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nate
03-09-2012, 02:57 PM
Article here (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/positional-power-rankings-starting-pitchers-16-30/).

How did the Reds fare?


When I ran the numbers and ordered by team total, I was shocked to see the Reds this low, but ZIPS is just not a big fan of...

Discuss!

WildcatFan
03-09-2012, 05:07 PM
Oof. I've generally been on board with this series, but I dunno about that one. Sounds like ZiPS is extra grumpy toward the Reds. Putting aside numbers, just look at some of the rotations ranked higher than Cincinnati's. Tom Millone, Brandon McCarthy, Brad Peacock and Bartolo Colon? Luke Hochevar, Felipe Paulino, Jonathan Sanchez and Bruce Chen?

RedsManRick
03-09-2012, 06:15 PM
Yeah, the projection systems are not kind to Reds pitchers since they generally expect pitchers to regress back to their overall level of performance over the last few years. This particularly hurts Bailey as he's taken two big steps forward with his control. If the young guys simply sustain their gains, the staff will be a lot better than projection systems suggest.

757690
03-09-2012, 06:52 PM
I like SIERRA and tERA for pitcher's projections because they include batted ball tendencies like GB and FB rates. Both of those are much kinder to Reds pitchers than WAR. I personally think the current system used to figure out a pitcher's WAR is ineffective, since it doesn't include any batted ball tendencies.

MikeThierry
03-09-2012, 06:56 PM
I think pitchers are the hardest position to project because it's such an inconsistent position. With an every day player, you can kind of project what player A will do on a given season. It's so hard to see how well a pitcher will pitch in a walk year or coming back from injury.

RedEye
03-09-2012, 09:12 PM
I was really hoping the Reds would add one more league average SP this off season, mostly b/c I don't trust this rotation's high-end competitiveness or its depth. Someone like Oswalt -- or at least a healthy Oswalt -- would make me feel a lot better.