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View Full Version : Fans Speak - Which 5 starters do you want in the rotation?



dougdirt
03-31-2012, 09:22 PM
Simple question.... vote for just five guys.

Kc61
03-31-2012, 09:27 PM
Overly simple.

Nobody will "want" Arroyo after last year, but he will be in the rotation anyway.

dougdirt
03-31-2012, 09:33 PM
I have seen some say they would take Arroyo because of his innings and they expect him to also rebound now that he is healthy.

mth123
03-31-2012, 09:44 PM
I'll take Arroyo and I'd bet he'll be solid.

Kc61
03-31-2012, 09:54 PM
I'll take Arroyo and I'd bet he'll be solid.

Without a lecture about Chapman getting AAA experience, answer one question.

Who would be more effective getting major league hitters out right now. Chapman or Arroyo?

mth123
03-31-2012, 09:57 PM
Without a lecture about Chapman getting AAA experience, answer one question.

Who would be more effective getting major league hitters out right now. Chapman or Arroyo?

For 2 innings? Chapman. For three times through a major league batting order? I'll take Arroyo until Chapman shows he can do it.

Will M
03-31-2012, 09:58 PM
i vote Arroyo to the pen as the long man. he is the Reds 6th best starter right now. eventually he will get his shot as teams almost always use six or seven or eight starters during the year.

Kc61
03-31-2012, 10:03 PM
For 2 innings? Chapman. For three times through a major league batting order? I'll take Arroyo until Chapman shows he can do it.

Arroyo allowed 46 homers last year in about 200 innings. Chapman in 63 innings has allowed 2.

The Reds had an awful rotation last year. Amazing to me how people just want to repeat the same people.

dougdirt
03-31-2012, 10:06 PM
Arroyo allowed 46 homers last year in about 200 innings. Chapman in 63 innings has allowed 2.

The Reds had an awful rotation last year. Amazing to me how people just want to repeat the same people.

As someone who doesn't think Arroyo belongs in the rotation, I will defend him somewhere here.... last year Arroyo wasn't healthy. He doesn't have much velocity to begin with, but he was missing 2-3 MPH from already fringe MLB velocity in 2011. This spring he has been back to his normal 87-90 MPH self. He should bounce back some compared to 2011.

Kc61
03-31-2012, 10:10 PM
As someone who doesn't think Arroyo belongs in the rotation, I will defend him somewhere here.... last year Arroyo wasn't healthy. He doesn't have much velocity to begin with, but he was missing 2-3 MPH from already fringe MLB velocity in 2011. This spring he has been back to his normal 87-90 MPH self. He should bounce back some compared to 2011.

Last year, Arroyo was a batting tee. Yes, this year he should be better than a batting tee.

mth123
03-31-2012, 10:18 PM
Arroyo allowed 40 homers last year in about 200 innings. Chapman in 63 innings has allowed 2.

The Reds had an awful rotation last year. Amazing to me how people just want to repeat the same people.

Arroyo might suck again. I'm guessing his illness last year was a root cause of much of his problems. He won't be a World beater, but he won't be 2011 Volquez bad either.

If you are really worried about the bullpen, the last thing you should be pushing for is a 5 inning starter. Chapman accumulated those numbers out of the bullpen throwing 100+ MPH for an inning or two. He won't be doing that in the rotation. If every relief pitcher could replicate his short stint performance going through the line-up 3 times, why don't guys like Papelbon, Axford and Rivera start? Heck, why not Marshall then? Its because they won't have the same success as a starter. Chapman hasn't even gone through a minor league line-up 3 times on any kind of regular basis. Let him do that while we see how the others do. They can always make a change.

Kc61
03-31-2012, 10:35 PM
Arroyo might suck again. I'm guessing his illness last year was a root cause of much of his problems. He won't be a World beater, but he won't be 2011 Volquez bad either.

If you are really worried about the bullpen, the last thing you should be pushing for is a 5 inning starter. Chapman accumulated those numbers out of the bullpen throwing 100+ MPH for an inning or two. He won't be doing that in the rotation. If every relief pitcher could replicate his short stint performance going through the line-up 3 times, why don't guys like Papelbon, Axford and Rivera start? Heck, why not Marshall then? Its because they won't have the same success as a starter. Chapman hasn't even gone through a minor league line-up 3 times on any kind of regular basis. Let him do that while we see how the others do. They can always make a change.

As a fifth starter, I expect six strong innings from Chapman. I think he can do that consistently. He's pitched five or six innings stints in the minors as a starter, in his previous life in Cuba, and for the Reds this spring.

