View Full Version : Fangraphs WAR Predictions

03-13-2012, 04:26 AM
Recently, Fangraphs ran a series of articles in which they gave their position-by-position predictions on how each of the 30 ML clubs would fare at each position. Here is a chart and cumulative total of how each of the NL Central teams did.

STL 5.0 3.0 3.0 3.5 3.5 6.0 3.0 4.5 13.5 4.0 49.0
CIN 4.0 6.0 5.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 3.0 4.5 8.5 5.0 43.5
MIL 2.5 1.5 3.5 3.0 1.5 6.0 4.0 3.5 13.0 4.0 42.5
CHI 3.5 2.0 3.0 2.0 4.0 1.5 4.0 3.0 8.5 1.5 33.0
PIT 1.5 1.0 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.5 5.0 2.5 7.0 3.0 31.0
HOU 2.0 1.0 3.0 1.5 3.0 3.0 1.5 2.0 8.5 2.0 27.5

NLC 18.5 14.5 20.5 15.5 17.0 21.5 20.5 20.0 59.0 19.5 226.5

If these predictions have any validity attached to them the Cardinals are going to win the division by a handful of games, with the Reds and the Brewers fighting it out for second.

St. Louis' main edge is in starting pitching, where they have a 5.0 WAR edge. This underscores the importance of Bronson Arroyo's bounceback as he was slotted at -.5 WAR. The right half of the Reds' infield, Votto and Phillips was a huge Cincinnati advantage. While St. Louis had a strong edge at LF and SP.

Huge gap between the top and bottom halves of the division, according to Fangraphs.

I thought it was interesting that, despite hearing how important pitching is all the time, Pitcher WAR (SP and RP - 78.5) combined for only about 30 percent of the Total WAR (226.5). I would think it should be a greater percentage. IMO, that indicates a weakness in this particular method of evaluating players. Also, outfielders tend to rate higher than infielders.

Let's hope Fangraphs/WAR is wrong. We shall see.

03-13-2012, 11:03 AM
Looking at these numbers, we really need a big year from Arroyo and/or Bailey.

03-13-2012, 12:42 PM
I think we can all agree that if St. Louis outpitches us by 5 WAR, we are in big trouble.

Do this numbers consider ballpark at all?

03-13-2012, 12:55 PM
War! What is it good for? Absolutly nothing. What a crock 'O crap that chart is, and the method to arrive at it. SO many variables are ignored. Just rediculas.

03-13-2012, 01:22 PM
I'm good with WAR.

I also don't agree with their pitching staff being 5 WAR better than ours, and our CF is ranked too low...but other than that it should be fine. It says pretty much what we all know -- the top 3 spots are probably interchangeable this year in the NLC. I think the Reds should have the slight edge, but meh.

03-13-2012, 03:55 PM
Seems about in line with what we can expect in real life: our pitching is going to have to play well beyond expectations to dethrone the Cards, and Milwaukee isn't going anywhere.

03-13-2012, 08:04 PM
How does StL RP get a 4.0?

03-13-2012, 08:44 PM
How does StL RP get a 4.0?Im guessing that it's the emrgence of Motte and the loss of Ryan Franklin, I'm not sure of any other additions or subtractions

03-13-2012, 10:38 PM
Nice post.

Have to concur that the Cards' starting pitching seems more than a few wins better than Cincy's, at least on paper.

03-13-2012, 11:45 PM
Yeah, forget any actual raw statistics out there that they could have cited to show their production! These guys are worth a lot of imaginary wins as decided by a virgin in between Magic The Gathering sessions! That's all that matters!!!

03-14-2012, 01:01 AM
War! What is it good for? Absolutly nothing. What a crock 'O crap that chart is, and the method to arrive at it. SO many variables are ignored. Just rediculas.

WAR usually has SOME value, but in this case I tend to agree with you.