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View Full Version : Tracking Reds Roster Cuts Down to 25



Kc61
03-18-2012, 12:57 PM
I read that cuts start today. It's always interesting to see how the 25 man roster develops with injuries, surprises etc.

Maybe this thread can be the place for such information.

FWIW, I see very few spots available.

Mesoraco and Hanigan should make it.
Bruce, Stubbs, Ludwick, and Heisey.
Votto, Phillips, Cozart, Rolen, Valdez, Cairo.
Last position spot probably Francisco.
Latos, Cueto, Bailey, Arroyo, Leake.
Madson, Marshall, Lecure, Masset, Bray, Ondrusek, Arredondo.
Probably Chapman to AAA, unless an injury.

But there are usually surprises.

First cuts should be mostly non-roster guys and obvious minor leaguers. But who knows.

Anyone who learns the cuts, please post.

mth123
03-18-2012, 01:17 PM
Thanks for starting this thread. I was thinking of starting something similar.

I hope today's cuts are deep. The team is about to start its fourth time through the rotation and starters need to start going 5+ and relievers need to work more frequently. I hope 10 to 12 pitchers go today. In the past 2 years, I think the Reds were too fair to some of the bubble guys and the guys we needed to count on didn't get enough innings in Spring. I think poor pitching early in the year was partially from not being ready or getting prepared to go deeper into games. Assumimg the three injured relievers are back, I'd like to see the Reds keep the 12 mentioned along with Chapman, Francis, Zavada, Tomko and maybe Brackman and Judy for now. That would still leave 6 extra pitchers in camp. Time for the rest to go to the minor league camp while the big boys get ready.

On the position side, its less urgent, but a couple of the catchers can go for sure. They can keep guys like Gregorious, Soto, Lutz and Rodriguez a little longer, but I hope they are down to just 3 or 4 extras once they come back from the off day on Wednesday. They can invite a few back for the split squad on the 24th, but I'd like to see the roster close to set by the last week.

Kc61
03-18-2012, 01:30 PM
According to the Reds Official website, the forty man roster now is 18 pitchers, 2 catchers, 15 infielders, 5 outfielders. The relatively few outfielders could help Phipps survive for now.

They list 18 non-roster invitees, including 12 pitchers. While these non-roster lists are often imprecise, if true, there are 30 pitchers currently in camp. I agree with mth that we should see about ten of those sent to minor league camp today or shortly thereafter.

The Reds are always a bit slow in sending guys down and like to have a lot of players for split squad days.

mth123
03-18-2012, 01:52 PM
According to the Reds Official website, the forty man roster now is 18 pitchers, 2 catchers, 15 infielders, 5 outfielders. The relatively few outfielders could help Phipps survive for now.

They list 18 non-roster invitees, including 12 pitchers. While these non-roster lists are often imprecise, if true, there are 30 pitchers currently in camp. I agree with mth that we should see about ten of those sent to minor league camp today or shortly thereafter.

The Reds are always a bit slow in sending guys down and like to have a lot of players for split squad days.

They do have 30 pitchers. By Thursday, I'd like to see the position guys down to the 13 favorites along with Frazier, Janish, Phipps and either Miller or Navarro. Maybe Willie Harris can stay as well, but probably at Janish expense. The others can come back for the split squad (along with guys like Dorn, Vidal, Hamilton, Lamarre and others who seem to make appearances though not on the "official" 58 man spring roster). They can always bring a couple of those kids along each day, but the starting position players need to start going 9 innings and by next week at this time, back to back days.

I just think some times the guys we need get short-changed in order to give playing time to some of these long shots or kids. 2012 is time to win. Every minor thing that could make a difference should be tried and getting ready to hit the ground running for opening day is one of them.

Kc61
03-18-2012, 01:58 PM
They do have 30 pitchers. By Thursday, I'd like to see the position guys down to the 13 favorites along with Frazier, Janish, Phipps and either Miller or Navarro. Maybe Willie Harris can stay as well, but probably at Janish expense. The others can come back for the split squad (along with guys like Dorn, Vidal, Hamilton, Lamarre and others who seem to make appearances though not on the "official" 58 man spring roster). They can always bring a couple of those kids along each day, but the starting position players need to start going 9 innings and by next week at this time, back to back days.

I just think some times the guys we need get short-changed in order to give playing time to some of these long shots or kids. 2012 is time to win. Every minor thing that could make a difference should be tried and getting ready to hit the ground running for opening day is one of them.

Reds usually keep extra catchers. My guess they will keep at least four catchers until the near-end of spring training.

I don't disagree with your premise, but Reds usually have a lot of extra guys around all through spring.

Just looking over the roster, I think today you'll see a number of non-roster pitchers go down along with clear minor leaguers like, perhaps, Lotzkar, Villareal, Lutz, Negron, HRod, Soto. Maybe Gregorius.

Sometimes a guy will intrigue the Reds, so they will keep him around a bit longer. This year? Phipps, Gregorius, HRod are possible candidates.

mth123
03-18-2012, 02:11 PM
Reds usually keep extra catchers. My guess they will keep at least four catchers until the near-end of spring training.

I don't disagree with your premise, but Reds usually have a lot of extra guys around all through spring.

Just looking over the roster, I think today you'll see a number of non-roster pitchers go down along with clear minor leaguers like, perhaps, Lotzkar, Villareal, Lutz, Negron, HRod, Soto. Maybe Gregorius.

Sometimes a guy will intrigue the Reds, so they will keep him around a bit longer. This year? Phipps, Gregorius, HRod are possible candidates.

This is my hope for today;

Unconditional release: Fisher, Mahay
Option: Lotzkar, Villareal, Smith, Negron.
Reassign to Minor League Camp: Reinecke, Gallagher, Tanner, Texiera, Joseph, Christiani, Corcino, Esposito, Barnhart and Jones.

That would be 12 pitchers and 4 position players. I'd hope the low minor league position guys (Lutz, Didi, H-Rod) all go by mid-week along with Valaika and Soto and by then maybe Judy and Brackman should go as well. I think Mes needs to get more consistent ABs to see if it gets him going and more time catching the guys still here who will probably be on the staff, so I'd send one of Miller or Navarro out then as well.

This is all speculation on my part. We'll see later today.

Captain Hook
03-18-2012, 02:35 PM
Seems odd that the Reds have to release Fisher again.They just released him a few months ago and they have to do it again even though both side know he's the 7th or 8th BP guy that will probably start the season in AAA.Same thing for Corky and a few others.I know they want to give these guys a shot to get picked up by another team that could use them at the big league level but with some players you just know that it's not going to happen.I guess what I'm really saying is that I don't get why, that when a guy is signed to a minor league deal and doesn't make the big league club he has to be released.

mattfeet
03-18-2012, 02:54 PM
Optioned out were IF Kristopher Negron, IF Neftali Soto, RHP Josh Judy; IF Didi Gregorius, IF Henry Rodriguez, RHP Pedro Villarreal; IF/OF Donald Lutz and RHP Kyle Lotzkar.

Re-assigned to minor league camp C Tucker Barnhart, RHP Nick Christiani, RHP Daniel Corcino, C Brian Esposito, RHP Sean Gallagher, LHP Donnie Joseph, RHP Chad Reineke and RHP Brett Tomko.

Kc61
03-18-2012, 03:01 PM
Optioned out were IF Kristopher Negron, IF Neftali Soto, RHP Josh Judy; IF Didi Gregorius, IF Henry Rodriguez, RHP Pedro Villarreal; IF/OF Donald Lutz and RHP Kyle Lotzkar.

Re-assigned to minor league camp C Tucker Barnhart, RHP Nick Christiani, RHP Daniel Corcino, C Brian Esposito, RHP Sean Gallagher, LHP Donnie Joseph, RHP Chad Reineke and RHP Brett Tomko.

Thanks. Top group is from the 40 man roster, bottom group is from non-rosters.

Nine pitchers sent down leaving 21.

Mostly guys who clearly were headed for minor leagues and non-roster pitchers.

In addition to the expected 12 pitchers due to go north and Chapman, Reds kept Brackman, Smith (hurt I believe), Fisher, Francis, Mahay, Tanner (pitching today), Texeira, Zavada.

All of Francisco, Frazier, Janish, Valaika, Harris, Phipps - potential final spot guys - still in camp.

757690
03-18-2012, 03:07 PM
With the minor league complex on the same site as the major league one, these really are mostly bookkeeping moves. It clears out the clubhouse a bit and saves the Reds some meal money. it also gets the minor leaguers working with the coaches they will work with during tne season. But I would still expect to see some of these guys in major league games this spring.

mth123
03-18-2012, 03:09 PM
Seems odd that the Reds have to release Fisher again.They just released him a few months ago and they have to do it again even though both side know he's the 7th or 8th BP guy that will probably start the season in AAA.Same thing for Corky and a few others.I know they want to give these guys a shot to get picked up by another team that could use them at the big league level but with some players you just know that it's not going to happen.I guess what I'm really saying is that I don't get why, that when a guy is signed to a minor league deal and doesn't make the big league club he has to be released.

They DFAd him and kept him on a minor league contract. They don't need to release Fisher, I just think they should. They have a numbers problem in AAA and AA too. I've always liked Fisher, but there are about 10 guys competing for the AAA rotation and AA is mostly full. They need spots for some guys and at Fisher's age, I think he should be one let go.

Kc61
03-18-2012, 03:09 PM
With the minor league complex on the same site as the major league one, these really are mostly bookkeeping moves. It clears out the clubhouse a bit and saves the Reds some meal money. it also gets the minor leaguers working with the coaches they will work with during tne season. But I would still expect to see some of these guys in major league games this spring.

Mostly. A bit surprised to see Judy, Gallagher, and Tomko go down this early. Otherwise, really just moving minor leaguers to a different part of the complex.

mth123
03-18-2012, 03:11 PM
Optioned out were IF Kristopher Negron, IF Neftali Soto, RHP Josh Judy; IF Didi Gregorius, IF Henry Rodriguez, RHP Pedro Villarreal; IF/OF Donald Lutz and RHP Kyle Lotzkar.

Re-assigned to minor league camp C Tucker Barnhart, RHP Nick Christiani, RHP Daniel Corcino, C Brian Esposito, RHP Sean Gallagher, LHP Donnie Joseph, RHP Chad Reineke and RHP Brett Tomko.

Surprised Tomko was cut already. Also surpised Judy was cut so soon. Not sure I see the point in Keeping Texiera or Tanner around.

dougdirt
03-18-2012, 03:24 PM
They DFAd him and kept him on a minor league contract. They don't need to release Fisher, I just think they should. They have a numbers problem in AAA and AA too. I've always liked Fisher, but there are about 10 guys competing for the AAA rotation and AA is mostly full. They need spots for some guys and at Fisher's age, I think he should be one let go.

It is too soon to cut a guy like Fisher, even if you think they should. That is something you do April 5th after you are sure guys aren't injured between now and then and you actually need him.

PuffyPig
03-18-2012, 03:49 PM
[QUOTE=mth123;2546555]Surprised Tomko was cut already. /QUOTE]

He's already agreed to go to AAA and will be a potential starter down the road if we ever get that deep.

TOBTTReds
03-18-2012, 03:51 PM
Here are the cuts (the level doesn't matter a whole lot now):

WHOOPS! Missed Matt's post.

mth123
03-18-2012, 08:54 PM
It is too soon to cut a guy like Fisher, even if you think they should. That is something you do April 5th after you are sure guys aren't injured between now and then and you actually need him.

I'd agree if he was first or second in line, but I'd guess Brackman, Judy, Tomko, Francis, Smith and maybe even Christiani are ahead of him now.

PuffyPig
03-18-2012, 09:13 PM
Pending injuries, the 25 man roster is already set.

Edd Roush
03-18-2012, 11:29 PM
Pending injuries, the 25 man roster is already set.

I agree that the 25 man has probably already been settled by Walt pending injuries, but am I the only one who thinks Todd Frazier would offer more to the 2012 Reds than Wilson Valdez? Todd is a better hitter and I am not sure how much of an advantage (if any) Valdez has with the glove. Maybe this isn't the thread to discuss this, and maybe this discussion isn't very important in the first place, but if I was Walt, I would rather have Frazier than Valdez considering that Phillips and Cozart do not need defensive replacements and Frazier will hit more than Valdez.

The only other potential roster issue would be for the last bullpen spot. I would give it to Francis over Ondrusek if Francis would exercise his option out if not given a major league roster spot.

Furthermore, if Bray isn't ready on OD, I would want Mahay (or Dontrelle) in that bullpen spot.

Kc61
03-19-2012, 01:31 AM
I agree that the 25 man has probably already been settled by Walt pending injuries, but am I the only one who thinks Todd Frazier would offer more to the 2012 Reds than Wilson Valdez? Todd is a better hitter and I am not sure how much of an advantage (if any) Valdez has with the glove. Maybe this isn't the thread to discuss this, and maybe this discussion isn't very important in the first place, but if I was Walt, I would rather have Frazier than Valdez considering that Phillips and Cozart do not need defensive replacements and Frazier will hit more than Valdez.

The only other potential roster issue would be for the last bullpen spot. I would give it to Francis over Ondrusek if Francis would exercise his option out if not given a major league roster spot.

Furthermore, if Bray isn't ready on OD, I would want Mahay (or Dontrelle) in that bullpen spot.

I think the 25 is pretty set barring injury. But there are some interesting cases. Chapman. Francis. Frazier. Harris. My guess at 25 doesn't include any of them, but each has a good argument to stay.

dougdirt
03-19-2012, 01:35 AM
I'd agree if he was first or second in line, but I'd guess Brackman, Judy, Tomko, Francis, Smith and maybe even Christiani are ahead of him now.

Louisville needs pitchers too, and they are who I was talking about. If everyone is healthy at the end of ST, maybe you make the move then. You don't do it now.

_Sir_Charles_
03-19-2012, 06:35 PM
I agree that the 25 man has probably already been settled by Walt pending injuries, but am I the only one who thinks Todd Frazier would offer more to the 2012 Reds than Wilson Valdez? Todd is a better hitter and I am not sure how much of an advantage (if any) Valdez has with the glove. Maybe this isn't the thread to discuss this, and maybe this discussion isn't very important in the first place, but if I was Walt, I would rather have Frazier than Valdez considering that Phillips and Cozart do not need defensive replacements and Frazier will hit more than Valdez.

The only other potential roster issue would be for the last bullpen spot. I would give it to Francis over Ondrusek if Francis would exercise his option out if not given a major league roster spot.

Furthermore, if Bray isn't ready on OD, I would want Mahay (or Dontrelle) in that bullpen spot.

