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Matt700wlw
03-08-2012, 07:15 PM
http://www.foxsportsohio.com/03/08/12/Chapman-back-in-pen-after-Bray-injury/landing_reds.html?blockID=682924&feedID=3725

TheNext44
03-08-2012, 07:30 PM
Baker has always wanted to waste Chapman in the bullpen. I doubt Walt will let that happen. Bray could be ready by opening day, and if not he will be close. Silly to get Chapman off his plan to be a starter just for a few weeks. Zavada should be able to fill in fine for a few weeks.

SirFelixCat
03-08-2012, 07:36 PM
Nothing to see here, imo. I just don't see the FO allowing Dusty to use him in the BP for a short-term tweak w/ Bray. He'll start (and stay until he has a spot in the rotation) in Louisville where he should, imo.

redsmetz
03-08-2012, 07:38 PM
Oh my goodness, Hal, stop the presses:

"We have Chapman, if we need him. That's a pretty good back-up plan," Baker said "And as it is, we have six starters, anyway (Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Bronson Arroyo, Mike Leake, Homer Bailey and Chapman). So, we'll see."

This is hardly earthshattering news and it certainly doesn't mean Dusty's hellbent on going against the agenda. If Chapman starts the season ready for some relief role while Bray mends, it doesn't mean it's that way all the season. Good heavens, these guys are just looking for anything.

Oy!

Phhhl
03-08-2012, 09:18 PM
I know he's always been a starter, but could this be a way to bring Jeff Francis North, use him out of the pen until Bray is ready and see where we are at then? Could buy us some more time on him, if nothing else. I am as concerned as anyone that Dusty is going to send Chapman back to the pen.

Kc61
03-08-2012, 09:33 PM
Keep in mind the Reds have Marshall as the short inning lefty reliever.

If Chapman pitches from the pen for a few weeks, he can pitch two and three inning stints in the middle to later innings.

This wouldn't derail Chapman as a starter at all. I always thought he might get "stretched out" pitching longer relief stints.

Some teams train future starting pitchers in the bullpen for awhile. It doesn't exclude Chapman as a starter later in the season.

Nasty_Boy
03-08-2012, 10:02 PM
^^^^ That's how they should have used Chapman last year. He should have been more than a one inning set up guy. I would have loved seeing him bridge the gap from the 6th-9th twice or three times a week as needed, instead of one inning the majority of the time.

I also hope they use Marshall in more than just a LOOGY or one inning role. I'd let him pitch the 7th and the 8th a time or two a week.

cincrazy
03-08-2012, 10:06 PM
Oh my goodness, Hal, stop the presses:

"We have Chapman, if we need him. That's a pretty good back-up plan," Baker said "And as it is, we have six starters, anyway (Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Bronson Arroyo, Mike Leake, Homer Bailey and Chapman). So, we'll see."

This is hardly earthshattering news and it certainly doesn't mean Dusty's hellbent on going against the agenda. If Chapman starts the season ready for some relief role while Bray mends, it doesn't mean it's that way all the season. Good heavens, these guys are just looking for anything.

Oy!

I don't think Hal was making anything up. Dusty said it, and Hal printed it. And it is spring after all, so you're right, he's definitely looking for things to print :). But clearly I think Dusty would prefer Chapman in the pen. I think it's an ongoing issue between him and management, and I find it interesting to hear Dusty's thoughts on the matter. There needs to be a concrete plan with Chapman, the club can't jerk him back and forth like the Yanks did Joba.

Tommyjohn25
03-08-2012, 10:33 PM
I don't mind Dusty as much as most here do. This persistence to keep Chapman in the pen is one thing that REALLY grinds my gears, however.

SunDeck
03-09-2012, 07:25 AM
My reading of the most recent article is that Walt is beginning to wonder whether Chapman will live up to his promise.


“I think there’s a lot of things we don’t understand about him,” Jocketty says. “I give him kind of a mulligan. On the other hand, he has been here long enough (he) has to start doing some things.”

Redhook
03-09-2012, 08:24 AM
I don't think Hal was making anything up. Dusty said it, and Hal printed it. And it is spring after all, so you're right, he's definitely looking for things to print :). But clearly I think Dusty would prefer Chapman in the pen. I think it's an ongoing issue between him and management, and I find it interesting to hear Dusty's thoughts on the matter. There needs to be a concrete plan with Chapman, the club can't jerk him back and forth like the Yanks did Joba.

Exactly.

Dusty's stubborness on this issue is irritating and ignorant. There's no reason why Chapman shouldn't be given every opportunity to become a starter, outside of the fact that it's Dusty's last year on his contract. If, after trying it for a season or so, it proves to be a failure then he could go back to the pen. I hope Walt stands his ground.

JaxRed
03-09-2012, 08:26 AM
Well he might be "doing things" if he was used as a starter the way he should be so he can get some innings under his built.

Put him in the starting rotation in AAA until he is ready.

CySeymour
03-09-2012, 09:48 AM
I don't mind Dusty as much as most here do. This persistence to keep Chapman in the pen is one thing that REALLY grinds my gears, however.

I actually place more of the blame on Walt then Dusty. Managers typically have more of a short term view of things. Walt's job is to take care of all aspects of the organization, player wise. He is the one who should have directed that Chapman be in Louisville last year starting.

Chip R
03-09-2012, 10:23 AM
I think winning that division in 2010 was the worst thing to happen to Chapman's development.

LoganBuck
03-09-2012, 10:35 AM
Maybe the plan is to limit his early season workload, so he has something left in the second half of the season. 150 innings is the most sunny prediction on his 2012 workload.

REDREAD
03-09-2012, 10:35 AM
I also hope they use Marshall in more than just a LOOGY or one inning role. I'd let him pitch the 7th and the 8th a time or two a week.

I would not worry about that. Dusty is going to trust Marshall, which means plenty of innings for him. I also think Bray will get significant work too, but Marshall will pitch more than Bray this year.

REDREAD
03-09-2012, 10:39 AM
I think winning that division in 2010 was the worst thing to happen to Chapman's development.

Not necessarily.
Chapman made great strides last year. The pitching coaches supposedly worked with him on getting more consistent control, and results were clearly seen.

I guess he could've pitched some of those innings as a starter in Lou instead of out of the pen, but I think it was a good learning experience for him.

Like others have said, plenty of starting pitchers have started off in the pen, with no ill effects.

I really not worried about stretching out Chapman. He was a starter in Cuba not too long ago.
That's a lot different than taking someone like Danny Graves and suddenly making him a starter.

Chip R
03-09-2012, 11:28 AM
Not necessarily.
Chapman made great strides last year. The pitching coaches supposedly worked with him on getting more consistent control, and results were clearly seen.

I guess he could've pitched some of those innings as a starter in Lou instead of out of the pen, but I think it was a good learning experience for him.

Like others have said, plenty of starting pitchers have started off in the pen, with no ill effects.

I really not worried about stretching out Chapman. He was a starter in Cuba not too long ago.
That's a lot different than taking someone like Danny Graves and suddenly making him a starter.

I think that they wanted to make him a starter and as soon as the big league team started doing well - along with him not setting the world on fire as a starter in LOU - they figured they could better use him out of the pen in Cincinnati so they scuttled the starting experiment and made him a reliever. When you have a 105 MPH fastball and a good slider and you can control both pitches, you can be an effective short reliever in the majors and that's what happened. Then last year they decided to not screw around with success and with the loss of Rhodes, Chapman was the perfect lefty to replace him. Then he lost his control and it kind of went to hell.

I do agree about stretching him out though. I wish they would stop babying him.

OnBaseMachine
03-09-2012, 11:29 AM
Moving Chapman back to the bullpen without giving him a chance to start would be ignorant. I'm so tired of Dusty Baker.

REDREAD
03-09-2012, 11:33 AM
I Then last year they decided to not screw around with success and with the loss of Rhodes, Chapman was the perfect lefty to replace him. Then he lost his control and it kind of went to hell.
.

Yea, I agree with what you say. I guess I just don't consider last season as a lost year as some posters do. I think he progressed as a pitcher. I also think if he was a starter the entire last season in AAA, he would still be a work in progress.

dunner13
03-09-2012, 11:39 AM
This is just speculation but I think there are some issues with Chapman, possibly his attitude or the way hes adjusting to living in the USA or something and its causing the reds front office to think that Chapman may not be able to handle starting. Lets be honest Walt isn't an idiot, the front office is full of baseball people making a lot of money if they thought Chapman could be the next Randy Johnson (as they did when they signed him) then he would be a lock for the rotation so if there considering using him in the bullpen there must be some pretty good reasons that we don't know about.

WildcatFan
03-09-2012, 11:48 AM
Walt's quote makes me think this is Chapman's last chance to prove he's a starter. I think he'll be in Louisville until the All-Star Break, at which point the FO will make the final decision. If he shows he belongs in the rotation, he comes up and another starter gets traded (probably Arroyo and cash for a bag of balls, possibly Bailey for something more significant). If he isn't an effective starter there, Walt ends the experiment and he comes up to the pen and stays there for the rest of his time as a Red, maybe battling Marshall for the closer role. I doubt Dusty has much say in that call.

SunDeck
03-09-2012, 01:17 PM
It also occurs to me that developing Chapman has got to be difficult because of all the issues related to his past. He just moved to another planet, not another country. And he left his child behind, along with his family and girlfriend. Obviously, the Reds knew that going in, but it has to change the nature of working with him. Language barrier aside, the guy's got a lot of things to think about that your average hot shot fire balling kid from Texas wouldn't.

I'd create some stability and tell him now he's in AAA until the All Star break. If he can force the issue, then great.

Vottomatic
03-09-2012, 01:50 PM
Typical Dusty Baker. Enuff said.

Will M
03-09-2012, 02:21 PM
Chapman in the pen helps the Reds win NOW. It seems to me that Dusty has always had the mentality that he wants to win now. Every game. Thats ok.
In fact to me it seems a good quality in the manager.

What the organization needs is balance. If everyone was like Dusty that would not be good. However if there were no Dustys that also would not be good. If we have some folks who want to win now & some folks who want to make sure we win in the future thats good. Then discussions happen with pros & cons and a decision is made that seems best for the organization.

NJReds
03-09-2012, 02:33 PM
Not that it means anything about his future, but Chapman is starting one of the split squad games today.

RANDY IN INDY
03-09-2012, 02:34 PM
I see Chapman, with the ability to be a premier, shut-down closer. I don't think he will ever bring the consistency with multiple pitches to be a premier starter or the ability to withstand the rigors of throwing a lot of pitches on a regular basis. Long term, I think his best interests are as a reliever. That's just my opinion.

bucksfan2
03-09-2012, 02:53 PM
Moving Chapman back to the bullpen without giving him a chance to start would be ignorant. I'm so tired of Dusty Baker.

Holy overreaction batman!

Gotta love spring training. A blurb from a beat writer sends fans into a tizzy.

JaxRed
03-09-2012, 03:02 PM
NM.... hit wrong button

OnBaseMachine
03-09-2012, 04:02 PM
Holy overreaction batman!


Funny, I was thinking the same thing about this post.

RANDY IN INDY
03-09-2012, 04:11 PM
Nm

cincrazy
03-09-2012, 04:30 PM
If the Reds can't find success with Chapman as a starter, they need to trade him. A team in a market like Cincinnati can't afford a $30 million contract for a set-up reliever. Find someone to take his salary, and to take the risk that he presents, and get something useful back for him. Before this whole plan goes to hell, the Reds are left with something that isn't much of an asset to other teams, while also paying him tons of money. Give him this year to transition to start. If he makes strides, keep him. If he doesn't, or backtracks, find him a new home at the deadline. Several teams would take a chance on him now. But next year? The season after? Hard to tell.

NJReds
03-09-2012, 04:43 PM
Chapman today against SF ... 2 IP, 0H, 0 BB, 2 K. Reds batting top 3 in a 0-0 game.

redsmetz
03-09-2012, 05:12 PM
If the Reds can't find success with Chapman as a starter, they need to trade him. A team in a market like Cincinnati can't afford a $30 million contract for a set-up reliever. Find someone to take his salary, and to take the risk that he presents, and get something useful back for him. Before this whole plan goes to hell, the Reds are left with something that isn't much of an asset to other teams, while also paying him tons of money. Give him this year to transition to start. If he makes strides, keep him. If he doesn't, or backtracks, find him a new home at the deadline. Several teams would take a chance on him now. But next year? The season after? Hard to tell.

I don't necessarily disagree with your sentiment, I don't think we're at that point where we know whether the Reds believe he can't be a starter. I think, as someone noted, that McCoy quoted Dusty, but I don't think Dusty was saying anything more than the fact that Chapman can fill Bray's role temporarily while Bray is not ready. Others here have noted that if we're going to be bringing Chapman along lengthening his innings in a game, then that can work early on. I think this is really much ado about nothing at the moment.

bucksfan2
03-09-2012, 05:13 PM
Funny, I was thinking the same thing about this post.

The problem I have with calling the Reds ignorant is that it isn't applicable. The Reds have their lefty specalist dealing with a groin injury who may not be ready for Opening Day. They really don't have another lefty specalist in the system but have maybe their best arm in the organization who has had success working out of the pen. What do you expect a manager who is in a win or get fired situation to say? Were the Rangers ignorant when they moved Feliz to the pen last year?

From all indications the Reds plan on using Chapman as a starter. Its up to the GM to see that through. Any manager in his right mind is going to want Chapman on the team, in the pen this year because the won't crack the starting rotation.

WildcatFan
03-09-2012, 05:16 PM
If the Reds can't find success with Chapman as a starter, they need to trade him. A team in a market like Cincinnati can't afford a $30 million contract for a set-up reliever.

In fairness, he's getting paid $3.5m this year and next and $4.25m in 2014. That seems reasonable for a good setup man. It's less than what Marshall makes.

paulrichjr
03-09-2012, 05:28 PM
In fairness, he's getting paid $3.5m this year and next and $4.25m in 2014. That seems reasonable for a good setup man. It's less than what Marshall makes.

Also in fairness the Reds didn't give him a big bonus for signing. The salary this year in and going forward was negotiated to give him more each year to avoid paying millions in a large signing bonus.

RedsManRick
03-09-2012, 06:19 PM
There is absolutely no evidence that the organization as a whole is thinking of shifting him back. That was just Dusty pointing out that they have the option to do that. I'm 99% sure that where Chapman starts the season and in what role is not really Dusty's decision.

Roy Tucker
03-09-2012, 06:46 PM
There is absolutely no evidence that the organization as a whole is thinking of shifting him back. That was just Dusty pointing out that they have the option to do that. I'm 99% sure that where Chapman starts the season and in what role is not really Dusty's decision.

I sure hope so.

I feel like these last 2 seasons with the Reds trying to figure out what to do with Chapman is like watching my wife try to pick out what color dress to wear. All I ask is to make a decision and stick with. Plan the plan and then work the plan.

bucksfan2
03-12-2012, 10:22 AM
I sure hope so.

I feel like these last 2 seasons with the Reds trying to figure out what to do with Chapman is like watching my wife try to pick out what color dress to wear. All I ask is to make a decision and stick with. Plan the plan and then work the plan.

I don't really have a problem with the way they handled him. I think they did the right thing by starting him in AAA and moving him to the pen late in the season his first year with the Reds. Last year I don't really have a problem with him staying in the pen for the entire season. In hindsight I wish they would have sent him to AAA to be a stater, but heading into 2011 they had playoff aspirations, and Chapman as a reliever is better than no Chpaman.

I don't get the whole "going to the pen is perminent" thing. Many starters started their career in the pen only to move to the rotation as they progressed. Chapman is an interesting case because of is arm and his heritage, but I don't have a huge issue with the way the Reds have handled him. And to be honest he really hasn't banged down the door and made the Reds start him.

Kc61
03-12-2012, 10:55 AM
Here's the one point that everyone must remember - the Reds are paying Chapman too much money for him to spend lengthy periods at AAA from here on out.

I'm sure they would like him to start games and they probably will send him down for a while to get stretched out. But by mid-June 2012, I expect Chapman to be in the majors in some role.

They are not going to have him throw the full year for Louisville and eat up precious time and money on this contract in the minor leagues. Not at these prices.

If one of the Reds starters faulters, Chapman will be in the rotation by mid-season 2012. If not, then he will be in the Reds bullpen by mid-season. I believe that his particular role is almost a secondary consideration - the Reds will use him in the majors in some way, this season.

Of course, if he pitches very poorly in the minors, that would change the equation. Reds don't need any pitcher doing badly in any role.

RANDY IN INDY
03-12-2012, 11:35 AM
Here's the one point that everyone must remember - the Reds are paying Chapman too much money for him to spend lengthy periods at AAA from here on out.

I'm sure they would like him to start games and they probably will send him down for a while to get stretched out. But by mid-June 2012, I expect Chapman to be in the majors in some role.

