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View Full Version : Arroyo and sample size



Jdattilo
03-12-2012, 08:43 PM
I understand the small sample size argument, but Bronson was beyond awful today. After his last start, he was talking about feeling good, and he had good velocity. Today he couldn't get anybody out and said he didn't feel lively. It's just spring, but today was concerning, especially coupled with his self-described subpar physical state. Anybody hear anything about his velocity today?

The Rage
03-12-2012, 09:26 PM
For all of Bronson's "better velocity" statements, he was only hitting 87-88 mostly his first start. He hit a pitch at 90 and then it was "I am back!!!".

He needs to sit at 89-90 like he did in 09-10 to get results.

[deleted]
03-12-2012, 11:06 PM
I've been saying all winter that Arroyo is a grave danger to this team. Even if he bounces halfway back from his abysmal season in 2011, he'd still be an awful pitcher. I'll go on record as saying that if the Reds fail in 2012, it will be because of starting pitching, primarily an insistence on sticking with Arroyo.

...But it's only a spring game. If the Reds are totally set on letting Arroyo pitch every fifth game (and it certainly seems they are) then we'll need a bit more time to see if he can consistently get his velocity back up and avoid the homerun. So far it looks like he can not. I really hope I am wrong on this one, but things aren't looking great at this point.

Jdattilo
03-13-2012, 12:00 AM
It will be interesting to see how things progress as pitchers begin working deeper into games.

It is Spring, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't start seeing some progress and improvement.

If after three more starts we're still having these discussions, you can count me as worried.

Bronson returning to even league average would be huge. We shall see.

texasdave
03-13-2012, 03:14 AM
Even if Bronson keeps getting lit up like a fatty at 420, I can see Dusty sending him out there every 5th day until at least the All-Star Break. See Gomes, Jonny. Keeping my fingers crossed that 2010 Arroyo shows up here real soon.

bounty37h
03-13-2012, 10:39 AM
I would normally agree Dave, but hoping with it being Dustys contract year and likely a short rope with all the FO has done, I would think he wont be as willing to let slides continue as long.

will5979
03-13-2012, 10:41 AM
Even though he is one of my favorite Reds I'm worried to death about Bronson...it may be time for him to get some spot starts and use him in LRP.

As of right now I would like to the rotation as

Cueto
Latos
Leake
Bailey
Chapman/Arroyo

If I were a manager I would feel confident that this rotation could win the NL Central.

will5979
03-13-2012, 10:44 AM
I can see Dusty sending him out there every 5th day until at least the All-Star Break. See Gomes, Jonny.

Corey f'n Patterson
Willy f'n Taveras
2011 Jonny f'n Gomes
Edgar f'n Renteria

:bang:

and I hope and pray I wont be saying Bronson f'n Arroyo, unless of course I'm saying it in the context of Motley f'n Crue!

brm7675
03-13-2012, 11:59 AM
1. ST games for pitchers are not a good tool to determine abilities. Many times they are working on certain pitches and such.

2. Bronson is going to have a strong year I feel.

3. People need to just forget about Chapman in the rotation and let him learn at AAA, he is not anywhere near ready to go out and give the Reds 6-7 innings every 5th day.

nux fan
03-13-2012, 12:29 PM
I am glad you "feel" that arroyo is going to have a strong year

have you ever heard of statistical analysis he is the worst pitcher in the league, more relevant than what you feel

will5979
03-13-2012, 12:37 PM
I am glad you "feel" that arroyo is going to have a strong year

have you ever heard of statistical analysis he is the worst pitcher in the league, more relevant than what you feel

Lighten up Francis, geez it ain't even opening day yet and everyone is already b!tchin' at each other.

nux fan
03-13-2012, 12:58 PM
wow do you like Jeff Francis

will5979
03-13-2012, 02:24 PM
wow do you like Jeff Francis

Jeezus H. Christ...