TOTALLY agree with regards to Frazier. He needs to make the club IMO. With Francisco out of options, he's a virtual lock. Valdez is the wild card. If his only asset over Frazier is that he can play short too...that's not enough in my book.

IslandRed
03-20-2012, 03:53 PM
TOTALLY agree with regards to Frazier. He needs to make the club IMO. With Francisco out of options, he's a virtual lock. Valdez is the wild card. If his only asset over Frazier is that he can play short too...that's not enough in my book.

Disagree. From a day-to-day roster management perspective, it's a big problem to go without a legitimate backup at either middle infield spot, thus forcing Phillips and Cozart to basically play 9/162 and limiting double-switch possibilities. All for the sake of carrying a guy who would have no real role except last pinch-hitter off the bench?

And no, I don't consider Frazier or Cairo serious options as backup middle infielders, even at second. They can stand there in an emergency, but that's about it. Valdez isn't Ozzie Smith or anything, but at least he's a legit 2B/SS glove.

The real roster redundancy is Cairo versus Francisco. Those two are basically identical in terms of the bench role they would fill and it really makes little sense to keep both.

Kc61
03-20-2012, 03:57 PM
Disagree. From a day-to-day roster management perspective, it's a big problem to go without a legitimate backup at either middle infield spot, thus forcing Phillips and Cozart to basically play 9/162 and limiting double-switch possibilities. All for the sake of carrying a guy who would have no real role except last pinch-hitter off the bench?

And no, I don't consider Frazier or Cairo serious options as backup middle infielders, even at second. They can stand there in an emergency, but that's about it. Valdez isn't Ozzie Smith or anything, but at least he's a legit 2B/SS glove.

The real roster redundancy is Cairo versus Francisco. Those two are basically identical in terms of the bench role they would fill and it really makes little sense to keep both.

It is unfortunate that Francisco and Cairo both essentially are third basemen. I agree with you it does create too much emphasis on that position.

Keep in mind, though, that Cairo has been very productive. And Francisco represents one of the few lefty hitting alternatives for the team.

The Reds' position player roster is highly unusual. Votto and Bruce are the only two lefty hitters. I think the final roster spot will go to a lefty bat. The two choices are Francisco and Willie Harris.

This makes it tough on Frazier.

I've never understood why the Reds don't make more of an effort to get lefty hitters or switch hitters in the off-season. Even backups.

Unlike some, I think this does make a difference. Regardless whether a Heisey tends to hit righties well, there is no substitute for some lefty/righty balance at the plate. The Reds are overwhelmingly right handed. Too much so.

_Sir_Charles_
03-20-2012, 06:11 PM
Disagree. From a day-to-day roster management perspective, it's a big problem to go without a legitimate backup at either middle infield spot, thus forcing Phillips and Cozart to basically play 9/162 and limiting double-switch possibilities. All for the sake of carrying a guy who would have no real role except last pinch-hitter off the bench?

And no, I don't consider Frazier or Cairo serious options as backup middle infielders, even at second. They can stand there in an emergency, but that's about it. Valdez isn't Ozzie Smith or anything, but at least he's a legit 2B/SS glove.

The real roster redundancy is Cairo versus Francisco. Those two are basically identical in terms of the bench role they would fill and it really makes little sense to keep both.

Louisville is NOT far away. Janish is going to be parked with the Bats for a reason.

Yes, Valdez is "legit" with the glove. But he's abysmal with the bat. So other than playing backup SS & 2b...what is Valdez bringing to the club day in and day out? Nothing. He's not going to be needed as a defensive replacement for either Cozart or Phillips. Sure, they'll both need occasional days off, but those can be planned for well ahead of time. Personally, I think Frazier could handle 2nd or short for those occasional spot starts...I know many disagree. Fine. Janish could still be called up for a week here or there to give Phillips & Cozart a rest. I'm assuming that Valdez doesn't have options....true? If he does, then HE can be the guy called up. Or if people don't like the Janish option (or Valdez has none), we've also got Valiaka down there who could fill in short-term.

My point is this, if Valdez is on the roster....Dusty's gonna start him twice a week, Dusty's gonna use him as a pinch hitter several times a week, Dusty's gonna use him as a pinch runner too. These are roles that Frazier can fill more ably. He's a much more viable threat as a pinch hitter. It's a joke as to how much more of a threat he'd be. And therefore a much more valuable member of the club IMO.

PuffyPig
03-20-2012, 08:35 PM
TOTALLY agree with regards to Frazier. He needs to make the club IMO. With Francisco out of options, he's a virtual lock. Valdez is the wild card. If his only asset over Frazier is that he can play short too...that's not enough in my book.

It is when he's the only other player on the team who can play SS.

The Reds will not go with a 25 which includes Frazier as the back up SS.

PuffyPig
03-20-2012, 08:36 PM
Yes, Valdez is "legit" with the glove. But he's abysmal with the bat. So other than playing backup SS & 2b...what is Valdez bringing to the club day in and day out? Nothing.

You need a back up for those positions. Every team has one,the Reds will not be any different.

IslandRed
03-20-2012, 09:45 PM
Yes, Valdez is "legit" with the glove. But he's abysmal with the bat. So other than playing backup SS & 2b...what is Valdez bringing to the club day in and day out? Nothing. He's not going to be needed as a defensive replacement for either Cozart or Phillips. Sure, they'll both need occasional days off, but those can be planned for well ahead of time. Personally, I think Frazier could handle 2nd or short for those occasional spot starts...I know many disagree. Fine. Janish could still be called up for a week here or there to give Phillips & Cozart a rest. I'm assuming that Valdez doesn't have options....true? If he does, then HE can be the guy called up. Or if people don't like the Janish option (or Valdez has none), we've also got Valiaka down there who could fill in short-term.

A team that cares about defense is not going to use Frazier or Cairo as a spot starter and double-switch replacement in the middle infield. They just aren't. The Reds care about defense. And it's really a PITA to have to make a roster move every time Cozart or Phillips needs a day off, even presuming you can plan for them all in advance, a notion that real life will quickly disabuse. Frazier's four or five pinch-hit at-bats per week aren't worth that much hassle.

_Sir_Charles_
03-21-2012, 12:01 AM
I guess that I find it rather strange that lots of people on here don't mind sacrificing defense for the offense at some positions but not in this case. If we were talking about a starting shortstop or 2B, I'd be right there with you guys. I'm ALWAYS in favor of excellent defenders...but if we're talking about a player who will only see the field once every week or two for one game, or in the event of an injury....yeah, I'd rather have a capable bat so the player can contribute to the team the other 95% of the time when he's NOT subbing for the starter.

I guess it comes down to this, can Todd play short at an acceptable enough level for a little used backup. I say yes. Obviously most all of you say no. He's got the arm, he knows the position, he's got experience there, he'll make the routine plays, he simply lacks the range to be an everyday shortstop. Stop and remember that he'd have 2 gold glovers bookending him for those once every week or two spot starts.

As for the double-switch needs...when was the last time Votto was double switched out? Phillips? There are plenty of places to double-switch that don't have to involve key defensive positions or key bats in the lineup.

(and as for the bringing up a guy from L'ville for sub duty...yeah, that would be a major pain...I was mainly talking about for injuries. For 1 game...I can easily live with Todd or even Miggy there....they won't KILL us)

WebScorpion
03-22-2012, 05:00 AM
As much as we would like to not have to waste a pinch hitting slot on a light hitting backup SS, the team will just not do without them. Either Valdez or Janish will go north with the team...and you can take that to the bank. Frazier's battle is with Francisco for the backup 3rd baseman slot...his disadvantage is that Juan is out of options. So even though he showed up out of shape, hasn't performed nearly as well as Frazier, and isn't as versatile as Frazier, he'll probably get the slot because that's the only way they don't risk losing him. :(

Kc61
03-22-2012, 11:04 AM
As much as we would like to not have to waste a pinch hitting slot on a light hitting backup SS, the team will just not do without them. Either Valdez or Janish will go north with the team...and you can take that to the bank. Frazier's battle is with Francisco for the backup 3rd baseman slot...his disadvantage is that Juan is out of options. So even though he showed up out of shape, hasn't performed nearly as well as Frazier, and isn't as versatile as Frazier, he'll probably get the slot because that's the only way they don't risk losing him. :(

It's mostly because Francisco hits left handed and Frazier is one a dozen other position players on the team who hits right handed.

If Francisco doesn't make it, Frazier is not next in line. It's Harris, another lefty hitter.

Name me one team in major league baseball with only two position players on the entire squad who hit left handed. It doesn't happen, and won't with the Reds. Francisco or Harris will be with the team rather than Frazier, and primarily for this reason.

And frankly, having seen Frazier play a little shortstop, I think he probably could back up there. It's his natural position, he's comfortable there, it's only a backup stint.

But I think the Reds are resistent to having two rookies at that position. They prefer a vet, which is reasonable, so it will be Valdez or Janish. Actually, it will be Valdez.

These are the reasons Frazier likely won't make the squad opening day.

_Sir_Charles_
03-22-2012, 11:38 AM
It's mostly because Francisco hits left handed and Frazier is one a dozen other position players on the team who hits right handed.

If Francisco doesn't make it, Frazier is not next in line. It's Harris, another lefty hitter.

Name me one team in major league baseball with only two position players on the entire squad who hit left handed. It doesn't happen, and won't with the Reds. Francisco or Harris will be with the team rather than Frazier, and primarily for this reason.

And frankly, having seen Frazier play a little shortstop, I think he probably could back up there. It's his natural position, he's comfortable there, it's only a backup stint.

But I think the Reds are resistent to having two rookies at that position. They prefer a vet, which is reasonable, so it will be Valdez or Janish. Actually, it will be Valdez.

These are the reasons Frazier likely won't make the squad opening day.

*faints dead away*

You mean I'm not alone in that assessment?!? Wow.

Kc61
03-22-2012, 12:09 PM
*faints dead away*

You mean I'm not alone in that assessment?!? Wow.

Yes, I think Todd could handle it, but won't get that gig.

Of course, the concern about Frazier's status is probably unnecessary. Because he is so versatile, I expect him to spend a lot of time with the Reds this year. He'll be on the Louisville express.

Edd Roush
03-22-2012, 12:13 PM
Yes, I think Todd could handle it, but won't get that gig.

Of course, the concern about Frazier's status is probably unnecessary. Because he is so versatile, I expect him to spend a lot of time with the Reds this year. He'll be on the Louisville express.

I also think Todd would have more value to the Reds than Valdez or Janish. If you ran Todd out there (and in turn gave Cozart a breather) when a fly ball pitcher is on the mound, I do not see a major problem. Additionally, Cozart is a rookie and has young legs and shouldn't need to many random off days. Dusty likes to keep his bench guys fresh, so Frazier can stay fresh playing once a week at short and second while also being one of the first guys off the bench as a pinch hitter late in games.

_Sir_Charles_
03-22-2012, 02:54 PM
Yep, I agree with you guys. And unfortunately, you're also right that it won't happen. It's gonna be Valdez. I think that's already written in stone unless an injury happens.

The only thing keeping Todd from the 25 man roster is one thing...Francisco's lack of options. That's it. If Juan still had an option, no way does Dusty bring him north. NONE. He's made it very clear that he's very unhappy with Francisco right now, but without an option, no chance the Reds take the risk of losing him.

Kc61
03-22-2012, 03:37 PM
The only thing keeping Todd from the 25 man roster is one thing...Francisco's lack of options. That's it. If Juan still had an option, no way does Dusty bring him north. NONE. He's made it very clear that he's very unhappy with Francisco right now, but without an option, no chance the Reds take the risk of losing him.

Yes, Francisco had a slow start, yes Dusty expressed disappointment, but I think you've way overstated this.

The Reds are high on Francisco. They like his lefty bat. He hits righties well, unlike much of the Reds lineup.

I think Francisco is going north unless traded, and I think it would be true with or without an option.

As for Frazier the Reds did him an enormous favor giving him time at various positions in the minor leagues. His versatility (plus his power) will keep him in the major leagues for quite awhile in my view.

But I think ultimately the Reds are higher on JF. How it will all pan out, who knows.

_Sir_Charles_
03-22-2012, 05:41 PM
Let me put it this way, if you take the options out of the equation and the handedness and just looked at the PLAY of those 2 guys, I'd say that there's no doubt in my mind that Dusty would pick Todd over Juan right now. But the lack of lefties on the club combined with the zero options...it's either "fish or cut bait" time for Juan. And I don't see the Reds cutting him loose. I agree with you, they're high on the kid.

Kc61
03-23-2012, 04:03 PM
I'm assuming the next round of cuts will be this weekend. Reds have split squad games on Saturday, I believe, so they need a bunch of people. After that, maybe this thread can have some actual news to present.

mbgrayson
03-25-2012, 01:13 PM
News of more coming soon; see Mark Sheldon's blog (http://marksheldon.mlblogs.com/2012/03/25/sunday-at-salt-river-fields/):


As I type at the Reds complex, some more guys are cleaning out their lockers following the next wave of cuts. I will have the names when it’s all done.

mth123
03-25-2012, 01:42 PM
News of more coming soon; see Mark Sheldon's blog (http://marksheldon.mlblogs.com/2012/03/25/sunday-at-salt-river-fields/):

I hope its at least a dozen.

cinreds21
03-25-2012, 02:17 PM
John Fay ‏ @johnfayman Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
#Reds' cuts: Brackman, Phipps, Valaika optioned; reassigned to minor league camp Fisher, Mahay, Tanner, Texeira and Zavada.

Kc61
03-25-2012, 02:27 PM
Eight man cut moves Reds down to 35 in camp by my count. However, Madson and Jordan Smith are both in that 35. Madson is out, Smith hasn't pitched due to injury and won't make team.

So effectively, the Reds now have 33 players.

Of that 33, I still see five catchers in camp. Three of them will likely go down as well. I have Esposito, Navarro, and Corky still in major league camp.

The pitching cuts are deep and the team is down to the bare essentials. The four clear starters, plus Chapman, Bailey, Francis all still around. Along with Marshall, Masset, Ondrusek, Lecure, Bray, Arredondo. Thirteen healthy pitchers for twelve spots.

Among position players, as noted, there are five catchers. There's Votto, Phillips, Cozart, Rolen, Ludwick, Stubbs, Bruce, Hanigan. There's Mesoraco and Heisey. There's Cairo and Valdez.

That leaves Francisco, Frazier, Janish, Harris, and Daryl Jones for the extra spot barring a surprise.

Of course, Reds could keep three catchers which would put Navarro in play.

Down to brass tacks.

Kc61
03-25-2012, 02:28 PM
Skip.

JaxRed
03-25-2012, 02:33 PM
They cut Skip?

Kc61
03-25-2012, 02:35 PM
They cut Skip?