They are not going to have him throw the full year for Louisville and eat up precious time and money on this contract in the minor leagues. Not at these prices.

If one of the Reds starters faulters, Chapman will be in the rotation by mid-season 2012. If not, then he will be in the Reds bullpen by mid-season. I believe that his particular role is almost a secondary consideration - the Reds will use him in the majors in some way, this season.

Of course, if he pitches very poorly in the minors, that would change the equation. Reds don't need any pitcher doing badly in any role.

:beerme:

757690
03-12-2012, 12:12 PM
Here's the one point that everyone must remember - the Reds are paying Chapman too much money for him to spend lengthy periods at AAA from here on out.

I'm sure they would like him to start games and they probably will send him down for a while to get stretched out. But by mid-June 2012, I expect Chapman to be in the majors in some role.

They are not going to have him throw the full year for Louisville and eat up precious time and money on this contract in the minor leagues. Not at these prices.

If one of the Reds starters faulters, Chapman will be in the rotation by mid-season 2012. If not, then he will be in the Reds bullpen by mid-season. I believe that his particular role is almost a secondary consideration - the Reds will use him in the majors in some way, this season.

Of course, if he pitches very poorly in the minors, that would change the equation. Reds don't need any pitcher doing badly in any role.

Sunk cost theory of economics disagrees with you on this. If the Reds are smart, they will use Chapman in whatever role provides the most overall production for the team long term, regardless of his contract. And that role clearly is as a starter, even if it means Chapman spending the whole 2012 season in AAA.

And one thing everyone forgets... Chapman demonstrated that he is of very limited use as a reliever since he can't go back to back days. Getting him ready to do so would require just as much time in AAA as getting him ready to be a starter.

REDREAD
03-12-2012, 02:09 PM
If the Reds can't find success with Chapman as a starter, they need to trade him. A team in a market like Cincinnati can't afford a $30 million contract for a set-up reliever. .

Not sure I agree with that. Marshall is making roughly 5 million/year, and I think it is 6 million/year if he closes.
I think that's pretty close to what Chapman's contract averaged out at.

If they let Madson walk after this season, potentially Chapman and Marshall could cover the late innings together.

Kc61
03-12-2012, 02:13 PM
Sunk cost theory of economics disagrees with you on this. If the Reds are smart, they will use Chapman in whatever role provides the most overall production for the team long term, regardless of his contract. And that role clearly is as a starter, even if it means Chapman spending the whole 2012 season in AAA.

And one thing everyone forgets... Chapman demonstrated that he is of very limited use as a reliever since he can't go back to back days. Getting him ready to do so would require just as much time in AAA as getting him ready to be a starter.

I don't think the Reds would apply the sunk cost theory of economics to a pitcher as good as Chapman. If someone isn't productive at all, you cut your losses and eat the cost. In the case of Chapman, he is eminently usable, the question is what role.

Except for his bout with wildness for a stretch last season, he was effective out of the bullpen, even if he didn't pitch every day. If by mid-season Chapman isn't ready to start - or if there is no opening for him to start - I think you will see him in the pen in some role.

There is something to be said for having the 12 best, reasonably experienced arms on the major league team. If the Reds are contending, they won't sit around waiting for Chapman to develop for the rotation in future years. They will use him in whatever spot is available.

Let's take a hypothetical situation - let's say the Reds are contending by mid-season but two of their relievers are struggling with 6 plus ERAs. And let's say Chappy is doing well in the AAA rotation. Don't you think they would call on him to fill a bullpen spot to try and win the division?

edabbs44
03-12-2012, 02:18 PM
There is absolutely no evidence that the organization as a whole is thinking of shifting him back. That was just Dusty pointing out that they have the option to do that. I'm 99% sure that where Chapman starts the season and in what role is not really Dusty's decision.

Agree, any decision being made on Chapman is that of the entire organization, not just Dusty.

cincinnati chili
03-13-2012, 07:05 AM
Maybe before we start talking about sunk costs and what a failure Chapman has been, we should let him have at least one bad year at the major league level. He was dominant in the big leagues in both of the last 2 years.

Does anyone know how his velocity is coming in spring training. I know his stat line has been very good albeit in a very small sample size. I'm less concerned about all the walks over the last couple years. Nolan Ryan walked a lot of guys too. I'm concerned that his average fastball dropped a full 2 miles per hour in one year.

traderumor
03-13-2012, 11:05 AM
Maybe before we start talking about sunk costs and what a failure Chapman has been, we should let him have at least one bad year at the major league level. He was dominant in the big leagues in both of the last 2 years.

Does anyone know how his velocity is coming in spring training. I know his stat line has been very good albeit in a very small sample size. I'm less concerned about all the walks over the last couple years. Nolan Ryan walked a lot of guys too. I'm concerned that his average fastball dropped a full 2 miles per hour in one year.On "Reds Live" last night, Walt claimed he was sitting in the 95-98 range, but it was a pacing thing more than lost velocity.

REDREAD
03-13-2012, 12:48 PM
. I'm concerned that his average fastball dropped a full 2 miles per hour in one year.

That velocity loss seemed to coincide with the Reds refining his mechanics for better control though. I guess I am not worried about it. (Not saying you are).

I also agree that calling Chapman a failure is kind of absurd.

If he continues to pitch out of the pen as he's been doing or if he even becomes a solid #3 starter, he's more than earned the money the Reds have paid him.
Some folks seem disappointed that he hasn't had a 200 IP/200 K season yet..

Kc61
03-13-2012, 03:48 PM
Some folks seem to think that a pitcher is a waste unless he turns out to be Roy Halliday.

Chapman may wind up as a TOR starter. Or he may wind up as a third or fourth starter. Or he may wind up as a closer. Or a set up man.

He can help the Reds -- a lot -- in any of these capacities. When his control is right, Chapman has great stuff and misses bats.

It won't be a tragedy if he ends up in the pen, or in the middle of the rotation. He can still be effective and very helpful to this team.

RANDY IN INDY
03-13-2012, 03:52 PM
I tend to agree with KC61. The only thing that bothers me about the Chapman situation is that the Reds brass has not had a clear plan for the development of Aroldis Chapman.

IslandRed
03-13-2012, 04:04 PM
I think they had a plan originally, but events sometimes overtake plans. I have no problem with what they did in 2010. Moving him to the bullpen after starting for awhile served two purposes: keeping his innings down, and keeping him mentally on track. The daily discipline of coming to the park ready to pitch was good for him, what with the post-defection culture shock tossed with money and fame. It was a happy bonus that he was able to contribute to an actual pennant race too.

Last year, I know why they did what they did but hindsight makes it easy to second-guess.

RedlegJake
03-13-2012, 04:15 PM
I find it incredible that anyone can call Chapman a failure. In fact, I think it brings to question their real knowledge of baseball if they do. He's performed very well at the tasks set before him to this point - it is hardly his fault he has been mishandled as to his development (in my opinion) and is just now getting back to a logical career path. My beef is with the Reds organizational thinking on Chapman - had they developed him the way I think was correct he'd be in spring training either a) seriously battling for a rotation spot after prepping by starting in the minors the last 2 years - or - b) having failed to harness his fastball and add a another quality pitch, he'd be cast in a bullpen spot with clear vision as to his future role. Either way, he'd almost certainly be of much greater value to the team than he is right now.

Kc61
03-13-2012, 04:23 PM
I find it incredible that anyone can call Chapman a failure. In fact, I think it brings to question their real knowledge of baseball if they do. He's performed very well at the tasks set before him to this point - it is hardly his fault he has been mishandled as to his development (in my opinion) and is just now getting back to a logical career path. My beef is with the Reds organizational thinking on Chapman - had they developed him the way I think was correct he'd be in spring training either a) seriously battling for a rotation spot after prepping by starting in the minors the last 2 years - or - b) having failed to harness his fastball and add a another quality pitch, he'd be cast in a bullpen spot with clear vision as to his future role. Either way, he'd almost certainly be of much greater value to the team than he is right now.

I don't think that "development" is always such a linear process. Sometimes exposure to major league hitters - in any role - is the best way to develop a pitcher. Then decide if he is a reliever or starter.

Also, you have to consider the Reds' position. They don't have a lot of expensive players. It probably would have been difficult for them to let Aroldis toil at AAA all last year developing as a starter.

In any event, I agree with you -- he isn't a failure, he has done well as a set up man mostly, and he now has the possibility of starting. The future will tell the tale of this pitcher, not his brief past history in the majors.

To quote the old adage, as long as he has his health. . . .

RANDY IN INDY
03-13-2012, 05:25 PM
Not a failure in any way. Still a tremendous natural talent.

11larkin11
03-14-2012, 06:02 PM
Pitched 3 innings today. Sure seems like a lot for a reliever, Chicken Little.

Kc61
03-14-2012, 11:22 PM
The way Bailey has been pitching, Chapman may have a rotation spot waiting for him.

RedsManRick
03-15-2012, 12:40 AM
Pitched 3 innings today. Sure seems like a lot for a reliever, Chicken Little.

And zero walks; that made me happy.

cincrazy
03-15-2012, 12:51 AM
Just to clarify my comments about potentially moving Chapman: I don't think he's been a failure. Or a bust. Or anything of the sort. He's a good major league pitcher. But he has "star" potential. The way I see it, if we don't feel he's going to become a "star," trade him to a team currently that may feel he could become one. Good relievers grow on trees. I don't lose any sleep if we lose a setup man.

Obviously, if we lose an ace and top of the rotation workhorse, things would be much different. He deserves every shot at succeeding this year. But I don't think trading him would be deeming him a "failure." If trading him can shore up other areas, we should consider it, just as we should with any other player. And Chapman is MUCH more of an unknown than most other players.

OnBaseMachine
03-15-2012, 12:59 AM
Chapman has been no where near a failure or a bust. In fact, he's been quite successful (63.1 IP, 3.27 ERA, 2.88 FIP, 12.79 K/9). I just wish the Reds had made him a starter sooner. He's way too talented to be wasted in the bullpen, IMO. They need to commit to him being a starter and be patient. It would be a huge mistake to shift him back to the pen without giving him a fair chance at starting, IMO.

WVPacman
03-15-2012, 01:22 AM
Why back to the bp,is he doing that bad this spring?

757690
03-15-2012, 01:30 AM
The way Bailey has been pitching, Chapman may have a rotation spot waiting for him.

I predict Bailey starts the season on the DL, as usual. I'm hoping they go with Francis as the 5th starter and let Chapman develop in AAA, but I could see Chapman winning the spot. Either way, if Bailey is hurt, all the more reason to keep Chapman as a starter.

mth123
03-15-2012, 06:19 AM
I don't think we can draw any conclusons at all right now. Chapman has dialed it back and his control has seemingly improved. That's great. Still need to see how it plays a second and third time through the order. Need to see how his velocity holds-up into the 6th and 7th inning. Need to see how deep he can go into games or whether he only goes five before reaching the 100 pitch mark and burns up the bullpen like Volquez did. Most of the starters have been awful, (though Bailey was pretty good before last night) but nothing means much right now. These guys have basically been throwing like relievers with 5 days rest so far. Next time through the rotation these guys should be ready to go 5 innings and a lot of the High A and AA players will be gone. It will be a better reading but still a pretty small sample.

I'm still a believer in Bailey's ability, but I'm still suspicious of that shoulder. That's a big factor. I agree with 757690 about Francis and would put him ahead of Chapman for any open job. If everyone is healthy, I'd say Francis (if he'll stay) and Chapman should start out in the AAA rotation. If Bray is hurt, I'd give Francis that spot (unless Zavada wins that spot) and keep Chapman starting in AAA. If a starter goes down (but Bray is healthy), I'd give Francis the open rotation spot. If a starter and Bray start on the DL, I'd give Chapman a shot in the rotation and make Francis the long reliever.

RedsManRick
03-15-2012, 10:12 AM
Chapman has been no where near a failure or a bust. In fact, he's been quite successful (63.1 IP, 3.27 ERA, 2.88 FIP, 12.79 K/9). I just wish the Reds had made him a starter sooner. He's way too talented to be wasted in the bullpen, IMO. They need to commit to him being a starter and be patient. It would be a huge mistake to shift him back to the pen without giving him a fair chance at starting, IMO.

Right. But if we end up thinking he's the next Sean Marshall and another team thinks he's still the next Randy Johnson, it makes sense to trade him. I think we all want to see him succeed as a starter. But in the event he doesn't...

Kc61
03-15-2012, 10:19 AM
Homer Bailey is losing me. The guy just doesn't perform on the mound. There's always some problem. So far, Homer is all hype, no results.

He's having a miserable spring so far.

Chapman has had bouts of wildness, but overall is a far more effective pitcher.

The Bailey spot in this rotation should be in play. If Chapman continues to out pitch him, I'd put Chapman in the rotation. I would keep Homer around for mop up duty until he shows me something better, or until I can trade him.

Benihana
03-15-2012, 10:58 AM
If everyone is healthy, I'd say Francis (if he'll stay) and Chapman should start out in the AAA rotation. If Bray is hurt, I'd give Francis that spot (unless Zavada wins that spot) and keep Chapman starting in AAA. If a starter goes down (but Bray is healthy), I'd give Francis the open rotation spot. If a starter and Bray start on the DL, I'd give Chapman a shot in the rotation and make Francis the long reliever.

Agree with this. I want Chapman to be a starter all year. If it really doesn't work, we can reevaluate for 2013.

RedsManRick
03-15-2012, 11:54 AM
Homer Bailey is losing me. The guy just doesn't perform on the mound. There's always some problem. So far, Homer is all hype, no results.

He's having a miserable spring so far.

Chapman has had bouts of wildness, but overall is a far more effective pitcher.

The Bailey spot in this rotation should be in play. If Chapman continues to out pitch him, I'd put Chapman in the rotation. I would keep Homer around for mop up duty until he shows me something better, or until I can trade him.

The key words here are "so far". It's the first two weeks of Spring Training. Joey Votto is hitting .286/.333/.357. Phillips has a .579 OPS. Jose Arredondo has a 9:1 K/BB and yet has a 9 ERA. Roy Halladay has a 10.57 ERA.

I have no problem if you think Bailey's rotation spot should be up for grabs. We know Arroyo's isn't and you can definitely make the case that the other 3 guys have out-pitched him. But to arrive at any such conclusion on the basis of 7 spring training innings is silly. It's just confirmation bias. Sure, a 2/5 ratio is cause for keeping an eye on him. But it's much too insignificant an amount of innings to mean anything from a statistical standpoint. If you've got a bit of scouting insight that suggests these struggles will continue, I'm all ears -- but I've not heard anything along those lines.

The funny thing is that Bailey has actually been consistently improving the last few years. Sure, he could be better. He could be more consistent. But in a general sense, he actually does perform when he's on the mound; his big problem has been staying on the mound. Don't get me wrong, I think Chapan has a higher ceiling than anybody in the organization and that if he's ready to be a major league starter, he should be given a spot. I just don't think you can make a case for Bailey losing his spot on the basis of poor performance.

bucksfan2
03-15-2012, 12:18 PM
Spring training is about getting ready for the seasons and staying healthy. Too often I think people get overy excited of disappointed in a particular player. There have been ST heroes in the past, posting a 0.00 ERA only to explode when the season starts.

Unless there is a spot up for grabs, I really don't care what a given player does in March.

RedsManRick
03-15-2012, 03:07 PM
Spring training is about getting ready for the seasons and staying healthy. Too often I think people get overy excited of disappointed in a particular player. There have been ST heroes in the past, posting a 0.00 ERA only to explode when the season starts.

Unless there is a spot up for grabs, I really don't care what a given player does in March.

Bailey had a similar start to ST last year: http://www.redszone.com/forums/archive/index.php/t-88109.html

As for other false positives, Josias Manzinillo in 2003 comes to mind.

mth123
03-15-2012, 09:17 PM
Roy Halladay, 3 Starts, 7.2 IP, 10.57 ERA,
Steven Strasburg, 3 Starts, 9.2 IP, 7.45 ERA.
Tim Lincecum, 3 Starts, 8 IP, 6.45 ERA.
Ian Kennedy, 2 Starts, 4.1 IP, 10.38 ERA.
Justin Masterson, 3 Starts, 8.1 IP, 7.56 ERA.
Jared Weaver, 2 Starts, 3.2 IP, 7.36 ERA.
Jeremy Hellickson, 3 Appearances, 7 IP, 9.00 ERA.

Crumbley
03-15-2012, 09:38 PM
The key words here are "so far". It's the first two weeks of Spring Training. Joey Votto is hitting .286/.333/.357. Phillips has a .579 OPS. Jose Arredondo has a 9:1 K/BB and yet has a 9 ERA. Roy Halladay has a 10.57 ERA.
All of those guys have track records of success. Homer has Baseball America rankings from half a decade ago.

