will ever be a star in this league. That being said, a little public relations savvy never hurt anyone.

PS I was going to opine on Adam Dunn but decided to leave that particular can of worms unopened.

joshua
03-07-2012, 04:48 PM
From that article: "You don’t want to give away some of the damage you can do, just to try to punch the ball around,”

So it seems that despite having the third worst season for strikeouts in the history of baseball, he's not going to change his approach. Screw that. He's basically laughing at the idea of improvement. I would trade him. We don't need another 200 K's added to our OF this season.

AintlifeGrande
03-07-2012, 04:52 PM
With ''Hackaway Dusty''at the helm,would not surprise me at all seeing Stubbs leadoff again.

lidspinner
03-08-2012, 10:30 AM
my frustration with Drew is simple...how many guys with his speed do you see stand up there and take 2 fastballs only to swing at a breaking ball in the dirt....its not hard Drew, if your a power hitter which youve said you want to be then you have to go up there with the hacker mentality, and you dont.....

my 2nd issue with this meat head is he almost refuses to learn the craft of bunting....according to Dusty he is working on it this spring and has been working on it all along, but if you just toss in a bunt a week his average would improve dramatically, jsut the fact that the 3rd baseman knows he is capable of bunting would force him to play shallow at 3rd and give Drew an extra 3-5 feet to the 5-6 hole to work with not to mention he can then bounce it over the 3rd baseman or bloop it over him.....you dont have to bunt to get that hit, you just have to make them think you can and will bunt if you need to....

Pete Rose once said that he refused to bunt in a certain situation and the defense knew it so he laid down bunts the whole batting practice, he did this because the other team would always have a assistant coach watch them hit and report back who was working on different things, Pete said that when he got up there for his first at bat the 3rd basemen played him up in the grass....he laughed and slapped it between him and the SS...a ball that normally would have been scooped up by the 3rd baseman had he been playing back in his regualar spot.....its simply, force the defense to play where you want them and then hit it where they aint.....easier said then done but all Drew has to do is put the thought of bunting in the opposing teams head and viola, batting average goes up

swaisuc
03-08-2012, 10:45 AM
I also wanted to mention that this thread seems to imply Stubbs is being unfairly attacked after a decent year. He was awful last year by any standard. A lot of us try to give him a pass (including myself at times) for his low OBP and K's because he hits some HR's, but the reality is he slugged .364 last year. For comparison, that is just barely above Ryan Hannigan and still 33 points below the corpse of Scott Rolen.

texasdave
03-08-2012, 11:22 AM
23. Cincinnati Reds
Role Player Bats PA ZIPS BA ZIPS OBP ZIPS SLG Fielding WAR
Starter Drew Stubbs R 600 .240 .317 .388 4 2.5
Reserve Chris Heisey R 100 .258 .317 .446 2 0.5

Drew Stubbs played nearly every game in center field for the Reds in 2011 and looks to do the same in 2012. Stubbs doesn’t hit for average but has decent power and good speed. He’s also an above-average defender in center. Chris Heisey, the Reds starting left fielder, will back up Stubbs in center. If he plays 100 innings there, he’ll add good value to what Stubbs already brings to the table.

Fangraphs has Stubbs (basically) rated as the 23rd best centerfielder. Or to be more precise, they have the Reds' CF position ranked 23rd. Hard to argue after the season Drew had in 2011. The jury is out on him this season. Fangraphs would have a hard time calling DS a star.

Jamz
03-08-2012, 11:29 AM
my frustration with Drew is simple...how many guys with his speed do you see stand up there and take 2 fastballs only to swing at a breaking ball in the dirt....its not hard Drew, if your a power hitter which youve said you want to be then you have to go up there with the hacker mentality, and you dont.....

my 2nd issue with this meat head is he almost refuses to learn the craft of bunting....according to Dusty he is working on it this spring and has been working on it all along, but if you just toss in a bunt a week his average would improve dramatically, jsut the fact that the 3rd baseman knows he is capable of bunting would force him to play shallow at 3rd and give Drew an extra 3-5 feet to the 5-6 hole to work with not to mention he can then bounce it over the 3rd baseman or bloop it over him.....you dont have to bunt to get that hit, you just have to make them think you can and will bunt if you need to....

Pete Rose once said that he refused to bunt in a certain situation and the defense knew it so he laid down bunts the whole batting practice, he did this because the other team would always have a assistant coach watch them hit and report back who was working on different things, Pete said that when he got up there for his first at bat the 3rd basemen played him up in the grass....he laughed and slapped it between him and the SS...a ball that normally would have been scooped up by the 3rd baseman had he been playing back in his regualar spot.....its simply, force the defense to play where you want them and then hit it where they aint.....easier said then done but all Drew has to do is put the thought of bunting in the opposing teams head and viola, batting average goes up

I believe he has been working on his bunt. He showed it in spring training (albeit only once) this year already. I hope he gains confidence from how he has been playing in ST this year. His bunt was literally perfect btw. I agree that his OBP will jump by a relatively significant amount if he starts bunting more often. The more important thing is swinging at fastballs though -- especially those first meaty pitches.


Fangraphs has Stubbs (basically) rated as the 23rd best centerfielder. Or to be more precise, they have the Reds' CF position ranked 23rd. Hard to argue after the season Drew had in 2011. The jury is out on him this season. Fangraphs would have a hard time calling DS a star.

I don't really agree with their ranking...especially seeing who is in front of him, but that's ok because I believe this is his year.