Watch the movie Stripes, youngan.

brm7675
03-13-2012, 03:34 PM
I am glad you "feel" that arroyo is going to have a strong year

have you ever heard of statistical analysis he is the worst pitcher in the league, more relevant than what you feel

Is your analysis based off 1 season or his entire career? I am betting it is off one season, that last one where is was sick all year...

[deleted]
03-13-2012, 05:21 PM
Is your analysis based off 1 season or his entire career? I am betting it is off one season, that last one where is was sick all year...

Can't speak for nux fan, but my analysis is based off the fact that last season, sick or not, he was the absolute worst starting pitcher in all of baseball, and it wasn't even close.

Plus the fact he's been trending down these past few years.

Plus the fact he hasn't been better than 'decent' in about five.

Plus the fact that he's looked equally as abysmal so far this spring, and his velocity is gone.

Plus the fact that essentially every professional projection system predicts him as being very ineffective in 2012.

Plus, I guess, I 'feel' he's going to have a weak season, ;).

brm7675
03-13-2012, 06:11 PM
;2545156']Can't speak for nux fan, but my analysis is based off the fact that last season, sick or not, he was the absolute worst starting pitcher in all of baseball, and it wasn't even close.

Plus the fact he's been trending down these past few years.

Plus the fact he hasn't been better than 'decent' in about five.

Plus the fact that he's looked equally as abysmal so far this spring, and his velocity is gone.

Plus the fact that essentially every professional projection system predicts him as being very ineffective in 2012.

Plus, I guess, I 'feel' he's going to have a weak season, ;).


1. He was bad last year because he was sick
2. I believe his 2010 season was one of his best overall season so how is he trending down.
3. He has had 2 ST outings, one good one bad. Plus you can tell very little from ST numbers.
4. At what point in his career did he have velocity? His ability is in location, location, location.
5. Well if the if the baseball numbers guys are right then the reds are screwed because they don't have us even winning the division...thankfully we actually play the games...

texasdave
03-13-2012, 06:34 PM
1. He was bad last year because he was sick
2. I believe his 2010 season was one of his best overall season so how is he trending down.
3. He has had 2 ST outings, one good one bad. Plus you can tell very little from ST numbers.
4. At what point in his career did he have velocity? His ability is in location, location, location.
5. Well if the if the baseball numbers guys are right then the reds are screwed because they don't have us even winning the division...thankfully we actually play the games...

1. Maybe. Maybe not.
2. He did have a good 2010.
3. True.
4. If velocity doesn't mean anything to Bronson, then why was he so concerned over the winter about regaining his velocity? And, if velocity doesn't mean anything to Bronson, then why was he so crappy in 2011 when his velocity was down? IMO, if Bronson's fastball is in the mid-80s his numbers will be ugly. If he is touching 90 regularly he will be okay.

[deleted]
03-13-2012, 06:44 PM
1. He was bad last year because he was sick
2. I believe his 2010 season was one of his best overall season so how is he trending down.
3. He has had 2 ST outings, one good one bad. Plus you can tell very little from ST numbers.
4. At what point in his career did he have velocity? His ability is in location, location, location.
5. Well if the if the baseball numbers guys are right then the reds are screwed because they don't have us even winning the division...thankfully we actually play the games...

1. You believe it was ONLY by virtue of him being sick that he was the worst pitcher in the league? What if the effects of his illness leave some lingering issues? If he only bounces 50-75% back, he'd still be atrocious.

2. His 2010 season is not really one of his best. He was worth less than 2 wins (below league average), had one of the worst K/BB ratios of his career, and still gave up homers at a silly rate. He had a shiny 17 wins, but also had a run support average of 6.51 and fantastic defense behind him. If he can do that again, however, we'd all be thrilled. I mention he's trending down because his strikeout rates, groundball rates, and health have fallen each of the last three years.

3. Of course spring games are to be taken with a grain of salt, but they aren't meaningless. And a known veteran with a guaranteed roster spot like Arroyo isn't using these starts to try new pitches or anything. He's only rehabbing his arm and trying to get back to being effective. So far he has failed.