Controversial decision.

cinreds21
03-25-2012, 02:36 PM
The obvious question is will Aroldis start in the bigs. If not, Francis, to me, makes the team. Then the pitching staff is set.

As for the bench, it's really just how pissed are they at Juan Francisco? I think they keep him. One, they don't have another lefty, and two, he's out of options.

Kc61
03-25-2012, 02:50 PM
The obvious question is will Aroldis start in the bigs. If not, Francis, to me, makes the team. Then the pitching staff is set.

As for the bench, it's really just how pissed are they at Juan Francisco? I think they keep him. One, they don't have another lefty, and two, he's out of options.

Part of the bench calculation is that the Reds are thin in the outfield. Probably keeping some guys to use in spring games.

I wonder if the Reds will trade Paul Janish. He's at the point in his career where the Reds may feel it's unfair to send him to AAA if somebody else wants him.

Very surprised that the team cut its pitching staff so deeply. Would expect another cut of position players late this week perhaps.

mth123
03-25-2012, 02:58 PM
Eight man cut moves Reds down to 35 in camp by my count. However, Madson and Jordan Smith are both in that 35. Madson is out, Smith hasn't pitched due to injury and won't make team.

So effectively, the Reds now have 33 players.

Of that 33, I still see five catchers in camp. Three of them will likely go down as well. I have Esposito, Navarro, and Corky still in major league camp.

The pitching cuts are deep and the team is down to the bare essentials. The four clear starters, plus Chapman, Bailey, Francis all still around. Along with Marshall, Masset, Ondrusek, Lecure, Bray, Arredondo. Thirteen healthy pitchers for twelve spots.

Among position players, as noted, there are five catchers. There's Votto, Phillips, Cozart, Rolen, Ludwick, Stubbs, Bruce, Hanigan. There's Mesoraco and Heisey. There's Cairo and Valdez.

That leaves Francisco, Frazier, Janish, Harris, and Daryl Jones for the extra spot barring a surprise.

Of course, Reds could keep three catchers which would put Navarro in play.

Down to brass tacks.

Esposito went last round. Assuming Madson gone they are at 33 - 32 if you don't count Smith.

14 Pitchers:

Latos, Cueto, Arroyo, Leake, Bailey, Chapman, Francis, Smith, Lecure, Arredondo, Ondrusek, Marshall, Bray and Masset

4 Catchers

Mesoraco, Hanigan. Miller, Navarro

8 IF

Votto, Phillips, Cozart, Rolen, Cairo, Valdez, Janish, Francisco

7 OF

Bruce, Stubbs, Heisey, Ludwick, Harris, Jones, Frazier

Smith, Jones, Miller and Navarro are obvious cuts. Leaving 4 cuts left, one of whom will be a picther (I say Chapman) and 3 position players, Janish, Harris and Frazier I'd guess.

mattfeet
03-25-2012, 11:44 PM
Does Madson's predicament open a spot on the 40-man?

cinreds21
03-26-2012, 01:24 AM
When they put him on the 60-day Disabled list, yes.

Hoosier Red
03-26-2012, 10:01 AM
But they need to open a spot on the 40 for Francis if he were to make the team, do they not?

Perhaps someone better schooled in the 40 man roster can put in bold everyone who is not currently on the 40?

HR

camisadelgolf
03-26-2012, 10:25 AM
But they need to open a spot on the 40 for Francis if he were to make the team, do they not?

Perhaps someone better schooled in the 40 man roster can put in bold everyone who is not currently on the 40?

HR
There are five players not on the 40-man roster who are still vying for spots on the 25-man roster:
Jeff Francis
Corky Miller
Dioner Navarro
Willie Harris
Daryl Jones

Hoosier Red
03-26-2012, 10:45 AM
There are five players not on the 40-man roster who are still vying for spots on the 25-man roster:
Jeff Francis
Corky Miller
Dioner Navarro
Willie Harris
Daryl Jones

Thank you much. Of that group, Francis is the only one truly competing for a spot which means they don't need any roster hocus pocus to make it work.

reds44
03-28-2012, 02:01 PM
Navarro, Miller, Jones re-assigned to minor league camp. Roster at 30. #reds

Kc61
03-28-2012, 02:08 PM
Navarro, Miller, Jones re-assigned to minor league camp. Roster at 30. #reds

The 30 includes Jordan Smith who has been hurt and Masset who is now DLd.

So that's really 28 players.

Without Masset and Smith, there are now 12 pitchers, the opening day number. Unless there are pitching moves, it means all of Bailey, Chapman, and Francis make the Reds team. Don't know in what roles.

On the position side, the Reds now have 2 catchers, Mes and Hanigan.

So, that leaves the following five guys vying for the last two spots. Valdez (I assume he's in), Janish, Francisco, Frazier, Willie Harris.

Edd Roush
03-28-2012, 03:46 PM
Without Masset and Smith, there are now 12 pitchers, the opening day number. Unless there are pitching moves, it means all of Bailey, Chapman, and Francis make the Reds team. Don't know in what roles.

If the Reds do not sign Mike Gonzalez, I really hope they call up Ron Mahay when the 40-man spot opens when Madson is put on the 60-day DL. Mahay should be a servicable LOOGY and mop-up guy. Chapman needs to go to AAA to continue his development as a start.

...or the Reds can give Chapman Arroyo's rotation spot, and Arroyo can be the mop-up/long guy :beerme:

_Sir_Charles_
03-28-2012, 03:49 PM
I was under the impression that the Reds still viewed Sam LeCure as the "long man" in the pen. No?

Kc61
03-28-2012, 03:59 PM
Expectation:

1. Reds will watch Bailey carefully next time out. Likely to stay in the rotation, but if he gets hit around again, maybe not healthy, maybe spot in jeopardy. Probably Homer in rotation, but if not, Chapman.

2- Reds are two men down in the pen. If Homer starts, my guess is Chapman relieves out of necessity, for the short term. Don't see Chappy at AAA with this bullpen deficit.

3. With or without Chapman in the pen, the Reds have to add a reliever from the minors or from the outside. My guess would be Brackman.

4. Bill Bray had better be healthy. . .

5. Guessing Jeff Francis will be a AAA starter to begin.

6. If Reds need a reliever, you'd have to think that Janish, Francisco, and Frazier are all possible trade bait. If no trade, likelihood is that Francisco stays and Janish, Frazier and Harris get sent out.

7. If Francisco doesn't make club for any reason, trade, whatever, Willie Harris gets the nod as the lefty bat.

Edd Roush
03-28-2012, 04:01 PM
Expectation:

1-Reds will watch Bailey carefully next time out. Likely to stay in the rotation, but if he gets hit around again, maybe not healthy, maybe spot in jeopardy. Probably Homer in rotation, but if not, Chapman.

2- Reds are two men down in the pen. If Homer starts, my guess is Chapman relieves out of necessity, for the short term. Don't see Chappy at AAA with this bullpen deficit.

3. With or without Chapman in the pen, the Reds have to add a reliever from the minors or from the outside. My guess would be Brackman.

4. Bill Bray had better be healthy. . .

5. Guessing Jeff Francis will be a AAA starter to begin.

6. If Reds need a reliever, you'd have to think that Janish, Francisco, and Frazier are all possible trade bait. If no trade, likelihood is that Francisco stays and Janish, Frazier and Harris get sent out.

7. If Francisco doesn't make club for any reason, trade, whatever, Willie Harris gets the nod as the lefty bat.


Isn't Mahay still with the club? I know this is just your expectation, but you don't foresee him having any role in Walt's eyes?

Kc61
03-28-2012, 04:03 PM
Isn't Mahay still with the club? I know this is just your expectation, but you don't foresee him having any role in Walt's eyes?

No Edd, Mahay was sent down.

My guess is Mahay's only shot to be recalled is if Bray can't go. Which could indeed happen.

I know your view, I just can't see the Reds trying to win with Mahay on the Reds and Chapman in the minors. But could happen, who knows.

Something has to give here, the pen is really short now.

Edd Roush
03-28-2012, 04:15 PM
No Edd, Mahay was sent down.

My guess is Mahay's only shot to be recalled is if Bray can't go. Which could indeed happen.

I know your view, I just can't see the Reds trying to win with Mahay on the Reds and Chapman in the minors. But could happen, who knows.

Something has to give here, the pen is really short now.

I know he was sent down, but couldn't he be called up in light of the Masset and Madson injuries? I like having two non-Marshall/closer lefties in the pen and Mahay is the second best IMO. Bray is too good to be used as a LOOGY and Mahay therefore fits the bill best.

Kc61
03-28-2012, 04:20 PM
I know he was sent down, but couldn't he be called up in light of the Masset and Madson injuries? I like having two non-Marshall/closer lefties in the pen and Mahay is the second best IMO. Bray is too good to be used as a LOOGY and Mahay therefore fits the bill best.

We'll see, there certainly should be some re-shuffling in the pitching staff with all these injuries.

LoganBuck
03-28-2012, 05:14 PM
Josh Judy outrighted per link at Mlb trade rumors

Kc61
03-28-2012, 06:01 PM
Josh Judy outrighted per link at Mlb trade rumors

Clears a spot on the forty-man roster. Hmmmmm.

reds44
03-28-2012, 06:03 PM
Jeff Francis has decided not to exercise his opt-out clause w/ #Reds. He's told club he'd be willing to go to Triple-A and start.

Kc61
03-29-2012, 12:54 AM
Chapman pitching against Milwaukee on the road tomorrow. Bailey pitching in a minor league game.

While one game probably shouldn't mean too much, seems to me that the result of these outings could influence the final composition of the rotation and bullpen for the Reds.

cinreds21
03-29-2012, 07:46 PM
Just to be technical, Mahay was not "sent down" but rather reassigned. There is a difference despite the terms being commonly thrown around.

Edd Roush
03-29-2012, 07:53 PM
Just to be technical, Mahay was not "sent down" but rather reassigned. There is a difference despite the terms being commonly thrown around.

Could he be re-reassigned back to the major league team? I am not sure if I 100% understand the rules. I just think he should have a place in the OD bullpen.

cinreds21
03-29-2012, 07:59 PM
Could he be re-reassigned back to the major league team? I am not sure if I 100% understand the rules. I just think he should have a place in the OD bullpen.

They would have to purchase his contract since he's not on the 40-man roster.

Doc. Scott
03-29-2012, 11:02 PM
They would have to purchase his contract since he's not on the 40-man roster.

Wouldn't be surprised if the Reds end up letting Mahay go to pursue a more fruitful opportunity elsewhere. Have you seen the Brewers' left-handed reliever depth chart? (http://mlb.mlb.com/team/depth_chart/index.jsp?c_id=mil)

mth123
03-29-2012, 11:09 PM
Francis > Mahay
Tanner > Mahay
Zavada > Mahay

in a couple months, Joseph may be better than all of them. Travis Webb just may be a sleeper in all of this. I'd start the season with Francis as the 12th man, 3rd lefty in the pen, Tanner, Webb and Zavada in the AAA pen, Joseph at AA and I'd let Mahay get on with his life.

Edd Roush
03-30-2012, 09:16 AM
Francis > Mahay
Tanner > Mahay
Zavada > Mahay

in a couple months, Joseph may be better than all of them. Travis Webb just may be a sleeper in all of this. I'd start the season with Francis as the 12th man, 3rd lefty in the pen, Tanner, Webb and Zavada in the AAA pen, Joseph at AA and I'd let Mahay get on with his life.

mth, I usually understand and agree with your opinion, but I don't understand your ranking of Mahay. His last full season in the bigs he had a 3.13 K:BB ratio and his career K:BB ratio of 1.77 is solid. However, since I see the importance of a LOOGY in the bullpen, the reason I want him on the team is his career .689 OPS against vs. lefties.

Mahay has value. Zavada was toiling in AA last year; do you want to rely on him in a big spot this year? Clay Tanner has never pitched in the bigs; you believe in him more than Mahay? I am not going to argue that Mahay is a better pitcher than Francis. I like Francis more. However, I want him to be in AAA stretched out for when the first starter goes down. Granted, that has less importance if Chapman is down in the AAA rotation dominating so he can be the first one up, but if we truly want allow Chapman to develop and not rush him like we did with Bailey, I really like Francis way more as the 6th man in the rotation rather than a one-out guy in the bullpen like Mahay.

757690
03-30-2012, 02:59 PM
mth, I usually understand and agree with your opinion, but I don't understand your ranking of Mahay. His last full season in the bigs he had a 3.13 K:BB ratio and his career K:BB ratio of 1.77 is solid. However, since I see the importance of a LOOGY in the bullpen, the reason I want him on the team is his career .689 OPS against vs. lefties.

Mahay has value. Zavada was toiling in AA last year; do you want to rely on him in a big spot this year? Clay Tanner has never pitched in the bigs; you believe in him more than Mahay? I am not going to argue that Mahay is a better pitcher than Francis. I like Francis more. However, I want him to be in AAA stretched out for when the first starter goes down. Granted, that has less importance if Chapman is down in the AAA rotation dominating so he can be the first one up, but if we truly want allow Chapman to develop and not rush him like we did with Bailey, I really like Francis way more as the 6th man in the rotation rather than a one-out guy in the bullpen like Mahay.


Mahay is 40 and last pitched in the majors in 2010. Probably fork time.

Edd Roush
03-30-2012, 04:44 PM
Mahay is 40 and last pitched in the majors in 2010. Probably fork time.

He missed one year due to injury which followed a very effective 2010 and it's time to put a fork in him? I agree with doug that the most important things to watch for in the spring are velocity and injuries. I do not care for spring training stats. We know Mahay is healthy, and if he has lost velocity, then sure, go ahead and cut him or stick him in AAA, but if he is where he was in 2010 with his velocity, why not go with the proven veteran compared to two rookies? What am I missing here?

Furthermore, even if he is losing velocity, per FanGraphs pitch f/x he threw his heater less often in 2010 than in any of the three years prior by a measurable amount (48.8% in 2010 vs. a previous low of 53.8% in 2009 and 66.8% in 2008). His 2010 average fastball velocity was 88.9 mph compared to a 2009 average of 90.4. His slider velocity dipped a bit as well, but he was still very effective in 2010. Again, I do not have any pitch f/x data available for this spring and if he isn't bringing it near his 2010 velocities, then I understand that we can put a fork in him, but the man only has 568 major league innings on his arm and it's not like he is 40 so he has no more innings left in his arm.

camisadelgolf
03-30-2012, 05:43 PM
He missed one year due to injury which followed a very effective 2010 and it's time to put a fork in him? I agree with doug that the most important things to watch for in the spring are velocity and injuries. I do not care for spring training stats. We know Mahay is healthy, and if he has lost velocity, then sure, go ahead and cut him or stick him in AAA, but if he is where he was in 2010 with his velocity, why not go with the proven veteran compared to two rookies? What am I missing here?