Chapman has a golden arm. I want it on the Reds.

Last year the team had lousy starting pitchers. You are hoping these same guys will suddenly be good enough to compete. I think it is a major longshot.

mth123
03-31-2012, 10:42 PM
As a fifth starter, I expect six strong innings from Chapman. I think he can do that consistently. He's pitched five or six innings stints in the minors as a starter, in his previous life in Cuba, and for the Reds this spring.

Chapman has a golden arm. I want it on the Reds.

Last year the team had lousy starting pitchers. You are hoping these same guys will suddenly be good enough to compete. I think it is a major longshot.

Not the same really. They should have Cueto for 185 to 200 innings instead of the 150ish he threw last year. Leake has an innings base under him now and is a year older. The gloves should be off and he should throw 200 innings now. Arroyo is healthy, has regained a couple MPH on his fastball and I look for a bounce back. Latos is coming over as the team's best guy and replacing the one who was the worst guy last season. Bailey was pretty decent last year when he was healthy. I'm still skeptical of his shoulder, but until it sidelines him, he's solid and improving. Long term, I think there is a good chance that Chapman may be better than all of them, but for April of 2012, I think these other guys are ahead of him.

BTW, Volquez had a golden arm too.

dougdirt
03-31-2012, 10:46 PM
As a fifth starter, I expect six strong innings from Chapman. I think he can do that consistently. He's pitched five or six innings stints in the minors as a starter, in his previous life in Cuba, and for the Reds this spring.

Chapman has a golden arm. I want it on the Reds.

Last year the team had lousy starting pitchers. You are hoping these same guys will suddenly be good enough to compete. I think it is a major longshot.

These same guys? Mat Latos is replacing whatever the #5 spot was last year. The Reds added a legit #1 starter.

Kc61
03-31-2012, 10:49 PM
Not the same really. They should have Cueto for 185 to 200 innings instead of the 150ish he threw last year. Leake has an innings base under him now and is a year older. The gloves should be off and he should throw 200 innings now. Arroyo is healthy, has regained a couple MPH on his fastball and I look for a bounce back. Latos is coming over as the team's best guy and replacing the one who was the worst guy last season. Bailey was pretty decent last year when he was healthy. I'm still skeptical of his shoulder, but until it sidelines him, he's solid and improving. Long term, i think there is a good chance that Chapman may be better than all of them, but for April of 2012, I think these other guys are ahead of him.

So, according to this, with the acquisition of one new starter, this horrendous staff is suddenly a pennant winner.

Arroyo's 46 homers allowed will suddenly normalize. He's now up to 88 MPH, the NL is quaking in its boots.

Homer has never beat 4.40 or so, suddenly he's a sub 4 ERA pitcher.

Cueto and Leake suddenly are even better.

That's not real life, it's a dream.

I'm done arguing. Give me Aroldis in this rotation. I'll take great stuff over dreams.

Kc61
03-31-2012, 10:53 PM
These same guys? Mat Latos is replacing whatever the #5 spot was last year. The Reds added a legit #1 starter.

The two guys in question, Arroyo and Bailey, are the same guys. They are the ones being discussed.

mth123
03-31-2012, 10:55 PM
So, according to this, with the acquisition of one new starter, this horrendous staff is suddenly a pennant winner.

Arroyo's 46 homers allowed will suddenly normalize. He's now up to 88 MPH, the NL is quaking in its boots.

Homer has never beat 4.40 or so, suddenly he's a sub 4 ERA pitcher.

Cueto and Leake suddenly are even better.

That's not real life, it's a dream.

I'm done arguing. Give me Aroldis in this rotation. I'll take great stuff over dreams.

Well, Cueto missed the first 6 weeks last year while Volquez and Wood were burning up the pen. Leake was limited because of his age and lack of innings base. If they are the same and can both add 30 innings that went to the turds last season, that should improve the rotation (and the pen). I guess Arroyo never had Mono and was never successful with his soft stuff in the past and subbing a strong number 2 for one of the worst pitchers in the league shouldn't help much.

Kc61
03-31-2012, 11:02 PM
Well, Cueto missed the first 6 weeks last year while Volquez and Wood were burning up the pen. Leake was limited because of his age and lack of innings base. If they are the same and can both add 30 innings that went to the turds last season, that should improve the rotation (and the pen). I guess Arroyo never had Mono and was never successful with his soft stuff in the past and subbing a strong number 2 for one of the worst pitchers in the league shouldn't help much.

