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gonelong
03-30-2012, 12:06 PM
Estimate: 90 Ws

Welcome to Gonelong's 11th annual Reds Win prediction thread. The history of the prediction threads are at the end of this post. For the 3rd time in 10 seasons tORG overestimated the Reds win total by double digits (+ 10.1).

Hopefully the Sundeck will once again organize a thread and take up this friendly challenge from the ORG. For two years running tORG got "SunDecked" in this challenge so congratulations is owed (again) to all the SunDeck members who participated.:clap: tORG and Sundeck are now tied 2-2 in the head-to-head challenge with the SunDeck looking to pull ahead this season. When someone sets up a Sundeck Thread, send me a PM and I'll link it from here for historical purposes.

As always, the prediction thread request is simple.

1. Give a number of Wins you project for the Reds 2011 season.
2. Make the prediction as honestly as you can. It's a prediction, not a hope. (Please, no 162-0 "predictions")
3. Feel free to wait for opening day to make your prediction. I'll not honor any changes in you guestimate, too much work. ;)
4. Place your Number of expected wins at the beginning of the post and then any commentary below. This makes it easier to go back and count.

When I return from opening day I'll compute the average guestimate for tORG.

My son is 8 this year and is really catching Reds fever. He has been asking about going down to more games so I suspect I'll be at the ballyard a few more times than I have been in the past 5-10 season.

My prediction for the Reds is that they will win 90 games this season.

Go Reds!

GL



Old Red Guard
YR RZ Act Ptgh Delta
-- -- ---- ---- -----
11 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=88209) 89.1, 79, 83 (+ 10.1)
10 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=80997) 83.3, 91, 92 (- 7.7)
09 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=74750) 79.0, 78, 76 (+ 1.0)
08 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=66421) 81.6, 74, 72 (+ 7.6)
07 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=55913) 81.4, 72, 75 (+ 9.2)
06 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=44503) 76.7, 80, 76 (- 3.3)
05 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=33108) 84.7, 73, 75 (+ 11.7)
04 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=21619) 76.8, 76, 67 (+ 0.8)
03 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9414) 87.9, 69, 63 (+ 18.9)
02 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4202) 79.7, 75, 75 (+ 4.7)

Sundeck
YR RZ Act Ptgh Delta
-- -- ---- ---- -----
11 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=88262) 88.6, 79, 83 (+ 9.6)
10 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=80999) 84.6, 91, 92 (- 6.4)
09 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=74617) 82.7, 78, 76 (+ 4.7)
08 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1591907&postcount=67) 85.1, 74, 72 (+ 11.1)

WildcatFan
03-30-2012, 12:11 PM
91 wins.

dabvu2498
03-30-2012, 12:16 PM
88

RedsManRick
03-30-2012, 12:16 PM
89 wins

mbgrayson
03-30-2012, 12:19 PM
86 wins....

hebroncougar
03-30-2012, 12:27 PM
78

wally post
03-30-2012, 12:29 PM
87 wins.

I hope my guess falls short!

OnBaseMachine
03-30-2012, 12:37 PM
91 Wins

thatcoolguy_22
03-30-2012, 12:41 PM
87

RedsBaron
03-30-2012, 12:45 PM
93 wins

bucksfan2
03-30-2012, 12:52 PM
90

MikeThierry
03-30-2012, 12:54 PM
85

RichRed
03-30-2012, 12:55 PM
88 wins.

CySeymour
03-30-2012, 12:56 PM
86

oneupper
03-30-2012, 12:59 PM
79 Wins :(

UKFlounder
03-30-2012, 01:00 PM
80 wins

1990REDS
03-30-2012, 01:14 PM
81

Homer Bailey
03-30-2012, 01:29 PM
91 wins.

pedro
03-30-2012, 01:38 PM
93 Wins

What can I say? I'm an optimist

cumberlandreds
03-30-2012, 01:47 PM
91 wins

I was hoping you were going to do this today. I will be away for a few days and won't be able to post. Thanks! I got mine in before the deadline.

New Fever
03-30-2012, 01:54 PM
94 wins

Edd Roush
03-30-2012, 01:55 PM
90 wins.

TheBurn
03-30-2012, 02:07 PM
92 W's

LoganBuck
03-30-2012, 02:46 PM
Reds 89 wins

St. Louis 0-162

AmarilloRed
03-30-2012, 02:57 PM
88 Wins.

Red Rover
03-30-2012, 03:01 PM
86 Wins

Caveat Emperor
03-30-2012, 03:03 PM
83 wins.

reds44
03-30-2012, 03:13 PM
92.

Reds Fanatic
03-30-2012, 03:14 PM
89 wins

Scrap Irony
03-30-2012, 03:21 PM
91 wins.

(Done by blindly pecking at numbers.)

_Sir_Charles_
03-30-2012, 03:31 PM
102 W's

Patrick Bateman
03-30-2012, 03:32 PM
92 wins

REDREAD
03-30-2012, 03:33 PM
88 wins.

