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puca
04-02-2012, 01:37 PM
Read on Twitter that Chappy will begin in the pen because Bray isn't quite ready to be the late inning lefty reliever.

I'm ok with it, as long as Chappy is in the major leagues.

I don't like the move at all. At some point the Reds will need a 6th starter - probably sooner rather than later. Starting him in the pen does not prepare him to start. My feeling is he still has work to do before he can be a sucessfuly major league starter. This year is looking like last year as far as Chapman is concerned. And if so he will be no more prepared to step into the starting rotation next year as he was this year.

I only hope that this decision was made because the Reds are convinced he will not be a ML starter - because any other reason is extremely short sighted.

puca
04-02-2012, 01:38 PM
The Chapman thing is so strange. Here's this guy they've invested so much money and effort into. And his spot on the team is dependent on what Bill Bray is up to? Bray is a nice player to have, but come on. It's a company not promoting someone to President because their janitor quit.

Yes, my feeling exactly.

Benihana
04-02-2012, 01:39 PM
The Chapman thing is so strange. Here's this guy they've invested so much money and effort into. And his spot on the team is dependent on what Bill Bray is up to? Bray is a nice player to have, but come on. It's a company not promoting someone to President because their janitor quit.

Agree with this. Oh well. Hopefully it's not permanent, and if this is the price for a Votto extension, I'll take it.

Superdude
04-02-2012, 01:42 PM
The Chapman thing is so strange. Here's this guy they've invested so much money and effort into. And his spot on the team is dependent on what Bill Bray is up to? Bray is a nice player to have, but come on. It's a company not promoting someone to President because their janitor quit.

I'm just hoping this is temporary. If Bill Bray's groin injury is the reason Chapman never gets a fair shake as a starter, then I just don't understand why we ever invested a dime in Chapman in the first place. I just can't seem to grasp their plan in this situation at all.

lollipopcurve
04-02-2012, 01:42 PM
Stupid move, IMO. It'll be monumentally stupid if they keep him there even when Bray is ready.

Kc61
04-02-2012, 01:43 PM
The Chapman thing is so strange. Here's this guy they've invested so much money and effort into. And his spot on the team is dependent on what Bill Bray is up to? Bray is a nice player to have, but come on. It's a company not promoting someone to President because their janitor quit.

I think it has more to do with the Madson injury than anything else.

The Reds found themselves with six major league caliber guys for the rotation. They also found themselves short in the pen, no Madson, termporarily no Masset. Bray iffy.

They devoted an awful lot of money and effort this off-season to have a winning team in 2012.

Reds were short in the bullpen and had enough starters. So what to do -- allow Chapman to pitch in Louisville? Or use him to fill the hole. I think it is reasonable that they chose to use him to fill the hole, at least for now.

They chose the 11 best pitchers they had to go to war with. Unfortunately, only five can start games. So for now, one starter goes to the pen.

I'm sure that later in the season there will be changes. Maybe more relievers acquired or promoted with Chappy getting a starting shot. But this is ok for right now.

And look at it this way -- the bullpen improved very substantially this morning. This move truly will help the Reds win more games this year.

Superdude
04-02-2012, 01:58 PM
They devoted an awful lot of money and effort this off-season to have a winning team in 2012.

It sounds like they're investing a lot of money to win beyond 2012. :D

RANDY IN INDY
04-02-2012, 01:59 PM
I think it has more to do with the Madson injury than anything else.

The Reds found themselves with six major league caliber guys for the rotation. They also found themselves short in the pen, no Madson, termporarily no Masset. Bray iffy.

They devoted an awful lot of money and effort this off-season to have a winning team in 2012.

Reds were short in the bullpen and had enough starters. So what to do -- allow Chapman to pitch in Louisville? Or use him to fill the hole. I think it is reasonable that they chose to use him to fill the hole, at least for now.

They chose the 11 best pitchers they had to go to war with. Unfortunately, only five can start games. So for now, one starter goes to the pen.

I'm sure that later in the season there will be changes. Maybe more relievers acquired or promoted with Chappy getting a starting shot. But this is ok for right now.

And look at it this way -- the bullpen improved very substantially this morning. This move truly will help the Reds win more games this year.

:thumbup:

HokieRed
04-02-2012, 01:59 PM
I think KC's got it when he says this move is dictated by the commitment they've made to winning this year. They paid up for Madson, sent their best talent to SD for Latos, paid fairly heavily for Marshall, and now know that an extension of Votto probably means this is the last year for BP. They are in full "this year" mode and that's what I believe is driving this decision. Personally I'd have Chapman starting in L'ville till he's comfortable with 6 inning starts and I'd just roll the dice with one of the L'ville relievers--Fisher or Smith or one of the others. Maybe even cut Harris and bring two of the relievers, keeping them on the shortest of strings--a batter or two if necessary.