Furthermore, even if he is losing velocity, per FanGraphs pitch f/x he threw his heater less often in 2010 than in any of the three years prior by a measurable amount (48.8% in 2010 vs. a previous low of 53.8% in 2009 and 66.8% in 2008). His 2010 average fastball velocity was 88.9 mph compared to a 2009 average of 90.4. His slider velocity dipped a bit as well, but he was still very effective in 2010. Again, I do not have any pitch f/x data available for this spring and if he isn't bringing it near his 2010 velocities, then I understand that we can put a fork in him, but the man only has 568 major league innings on his arm and it's not like he is 40 so he has no more innings left in his arm.
Fwiw, he turns 41 in June.

mth123
03-30-2012, 08:21 PM
Mahay is 40 and last pitched in the majors in 2010. Probably fork time.

Yep. 41 year old guys who didn't play in the big leagues last year are generally my last choice.

I think Tanner as a billpen arm might be interesting. Some one from the Reds, Jocketty maybe, was quoted as saying he could come fast as a reliever.

Kc61
03-30-2012, 09:01 PM
Rumor that Reds talking about trade of Janish, maybe to Phils. In Fay's blog.

Wouldn't be surprised if Janish was traded. He's been in the majors for awhile now, probably doesn't want to go to AAA. Reds might accomodate him with a deal.

Just guessing that Paul and someone else could go for a reliever.

Just speculating.

I assume things will clarify in the next day or two. Lots of suspense around RedsZone with all the Chapman/Bailey talk.

Edd Roush
03-30-2012, 09:07 PM
Fwiw, he turns 41 in June.

I don't think I made that last point clearly. My point was that even though he does turn 41 in June, he has been a reliever for his entire career. Therefore, his arm has taken less abuse than a 41 year old starter.

As for mth's point about him being out of the league last year, I can see that point, but he was very effective in his last large sample size. I would just rather go with the wily veteran on a win-now team rather than the unproven, unheralded rookie.

mth123
03-30-2012, 09:12 PM
Not sure the Reds would get much for Janish. The Phillies pen isn't real deep. The guy I'd want is Antonio Bastardo but that would take something significant going to Philly. Maybe they could get Joe Savery, but I think it would take more than Janish and I'm not sure how much he'd help as compared to others in the organization. I'd be thrilled with Janish for Savery though. More likely it will be Janish for a little bit of cash.

Kc61
03-30-2012, 09:21 PM
Not sure the Reds would get much for Janish. The Phillies pen isn't real deep. The guy I'd want is Antonio Bastardo but that would take something significant going to Philly. Maybe they could get Joe Savery, but I think it would take more than Janish and I'm not sure how much he'd help as compared to others in the organization. I'd be thrilled with Janish for Savery though. More likely it will be Janish for a little bit of cash.

Maybe. I have to think the Reds, if focused on a trade, are asking for a reliever from somewhere.

In Janish's case, however, they may trade him in any event. Like you say, maybe for some cash or a medium prospect.

Just hard for me to envision him going to Louisville again.

We'll see soon.

mth123
03-30-2012, 09:58 PM
Maybe. I have to think the Reds, if focused on a trade, are asking for a reliever from somewhere.

In Janish's case, however, they may trade him in any event. Like you say, maybe for some cash or a medium prospect.

Just hard for me to envision him going to Louisville again.

We'll see soon.

I really think if the Reds acquire some one, it will be a lefty. If Marshall closes, then Bray is basically the only lefty option. They may not find anyone better than Francis. If they decide to move Chapman to the pen, I don't think they'll get anyone.

RED VAN HOT
03-30-2012, 10:57 PM
I really think if the Reds acquire some one, it will be a lefty. If Marshall closes, then Bray is basically the only lefty option. They may not find anyone better than Francis. If they decide to move Chapman to the pen, I don't think they'll get anyone.

Lots of moving parts to sort out. Reds used Marshall to set up and Arredondo to close today. Perhaps they are intentionally remaining flexible in the closer role. If Arredondo closes, they could pick up a RHP for middle relief. I would think that would be easier to do than obtaining a lefty. Perhaps Walt is waiting to see who becomes available when teams make their final cuts.

mth123
03-31-2012, 02:00 AM
Lots of moving parts to sort out. Reds used Marshall to set up and Arredondo to close today. Perhaps they are intentionally remaining flexible in the closer role. If Arredondo closes, they could pick up a RHP for middle relief. I would think that would be easier to do than obtaining a lefty. Perhaps Walt is waiting to see who becomes available when teams make their final cuts.

Arredondo closing would be my preference. Assuming Masset is healthy, that would set-up a pretty good bullpen as is. Arredondo closing. Marshall and Masset providing LH and RH set-up. Bray and Ondrusek providing LH and RH Middle relief and Francis and Lecure providing LH and RH long relief. No one else need apply.

Kc61
03-31-2012, 02:21 AM
Arredondo closing would be my preference. Assuming Masset is healthy, that would set-up a pretty good bullpen as is. Arredondo closing. Marshall and Masset providing LH and RH set-up. Bray and Ondrusek providing LH and RH Middle relief and Francis and Lecure providing LH and RH long relief. No one else need apply.

I could live with Arredondo as the closer initially. And, of course, Marshall as set up.

Masset as a set up man ignores 2011. His WHIP of 1.5 plus was unsuitable for such a prominent role. I'd prefer Ondrusek, who is underrated, and was great last year until overwork got him.

And others do need apply. For one thing, your set up man, Masset, is on the DL. Frequently, pitchers on the DL do not come back after the minimum 15 days. I'd be surprised if Masset pitches much in April, if at all.

And Madson's spot is open. And Bray hasn't been healthy this spring. And Lecure is no sure thing. I don't expect Francis in the bullpen at all.

Either Bailey or Chapman will likely be in the pen for longer stints. And it wouldn't hurt the Reds to add another veteran reliever with all these injuries.

If your suggestion is that Chapman will be at AAA, doubtful.

mth123
03-31-2012, 04:01 AM
I could live with Arredondo as the closer initially. And, of course, Marshall as set up.

Masset as a set up man ignores 2011. His WHIP of 1.5 plus was unsuitable for such a prominent role. I'd prefer Ondrusek, who is underrated, and was great last year until overwork got him.

And others do need apply. For one thing, your set up man, Masset, is on the DL. Frequently, pitchers on the DL do not come back after the minimum 15 days. I'd be surprised if Masset pitches much in April, if at all.

And Madson's spot is open. And Bray hasn't been healthy this spring. And Lecure is no sure thing. I don't expect Francis in the bullpen at all.

Either Bailey or Chapman will likely be in the pen for longer stints. And it wouldn't hurt the Reds to add another veteran reliever with all these injuries.

If your suggestion is that Chapman will be at AAA, doubtful.

Actually, I think Ondrusek is the weak link in the pen that I suggested. I do agree that Masset's health is key. I don't trust shoulder issues, but from all reports, this is not a long term issue (but I wonder if whatever in his motion created the soreness in the first place may have a long term issue brewing). I'm not worried about making a move for a couple of weeks while we wait for Masset. As for Masset's 2011 season, I just don't view it as an indication of his future effectiveness. If anyone wore down in 2011, it was Masset and his 75 appearances (seemingly every day in the first half). I actualy think the entire pen was gassed by the end of June. Masset's WHIP was fueled by a .335 BABIP while Ondrusek benefitted from a BABIP of .268. Ondrusek actually had a higher BB/9 and a lower K/9 than Masset did in 2011 even though Masset's year seemed worse.

IMO, both of these guys (and a few others) suffered worse season's than they should have because the rotation was horrible and frequently subjected the pen to having to deal with 5 inning starts (on a good day and many times even shorter outings). So far, we haven't seen Chapman go more than 5 and having a 5 inning starter in the rotation will be a quicker way to destroy this pen than the concerns over any specific reliever. This team does not need another Volquez type performance from one of its rotation spots early in the year. I'd need to see Chapman go down and consistently go into the 7th with little to no loss of stuff or effectiveness as the game wears on before giving him a rotation spot.

I understand always wanting to improve, I just don't see many teams with a better collection of relief pitchers than the Reds have already got on their roster. Every team has a couple of really iffy guys in its pen (more iffy than Lecure or Ondrusek IMO) and just about anyone the team could acquire would be a fringe 12th man type. They aren't going to get an upgrade for Paul Janish or Chris Valaika. They may be able to add some one like Mike Zagurski or Mark Lowe for the mix for depth (and that would be OK IMO), but they aren't going to get an impact arm who would be an upgrade from Francis or Lecure without dealing off a significant piece of the team (say some one like Stubbs or Heisey). This team doesn't have a name closer, but it doesn't really have any real bad pitchers in its pen either. I'm not sure there is an urgency to acquire one because a bad one who isn't good enough to make some team, that already has worse guys than the Reds have penciled in, is probably all that would be out there.

I agree that Chapman in the pen would be an upgrade and I'd actually be OK with Chapman being a dominating late inning reliever throughout his Red's career, but Chapman is showing real promise as a potential impact starter and since the team has gotten him to that point now, I'd rather go with it in AAA for another month or so rather than use him in the pen to fill a short term hole. If he shows ability to maintain his stuff and effectiveness deep into the game, then bring him up and put him in the rotation. If not, he can be added to the late inning mix later. They can survive until Masset returns.

Kc61
03-31-2012, 10:09 AM
Actually, I think Ondrusek is the weak link in the pen that I suggested. I do agree that Masset's health is key. I don't trust shoulder issues, but from all reports, this is not a long term issue (but I wonder if whatever in his motion created the soreness in the first place may have a long term issue brewing). I'm not worried about making a move for a couple of weeks while we wait for Masset. As for Masset's 2011 season, I just don't view it as an indication of his future effectiveness. If anyone wore down in 2011, it was Masset and his 75 appearances (seemingly every day in the first half). I actualy think the entire pen was gassed by the end of June. Masset's WHIP was fueled by a .335 BABIP while Ondrusek benefitted from a BABIP of .268. Ondrusek actually had a higher BB/9 and a lower K/9 than Masset did in 2011 even though Masset's year seemed worse.

I agree that Chapman in the pen would be an upgrade and I'd actually be OK with Chapman being a dominating late inning reliever throughout his Red's career, but Chapman is showing real promise as a potential impact starter and since the team has gotten him to that point now, I'd rather go with it in AAA for another month or so rather than use him in the pen to fill a short term hole. If he shows ability to maintain his stuff and effectiveness deep into the game, then bring him up and put him in the rotation. If not, he can be added to the late inning mix later. They can survive until Masset returns.

Masset wasn't gassed in April of 2010 or April of 2011, but both were disasters. He has very good stuff, but has had real command issues, and has been very inconsistent the last two years. The best remedy for Masset is a time machine taking us back to 2009 when he was excellent.

Ondrusek has potential to be a very consistent reliever, although his control could be better. He may not throw as hard as Masset, but if used properly, I think Logan can be better. I base this on Logan's consistency during most of last year. He was just excellent until he got hurt, which probably was the result of overuse.

Chapman should be in the major leagues, we totally disagree on that.

Cedric
03-31-2012, 10:55 AM
Masset wasn't gassed in April of 2010 or April of 2011, but both were disasters. He has very good stuff, but has had real command issues, and has been very inconsistent the last two years. The best remedy for Masset is a time machine taking us back to 2009 when he was excellent.

Ondrusek has potential to be a very consistent reliever, although his control could be better. He may not throw as hard as Masset, but if used properly, I think Logan can be better. I base this on Logan's consistency during most of last year. He was just excellent until he got hurt, which probably was the result of overuse.

Chapman should be in the major leagues, we totally disagree on that.

Ondrusek was very lucky last year and still didn't perform that well. He is the weak link in the bullpen, IMO.

I would have much more faith in Nick at this point when healthy.

Sea Ray
03-31-2012, 10:56 AM
Should we offer Janish to the Twins for Jared Burton?

mth123
03-31-2012, 11:09 AM
Should we offer Janish to the Twins for Jared Burton?

I'd rather have Francis.

Kc61
03-31-2012, 11:11 AM
Ondrusek was very lucky last year and still didn't perform that well. He is the weak link in the bullpen, IMO.

I would have much more faith in Nick at this point when healthy.

Your view is the conventional wisdom around here. I think folks have amnesia on Masset. By the end of last summer, well, Nick wasn't exactly my favored reliever in a tough spot.

They will both be on the team, so it really doesn't impact the roster. Let's see if some decisions are made today.

Reds have a number of issues to resolve, obviously.

mth123
03-31-2012, 11:37 AM
Your view is the conventional wisdom around here. I think folks have amnesia on Masset. By the end of last summer, well, Nick wasn't exactly my favored reliever in a tough spot.

They will both be on the team, so it really doesn't impact the roster. Let's see if some decisions are made today.

Reds have a number of issues to resolve, obviously.

Here's the thing KC, I actually share your view on the importance of the bullpen. I was in favor of making Chapman a reliever and moving on, but that was before the reds spent a bunch of resources acquiring other guys to free Chapman to give starting a go. I don't think Bailey should lose his spot based on meaningless spring games and none of the other starters are going anywhere. Since the resources are gone, I'd go with the plan and not jerk Chapman back to the pen now. Let him start in AAA. Let him show he can go deep into games (and that he isn't another Volquez who only manages to go 5 even on a good day).

So, if we're looking to upgrade the pen, whose spot do they take? Assuming Ondrusek and Masset are givens along with Marshall, Arredondo and Bray, that would mean the team would need to find a better guy than Lecure or Francis for it to be an upgrade. There are lots of better guys in the majors than those guys, but looking at the rosters, I don't see any team with 7 better guys than those guys. That would mean some team would have to deal one of its top 5 bullpen arms and knowingly take a downgrrade for it to be an upgrade for the Reds. Do you think that will happen for Paul Janish? They may find some out of options guy to fill Masset's roster spot for a month, who the team would be afraid to use and probably have to get through waivers when Masset returns, but it won't be a meaningful upgrade to any internal candidate who could also sit at the end of the pen and only pitch in blow-outs. The Reds would need to deal something much more significant to get an upgrade IMO. I'm not real excited to see them deal Heisey or Stubbs for a middle reliever. Perhaps Stubbs for a closer who pushes the others down a notch would work, but I wouldn't give my closer for Stubbs if I was another team at this point. Otherwise, its not worth downgrading from Stubbs or Heisey to Wilie Harris.

I'm ok with the Reds dealing Janish for some 12th reliever type, but I really don't see it making any difference in the won loss record.

Kc61
03-31-2012, 11:58 AM
So, if we're looking to upgrade the pen, whose spot do they take? Assuming Ondrusek and Masset are givens along with Marshall, Arredondo and Bray, that would mean the team would need to find a better guy than Lecure or Francis for it to be an upgrade. .