4. I'm not talking about velocity relative to other pitchers, I'm talking relative to himself. A seemingly small bit of speed can make a world of difference, even for someone who isn't considered a strikeout pitcher. If Arroyo's fastball sits around 86 like it did last year, he'll keep getting hammered (like he did last year). If he can get it closer to 90, he'll have more success. Arroyo himself has said that if he can't get his velocity back up, he may well be finished as a major league pitcher.

5. The projections of Bill James, ZiPS, etc. certainly aren't perfect, but they have a history of relative success and accuracy. If you're trying to make this into another tired "well why don't we just let the computers play the season" argument, stop, because it's old. What I'm saying is that having a 'feeling' about a player is fine and all, but you can't ignore mounds of evidence that are pointing the other direction. I want Arroyo to defy expectations and succeed as much as any Reds fan, but I'm a realist, too. I don't want to set myself up for crippling disappointment, and it's looking more and more like anticipating Arroyo to reach back into his prime years is doing just that.

texasdave
03-13-2012, 06:49 PM
4. I'm not talking about velocity relative to other pitchers, I'm talking relative to himself. A seemingly small bit of speed can make a world of difference, even for someone who isn't considered a strikeout pitcher. If Arroyo's fastball sits around 86 like it did last year, he'll keep getting hammered (like he did last year). If he can get it closer to 90, he'll have more success. Arroyo himself has said that if he can't get his velocity back up, he may well be finished as a major league pitcher.

To me this is the main issue. Arroyo's supporters say he was sick all year and that is why his velocity is down. And then they turn right around and say velocity doesn't matter with Bronson.

It most certainly does. And Bronson knows it. He even admits it. Doesn't matter. Bronson's backers know him better than he knows himself.

brm7675
03-13-2012, 07:53 PM
I guess we will just have to wait and see. Bronson came into came according to him in the best shape he has been in a while. He also admits that he needs to work on his velocity, which is fine. I think with the offense this team has and the defenese behind him there is no reason he can't match 2010 numbers again.

smixsell
03-13-2012, 11:58 PM
Is your analysis based off 1 season or his entire career? I am betting it is off one season, that last one where is was sick all year...

Spot on.

Mutaman
03-14-2012, 12:35 AM
3. People need to just forget about Chapman in the rotation and let him learn at AAA, he is not anywhere near ready to go out and give the Reds 6-7 innings every 5th day.

I hope Walt didn't make the moves he made because he's pointing for the future. The future is now! If Chapman can't go 5-6 innings than put him in the bullpen. He's not going to do us any good at Louisville and he has too much talent not to contribute NOW in some capacity. Lets go for it all this year.

lidspinner
03-14-2012, 06:16 AM
I guess we will just have to wait and see. Bronson came into came according to him in the best shape he has been in a while. He also admits that he needs to work on his velocity, which is fine. I think with the offense this team has and the defenese behind him there is no reason he can't match 2010 numbers again.



and he would make the 167th player to say that this year. I say all players should show up to spring training in the best shape they have even been in, but we know that dont happen and we know being in the best shape they have ever been in usually equates to zilch...last time I heard a guy rave about his fitness level in ST then actually go out and be productive was a long time ago, I quit reading into that crap...everyone says they are in the best shape........Fact is Bronson needs to hit 88-90 on his fastball or he will not be effective....he is not Greg Maddux with location, so he needs to rely on other ways to get guys out than just location.....I heard Dusty once say that Bronsons best asset was that he can get a guy to fly out or ground out almost at will....its just sometimes that ball goes over the fence or finds a hole...Bronson does have the uncanny ability to get a guy to make an out based on just hitting his corners and changing speeds on every pitch. he might throw you a 90 MPH fastball then throw you a 85 MPH fastball out on low and corner.......the difference here is if he cant touch 90 then everyone is going to sit on red and tee off when that fastball comes in over the plate, even the weakest of hitters will catch up to it....just saying....Bronson is about as done as done can be in my opinion...I hope he proves me wrong, I will eat crow.

nux fan
03-14-2012, 10:42 AM
dream on what are you his personal doctor he stunk because he stunk he did stink, does stink and will stink

brm7675
03-14-2012, 01:10 PM
I hope Walt didn't make the moves he made because he's pointing for the future. The future is now! If Chapman can't go 5-6 innings than put him in the bullpen. He's not going to do us any good at Louisville and he has too much talent not to contribute NOW in some capacity. Lets go for it all this year.

