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Nathan
03-16-2012, 12:02 AM
Realistically, what are your expectations for the 2012 season? What would be the ceiling of this team? Floor?

For me, the ceiling would obviously be World Series champs. They truly have the players in place to accomplish this.

Floor would be third place behind the Cardinals and Brewers. The rest of the division is probably so far behind. Anything less than that and a .500 record would be a major failure.

Just about right? I'd say a playoff team. You can never discount the luck factor that all teams have to win in order to be W.S. champions. Ergo, it should never be expected.

texasdave
03-16-2012, 12:10 AM
I think just about everything would have to break right for this team to win the World Series. I guess it could happen.
Realistically, I am looking for 92 wins. Will that win the division? Who knows?. If they win the division I have them winning at least one playoff series. If they get in via the wildcard then just flip a coin to see if they make it through. Bud Selig is a fool and the one-game crapshoot is a terrible idea.
If a starter or two go down it could be a long season. No confidence in either Arroyo or Francis. Is Chapman ready? Good health by the starters. Knock on wood.

[deleted]
03-16-2012, 12:49 AM
Realistically, I think our starting pitching leaves us a bit behind St. Louis and right around where Milwaukee will play. I wouldn't be surprised if we made the playoffs, but I think our lack of depth in the back end of the rotation will leave us with an uphill battle. I don't think the numbers sell Latos-Cueto-Leake matching up with Wainwright-Carpenter-Garcia or Greinke-Gallardo-Marcum yet.

With expanded wild cards and three big divisional punching bags, though, our chances are still closer to 'good' than 'bad'. And postseasons are by nature very volatile, so once we're in we have a definite shot.

Jefferson24
03-16-2012, 12:57 AM
I think this team is too inconstant for much success. My guess is just at or over .500, no playoffs. Too many issues remain issues heading into the season.

Jamz
03-16-2012, 03:10 AM
If we can win the division we do have a realistic shot at the WS. Our line-up is easily one of the best in the league and we're near the top at generating runs. Latos and Cueto are legit pitchers and you really only need two great pitchers to win the WS if you can get that far. We also have one of the better bullpens in the league now.

That said our rotation is easily the worst part of our team and might be worth giving up a significant haul to get another good pitcher (Wandy Rodriguez? Anibal Sanchez? David Price?)

Red Raindog
03-16-2012, 06:59 AM
I see a winning record and a decent chance at the playoffs.

We have a good bullpen, an excellent defense and a park that produces offense.

We're short on players with plate coverage, starting pitchers and we still have Dusty.

Jdattilo
03-16-2012, 11:56 AM
Wish we had the chips to get another starter. We don't.

I just hope you seasoned spring training observers are right about results in Arizona, because if the results and trends mean anything, the Reds could be in trouble.

Then again, Leake was decent last year and might well progress. Chapman has looked good. Cueto and Latos are relatively proven with continued consistency supported by the projection systems. I just see Bailey and Arroyo has seriously weak links.

Krawhitham
03-16-2012, 12:52 PM
Realistically, what are your expectations for the 2012 season? What would be the ceiling of this team? Floor?

For me, the ceiling would obviously be World Series champs. They truly have the players in place to accomplish this.

Floor would be third place behind the Cardinals and Brewers. The rest of the division is probably so far behind. Anything less than that and a .500 record would be a major failure.

Just about right? I'd say a playoff team. You can never discount the luck factor that all teams have to win in order to be W.S. champions. Ergo, it should never be expected.


I know it is just spring training but it does not look like we have the pitching to beat the Brew Crew or the Cards. Plus the team is striking out at world record rates. Maybe we have slow arms and it a couple more weeks they will start looking good, but striking out 10+ times a game is not going to get it done.

It might be time to replace Brook Jacoby

redsfanmia
03-16-2012, 08:16 PM
I thought for a while the Reds were going to be good, but now I think they will be just ok, 80-82 ok.

redsfanmia
03-16-2012, 08:18 PM
If we can win the division we do have a realistic shot at the WS. Our line-up is easily one of the best in the league and we're near the top at generating runs. Latos and Cueto are legit pitchers and you really only need two great pitchers to win the WS if you can get that far. We also have one of the better bullpens in the league now.

