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View Full Version : New Defensive Metric at Fangraphs



Scrap Irony
03-19-2012, 04:53 PM
All of the Defensive Runs Saved data on Fan Graphs (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/fielding-bible-volume-iii-defensive-runs-saved-updated/) has been updated to reflect the numbers available in the Fielding Bible Volume III and can be seen on individual player pages. Unfortunately, it doesn't seem to show 2011 numbers, so all of this is based on the 2010 season.

First, the good:
-- Everyone in the Red lineup, aside from Drew Stubbs, ranks as better than average.
Jay Bruce is a RF god (or at least was in 2010).
Joey Votto has improved so much defensively that he's among the best in the game.
Scott Rolen is still awesome with the leather.
Chris Heisey can play all three OF positions well enough to play there.
Brandon Phillips is well above average.
Ryan Ludwick is a better than league average RF who should be able to play more than passably in LF.

The Bad
-- Drew Stubbs is an average CF. Barely. Chris Heisey is better.
-- Brandon Phillips is not the best defensive 2B in baseball. He's good only.

WildcatFan
03-19-2012, 05:28 PM
Ryan Ludwick is a better than league average RF who should be able to play more than passably in LF.

Finally, the sentence that perfectly sums up Ryan Ludwick. We spent a whole thread on that a few weeks ago. ;)

PuffyPig
03-19-2012, 06:12 PM
Brandon Phillips is well above average.
The Bad
-- Drew Stubbs is an average CF. Barely. Chris Heisey is better.
-- Brandon Phillips is not the best defensive 2B in baseball. He's good only.


Which is it for Phillips? "Well above average" or "good only"?

I have trouble believing any defensive metric that rates Stubbs as "barely average".

_Sir_Charles_
03-19-2012, 06:32 PM
Which is it for Phillips? "Well above average" or "good only"?

I have trouble believing any defensive metric that rates Stubbs as "barely average".

Same for disbelieving the "good only" too. Sorry, I'm just not buying it on both Stubbs & Phillips. That being said, I also think Rolen is considerably overrated defensively at this point. He's very steady, but his range and quickness have diminished noticeably IMO.

dougdirt
03-19-2012, 07:05 PM
Same for disbelieving the "good only" too. Sorry, I'm just not buying it on both Stubbs & Phillips. That being said, I also think Rolen is considerably overrated defensively at this point. He's very steady, but his range and quickness have diminished noticeably IMO.

With Rolen though, he used to be flat out incredible. So the fact that he is merely being considered good at this point isn't too surprising.

jojo
03-19-2012, 08:42 PM
Same for disbelieving the "good only" too. Sorry, I'm just not buying it on both Stubbs & Phillips. That being said, I also think Rolen is considerably overrated defensively at this point. He's very steady, but his range and quickness have diminished noticeably IMO.

The numbers I saw suggested Phillips was a plus defender.

lollipopcurve
03-19-2012, 09:01 PM
I have trouble believing any defensive metric that rates Stubbs as "barely average".

I'm not a big fan of the defensive metrics for individual players right now, but I do think Stubbs ' defense is quite overrated on this board. He looks a lot better than he actually is, IMO.

jojo
03-19-2012, 09:12 PM
I'm not a big fan of the defensive metrics for individual players right now, but I do think Stubbs ' defense is quite overrated on this board. He looks a lot better than he actually is, IMO.

I agree that Stubbs has not become the uber defender we thought he could become.

Scrap Irony
03-19-2012, 09:41 PM
The numbers I saw suggested Phillips was a plus defender.

He was five runs or so on the plus side. Not Gold Glove but above average.

Sorry if I wasn't clear. Don't know what I was thinking (other than trying to get the thread started while talking with my wife about leaving school early at 4:00).

jojo
03-19-2012, 10:03 PM
He was five runs or so on the plus side. Not Gold Glove but above average.

Sorry if I wasn't clear. Don't know what I was thinking (other than trying to get the thread started while talking with my wife about leaving school early at 4:00).

Actually both DRS and UZR rank him as the best defensive second baseman in the NL last season so that would be "Gold Glove".

He was ranked between the 4th best (UZR/150) and 6th best (DRS) defensive second basemen in the majors last season. That's better than just good IMHO.

The company he is in all have excellent defensive reputations. I'm not seeing a reason to call shenanigans on the system.

Scrap Irony
03-19-2012, 10:36 PM
I didn't call shenanigans on the system at all. Just provided defensive food for thought.

And I was looking at 2010 numbers, not 2011 (as they aren't yet showing/ available on individual player pages). In 2010, Utley was considered head and shoulders above everyone in the National League with a 14 DRS. Phillips was a distant second in the NL.

jojo
03-19-2012, 10:46 PM
I didn't call shenanigans on the system at all. Just provided defensive food for thought.

And I was looking at 2010 numbers, not 2011 (as they aren't yet showing/ available on individual player pages). In 2010, Utley was considered head and shoulders above everyone in the National League with a 14 DRS. Phillips was a distant second in the NL.

The 2011 numbers are available on fangraphs-just not in the aggregate section.

Scrap Irony
03-19-2012, 10:55 PM
Now that I found the DRS numbers for 2011, let's looks at the Red ranks among those that qualified for the innings cutoff at each position in the National League:

1B Votto (1)
2B Phillips (1)
3B Rolen (3)*
SS Cozart (N/A)
LF Ludwick/ Heisey (4)#
CF Stubbs (8)
RF Bruce (7)

Rolen's numbers come from 2010, his last full season, while the Ludwick/ Heisey platoon assumes equal playing time splits.

If you add in both 2010 and 2011 and average it out:
1B Votto (1)
2B Phillips (1-T)
SS Cozart (N/A)
3B Rolen (4)
LF Ludwick/ Heisey (2)
CF Stubbs (8)
RF Bruce (3)

Statistically, it looks as if the Reds should be heads and shoulders above every other NL team.

CySeymour
03-20-2012, 10:19 AM
Has Heisey played enough to statistically say he's better then Stubbs? But I do agree, Stubbs reputation hasn't matched up with the actual stats so far. And Doug hit it right on the head with Rolen: Historically, he's one of the elite defenders at 3rd of all time. Which means at this point in his career, he's regressed to damn good.