TheNext44
03-15-2012, 10:50 PM
I'm less worried about Bailey's stats, and more about his health. He was getting behind, walking guys and bouncing his curveballs in his last start. That usually is a sign of something wrong physically, which is effecting his mechanics. I hope it's not, but comsidering his past, it's got me worried.

dougdirt
03-15-2012, 11:05 PM
All of those guys have track records of success. Homer has Baseball America rankings from half a decade ago.

Homer Bailey has a track record too. It might not be what you think it should be, but let's not pretend that he has been a poor pitcher recently. He hasn't been. He has been fairly average. And that isn't a bad thing.

Spitball
03-15-2012, 11:18 PM
Spring training numbers have to be viewed like any fairly small sample size. Dave Sappelt batted over .500 in about 60 at bats last spring. He obviously is not a .500 hitter. Obviously, no one is. Sappelt's minor league numbers are a much better indicator than last year's spring numbers.

I think we get so anxious for baseball after so many months away that we over value spring numbers.

dougdirt
03-15-2012, 11:27 PM
I think we get so anxious for baseball after so many months away that we over value spring numbers.

Pretty much.

The numbers I pay attention to in spring training are as follows:

Trips to the DL
Gains in velocity
Losses in velocity

That is about it. In some cases I will look at specific cases for certain things. Like Andrew Brackman and his walk rate given his history and the talk all winter of him curing his control issues.

RedsManRick
03-16-2012, 01:18 AM
All of those guys have track records of success. Homer has Baseball America rankings from half a decade ago.

Homer Bailey has a track record. One of continuous improvement in his early and mid 20's. Last year, at age 25, he threw 132 innings with a 3.2 K/BB. Let's look at the other guys in MLB who did that. (Age 25 or younger, 130+ IP, 3.0 K/BB or greater)


Rk Player IP SO/BB HR/9 ERA FIP xFIP ERA+ BAbip
1 Clayton Kershaw 233.1 4.6 0.6 2.28 2.47 2.84 163 .274
2 Madison Bumgarner 204.2 4.2 0.5 3.21 2.67 3.10 111 .329
3 Felix Hernandez 233.2 3.3 0.7 3.47 3.13 3.15 111 .308
4 Brandon Beachy 141.2 3.7 1.0 3.68 3.19 3.16 103 .312
5 Yovani Gallardo 207.1 3.5 1.2 3.52 3.59 3.19 111 .296
6 Jonathon Niese 157.1 3.1 0.8 4.40 3.36 3.28 84 .344
7 Tommy Hanson 130.0 3.1 1.2 3.60 3.67 3.29 105 .271
8 Jaime Garcia 194.2 3.1 0.7 3.56 3.23 3.31 102 .324
9 David Price 224.1 3.5 0.9 3.49 3.32 3.32 107 .282
10 Michael Pineda 171.0 3.2 1.0 3.74 3.42 3.53 103 .261
11 Mike Leake 167.2 3.1 1.2 3.86 4.22 3.68 101 .272
12 Homer Bailey 132.0 3.2 1.2 4.43 4.06 3.77 88 .299
13 Jordan Zimmermann 161.1 4.0 0.7 3.18 3.16 3.78 122 .296
14 Daniel Hudson 222.0 3.4 0.7 3.49 3.28 3.79 113 .298
15 Josh Collmenter 154.1 3.6 1.0 3.38 3.80 4.18 117 .260

Now, I'm as frustrated as anybody that he's had trouble staying healthy and I hope to see the home run rate come down to a bit, but that's awfully good company. Sure, Homer hasn't yet become the guy we all hoped he'd become. But the constant hating on him around here is pure glass-is-half-empty pessimism.

Kc61
03-16-2012, 02:27 PM
Sometimes I read these posts and I wonder if 2+2=5.

Anyone who doesn't see Bailey as a disappointment isn't watching. Even Rick's chart above shows him to be inferior to almost every other pitcher on the list in most statistical categories.

Bailey has talent and is still reasonably young and I haven't given up on him. But it's time for him to show up on the mound. He is nearing the stage where he can be categorized as a guy who may "have better luck somewhere else."

The notion that Bailey is in "awfully good company" implies that he has performed as well as the others on that last. He hasn't.

Kc61
03-16-2012, 02:35 PM
Homer Bailey has a track record too. It might not be what you think it should be, but let's not pretend that he has been a poor pitcher recently. He hasn't been. He has been fairly average. And that isn't a bad thing.

Yes it is a bad thing. You don't win divisions with a pitcher who misses a lot of time and, when he pitches, is "fairly average."

Bailey may be a success in counting how many prospects make the major leagues.

In terms of being a solid member of a winning rotation, he hasn't succeeded.

Right now, unless Bailey shows something early in this season, I'm giving Chapman his rotation spot. In a heartbeat.

wolfboy
03-16-2012, 02:36 PM
The notion that Bailey is in "awfully good company" implies that he has performed as well as the others on that last. He hasn't.

He didn't imply that at all.


Sure, Homer hasn't yet become the guy we all hoped he'd become.

dougdirt
03-16-2012, 02:40 PM
Yes it is a bad thing. You don't win divisions with a pitcher who misses a lot of time and, when he pitches, is "fairly average."
This is incredibly false and you know it. Nearly every playoff team has average or fairly average pitchers on their staff and nearly every single one of them misses plenty of starts from their rotation.

Kc61
03-16-2012, 02:42 PM
He didn't imply that at all.

I don't know how else to interpret the phrase "awfully good company" in referring to Bailey, but to me the implication is that Bailey compares with this group. He doesn't.

Let's be real here. Different people like to cherry pick different stats, and I'm no exception. But the main point to me is that Bailey should not automatically get a rotation spot based on past performance. He doesn't have the past performance.

Give him a pass for the previous years. Give him a pass for this spring. At some point, what you have is a lot of passes.

dougdirt
03-16-2012, 02:50 PM
I don't know how else to interpret the phrase "awfully good company" in referring to Bailey, but to me the implication is that Bailey compares with this group. He doesn't.

Let's be real here. Different people like to cherry pick different stats, and I'm no exception. But the main point to me is that Bailey should not automatically get a rotation spot based on past performance. He doesn't have the past performance.

Give him a pass for the previous years. Give him a pass for this spring. At some point, what you have is a lot of passes.


There is a difference in cherry picking stats and looking at stats that matter when looking for future performance. Bailey misses bats. Bailey has now found himself with a good walk rate. Bailey has a good K/BB rate. Those things are all good indicators of success. Sure, his ERA hasn't been all that shiny. But past ERA isn't a good predictor of future ERA.

When I look at past performance when trying to find who is going to have good future performance, I want guys who miss bats and keep walks in check. Bailey fits that description very well.

Kc61
03-16-2012, 02:52 PM
This is incredibly false and you know it. Nearly every playoff team has average or fairly average pitchers on their staff and nearly every single one of them misses plenty of starts from their rotation.

Incredibly false is kind of strong language.

I guess the issue is what your objectives are for a pitcher.

Is Bailey good enough to fill out some rotations on pretty good teams? Absolutely. No question about it.

Is Bailey good enough to be a number 3 starter in a good rotation? I would argue he isn't based on his performance so far in his career.

If your objective is for Homer to eat innings at the back end of the rotation then, yes, you are correct, he is as good as other pitchers and can do so.

If your objective is for Homer to be a solid rotation member on a good staff, then I think he has to improve.

I always give a guy a little slack pitching in GABP. But I'd like to see Homer with a 4.00 ERA this year and a 100 ERA+ or even slightly better. This requires improvement.

dougdirt
03-16-2012, 02:53 PM
I always give a guy a little slack pitching in GABP. But I'd like to see Homer with a 4.00 ERA this year and a 100 ERA+ or even slightly better. This requires improvement.

See, I don't really think it requires any actual improvement from his side of things. I think it requires a few things to "even out" for him. Every one of his peripherals suggests he is the kind of pitcher you think he needs to improve to be (actually a little better than what you have marked for him).

Kc61
03-16-2012, 02:56 PM
There is a difference in cherry picking stats and looking at stats that matter when looking for future performance. Bailey misses bats. Bailey has now found himself with a good walk rate. Bailey has a good K/BB rate. Those things are all good indicators of success. Sure, his ERA hasn't been all that shiny. But past ERA isn't a good predictor of future ERA.

When I look at past performance when trying to find who is going to have good future performance, I want guys who miss bats and keep walks in check. Bailey fits that description very well.

When Bailey converts his bat missing ability into successful, consistent pitching, then I'll be satisfied. I'm all for good indicators, but I'd prefer success.

So far, with Bailey, I've seen a guy who has trouble getting through 7 innings without a bad stretch. You can miss bats all you want, but if you allow four runs in the third inning, it doesn't help.

Again, he's still pretty young. But the issues I see go beyond missing bats. It's the ability to put together 7 good innings in a game.

Crumbley
03-16-2012, 05:57 PM
Let's see those peripherals equal production.

dougdirt
03-16-2012, 06:23 PM
Let's see those peripherals equal production.

What do you define as production?

Crumbley
03-16-2012, 07:09 PM
What do you define as production?
Being around for something resembling a full season. Not being jaw droppingly mediocre.
ERA+ by year

81
56
93
91
88

Lots of things "should" work, or it is at least logically sound to believe they will. Most of Homer's value is still theoretical. He'll be 26 in a couple of months.

dougdirt
03-16-2012, 07:15 PM
Being around for something resembling a full season. Not being jaw droppingly mediocre.
ERA+ by year

81
56
93
91
88

Lots of things "should" work, or it is at least logically sound to believe they will. Most of Homer's value is still theoretical. He'll be 26 in a couple of months.

So, a 105 ERA+ and 190 innings?

Crumbley
03-16-2012, 08:16 PM
So, a 105 ERA+ and 190 innings?
Sounds about right.

RedsManRick
03-16-2012, 11:21 PM
Sometimes I read these posts and I wonder if 2+2=5.

Anyone who doesn't see Bailey as a disappointment isn't watching. Even Rick's chart above shows him to be inferior to almost every other pitcher on the list in most statistical categories.

Bailey has talent and is still reasonably young and I haven't given up on him. But it's time for him to show up on the mound. He is nearing the stage where he can be categorized as a guy who may "have better luck somewhere else."

The notion that Bailey is in "awfully good company" implies that he has performed as well as the others on that last. He hasn't.

I think that you and the others don't see much of a difference between "has fallen short of our very high expectations" and "is a bust who isn't helping the team win". Just because he's underwhelmed our hopes and dreams for him doesn't mean we should be thinking about shipping him out.

If he was a 4th round draft pick who was never heralded a potential ace, people would be taking a much, much different view of him. But that past is completely irrelevant to how we should value him moving forward.

Guys who fit on that list AT ALL are very talented and valuable. The "ace or bust" approach is going to leave you disappointed in virtually every single player we develop. Your argument, as far as I can tell, is that because he's not as good as David Price or Yovani Gallardo (despite being touted as having the potential to be), we should be ready to show him the door. I disagree. If he's just a cheap, young solid #4 starter, I'm not going to scoff at the value that provides. And the reality is that he's a. just 26, b. showing continuous improvement, and c. clearly has upside remaining.

People are acting like he's a guy who just isn't getting any better and isn't likely to be any good for us and that's simply not true. I think it's an assessment based almost entirely on ERA, which is influenced by a number of things beyond a pitcher's control and which, in Homer's case, has hidden some very real improvement. If you accept the idea that ERA is not a great predictor of future performance (most notably as compared to K/BB), then you see Bailey's progress. If you're focused on ERA, you don't. I think that most of this conversation revolves around that simple point. I'd just direct people to the threads last year about whether or not we should have targeted James Shields.

Kc61
03-17-2012, 01:07 AM
I think that you and the others don't see much of a difference between "has fallen short of our very high expectations" and "is a bust who isn't helping the team win". Just because he's underwhelmed our hopes and dreams for him doesn't mean we should be thinking about shipping him out.

If he was a 4th round draft pick who was never heralded a potential ace, people would be taking a much, much different view of him. But that past is completely irrelevant to how we should value him moving forward.

Guys who fit on that list AT ALL are very talented and valuable. The "ace or bust" approach is going to leave you disappointed in virtually every single player we develop. Your argument, as far as I can tell, is that because he's not as good as David Price or Yovani Gallardo (despite being touted as having the potential to be), we should be ready to show him the door. I disagree. If he's just a cheap, young solid #4 starter, I'm not going to scoff at the value that provides. And the reality is that he's a. just 26, b. showing continuous improvement, and c. clearly has upside remaining.

People are acting like he's a guy who just isn't getting any better and isn't likely to be any good for us and that's simply not true. I think it's an assessment based almost entirely on ERA, which is influenced by a number of things beyond a pitcher's control and which, in Homer's case, has hidden some very real improvement. If you accept the idea that ERA is not a great predictor of future performance (most notably as compared to K/BB), then you see Bailey's progress. If you're focused on ERA, you don't. I think that most of this conversation revolves around that simple point. I'd just direct people to the threads last year about whether or not we should have targeted James Shields.

Just as you think Bailey's ERA (and ERA+) is a poor predictor of future outcomes, I disagree that his K rate and BB rate are necessarily good indicators in his case.

Bailey melts down in games. His overall K rate means nothing to me if he pitches 7 innings, fans 7 guys, but gets tagged for four runs in the third inning with one more tacked on thereafter.

Unlike many of you, I can't accurately predict how a pitcher will do going forward. I see past history. I see current performance. I admit that spring training doesn't tell us much, but it's not exactly inspiring to see Bailey batted around like a tee this spring.

He has youth and talent on his side. But so far Chapman has showed me much more and if one or the other has to stay, right now, I'm not voting Bailey unless things improve real soon.

Tony Cloninger
03-17-2012, 11:01 AM
I think that you and the others don't see much of a difference between "has fallen short of our very high expectations" and "is a bust who isn't helping the team win". Just because he's underwhelmed our hopes and dreams for him doesn't mean we should be thinking about shipping him out.

If he was a 4th round draft pick who was never heralded a potential ace, people would be taking a much, much different view of him. But that past is completely irrelevant to how we should value him moving forward.

Guys who fit on that list AT ALL are very talented and valuable. The "ace or bust" approach is going to leave you disappointed in virtually every single player we develop. Your argument, as far as I can tell, is that because he's not as good as David Price or Yovani Gallardo (despite being touted as having the potential to be), we should be ready to show him the door. I disagree. If he's just a cheap, young solid #4 starter, I'm not going to scoff at the value that provides. And the reality is that he's a. just 26, b. showing continuous improvement, and c. clearly has upside remaining.

People are acting like he's a guy who just isn't getting any better and isn't likely to be any good for us and that's simply not true. I think it's an assessment based almost entirely on ERA, which is influenced by a number of things beyond a pitcher's control and which, in Homer's case, has hidden some very real improvement. If you accept the idea that ERA is not a great predictor of future performance (most notably as compared to K/BB), then you see Bailey's progress. If you're focused on ERA, you don't. I think that most of this conversation revolves around that simple point. I'd just direct people to the threads last year about whether or not we should have targeted James Shields.


I do not even think he has pitched as well as Jack Armstrong did.....YET....... and that is pretty failed to me.

traderumor
03-17-2012, 11:13 AM
Just as you think Bailey's ERA (and ERA+) is a poor predictor of future outcomes, I disagree that his K rate and BB rate are necessarily good indicators in his case.

Bailey melts down in games. His overall K rate means nothing to me if he pitches 7 innings, fans 7 guys, but gets tagged for four runs in the third inning with one more tacked on thereafter.

Unlike many of you, I can't accurately predict how a pitcher will do going forward. I see past history. I see current performance. I admit that spring training doesn't tell us much, but it's not exactly inspiring to see Bailey batted around like a tee this spring.

He has youth and talent on his side. But so far Chapman has showed me much more and if one or the other has to stay, right now, I'm not voting Bailey unless things improve real soon.We don't have current performance. ST means NOTHING. You have past history to work with, and it has been demonstrated repeatedly on this board that there are some indicators that have proven reliable in predicting future performance. Just like any prognostications, they are not 100% accurate, but since there are only a few teams that can buy themselves out of projection risk, the Reds have to bear some of that risk to stay competitive in this business.

The disappointing thing about your position is that one side of the argument has brought verifiable facts to the table, you've brought an unquantified "meltdown theory" for your projections. If I was in a decision making meeting, I'd politely ask for you to provide data to support your position and then turn to the decision makers who brought some tangible arguments to the table. Of course, there are some decision makers who listen to that stuff, thankfully. That kind of stuff was instrumental in Mat Latos being available, for example, as we get our "head case" for some prospect magic beans.