Benihana
04-02-2012, 02:06 PM
I think KC's got it when he says this move is dictated by the commitment they've made to winning this year. They paid up for Madson, sent their best talent to SD for Latos, paid fairly heavily for Marshall, and now know that an extension of Votto probably means this is the last year for BP. They are in full "this year" mode and that's what I believe is driving this decision. Personally I'd have Chapman starting in L'ville till he's comfortable with 6 inning starts and I'd just roll the dice with one of the L'ville relievers--Fisher or Smith or one of the others. Maybe even cut Harris and bring two of the relievers, keeping them on the shortest of strings--a batter or two if necessary.

Agreed with the analysis and agreed with your plan.

Kc61
04-02-2012, 02:11 PM
I think KC's got it when he says this move is dictated by the commitment they've made to winning this year. They paid up for Madson, sent their best talent to SD for Latos, paid fairly heavily for Marshall, and now know that an extension of Votto probably means this is the last year for BP. They are in full "this year" mode and that's what I believe is driving this decision. Personally I'd have Chapman starting in L'ville till he's comfortable with 6 inning starts and I'd just roll the dice with one of the L'ville relievers--Fisher or Smith or one of the others. Maybe even cut Harris and bring two of the relievers, keeping them on the shortest of strings--a batter or two if necessary.

Frankly, as I've posted, it was always hard for me to believe that they would put Chapman in AAA, except for maybe a few weeks. He makes too much money and he's too good.

But it's a long season, as we all know, and who knows how the pitching will hold up. Chapman could wind up starting a lot of games, after a brief AAA stint, or maybe he is needed in the pen all year. Impossible to know.

Right now, though, I'm more excited about the Reds because of this move. With Madson out, I thought it was necessary to add one more good reliever and they have done that.

Let's hope Bailey is healthy, Latos is as advertised, Marshall can close games, and the team hits ok against RHP. And since Aroldis is in the pen, let's hope he is lights out there.

Degenerate39
04-02-2012, 02:17 PM
The guy who could be Ace of the staff in the bullpen. They better groom him into a closer

Caveat Emperor
04-02-2012, 02:52 PM
This was the correct move. Chapman isn't ready to be a starter, and the team is better off with him in the pen and Bailey in the rotation vs. Chapman in the rotation, a scrub in the bullpen and Bailey being traded off for prospects.

_Sir_Charles_
04-02-2012, 02:52 PM
I can handle Aroldis going back to the pen SHORT TERM. I can deal with him covering until Bray is fully ready and Masset is back. But once that happens, shuttle his rear-end off to Louisville and re-stretch him out for the remainder of the season.

HokieRed
04-02-2012, 02:58 PM
I can handle Aroldis going back to the pen SHORT TERM. I can deal with him covering until Bray is fully ready and Masset is back. But once that happens, shuttle his rear-end off to Louisville and re-stretch him out for the remainder of the season.

Agree, and I can't help but think that this is the plan--with the idea of getting him back and into the rotation in Cinti. as soon as possible.

RedEye
04-02-2012, 03:02 PM
I can handle Aroldis going back to the pen SHORT TERM. I can deal with him covering until Bray is fully ready and Masset is back. But once that happens, shuttle his rear-end off to Louisville and re-stretch him out for the remainder of the season.

Agreed. The Madson, Masset situation and the inability of Homer to pitch in the bullpen (takes too long to warm up) is what created this situation. If those things don't exist, I have a feeling we'd be seeing Chapman as the #5 starter.

Personally, I'd like to see both Homer and Chapman in the rotation with Arroyo back in the swing role he performed so effectively with the BoSox. I doubt I'm the only one, too.

kbrake
04-02-2012, 03:05 PM
I can handle Aroldis going back to the pen SHORT TERM. I can deal with him covering until Bray is fully ready and Masset is back. But once that happens, shuttle his rear-end off to Louisville and re-stretch him out for the remainder of the season.

Perfectly sums up my feelings on this situation.

lollipopcurve
04-02-2012, 03:45 PM
Personally, I'd like to see both Homer and Chapman in the rotation with Arroyo back in the swing role he performed so effectively with the BoSox. I doubt I'm the only one, too.

On board.

Cedric
04-02-2012, 04:51 PM
Agreed. The Madson, Masset situation and the inability of Homer to pitch in the bullpen (takes too long to warm up) is what created this situation. If those things don't exist, I have a feeling we'd be seeing Chapman as the #5 starter.

Personally, I'd like to see both Homer and Chapman in the rotation with Arroyo back in the swing role he performed so effectively with the BoSox. I doubt I'm the only one, too.
That is everyone's impossible dream. The economics and ego's involved make it impossible.

edabbs44
04-02-2012, 06:18 PM
Here we have a guy with ACE potential. He's throwing strikes, the Reds have praised his mechanics, and have talked about how he's learning to pitch now instead of just throwing. So what do they do? Stick him back in the bullpen where he can go back to just throwing the ball 105 mph. Genius move. I look forward to the day Dusty Baker is no longer manager of this club.