OesterPoster
03-30-2012, 03:40 PM
92 wins.

brad1176
03-30-2012, 03:43 PM
87 wins

CarolinaRedleg
03-30-2012, 03:56 PM
92 wins.

BuckeyeRedleg
03-30-2012, 04:11 PM
85-77

I admit my outlook has been dampened with the loss of Madson.

MrCinatit
03-30-2012, 04:23 PM
83

kbrake
03-30-2012, 04:29 PM
94.

Redhook
03-30-2012, 04:50 PM
A disappointing 87 wins.

vic715
03-30-2012, 05:00 PM
84

I just fear that Cueto and Latos will both have down time this year.Bailey must step it up and Bruce must find consistancy.Hopefully I'm wrong on Cueto and Latos.I still think they overpaid for Latos.

Cyclone792
03-30-2012, 05:09 PM
86

Quatitos
03-30-2012, 05:27 PM
91

VottoFan54
03-30-2012, 05:53 PM
91 wins

MississippiRed
03-30-2012, 06:15 PM
89 wins (I hope that is enough for the playoffs!)

dfs
03-30-2012, 06:46 PM
Lord I hope I'm wrong.

72

There are just too many things on the edge of going wrong.

RANDY IN INDY
03-30-2012, 06:49 PM
87 wins

mth123
03-30-2012, 07:35 PM
92 Wins.

Love these threads and this is the first year where I'm fairly optimistic.

Best top to bottom pitching staff that this team has had since the early 60s IMO. No turds on this staff. Latos, Cueto, Arroyo, Bailey and Leake will provide solid starting pitching on a daily basis (of course there will be stinkers here and there but no one spot where its consistently awful) and the bullpen, even w/o Madson, may be in the top 2 or 3 in the NL. Ryan Ludwick regains his HR stroke with all his Fly Balls and GABP becoming the perfect marriage and the middle of the order will be more formidable than any time in recent memory.

The only guys who I have a bad feeling about performance wise are Rolen and Stubbs, but others (Heisey and Francisco) will make those positions fairly productive anyway. Bailey will perform, but I'm still a skeptic on his health. Francis and Chapman will fill in nicely and Chapman added to the pen late in the year will allow the Reds to run a series of nasty pitchers out there game after game come play-off time, much in the way Texas and St. Louis did last year. Could be a big year in Cincy. I'm hopeful as long as most guys stay healthy.

redsmetz
03-30-2012, 07:41 PM
89 wins

membengal
03-30-2012, 07:42 PM
78 wins.

SirFelixCat
03-30-2012, 07:52 PM
I'm saying 91 wins.


Wife (doesn't quite count) says 92.

edabbs44
03-30-2012, 07:57 PM
87

redsfaninbsg
03-30-2012, 09:22 PM
90-72, NL Central Champions

Az Red
03-31-2012, 09:14 AM
94

Boss-Hog
03-31-2012, 09:30 AM
89 wins

Caseyfan21
03-31-2012, 11:53 AM
86

FlightRick
03-31-2012, 12:08 PM
88 wins. Probably end up closer to the division win than to the new fangled 2nd wild card.

Always Red
03-31-2012, 12:27 PM
80 wins

prediction: pitching again disappoints.

Raisor
03-31-2012, 12:31 PM
88 wins

marcshoe
03-31-2012, 12:36 PM
92 wins after a slow start.

Degenerate39
03-31-2012, 12:48 PM
95

Johnny Footstool
03-31-2012, 01:14 PM
94 wins

cincrazy
03-31-2012, 01:34 PM
93 wins.

Reds/Flyers Fan
03-31-2012, 01:41 PM
80 wins

The Voice of IH
03-31-2012, 04:33 PM
86 wins

Ron Madden
03-31-2012, 04:47 PM
I'm going with 86 wins..

11larkin11
03-31-2012, 05:11 PM
94

Strikes Out Looking
03-31-2012, 05:32 PM
93 plus 4 plus 4

Ghosts of 1990
03-31-2012, 06:59 PM
92 wins, lose NLCS in six games

Nathan
04-01-2012, 02:10 AM
92.

AtomicDumpling
04-01-2012, 04:49 AM
85 Wins.

yab1112
04-01-2012, 05:02 AM
88 Wins

KronoRed
04-01-2012, 06:07 AM
86.

blumj
04-01-2012, 08:10 AM
92 wins.

Root Down
04-01-2012, 11:03 AM
92 wins.

Joseph
04-01-2012, 07:49 PM
87 is the number that comes to mind.

top6
04-01-2012, 07:57 PM
74

Dan
04-02-2012, 09:32 AM
I'll predict 89 victories this year, sneaking into the 2nd wild-card ahead of Washington and Philly.

elfmanvt07
04-02-2012, 09:41 AM
95

Redsfan320
04-02-2012, 09:43 AM
90, good for 1st in the NLC over the aging Cards and weakened Crew

320

lollipopcurve
04-02-2012, 11:15 AM
88

I think the pitching will have to battle to keep its head above water at times, but the offense will benefit from a better Bruce, which will help Votto, and better production from SS and 3B.