As for Bailey, I think this is his make or break season with the Reds. He either takes a step forward, or he'll get replaced by someone the Reds project to be a better pitcher.

traderumor
03-17-2012, 11:20 AM
I think that you and the others don't see much of a difference between "has fallen short of our very high expectations" and "is a bust who isn't helping the team win". Just because he's underwhelmed our hopes and dreams for him doesn't mean we should be thinking about shipping him out.

If he was a 4th round draft pick who was never heralded a potential ace, people would be taking a much, much different view of him. But that past is completely irrelevant to how we should value him moving forward.

Guys who fit on that list AT ALL are very talented and valuable. The "ace or bust" approach is going to leave you disappointed in virtually every single player we develop. Your argument, as far as I can tell, is that because he's not as good as David Price or Yovani Gallardo (despite being touted as having the potential to be), we should be ready to show him the door. I disagree. If he's just a cheap, young solid #4 starter, I'm not going to scoff at the value that provides. And the reality is that he's a. just 26, b. showing continuous improvement, and c. clearly has upside remaining.

People are acting like he's a guy who just isn't getting any better and isn't likely to be any good for us and that's simply not true. I think it's an assessment based almost entirely on ERA, which is influenced by a number of things beyond a pitcher's control and which, in Homer's case, has hidden some very real improvement. If you accept the idea that ERA is not a great predictor of future performance (most notably as compared to K/BB), then you see Bailey's progress. If you're focused on ERA, you don't. I think that most of this conversation revolves around that simple point. I'd just direct people to the threads last year about whether or not we should have targeted James Shields.

Some other things to consider: the Reds actually developed a HS pitcher and have gotten quality major league innings out of him. After Howington, Gruler, et al, that's a success story for the organization. I agree that his draft status has placed unrealistic expectations on Bailey. I'd guess he is in the middle of the pack compared to similar draft picks in the recent history of the draft.

RedsManRick
03-17-2012, 01:34 PM
Just as you think Bailey's ERA (and ERA+) is a poor predictor of future outcomes, I disagree that his K rate and BB rate are necessarily good indicators in his case.

Bailey melts down in games. His overall K rate means nothing to me if he pitches 7 innings, fans 7 guys, but gets tagged for four runs in the third inning with one more tacked on thereafter.

Unlike many of you, I can't accurately predict how a pitcher will do going forward. I see past history. I see current performance. I admit that spring training doesn't tell us much, but it's not exactly inspiring to see Bailey batted around like a tee this spring.

He has youth and talent on his side. But so far Chapman has showed me much more and if one or the other has to stay, right now, I'm not voting Bailey unless things improve real soon.

I'm actually very familiar with this line of argumentation. Stats are irrelevant except when they confirm what your eyes tell you. It's cool -- I get it.

gilpdawg
03-17-2012, 01:37 PM
I do not even think he has pitched as well as Jack Armstrong did.....YET....... and that is pretty failed to me.

That's a little much. Armstrong was never really good. He just had one half season where he outperformed his peripherals to the extreme.

757690
03-17-2012, 04:04 PM
I'm actually very familiar with this line of argumentation. Stats are irrelevant except when they confirm what your eyes tell you. It's cool -- I get it.

Anyone and everyone can use stats to make decisions. It's like knowing the odds when playing poker. I admire the saber community for all the progress they have done in helping us know what the true odds are.

However, the winning GM's, like the winning poker players, are the ones that know when to bluff, and know when others are bluffing. They know when certain players will either out or under perform their projections. And like with poker, this ability is a mixture of guts and experience.

It's not the stats are irrelevant except when they confirm what my eyes see, it's that sometimes what my eyes see is more relevant than what the stats say, and what separates a great GM from a good GM, is knowing when that happens.

Kc61
03-17-2012, 04:22 PM
The disappointing thing about your position is that one side of the argument has brought verifiable facts to the table, you've brought an unquantified "meltdown theory" for your projections. If I was in a decision making meeting, I'd politely ask for you to provide data to support your position and then turn to the decision makers who brought some tangible arguments to the table. Of course, there are some decision makers who listen to that stuff, thankfully. That kind of stuff was instrumental in Mat Latos being available, for example, as we get our "head case" for some prospect magic beans.

As for Bailey, I think this is his make or break season with the Reds. He either takes a step forward, or he'll get replaced by someone the Reds project to be a better pitcher.

Pretty funny. I'M THE ONE WITHOUT FACTS?

Bailey has a lifetime 4.89 ERA, a lifetime 85 ERA+, a lifetime 1.45 WHIP. In his last three seasons - supposedly his "full" seasons - he has averaged about 20 games a year with an all time high last year of 132 innings.

Bailey has never had an ERA below 4.40 in the major leagues, he's never had an ERA+ above 93.

And, frankly, Bailey wasn't all that great in the minor leagues either. He had some good years and some bad, but was not a dominating minor league pitcher.

Fangraphs has Bailey as a 1.5 WAR pitcher last year. The top of the scale was 8.2. Jaime Garcia was 3.6. Jonathan Niese was 2.7. Bud Norris was 1.8.

I'm sure I will now be told that MY stats aren't good enought, that K rate tells the whole story. I don't agree, but Bailey's 7.2 Ks per nine innings last year is good, but not great, and doesn't necessarily translate into a winning pitcher.

I do agree with one thing I've read here. Bailey's 11.05 ERA this spring doesn't mean too much.

RedsManRick
03-17-2012, 04:32 PM
Pretty funny. I'M THE ONE WITHOUT FACTS?

Bailey has a lifetime 4.89 ERA, a lifetime 85 ERA+, a lifetime 1.45 WHIP. In his last three seasons - supposedly his "full" seasons - he has averaged about 20 games a year with an all time high last year of 132 innings.

Bailey has never had an ERA below 4.40 in the major leagues, he's never had an ERA+ above 93.

And, frankly, Bailey wasn't all that great in the minor leagues either. He had some good years and some bad, but was not a dominating minor league pitcher.

I'm sure I will now be told that MY stats aren't good enought, that K rate tells the whole story. I don't agree, but Bailey's 7.2 Ks per nine innings last year is good, but not great, and doesn't necessarily translate into a winning pitcher.

I do agree with one thing I've read here. Bailey's 11.05 ERA this spring doesn't mean too much.

I'd love to see the list of pitchers with a 3+ K/BB that you wouldn't want in your rotation.

Kc61
03-17-2012, 05:08 PM
I'd love to see the list of pitchers with a 3+ K/BB that you wouldn't want in your rotation.

If Homer ever were to pitch a full game, he'd need to get 27 outs. On average, he will fan 7. He needs to find a way to consistently get the other outs.

See, you guys view Homer as a "miss bats" type pitcher. But a 7.2 K rate just isn't that good. He isn't the dominant strikeout pitcher you guys see.

Some guys get those outs with grounders, like Leake. Some have a great feel for pitching and know how to get weakly hit grounders. Like a Maddox type.

Bailey IMO is a power pitcher with only modest power. He needs to do a better job missing bats or compensate in some way. Now is his chance.

IslandRed
03-17-2012, 05:17 PM
This is one where I kind of sit on the fence. I follow the notion of using component indicators versus actual ERA to predict future ERA. However, as I've mentioned before, the underlying assumption behind all component-based metrics is this: The timing of all events is completely random. That is often true, maybe usually true, but I don't believe it's always true. I just think some guys have a knack for minimizing damage and others have a knack for staying in trouble once they get there, or throwing the wrong pitch to the wrong guy at the wrong time. Perhaps it's a mental thing, or something as simple as having poor command pitching out of the stretch. Many of those guys never reach the major leagues in the first place, but if a guy has enough talent he can get there even with those flaws -- and then never quite gets the actual results the component-based predictors would suggest.

I'm not saying Bailey is doomed to be one of those guys, but when a pitcher's actual run-allowing performance is worse than his FIP/xFIP in every season he's touched the major leagues, eventually "bad luck" stops being a good enough answer. This is where the data that supplements eyeballs comes in very handy, e.g. Pitch f/X. Drill down deeper and maybe the club can uncover the why. If it really is just bad luck, then great. If it's a systemic problem, maybe it's fixable. If it isn't fixable, maybe he's tradeable.

RedsManRick
03-17-2012, 06:55 PM
If Homer ever were to pitch a full game, he'd need to get 27 outs. On average, he will fan 7. He needs to find a way to consistently get the other outs.

See, you guys view Homer as a "miss bats" type pitcher. But a 7.2 K rate just isn't that good. He isn't the dominant strikeout pitcher you guys see.

Some guys get those outs with grounders, like Leake. Some have a great feel for pitching and know how to get weakly hit grounders. Like a Maddox type.

Bailey IMO is a power pitcher with only modest power. He needs to do a better job missing bats or compensate in some way. Now is his chance.

(Note, I was in the process of making some thorough edits when Kc61 responded to me (with quote) below. Edits were not in response, just me clarifying myself.)

Sigh... I honestly don't know why I even try. You win. Homer has sucked, does suck and will continue to suck. His strikeouts don't count as much (not really). His walks count more (nope, not true). He doesn't know how to get ground balls (despite allowing more grounders than flyballs) and he's not one of the best pitchers in the history of the game (like 99.5% of all other major league pitchers). He should be traded immediately for the nearest back of balls.

I do not view homer as a "dominant", "miss bats" type guy; I'd appreciate it if you'd argue against my actual words & points and not ones you make up for me. I view him as a 26 years old with a K/BB ratio (the two things that, by far, pitchers have the most control over) who has shown improvement over the last 3 years for whom the systems that best predict ERA peg at the 4.00 to 4.20 range.

I know he's been a disappointment; I grant that the injury problems are a concern and that he's allowed his fair share of hard contact. I'm completely on the same page with what IR just laid out. Timing isn't completely random; nor is BABIP. But Bailey's LOB% is just a touch below league average) -- if he had a big problem with blow-ups, why does he strand an average number of guys? I think the "he falls apart" narrative is mostly confirmation bias built around a narrative that formed early on when the Reds called up way before he was ready and he got rocked. Reality is that pitchers generally allow runs in bunches and they tend to do so towards the end of their outings -- that's just how it works.

It should also be noted that ground balls are more likely to be hits than fly balls. The whole "weak contract" thing has merit, but it's not about ground balls. The guys who sustain the lowest BABIPs are fly ball pitchers like Matt Cain who induce a lot pop-ups. Obviously GABP punishes fly ball pitchers via a higher HR/FB, making GB guys more valuable here. But GB maven Mike Leake was just as HR-prone as Bailey last year -- both allowed 1.23 HR/9, so it's not like that's the secret sauce Homer is missing. SIERA, a FIP like stat that adjusts for batted ball types had Bailey at 3.78 last year.

I admit this is not the full story. We could talk about his fastball lacking tail (it's straighter than average) or his increasing use of the slider and two-seamer. But if we're going to go the analysis route, let's at least look at the data in the appropriate light.

I'll let this rest. I don't anticipate I'm going to change your mind and I'm certain that your ERA-based statistical arguments and comparisons to other pitchers who you wish he was instead aren't going to change mine. We'll have to just see what happens over the next 6+ months.

Kc61
03-17-2012, 07:06 PM
Sigh... I honestly don't know why I even try. You win. Homer has sucked, does suck and will continue to suck. His strikeouts don't count as much (not really). His walks count more (nope, not true). He doesn't know how to get ground balls (despite allowing more grounders than flyballs) and he's not one of the best pitchers in the history of the game (like 99.5% of all other major league pitchers). He should be traded immediately for the nearest back of balls.

Listen, Homer is not an ace. He probably won't ever be one. He's a guy who is 26 years old, has shown improvement and who puts up peripherals on par with a solid #3/4 type pitcher. His K/BB ratio is excellent. Almost every single projection system, systems built on massive amounts of knowledge and analysis about how the game works, project him for an ERA in the 4.00 to 4.20 range.

Now, I happen to think that a 4.00 to 4.20 ERA from a 26 year old who has the upside to do much better than that is not something we should view as a guy who should be cast off and treated like a failure. I know he's been a disappointment; I grant that the injury problems are a concern and he's allowed his fair share of hard contact. I just think you are so stuck on the idea of him as a failure that you're blinded to the positives.

I'll let this rest. I don't anticipate you're going to change your mind and I'm certain your ERA based statistical arguments, assertions related to weak contact and comparisons to all-time greats are going to change mine. We'll have to just see what happens over the next 6+ months.

I think you mischaracterize a lot of my arguments but agree it's not worth more verbiage. My goal for the Reds is to be a contender. I want to see positive contributions from the rotation. If Bailey does indeed have a 4.00 to 4.20 ERA pitching most of a full season, it would suffice for me, particularly at GABP. While it's not fantastic, I hope he progresses that far in 2012.

RedsManRick
03-17-2012, 07:25 PM
I think you mischaracterize a lot of my arguments but agree it's not worth more verbiage. My goal for the Reds is to be a contender. I want to see positive contributions from the rotation. If Bailey does indeed have a 4.00 to 4.20 ERA pitching most of a full season, it would suffice for me, particularly at GABP. While it's not fantastic, I hope he progresses that far in 2012.

Fair enough. My argument would be that he doesn't really need to "progress" any to get that 4.00 to 4.20 ERA -- he can be basically the same guy he was last year and that's the kind of ERA we're likely to see. We can both agree it would be nice if that happens.

Kc61
03-18-2012, 03:32 PM
Fair enough. My argument would be that he doesn't really need to "progress" any to get that 4.00 to 4.20 ERA -- he can be basically the same guy he was last year and that's the kind of ERA we're likely to see. We can both agree it would be nice if that happens.

Just to belabor the point a little, I'd also think we both would agree that Homer needs to stay on the field.

One of the frustrations is that he has missed a lot of time.

Starting his next outing, I'll be watching Homer and rooting for him to do well and to stay healthy. At least 170 innings this year for Bailey.

dougdirt
03-18-2012, 05:19 PM
From Jim Bowden's twitter account:

@JimBowdenESPNxm


Dusty Baker just told us they're paying a lot of money to Bailey & Chapman and we'll have to find roles for them even if it's in bullpen

Seriously, is he ever going to listen to Walt? Or has Walt changed his mind? It seems that at every chance he gets, Dusty wants to talk about Chapman in the bullpen despite what his GM has said about the plan for him.

_Sir_Charles_
03-18-2012, 07:07 PM
I may be wrong, but if Bray is out for an extended period, I'd have no problem if Chapman was added to the pen for a short while and do some of his "stretching out" from the bigs. This may be what Dusty is thinking too. I don't think they've changed their thinking in regards to him starting this season.

RedsManRick
03-18-2012, 07:19 PM
Just to belabor the point a little, I'd also think we both would agree that Homer needs to stay on the field.

One of the frustrations is that he has missed a lot of time.

Starting his next outing, I'll be watching Homer and rooting for him to do well and to stay healthy. At least 170 innings this year for Bailey.

Agreed. And it's highly likely that his durability and effectiveness are related. If he's hurting, he's unlikely to be effective.

dougdirt
03-18-2012, 07:28 PM
I may be wrong, but if Bray is out for an extended period, I'd have no problem if Chapman was added to the pen for a short while and do some of his "stretching out" from the bigs. This may be what Dusty is thinking too. I don't think they've changed their thinking in regards to him starting this season.

That isn't how it reads to me. It reads to me that the Reds are paying both of them too much to not have on the big league roster.

Kc61
03-18-2012, 07:39 PM
That isn't how it reads to me. It reads to me that the Reds are paying both of them too much to not have on the big league roster.

I've always believed Chapman might be stretched out pitching longer stints in major league relief. Even if he does throw at AAA, it will be for a relatively short while.

He just makes too much money and, frankly, is too good to be off the major league team for very long. The Reds will want him pitching in some capacity. I don't blame them, they are going for it this year, they need this guy.

But that doesn't mean he won't start eventually. I think he will. Maybe even this year, if someone is hurt or faulters.

Wouldn't be shocked to see a Lecure type be traded this spring to make room. Or room may be created by these injuries in the pen. And it's also possible Chapman begins at Louisville but is up in the big leagues relatively early in the season.

Ron Madden
03-18-2012, 08:08 PM
I could be wrong but I believe the concept of stretching a pitcher out to be a starter consist of building up his endurance by increasing his innings pitched. I think that would be almost impossible to do by putting him in the bullpen.

Kc61
03-18-2012, 08:35 PM
I could be wrong but I believe the concept of stretching a pitcher out to be a starter consist of building up his endurance by increasing his innings pitched. I think that would be almost impossible to do by putting him in the bullpen.

Chapman has started before. I could see the Reds throwing him for a number of long stints in the pen. Maybe, before starting in the bigs, he would then go down to AAA for two or three starts.

I don't think it's necessarily all or nothing. But it's hard for me to see the Reds having Aroldis spend most of this season at AAA. If the Reds are contending. And if Aroldis is healthy and throwing well.