My guess is that Dusty wasn't the only one involved in that decision.

fearofpopvol1
04-02-2012, 06:35 PM
My guess is that Dusty wasn't the only one involved in that decision.

I have to agree. 25 man decisions are not the manager's alone. Walt and others have a huge say.

I think this is just bad luck for Chapman. Madson going down was 1 of the worst things to happen to Chapman. Not to mention that Bailey is out of options.

Either way, I think it's the wrong move. I think Chapman should be in the Louisville rotation for now.

AtomicDumpling
04-02-2012, 07:15 PM
Well this is what we all expected they would do. Most of us can see it is incredibly stupid though. The Reds have mishandled Chapman's development from day 1 or else he would likely be an ace starting pitcher by now. Now they want to delay his breakout even further for some incredibly lame reasons. Thank goodness the Votto news stole the headlines today or this decision would make the Reds the laughingstock of the league for awhile. They have already been ridiculed quite a bit in the press for it in recent days.

edabbs44
04-02-2012, 07:17 PM
Well this is what we all expected they would do. Most of us can see it is incredibly stupid though. The Reds have mishandled Chapman's development from day 1 or else he would likely be an ace starting pitcher by now. Now they want to delay his breakout even further for some incredibly lame reasons. Thank goodness the Votto news stole the headlines today or this decision would make the Reds the laughingstock of the league for awhile. They have already been ridiculed quite a bit in the press for it in recent days.

Can you link some of those articles? Would like to see their points of view.

Thx

REDblooded
04-02-2012, 09:56 PM
The Reds have got to be the worst ran organization in baseball. The way they have handled Chapman has been a flat out joke. If it had been up to the Reds, Pedro Martinez and Randy Johnson would have been Hall of Fame relievers.


It's a bit of an overemotional reaction, but it's not THAT far off...

They've absolutely BUTCHERED the handling of Chapman... When it was obvious they weren't headed to the playoffs last season, he should have IMMEDIATELY been stretched out. He wasn't. Now, he goes out and proves himself as much as possible this spring, and he's headed to the vortex of Dusty mishandling, the bullpen.

Just trade him please.

REDblooded
04-02-2012, 09:58 PM
And look at it this way -- the bullpen improved very substantially this morning. This move truly will help the Reds win more games this year.

And probably at the cost of having an ace in the rotation for the next 2.

REDblooded
04-02-2012, 10:05 PM
The value of a good young starter under control for 2+ seasons is Volquez, Grandal, and Alonso.

The value of having a good RP under control for 1 season is Travis Wood, Sappelt, and Torreyes.

The Reds are absolutely killing the value of Chapman... If it's in hopes of resigning him for cheap, ok. Meanwhile you're risking him never trusting you to resign no matter what happens in his final 2 due to the mishandling of his future for the past 3 seasons. So that's a wash at best.

757690
04-02-2012, 10:13 PM
It's a bit of an overemotional reaction, but it's not THAT far off...

They've absolutely BUTCHERED the handling of Chapman... When it was obvious they weren't headed to the playoffs last season, he should have IMMEDIATELY been stretched out. He wasn't. Now, he goes out and proves himself as much as possible this spring, and he's headed to the vortex of Dusty mishandling, the bullpen.

Just trade him please.

If Chapman stays in the pen all year, maybe you're right. But we don't know that.

We also don't know if this really will have a negative effect on his development as a starter, even if he stays in the pen all year. He seemeed be almost ready this spring, after virtually no time developing as a starter.

I'm against this move, but I don't think it definitely ruins Chapman.

757690
04-02-2012, 10:15 PM
The value of a good young starter under control for 2+ seasons is Volquez, Grandal, and Alonso.

The value of having a good RP under control for 1 season is Travis Wood, Sappelt, and Torreyes.

The Reds are absolutely killing the value of Chapman... If it's in hopes of resigning him for cheap, ok. Meanwhile you're risking him never trusting you to resign no matter what happens in his final 2 due to the mishandling of his future for the past 3 seasons. So that's a wash at best.

Latos is under control for four seasons, one of which is at close to league minimum. Marshall was under control for one season at around $3M. That was the biggest difference in value.