If it weren't for Arroyo's contract, he would be in spring training somewhere as a non-roster signee. He had a monumentally bad season. He allowed 46 home runs. That is not a small statistic. 46 home runs in one year.

We're talking about winning a pennant here. You don't do it hoping some guy who allowed 46 homers has recovered from mono. You do it with arms like Latos'. And Chapman's.

dougdirt
03-31-2012, 11:04 PM
The two guys in question, Arroyo and Bailey, are the same guys. They are the ones being discussed.

They are the same guys, but I wouldn't expect the results to be the same for either guy. Bailey's peripherals far out performed his ERA. Arroyo's mono issues were clearly causing problems for him last year. I don't have much faith in Arroyo either way, but a 4.50 ERA is a whole lot better than a 5.07 ERA.

dougdirt
03-31-2012, 11:10 PM
Last season, Bailey, Cueto and Latos were among the 21 starters with the best sliders in baseball. If Chapman joins them in the rotation, they could arguably have 4 of the best 20 sliders in baseball (for starters).

Kc61
03-31-2012, 11:10 PM
They are the same guys, but I wouldn't expect the results to be the same for either guy. Bailey's peripherals far out performed his ERA. Arroyo's mono issues were clearly causing problems for him last year. I don't have much faith in Arroyo either way, but a 4.50 ERA is a whole lot better than a 5.07 ERA.

Expect away. I see a poor starting staff that added one great arm, Latos. I think they can add another top arm. He is sitting in the clubhouse. His name is Aroldis.

dougdirt
03-31-2012, 11:13 PM
Expect away. I see a poor starting staff that added one great arm, Latos. I think they can add another top arm. He is sitting in the clubhouse. His name is Aroldis.

I find it interesting that you think Aroldis could be a top arm, but have Bailey tossed aside. Aroldis has a better arm, but Bailey is probably the better pitcher of the two.

757690
03-31-2012, 11:22 PM
Arroyo's 46 homers allowed will suddenly normalize. He's now up to 88 MPH, the NL is quaking in its boots.

Since 2007, Arroyo has not averaged better than 88 MPH on his fastball, until last season.

For the poll I answered the top five: Latos, Cueto, Arroyo, Leake and Bailey, but I'd keep Bailey on a short leash. I'm willing to give him a shot to prove that he truely has turned the corner and matured into an actual, not potential starting pitcher, but he has to prove it, to keep his spot.

Kc61
03-31-2012, 11:25 PM
I find it interesting that you think Aroldis could be a top arm, but have Bailey tossed aside. Aroldis has a better arm, but Bailey is probably the better pitcher of the two.

I prefer Chapman who, I believe, is that rare pitcher who is very, very difficult to hit. He misses so many bats, gives up so few hits, almost never a home run. I think he has a rare arm. His control needs to improve.

Bailey may be more advanced but he isn't better in my view. His control is better, but he misses fewer bats and gives up a lot of hits. I expected more.

Bailey could work out eventually, but I don't see an all-star type pitcher. Aroldis could be one.

As for the Reds rotation, I would have no problem including both if there was room. Unfortunately, it seems as if there isn't room because of Arroyo's contract.

Scrap Irony
03-31-2012, 11:47 PM
So, according to this, with the acquisition of one new starter, this horrendous staff is suddenly a pennant winner.

Arroyo's 46 homers allowed will suddenly normalize. He's now up to 88 MPH, the NL is quaking in its boots.

Homer has never beat 4.40 or so, suddenly he's a sub 4 ERA pitcher.

Cueto and Leake suddenly are even better.

That's not real life, it's a dream.

I'm done arguing. Give me Aroldis in this rotation. I'll take great stuff over dreams.

1. If you replace the worst the team had with a true ace, it's worth an absolute ton of wins. Latos' value, to the Reds, could be as high as seven wins over last season.
2. No one's said Cueto is better than his 2010. In fact, most have said he's going to be worse.
3. Leake is likely to be better because that's generally what good young pitchers do. Seven of the nine best comps for his career so far became All-Star pitchers.
4. Homer, if healthy, will likely put up better numbers than did the fourth starter (Bailey and his counterparts) last season-- ERA, be darned.
5. Arroyo's been hashed and re-hashed again and again. (At this point, so has Bailey.) With the added mph on his fastball, Arroyo's razor thin edge gets a bit easier to deal with. Tons of innings at slightly better than league average is of great value.