Why is the future "NOW". This team is young and has a bright future ahead for the next 5-7 years. Let Chapman mature in AAA this season then he steps into the rotation next year. He is not needed in the bullpen this year.

Mutaman
03-14-2012, 01:23 PM
Why is the future "NOW". This team is young and has a bright future ahead for the next 5-7 years. Let Chapman mature in AAA this season then he steps into the rotation next year. He is not needed in the bullpen this year.

No BP after 2012, no Votto after 2013, 1/2 the farm system traded for Latos-what do you think Walt was doing over the winter? Chapman's mature enough.

DGullett35
03-14-2012, 01:28 PM
Arroyo needs to be this teams 5th starter. However hes probably going to be the 3rd. I think he will put up fine numbers as a 5th starter. The guy is smart enough and knows how to pitch and he finally seems healthy. Hes going to give up home runs guys lets face it. As long as he wins 10 to 12 games Im happy. I really want him to be in that 5th spot tho

The Rotation if I was Dusty
1-Cueto
2-Latos
3-Leake
4-Bailey
5-Arroyo

Chapman gets brought up the second half of the year and dominates just like David Price did in '08(Crossing my fingers on this one)

texasdave
03-14-2012, 01:43 PM
No BP after 2012, no Votto after 2013, 1/2 the farm system traded for Latos-what do you think Walt was doing over the winter? Chapman's mature enough.

Agreed. It should be all hands on deck for the next two years or as long as Votto is with the club.

brm7675
03-14-2012, 01:56 PM
No BP after 2012, no Votto after 2013, 1/2 the farm system traded for Latos-what do you think Walt was doing over the winter? Chapman's mature enough.

BP is replaceable without much problem there is no reason to think Votto can't be signed if Bob really wants him. Chapman is no where near able to go SP length in a game, it takes time to build up that kind of arm strength. This team is pretty well positioned for the next 5-7 years.

brm7675
03-14-2012, 01:57 PM
Agreed. It should be all hands on deck for the next two years or as long as Votto is with the club.

votto could be here for the next 7-10 years, Bob has the monies, the question is does he want to spend it and I think the answer is yes. Plus, have both the Cards and Brewers droped after losing their power 1st basemen? Hell the Cards are picked to win the division and many have the Brewers finishing second and us 3rd this year. Losing Albert and Prince have not diminised either of those teams that much...

Mutaman
03-14-2012, 07:16 PM
BP is replaceable without much problem.

Right, I hear Pookey Reese is rested and ready to go. If not, we'll just go out and get another golden glover who hits .300. They're readily available. I hear that the Yankees would love to give us Cano.

Mutaman
03-14-2012, 07:17 PM
Agreed. It should be all hands on deck for the next two years or as long as Votto is with the club.

It really isn't that complicated, is it?

brm7675
03-14-2012, 07:29 PM
Right, I hear Pookey Reese is rested and ready to go. If not, we'll just go out and get another golden glover who hits .300. They're readily available. I hear that the Yankees would love to give us Cano.

Who is easier to replace...BP or Joey?

jwmann2
03-14-2012, 07:46 PM
I understand the small sample size argument, but Bronson was beyond awful today. After his last start, he was talking about feeling good, and he had good velocity. Today he couldn't get anybody out and said he didn't feel lively. It's just spring, but today was concerning, especially coupled with his self-described subpar physical state. Anybody hear anything about his velocity today?

They're in spring training for a reason. To shake off the rust. Still 3 more weeks until Opening Day. No need to worry in how Bronson looks now or in May even. There are 162 games in a season. A long way to go.

Mutaman
03-14-2012, 11:51 PM
Who is easier to replace...BP or Joey?