Will M
04-03-2012, 02:45 AM
if Chapman started in the rotation at some point he would end up back in the pen. he can't pitch 200 innings this year.

with the pen hurting to start the season i am fine with this move. if/when Bray & Masset are healthy THEN i'd like to see Chapman start. even then as the season winds down i bet he will hit his innings limit and go back to the pen (assuming the Reds are in contention)

Ron Madden
04-03-2012, 02:52 AM
Chapman can't just be written into the starting rotation and be expected to pitch 165 to 180 innings .. Young Pitchers need to work their way up to that..Every year they use him in relief is another year of development wasted.

puca
04-03-2012, 08:30 AM
if Chapman started in the rotation at some point he would end up back in the pen. he can't pitch 200 innings this year.

with the pen hurting to start the season i am fine with this move. if/when Bray & Masset are healthy THEN i'd like to see Chapman start. even then as the season winds down i bet he will hit his innings limit and go back to the pen (assuming the Reds are in contention)

We will see how it works out.

I don't see the Reds taking Chapman out of the bullpen unless a starter goes down and/or he is ineffective as a reliever. If it is a month or two into the season when a starter goes down they will have to go through the process of stretching him back out which will take time.

Not to mention he still doesn't have a third pitch and it is hard to imagine that he will have the opportunity to work on one while he is in the bullpen. Unless he is stretched out as a starter, develops a 3rd pitch and gets his innings count up to 160-180 this year he will not be able to step into the rotation full-time next year.

I also worry greatly about how his arm will react being called on to pitch (or even warmup) 3-4 days in a row - quite likely with him being the lefty setup man. Even with the move of Chapman to the pen, I really (REALLY) wish they had moved a righty as the closer and left Marshall in his setup role.

IslandRed
04-03-2012, 10:18 AM
I can handle Aroldis going back to the pen SHORT TERM. I can deal with him covering until Bray is fully ready and Masset is back. But once that happens, shuttle his rear-end off to Louisville and re-stretch him out for the remainder of the season.

I'm in with that philosophy. Even if we agree Chapman should start, he's obviously not ready to take the ball every fifth game all year. If they're going to have to limit his innings in some manner, a brief interlude in the bullpen at the beginning of the season when the pen needs the help is okay with me if it means we don't have to shut him down in the middle of a pennant race. We know how baseball works, a spot in the rotation will likely open up soon enough.

If he stays in the pen all year while others flounder in the rotation, then sure, I'm against that.

Benihana
04-03-2012, 11:19 AM
I'm in with that philosophy. Even if we agree Chapman should start, he's obviously not ready to take the ball every fifth game all year. If they're going to have to limit his innings in some manner, a brief interlude in the bullpen at the beginning of the season when the pen needs the help is okay with me if it means we don't have to shut him down in the middle of a pennant race. We know how baseball works, a spot in the rotation will likely open up soon enough.

If he stays in the pen all year while others flounder in the rotation, then sure, I'm against that.

Agree with this. Hopefully he'll be starting (either in Cincy or Louisville) by Memorial Day. If that is the case I am OK with the move. If he is in the bullpen all year, I am very much against it.

Has there been any speculation/reports by credible sources about the likelihood of Chapman's assignment to the bullpen being short-term temporary and him still starting at some point this year?

757690
04-03-2012, 12:29 PM
Agree with this. Hopefully he'll be starting (either in Cincy or Louisville) by Memorial Day. If that is the case I am OK with the move. If he is in the bullpen all year, I am very much against it.

Has there been any speculation/reports by credible sources about the likelihood of Chapman's assignment to the bullpen being short-term temporary and him still starting at some point this year?

While Dusty's quotes didn't outright say that, they did strongly imply it. Dusty said that Chapman is a starter and will be a starter, and the main reason he's a reliever now is because they don't think Bray is healthy enough right now to pitch important innings. No guarantee, but it sounds like Chapman will go back to starting, somewhere, once Bray and Masset are healthy.

Brutus
04-03-2012, 12:34 PM
To be honest, I like this move (if it's temporary).

We all know Chapman wasn't going to be able to pitch 200 innings this season. Thereby, since he's going to have to either pitch out of the pen or be shut down at some point, I'd rather they start him off in the pen and then put him in the rotation in a few weeks to they can have him in the rotation at the end of the year.

The Voice of IH
04-03-2012, 01:06 PM
I'm OK with Chapman in the bullpen now, but I wish he could pitch two or three innings in relief to get him ready for starting. I think that would be possible at times this season.

Benihana
04-03-2012, 01:08 PM
While Dusty's quotes didn't outright say that, they did strongly imply it. Dusty said that Chapman is a starter and will be a starter, and the main reason he's a reliever now is because they don't think Bray is healthy enough right now to pitch important innings. No guarantee, but it sounds like Chapman will go back to starting, somewhere, once Bray and Masset are healthy.

If this is indeed the case and Chapman is back starting again before the ASB (preferably by Memorial Day), I like the move.

REDREAD
04-03-2012, 01:23 PM
Bronson Arroyo has proven he is not a good pitcher. .

I think everyone agrees Bronson sucked last year.
But he was a good pitcher the rest of his career, IMO.
Maybe his performance was greater than his peripherals predicted, but he got the job done.