Superdude
03-19-2012, 03:56 AM
Chapman has started before. I could see the Reds throwing him for a number of long stints in the pen. Maybe, before starting in the bigs, he would then go down to AAA for two or three starts.

We've heard the long stints in the bullpen thing before. Baker's never used Chapman like that in the past, and I definitely don't see it occurring in the future.

It just amazes me how careless we are about Chapman's development. We paid 30 million dollars for a 22 year old pitcher with the single best arm on the planet, and his developmental schedule is somehow contingent on trivial things like Bill Bray's groin injury in March? Make a decision already and quit acting like Chapman's some dispensable asset that can be jerked around without consequence. :bang:

Nasty_Boy
03-19-2012, 10:22 AM
We've heard the long stints in the bullpen thing before. Baker's never used Chapman like that in the past, and I definitely don't see it occurring in the future.

It just amazes me how careless we are about Chapman's development. We paid 30 million dollars for a 22 year old pitcher with the single best arm on the planet, and his developmental schedule is somehow contingent on trivial things like Bill Bray's groin injury in March? Make a decision already and quit acting like Chapman's some dispensable asset that can be jerked around without consequence. :bang:

:beerme::beerme::beerme::beerme:

Kc61
03-19-2012, 10:30 AM
To be fair, the Reds have been consistent in their handling of Chapman this spring. He has been on the same track as the other starters. I read that he will start a minor league game today - as starters sometimes do in spring - and work several innings.

There is still a real chance that he will be in the Reds rotation or the AAA rotation on opening day. All the bullpen talk is just that. (I don't think it would be a tragedy, but so far it's just a hypothetical possibility.)

And frankly if Bailey doesn't get it together, he may be the one in the bullpen, not Chapman. Aroldis could easily take that spot in the rotation.

The dilemma is that Chapman is an expensive and valuable pitcher and the Reds will want him on the team in some capacity if possible. This is a real issue for the team. It isn't jerking him around. It's a question of getting your best arms in the major leagues in a potential winning season. It's a sacrifice to have a guy like Aroldis at AAA in a year when you are "all in."

We'll see what happens, I wouldn't pre-judge it. I think the Reds are handling the situation properly for now.

Ron Madden
03-19-2012, 10:52 AM
Sure you could easily put him right in the starting rotation but he wouldn't be able to give you very many innings because he hasn't been stretched out. What good does that do? I honestly believe you are missing the point of stretching a starter out.

CySeymour
03-19-2012, 11:19 AM
Dusty is in a win now mode, probably having as much to do with his contract being up. Managers tend to mostly only think about winning now because more often then not, they won't be around to see players when they do finally develop.

Kc61
03-19-2012, 11:26 AM
Sure you could easily put him right in the starting rotation but he wouldn't be able to give you very many innings because he hasn't been stretched out. What good does that do? I honestly believe you are missing the point of stretching a starter out.

I think I can handle the concept of stretching out a starting pitcher.

Many pitchers leave spring training only able to work about 5 or 6 effective innings. It takes longer for them to build up more tolerance. (Some never get stretched beyond six innings all season.)

I think Chapman by the end of spring will be able to work 6 innings. If he pitches well and conserves his pitches, he can build that up whether it be in the majors or AAA.

But that doesn't solve the Reds' dilemma. That dilemma is called "MAKING THE PLAYOFFS IN 2012".

So you have two competing considerations. One is using Chapman in the bigs this year and getting the benefit of his ability. The other is "stretching him out" for the future.

I understand that as a GM some of us would stick him in Louisville for the season and let him become a fully stretched starter. The Reds, a small market team paying Chapman a lot of dough, may feel they don't have that option. They may feel they need him in the NL, not the IL.

If he winds up in longer relief in the bullpen, the "stretching" may be less than ideal. But the advantage may be games in October.

One way or the other, I think Chapman will be starting games by mid-season. Whether he follows the AAA program, the Reds rotation program, the Reds relief program with some AAA near the end, or whatever.

So, while I may not understand "stretching", I think I understand the issues the Reds face. So far, they are handling it just fine IMO.

dougdirt
03-19-2012, 06:12 PM
Homer Bailey today against the White Sox: 4ip, 3h, 1bb, 1k, 0er.
Aroldis Chapman today against some minor league guys: 2.1ip, 4h, 2er, 2bb, 4k.

Kc61
03-19-2012, 06:19 PM
Homer Bailey today against the White Sox: 4ip, 3h, 1bb, 1k, 0er.
Aroldis Chapman today against some minor league guys: 2.1ip, 4h, 2er, 2bb, 4k.

Chapman had the better K rate today. And the better K/BB rate.

Chapman gave up a lot of hits. Bad luck, not in his control.

On a more serious note, glad to see Homer pitched well. He got hit fairly hard in the first, a couple of solid line drives, but settled down and pitched pretty well today.

Masset pitched well too, good to see him healthy and pitching again. Scoreless game so far.

corkedbat
03-19-2012, 07:41 PM
I could be wrong but I believe the concept of stretching a pitcher out to be a starter consist of building up his endurance by increasing his innings pitched. I think that would be almost impossible to do by putting him in the bullpen.

I would include getting them in an every fifth day routine too.

Ron Madden
03-20-2012, 04:47 AM
I would include getting them in an every fifth day routine too.

Yes, and I believe it has more to do with building up a pitchers endurance and arm strength to safely pitch more innings per season than it does to rush him into good enough shape go six innings in a game..I believe the Reds have mishandled Chapman from the beginning but that's just my opinion so I'll shut up now.

bucksfan2
03-20-2012, 12:02 PM
What happens if Chapman make a good case to get the 5th rotation spot? I am assuming that the first 4 are set in stone barring an injury. Cueto, Latos, Leake, and Arroyo all seem to be locked into their slot. Are you willing to lose Bailey so Chapman can break camp in the spring?

Kc61
03-20-2012, 12:16 PM
What happens if Chapman make a good case to get the 5th rotation spot? I am assuming that the first 4 are set in stone barring an injury. Cueto, Latos, Leake, and Arroyo all seem to be locked into their slot. Are you willing to lose Bailey so Chapman can break camp in the spring?

If Chappy is lights out down the stretch, then Bailey will be a long reliever and Lecure will go elsewhere.

Really, with all of our consternation about this, it's really a positive for the team. Whatever the roles for Homer and Chapman coming out of spring training, the pitching depth is necessary and helpful.

Just think about the possibilty that the Reds won't have room for Chapman and Jeff Francis. Who would have thunk it a couple years ago.

bucksfan2
03-20-2012, 12:43 PM
If Chappy is lights out down the stretch, then Bailey will be a long reliever and Lecure will go elsewhere.

Really, with all of our consternation about this, it's really a positive for the team. Whatever the roles for Homer and Chapman coming out of spring training, the pitching depth is necessary and helpful.

Just think about the possibilty that the Reds won't have room for Chapman and Jeff Francis. Who would have thunk it a couple years ago.

Every time you mention Bailey to the pen you get this in response "He takes too long to warm up." Its the primary reason I don't see Bailey heading to the pen and staying in the rotation this season.

The depth sure has gotten a lot better over the past few years. There was a time when those two would be #1a and #1b in the rotation.

Kc61
03-20-2012, 01:31 PM
Every time you mention Bailey to the pen you get this in response "He takes too long to warm up." Its the primary reason I don't see Bailey heading to the pen and staying in the rotation this season.

The depth sure has gotten a lot better over the past few years. There was a time when those two would be #1a and #1b in the rotation.

I'm not saying Homer is an ideal reliever. I don't think he is a reliever at all.

But he has no options, the Reds like his arm. If, by some chance, Homer doesn't make the rotation, I think he could be useful as a longer reliever. Somebody who pitches occasionally for longer stints.

I don't see him as an every day type reliever.

Again, necessity is the mother of invention. The Reds have a lot of potential starters. They will need to figure out where all belong.

Bailey at this point is likely to have a starting spot, so his ability to relieve is probably a moot point. Chapman and and Francis are less clear and are both interesting situations.

Chip R
03-20-2012, 02:40 PM
Every time you mention Bailey to the pen you get this in response "He takes too long to warm up." Its the primary reason I don't see Bailey heading to the pen and staying in the rotation this season.

I've seen this before as well. However, in Homer's only career relief stint, he pitched 2 shutout innings against the Phillies in Game 3 of the Division Series in 2010. Small sample size, to be sure but he was successful then.

WildcatFan
03-21-2012, 11:18 AM
For what it's worth, this is from the Baseball Tonight Bus Tour Series on ESPN.com. This came out of nowhere, and they didn't list a source:


Aroldis Chapman will start the season in the bullpen, giving the Reds three lefties along with Sean Marshall and Bill Bray. Chapman has a long way to go before he’s a polished pitcher -- he issued 41 walks in 50 innings last year -- but pitching coach Bryan Price said Chapman is “developing as a pitcher" this spring. He is throwing three pitches for strikes, he has a much better feel for his curveball, he has greatly improved his pickoff move and he has become a better fielder. Chapman is a contingency plan for the rotation, but only when he proves he can consistently throw more strikes. He has been better this spring.

http://espn.go.com/blog/spring-training/post/_/id/198/bbtn-bus-tour-reds-camp

Nasty_Boy
03-21-2012, 03:23 PM
^^^ I saw that earlier and had not seen that mentioned anywhere else... I wonder if Baker told Timmy this or this was just pure speculation on his part. I would think that announcement would have made some news with the beat writers. I see a real power struggle between what Walt wants/says vs. what Dusty wants/says.

RedsManRick
03-21-2012, 03:53 PM
For what it's worth, this is from the Baseball Tonight Bus Tour Series on ESPN.com. This came out of nowhere, and they didn't list a source:



http://espn.go.com/blog/spring-training/post/_/id/198/bbtn-bus-tour-reds-camp

If that's true, I have to imagine LeCure is headed to Louisville.

REDblooded
03-21-2012, 10:25 PM
If it's true, just go ahead and replace Baker... Seriously. I'm done with him. He doesn't bring anything of value that couldn't be replaced by an interim manager. He's too old/stubborn to change his ways, and it's time to move on, even if it means eating his last season. The guy reminds me of watching the Pacers stick with Jim O'Brien. Too worried about his own short-term tail to improve the team for the long-run.

dougdirt
03-21-2012, 10:50 PM
If it's true, just go ahead and replace Baker... Seriously. I'm done with him. He doesn't bring anything of value that couldn't be replaced by an interim manager. He's too old/stubborn to change his ways, and it's time to move on, even if it means eating his last season. The guy reminds me of watching the Pacers stick with Jim O'Brien. Too worried about his own short-term tail to improve the team for the long-run.

Word has it that someone very powerful wants him as the Reds manager though, even if others don't.

OnBaseMachine
03-21-2012, 10:51 PM
If it's true, just go ahead and replace Baker... Seriously. I'm done with him. He doesn't bring anything of value that couldn't be replaced by an interim manager. He's too old/stubborn to change his ways, and it's time to move on, even if it means eating his last season. The guy reminds me of watching the Pacers stick with Jim O'Brien. Too worried about his own short-term tail to improve the team for the long-run.

Great post, spot on.

kbrake
03-21-2012, 11:40 PM
Dusty Baker isn't half as bad as 99% of this board likes to act like he is. I agree Chapman shouldn't be anywhere near that bullpen but people need to relax. 15 days til Opening Day and already calling for Dusty to be fired. Let's wait til he actually screws up a game.

dougdirt
03-22-2012, 10:28 AM
Let's wait til he actually screws up a game.

You pretend like this is his first year ever managing with a comment like that. Those of us who are "anti-Dusty" are that way because of what we have seen from him over the last 20 years, not because of Spring Training 2012.

Slyder
03-22-2012, 10:45 AM
For what it's worth, this is from the Baseball Tonight Bus Tour Series on ESPN.com. This came out of nowhere, and they didn't list a source:



http://espn.go.com/blog/spring-training/post/_/id/198/bbtn-bus-tour-reds-camp

:angry::angry::angry::angry:

If he ends up in the pen then the thought process of making him a starter is moot. There just won't be enough innings to properly stretch him out in the majors because Dusty freaking Baker will use him in just one type of situation (read tight game in the 8th inning to get it to Madson). Trade him while he still has a lot of value because I guarentee you a number of teams would value him as a starter and have the ability to properly do it.

REDREAD
03-22-2012, 02:23 PM
If he ends up in the pen then the thought process of making him a starter is moot. There just won't be enough innings to properly stretch him out in the majors because Dusty freaking Baker will use him in just one type of situation (read tight game in the 8th inning to get it to Madson).

I don't think this will be the case. Marshall is likely to have that role.
Then you have Arrondo and Masset who will also be given a shot at set up duties. Dusty has confidence in both of them.

Really, due to the reinforced bullpen, this may be the perfect year to use Chapman in longer stints out of the pen. The only concern I would have is when a team carries 12 pitchers, there's really not much of a need to have a long man.
But, I expect there to be some starts where Homer leaves the game early. They could also pull Leake in the 6th inning to give Chapman 2-3 inning stints and save some innings on Leake's arm.

Honestly, I think Dusty will be on board with how Walt wants Chapman to be used. Remember, this is Dusty's last year of his contract. Walt is going to have input on his contract renewal. Dusty really doesn't have free reign to do whatever he wants. No field manager does anymore. They are all micromanaged by the front office to some degree.

kbrake
03-22-2012, 03:18 PM
You pretend like this is his first year ever managing with a comment like that. Those of us who are "anti-Dusty" are that way because of what we have seen from him over the last 20 years, not because of Spring Training 2012.

I've never seen this place happy with a manager. It's not about Dusty Baker, this place is never happy with the manager. And over 162 they all make mistakes and trust me Dusty has made me furious at times I just think Redszone over does it at times.

bucksfan2
03-22-2012, 03:29 PM
I've never seen this place happy with a manager. It's not about Dusty Baker, this place is never happy with the manager. And over 162 they all make mistakes and trust me Dusty has made me furious at times I just think Redszone over does it at times.

They loved Pete Mackanin.

Superdude
03-22-2012, 03:36 PM
:angry::angry::angry::angry:

If he ends up in the pen then the thought process of making him a starter is moot. There just won't be enough innings to properly stretch him out in the majors because Dusty freaking Baker will use him in just one type of situation (read tight game in the 8th inning to get it to Madson). Trade him while he still has a lot of value because I guarentee you a number of teams would value him as a starter and have the ability to properly do it.

It's not just the innings either. There's still the pacing, efficiency, and pitch variety elements of starting that Chapman hasn't had to deal with since early 2010. That stuff takes reps and experience. Occasionally pitching him an extra inning will do nothing close to establishing a starter mindset IMO.

I wish they'd just put him in the bullpen at this point. The three year equivocation exercise is just too much for my little heart to handle Dusty!

REDblooded
03-22-2012, 03:56 PM
I've never seen this place happy with a manager. It's not about Dusty Baker, this place is never happy with the manager. And over 162 they all make mistakes and trust me Dusty has made me furious at times I just think Redszone over does it at times.


It is about Dusty Baker. He has a track record and he's doing nothing to dispel it. Chapman is wasted on this team as long as Dusty is the manager. Either Chapman needs to go (like Slyder said, while he still has value), or Dusty needs to go. I choose Dusty.

kbrake
03-22-2012, 05:04 PM
Have we even confirmed that Chapman is for sure in the pen? ESPN has made mistakes before.

traderumor
03-22-2012, 05:22 PM
They loved Pete Mackanin.Based on some dead cat bounce action. There's been a lot of managerial changes around the league since then, if he was as advertised with his interim stint with the Reds, I'd think he would have landed another job elsewhere by now. I mean, Mike Quade got a managerial job since Pete was available.

traderumor
03-22-2012, 05:24 PM
Have we even confirmed that Chapman is for sure in the pen? ESPN has made mistakes before.Nope, just knee jerk reactions. Unusual to see that ;)

_Sir_Charles_
03-22-2012, 05:33 PM
Have we even confirmed that Chapman is for sure in the pen? ESPN has made mistakes before.

Shocking, but true. :D

That's why when I originally posted that bit, I said that it DID come from espn afterall. :O)

dougdirt
03-22-2012, 05:38 PM
I've never seen this place happy with a manager. It's not about Dusty Baker, this place is never happy with the manager. And over 162 they all make mistakes and trust me Dusty has made me furious at times I just think Redszone over does it at times.

The difference is, this place (and every other place) thought Baker was a terrible manager before he even came here. Baker took a team to the world series one year and wasn't brought back the next. That was a team who had been to the world series twice before since moving to San Francisco in 1958. Dusty Baker is the most ridiculed manager in the history of the internet. That isn't because he has managed every team and driven all of their fans crazy. It is because the guy does and says some absolutely wacky things.

kbrake
03-22-2012, 06:16 PM
The difference is, this place (and every other place) thought Baker was a terrible manager before he even came here. Baker took a team to the world series one year and wasn't brought back the next. That was a team who had been to the world series twice before since moving to San Francisco in 1958. Dusty Baker is the most ridiculed manager in the history of the internet. That isn't because he has managed every team and driven all of their fans crazy. It is because the guy does and says some absolutely wacky things.