Jeff Francis doesn't belong in the bullpen. He's a starter who has had injury and struggles and needs to start in the minor leagues. That's why he was hired, for starting depth, and he should be getting ready to provide it at Louisville. There's nothing to indicate that Francis is ready to pitch effectively in the majors right now.

And again, Nick Masset isn't available. He is out. Who knows how long. He will likely need rehab time after he recovers, he missed much of spring training.

This leaves two openings in the pen. One is for Bailey or Chapman. One of them throws longer relief until a spot opens in the rotation.

The other spot is for a new reliever. Somebody decent who the Reds can rely on in the middle innings. Otherwise, guys like Ondrusek and Arredondo will be pitching virtually every day.

When Masset is ready, somebody will have to move off the pitching roster. By then, there will probably be another DL candidate, or somebody who is ineffective.

I think it's that simple.

mth123
03-31-2012, 12:27 PM
Jeff Francis doesn't belong in the bullpen. He's a starter who has had injury and struggles and needs to start in the minor leagues. That's why he was hired, for starting depth, and he should be getting ready to provide it at Louisville. There's nothing to indicate that Francis is ready to pitch effectively in the majors right now.

And again, Nick Masset isn't available. He is out. Who knows how long. He will likely need rehab time after he recovers, he missed much of spring training.

This leaves two openings in the pen. One is for Bailey or Chapman. One of them throws longer relief until a spot opens in the rotation.

The other spot is for a new reliever. Somebody decent who the Reds can rely on in the middle innings. Otherwise, guys like Ondrusek and Arredondo will be pitching virtually every day.

When Masset is ready, somebody will have to move off the pitching roster. By then, there will probably be another DL candidate, or somebody who is ineffective.

I think it's that simple.

Again. Who are you willing to deal to get somebody decent for the middle innings? It will need to be more than Janish. Not many teams have decent guys to spare. Most teams only have 3 or 4 guys the caliber you are talking about and to move one it would need to be a significant deal.

Take Philly as an example. They have Papelbon, Bastardo and maybe Chad Qualls and that's it. They could probably use one of the Reds' extra infielders, but you won't get one of those 3 and the others are all similar to the Reds suspects. Its not simple at all.

Kc61
03-31-2012, 01:07 PM
Again. Who are you willing to deal to get somebody decent for the middle innings? It will need to be more than Janish. Not many teams have decent guys to spare. Most teams only have 3 or 4 guys the caliber you are talking about and to move one it would need to be a significant deal.

Take Philly as an example. They have Papelbon, Bastardo and maybe Chad Qualls and that's it. They could probably use one of the Reds' extra infielders, but you won't get one of those 3 and the others are all similar to the Reds suspects. Its not simple at all.

I don't know who is available. It could be an older but successful reliever off the waiver wire. It could be a trade. It could even be a current Reds minor leaguer who the team feels has something in the tank.

But it shouldn't be Jeff Francis. He should be in Louisville starting games.

I note that Francis is pitching for the Reds today in a starting role. Let's see what happens.

mth123
03-31-2012, 02:25 PM
I don't know who is available. It could be an older but successful reliever off the waiver wire. It could be a trade. It could even be a current Reds minor leaguer who the team feels has something in the tank.

But it shouldn't be Jeff Francis. He should be in Louisville starting games.

I note that Francis is pitching for the Reds today in a starting role. Let's see what happens.

As long as Francis is in AAA, he can opt out at any time. Him pitching in AAA doesn't really add the depth we need since there is a real good chance that some other team will offer a spot before the Reds need him. You want him for depth, make him the long reliever/6th starter on the big league roster.

As for who is available, its mostly going to be some guy who isn't good enough to make some team's 7 man pen who is out of options and can't be sent down or a non-roster guy who opted out rather than accepting a minor league deal. Alfredo Simon was just waived by the Orioles. That's a good representation of the caliber your looking at. As the season wears on and teams start to look to next year, guys will become available, but I just don't see a team doing it now unless the Reds take on a big contract or overpay with talent. Mark Lowe may be the best name, but it would probably take Todd Frazier or something similar to get him. I don't see dealing something of value for an interchangeable part.

So, if you are willing to take a chance that Francis will still be around if/when the Reds need him and send him to AAA, who in the organization would you rather have? Brackman? Fisher? Mahay? Joseph? I'd give Clayton Tanner a shot before any of those guys. Brett Tomko might be back in the pitcure or Clay Zavada. I'd rather have Francis than any of those guys.

TheNext44
03-31-2012, 02:54 PM
Janish is starting at SS today. Showcase?

Kc61
03-31-2012, 03:04 PM
As long as Francis is in AAA, he can opt out at any time. Him pitching in AAA doesn't really add the depth we need since there is a real good chance that some other team will offer a spot before the Reds need him. You want him for depth, make him the long reliever/6th starter on the big league roster.

As for who is available, its mostly going to be some guy who isn't good enough to make some team's 7 man pen who is out of options and can't be sent down or a non-roster guy who opted out rather than accepting a minor league deal. Alfredo Simon was just waived by the Orioles. That's a good representation of the caliber your looking at. As the season wears on and teams start to look to next year, guys will become available, but I just don't see a team doing it now unless the Reds take on a big contract or overpay with talent. Mark Lowe may be the best name, but it would probably take Todd Frazier or something similar to get him. I don't see dealing something of value for an interchangeable part.

So, if you are willing to take a chance that Francis will still be around if/when the Reds need him and send him to AAA, who in the organization would you rather have? Brackman? Fisher? Mahay? Joseph? I'd give Clayton Tanner a shot before any of those guys. Brett Tomko might be back in the pitcure or Clay Zavada. I'd rather have Francis than any of those guys.

As I understood, Francis had an option to bolt by March 28. My understanding is he agreed not to exercise that option.

I don't know why you think he has the right to leave the Reds at any time once he goes down to AAA. That's not my understanding, but I obviously don't know for sure.

The Reds will need bullpen innings from relief pitchers. They probably will have at least one starter (Bailey, Chapman probably) in the pen. They need another relief pitcher. Francis isn't one.

RedsManRick
03-31-2012, 03:06 PM
Janish is starting at SS today. Showcase?

Who is the backup SS if not Janish? Reds have been pretty explicit about having a real SS backing up Cozart.

lollipopcurve
03-31-2012, 03:16 PM
Who is the backup SS if not Janish? Reds have been pretty explicit about having a real SS backing up Cozart.

Valdez

757690
03-31-2012, 03:39 PM
As I understood, Francis had an option to bolt by March 28. My understanding is he agreed not to exercise that option.

I don't know why you think he has the right to leave the Reds at any time once he goes down to AAA. That's not my understanding, but I obviously don't know for sure.

The Reds will need bullpen innings from relief pitchers. They probably will have at least one starter (Bailey, Chapman probably) in the pen. They need another relief pitcher. Francis isn't one.

Chapman ain't going to the pen. Not after what he has shown as a starter. If he doesn't make the rotation, he's going to AAA. And he will be back up as a starter in the near future. He's not that far away from being a solid #3 or better starter in the bigs. Just a few minths of deveopment, if that. No way the Reds throw that away to fill a short term hole in middle relief.

Francis will go to the pen before Chapman.

I do agree they need another reliever, but will probably get one off of waivers as rosters get set or use someone they have already sent down. Why else would they move Judy off the 40?

Kc61
03-31-2012, 03:57 PM
Chapman ain't going to the pen. Not after what he has shown as a starter. If he doesn't make the rotation, he's going to AAA. And he will be back up as a starter in the near future. He's not that far away from being a solid #3 or better starter in the bigs. Just a few minths of deveopment, if that. No way the Reds throw that away to fill a short term hole in middle relief.

Francis will go to the pen before Chapman.

I do agree they need another reliever, but will probably get one off of waivers as rosters get set or use someone they have already sent down. Why else would they move Judy off the 40?

If Chapman ain't going to the pen, then Bailey is, or Leake is. Reds can't go with six starters and I don't see them putting Chapman at AAA.

Of course, it is possible somebody goes to AAA for a week or so because a fifth starter won't be needed too early. But that doesn't count. By mid-April, Chapman, Bailey, and Leake will be on the Reds in some capacity.

mth123
03-31-2012, 04:13 PM
As I understood, Francis had an option to bolt by March 28. My understanding is he agreed not to exercise that option.

I don't know why you think he has the right to leave the Reds at any time once he goes down to AAA. That's not my understanding, but I obviously don't know for sure.

The Reds will need bullpen innings from relief pitchers. They probably will have at least one starter (Bailey, Chapman probably) in the pen. They need another relief pitcher. Francis isn't one.




Jeff Francis, in the camp as a non-roster invitee, remains in camp. He had the option to opt out of his contract on Wednesday, but didn’t, although he still has that option.



http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20120328/SPT04/303280159/Reds-trim-roster-31

dougdirt
03-31-2012, 05:07 PM
Mike Leake is a lock for the rotation.... or is he?
On March 29th Dusty Baker was asked if Leake was in the rotation (http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2012/03/29/roster-getting-close/) and said this:

“Why wouldn’t he be?” Baker said. “He’s had two good years. We feel he’s ready.

Then today, Dusty was asked who was in the rotation (http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2012/03/31/baker-last-spots-are-key-spots/) and said this:

Baker didn’t include Leake in the list of definite starters.

“We got (Johnny) Cueto, (Mat) Latos, Bronson (Arroyo),” he said

And Leake?

“I didn’t say Leake,” he said.

So, I think I have finally figured it out.... Dusty Baker is some kind of mad genius who really just likes screwing with us with the things he says.

camisadelgolf
03-31-2012, 05:07 PM
I don't think I made that last point clearly. My point was that even though he does turn 41 in June, he has been a reliever for his entire career. Therefore, his arm has taken less abuse than a 41 year old starter.
I figured that; otherwise, I would've turned it into an argument. :)

LoganBuck
03-31-2012, 05:21 PM
Mike Leake is a lock for the rotation.... or is he?
On March 29th Dusty Baker was asked if Leake was in the rotation (http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2012/03/29/roster-getting-close/) and said this:


Then today, Dusty was asked who was in the rotation (http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2012/03/31/baker-last-spots-are-key-spots/) and said this:


So, I think I have finally figured it out.... Dusty Baker is some kind of mad genius who really just likes screwing with us with the things he says.

John Fay put on Twitter yesterday that scuttlebutt has Leake optioned because the Reds don't need him until the 11th.

dougdirt
03-31-2012, 05:29 PM
John Fay put on Twitter yesterday that scuttlebutt has Leake optioned because the Reds don't need him until the 11th.

Sure, but that would still put Leake in the rotation.

But this brings up another thought, if Leake is the #5, wouldn't that ideally mean Bailey would be the other starter? If Chapman is in the rotation, wouldn't he be your #5 as the guy you want to skip when you get a chance to keep his innings down and have him starting as deep into the season as you can get?

Vottomatic
03-31-2012, 05:40 PM
Mike Leake is a lock for the rotation.... or is he?
On March 29th Dusty Baker was asked if Leake was in the rotation (http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2012/03/29/roster-getting-close/) and said this:


Then today, Dusty was asked who was in the rotation (http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2012/03/31/baker-last-spots-are-key-spots/) and said this:


So, I think I have finally figured it out.... Dusty Baker is some kind of mad genius who really just likes screwing with us with the things he says.

Interesting.

I wonder if that was just to keep us guessing. There is no reason for Leake not to make the rotation.

LoganBuck
03-31-2012, 05:42 PM
Sure, but that would still put Leake in the rotation.

But this brings up another thought, if Leake is the #5, wouldn't that ideally mean Bailey would be the other starter? If Chapman is in the rotation, wouldn't he be your #5 as the guy you want to skip when you get a chance to keep his innings down and have him starting as deep into the season as you can get?

Did Chapman use an option last year? I thought his trip to the minors was a DL move. Why wouldn't you just option him to start of the year? I am fine with optioning Chapman, or putting him in the bullpen until May.

I also read that Janish is being pursued by the Phillies.

So assuming an option of Leake, Francis to AAA, and Janish to Phillies, the Reds are going to start the season with 10 pitchers. Latos, Cueto, Arroyo, Chapman, Bailey, Bray, Ondrusek, Marshall, Arredondo, Lecure. Starting 8 plus Ludwick, Hanigan, Valdez, Francisco, Frazier, and Cairo. They are short 1 by my count.

I think something is up, we shall see.

dougdirt
03-31-2012, 05:42 PM
Interesting.

I wonder if that was just to keep us guessing. There is no reason for Leake not to make the rotation.

To be honest, if we are assuming that Arroyo is in the rotation, I would rather take my chances with Bailey and Chapman in the rotation than Leake. Of course, I would rather Arroyo just go to the bullpen and let the Reds have a rotation that is all 26 or younger too.

dougdirt
03-31-2012, 05:47 PM
Did Chapman use an option last year? I thought his trip to the minors was a DL move. Why wouldn't you just option him to start of the year? I am fine with optioning Chapman, or putting him in the bullpen until May.

I also read that Janish is being pursued by the Phillies.

So assuming an option of Leake, Francis to AAA, and Janish to Phillies, the Reds are going to start the season with 10 pitchers. Latos, Cueto, Arroyo, Chapman, Bailey, Bray, Ondrusek, Marshall, Arredondo, Lecure. Starting 8 plus Ludwick, Hanigan, Valdez, Francisco, Frazier, and Cairo. They are short 1 by my count.

I think something is up, we shall see.
I am pretty sure you are right that Chapman didn't use an option and went to the minors on the DL only.

The rest of what you said.... dum, dum, dum (as in the mystery theater music, not as in dumb [which I do know how to spell]).

Scrap Irony
03-31-2012, 07:17 PM
Fearless Prediction(s):

Reds deal Homer Bailey to the Boston Red Sox for RP/ SP Daniel Bard. Reds' pen goes back to strength. (Though Bard sometimes can't find the strike zone.)

The Reds deal Paul Janish to the Phils for LH specialist Jake Diekman. (Which may be a good move-- and may not... How's that for analysis?!)

757690
03-31-2012, 07:20 PM
Mike Leake is a lock for the rotation.... or is he?
On March 29th Dusty Baker was asked if Leake was in the rotation (http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2012/03/29/roster-getting-close/) and said this:


Then today, Dusty was asked who was in the rotation (http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2012/03/31/baker-last-spots-are-key-spots/) and said this:


So, I think I have finally figured it out.... Dusty Baker is some kind of mad genius who really just likes screwing with us with the things he says.

Again, Dusty says lots of things. I stopped putting much credence into them awhile ago.