Now, I agree.. it's kind of a crapshoot on what production we will get from Arroyo this year, but I am optimistic. If nothing else, it's worthwhile to give Arroyo 4-6 weeks in the rotation instead of immediately banishing him to the pen on opening day.

_Sir_Charles_
04-03-2012, 01:30 PM
Agree with this. Hopefully he'll be starting (either in Cincy or Louisville) by Memorial Day. If that is the case I am OK with the move. If he is in the bullpen all year, I am very much against it.

Has there been any speculation/reports by credible sources about the likelihood of Chapman's assignment to the bullpen being short-term temporary and him still starting at some point this year?

The only thing I saw was a quote from Dusty saying....


The Chapman decision was difficult also.

“He’ can be one of our best starters or relievers — both,” Baker said. “It’s a situation where starting out early in the season your starters are lucky to go five, six innings. We needed to shore up our bullpen. The bullpen does at least a third to half the work.”
Baker made it clear Chapman’s future is as a starter.

“He’s going to be a starter, a very good starter,” Baker said. “He’s on board with with it. He anticipated it. He’s a smart kid. He said he thought as much because he lost (Nick) Masset and (Ryan) Madson. Billy Bray isn’t as sharp. He’s not a candidate to be a late-inning lefty guy.

“It was a process of elimination.”

REDREAD
04-03-2012, 01:32 PM
I think it has more to do with the Madson injury than anything else.

The Reds found themselves with six major league caliber guys for the rotation. They also found themselves short in the pen, no Madson, termporarily no Masset. Bray iffy. [snip]


Excellent analysis..
The world is not going to end if Chapman pitches out of the pen until the pen stablizes.
Also, he doesn't have to throw 105 out of the pen. At the end of last year, he pretty much stopped "airing it out".. I don't expect him to throw away everything he's learned in the past year just because he's back on the pen.

Guys, we have a good pitching coach. Let's trust him.. He's not an idiot.

If Homer struggles or gets hurt, there may be an opening for Chapman in the rotation before the end of the year.

REDREAD
04-03-2012, 01:37 PM
It's a bit of an overemotional reaction, but it's not THAT far off...

They've absolutely BUTCHERED the handling of Chapman... When it was obvious they weren't headed to the playoffs last season, he should have IMMEDIATELY been stretched out. He wasn't. Now, he goes out and proves himself as much as possible this spring, and he's headed to the vortex of Dusty mishandling, the bullpen.

Just trade him please.

IMO, this is overreacting.
The coaching staff was still teaching Chapman stuff last year.
His mechanics were seriously tweaked so he could have better control.
The coaches probably felt it was better for him to practice that out of the bullpen.

Calling the Reds laughing stocks for handling Chapman is going way overboard. The kid was super raw last year. I think everyone agrees that he's still not a finished product (although he has made progress).
What difference does it make if he works on his third pitch in Louisville or Cincy? Might as well use him to help the big league club.

Benihana
04-03-2012, 01:42 PM
I feel much better about the situation after seeing Dusty's quote. Let's just hope he can settle into his starter role by June.

Homer Bailey
04-11-2012, 04:51 PM
Fun with small sample sizes:

Chapman has a FIP of -0.80.

757690
04-11-2012, 04:53 PM
Fun with small sample sizes:

Chapman has a FIP of -0.80.

So he's underperforming his peripherals. I wonder what he's doing wrong? ;)

lollipopcurve
04-11-2012, 05:02 PM
So far, so great with Chapman. Keep him in multiple inning outings with an eventual transition to the rotation this year. Just do not (NOT!) want to see him put in reverse by Baker, back to old plug-and-play 8th inning setup role.

Kc61
04-11-2012, 06:02 PM
So far, so great with Chapman. Keep him in multiple inning outings with an eventual transition to the rotation this year. Just do not (NOT!) want to see him put in reverse by Baker, back to old plug-and-play 8th inning setup role.

I agree. I think it is very intentional that Dusty is using Aroldis for multiple innings. I won't be suprised to see him go three or four innings soon, in relief.

This approach has always made sense to me. Sending Aroldis to AAA and losing him as a Red for an extended period would really hurt the ballclub.

When Masset is back, if the team is going well, sending Chappy down to AAA for two or three starts might make sense. But the team needs him and I don't see him spending an extended period in Louisville this year.

wolfboy
04-11-2012, 06:20 PM
Fun with small sample sizes:

Chapman has a FIP of -0.80.

Awesome! :lol:

Brutus
04-11-2012, 10:23 PM
Fun with small sample sizes:

Chapman has a FIP of -0.80.

Can we apply the negative differential to the offense so it will be zero sum?

Homer Bailey
04-12-2012, 10:31 AM
Sorry, I miscalcualted. His FIP is -1.21.