What does that have to do with your statement that "BP is replaceable without much problem"?

Nathan
03-15-2012, 01:47 AM
No BP after 2012, no Votto after 2013, 1/2 the farm system traded for Latos-what do you think Walt was doing over the winter? Chapman's mature enough.

Jesus Christ, what would you have said if they didn't do anything this off season? "We were terrible last year, and we are sitting on all of these prospects. Why don't we trade some to improve our team?" Some people are so impossible to please, why bother even attempting? Sit back, relax, and enjoy the show. Since you are so fickle, it won't matter what the outcome is, you still will be disappointed by something. If they go 173-0 throughout the regular season and postseason, will you still find something to complain about? Will the pitchers have to have pitch 173 perfect games for you to be satisfied? What will it take? I'll tell you this much, and I'm no psychic, neither of those are going to happen, so, keep complaining.

brm7675
03-15-2012, 11:05 AM
What does that have to do with your statement that "BP is replaceable without much problem"?

Because you are not going to keep both, the Reds have possible replacements already in the farm system to take over for BP and could match his present performance, whom do we have in the minors to take over for Votto? Also finding a good 2nd basemen on the open market or via trade like how we got Phillips is easier then replacing an MVP first basemen.

bounty37h
03-15-2012, 12:25 PM
Who is easier to replace...BP or Joey?

The tricky part to that is Votto may have to be replaced, BPO doesn't want to.

Mutaman
03-15-2012, 01:20 PM
Because you are not going to keep both, the Reds have possible replacements already in the farm system to take over for BP and could match his present performance, whom do we have in the minors to take over for Votto? .

Who is this "possible replacement already in the farm system" who will come up, hit .300 and win the Golden Glove?

texasdave
03-15-2012, 01:27 PM
If the Reds actually had someone in the farm system that could replace Phillips' productivity they would have never exercised his 12 million dollar option. Let's see now you get the same productivity for either 12 million dollars or roughly half a million dollars. I am pretty sure a small-market team is going to take the latter option. It makes no sense to pay Phillips 12 million when they can pay some prospect 1/24th that amount and get the same results. Then they could sock that 12 million away into the Joey Votto slush fund or buy themselves a pretty handy starting pitcher or maybe a solid middle-of-the-order bat. The Reds exercised that option because second basemen as valuable as Brandon Phillips are few and far between.

brm7675
03-15-2012, 01:40 PM
If the Reds actually had someone in the farm system that could replace Phillips' productivity they would have never exercised his 12 million dollar option. Let's see now you get the same productivity for either 12 million dollars or roughly half a million dollars. I am pretty sure a small-market team is going to take the latter option. It makes no sense to pay Phillips 12 million when they can pay some prospect 1/24th that amount and get the same results. Then they could sock that 12 million away into the Joey Votto slush fund or buy themselves a pretty handy starting pitcher or maybe a solid middle-of-the-order bat. The Reds exercised that option because second basemen as valuable as Brandon Phillips are few and far between.

Brandon is on the downside of his career, his numbers have peaked and to give him a deal in the 4-5 year range is just plain stupid. Right now Phillips is in the top 5 of 2nd basemen, however with each passing year that will decline. In another year or 2 we could see Hamilton moved over to 2nd, and while he might not hit .300 he will bring other things to the table. Again replacing an aging 2nd basemen is much easier then replacing a MVP first basemen in his prime.

Krawhitham
03-16-2012, 01:14 PM
Right, I hear Pookey Reese is rested and ready to go. If not, we'll just go out and get another golden glover who hits .300. They're readily available. I hear that the Yankees would love to give us Cano.

He is not a .300 hitter, he pulled himself from the last game so his average would not drop back below .300

He is a career .272 hitter with just a career OBP of.322

Baseball averages a .065 increase in OBP from AVG. BP is .050 for his career & .053 last season

Other Reds last season

Votto .107
Bruce .085
Stubbs .078
Hanigan .089

The Glove is great everything is very easy to replace