I would say the fact that he has been around this long means he has done something right. Can you honestly say you dislike him as a manager more than Bob Boone, Jerry Narron, or Dave Miley? Again I don't think Dusty is a great manager I just think the beating he takes on Redszone is a little much at times.

dougdirt
03-22-2012, 06:22 PM
I would say the fact that he has been around this long means he has done something right. Can you honestly say you dislike him as a manager more than Bob Boone, Jerry Narron, or Dave Miley? Again I don't think Dusty is a great manager I just think the beating he takes on Redszone is a little much at times.

To be fair, I am more aware of Dusty than those guys, so I won't go into that. But, being around a long time doesn't mean he has done something right or being around for a short while means you did something wrong.

I think part of the reason that managers today get more of a "beating" as you say, is because of the amount of information at the fans fingertips. Used to be, when a manager said something, the fans couldn't spend 25 seconds to find out if the manager was full of crap or not. It seems that Dusty has a lot of those moments and then gets very upset when someone calls him on it (or anything for that matter). Dusty, to me, is far too old school for my liking. He doesn't like new ideas and flat out gets mad about some of them when asked about them.

edabbs44
03-22-2012, 06:24 PM
The difference is, this place (and every other place) thought Baker was a terrible manager before he even came here. Baker took a team to the world series one year and wasn't brought back the next. That was a team who had been to the world series twice before since moving to San Francisco in 1958. Dusty Baker is the most ridiculed manager in the history of the internet. That isn't because he has managed every team and driven all of their fans crazy. It is because the guy does and says some absolutely wacky things.

You lost me after saying something about the history of the internet.

dougdirt
03-22-2012, 06:27 PM
You lost me after saying something about the history of the internet.

So what is your stance on just about everyone thinking he was a terrible manager before he became the Cincinnati Reds manager?

edabbs44
03-22-2012, 06:35 PM
So what is your stance on just about everyone thinking he was a terrible manager before he became the Cincinnati Reds manager?

Just about everyone, yet he is a three time MOY winner?

dougdirt
03-22-2012, 06:41 PM
Just about everyone, yet he is a three time MOY winner?

Yes.... because we know that they look a lot deeper than wins/losses.

TheNext44
03-22-2012, 06:47 PM
So what is your stance on just about everyone thinking he was a terrible manager before he became the Cincinnati Reds manager?

I'd say that's a gross overstatement. Saber fans didn't like him, just like they don't like Joe Morgan because they both take a traditionalist view towards the game. But outside of Cubs fans, most baseball fans have a high opinion of Baker as a manager.

dougdirt
03-22-2012, 06:49 PM
I'd say that's a gross overstatement. Saber fans didn't like him, just like they don't like Joe Morgan because they both take a traditionalist view towards the game. But outside of Cubs fans, most baseball fans have a high opinion of Baker as a manager.

Maybe it is just because I tend to stay in "saber" circles, but I haven't seen anyone, anywhere as a whole, think Dusty Baker is a decent manager.

edabbs44
03-22-2012, 06:52 PM
Maybe it is just because I tend to stay in "saber" circles, but I haven't seen anyone, anywhere as a whole, think Dusty Baker is a decent manager.

Baseball writers seem to think he is minimally a somewhat decent manager.

edabbs44
03-22-2012, 06:53 PM
Yes.... because we know that they look a lot deeper than wins/losses.

What should their #1 criteria be? Saying the saberpopular thing?

dougdirt
03-22-2012, 07:01 PM
Baseball writers seem to think he is minimally a somewhat decent manager.

Baseball writers also used wins as a way to hand out the Cy Young.

RANDY IN INDY
03-22-2012, 07:26 PM
I don't think he is an elite manager but I don't think he is a bad manager either. A lot of players are very complimentary of the way Dusty runs the ship. I think he communicates well and handles the players very well. He frustrates me, sometimes with game management, and lineup construction, but so has just about every Reds manager since I have followed the team. Everyone watching has an opinion, but I know it's much easier to make decisions from in front of the TV with limited inside information than it is from the bench in the heat of the battle. Having managed elite travel teams and school teams, I know how smart everyone is from the stands when your strategies don't always work out. I know how I feel about those cherry pickers.

dougdirt
03-22-2012, 07:39 PM
I will just leave this one alone with one last thing.... There aren't many in the Reds front office who want Dusty as the manager, just one guy who is really important really likes him.

RANDY IN INDY
03-22-2012, 07:44 PM
They will make the decision, regardless of what anyone thinks. Most managers are very replaceable, unlike the very talented players that they manage.

RedsManRick
03-22-2012, 07:46 PM
I will just leave this one alone with one last thing.... There aren't many in the Reds front office who want Dusty as the manager, just one guy who is really important really likes him.

Well, the guy who cuts the check gets to make that call unfortunately. What I'd give for a Mark Cuban type owner...

Homer Bailey
03-22-2012, 08:53 PM
The way I see, is there are two main parts to being a major league manager.

Part 1 - This is your ability to put your players in the best position to succeed statistically. It means not pinch hitting Juan Castro for Josh Hamilton (Narron), it means not letting Corey Patterson face a lefty in a late game situation and saying "he hits lefties better than righties" when it's completely not true, it means not batting Paul Janish in the two hole, etc. In my opinion, Dusty is about as bad as you can possibly be at this part of managing. Absolutely, mind-numbingly bad. Way too many instances to name, but the hunches he had with Patterson, Taveras, Gomes, Janish, etc., were enough to drive me up a wall. This part of managing is easiest to control, in my opinion. Either you have baseball smarts, or your stubborn enough to think that you know better than stats do. This is where I despise Dusty as a manager.

Part 2: The part of being a manager that none of us know anything about: Managing the clubhouse. I've never read of an instance of a player not liking Dusty Baker, or not being excited to play for Dusty Baker. He's a player's manager. He seems to be a pretty cool guy. I have absolute, 100% confidence in many members of this board being better at Part 1 (above) than Dusty is. I have no idea how to evaluate part 2, and there is no way to quantify how that affects a team. I don't doubt that it is important to a ball club. Some overstate its importance, but the fact is, it can't truly be measured. Regardless, you don't want a ball club of guys that don't like each other, or don't like the manager.

Why many don't like Dusty is the fact that part 1 is the easiest to evaluate, and it's pretty much factual that Dusty is not good at that part of managing. How much stock you put into part 2 probably weighs directly into your opinion of the man as a manager.

RedsManRick
03-22-2012, 08:57 PM
The way I see, is there are two main parts to being a major league manager.

Excellent post. 100% on the money. And though I'm still not a Dusty baker fan, I've got a growing appreciation for #2.

traderumor
03-22-2012, 09:11 PM
Sparky became a much better manager after he wasn't a manager, a freaking genius even. While manager, it, whatever it was, was usually his fault. Fans are notoriously smarter than anyone getting paid to do the job.

mbgrayson
03-22-2012, 09:26 PM
The way I see, is there are two main parts to being a major league manager....


Nice analysis. I basically agree.

But back to the topic of this thread: I see that Mark Sheldon has a blog post that discusses 'Chapman decision ‘close’ (http://marksheldon.mlblogs.com/2012/03/22/chapman-decision-close/).

dougdirt
03-22-2012, 09:44 PM
The way I see, is there are two main parts to being a major league manager.

Part 1 - This is your ability to put your players in the best position to succeed statistically. It means not pinch hitting Juan Castro for Josh Hamilton (Narron), it means not letting Corey Patterson face a lefty in a late game situation and saying "he hits lefties better than righties" when it's completely not true, it means not batting Paul Janish in the two hole, etc. In my opinion, Dusty is about as bad as you can possibly be at this part of managing. Absolutely, mind-numbingly bad. Way too many instances to name, but the hunches he had with Patterson, Taveras, Gomes, Janish, etc., were enough to drive me up a wall. This part of managing is easiest to control, in my opinion. Either you have baseball smarts, or your stubborn enough to think that you know better than stats do. This is where I despise Dusty as a manager.

Part 2: The part of being a manager that none of us know anything about: Managing the clubhouse. I've never read of an instance of a player not liking Dusty Baker, or not being excited to play for Dusty Baker. He's a player's manager. He seems to be a pretty cool guy. I have absolute, 100% confidence in many members of this board being better at Part 1 (above) than Dusty is. I have no idea how to evaluate part 2, and there is no way to quantify how that affects a team. I don't doubt that it is important to a ball club. Some overstate its importance, but the fact is, it can't truly be measured. Regardless, you don't want a ball club of guys that don't like each other, or don't like the manager.

Why many don't like Dusty is the fact that part 1 is the easiest to evaluate, and it's pretty much factual that Dusty is not good at that part of managing. How much stock you put into part 2 probably weighs directly into your opinion of the man as a manager.
I want my manager to be great at #1. I don't need him to be great at #2. That seems like something I want the other coaches to be good at, but not something the manager needs to be. If he can be both, great. Dusty is a great people person. I have continuously stated that he would make a GREAT bench coach for that reason. But because of how poor he is at #1, it just makes him a poor manager IMO.

edabbs44
03-22-2012, 09:51 PM
Baseball writers also used wins as a way to hand out the Cy Young.

Did that ever cause them to give the award to a terrible pitcher? Don't forget, I'm not saying that he is the best. I am just disputing the statement that he is a terrible manager.

edabbs44
03-22-2012, 09:58 PM
I want my manager to be great at #1. I don't need him to be great at #2. That seems like something I want the other coaches to be good at, but not something the manager needs to be. If he can be both, great. Dusty is a great people person. I have continuously stated that he would make a GREAT bench coach for that reason. But because of how poor he is at #1, it just makes him a poor manager IMO.

I guess I have a little bit of trouble with this. One key reason why I believe Dusty is liked by his players is because he isn't fickle, isn't going to panic and start benching guys or changing lineups because of a slump. We have seen him stick with guys to a fault, but also to his credit. We don't know what would have happened if he quickly dropped Masset after one of his early blowups, like in '09. What about when Jay and Stubbs were struggling in '09? Would it have been easy to start freaking out and shuffling the lineups?

Sometimes the goods and bads go together.

edabbs44
03-22-2012, 10:02 PM
Nice analysis. I basically agree.

But back to the topic of this thread: I see that Mark Sheldon has a blog post that discusses 'Chapman decision ‘close’ (http://marksheldon.mlblogs.com/2012/03/22/chapman-decision-close/).

Here's where I stand on Aroldis. At this point, the money is spent and I want him to be used where he can most help the team. These guys aren't stupid. Maybe they don't see him as being a successful starter. If they think that he will be most valuable in the pen, then so be it.

At this stage I'm not worried about his future value or his trade value or 2014. I am worried about the NLCS and WS. If Walt thinks their best shot at being a contender is with this guy as a reliever, then let's roll.

_Sir_Charles_
03-22-2012, 10:03 PM
I'm on the side that FAVORS Dusty. While I'll readily admit that his lineups can drive me batty, it's the rest of the job that he either does well enough to satisfy me or that he excels at.

dougdirt
03-22-2012, 10:13 PM
I guess I have a little bit of trouble with this. One key reason why I believe Dusty is liked by his players is because he isn't fickle, isn't going to panic and start benching guys or changing lineups because of a slump. We have seen him stick with guys to a fault, but also to his credit. We don't know what would have happened if he quickly dropped Masset after one of his early blowups, like in '09. What about when Jay and Stubbs were struggling in '09? Would it have been easy to start freaking out and shuffling the lineups?

Sometimes the goods and bads go together.

I don't think he should start benching guys who are slumping either, or even change his line up. Ideally, I would like a line up 1-8 that is pretty stable throughout the entire season.

I don't think many managers would have done anything different from what Dusty did with Stubbs and Bruce.

RedsManRick
03-22-2012, 10:30 PM
I want my manager to be great at #1. I don't need him to be great at #2. That seems like something I want the other coaches to be good at, but not something the manager needs to be. If he can be both, great. Dusty is a great people person. I have continuously stated that he would make a GREAT bench coach for that reason. But because of how poor he is at #1, it just makes him a poor manager IMO.

I really wish baseball worked like football. Let Dusty be the "head coach", but have there be pitching and hitting coordinators that handle the details of execution during the game.

RANDY IN INDY
03-22-2012, 10:30 PM
Sparky became a much better manager after he wasn't a manager, a freaking genius even. While manager, it, whatever it was, was usually his fault. Fans are notoriously smarter than anyone getting paid to do the job.

:beerme:

cinreds21
03-22-2012, 11:13 PM
I don't know what has been already said on here, probably everything, but I want to give my two cents in. I am sick of this situation. If Walt wants him to start, put the damn hammer down and send him to Triple-A and start him. This going back and forth act has already worn out for me. Put him in the rotation, or put him as a closer. I honestly do not care which one, just pick one and stop backpedaling. I understand that they have two injuries which could result in Madson and Bray starting the year on the DL, but still, they were still thinking about having Chapman as a longman, which, to me, is extremely pointless. The "Have three lefties" argument is ludicrous. Aroldis needs to start, he wants to start, so just let him start and stop wasting all that money that the so-called mid-market team spent on him. I am just sick of all the speculation. Walt needs to grow a pair and tell Baker to get over himself and that he is the boss and if he wants him to start, he is going to start.


Carry on.

edabbs44
03-23-2012, 09:01 AM
Nope, just knee jerk reactions. Unusual to see that ;)

If the Madson injury is more than first though (and it does seem like that is a distinct possibility), maybe ESPN shouldn't be the only venue being criticized for knee jerk reactions.

RANDY IN INDY
03-23-2012, 09:09 AM
It always seems like when the Reds say an injury is not serious, it ends up being serious.

medford
03-23-2012, 10:14 AM
It always seems like when the Reds say an injury is not serious, it ends up being serious.

Except when it isn't. There were many people convinced Aroldis, Arroyo, Bailey & Cueto were all heading fot TJ or shoulder surgery at different points last year yet none of them saw the knife. I think too many people think of Griffey and forget the numerous times an athlete comes up with a twinge that passes after a few weeks.

Not saying that Madson isn't heading for the knife, I have no clue, just saying that there are numerous times that the reds have said an injury wasn't "serious" and that turned out to be the case. We just tend to unload those situations from our memory banks since they're non-important

RANDY IN INDY
03-23-2012, 10:37 AM
Hope you are right on this one.

medford
03-23-2012, 11:00 AM
Hope you are right on this one.

no idea, just saying there are many times when they say "its nothing serious" and it is indeed nothing serious.

RedsManRick
03-23-2012, 01:19 PM
Rob Neyer is suggesting that Chapman is in the lead for the 5th rotation spot.

http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/3/23/2897390/aroldis-chapman-homer-bailey-cincinnati-reds-projected-rotation

If that happens, any chance that Homer gets traded before opening day?

traderumor
03-23-2012, 01:43 PM
Rob Neyer is suggesting that Chapman is in the lead for the 5th rotation spot.

http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/3/23/2897390/aroldis-chapman-homer-bailey-cincinnati-reds-projected-rotation

If that happens, any chance that Homer gets traded before opening day?I like the starter depth, not sure Francis brings that. Put Arroyo in the pen, hide Homer for long relief in the short term? No easy answers there, but I guess a trade would be good for the right return if hiding him or Arroyo in the bullpen isn't a short-term solution.

Kc61
03-23-2012, 01:45 PM
Put Chapman in fifth spot, trade Homer to Toronto for Francisco Cordero and cash.

RedsManRick
03-23-2012, 01:48 PM
I hear Angels are still looking for pitching depth. How about Bailey for Macier Izturis or Alberto Callaspo?

dougdirt
03-23-2012, 05:11 PM
Not going to lie.... I would hate to trade Bailey for Chapman because of spring training results. I want to see Chapman actually go out and be a starter somewhere for a month, or two, before making such a move. He has pitched into the 7th inning once in his entire career.

Kc61
03-23-2012, 05:29 PM
Not going to lie.... I would hate to trade Bailey for Chapman because of spring training results. I want to see Chapman actually go out and be a starter somewhere for a month, or two, before making such a move. He has pitched into the 7th inning once in his entire career.

It's fair to want to see Chapman prove himself as a starter.

What I continue to find puzzling is this idea that somehow Homer IS a proven starter.

He's as much a maybe as Chapman is. Except Aroldis throws 98 or 101 or 95 or whatever.

In any event, with injuries, the shuffling of the staff is still very unclear and it's impossible to know which of these pitchers will wind up in what spot.

dougdirt
03-23-2012, 05:40 PM
It's fair to want to see Chapman prove himself as a starter.

