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nate
03-06-2012, 09:23 PM
Another positional ranking. The Reds fare (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/positional-power-rankings-second-base/) well!

Tease:


Brandon Phillips has definitely established himself as one of the elite second basemen in baseball. While he doesn’t walk as much as you might like, he makes up for that with power and incredible defense

MikeThierry
03-07-2012, 12:53 PM
Wow the Cards are bad at that position. I hope Kolten Wong takes the bull by the horns and wins this position in a year or so. If Reds fans had the likes of Skip Schumaker bobbling balls all season long, I think alcohol would be the norm here in the Reds Zone.

_Sir_Charles_
03-07-2012, 01:58 PM
I know Pedroia is an excellent defender, but I'm shocked at how much higher his defensive ranking was over Phillips. I'm sorry, but I just don't see any defender at 2nd who is better than Phillips right now. Range, arm, accuracy, quickness on turning the dp, even ingenuity.

I do agree with Nate and think his bat will regress this season though.

MikeThierry
03-07-2012, 02:28 PM
I know Pedroia is an excellent defender, but I'm shocked at how much higher his defensive ranking was over Phillips. I'm sorry, but I just don't see any defender at 2nd who is better than Phillips right now. Range, arm, accuracy, quickness on turning the dp, even ingenuity.

I do agree with Nate and think his bat will regress this season though.

If you go by the advanced stats, Dustin Pedroia was the best defensive 2B in the game. He had a 17.9 UZR last season compared to Phillips 11.4. There is probably only one other 2nd baseman better than Pedroia at the plate right now. That is why I don't disagree with the #1 rating for Boston.

_Sir_Charles_
03-07-2012, 02:48 PM
Don't get me wrong, I agreed with the #1 ranking for the Sox. I just don't agree with the UZR ratings in this regard. Oh well.

757690
03-07-2012, 02:59 PM
Don't get me wrong, I agreed with the #1 ranking for the Sox. I just don't agree with the UZR ratings in this regard. Oh well.

That 17.9 UZR 150 rating was an anomaly for Pedroia last season. He's excellent in the field, but over the last five years, he's averaged around a 9 UZR 150 season. Phillips on the other had has averaged an 11 UZR 150. So you're eyes were right, Brandon has been better defensively over their careers.

MikeThierry
03-07-2012, 03:16 PM
That 17.9 UZR 150 rating was an anomaly for Pedroia last season. He's excellent in the field, but over the last five years, he's averaged around a 9 UZR 150 season. Phillips on the other had has averaged an 11 UZR 150. So you're eyes were right, Brandon has been better defensively over their careers.

Pedroia is also going into his age 28 season and is in the prime of his career. It doesn't surprise me that Pedroia's defense has matured with his age. Phillips is still great but he is over 30. No question that Phillips has had a better career thus far. However, this is the Pujols argument for me. I love what Pujols did in his career but I would take Joey Votto at this point in both of their careers. There is simply more upside right now with Pedroia than there is Phillips both defensively and on offense. Still, debating Pedroia vs. Phillips is like debating whether you would like to have ice cream or cake. Both are awesome to have. As a Cards fan, I'm extremely jealous of what the Reds have at 2nd base and would take Phillips in an instant over the JAG's my team is running out there at that position.

blumj
03-07-2012, 03:53 PM
I think the defensive rankings in this series are based on fan projections, and there are probably a lot of Red Sox fans among the fangraphs projectors. I think most of the Red Sox players are coming in a little too high in projected WAR as a result.

MikeThierry
03-07-2012, 04:11 PM
I think the defensive rankings in this series are based on fan projections, and there are probably a lot of Red Sox fans among the fangraphs projectors. I think most of the Red Sox players are coming in a little too high in projected WAR as a result.

Can you tell me who shot Kennedy from the grassy knoll? Fangraphs has probably the most accurate accumulation of numbers out there. For example, I trust their calculation on WAR over baseballreference because fangraphs includes other things in their WAR calculation that baseballreference doesn't. I don't think there are guys sitting in smoke filled rooms trying to screw over the numbers in fangraphs.

blumj
03-07-2012, 04:59 PM
Can you tell me who shot Kennedy from the grassy knoll? Fangraphs has probably the most accurate accumulation of numbers out there. For example, I trust their calculation on WAR over baseballreference because fangraphs includes other things in their WAR calculation that baseballreference doesn't. I don't think there are guys sitting in smoke filled rooms trying to screw over the numbers in fangraphs.

I don't either, this is from the intro to the series:


To help provide some realistic expectations, we're laying out the ZIPS projections for each player on the depth chart, and combining those with the expected fielding rating from the FAN's projections and our best estimates of the quantity of playing time that a player will get at a given position. From that, we're eyeballing a projected WAR for each player at that spot...

I don't know of any more scientific projections for fielding they could be using instead, it's just what they have, but Pedroia's projected at a 7 WAR, that's really high. And Ellsbury's projected at 7 WAR, too, and Youkilis at 5 with almost average fielding, they just seem a little high in that area. The only other 7 so far is Longoria, with Kinsler at 6.5, and those seem little on the high side, too.

MikeThierry
03-07-2012, 05:16 PM
Pedroia had an 8 WAR last season so I don't feel that a 7 WAR is off the mark, when healthy of course. Jacoby Ellsbury was also arguably one of the top 3 players in the AL last year. He had a 9.4 WAR last year. I would not be shocked to see him achieve a 7+ WAR this season. In total, I don't see their projections too far off based off of last years production. Boston just has a ton of great players.

jojo
03-07-2012, 06:18 PM
Can you tell me who shot Kennedy from the grassy knoll? Fangraphs has probably the most accurate accumulation of numbers out there. For example, I trust their calculation on WAR over baseballreference because fangraphs includes other things in their WAR calculation that baseballreference doesn't. I don't think there are guys sitting in smoke filled rooms trying to screw over the numbers in fangraphs.

OVer their careers, UZR suggests the differences between Phillips and Pedroia is a push. I'd be cautious about calling Pedroia a true talent +18 defender...that's rare territory.

MikeThierry
03-07-2012, 06:51 PM
OVer their careers, UZR suggests the differences between Phillips and Pedroia is a push. I'd be cautious about calling Pedroia a true talent +18 defender...that's rare territory.

I think part of their assessment includes offense as well. Pedroia is a better offensive secondbaseman right now in his career than Phillips is. Phillips is still very good but at the same time only Robinson Cano is probably a better hitter at 2nd than Pedroia is.