That said our rotation is easily the worst part of our team and might be worth giving up a significant haul to get another good pitcher (Wandy Rodriguez? Anibal Sanchez? David Price?)

I just don't think our line up is one of the best in the league, I see a team who's stat line is better than reality on offense.

NeilHamburger
03-16-2012, 09:26 PM
83-79

I think the offense will be very inconsistent. I remember reading on MLBtraderumors how the Reds scored the 2nd most runs in the NL, but they did it in a very inconsistent manner, and were actually held to 2 or fewer runs more often then many teams who didn't score as many runs overall.

I think Mesoraco may struggle offensively as a rookie, and it's overlooked by some how good a year with the bat Ramon Hernandez had last year. I think Cozart will be an improvement, but he projects as yet another player whose OPS is driven more by slugging then OBP. Heisey, Stubbs, Cozart, Mesoraco, Francisco, and to a degree Bruce are all similar in that respect. That's why this offseason I wanted to Reds to target a Scott Hatteberg type of player, to break up the glut of slugging driven players they seem to have. It seems that if the reds face a pitcher who is good against the above type of hitter they are pretty much shutdown.

I think the bullpen will be great. Madson and Marshall are right up there with the best 8th and 9th inning guys in baseball. Masset seems to have a 3 month stretch each year where he's almost unhittable, Bray is a good 2nd lefty option and I'm higher on Logan then most.

Starting pitching I think will be better, but there are definite question marks. Bailey, Leake and Arroyo all still have some pretty big questions surronding what their performance will be.

Like with any season, some questions will be answered positively, and some not so positively. For the Reds to realistically contend they need Leake to stay where he was last year, and one of Bailey or Arroyo to step up, and one of Cozart, Mesoraco, Heisey/Ludwick to have a very good year.

Jamz
03-16-2012, 10:55 PM
I just don't think our line up is one of the best in the league, I see a team who's stat line is better than reality on offense.

When our line-up is firing it's among the best in the league.

Phillips and Votto are the models of consistency in the league. Rolen, when healthy, is awesome. Stubbs has the potential to be a 20/30 - 30/40 guy if he can put it together. He's most likely going to come closer to his 2010 numbers this year. Bruce has improved his numbers every year in the league and has looked awesome in spring training. Cozart has also been impressive and steady since being called up to the majors.

Phillips - Cozart - Votto - Rolen - Bruce - Stubbs - Hanigan/Mesoraco - Ludwick/Heisey

It's a very solid line-up...top 5 in the league in run production this year you can book that. I'm very high on how Stubbs has looked this preseason...he's finding his confidence and it's his 27 year old season. Expect big things.

redsfanmia
03-17-2012, 02:52 PM
When our line-up is firing it's among the best in the league.

They are one of the best line ups in the league for 60 games, average for 40 games and terrible for 60 games.

webbbj
03-18-2012, 03:09 AM
i expect a division title and atleast a playoff series win. i am a very strong believer in this team, more than any reds team i have ever seen.

DGullett35
03-18-2012, 02:46 PM
89-73 and a Central Division title. I think the make it to the LCS and get beat in 6.

Expectations should be high as the front office has declared going "All In". Health will be key as it always is, and there are going to be some guys that are going to have to have consistent seasons. (Stubbs, and/or Heisey will have to play big) (Cueto will have to prove he is the #1, and I think Bailey will be key for the rotation) JMO

Nathan
03-18-2012, 06:52 PM
They are one of the best line ups in the league for 60 games, average for 40 games and terrible for 60 games.

So, what would the goal be for this team to be an "elite" offense? Bring down the "terrible" games to maybe 40, and raise the "elite" games to 60? How does one quantify that?

Define "Best"
Define "Average"
Define "Terrible"

redsfanmia
03-19-2012, 06:54 PM
The Reds scored 2 or fewer runs in 45 games by my count. The offense needs to be effective when they are not hitting the ball out of the park to be elite IMO.