What I continue to find puzzling is this idea that somehow Homer IS a proven starter.

He's as much a maybe as Chapman is. Except Aroldis throws 98 or 101 or 95 or whatever.

In any event, with injuries, the shuffling of the staff is still very unclear and it's impossible to know which of these pitchers will wind up in what spot.

Homer Bailey is a lot more than Chapman is. Bailey has thrown over 100 innings in a pro season 7 years running and topped 200 innings once. Homer Bailey has a walk rate of 7.5% over the last two sesaons. Homer Bailey pitched beyond the 6th inning 45% of the time he took the mound last year.

Aroldis Chapman has topped 100 innings as a pro once, and never topped 110 innings. Aroldis Chapman has a walk rate of 17.8% in the Majors over the last two seasons, which of pitchers with at least 60 innings is easily the worst in baseball. Aroldis Chapman has pitched beyond the 6th inning once in his career.

They aren't in the same stratosphere as a "maybe".

Kc61
03-23-2012, 06:42 PM
Homer Bailey is a lot more than Chapman is. Bailey has thrown over 100 innings in a pro season 7 years running and topped 200 innings once. Homer Bailey has a walk rate of 7.5% over the last two sesaons. Homer Bailey pitched beyond the 6th inning 45% of the time he took the mound last year.

Aroldis Chapman has topped 100 innings as a pro once, and never topped 110 innings. Aroldis Chapman has a walk rate of 17.8% in the Majors over the last two seasons, which of pitchers with at least 60 innings is easily the worst in baseball. Aroldis Chapman has pitched beyond the 6th inning once in his career.

They aren't in the same stratosphere as a "maybe".

If you are looking for a solid fifth starter, a reasonably decent pitcher who is oft injured, throws usually about 120 innings, with good stuff and fair results, then I would agree Homer is your man. He has proven that he can accomplish that.

If you are looking for electric stuff, superior velocity, the ability (shown in relief outings) to be dominant for short stretches, but with iffy control and no major league track record pitching starter innings, then Aroldis is your man. He has proven that he can accomplish that.

Which is more likely to become a high end major league starter? Your guess is as good as mine. Maybe neither of them. Right now, I see a higher upside with Aroldis and a steadier pattern with Homer.

dougdirt
03-23-2012, 07:11 PM
If you are looking for a solid fifth starter, a reasonably decent pitcher who is oft injured, throws usually about 120 innings, with good stuff and fair results, then I would agree Homer is your man. He has proven that he can accomplish that.

If you are looking for electric stuff, superior velocity, the ability (shown in relief outings) to be dominant for short stretches, but with iffy control and no major league track record pitching starter innings, then Aroldis is your man. He has proven that he can accomplish that.

Which is more likely to become a high end major league starter? Your guess is as good as mine. Maybe neither of them. Right now, I see a higher upside with Aroldis and a steadier pattern with Homer.

Iffy control isn't Chapman. Chapman leads the Majors in walk percentage over the last two years of anyone with the amount of innings he has or more. He has very poor control.

edabbs44
03-23-2012, 07:15 PM
Iffy control isn't Chapman. Chapman leads the Majors in walk percentage over the last two years of anyone with the amount of innings he has or more. He has very poor control.

If you remove that horrifying stretch he had last season, where does he rank?

mattfeet
03-23-2012, 07:28 PM
If you remove that horrifying stretch he had last season, where does he rank?

Well, if we're doing that, Bruce was the MLB MVP if you remove April, June, July, and August.

TheNext44
03-23-2012, 07:58 PM
Well, if we're doing that, Bruce was the MLB MVP if you remove April, June, July, and August.

I believe Chapman's bad stretch was three games, and more of a mental breakdown than anything, which when projecting future performance, is important. However, even if you remove it, his K/9 was still over 5 which is pretty bad.

RedsManRick
03-23-2012, 07:59 PM
Well, if we're doing that, Bruce was the MLB MVP if you remove April, June, July, and August.

To be fair, it was 9 walks and 0 Ks in 1/3 of an inning. It's hard to compare hitters and pitchers in this respect. There's absolutely nothing a hitter can do in a short sample to drastically change his seasonal numbers. For a reliever, a couple disastrous performances ruin a full season.


His walk rate is still a very poor 5.8 if you remove those 9 walks and 1 out. His K/BB ratio goes up from 1.73 to to 2.22 -- from mediocre to good. He'd be very similar to Carlos Marmol.

Chapman was clearly not right in those appearances. I'm all for not cherry picking, but if I'm projecting Chapman, I'm taking his performances thus far with a massive grain of salt. You run any pitcher out there if he's hurting (and Chapman was supposedly hiding his issue) and you're going to get a performance from him that's not in line with what you'd want to project him for moving forward.

edabbs44
03-23-2012, 08:07 PM
Well, if we're doing that, Bruce was the MLB MVP if you remove April, June, July, and August.

Apples and oranges.

RBA
03-23-2012, 08:14 PM
I think Bailey been a dud so far and over-hyped. Maybe the Reds will trade him for Trey Griffey?

reds44
03-23-2012, 08:27 PM
Bailey hasn't live up to expectations.
Bailey is a useful pitcher.

mth123
03-23-2012, 09:08 PM
I think we're awfully quick to appoint Chapman to the rotation based on spring. He's gone 2, 2, 3, and 2.33 innings in four outings. His last was in a minor league game and he was hit a bit. He's never gone through a line-up multiple times and he's basically been pitching like a reliever with 5 days rest in between outings. He's promising, but I just don't see how he can "win" a job basd on those outings. I don't care if he's been perfect with all strikeouts, he's proven nothing this spring as far as a rotation spot goes. If you want to say he's one of the Red's 12 best pitchers, I'd agree. If you want to say he's one of the 5 best starters, I'd say he hasn't done anything to earn that at this point. Its pretty thin to simply write-off one of the guys who's been one of the team's top prospects who has shown steady improvement (even if it is slower than we'd like).

Its fair to say Chapman is pushing Bailey and if Bailey starts the season poorly and Chapman does well in AAA, Chapman should get a shot, but I just can't see making the switch to start the season based on such few innings and the short stints he's gone so far. Lets at least see the guy go through a line-up more than once successfully before seriously considering him.

I also don't think the suggestion of Chapman in the pen is so preposterous. He's clearly one of the 12 best pitchers in camp. Starting him in the minors might be best long term, but a team trying to win may find it difficult to go with a lesser option now for the sake of future years.

Kc61
03-23-2012, 10:15 PM
I think all this discussion is probably now irrelevant.

With the injury to Madson, I expect Homer in the rotation and Chapman in relief. I expect Chapman and Masset to set up Marshall, who will close. Until Madson gets back, which hopefully will be soon.

edabbs44
03-23-2012, 11:25 PM
We'll Likely see Chapman as a reliever all season again. And I'm cool with that.

Slyder
03-23-2012, 11:59 PM
We'll Likely see Chapman as a reliever all season again. And I'm cool with that.

Such a waste of potential. See what you can fetch for him if someone sees him as a starter.

Crumbley
03-24-2012, 02:13 AM
We'll Likely see Chapman as a reliever all season again. And I'm cool with that.
I'd rather have a lights out Chapman in the bullpen than a wishy washy performance after being yanked around. I don't know that he'll ever be the ace they envisioned but man is he valuable just doing what he's doing.

marcshoe
03-24-2012, 02:30 AM
Arroyo pitched four innings tonight, gave up five runs on six hits and five walks.

Bailey's not the guy who Chapman needs to replace.

Superdude
03-24-2012, 06:39 PM
I don't know what hope he has, but I'd say Chapman's making a fine case so far today.

5 innings 4 hits 0ER 5K 1BB

Sitting 94-98MPH according to gameday.

cinreds21
03-24-2012, 06:41 PM
Such a waste if they put him in the bullpen.

mth123
03-24-2012, 06:42 PM
I don't know what hope he has, but I'd say Chapman's making a fine case so far today.

5 innings 4 hits 0ER 5K 1BB

Sitting 94-98MPH according to gameday.

Twice through the order and the top 2 spots 3 times. I wouldn't move him to the pen now. He's just getting going.

Kc61
03-24-2012, 06:43 PM
I don't know what hope he has, but I'd say Chapman's making a fine case so far today.

5 innings 4 hits 0ER 5K 1BB

Sitting 94-98MPH according to gameday.

One thing for sure, it seems unlikely that Aroldis is going to the minor leagues. The Reds need his arm in Cincy.

The question now is whether Bailey is losing his rotation spot to Chapman.

Just goes to show you, there's always suspense in spring training, even when it seems that the team is set.

Kc61
03-24-2012, 06:46 PM
Such a waste if they put him in the bullpen.

I always thought Aroldis would spend most of this season in Cincy. Just couldn't believe the Reds would put his arm and contract at AAA.

But I never thought he would be ready to start games in the big leagues out of spring training. He's proving me very wrong.

lollipopcurve
03-24-2012, 06:49 PM
I don't know what hope he has, but I'd say Chapman's making a fine case so far today.

5 innings 4 hits 0ER 5K 1BB

Sitting 94-98MPH according to gameday.

It would be ridiculous for them to abandon his training to be a starter at this point. He's pitching well -- excellent K/BB ratio. That's exactly what you want to see out of Chapman. You don't know where that trajectory leads, but the ceiling is high. It would be the height of short-sighted, panicky roster management to derail what he's doing.

Marshall, Massett, Arredondo, Ondrusek, Bray -- that's 5 solid. After that, just figure it out. A high-paid manager and two pitching coaches should be able to do that, even if it requires a little trial and error.

Kc61
03-24-2012, 06:54 PM
Such a waste if they put him in the bullpen.


It would be ridiculous for them to abandon his training to be a starter at this point. He's pitching well -- excellent K/BB ratio. That's exactly what you want to see out of Chapman. You don't know where that trajectory leads, but the ceiling is high. It would be the height of short-sighted, panicky roster management to derail what he's doing.

Marshall, Massett, Arredondo, Ondrusek, Bray -- that's 5 solid. After that, just figure it out. A high-paid manager and two pitching coaches should be able to do that, even if it requires a little trial and error.

The bullpen thing may work out, true.

But how do you put Chapman in the minor leagues right now? I wouldn't. He's too good. He can help the Reds win the division.

I'd give him one more spring start. If he succeeds, I'd put Chapman in the rotation for the Reds.

Superdude
03-24-2012, 07:59 PM
The bullpen thing may work out, true.

But how do you put Chapman in the minor leagues right now? I wouldn't. He's too good. He can help the Reds win the division.

Because he's a potential top of the rotation hammer. Those guys are super valuable as evidenced by the farm draining trade we just committed to this winter. Maybe (and I use maybe it's most tenuous sense) Chapman in the bullpen is the difference between us making the playoffs or not, but you also have to recognize the tradeoff that another year in the bullpen is going to be crippling to his development as a starter. I know I wouldn't bet his future on the minor chance that his 50 innings in the pen are what put us over the top.

Kc61
03-24-2012, 10:08 PM
Because he's a potential top of the rotation hammer. Those guys are super valuable as evidenced by the farm draining trade we just committed to this winter. Maybe (and I use maybe it's most tenuous sense) Chapman in the bullpen is the difference between us making the playoffs or not, but you also have to recognize the tradeoff that another year in the bullpen is going to be crippling to his development as a starter. I know I wouldn't bet his future on the minor chance that his 50 innings in the pen are what put us over the top.

I think time and events are overtaking this debate. The debate used to be AAA starter v. major league reliever.

Right now, the more pertinent question is whether Chapman can be a member of the Reds' rotation. Looking at the alternatives, I say yes.

dougdirt
03-24-2012, 10:59 PM
Chapman threw 78 pitches today. All sliders and fastballs (some of his fastballs were classified incorrectly by MLBAM as change ups, but they were not change ups). Going off of previous reports on his games this spring, that means he has still yet to throw an actual change up in a game against other hitters.

WebScorpion
03-25-2012, 03:17 AM
The bullpen thing may work out, true.

But how do you put Chapman in the minor leagues right now? I wouldn't. He's too good. He can help the Reds win the division.

I'd give him one more spring start. If he succeeds, I'd put Chapman in the rotation for the Reds.

Because first of all, you don't base major decisions like that on a few meaningless Spring Training starts. Secondly, Chapman has a few things he still needs to learn, like a third pitch. You can't expect him to work on those things in the Major Leagues where every game counts. He needs to go to AAA and start every 5th day, stretch himself out and throw that changeup in any situation he can think of. If it gets hammered, no problem, that's how you learn...you fail a lot. He needs to have the freedom to fail if you want him to learn. This is what happened to Bailey, he was forced to do his learning in the big leagues and it messed his head up. Send him down, let him fail and grow. :thumbup:

lollipopcurve
03-25-2012, 08:36 AM
Chapman threw 78 pitches today. All sliders and fastballs (some of his fastballs were classified incorrectly by MLBAM as change ups, but they were not change ups). Going off of previous reports on his games this spring, that means he has still yet to throw an actual change up in a game against other hitters.

My guess is that the incorrectly labeled fastballs were the 3rd pitch he's been using this spring -- the splitter.

dougdirt
03-25-2012, 10:56 AM
My guess is that the incorrectly labeled fastballs were the 3rd pitch he's been using this spring -- the splitter.

Well, they sure look and move like fastballs. Not like change ups or splitters. So if it was a splitter, its a terrible pitch, essentially just a slower version of his normal fastball, without any extra movement.

lollipopcurve
03-25-2012, 11:03 AM
Well, they sure look and move like fastballs. Not like change ups or splitters. So if it was a splitter, its a terrible pitch, essentially just a slower version of his normal fastball, without any extra movement.

Where does your information come from? Watching the game?

Sea Ray
03-25-2012, 11:49 AM
If that's the case Doug then he still looks like a reliever to me. That doesn't sound like he's working to become a starter. If he doesn't try off speed pitches in a Spring Training game, I doubt he'll do so in a real game. Having heard that, my guess is we'll see him in our bullpen at GABP again this year but I doubt that they'll hand him the closers job. He'll begin as a set up guy

Vottomatic
03-25-2012, 12:15 PM
Not time to panic. Stick with the plan. Send Chapman to Louisville.

RedsManRick
03-25-2012, 12:27 PM
If that's the case Doug then he still looks like a reliever to me. That doesn't sound like he's working to become a starter. If he doesn't try off speed pitches in a Spring Training game, I doubt he'll do so in a real game. Having heard that, my guess is we'll see him in our bullpen at GABP again this year but I doubt that they'll hand him the closers job. He'll begin as a set up guy

Normally, I'd agree. But Randy Johnson threw basically two pitches for the majority of his career -- an mid to upper 90's fastball and a wipeout slider.

Chapman's two pitches are good enough, if he's locating, that even if a guy is sitting on them they're still really hard to hit.

Even in the last 5 or 6 years of Johnson's career when he started throwing a change-up/splitter, it was less than 10% of his pitches. And if you ask hitters, you had to sit fastball and adjust or you had zero chance against it. So adding a third pitch isn't likely to make his fastball any more effective. Obviously 10% is more than 0%, but I think having a third pitch is secondary to him locating his first two.

lollipopcurve
03-25-2012, 12:40 PM
But Randy Johnson threw basically two pitches for the majority of his career -- an mid to upper 90's fastball and a wipeout slider.

Yep. Pretty good comp, so far as I can tell.

It's also true that Chapman is experimenting with a split. A bit risky, given the arm troubles it's given many.

Sea Ray
03-25-2012, 02:42 PM
Obviously 10% is more than 0%, but I think having a third pitch is secondary to him locating his first two.

I agree with you here but I don't think he can expect to be Randy Johnson with only a FB and a slider. It goes w/o saying that first and foremost he has to locate his FB and slider. I tend to see FB/slider pitchers more often tend to be Rob Dibble than Randy Johnson

dougdirt
03-25-2012, 02:48 PM
Where does your information come from? Watching the game?

The movement via Pitch F/X.

RedsManRick
03-25-2012, 07:08 PM
I agree with you here but I don't think he can expect to be Randy Johnson with only a FB and a slider. It goes w/o saying that first and foremost he has to locate his FB and slider. I tend to see FB/slider pitchers more often tend to be Rob Dibble than Randy Johnson

I agree. I'm not exactly willing to bet he's got a future as Randy Johnson 2.0. But I know one thing, if he's kept in the bullpen, his chances of becoming a great starter are 0%.

Sea Ray
03-25-2012, 07:17 PM
I agree. I'm not exactly willing to bet he's got a future as Randy Johnson 2.0. But I know one thing, if he's kept in the bullpen, his chances of becoming a great starter are 0%.