RedsManRick
04-12-2012, 11:07 AM
Chapman is tied with Clayton Kershaw, Jon Lester and Tim Lincecum for the 14th most Ks in the majors.

fearofpopvol1
04-15-2012, 07:09 PM
I know it goes without saying, but he's looked amazing so far.

BCubb2003
04-15-2012, 07:15 PM
Hal McCoy said today that Chapman hasn't hit 100 mph yet this year. But I thought he did it at least once in his previous game. Is that right?

wheels
04-15-2012, 07:19 PM
Hal McCoy said today that Chapman hasn't hit 100 mph yet this year. But I thought he did it at least once in his previous game. Is that right?

I think Hal's wrong.

Superdude
04-15-2012, 07:24 PM
I know it goes without saying, but he's looked amazing so far.

What intrigues me so far is how untouchable his fastball has been. It seemed like every time his fastball dipped below 100 in the past, he was pretty hittable. This year he's throwing 96-99MPH and making major league hitters look like they were pulled out of a middle school scrimmage. I still think he's gonna have to be more comfortable with the slider if this success will translate to the rotation, but you've got to love watching him blow away hitters with a fastball that actually has a chance of being sustained for 7 innings.

dougdirt
04-15-2012, 07:25 PM
I think Hal's wrong.

http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/pitcher/547973/

Hal is wrong. There are at least two on there, though maybe 4-6 if we count rounding.

wheels
04-15-2012, 08:28 PM
http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/pitcher/547973/

Hal is wrong. There are at least two on there, though maybe 4-6 if we count rounding.

Thanks, kiddo. You always make with the good pitch fx data.

Kc61
04-15-2012, 09:25 PM
With the starters going pretty well, I don't expect to see Chapman converted to starter very soon. Even when Masset returns, which isn't imminent, I think Aroldis will stay in the pen pitching two, maybe sometimes three, innings stints.

At some point there will be an injury or slump by one of the starters and we may see Chapman get converted to starting then. But he is obviously a critical guy in the pen now, and I don't see a change being made real soon.

traderumor
04-15-2012, 09:33 PM
With the starters going pretty well, I don't expect to see Chapman converted to starter very soon. Even when Masset returns, which isn't imminent, I think Aroldis will stay in the pen pitching two, maybe sometimes three, innings stints.

At some point there will be an injury or slump by one of the starters and we may see Chapman get converted to starting then. But he is obviously a critical guy in the pen now, and I don't see a change being made real soon.The starters are going pretty well? Why is the bullpen overused after 10 games then?

dougdirt
04-15-2012, 09:39 PM
The starters are going pretty well? Why is the bullpen overused after 10 games then?

Pitch counts around 90 and 3 extra inning games would be a good starting point. Using Bill Bray for one pitch and only using Marshall in save situations would be another.

Going into today, the starters had a 3.91 ERA. Only 53 innings in 9 starts though, which is just under 6 innings per start. Give each guy an extra 10 pitches or so to work with moving forward and we will probably see an extra inning or so out of the starters.

traderumor
04-15-2012, 10:15 PM
Pitch counts around 90 and 3 extra inning games would be a good starting point. Using Bill Bray for one pitch and only using Marshall in save situations would be another.

Going into today, the starters had a 3.91 ERA. Only 53 innings in 9 starts though, which is just under 6 innings per start. Give each guy an extra 10 pitches or so to work with moving forward and we will probably see an extra inning or so out of the starters.Homer was over 100 yesterday to squeeze 6 laborious innings out of him. Latos had 94 after 5 innings Thursday. 5 innings. That is laboring as well. I just think it is an overstatement to say the rotation has been performing well when they can't get out of the 5th or 6th due to ineffectiveness or burning through their pitch count. The extra innings has only exacerbated the overuse.

Kc61
04-15-2012, 10:36 PM
Homer was over 100 yesterday to squeeze 6 laborious innings out of him. Latos had 94 after 5 innings Thursday. 5 innings. That is laboring as well. I just think it is an overstatement to say the rotation has been performing well when they can't get out of the 5th or 6th due to ineffectiveness or burning through their pitch count. The extra innings has only exacerbated the overuse.

My point, quite clearly, was that Chapman is not about to enter the rotation soon because, among other things, the rotation is going pretty well.

This response is that Homer and Latos have labored in their first outings.

Maybe. But I repeat, the rotation is going pretty well and Chapman is not about to be moved into the rotation from the bullpen. And Homer and Latos are going nowhere soon.

traderumor
04-15-2012, 10:56 PM
My point, quite clearly, was that Chapman is not about to enter the rotation soon because, among other things, the rotation is going pretty well.

This response is that Homer and Latos have labored in their first outings.

Maybe. But I repeat, the rotation is going pretty well and Chapman is not about to be moved into the rotation from the bullpen. And Homer and Latos are going nowhere soon.
Well, I got your point, just disagreed with your rotation assessment.