On the air yesterday, Marty said he asked Price if Leake relieving meant he was out of the rotation, or at risk of being out of the rotation, and Price said absolutely not. Leake had already reached his pitch count for the spring, so they were just have him relieve to keep him sharp.

Leake is in the rotation. Stop paying attention to Dusty!

Kc61
03-31-2012, 08:06 PM
Again, Dusty says lots of things. I stopped putting much credence into them awhile ago.

On the air yesterday, Marty said he asked Price if Leake relieving meant he was out of the rotation, or at risk of being out of the rotation, and Price said absolutely not. Leake had already reached his pitch count for the spring, so they were just have him relieve to keep him sharp.

Leake is in the rotation. Stop paying attention to Dusty!

I didn't understand where Fay was coming from. If someone should go down for ten days (I mean ten days only) it would seem to be Chapman who is the ostensible fifth starter and has options.

Why would it be Leake?

If so, he needs to go down very soon because when optioned a player needs to stay in the minor leagues for ten days minimum, no?

Vottomatic
03-31-2012, 08:13 PM
Fearless Prediction(s):

Reds deal Homer Bailey to the Boston Red Sox for RP/ SP Daniel Bard. Reds' pen goes back to strength. (Though Bard sometimes can't find the strike zone.)

Yuck. Hate that trade.




The Reds deal Paul Janish to the Phils for LH specialist Jake Diekman. (Which may be a good move-- and may not... How's that for analysis?!)

Looks good on paper.

Tom Servo
03-31-2012, 08:14 PM
MLB TV is showing the Giants/Reds game now, they're going to the 5th and Francis has given up just one hit. I really think Redszone has been sleeping on him.

Kc61
03-31-2012, 08:20 PM
MLB TV is showing the Giants/Reds game now, they're going to the 5th and Francis has given up just one hit. I really think Redszone has been sleeping on him.

I think RedsZone was awake when Francis allowed 11 runs last time.

dougdirt
03-31-2012, 08:22 PM
MLB TV is showing the Giants/Reds game now, they're going to the 5th and Francis has given up just one hit. I really think Redszone has been sleeping on him.

It is really tough to sleep on a guy who can't throw 90 MPH on his best day. Francis is the epitome of fringe Major Leaguer at this point in his career.

Tom Servo
03-31-2012, 08:39 PM
I think RedsZone was awake when Francis allowed 11 runs last time.
Yes but if we play a Redszone favorite game of "if you throw out that 1 start" he has a sparkling era well under 3. :cool:


And I think he's a bit more than a fringe starter. A 4.82 ERA and 1.44 WHIP with 91/39 K/BB ratio over 183 innings and 31 starts in the AL East isn't exactly chump change as there's some value there, and I think he's good enough to be in several teams rotations.

Kc61
03-31-2012, 08:44 PM
Yes but if we play a Redszone favorite game of "if you throw out that 1 start" he has a sparkling era well under 3. :cool:


And I think he's a bit more than a fringe starter. A 4.82 ERA and 1.44 WHIP with 91/39 K/BB ratio over 183 innings and 31 starts in the AL East isn't exactly chump change as there's some value there, and I think he's good enough to be in several teams rotations.

He's pitching well today. Unfortunately for him the Reds rotation is healthy.

My guess is that Jeff goes to AAA, but I guess he could wind up in the bullpen. But i think he is rotation depth for now.

We'll know soon if the Reds ever decide to cut the roster down to size.

dougdirt
03-31-2012, 08:45 PM
Yes but if we play a Redszone favorite game of "if you throw out that 1 start" he has a sparkling era well under 3. :cool:


And I think he's a bit more than a fringe starter. A 4.82 ERA and 1.44 WHIP with 91/39 K/BB ratio over 183 innings and 31 starts in the AL East isn't exactly chump change as there's some value there, and I think he's good enough to be in several teams rotations.

Except Francis was in the weak AL Central last year. 91 strikeouts in 183 innings is incredibly weak.

IslandRed
03-31-2012, 11:58 PM
Sure, but that would still put Leake in the rotation.

But this brings up another thought, if Leake is the #5, wouldn't that ideally mean Bailey would be the other starter? If Chapman is in the rotation, wouldn't he be your #5 as the guy you want to skip when you get a chance to keep his innings down and have him starting as deep into the season as you can get?

Over the last few years, I don't remember the Reds sticking closely to a five-day rotation that involves skipping the fifth starter every chance they get. They tend to go on a five-game rotation as opposed to a five-day rotation. Odds are, once back up from this rumored option-in-name-only, Leake wouldn't be skipped at all unless he needed the rest, same for the rest of the guys. Like you, if they do give someone an extra breather now and then, I think Chapman should be the guy to get it.

Kc61
04-01-2012, 01:10 PM
Francisco traded to Braves for AAA pitching prospect. So it's Valdez, Janish, Frazier, and Harris for two spots, assuming 12 pitchers and 13 position players.

OnBaseMachine
04-01-2012, 01:12 PM
Frazier should be a lock.

Kc61
04-01-2012, 01:15 PM
Frazier should be a lock.

If Frazier could hit lefty, he would be a lock. Reds need a lefty hitter on the bench. They only have two lefty bats on the team among position players. I could see Harris being the lock.

I think it's premature to say who will make it at this point. There easily could be other moves that change the shape of things.

Ron Madden
04-01-2012, 02:28 PM
If Frazier could hit lefty, he would be a lock. Reds need a lefty hitter on the bench. They only have two lefty bats on the team among position players. I could see Harris being the lock.

I think it's premature to say who will make it at this point. There easily could be other moves that change the shape of things.


I'd rather have the best hitter doesn't really matter what side of the plate he hits from. I like Frazier.

_Sir_Charles_
04-01-2012, 03:05 PM
Frazier should be a lock.

I agree. Would it be better if he were left-handed? Sure. But he's so much better than any current left-handed option we have...it's a no-brainer IMO. Willie Harris? No thanks. I don't just want handedness...I want quality. And that ain't Harris.

757690
04-01-2012, 03:10 PM
I'd rather have the best hitter doesn't really matter what side of the plate he hits from. I like Frazier.

Absolutley. Against a tough RH pitcher, I would rather have Frazier than Harris at the plate.

Kc61
04-01-2012, 03:12 PM
I'd rather have the best hitter doesn't really matter what side of the plate he hits from. I like Frazier.

It matters.

The Reds face mostly right handed pitching, like all teams.

They now have Joey Votto; Jay Bruce; and (with Frazier) eleven right handed bats.

They will be very susceptible to right handed pitching. It is out of balance. It matters.

dougdirt
04-01-2012, 03:15 PM
It matters.

The Reds face mostly right handed pitching, like all teams.

They now have Joey Votto; Jay Bruce; and (with Frazier) eleven right handed bats.

They will be very susceptible to right handed pitching. It is out of balance. It matters.

Except if the guy is a better hitter, he is a better hitter and it doesn't matter what side of the plate he is on.

Ron Madden
04-01-2012, 03:18 PM
It matters.

The Reds face mostly right handed pitching, like all teams.

They now have Joey Votto; Jay Bruce; and (with Frazier) eleven right handed bats.

They will be very susceptible to right handed pitching. It is out of balance. It matters.

So you would rather have an inferior hitter just because he's left handed?

That makes no sense at all but many people do buy into that idea for some reason.

Kc61
04-01-2012, 03:19 PM
Except if the guy is a better hitter, he is a better hitter and it doesn't matter what side of the plate he is on.

Looking at one individual, maybe. Looking at the overall makeup of the team, it cannot and should not stay this way.

Last season the Reds killed lefty pitching but were far worse against righties.

That is likely to happen again. The difference may even be more pronounced.

Eleven righty bats and two lefty bats makes no sense.

Maybe Frazier stays and somebody else goes.

But the Reds are making it oh so easy for opposing managers. Just throw righty after righty after righty against them.

HokieRed
04-01-2012, 03:20 PM
I agree we need a left-handed bat, but not Willie Harris. Frazier and Valdez look most likely to me. Wonder if a trade for a LH bat could still be coming?

Kc61
04-01-2012, 03:21 PM
So you would rather have an inferior hitter just because he's left handed?

That makes no sense at all but many people do buy into that idea for some reason.

That's not what I'm saying and you know it.

It's a question of the team's overall balance.

I have nothing against Frazier as one individual.

I am dead set against an offense with eleven righty bats and two lefties.

The Reds will again suffer against right handed pitching. They face righties most of the time. They need more lefty righty balance.

dougdirt
04-01-2012, 03:23 PM
Looking at one individual, maybe. Looking at the overall makeup of the team, it cannot and should not stay this way.

Last season the Reds killed lefty pitching but were far worse against righties.

That is likely to happen again. The difference may even be more pronounced.

Eleven righty bats and two lefty bats makes no sense.

Just throw righty after righty after righty against them.
It makes sense if that breakdown gives you the best team. The Reds aren't going to pinch hit for Phillips, Bruce, Votto, Rolen or Cozart. So now we are talking about pinch hitting a lefty for Stubbs, catcher (though doubtful since Dusty doesn't want to get caught without a back up catcher just in case something happens) or left field which includes Heisey who hits like he is a lefty. Just seems like it is a lot of worrying for something that might come up once or twice a week.

757690
04-01-2012, 03:24 PM
That's not what I'm saying and you know it.

It's a question of the team's overall balance.

I have nothing against Frazier as one individual.

I am dead set against an offense with eleven righty bats and two lefties.

The Reds will again suffer against right handed pitching. They face righties most of the time. They need more lefty righty balance.

If Willie Harris is the third lefty hitter, the Reds will still suffer against RH pitching. I would imagine they would suffer less if Frazier replaces Harris.

mbgrayson
04-01-2012, 03:37 PM
Looking at some splits vs. righties for 2011:

Willie Harris (241 PAs): .230/.325/.306 for an OPS of .631 (.295 BABIP)

Todd Frazier MLB (95 PAs): .195/.263/.391 for an OPS of .654 (.203 BABIP)
Todd Frazier AAA; Can't find 2011 splits....

I'll take Todd Frazier. Even with a very unlucky BABIP, he had a higher OPS than Harris against righties, and of course he is MUCH better vs. lefties.

757690
04-01-2012, 03:40 PM
http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2012/04/01/reds-traded-francisco/


The absence of Francisco leaves, the Reds without a left-handed power bat on the bench.

“It’s hard to have every spot,” Baker said. “If you have every spot, you’d have a $150, $200 million payroll. Even the Red Sox and Yankees don’t have every position covered. You try to cover as many positions as you can. Another big factor is right-left, can he play multiple positions? Do you need some speed? You need some mindset. You need some attitude. A lot of things you need aren’t things that show up in the stat sheet.”

dougdirt
04-01-2012, 03:41 PM
You need some mindset and attitude. Got it.

Kc61
04-01-2012, 03:43 PM
It makes sense if that breakdown gives you the best team. The Reds aren't going to pinch hit for Phillips, Bruce, Votto, Rolen or Cozart. So now we are talking about pinch hitting a lefty for Stubbs, catcher (though doubtful since Dusty doesn't want to get caught without a back up catcher just in case something happens) or left field which includes Heisey who hits like he is a lefty. Just seems like it is a lot of worrying for something that might come up once or twice a week.

Look at the Reds offensive numbers against lefties last year.

Look at the Reds offensive numbers against righties last year.

There is a world of difference. The Reds were far inferior against righties.

This is to be expected when the team lacks lefty hitting.

It was to be expected in 2011. And it is to be expected in 2012.

_Sir_Charles_
04-01-2012, 03:49 PM
And yet at the end of the day we still had a well above average offense.

reds1869
04-01-2012, 03:50 PM
Look at the Reds offensive numbers against lefties last year.

Look at the Reds offensive numbers against righties last year.

There is a world of difference. The Reds were far inferior against righties.

This is to be expected when the team lacks lefty hitting.

It was to be expected in 2011. And it is to be expected in 2012.

vs. LH: .278 .349 .445 .794

VS RH: .250 .319 .398 .717

That is certainly a big drop off. But I honestly don't think Willie Harris is going to push the club over the top. The retooling needed to happen this winter, but the problem is that 29 other teams want more left handed bats, too.

dougdirt
04-01-2012, 03:55 PM
Look at the Reds offensive numbers against lefties last year.

Look at the Reds offensive numbers against righties last year.

There is a world of difference. The Reds were far inferior against righties.

This is to be expected when the team lacks lefty hitting.

It was to be expected in 2011. And it is to be expected in 2012.

Sure, the Reds sucked in 2011 against RHP. But who were the main culprits?

Scott Rolen. Johnny Gomes. Drew Stubbs. Paul Janish. Edgar Renteria. Hanigan, Cairo and Lewis all got on base against righties, but only Cairo had an OPS of .700 (and it was exactly .700) of those three.

The Reds problem against righties wasn't because their bench sucked, it was because their starters can't hit them. Sure, the bench may be an incredibly small issue in 2012, but the largest problem is that there are still several guys who will be starting who really struggle to hit right handed pitching with any consistency. Going from Janish/Renteria to Cozart might help a bit.

Kc61
04-01-2012, 03:57 PM
And yet at the end of the day we still had a well above average offense.

Yes. They also finished third. They were below .500.

The Reds play in a home run stadium. They should have a powerhouse offense. They don't.

The main reason is that the front office consistently fields teams that are overwhelmingly right handed.

What front office worth its salt can't find three left handed hitters worthy of making its ballclub?

I know, the problem is really the pitching, we all love Todd Frazier, he's a great guy, the Reds drafted him, he's better than Harris, etc.

But there is no excuse for a quality ballclub to have so little left handed hitting. None. Maybe they will fix it. Hope so.

Kc61
04-01-2012, 04:02 PM
Sure, the Reds sucked in 2011 against RHP. But who were the main culprits?

Scott Rolen. Johnny Gomes. Drew Stubbs. Paul Janish. Edgar Renteria. Hanigan, Cairo and Lewis all got on base against righties, but only Cairo had an OPS of .700 (and it was exactly .700) of those three.

The Reds problem against righties wasn't because their bench sucked, it was because their starters can't hit them. Sure, the bench may be an incredibly small issue in 2012, but the largest problem is that there are still several guys who will be starting who really struggle to hit right handed pitching with any consistency. Going from Janish/Renteria to Cozart might help a bit.

So the starters can't hit righties. How do we help them? I got it -- an all right handed bench! Might as well go "all in."

Ninth inning. One run game. Reds trail. Tough righty closer on the mound. Two men on base.

Who do we send up? How about Todd Frazier. He hit .195 against righties in the majors last year.

Maybe a lefty batter who fill the bill. Oops, we don't have one. Not one.

reds1869
04-01-2012, 04:02 PM
Yes. They also finished third. They were below .500.

