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Dom Heffner
03-16-2012, 12:30 PM
Quick question for our experts:

I have the 5th pick in a snake draft, 10 team league. Points, head to head, mixed league, just starting to do keepers this year.

I will have the 16th pick in the second round, and that is precisely the moment the talent drops, in my opinion. I'm looking at Kershaw, Pedroia, Halladay at that point. Which, I'm going to be honest, doesn't get me excited.

Am I crazy...for looking hard at taking Giancarlo Stanton there? 22 years old...for a keeper league.

He should be there at 25, but again, everyone knows this is a keeper league and he could get snagged in the low 20s.

Am I nuts? Advice appreciated.

nmculbreth
03-16-2012, 01:16 PM
It's not insane. Over the past few year it's become harder to find legitimate power hitters, so being able to add a potential 40+ home run bat is pretty good value, particularly when you consider that Stanton is just 22 years old.

My only reservation, other than the fact that I think Pedroia is very good value at #16 overall, is that you're playing in a points league which puts a dent in Stanton's value. I guess it comes down to your league's scoring format. If strikeouts are penalized at -.5 or more, I think you'd be better off looking elsewhere and trying to snag Stanton later.

Dom Heffner
03-16-2012, 01:20 PM
It's not insane. Over the past few year it's become harder to find legitimate power hitters, so being able to add a potential 40+ home run bat is pretty good value, particularly when you consider that Stanton is just 22 years old.

My only reservation, other than the fact that I think Pedroia is very good value at #16 overall, is that you're playing in a points league which puts a dent in Stanton's value. I guess it comes down to your league's scoring format. If strikeouts are penalized at -.5 or more, I think you'd be better off looking elsewhere and trying to snag Stanton later.

No penalty for strikeouts.

But the more I look at it- maybe I'm better off getting Pedroia and then I can get either Stanton or McCutchen or Hamilton at 25.

That 25% strikeout rate is a bit concerning for Stanton.

Plus Plus
03-16-2012, 02:38 PM
Pedroia has super-elite contact skills, is a perennial 25/25 (or better) threat, and is still only like 28. I would love him at 16.

Dom Heffner
03-16-2012, 03:21 PM
Pedroia has super-elite contact skills, is a perennial 25/25 (or better) threat, and is still only like 28. I would love him at 16.

Great point. I'm hoping he will be there.

If both he and Kershaw are there, it will be hard, though I'm not one to take pitchers early. Kershaw being so young and so good, though are making me think about it.

You guys are making me feel better about Pedroia though. I just got kinda excited with Stanton, but the more I read about him, the less i like him at 16.

Redsfaithful
03-16-2012, 08:12 PM
It is hard to "profit" on Stanton at 16. At that point he pretty much has to hit 40 HRs and take a big step forward for you to get pick 16 value out of him. While someone like Pedroia gives you value there just by continuing to do his usual. That's not even getting into position scarcity.

I do think power is dropping off lately, but in a 10 team league there should be plenty of power later.

I prefer getting balanced guys early and Pedroia qualifies at a fairly scarce position. Keep thinking of it as pairs. Stanton + ??? in the 3rd round vs. Pedroia + McCutcheon/Hamilton/Stanton. Which do you think you come out ahead? Just your preference, and it being a points league kind of complicates it vs 5x5 so you have to pay attention to that.

I'd probably avoid Kershaw in a 10 team league at that spot. In a bigger league I'd consider him there, but the edge you get at P is less in a smaller league because there's more to go around. There should be plenty of elite pitchers still available in rounds 4-8. Guys like Ian Kennedy, Bumgarner, Shields, Strasburg, Hamels, Grienke, Price, Weaver might even still be there at 4. That's a lot of talent that could get you close to Kershaw production.

Dom Heffner
03-17-2012, 10:47 AM
I love it, RF.

The more I look at Pedroia, the more you are right.

Even if he isn't there, someone else will be.

Guys like Stanton- and let's face it, Jay Bruce- who strike out that much are prone to long slumps. I'll have Stanton/Holliday/Hamilton/Granderson/McCutchen to choose from at 25.

I just really wanted Stanton on a keeper leafue, but I have to refuse to reach this year, at least until I get to round 4 or so.

Tornon
03-17-2012, 11:11 AM
Well, the other argument is that fantasy baseball is supposed to be fun. Just because something might not be the best move strategy wise doesn't mean you are forbidden from doing it. If you really want Stanton on your team, feel free to go for it

Johnny Footstool
03-17-2012, 01:55 PM
Pitchers are generally more volatile than hitters. I'd snag Pedroia over Kershaw.

Dom Heffner
03-17-2012, 07:03 PM
Well, the other argument is that fantasy baseball is supposed to be fun. Just because something might not be the best move strategy wise doesn't mean you are forbidden from doing it. If you really want Stanton on your team, feel free to go for it

This is the argument I make to myself. And I'll end up with a fun pick at five. Unless Votto is gone, he's mine, regardless of who's there.

Dom Heffner
03-17-2012, 07:04 PM
If Mike Stanton didn't have a 25% k rate, I'd feel better about him. That k rate is a slump waiting to happen.

Dom Heffner
03-17-2012, 07:17 PM
Well, the other argument is that fantasy baseball is supposed to be fun. Just because something might not be the best move strategy wise doesn't mean you are forbidden from doing it. If you really want Stanton on your team, feel free to go for it


Pitchers are generally more volatile than hitters. I'd snag Pedroia over Kershaw.

In our league last year, Kershaw was almost 20 points better than Pedroia. Having said that, I think pitching is deep enough to wait. Those guys are ticking time bombs anyway, with injuries.

Dom Heffner
03-17-2012, 07:18 PM
That's 200 not 20 points.

Captain Hook
03-17-2012, 08:40 PM
One thing about keeper leagues.Consider how likely it is that it will still be going on or that you'll still be involved five years from now.There's been a couple I've been in that I've went too young early on with the future in mind only to have the league fall apart after a few years.If your team doesn't do well and you decide you want to go young there will be plenty of rookies available come Sept.I'd draft to win at all cost the first year.Good luck!

Dom Heffner
03-18-2012, 12:28 AM
Great advice. I'm going Votto or Adrian Gonzalez and then Pedroia. If he isn't there then that would mean that Fielder or Cargo fell, which I would probably take. I would take Kinsler or Reyes but owning those guys is not for the weak stomached.