This isn't to say I want these five in the rotation-- I'd go with Arroyo as the closer and roll with Chapman as my fifth guy, banking on Chapman's golden arm shining through. The inning shortfall (and there would be some of that) could be taken care of by middle relief. (The assumption here is that Cincinnati would need at least three more relievers stashed at Louisville in case of two or three struggling starts in a row.)

marcshoe
04-01-2012, 12:22 AM
I accidentally hit submit before I selected five players but Arroyo's my odd man out too. I' ve defended him in years past but he's getting older. I think his days as a useful starter may be past.

vic715
04-01-2012, 03:30 AM
Does Francis fit in anywhere?He was my other.I left out Arroyo and Bailey and those guys are pretty decent.

AtomicDumpling
04-01-2012, 04:04 AM
The only reason Arroyo is in the rotation is his salary, not because he eats innings nor because he supposedly is a bounce-back candidate. His peripherals have been bad for years, even before the mononucleosis. If innings need to be eaten the Reds have better pitchers to eat them.

I would be happier with Sam LeCure in the rotation than Arroyo. I realize the Reds have not stretched out LeCure to start games this spring, but if I were in charge I would have. I would also rather have Francis than Arroyo. Francis is not good, but he is better than Arroyo. Francis had the better SIERA last year and for the last three years combined. Arroyo was dead last in the major leagues in FIP last year by a wide margin.

The Reds 8 best starters in order are Latos, Cueto, Leake, Bailey, Chapman, LeCure, Francis and Arroyo.

Degenerate39
04-01-2012, 08:46 AM
1. Cueto
2. Latos
3. Leake
4. Bailey
5. Chapman

RANDY IN INDY
04-01-2012, 08:52 AM
For 2 innings? Chapman. For three times through a major league batting order? I'll take Arroyo until Chapman shows he can do it.

:beerme:

RANDY IN INDY
04-01-2012, 08:55 AM
Not the same really. They should have Cueto for 185 to 200 innings instead of the 150ish he threw last year. Leake has an innings base under him now and is a year older. The gloves should be off and he should throw 200 innings now. Arroyo is healthy, has regained a couple MPH on his fastball and I look for a bounce back. Latos is coming over as the team's best guy and replacing the one who was the worst guy last season. Bailey was pretty decent last year when he was healthy. I'm still skeptical of his shoulder, but until it sidelines him, he's solid and improving. Long term, I think there is a good chance that Chapman may be better than all of them, but for April of 2012, I think these other guys are ahead of him.

BTW, Volquez had a golden arm too.

Gotta throw strikes.

REDREAD
04-02-2012, 05:37 PM
I dunno.. Let's put Arroyo's salary aside for a minute. Let's pretend the Reds could cut him right now and there's no financial hit.

I imagine some posters would do just that.

IMO, it's worth giving both Homer and Arroyo 4-6 weeks at the start of the season to see what results they give us. I actually voted for Chapman over Homer in the poll, but I think I have changed my mind.

Give Homer and Arroyo the nod to start the season. If they don't produce, then consider yanking them out of the rotation. Both have something to prove, IMO.

I agree that Homer has nice peripherals, but at some point, he needs to translate that into results. Historically, he seems to pepper in enough bad innings that it really subverts his overall season.. He needs to pull it together and pitch up to his potential.

redsfandan
08-18-2012, 02:11 PM
So, according to this, with the acquisition of one new starter, this horrendous staff is suddenly a pennant winner.

Arroyo's 46 homers allowed will suddenly normalize. He's now up to 88 MPH, the NL is quaking in its boots.

Homer has never beat 4.40 or so, suddenly he's a sub 4 ERA pitcher.

Cueto and Leake suddenly are even better.

That's not real life, it's a dream.

I'm done arguing. Give me Aroldis in this rotation. I'll take great stuff over dreams.

It's interesting to look back at a thread like this. Arroyo has been alot better this year and we've received more from Cueto and Bailey too. Add in how good Latos has been lately and, imo, the biggest disappointment has been Leake (who is still only 24).

It's just funny how some people were SO down on Arroyo but wanted Chapman in the rotation (but don't now).

The Voice of IH
08-18-2012, 02:38 PM
It's interesting to look back at a thread like this. Arroyo has been alot better this year and we've received more from Cueto and Bailey too. Add in how good Latos has been lately and, imo, the biggest disappointment has been Leake (who is still only 24).

It's just funny how some people were SO down on Arroyo but wanted Chapman in the rotation (but don't now).

If you take away the San Diego game, does Mike Leake's ERA fall into the high 3s?

EDIT: It makes it 4.01, yes kind of a disappointment.