If your attitude is starter or bust, fine, but that's got nothing to do with his array of pitches. I've been disappointed in his refusal to mix in more off speed stuff as a reliever. If he just plain can't, well OK, but if not, I'd like to see them

RedsManRick
03-25-2012, 07:31 PM
If your attitude is starter or bust, fine, but that's got nothing to do with his array of pitches. I've been disappointed in his refusal to mix in more off speed stuff as a reliever. If he just plain can't, well OK, but if not, I'd like to see them

Not at all. It's just that he can't develop a solid third pitch over the course of a handful of ST starts or when he's being jerked between relieving and starting.

He needs time to work on it and to get comfortable with it. As for "his refusal to mix in more off speed stuff" -- I'm not sure how much of that is his being stubborn.

If that third pitch makes him less effective when he's relieving, do you think he's going to use it? You think Dusty will want him using it? That's the problem, he doesn't need that third pitch in relief. And he's not going to work on it at the major league level if it's not already good enough to be used.

So if you use him in relief at the major league level and you demand that he have an effective third pitch to be a starter, he'll never be a starter for the Reds.

Sea Ray
03-25-2012, 09:39 PM
Not at all. It's just that he can't develop a solid third pitch over the course of a handful of ST starts or when he's being jerked between relieving and starting.

He needs time to work on it and to get comfortable with it. As for "his refusal to mix in more off speed stuff" -- I'm not sure how much of that is his being stubborn.

If that third pitch makes him less effective when he's relieving, do you think he's going to use it? You think Dusty will want him using it? That's the problem, he doesn't need that third pitch in relief. And he's not going to work on it at the major league level if it's not already good enough to be used.

So if you use him in relief at the major league level and you demand that he have an effective third pitch to be a starter, he'll never be a starter for the Reds.

I get all that but how do you explain him not trying his off speed pitches in Spring Training games? He's been around long enough to throw a few every now and then. I'll admit, Doug's report gives me doubt that he really wants to start

mattfeet
03-25-2012, 09:46 PM
Announcers on the Rockies/Reds game today said they spoke with Jocketty and he (apparently) said they're thinking of plugging Chapman in as closer. That's all I got, folks.

-Matt

cinreds21
03-25-2012, 10:28 PM
I'd be somewhat OK with that. A lot better than just a reliever.

Slyder
03-26-2012, 12:35 AM
I'd be somewhat OK with that. A lot better than just a reliever.

I still think his value is greater as trade bait than as a closer. I would almost guarantee someone still views him as a top flight starter potential and would pay out the ying yang for him. Especially considering his age.

Him as closer (or co closer) saves Marshall for the high pressure moments in the 7th and 8th. It lets Dusty use Marshall more freely knowing he can go multiple innings to get it to the closer.

Still don't like it, still think its a waste of an insane talent and we are settling for A good closer when we could have a great hammer in the rotation.

reds44
03-26-2012, 01:07 AM
And why wouldn't the Reds still view him as a potential top flight starter?

757690
03-26-2012, 01:15 AM
And why wouldn't the Reds still view him as a potential top flight starter?

I think they still do. I have not heard any comment from any Reds official whose vote counts,except for Dusty, that suggests that they would rather Chapman not be a starter.

All we have herd so far is noise from other reporters amd announcers, nearly all of it I am assuming, coming from Dusty.

The Reds may make Chapman the closer this season, but so far, the official line is that they still want him to be a starter.
.

Caveat Emperor
03-26-2012, 01:39 AM
And why wouldn't the Reds still view him as a potential top flight starter?

Lack of a quality third pitch? Serious command issues? Limited history of pitching deep into games?

Pick one.

There are a lot more reasons to think Chapman as a starter is fools errand than there are reasons to believe he'll succeed.

757690
03-26-2012, 01:53 AM
Lack of a quality third pitch? Serious command issues? Limited history of pitching deep into games?

Pick one.

There are a lot more reasons to think Chapman as a starter is fools errand than there are reasons to believe he'll succeed.

That would describe 99% of 22 year old pitchers. The fact that he continues to improve in each of those areas is the biggest reason to keep him as a starter.

Caveat Emperor
03-26-2012, 02:04 AM
That would describe 99% of 22 year old pitchers. The fact that he continues to improve in each of those areas is the biggest reason to keep him as a starter.

His command was iffy in 2010. It was iffy in 2011. I see no reason to believe it will be anything other than iffy in 2012.

If the Reds are really going all-in for 2012/2013 with Votto, you trade that mound of potential to someone else for something that can help win games right now.

Because if I'm the Reds, I want no part of Chapman as a starter until he can prove that he won't walk the bases loaded and force you to grab him in the 3rd and I want no part of Chapman as a closer until he can prove that he has the ability to throw his fastball for a strike when required.

757690
03-26-2012, 03:03 AM
His command was iffy in 2010. It was iffy in 2011. I see no reason to believe it will be anything other than iffy in 2012.

If the Reds are really going all-in for 2012/2013 with Votto, you trade that mound of potential to someone else for something that can help win games right now.

Because if I'm the Reds, I want no part of Chapman as a starter until he can prove that he won't walk the bases loaded and force you to grab him in the 3rd and I want no part of Chapman as a closer until he can prove that he has the ability to throw his fastball for a strike when required.

He's doing just that right now in spring training. He's not there yet, but he clearly is on the path. I do agree he needs to go down to AAA until he proves he can handle starting, but I'm not worried that he will, and soon.

Sea Ray
03-26-2012, 10:08 AM
In a perfect world I'd like to see him go down to Louisville and work on becoming a starter but this Madson injury changes that. This is a going all in yr for this team and we need him in the bullpen as either a closer or a setup man. Unfortunately the team needs will override his development and everything I'm hearing from Dusty and Walt seem to indicate they're of that opinion as well

vaticanplum
03-26-2012, 11:24 AM
His command was iffy in 2010. It was iffy in 2011. I see no reason to believe it will be anything other than iffy in 2012.

The reason to believe it could be better than iffy because command is a tangible thing that a 22-year-old can address and improve. it's in fact maybe the easiest thing he can do to improve his pitching.

I'm not sold on Chapman as a starter for a number of reasons, but to say that he is flat-out incapable of improving his command at this point is a bit premature, I think.

Kc61
03-26-2012, 11:54 AM
The reason to believe it could be better than iffy because command is a tangible thing that a 22-year-old can address and improve. it's in fact maybe the easiest thing he can do to improve his pitching.

I'm not sold on Chapman as a starter for a number of reasons, but to say that he is flat-out incapable of improving his command at this point is a bit premature, I think.

According to the various bios, Chapman is 24 years old.

I think his command will likely always be less than first rate.

I am sold on Chapman as a starter or a reliever. Either one. Few pitchers are the entire package, if Aroldis struggles with control once in awhile I can live with it.

While he did have some control issues last year, I thought he was generally very effective as a set up man. I think he will be very effective in any role.

My preference would be to give Chapman a starting slot, but I can live with relief for him. The closer spot is my least favorite for him, he doesn't have experience there.

But I don't want Aroldis at AAA for more than a few weeks, if at all. He is too good to leave off the Reds team. Even with the command issues.

Ignoring "role" for a minute, I think the best replacement for Madson's roster spot is Aroldis. He is the best guy to add to the Reds roster IMO.

_Sir_Charles_
03-26-2012, 12:06 PM
Ignoring "role" for a minute, I think the best replacement for Madson's roster spot is Aroldis. He is the best guy to add to the Reds roster IMO.

While I agree with this completely, the big question we have to ask is this....
Is this the best solution for his future development?

I understand that we now have a hole in the pen. But is filling that hole worth pushing back Aroldis' time-table for starting? I don't think so. I think we can fill that bullpen hole with someone else and not lose very much. The rest of the guys in the pen are still quite good and capable. Move people up a notch and backfill. I know Chappy's the best arm available, but using him in this role now only makes it even longer until we can fully utilize his capabilities. 30 million is an awful lot for a set-up bullpen arm.

lollipopcurve
03-26-2012, 12:17 PM
I think the best replacement for Madson's roster spot is Aroldis. He is the best guy to add to the Reds roster IMO.

I don't, not based on what they were saying about his ability to pitch multiple days on no rest or limited rest. And you know how Baker will trot his anointed closer out there 5 out of 6 days in a string of close ones. Apparently, Chapman is not built for that.

To me, it would be astonishingly dumb for them to yank him back to the pen, and the height of astonishingly dumb for them to tell him he's now the closer. I really will be stunned if they do -- then again, it would simply confirm that they're playing 2012 like it's last baseball season ever.

edabbs44
03-26-2012, 01:22 PM
I don't, not based on what they were saying about his ability to pitch multiple days on no rest or limited rest. And you know how Baker will trot his anointed closer out there 5 out of 6 days in a string of close ones. Apparently, Chapman is not built for that.

To me, it would be astonishingly dumb for them to yank him back to the pen, and the height of astonishingly dumb for them to tell him he's now the closer. I really will be stunned if they do -- then again, it would simply confirm that they're playing 2012 like it's last baseball season ever.

What other signs have you seen to hint that they are treating 2012 in that way?

Kc61
03-26-2012, 01:30 PM
I understand that we now have a hole in the pen. But is filling that hole worth pushing back Aroldis' time-table for starting? I don't think so. I think we can fill that bullpen hole with someone else and not lose very much. The rest of the guys in the pen are still quite good and capable. Move people up a notch and backfill. I know Chappy's the best arm available, but using him in this role now only makes it even longer until we can fully utilize his capabilities. 30 million is an awful lot for a set-up bullpen arm.

Charles, I guess I'm in the minority on this one. I think the bullpen is just ok right now, if that.

Nick Masset had a 1.521 WHIP last year. He averaged 9.7 hits and 4 walks per nine innings. By the end of last year, I sighed whenever he entered the game.

Bill Bray hasn't pitched in a single game this spring. I like Bray, but he has been injury prone.

Arredondo has control issues. He's my big hope for this season. But it's only a hope. Not a sure thing.

Ondrusek wore down badly in the second half. He's had a great spring in 2012, but finished very poorly last year.

Sam Lecure. He's a good innings eater, but I don't see him as a late innings guy.

This group, with Marshall, is ok, but I don't see it as a top notch bullpen at all.

It doesn't have to be Chapman who gets added. But the Reds need to focus on the pen or it will be a problem.

And it would not be (as one poster said) "astonishingly dumb" to put Chapman in relief. It would be favoring the short-term over the long term. One might say it is "astonishingly dumb" to have your top arm in the minor leagues when you are trying to win a pennant. Either side of the argument has its points to make.

marcshoe
03-26-2012, 02:27 PM
fwiw, Bray pitched in a minor league game Friday. He got hit pretty hard, but at least he's back out there.

lollipopcurve
03-26-2012, 02:43 PM
And it would not be (as one poster said) "astonishingly dumb" to put Chapman in relief. It would be favoring the short-term over the long term. One might say it is "astonishingly dumb" to have your top arm in the minor leagues when you are trying to win a pennant. Either side of the argument has its points to make.

Well, in my opinion it would be astonishingly dumb. You stunt his development as a starter. You run the risk of injury, not just by rebooting his regimen completely, but by thrusting him into a role that, according to accounts last year, he's ill-suited for (throwing on consecutive days). Plus the fact Chapman prefers to start -- he won't be much of a fan of the move. To me, all things considered, only a terribly spooked, reactive and shortsighted management team would ask their best starting pitching prospect. a guy with a very high ceiling who is being stretched out for the first time in years, to go back to being a late inning reliever one week from the start of the season. Inane. In my opinion.

Then you consider how Baker overuses his high-leverage guys. Recipe for disaster.

Hoosier Red
03-26-2012, 02:59 PM
I think if you make Chapman a reliever this year, you've committed him to be a reliever at least for as long as he's a Red.

He has 3 years left on his deal. There's no way you go into next year with the possibility that he'll have to spend another 2 months in Louisville to stretch him out as a starter. You simply can't give up the 2 months when he'll then only have 10 months to start and impact the team as a starter.

Kc61
03-26-2012, 03:01 PM
Well, in my opinion it would be astonishingly dumb. You stunt his development as a starter. You run the risk of injury, not just by rebooting his regimen completely, but by thrusting him into a role that, according to accounts last year, he's ill-suited for (throwing on consecutive days). Plus the fact Chapman prefers to start -- he won't be much of a fan of the move. To me, all things considered, only a terribly spooked, reactive and shortsighted management team would ask their best starting pitching prospect. a guy with a very high ceiling who is being stretched out for the first time in years, to go back to being a late inning reliever one week from the start of the season. Inane. In my opinion.

Then you consider how Baker overuses his high-leverage guys. Recipe for disaster.

Despite all the adjectives in your post, I think there is another side to the story. For one thing, Chapman is highly paid and the clock is ticking on his contract. The Reds have a big hole in their bullpen and Chapman is obviously the most able to fill that hole. Reds are a smaller market team, probably lack payflex to get a new high end reliever from outside. The team intends to win this year, one could argue that there isn't the luxury of putting Aroldis in Louisville this year for stretching.

In addition, there are some who feel Chapman isn't well suited to starting. Some feel that he lacks the command and lacks the assortment of pitches to succeed as a starter. It wouild be a shame to have him off the Reds in the minors for a year to find out that he can't start consistently or effectively.

You argue that Chapman would prefer to start. Wonder how he feels about a year of bus rides in AAA. Something tells me that isn't what he has in mind when he says he wants to be a starter.

Still another point is that grooming Chapman for 2013 or 2014 may be fine for his individual development, but how good will the Red be at that point in time? Votto could be gone or a lame duck. Phillips could be gone. You try to win when you can in sports, particularly in a smaller market. 2012 seems like a good time.

There's no clear answer. From my perspective if Chapman can start for the Reds most of this year, even after a relatively short AAA stint, that's the best case. Otherwise I want him to relieve for the Reds.

I wouldn't be happy with Aroldis in Louisville all or most of this year.

757690
03-26-2012, 03:01 PM
First, Joba Chamberlain says hi.

Second, this is why the Reds should keep Chapman as a starter. Even if he needs all of 2012 in AAA to develop, the Reds would have from 2013-2015 in their rotation:

Latos
Cueto
Chapman
Leake

puca
03-26-2012, 03:02 PM
As far as the Reds post-season chances go, I am much more concerned with what happens if/when one of their 5 starters get injured or proves to be totally ineffective. Just because Chapman starts the season in AAA doesn't mean he will spend the entire year there.

My approach would be to use April and May to figure out whether Chapman can be developed into a starter (in AAA). Bring him up in June/July to either strengthen the bullpen or rotation, whichever needs it the most and is the best fit for him. To keep his innings from becoming a problem he will probably not be able to start 35 games this year anyhow. But if he spends another full year as a reliever then any timetable for him to become a starter is pushed back again.

757690
03-26-2012, 03:09 PM
Despite all the adjectives in your post, I think there is another side to the story. For one thing, Chapman is highly paid and the clock is ticking on his contract. The Reds have a big hole in their bullpen and Chapman is obviously the most able to fill that hole. Reds are a smaller market team, probably lack payflex to get a new high end reliever from outside. The team intends to win this year, one could argue that there isn't the luxury of putting Aroldis in Louisville this year for stretching.

In addition, there are some who feel Chapman isn't well suited to starting. Some feel that he lacks the command and lacks the assortment of pitches to succeed as a starter. It wouild be a shame to have him off the Reds in the minors for a year to find out that he can't start consistently or effectively.

You argue that Chapman would prefer to start. Wonder how he feels about a year of bus rides in AAA. Something tells me that isn't what he has in mind when he says he wants to be a starter.

Still another point is that grooming Chapman for 2013 or 2014 may be fine for his individual development, but how good will the Red be at that point in time? Votto could be gone or a lame duck. Phillips could be gone. You try to win when you can in sports, particularly in a smaller market. 2012 seems like a good time.

There's no clear answer. From my perspective if Chapman can start for the Reds most of this year, even after a short AAA stint, fine. Otherwise I want him to relieve for the Reds.

I wouldn't be happy with Aroldis in Louisville all or most of this year.

1. Marshall is by far the Red who is best suited to be the closer, and it's not even close. He could end up being the best closer in the NL.

2. The Reds don't need Chapman this year. At all. They can win the division and go deep into the playoffs with Chapman never throwing a pitch in a Cincinnati Reds uniform. The money is irrelevant, it's a sunk cost.

Kc61
03-26-2012, 03:10 PM
First, Joba Chamberlain says hi.

Second, this is why the Reds should keep Chapman as a starter. Even if he needs all of 2012 in AAA to develop, the Reds would have from 2013-2015 in their rotation:

Latos
Cueto
Chapman
Leake

Maybe. Barring injury. With an infield perhaps of Soto, Rodriguez, Cozart, and Francisco or Frazier.

You want to take a flyer on 2012 without your best talent, that's ok. Not me.

I want Chappy on the big club by May 15. 2012. In whatever role.