HokieRed
04-02-2012, 11:20 AM
89 and a wild card spot. Pitching fairly solid, better offense from RF, CF, 3B, SS, LF.

redsfan30
04-02-2012, 11:22 AM
89 wins.

*BaseClogger*
04-02-2012, 11:24 AM
86 wins

WebScorpion
04-03-2012, 12:58 AM
Well, I've consulted the OUIJA board, read some bones, and I'm ready to make my prediction:

The 2012 Cincinnati Reds will go 96-66 during the regular season, win the NL Championship, but lose in the World Series in 6 games.

:clap:

Captain Hook
04-03-2012, 09:43 PM
91 wins!!!

powersackers
04-03-2012, 10:30 PM
84 wins

Mes and Cozart hold their own. Latos 4.50 ERA. Rolen 64 Games Started.

RedEye
04-03-2012, 10:47 PM
92-70

IslandRed
04-03-2012, 10:56 PM
92 wins, going with my first instinct before I talk myself into a lower number.

RED VAN HOT
04-04-2012, 12:33 AM
91

westofyou
04-04-2012, 12:51 AM
88

Red in Chicago
04-04-2012, 08:00 AM
87

Roy Tucker
04-04-2012, 08:16 AM
The annual Roy wildly optimistic estimate is 102 wins.

Hey, someone has the be the outlier ;)

_Sir_Charles_
04-04-2012, 08:21 AM
The annual Roy wildly optimistic estimate is 102 wins.

Hey, someone has the be the outlier ;)

Join the club Roy. :O)

RedlegJake
04-04-2012, 01:09 PM
91 wins

PickOff
04-04-2012, 01:21 PM
94 wins

Playadlc
04-04-2012, 05:45 PM
91 wins.

We beat LAA in the World Series and Joey wins NL MVP again.

This is the year, guys. This is the year.

paintmered
04-04-2012, 06:35 PM
92 wins for me based on nothing more than a one of Dusty's gut feelings.

alloverjr
04-04-2012, 09:24 PM
Going with 84 wins.

UK and the Reds can't win in the same year.

Crosley68
04-04-2012, 11:28 PM
90 for me.

BoydsOfSummer
04-04-2012, 11:45 PM
90 Wins

wheels
04-04-2012, 11:47 PM
Going with 89.

Hoosier Red
04-05-2012, 12:02 AM
92

oregonred
04-05-2012, 12:12 AM
86-76. Slow start but good second half. Just missing the playoffs...

VR
04-05-2012, 12:17 AM
94

Kc61
04-05-2012, 08:49 AM
I'll go with 86 wins, second place, possible wild card.

Starting pitching will be better, but not sure how much better. Some starters need to come through.

Bullpen will be good with Chapman in there, then Masset's return, perhaps bolstering during the season

Team will still have hitting slumps particularly when facing lots of righty pitching.

Bench so-so. Defense excellent.

Team traded away young depth, may be susceptible to injury this year.

86 wins.

kaldaniels
04-05-2012, 09:47 AM
An even 90.

M2
04-05-2012, 10:07 AM
94

redsfandan
04-05-2012, 04:27 PM
92 wins.

Win the division.

Win the pennant

Lose in 6 games to Pujols and the Angels in the World Series.


Both Votto and Bruce get MVP votes, neither win it.

Both Cozart and Mes get ROY votes, neither win it.

Latos gets CY Young votes.

gonelong
04-06-2012, 11:19 AM
Old Red Guard
YR RZ Act Ptgh Delta
-- -- ---- ---- -----
12 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=94477) 88.9, --, -- (+/- --)
11 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=88209) 89.1, 79, 83 (+ 10.1)
10 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=80997) 83.3, 91, 92 (- 7.7)
09 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=74750) 79.0, 78, 76 (+ 1.0)
08 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=66421) 81.6, 74, 72 (+ 7.6)
07 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=55913) 81.4, 72, 75 (+ 9.2)
06 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=44503) 76.7, 80, 76 (- 3.3)
05 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=33108) 84.7, 73, 75 (+ 11.7)
04 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=21619) 76.8, 76, 67 (+ 0.8)
03 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9414) 87.9, 69, 63 (+ 18.9)
02 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4202) 79.7, 75, 75 (+ 4.7)

Sundeck
YR RZ Act Ptgh Delta
-- -- ---- ---- -----
12 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=94485) ---, --, -- (+/- --)
11 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=88262) 88.6, 79, 83 (+ 9.6)
10 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=80999) 84.6, 91, 92 (- 6.4)
09 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=74617) 82.7, 78, 76 (+ 4.7)
08 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1591907&postcount=67) 85.1, 74, 72 (+ 11.1)

klw
04-06-2012, 08:49 PM
88

westofyou
04-06-2012, 08:54 PM
Time to lock this down