Obviously Latos is a lock, but let's not pretend that the rotation has been anything but barely average, with too short of stints. Its groundhog day of 2011. I'd like to see a change, and we have an in house upgrade in Chapman.

Homer is looking more and more like bullpen material. I'm not sure if the Reds would take that bold step, probably screw Leake on the "Homer can't get loose" excuse. But if they let him gas the FB/Slider for an inning or two, you probably have a much more productive reliever than starter.

Chapman needs to go into the rotation ASAP when Masset is back and ready to fill the back end of the pen. The rotation is still too shaky to not need an upgrade. Chapman is the most logical candidate.

The Operator
04-16-2012, 12:01 AM
Homer is looking more and more like bullpen material. I'm not sure if the Reds would take that bold step, probably screw Leake on the "Homer can't get loose" excuse. But if they let him gas the FB/Slider for an inning or two, you probably have a much more productive reliever than starter. Not sure how that'd necessarily be screwing Leake, he hasn't exactly looked superb yet either.

dougdirt
04-16-2012, 01:07 AM
Homer was over 100 yesterday to squeeze 6 laborious innings out of him. Latos had 94 after 5 innings Thursday. 5 innings. That is laboring as well. I just think it is an overstatement to say the rotation has been performing well when they can't get out of the 5th or 6th due to ineffectiveness or burning through their pitch count. The extra innings has only exacerbated the overuse.

A pitch count of 90 isn't set in concrete. 94 fits in well with the 90 pitch limit. Homer went to 100 because the bullpen was absolutely shot.

You are right, that some of these guys haven't gotten the job done even within their pitch limits. That doesn't help, but at this point in the season, normal pitch counts for guys probably saves the bullpen 4-5 innings to this point. That would leave it much less "taxed" because that is a few guys who don't have to throw on certain days.

RedlegJake
04-16-2012, 01:23 AM
I have the feeling the starters are doing pretty good. An ERA under 4 isn't bad for a team. They do have to get more efficient - I hope that comes as the season progresses - and soon. The pen is really being taxed but I'd rather have short stints with pretty good run control than short stints and being buried! So far the Reds starters haven't put the Reds in an untenable hole yet - IF the Reds had an offense worth spit and so far the O has been in a huge slump. I think that really hurts, too - when your team doesn't score for you it makes it harder to pitch loose. Pitchers start nibbling trying too hard to hold the other team. I really believe that teams in a hitting slump has an effect on their pitching efficiency. I wonder if there has been a study of that - pitch counts when a team is behind as opposed to when a team is ahead?

RANDY IN INDY
04-16-2012, 09:52 AM
I think you're right, Jake. Whenever the offense isn't scoring many runs, it definitely has an effect on the mindset of the certain pitchers. Just got to hope that the offense comes around soon and the pitchers can keep their end of the deal. Getting both at the same time would be nice for a change.

traderumor
04-16-2012, 09:57 AM
Not sure how that'd necessarily be screwing Leake, he hasn't exactly looked superb yet either.Because Leake has performed better in his two years in the rotation than Homer.

Kc61
04-16-2012, 10:18 AM
Nothing has happened in the starting rotation to warrant any change. Not every outing has been a masterpiece, but the rotation has been ok. Even Bailey, who had problems early in both games, came back and ended up decently.

Yes some of the guys threw a lot of pitches. So what, it happens all the times in games.

This is a tempest in a teapot. Chapman is needed in the pen. The Reds have five starters doing reasonably well. There is no need for a dramatic change, I don't see one happening, and the pitching is the least of the Reds' problems right now.

Chapman will become a starter eventually, but not soon absent some injury or other calamity.

Hoosier Red
04-16-2012, 10:49 AM
Well, I got your point, just disagreed with your rotation assessment.

Obviously Latos is a lock, but let's not pretend that the rotation has been anything but barely average, with too short of stints. Its groundhog day of 2011. I'd like to see a change, and we have an in house upgrade in Chapman.

Homer is looking more and more like bullpen material. I'm not sure if the Reds would take that bold step, probably screw Leake on the "Homer can't get loose" excuse. But if they let him gas the FB/Slider for an inning or two, you probably have a much more productive reliever than starter.

Chapman needs to go into the rotation ASAP when Masset is back and ready to fill the back end of the pen. The rotation is still too shaky to not need an upgrade. Chapman is the most logical candidate.

The problem is that the biggest complaint about the starters, too short of outings, is likely made worse by Chapman going to the rotation rather then alleviated.

dfs
04-16-2012, 11:41 AM
Chapman will become a starter eventually, but not soon absent some injury or other calamity.

How many more years do the reds control him? three after this year?

I believe that is what dictates the hue and cry to get him in the rotation. All winter long, he was bound for the rotation even if that meant spending half the year in Louisville. Come time for the umps to cry "play ball," and the organization seems to have lost its will and Chapman not only isn't in Louisville's starting rotation, he's in the reds bullpen.

