View Full Version : Gonelong's Annual Prediction Thread - Sundeck Style

03-31-2012, 09:54 AM
As always, the prediction thread request is simple.

1. Give a number of Wins you project for the Reds 2011 season.
2. Make the prediction as honestly as you can. It's a prediction, not a hope. (Please, no 162-0 "predictions")
3. Feel free to wait for opening day to make your prediction. I'll not honor any changes in you guestimate, too much work.
4. Place your Number of expected wins at the beginning of the post and then any commentary below. This makes it easier to go back and count.

It's tORG vs. Sundeck. Sundeck is on a two-year winning streak. I see no reason why we shouldn't go ahead and make it a trifecta. Rules are simple and above.


A lot of things went wrong last year. History never repeats. I think this team is better than the 2010 squad. Three solid starters and I think one of the remaining two - Bailey and Arroyo - has a big year.
The offense will be fine. No real weak links. I am willing to give Stubbs the benefit of the doubt. After all, it is spring.

03-31-2012, 11:34 AM
With the loss of Madson, and the injuries to Bray and Masset, I'll say 88. Hopefully that's enough for the wild card.

03-31-2012, 11:57 AM

We have a good team, but not great. Will probably deal with injuries a decent amount. However if we are struggling a tiny bit, or are in a close race, I think Walt will try to go after a bat for LF or 3rd.

03-31-2012, 01:32 PM

I agree that they would have been stronger than last year even if minimal changes happened in the offseason. Bruce takes a step forward in consistency and Marshall proves to be a huge asset for us in the pen.

03-31-2012, 01:43 PM

I think that will win the division. Guys are going to have to step up big time(Stubbs, Bruce, Heisey, and Bailey) Limiting the injuries of a season will be huge too(or when they do occur because they will someone can step right in to fill the void). A second half surge from Aroldis and this team ends up in the LCS only to lose in 6 games.

03-31-2012, 01:43 PM

With Madson, would have said 92 or 93.

03-31-2012, 02:22 PM
76 and massive changes

03-31-2012, 05:15 PM

I think the rotation and its depth does wonders for the reds this season, with a few minor problems with the lineup along the way. division winners and we make it to the world series but lose to one of the AL giants (red sox/yanks)

03-31-2012, 05:15 PM

I think the rotation and its depth does wonders for the reds this season, with a few minor problems with the lineup along the way. division winners and we make it to the world series but lose to one of the AL giants (red sox/yanks)

03-31-2012, 05:46 PM
So, TuneSquad, are you saying the Reds are going to win 192 games this year? :)

04-01-2012, 10:03 AM
Hahaha, didnt mean to post that twice ha. But to add on, I think from opening day to the beginning of May will tell if the Reds will play playoff baseball to stay... Nice rhyme huh!

04-01-2012, 12:22 PM
89 wins.

The additions of Latos and Marshall should be enough to put the Reds in the driver's seat to win the division, though losing Madson will make it tough for the Reds to crack the 90 wins plateau.

All things considered, it should be an exciting summer for Reds fans.

04-01-2012, 11:00 PM

04-02-2012, 01:56 AM
93 wins.

In 2010 a lot of things went right on the field. In 2011 the Reds made no effort to improve, add that with a lot of things going wrong on the field and the Cardinals miracle comeback and you have a disappointing season.

I think the Reds now have the pitching with Latos, and with Heisey/Ludwick replacing all of the K's we got from Gomes, and the superior Cozart (NL rookie of the year candidate) at short, our offense will be even better than last year. I also expect Jay Bruce to have a great year, Votto to do slightly better than last year. Stubbs should also bounce back and do better than he did previously, and disastrously last season.This team is much better, with or without Madson, than it was in 2010.

Add that to drama in Milwaukee with Braun and Fielder leaving for the Tigers, and the Cardinals without Pujols, LaRussa, Duncan and possibly Carpenter...that all increases the Reds chances. So I'm predicting 93 wins and an NL Central crown. In the post season they'll barely scrape by and win the final game of the ALDS, but lose in the ALCS.

Here's to hoping I'm right about everything but that last part!

04-02-2012, 02:41 AM
I'll say 85. We're slightly above average in most areas; I imagine our record will reflect that. Things always seem to happen a year late with Cincinnati, and a year will do wonders for figuring out what our rookies and many wild-card players (Bruce, Stubbs, Chapman, Bailey) actually are and addressing those needs in the offseason. Until then, we'll finish 2nd in the division to the Brewers, and miss out on the 5th wild-card by a couple games to the Giants and Nationals.

04-02-2012, 07:28 AM
90 wins

04-02-2012, 08:51 AM
83 wins, the pitching is not there to expect much more than a .500 season.

Who Dey Time
04-02-2012, 09:17 AM
I'll go with 87.

The Reds can and should be in the Central race all season long but, for now, I question whether the back end of our rotation can hold up and how the bullpen holds up without Madsen.

If those two questions can be answered in a positive way, then I'd definitely up my 87 win total and think that the Reds are the team to beat in the Central and maybe the entire NL.

That's why they play the games!

04-02-2012, 10:11 AM

04-02-2012, 11:01 AM
91 wins

Todd Gack
04-02-2012, 12:42 PM

Chris Sabowned
04-02-2012, 03:04 PM

I want to go higher, but Bronson Arroyo and Homer Bailey still make up 40% of our rotation.

04-04-2012, 07:40 AM

Cant Touch This
04-04-2012, 07:42 AM
85. I hope I'm 10 wins short.

04-04-2012, 02:29 PM
In typical Sundeck fashion, we now have two prediction threads going simultaneously. That just means we are gonna beat tORG twice this year. Yes!! :beerme:

04-04-2012, 02:54 PM

94 if Dusty retires to spend more time at his llama farm before the ASB.

04-04-2012, 03:36 PM

Red Raindog
04-04-2012, 04:49 PM

wish I felt better about it

04-07-2012, 09:03 PM
Combining both prediction treads I get 89.0333 for the Sundeck. Anyone want to check my math?

89 or over: Sundeck wins
88 or under: Title goes to the ORG

04-07-2012, 10:42 PM
84 wins.

04-08-2012, 10:23 AM

And everyone will know who Zack Cozart is.