The Reds play in a home run stadium. They should have a powerhouse offense. They don't.

The Reds were 2nd in the NL in HR in 2011. They were 2nd in runs scored and 5th in both OPS and SLG. The argument that the offense isn't strong continues to baffle me.

Ron Madden
04-01-2012, 04:04 PM
Yes. They also finished third. They were below .500.

The Reds play in a home run stadium. They should have a powerhouse offense. They don't.

The main reason is that the front office consistently fields teams that are overwhelmingly right handed.

What front office worth its salt can't find three left handed hitters worthy of making its ballclub?

I know, the problem is really the pitching, we all love Todd Frazier, he's a great guy, the Reds drafted him, he's better than Harris, etc.

But there is no excuse for a quality ballclub to have so little left handed hitting. None. Maybe they will fix it. Hope so.

No offense to you but I think you're putting way too much emphasis on the effects of handedness and making mountains outta molehills.

Kc61
04-01-2012, 04:04 PM
The reds were 2nd in the NL in HR in 2011. They were 2nd in runs scored and 5th in both OPS and SLG. The argument that the offense isn't strong continues to baffle me.

Break it down by lefties and righties. You will then see.

The team crushed lefties. They were by far the tops in the NL against lefties. That caused the overall numbers to be better.

The team was ok against righties. I don't have the numbers but have posted about this dozens of times with the numbers. Just ok.

Unfortunately, the Reds usually face righties.

dougdirt
04-01-2012, 04:08 PM
So the starters can't hit righties. How do we help them? I got it -- an all right handed bench! Might as well go "all in."

Ninth inning. One run game. Reds trail. Tough righty closer on the mound. Two men on base.

Who do we send up? How about Todd Frazier. He hit .195 against righties in the majors last year.

Maybe a lefty batter who fill the bill. Oops, we don't have one. Not one.

Who is on the bench? Maybe I go with Heisey. Maybe I go with Mesoraco. Maybe it is Frazier (his splits in a small sample size doesn't really tell us much....).

klw
04-01-2012, 04:18 PM
via Fay

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2012/04/01/reds-traded-francisco/


Baker said the roster will likely be set before the Reds break camp, possibly today.

“We got a full day of could bes, maybes,’ Baker said.

reds1869
04-01-2012, 04:18 PM
Break it down by lefties and righties. You will then see.

NL Rank L/R

HR 9/1

BA 1/10

OPS 1/8

Yes, there is a definite drop off. I'm not arguing that point. But the fact remains that the Reds overall offensive numbers were among the best in baseball. As many have stated pitching was this club's biggest problem last season. I'd love to have a perfectly balanced lineup but I'll take ours over all but a very small handful of others.

757690
04-01-2012, 05:02 PM
On WLW today, Baker said that Francis is going to AAA to start. He said they weren't comfortable with Francis as a reliever, since he'd only done it once before. He added that teams need more than 5 starters each year, so he's confident Francis will be with the Reds at some point.

mth123
04-01-2012, 05:03 PM
Dusty said in pre-game that Francis is going to AAA. I think its a mistake.

757690
04-01-2012, 05:10 PM
Dusty said in pre-game that Francis is going to AAA. I think its a mistake.

Backup starting pitchers are more valuable and harder to find than middle relievers. I'm betting the Reds pick at least one reliever off of waivers before opening day.

mth123
04-01-2012, 05:12 PM
Backup starting pitchers are more valuable and harder to find than middle relievers. I'm betting the Reds pick at least one reliever off of waivers before opening day.

Agreed, but I'd guess Francis is gone to some other team before the Reds need him.

Kc61
04-01-2012, 05:13 PM
Reading between the lines --

If Francis is going down, the Reds have eleven pitchers.

I think it is safe to assume that they will go with 12 eventually. Either on opening day or soon after.

Sounds to me like Bailey and Chapman are both staying in Cincy. Also sounds like a reliever will be added from some place.

dougdirt
04-01-2012, 05:17 PM
On WLW today, Baker said that Francis is going to AAA to start. He said they weren't comfortable with Francis as a reliever, since he'd only done it once before. He added that teams need more than 5 starters each year, so he's confident Francis will be with the Reds at some point.

So Bailey is in the rotation then?

mth123
04-01-2012, 05:34 PM
If the Reds are going to make a waiver claim or a pick-up of a newly set free guy, John Grabow might not be a bad choice. Even last year when he wasn't great, he was pretty good against LH Hitters. With Marshall probably closing and Chapman a possibility to start at some point, the middle relief corps is short on lefty arms. I don't really like any of the in house options at this point. The have some guys who may develop (Tanner, Joseph, Webb, Manno), but I'm not thrilled with Mahay and Zavada was underwhelming.

Kc61
04-01-2012, 05:42 PM
If the Reds are going to make a waiver claim or a pick-up of a newly set free guy, John Grabow might not be a bad choice. Even last year when he wasn't great, he was pretty good against LH Hitters. With Marshall probably closing and Chapman a possibility to start at some point, the middle relief corps is short on lefty arms. I don't really like any of the in house options at this point. The have some guys who may develop (Tanner, Joseph, Webb, Manno), but I'm not thrilled with Mahay and Zavada was underwhelming.

If Chapman is in the pen, Grabow would be the fourth lefty reliever. Let Walt figure it out.

Vottomatic
04-01-2012, 05:49 PM
The more I listen to all of this, the more the Reds are starting to look like a trainwreck.

Or maybe it's simply Dusty doing too much talking about things he has no clue about. Maybe management should gag him a bit.

It's frustrating as a fan to read too much speculation and not enough solid decisionmaking by the club.

mth123
04-01-2012, 05:56 PM
If Chapman is in the pen, Grabow would be the fourth lefty reliever. Let Walt figure it out.

But if Marshall is closing, the 3 lefties and three righties in the other spots sounds pretty good to me. If the none of the lefties were closing, I'd say they have plenty. But with Marshall closing and Chapman possibly starting, it leaves only Bray as a lefty to turn line-ups around in the middle innings.

mattfeet
04-01-2012, 07:19 PM
Francis to AAA as starter

Jocketty confirms that Francis is going to Triple-A as a starter. Possibly will go to bullpen later. Roster will be set early tomorrow #reds

_Sir_Charles_
04-01-2012, 07:24 PM
Yes. They also finished third. They were below .500.

The Reds play in a home run stadium. They should have a powerhouse offense. They don't.

The main reason is that the front office consistently fields teams that are overwhelmingly right handed.

What front office worth its salt can't find three left handed hitters worthy of making its ballclub?

I know, the problem is really the pitching, we all love Todd Frazier, he's a great guy, the Reds drafted him, he's better than Harris, etc.

But there is no excuse for a quality ballclub to have so little left handed hitting. None. Maybe they will fix it. Hope so.

Again, all true. But I also foresee our offense improving, I see our bullpen improved and our starting pitching improved. Toss in the not-so-little-fact that the Brewers & Cardinals are both worse as well...and I don't see a lack of lefties being much of a problem.

That being said, the Angels don't seem to be too enamored of Bobby Abreu (not that I am either)...but he might be useful if the cost isn't too high.

_Sir_Charles_
04-01-2012, 07:28 PM
Break it down by lefties and righties. You will then see.

The team crushed lefties. They were by far the tops in the NL against lefties. That caused the overall numbers to be better.

The team was ok against righties. I don't have the numbers but have posted about this dozens of times with the numbers. Just ok.

Unfortunately, the Reds usually face righties.

And yet, while we DID face mostly righties...all of the ab's count. So while I wouldn't be against getting another LH bat, I don't want to take one that's inferior to a current bat. Considering the # of runs we scored last year (and the year before) I'd say we're doing okay against righties as long as we pound lefties. Bottom line is scoring the runs...however that occurs.

_Sir_Charles_
04-01-2012, 07:38 PM
You know with all the arguing and debating about who goes where and who starts and who relieves...it won't surprise me one bit if it stays exactly like they planned it from the beginning of spring (minus Madson/Masset injuries). Chapman starting in AAA, Francis starting in AAA, Bailey in the rotation, Bronson in the rotation and fill out the bullpen from some AAA arms until Masset is healthy. My guess is Fisher & one of the new guys we picked up like a Judy or Mahay (although a rookie could be interesting too). Is it optimal? No. But that's what happens when injuries happen. AAA farm hands have to step up.

Last 2 bench slots for Valdez & Frazier. Harris let go or sent to AAA, Janish sent to AAA.

The only change I'm guessing we'll see from what we thought at the beginning of spring is the bullpen replacements for injuries. The main parts stay the course. Just my 2 cents.

Kc61
04-01-2012, 09:20 PM
Again, all true. But I also foresee our offense improving, I see our bullpen improved and our starting pitching improved. Toss in the not-so-little-fact that the Brewers & Cardinals are both worse as well...and I don't see a lack of lefties being much of a problem.

That being said, the Angels don't seem to be too enamored of Bobby Abreu (not that I am either)...but he might be useful if the cost isn't too high.

Walt worked mightily to improve the pitching, I can see that, and the defense should remain very good.

As for the offense, it might improve, but this is highly speculative. It could also be worse. Two rookies; reliance on Rolen with his injury history; and an outfield that (other than Bruce) is very iffy to me offensively.

I still think the offense is way overly right handed, but I'm not sure Walt cares too much about the offense. He may feel the offense is sufficient and his efforts have been in the pitching department. Can't criticize that, pitching wins, and Walt has really tried to improve it. Tough luck on the Madson injury though.

757690
04-01-2012, 10:36 PM
The Reds are making their roster decisions tonight, amd will tell the players tomorrow morning, I'm guessing.

Here's my prediction:

Janish traded or set down to AAA

Frazier, Valdez and Harris make the team

Leake moved to the pen

Rotation - Cueto, Latos, Arroyo, Bailey, Chapman.
Bullpen - Marshall, Arredondo, Bray, Ondrusek, LeCure, Leake.

Team goes with 11 pitchers for now. With Leake and LeCure able to go more the one inning, they should get by with the light schedule in the first few weeks.

I know it's a long shot, but that's my guess.

cinreds21
04-01-2012, 10:40 PM
Why Leake to the bullpen? You do realize he was our second best pitcher last year, right?

757690
04-01-2012, 10:43 PM
Why Leake to the bullpen? You do realize he was our second best pitcher last year, right?

Not what I would do, what I think the Reds will do.

He's the only one of the starters with relieving experience. And he'll be first to start when someone gets injured, which will happen, probably sooner then later. I just think they really want Chapman starting in the bigs right now.

Vottomatic
04-01-2012, 10:50 PM
Chapman in the bigs?

It's all about marketing and money anymore. Dude should start out in Louisville and work on his 3rd pitch. We already got 5 starters and we only need 4 for the first 3 or 4 weeks. What a stupid move if they do it.

Kc61
04-01-2012, 11:20 PM
The Reds are making their roster decisions tonight, amd will tell the players tomorrow morning, I'm guessing.

Here's my prediction:

Janish traded or set down to AAA

Frazier, Valdez and Harris make the team

Leake moved to the pen

Rotation - Cueto, Latos, Arroyo, Bailey, Chapman.
Bullpen - Marshall, Arredondo, Bray, Ondrusek, LeCure, Leake.

Team goes with 11 pitchers for now. With Leake and LeCure able to go more the one inning, they should get by with the light schedule in the first few weeks.

I know it's a long shot, but that's my guess.

I don't think this is such a long shot. It seems very possible IMO. Good analysis.

Dusty didn't want to commit to Leake in the rotation the other day. The Reds would probably spin it that they don't want to overwork Leake so some early games in the pen will help him overall.

And it puts Chapman in the rotation, which in my view is the correct move. Chapman's stuff is too good to be racking up strikeouts for Louisville.

Purely guessing, I think you may have nailed it.

And it enables them to keep Frazier and keep the lefty hitting Harris both for awhile.

camisadelgolf
04-02-2012, 12:10 AM
Why aren't more people talking about the possibility of Chapman in the bullpen to start the year and then switching him to the rotation later? I would cut down on his innings and keep him in an important role for the entire year. If needed, you could option him for a few weeks to help transition him to starter in August or so.

cincrazy
04-02-2012, 10:10 AM
Chapman in the bigs?

It's all about marketing and money anymore. Dude should start out in Louisville and work on his 3rd pitch. We already got 5 starters and we only need 4 for the first 3 or 4 weeks. What a stupid move if they do it.

If his location is on, his first two pitches are so good, he doesn't even need a third pitch. Randy Johnson was strictly a fastball-slider pitcher. And Chapman is one of the few with a similar arm to Randy.

CySeymour
04-02-2012, 10:23 AM
Why aren't more people talking about the possibility of Chapman in the bullpen to start the year and then switching him to the rotation later? I would cut down on his innings and keep him in an important role for the entire year. If needed, you could option him for a few weeks to help transition him to starter in August or so.

I think if you did that, then before he went to the rotation, he'd have to go down to AAA to build his arm back up to go 6 innings.

dougdirt
04-02-2012, 10:25 AM
I think if you did that, then before he went to the rotation, he'd have to go down to AAA to build his arm back up to go 6 innings.

Chapman hasn't gone 6 innings since 2010.... he might need to go there now in order to get there. He has never, at least on US soil, gone 6 innings in back to back starts. Now, he only has what, 15 starts or so between his AAA time and his last two in ST where he even would have been allowed to go 6 innings, so there isn't much data there to work with. But, still, he has never done it before.

Kc61
04-02-2012, 10:43 AM
Chapman went five innings his last two spring training starts. I see no reason why he can't go five innings or maybe slightly more in his first couple of regular season starts.

Then, he can move on to six full innings.

We'll probably know today what the Reds intend for Chapman, but it's not as if the other Reds starters typically work 7 or 8 innings. Some of them are lucky to be around when the fifth inning begins.

757690
04-02-2012, 11:56 AM
Chapman went five innings his last two spring training starts. I see no reason why he can't go five innings or maybe slightly more in his first couple of regular season starts.

Then, he can move on to six full innings.

We'll probably know today what the Reds intend for Chapman, but it's not as if the other Reds starters typically work 7 or 8 innings. Some of them are lucky to be around when the fifth inning begins.

Every great journey starts with a first step. ;)

CySeymour
04-02-2012, 11:58 AM
Chapman hasn't gone 6 innings since 2010.... he might need to go there now in order to get there. He has never, at least on US soil, gone 6 innings in back to back starts. Now, he only has what, 15 starts or so between his AAA time and his last two in ST where he even would have been allowed to go 6 innings, so there isn't much data there to work with. But, still, he has never done it before.

That's true. But my point was more of if you send him to the bullpen to start the season, if you want to have him go back to starting, you'd probably need to send him to AAA to build his arm strength back to pitch 5+ innings.