This team could be 3-7 without Chapman in the bullpen and it wouldn't be the end of the world.

traderumor
04-16-2012, 11:48 AM
The problem is that the biggest complaint about the starters, too short of outings, is likely made worse by Chapman going to the rotation rather then alleviated.That would assume that Chapman will suddenly start using high pitch numbers to get results, which is not how he is performing currently.

I think it is fair to have reservations about Chapman, the wild thing act last season is still fresh in my mind also. However, the majority of his career to date has not been that performance level, but is closer to what he is doing now.

Wouldn't it be more logical to assume that what he is doing now will be what he is doing in the rotation--with the caveat that he still needs to get stretched out--but even that should be short term since he was successfully stretched out in spring training?

traderumor
04-16-2012, 11:51 AM
Nothing has happened in the starting rotation to warrant any change. Not every outing has been a masterpiece, but the rotation has been ok. Even Bailey, who had problems early in both games, came back and ended up decently.

Yes some of the guys threw a lot of pitches. So what, it happens all the times in games.

This is a tempest in a teapot. Chapman is needed in the pen. The Reds have five starters doing reasonably well. There is no need for a dramatic change, I don't see one happening, and the pitching is the least of the Reds' problems right now.

Chapman will become a starter eventually, but not soon absent some injury or other calamity.If you want to put him in a position where he can have the greatest impact, its the rotation. He has been integral in the bullpen, but Masset should be able to slide in that slot and Chapman can get it to the bullpen with the game in better shape than Homer or Leake.

Kc61
04-16-2012, 12:02 PM
If you want to put him in a position where he can have the greatest impact, its the rotation. He has been integral in the bullpen, but Masset should be able to slide in that slot and Chapman can get it to the bullpen with the game in better shape than Homer or Leake.

When the time comes for Chapman to start, the Reds will have to make other roster adjustments. They have five pretty good starters, each of whom has value. Reds aren't going to just dump one of them to accomodate Chapman, that would be a waste.

I expect Chapman to start when one of the current five is injured, traded, or mired in a slump.

I strongly disagree about Masset and think that many fans continue to underestimate the importance of a superior bullpen. Masset is not a superior reliever, he has good stuff but is prone to long slumps. (He was first rate in 2009, but that's awhile ago.)

Chapman will be a starter but it won't happen at the snap of a finger. There are other considerations -- like the current five guys and the effect of a non-Chapman, non-Madson bullpen.

Homer Bailey
04-16-2012, 12:13 PM
More fun with stats.

Aroldis Chapman is leading the majors (tied with Verlander) with a .7 WAR. In 10 games. As a relief pitcher. Let that sink in.

traderumor
04-16-2012, 12:30 PM
When the time comes for Chapman to start, the Reds will have to make other roster adjustments. They have five pretty good starters, each of whom has value. Reds aren't going to just dump one of them to accomodate Chapman, that would be a waste.

I expect Chapman to start when one of the current five is injured, traded, or mired in a slump.

I strongly disagree about Masset and think that many fans continue to underestimate the importance of a superior bullpen. Masset is not a superior reliever, he has good stuff but is prone to long slumps. (He was first rate in 2009, but that's awhile ago.)

Chapman will be a starter but it won't happen at the snap of a finger. There are other considerations -- like the current five guys and the effect of a non-Chapman, non-Madson bullpen.Send Simon down, move Leake or Bailey to the pen. voile.

I am not sold on Masset, it all depends on whether we get 2010 Masset or 2011 Masset. Most of it is approach. He nibbles more than the fish in a pond.

I don't think there is a lot of misunderstanding about the bullpen and its importance, but we're talking about maximizing existing resources. I could barb back that you seem to underestimate the importance of the starting rotation.

Hoosier Red
04-16-2012, 12:32 PM
That would assume that Chapman will suddenly start using high pitch numbers to get results, which is not how he is performing currently.

I think it is fair to have reservations about Chapman, the wild thing act last season is still fresh in my mind also. However, the majority of his career to date has not been that performance level, but is closer to what he is doing now.

Wouldn't it be more logical to assume that what he is doing now will be what he is doing in the rotation--with the caveat that he still needs to get stretched out--but even that should be short term since he was successfully stretched out in spring training?

I don't think it's quite as simple as transferring results from one over to the other. There's a different schedule and frankly a different mentality that comes with starting. That isn't to say he couldn't make the transition, I believe he could and he should. But if you put him in the rotation now, you basically are removing someone who has proven to go longer than Chapman out, removing someone from the bullpen who has relieved the stress on the rest of the relievers by taking multiple inning stints.

In the end that may be worth it, IF he transitions quickly to starting and can be counted on for no fewer than 5 innings per outing(hopefully even more) and IF the rest of the starting rotation increases their # of IP to at least 6 IP/start.