Kc61
04-02-2012, 01:46 PM
Janish cut.

757690
04-02-2012, 01:48 PM
Janish cut.

Sent down? Waived? traded?

redsmetz
04-02-2012, 01:52 PM
Sent down? Waived? traded?

That's my question too. I'm guessing released and that gives the club ten days to work out a deal with another club. I mean even Paul Janish can bring the proverbial "bag of balls."

CySeymour
04-02-2012, 01:52 PM
I thought Janish had options?

Kc61
04-02-2012, 01:53 PM
Just read he was cut. Also read that Chapman is beginning in the pen because Bray isn't 100 percent yet. That's all I know.

757690
04-02-2012, 01:53 PM
Chapman to the pen according to Baker, via Fay twitter.

Well that sucks, IMO.

mattfeet
04-02-2012, 01:54 PM
Chapman to the pen according to Baker, via Fay twitter.

Well that sucks, IMO.

Agreed. :thumbdown::thumbdown::thumbdown::thumbdown:

757690
04-02-2012, 01:55 PM
Baker did emphasis that Chapman is a starter, which I hope means he's a reliever for a month or so, then goes back to AAA to work as a starter.

Kc61
04-02-2012, 01:58 PM
Baker did emphasis that Chapman is a starter, which I hope means he's a reliever for a month or so, then goes back to AAA to work as a starter.

I hope Chapman spends as little time at AAA as possible. I want that left arm in Cincy. Glad he is opening with the Reds.

Guessing that Reds will open with 11 pitchers and Frazier/Harris both on the bench. Harris provides a lefty bat, although not too potent a lefty bat. Frazier provides versatility and good righty power.

Kc61
04-02-2012, 02:00 PM
The Reds are making their roster decisions tonight, amd will tell the players tomorrow morning, I'm guessing.

Here's my prediction:

Janish traded or set down to AAA

Frazier, Valdez and Harris make the team

Leake moved to the pen

Rotation - Cueto, Latos, Arroyo, Bailey, Chapman.
Bullpen - Marshall, Arredondo, Bray, Ondrusek, LeCure, Leake.

Team goes with 11 pitchers for now. With Leake and LeCure able to go more the one inning, they should get by with the light schedule in the first few weeks.

I know it's a long shot, but that's my guess.

I think you got it right, except Chapman is in the pen rather than Leake.

Reds Fanatic
04-02-2012, 02:15 PM
Janish was optioned to AAA.

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2012/04/02/janish-optioned-chapman-to-bullpen/

reds44
04-02-2012, 02:28 PM
So wait, can somebody explain what the roster is to me? Does this look right?

Cueto
Latos
Arroyo
Leake
Bailey

Chapman
Marshall
Arredondo
Bray
Ondrusek
LeCure

Mes
Hanigan

Votto
Phillips
Cozart
Rolen
Cairo
Frazier
Valdez

Ludwick
Heisey
Stubbs
Bruce

Isn't that only 24? Did Harris make it?

Kc61
04-02-2012, 02:30 PM
So wait, can somebody explain what the roster is to me? Does this look right?

Cueto
Latos
Arroyo
Leake
Bailey

Chapman
Marshall
Arredondo
Bray
Ondrusek
LeCure

Mes
Hanigan

Votto
Phillips
Cozart
Rolen
Cairo
Frazier
Valdez

Ludwick
Heisey
Stubbs
Bruce

Isn't that only 24? Did Harris make it?

Harris made it. He's playing today.

OesterPoster
04-02-2012, 02:40 PM
So Bray is on the club, but he can't pitch right away?

RedsManRick
04-02-2012, 02:46 PM
So Bray is on the club, but he can't pitch right away?

My understanding was that he can pitch, he's just not sharp so they don't want him in high leverage situations.

Ron Madden
04-02-2012, 03:04 PM
Hell I don't wanna see Valdez or Harris in high leverage situations.

LOL.. ;)

HokieRed
04-02-2012, 03:09 PM
Hell I don't wanna see Valdez or Harris in high leverage situations.

LOL.. ;)

Ditto.

WildcatFan
04-02-2012, 03:20 PM
Harris made it. He's playing today.

So Valdez is most likely gone?

Kc61
04-02-2012, 03:24 PM
So Valdez is most likely gone?

No. Valdez, Frazier, Harris all apparently make the team. For now, Reds only using 11 pitchers.

Eventually, Reds will need 12 pitchers and a position player will have to be removed from the roster.

Gallen5862
04-02-2012, 03:58 PM
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

Indians Release Fred Lewis
By Ben Nicholson-Smith [April 2 at 1:26pm CST]

Lewis posted a .230/.321/.317 line in 210 plate appearances for Cincinnati last year, but he spent time on the disabled list with a strained right oblique muscle. The 31-year-old played both corner outfield positions for the Reds, who signed him for $900K. Lewis, a left-handed hitter, has a track record of success against right-handed pitching (.780 career OPS).

Gallen5862
04-02-2012, 03:59 PM
Should the Reds try to sign Lewis to a minor league deal? Could he help the Reds bench?

Edd Roush
04-02-2012, 04:20 PM
Should the Reds try to sign Lewis to a minor league deal? Could he help the Reds bench?

I always liked Fred's ability to get on base vs. righties. If we would accept a AAA assignment, I like him as good depth if injuries hit our corner outfielders.

MikeS21
04-02-2012, 04:50 PM
Hell I don't wanna see Valdez or Harris in high leverage situations.

LOL.. ;)
Seems like I remember saying the same thing about Cairo a couple years ago. :D

WildcatFan
04-02-2012, 04:55 PM
No. Valdez, Frazier, Harris all apparently make the team. For now, Reds only using 11 pitchers.

Eventually, Reds will need 12 pitchers and a position player will have to be removed from the roster.

A wealth of infielders.

Blitz Dorsey
04-02-2012, 06:32 PM
People say we need left-handed bats. C'mon y'all, you're obviously forgetting about my boy Willie Harris!

Seriously though, right now, Harris is THE left-handed bat off the bench. You know he's going to play pretty much every game in a pinch-hitting role. How he performs could be the difference in a couple wins or losses.

Sea Ray
04-03-2012, 10:23 AM
People say we need left-handed bats. C'mon y'all, you're obviously forgetting about my boy Willie Harris!

Seriously though, right now, Harris is THE left-handed bat off the bench. You know he's going to play pretty much every game in a pinch-hitting role. How he performs could be the difference in a couple wins or losses.

If he's going to be the LH pinch hitter off the bench, then who spells Cozart at SS? Even if he stays healthy, he'll be beat tired by late June.

Gallen5862
04-04-2012, 02:48 PM
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

Stinson, Rodriguez On Waivers
By Ben Nicholson-Smith [April 4 at 10:37am CST]
Here's where we'll keep track of today's minor moves...

The Mets have placed right-handed pitchers Josh Stinson and Armando Rodriguez on outright waivers, according to Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com. The move clears two 40-man roster spots for the Mets, who risk losing the pitchers to a claim. Stinson appeared in 14 games with the Mets last year, but spent most of the season in the upper minors, where he posted a 5.94 ERA in 109 innings. Rodriguez pitched at Class A in 2011, posting a 3.96 ERA in 16 starts.

Gallen5862
04-04-2012, 02:50 PM
Are either Stinson or Rodriquez worth a waiver claim?

PuffyPig
04-04-2012, 02:54 PM
If he's going to be the LH pinch hitter off the bench, then who spells Cozart at SS? Even if he stays healthy, he'll be beat tired by late June.


Harris is an OF. Valdez is the back up SS.

OnBaseMachine
04-04-2012, 03:54 PM
Why do I have an awful feeling the Reds are going to send Todd Frazier to Louisville to make room for Alfredo Simon? Of Valdez and Harris, Frazier is by far the most deserving to make the team.

bucksfan2
04-04-2012, 03:57 PM
Why do I have an awful feeling the Reds are going to send Todd Frazier to Louisville to make room for Alfredo Simon? Of Valdez and Harris, Frazier is by far the most deserving to make the team.

When has "deserved" really mattered when dealing with an early season roster? Frazier may be sent down because he has options and it keeps the best 40 players on the 40 man roster. While Frazier may deserve to be kept on the bench, has he really done anything to say "that is my position and I'm not giving it up"?

reds44
04-04-2012, 04:11 PM
I'm not sure I get Simon on the roster over Hoover anyways.

It should be here Harris who goes, but it will probably be Frazier. I don't think it's that big of a deal either. When he's needed, he'll be there.

OnBaseMachine
04-04-2012, 04:20 PM
An unknown team has claimed Luis Valbuena off waivers from the Blue Jays.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/04/luis-valbuena-claimed-off-waivers.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

I'd take Valbuena over Wilson Valdez. Valbuena has hit well in the minors (.855 OPS in 937 AAA PA's) and he's only 26.

The Operator
04-04-2012, 04:28 PM
Are either Stinson or Rodriquez worth a waiver claim?I can't vouch for his athletic abilities, but Stinson is one heck of a snappy dresser:

http://www.latimes.com/media/photo/2010-01/51797516.jpg

reds44
04-04-2012, 04:54 PM
Valbuena was claimed by the Cubs.

pedro
04-04-2012, 05:10 PM
I can't vouch for his athletic abilities, but Stinson is one heck of a snappy dresser:

http://www.latimes.com/media/photo/2010-01/51797516.jpg

I hear his bat speed was Legen..... wait for it..........DARY

reds44
04-04-2012, 05:16 PM
Frazier was sent to AAA.

redsmetz
04-04-2012, 05:18 PM
Frazier was sent to AAA.

I thought most folks assumed Simon would need to go on the DL to start the season. Is this a formality to get him on the 25 man, place him on the DL and then bring Todd back with the rule that allows calling a guy back earlier than 10 days?

reds44
04-04-2012, 05:19 PM
I thought most folks assumed Simon would need to go on the DL to start the season. Is this a formality to get him on the 25 man, place him on the DL and then bring Todd back with the rule that allows calling a guy back earlier than 10 days?
I would say no. They could have just straight put him on the DL, not to mention you knew the Reds wouldn't carry only 11 pitchers for long.

He'll be back.

membengal
04-04-2012, 05:29 PM
Sorry for Frazier...that's really hard. He's earned a spot on this roster. Hope he's back sooner than later.

OnBaseMachine
04-04-2012, 05:29 PM
The Reds bench is weak. Wilson Valdez and Willie Harris over Todd Frazier. Wow.

reds44
04-04-2012, 05:32 PM
Valdez has to make it. Either him or Janish.

Harris should have been the one to go, but it's obvious the Reds don't want to have no lefties on the bench.

RedsManRick
04-04-2012, 05:43 PM
Valdez has to make it. Either him or Janish.

Harris should have been the one to go, but it's obvious the Reds don't want to have no lefties on the bench.

Yep. Miguel Cairo and Ryan Ludwick have Todd Frazier's possible spot. He had no chance of filling the "LH bat" or "backup SS" roles.

kaldaniels
04-04-2012, 05:51 PM
Yep. Miguel Cairo and Ryan Ludwick have Todd Frazier's possible spot. He had no chance of filling the "LH bat" or "backup SS" roles.

Ludwicks the Opening Day starter. Don't you mean Heisey? :D

Redsfan320
04-04-2012, 06:21 PM
Could Harris not have played SS once every two weeks? He's got the infield skills/ range for 2B, and the arm for the OF, so what's the problem with him getting a couple starts a month out there? Send Valdez's butt to AAA, and keep poor Frazier on the team!

/angry rant... will now continue with pre-Opening Day happiness.

320

cinreds21
04-04-2012, 06:32 PM
Why did some assume Simon would go on the disabled list? I assumed that one of the extra bench bats would go down.

redsmetz
04-04-2012, 06:43 PM
Why did some assume Simon would go on the disabled list? I assumed that one of the extra bench bats would go down.

I thought I had read in some of the discussion of his pick up that he was possibly dealing with some type of injury. I think I'm the only one who mentioned it in this thread.

kaldaniels
04-04-2012, 06:52 PM
Do you expect Rolen to be healthy all season?

If yes, keep Frazier in Cincy as a spot player.

If no, send him to AAA to play 3B every day. Call him up when needed.

Stepping back and looking from a distance, I've got to think Fraizer v Valdez/Harris for the last bench spot on Opening Day can't make that much of a difference come the end of the 162 game season. Could have gone either way on this one.

TStuck
04-04-2012, 06:57 PM
Cairo, Valdez, and Harris.......now there's a trio that will strike fear in the bullpens of the Red's opponents in the late innings!!!!
Realistically, those 3 and whichever of Heisey/Ludwick aren't playing are the only bats Dusty will readily use for PH duties. He'll try to avoid using the other catcher (Mes or Hani) to not be caught without a backup in the event of injury.
Without Frazier's bat available, the Red's bench looks like an army taking pop guns into an artillery battle. It's just so much weak sauce.

Honestly, I do like Cairo a lot and don't mean to short sell him, but gosh that's gonna look like the utilityman convention on the Red's bench.

RedsManRick
04-04-2012, 07:45 PM
Ludwicks the Opening Day starter. Don't you mean Heisey? :D

Nope. Unless, I suppose, you count Willie Harris as your backup CF, Hesiey's got that going for him. Ludwick is here for his bat and only his bat. Heisey's defense makes him a solid 4th in any event.

kaldaniels
04-04-2012, 09:09 PM
Nope. Unless, I suppose, you count Willie Harris as your backup CF, Hesiey's got that going for him. Ludwick is here for his bat and only his bat. Heisey's defense makes him a solid 4th in any event.

It was said in jest,but my statement is foreshadowing a disappointing Ludwick getting too many ABs compared to Chris. Now if Ludwick comes out with a hot bat, who am I to complain? :D

IslandRed
04-04-2012, 09:29 PM
Yep. Miguel Cairo and Ryan Ludwick have Todd Frazier's possible spot. He had no chance of filling the "LH bat" or "backup SS" roles.

Agreed. And I wouldn't be too comfortable if I was Harris, either; if his job is to be the left-handed pinch-hitter, one of those Jocketty likes better might pop up on the waiver wire.

powersackers
04-05-2012, 01:22 AM
Cairo is a roadblock to Frazier. It's not good in the long run to let Frazier waste ABs in AAA if he's the next 3b of the Reds after Rolen. Cairo's veteran presence and 1M contract is what is keeping him on the team. I like him just fine, but there's costs to having him here and Frazier knows that more than anyone.

WebScorpion
04-05-2012, 01:51 AM
I'd actually rather have Frazier in AAA playing every day than sitting on the bench only to play once per week giving Rolen a breather. Now that Francisco is gone, he needs to concentrate on playing 3rd base and practice all the nuances every day until we need (Rolen retires or is injured) him. :thumbup: